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VIOLENT SOCIAL UNREST IN EUROPE

VIOLENT SOCIAL UNREST IN EUROPE

by Frances Labossiere, Zhan Su, Permpoon Rojanasakul, Rebeca Orozco

European Business Context

Dr. Michael Mcdermott

University of Glasgow

Glasgow, Scotland

May 10th, 2019

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Introduction

The following paper will provide an analysis of Europe’s remarkable increase in massive

civil protests and rioting during the last decade, mainly due to the generalized spread of social

unrest over a wide range of topics such as labour policies, austerity measures, migration and

environmental concerns. This widespread resurgence of social unrest across European countries

shares a common theme of demands for alternative socioeconomic policies, due to a vast

opposition against the perceived unfairness of resource distribution amongst the working classes,

in addition to a general lack of decent wages and employment opportunities. This paper will

attempt to dissect both the causes for the aforementioned social discontent, as well as the direct

economic impact that is generated by violent mass protests and urban riots in Europe’s major

economies nowadays.

Roots of social discontent

The overall causes of violent social unrest in Europe are thought to be due to: inadequate

labour laws, unemployment rates, as well governments choosing to raise oil tax prices in order to

engage in environmental trends meant to lower fuel emissions, all of which eventually evolved

into citizens being angered about the overall high cost and low quality standards of European

life. These determinants of social unrest commonly highlight concerns over mostly labor related

issues throughout European countries, and it is important to note that civil discontent especially

tends to evolve into violent protests when touching upon the topic of unchanging labour

scenario; as such, social unrest over these issues easily gains momentum in many major
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European economies these days, and it is very dangerous since massive strikes and rioting takes

a direct toll in these countries’ economic profits, affecting the values of commodities, imports,

exports and GDP in the worst cases.

Labor related social unrest

The geographical spread of labor unrest in the last decade seems to have evolved into a

trend which touches upon almost all of the major European economies, ultimately affecting both

new and old working classes. Statistics seem to indicate that ever since the last economic crisis,

wage and working conditions have considerably deteriorated in many of the aforementioned

economies (especially affecting the public sector), which in addition to increased unemployment

rates and strict austerity measures undertaken by several European countries, seem to have

triggered the start of a new cycle of social protests beginning from 2010 approximately.

(Quaranta, 2015).

There seems to be a clear correlation between social instability or civil discontent and fiscal

policies advocating budget cuts, especially when it affects the public sector workers who already

have witnesses a decline from pay rates throughout their life. Expenditure cuts seem to have an

intense impact on the population, perhaps even more than tax increments (unless it’s in the case

of France’s recent discontent with rising fuel taxes), and a generalized discontent can be

perceived amongst varied demographic groups across European countries. Fiscal policy in

Europe has been an ongoing topic of debate, especially after the recession period which affected
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almost all of the major economies, since stabilizing measures seem to be weak and insufficient

when addressing the sheer budget imbalance on most countries.

One must definitively take into consideration that not every economy is the same, some may be

better equipped to handle budget cuts due to their particular political or financial characteristics

(such as their overall national debt), while others might react quite negatively to austerity

measures by increasing the frequency of riots, general strikes and antigovernment protests right

away.

As a direct consequence of civil discontent, on top of the massive strikes undertaken by certain

unions, urban riots arising all across Europe by young and older protesters keep gaining

momentum and seem to grow more violent as well, generating economic losses due to the sheer

criminal destruction to businesses and infrastructure. While there is certainly a grave economic

impact originated by escalating strike activity in sectors such the service one, there is also a

considerable risk of diminished tourism and small-business destruction due to violent riots in key

European cities such as Paris, where ongoing protests threaten to discourage tourists from

traveling.

Labor regional disparities

There is also the matter of perceived economic segregation originating social unrest

nowadays, and this ties directly with the migration factor: certain age groups are especially more

prone to undertake the stance of protesting against the influx of foreigners, believing
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employment and wage decline is due to the high indices of immigrants cohabiting amongst them,

which is certainly true in more provincial or rural areas where ethnocultural disparities among

communities are most evident.

Also, in terms of the mobilization of rural workers towards urban areas in order to protest against

unemployment and low living standards, we must take into account that most European countries

tend to group older age groups of workers in these regions. As such, this frustrated workforce is

very different from the youth movements protesting against lack of proper employment

opportunities for their age groups. Rural labour markets tend to suffer particularly when they are

dependent on agricultural or foresting activities, which is their main driver for consolidating

unionized strikes or engaging in mass protests on urban/metropolitan areas where they can force

the rest of the country to acknowledge their demands.

Age demographics also play an important role in social unrest in terms of concern about a lack of

adequate social security for the working masses: not only is there insufficient insurance coverage

in most European countries, but there is also the fact that pension policies keep pushing the

retirement age back constantly, which generates an immense sense of injustice and unfairness

amongst older workers.

