Harold’s Statistics

Probability Density Functions

Cheat Sheet
30 May 2016

PDF Selection Tree to Describe a Single Population

Qualitative Quantitative

Copyright © 2016 by Harold Toomey, WyzAnt Tutor 1

Discrete Probability Density Functions (Qualitative)

Probability Density
Mean Standard Deviation
Function (PDF)

Uniform Discrete Distribution

1 𝑎+𝑏 (𝑏 − 𝑎)2
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = 𝜇= σ=√
𝑏−𝑎+1 2 12
 All outcomes are consecutive.
Conditions  All outcomes are equally likely.
 Not common in nature.
a = minimum
Variables
b = maximum
TI-84 NA
Example Tossing a fair die (n = 6)
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 Probability Density
Mean Standard Deviation
Function (PDF)

Binomial Distribution

𝐵(𝑘; 𝑛, 𝑝) = 𝛔𝒙 = √𝒏𝒑(𝟏 − 𝒑) = √𝑛𝑝𝑞

𝒏 𝝁𝒙 = 𝒏𝒑
𝑷(𝑿 = 𝒌) = ( ) 𝒑𝒌 (𝟏 − 𝒑)𝒏−𝒌 𝑛𝑝 ≥ 10 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝑛𝑞 ≥ 10
𝒌
where 𝒑(𝟏 − 𝒑) 𝑝𝑞
𝑛 𝑛! 𝝁𝒑̂ = 𝒑 𝛔𝒑̂ = √ =√
( ) = 𝑛𝐶𝑘 = 𝒏 𝑛
𝑘 (𝑛 − 𝑘)! 𝑘!
1 1 1 (𝑘−𝑛𝑝)2
−
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑘) ≈ ∙ ∙ 𝑒 2 𝑛𝑝𝑞 Use for large 𝑛 (> 15) to approximate binomial distribution.
√ 𝑛𝑝𝑞 √2𝜋
 n is fixed.
Conditions  The probabilities of success (𝑝) and failure (𝑞) are constant.
 Each trial is independent.
n = fixed number of trials
p = probability that the designated event occurs on a given trial
Variables
(Symmetric if p = 0.5)
𝑋 = Total number of times the event occurs (0 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 𝑛)
For one x value:
[2nd] [DISTR] A:binompdf(n,p,x)

TI-84 For a range of x values [j,k]:

[2nd] [DISTR] A:binompdf( [ENTER] n, p, [↓] [↓] [ENTER] [STO>] [2nd]
[3] (=L3) [ENTER]
[2nd] [LIST] [→→ MATH] 5:sum(L3,j+1,k+1)
Larry’s batting average is 0.260. If he’s at bat four times, what is the
probability that he gets exactly two hits?
Example
Solution:
n = 4, p = 0.26, x = 2
binompdf(4,0.26,2) = 0.2221 = 22.2%
Online PDF Calculator http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

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 Probability Density
Mean Standard Deviation
Function (PDF)

Geometric Distribution

𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥) = 𝑞 𝑥−1 𝑝 = (1 − 𝑝)𝑥−1 𝑝 𝟏 √𝑞 𝟏−𝒑

𝜇 = 𝐸(𝑋) = 𝝈= =√ 𝟐
𝑃(𝑋 > 𝑥) = 𝑞 𝑥 = (1 − 𝑝)𝑥 𝒑 𝑝 𝒑
 A series of independent trials with the same probability of a given
event.
 Probability that it takes a specific amount of trials to get a success.

Can answer two questions:

Conditions a) Probability of getting 1st success on the 𝑛𝑡ℎ trial
b) Probability of getting success on ≤ 𝑛 trials

Since we only count trials until the event occurs the first time, there is
no need to count the 𝑛𝐶𝑥 arrangements, as in the binomial
distribution.
p = probability that the event occurs on a given trial
Variables
𝑋 = # of trials until the event occurs the 1st time
[2nd] [DISTR] E:geometpdf(p, x)
TI-84
[2nd] [DISTR] F:geometcdf(p, x)
Suppose that a car with a bad starter can be started 90% of the time
by turning on the ignition. What is the probability that it will take
three tries to get the car started?
Example
Solution:
p = 0.90, X = 3
geometpdf(0.9, 3) = 0.009 = 0.9%
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 Probability Density
Mean Standard Deviation
Function (PDF)