Identified notable cases

Amongst the notable cases of civilian social unrest in Europe, it’s the Gilet Jaunes violent

protests occurring in major cities across major cities in France (and most prominently Paris)
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which have caused the most concern recently. As of very recently there is the case of the May 1st

violent protests of the anti-capitalist/anarchist group called “Black Bloc” that joined the Gilet

Jaunes movement, which has been going on for every weekend since November 17, 2018.

Degree of civilian participation

The majority of the Gilet Jaunes protestors come from the rural French working class.

They are more prominently white men. "The movement is not related to any political party or

trade union but is supported by French public opinion" (Breakdown of public opinion on the

'yellow vests' movement in France from November 2018 to March 2019, 2019).

Locations

In the case of the Gilet Jaunes movement, violent protests occur in every major city in

France including: Paris, Montpellier, Monaco, Nice, Toulouse, Lyon, Saint-Etienne, and

Marseille. Continuously in Paris and more specifically the more upscale streets of Paris such as

the Champs Elysees where the luxury goods stores are located. Although the demographics of

the protestors are from rural France, they travel to the larger cities on the weekends to protest.

Numbers involved

It has been revealed that the death toll due to the Gilet Jaunes protests is at least 110

people” (Opinion: Why the yellow vests are accountable for over 100 deaths in France, 2019)

Based on recent news from violent protests regarding the May day parade in France, "the worst

confrontations were in Paris, where riot police fired teargas and sting-ball grenades as a 40,000-
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strong crowd, included gilets jaunes (yellow vests) protesters and an estimated 2,000 masked and

hooded “black bloc” activists, marched from Montparnasse station to Place d’Italie" (Henley

2019).

Based on statistics, surveys have revealed that "the percentage of respondents declaring they

supported the movement decreased from 51 percent on November 6th to 25 percent on March

2019" (Breakdown of public opinion on the 'yellow vests' movement in France from November

2018 to March 2019, 2019). These two statistics counteract each other as one say that the

numbers have fallen, however the fact that Gilet Jaunes is still rampant on recent news reveal

that regardless of the numbers, it is the message they reveal on the media that expresses that

violent protests in France are still in full fledge.

Scale of Violence

Gilet Jaunes protests have scaled from damaging small businesses’ store property and

vandalism of historical monuments such as the Arc de Triomphe, to the destruction of personal

properties such as vehicles, and even evolving into a considerable number of caused injuries and

deaths due to the rioting.

Impact on businesses

Due to the protest in France, it has hit French economy hard, especially on tourism

industry such as hotel and flight, and retailers such as high-street stores. According to Le Marie,

he pointed that “sector revenues has been hit by between 15% and 50%” News Wires 2018). In
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order to see the how Gilets Jaunes impact on the French business in detail, we selected three

companies which are Air France KLM, Fnac Darity and Richemont. Due to the protests in

France, many tourists worried about their safety and decided to cancel their trip in France at the

last minute. As what Gupta (2019) reports that the spokeswoman for Air France KLM estimated

that last minute cancellations of bookings that had “occurred as a result of the protests”, and she

said “it started in mid-November but intensified and grew more violent over the course of

December”.

Shops in Champs Elysees were heavily damaged from the violent protests. There is no official

number as to how many businesses are affected but they range from small/medium size cafes,

restaurants, hotels, and boutique shops, to the high end luxury stores such as Chanel, Louis

Vuitton, and Dior. In addition to separate businesses, the French tourism industry has also taken a

toll on the ripple effect of the Gilet Jaunes violent protests. Due to the Gilet Jaunes blocking the

main roads. “The demonstrations announced on Saturday 8 December in Paris do not allow us to

welcome visitors in safe conditions,” said the operator of the Eiffel Tower in a statement on

Thursday. Police have also ordered about a dozen museums, including the Louvre and the Grand

Palais, cultural sites such as the Opera and shops along the Champs-Élysées to close over fears

of violence." (Opinion: Why the yellow vests are accountable for over 100 deaths in France,

2019) As these are main attractions in Paris, their closure due to the Gilet Jaunes protests have

lowered tourism revenue to as low as 2810 million as recent as February 2019 according to

"Trading Economics" data base.

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As the 3rd largest economy in EU, mass violent protests in France is affecting the euro.

Based on the Forex Chart (2019), it shows the trend of EUR/USD exchange rate, and the Euro

dropped to the bottom after November last year after Gliets Jaunes started, which is around 1.12

EUR/USD and remains a steady decline after this. The Euro has achieved to a lower level at

May, which is around 1.11 EUR/USD (Appendix B) and this is because the French economic

surveys at the end of last year, dismayed the markets (BBC 2018). People are pessimistic about

the French market and the Gilets Jaunes continues to make a negative impression.

Migration dimension

In terms of Immigration, there are evidently multiple protests happening within the last

decade in several European countries, which evidently are mostly are anti-immigration.

However, comparing this to other issues regarding political and economic instability, there are
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significantly less damages to both the economy of the host country and casualties in injuries and

loss of life.

Based on our research, the top countries in term of accepting immigrants, asylum seekers and

refugees, are mostly those who have high contribution to EU economy, such as Germany, France,

Italy, and Sweden. However, it is undeniable that the first fortress of Europe, like Hungary, also

counted for high participation (AIDA, 2019). The host countries provide resident areas for

refugees in order to prepare them for cultural integration and work skills for future

implementation (European Union Agency for Fundamental Rights, 2018). The area provided for

resident of asylum seekers are based on two conditions, rural area and region employment rate.

Because immigrants come from Muslim backgrounds, adapting to European cultural context is

difficult for them; hosting them in the highly-populated area may result in conflict. Locating

them remotely from city area and training them for cultural adaptation, as well as labor skills,

before allowing them to face the real-world can lower the friction between them and the locals.

By arranging the refugee camps in the low economy and employment rate also benefit the host

country. This is because in order to arrange and facilitate the camp, it requires a lot of officers

and volunteers. Putting the camps in the mentioned areas generating economic flows as well as

employment on both public and private sectors (Maxmen, 2018).

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There are several cases of social unrests, both started and became violent, regarding immigration

around Europe, such as Chemnitz (Germany), Turku (Finland), and Brussels (Belgium).

However, they evidently have no relationship to the locations of the camps, therefore we can

conclude that the protests and the camp's location are not directly related. Also, economic

contribution or current economic situation of the host country have no influence on the protest

happening either, even though it determines the distribution of refugees in the European Union.

Contribution in EU
per capita Ranking

Billion Euro Contribution (+/-) (in Euro) (per capita)

Germany 29.1 Positive 219 3
Hungary 996m Negative -569 27
Sweden 4.3 Positive 270 2
Austria 2.9 Positive 152 6
Italy 15.9 Positive 85 9
Brussel 5.2 Negative -162 14
Finland 1.9 Positive 154 5
France 21 Positive 114 7

On the other hand, political conditions, including political polar, have the most influences

on the source of these political unrests (BBC, 2019). In Chemnitz, there is political polar

dominance in the area, far-right. This heavily influenced the protest that happened in 2018. As

well as in Belgium, the protest is risen by the political proposition of the government on
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regulation regarding immigrants. Both of the protests were originally peaceful and non-violent

until opposition parties begin to come up against them.

Regardless of violent and political proposition, research suggests that hosting immigrants bring

improvement in terms of local economy. It generates employment in the camp locations, as well

as improves trade especially in the accommodation and retail industry.









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Site Cause People Involved Violent Casualties notes

Anti-Nazi
Germany activist
Suspected civilians against against
immigrants Immigrants Far-right
Chemnitz Counter- 18 people
accused with no support (8000 use this
(Germany) demonstrations injured
justifiable (Anti- far-right and 300 protest as a
Islamic) anti- tool for
demonstration) political
end
Violent
5,500 Belgian
starts when
Brussel Denounce UN Far-right Protestors and
- protestors
(Belgium) Migration Pack supports 1000 Police officers
asked to
counterpart
disperse
300 Far-right
Turku Far-right anti- and 1,000 Counter-
-
(Finland) Fascist counter rally demonstrations
demonstrators

Conclusion


Europe has faced considerable struggles in terms of social unrest spreading across many

of its major economies, either due to labour related issues or new escalating conflicts such as the

migrational influx of recent years. After the recession period which affected pretty much all of

the Eurozone, the rates of unemployment and low wages has touched upon both the young and

old working masses; there is no clear indication that this intense discontent will actually be

properly addressed by fiscal and labor policies in the near future, so we can only predict that this

atmosphere of conflict will only continue to gain momentum unless radical changes are

proposed. Regional economic cooperation measures will also need to be strategized for many
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European countries, since this factor is just as crucial as tax reforms for the future of Europe, as

seen in the example of France’s Gilet Jaunes movement which keeps growing by the day.

There is also the issue of the political factor and its role on the social unrest spreading across

Europe, because when controlling political parties have complete control in many cases, it really

depends on each country’s government whether they properly address internal discontent in

terms of their labor and fiscal policies. We also believe that poor social security will play its part

in continuing to increase social unrest, especially considering the age demographics of the

European working classes, since insufficient coverage and lack of proper employment insurance

appear to be a nearly universal issue across European countries.

The constant incidences of violent protests and rioting only generate direct damages to Europe’s

economic growth, and these socio-political issues must be tackled by finding appropriate and

feasible solutions that can work in a short to medium term preferably. Social justice seems to be

on everyone’s mind nowadays, and Europe needs to find a way to resolve this massive civil

unrest in order to achieve an equitable and sustainable economic growth in the next decade or

else risk facing the consequences due to continuous violent mass protests.



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APPENDIXES

Appendix A

Appendix B