Poisson Distribution

𝜆𝑥 𝑒 −𝜆
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = , 𝑥 = 0,1,2,3,4, … 𝜇 = 𝐸(𝑋) = 𝜆 𝜎 = √𝜆
𝑥!
 Events occur independently, at some average rate per interval of
Conditions
time/space.
𝜆 = average rate
Variables 𝑋 = total number of times the event occurs
There is no upper limit on 𝑋
[2nd] [DISTR] C:poissonpdf(𝜆, 𝑋)
TI-84
[2nd] [DISTR] D:poissoncdf(𝜆, 𝑋)
Suppose that a household receives, on the average, 9.5 telemarketing
calls per week. We want to find the probability that the household
receives 6 calls this week.
Example
Solution:
𝜆 = 9.5, 𝑋 = 6
poissonpdf(9.5, 6) = 0.0764 = 7.64%
Online PDF Calculator http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/poisson.aspx

Bernoulli
See
tnomial
http://www4.ncsu.edu/~swu6/documents/A-probability-and-
Hypergeometric statistics-cheatsheet.pdf
Negative Binomial

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Continuous Probability Density Functions (Quantitative)

Probability Density
Mean Standard Deviation
Function (PDF)

Normal Distribution
(Gaussian) / Bell Curve

𝒩(𝑥; 𝜇, 𝜎 2 ) =

1 1 𝑥−𝜇 2 𝜇=𝜇 𝜎=𝜎

− ( )
𝛷(𝑥) = 𝑒 2 𝜎
𝜎√2𝜋

Special Case: Standard Normal

𝜇=0 𝜎=1
𝒩(𝑥; 0, 1)
 Symmetric, unbounded, bell-shaped.
Conditions  No data is perfectly normal. Instead, a distribution is approximately
normal.
𝜇 = mean
Variables 𝜎 = standard deviation
𝑥 = observed value
Have scores, need area:
z-scores: [2nd] [DISTR] 1:normalpdf(z, 0, 1)
x-scores: [2nd] [DISTR] 1:normalpdf(x, 𝜇, 𝜎)

Have boundaries, need area:

TI-84 z-scores: [2nd] [DISTR] 2:normalcdf(left-bound, right-bound)
x-scores: [2nd] [DISTR] 2:normalcdf(left-bound, right-bound, 𝜇, 𝜎)

Have area, need boundary:

z-scores: [2nd] [DISTR] 3:invNorm(area to left)
x-scores: [2nd] [DISTR] 3:invNorm(area to left, 𝜇, 𝜎)
Suppose the mean score on the math SAT is 500 and the standard
deviation is 100. What proportion of test takers earn a score between
650 and 700?
Example
Solution:
left-boundary = 650, right boundary =700, μ = 500, σ = 100
normalcdf(650, 700, 500, 100) = 0.0441 = ~4.4%
Online PDF Calculator http://davidmlane.com/normal.html

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Standard Normal Distribution Table: Positive Values (Right Tail) Only
Z +0.00 +0.01 +0.02 +0.03 +0.04 +0.05 +0.06 +0.07 +0.08 +0.09
0.0 0.50000 0.50399 0.50798 0.51197 0.51595 0.51994 0.52392 0.52790 0.53188 0.53586
0.1 0.53980 0.54380 0.54776 0.55172 0.55567 0.55966 0.56360 0.56749 0.57142 0.57535
0.2 0.57930 0.58317 0.58706 0.59095 0.59483 0.59871 0.60257 0.60642 0.61026 0.61409
0.3 0.61791 0.62172 0.62552 0.62930 0.63307 0.63683 0.64058 0.64431 0.64803 0.65173
0.4 0.65542 0.65910 0.66276 0.66640 0.67003 0.67364 0.67724 0.68082 0.68439 0.68793
0.5 0.69146 0.69497 0.69847 0.70194 0.70540 0.70884 0.71226 0.71566 0.71904 0.72240
0.6 0.72575 0.72907 0.73237 0.73565 0.73891 0.74215 0.74537 0.74857 0.75175 0.75490
0.7 0.75804 0.76115 0.76424 0.76730 0.77035 0.77337 0.77637 0.77935 0.78230 0.78524
0.8 0.78814 0.79103 0.79389 0.79673 0.79955 0.80234 0.80511 0.80785 0.81057 0.81327
0.9 0.81594 0.81859 0.82121 0.82381 0.82639 0.82894 0.83147 0.83398 0.83646 0.83891
1.0 0.84134 0.84375 0.84614 0.84849 0.85083 0.85314 0.85543 0.85769 0.85993 0.86214
1.1 0.86433 0.86650 0.86864 0.87076 0.87286 0.87493 0.87698 0.87900 0.88100 0.88298
1.2 0.88493 0.88686 0.88877 0.89065 0.89251 0.89435 0.89617 0.89796 0.89973 0.90147
1.3 0.90320 0.90490 0.90658 0.90824 0.90988 0.91149 0.91308 0.91466 0.91621 0.91774
1.4 0.91924 0.92073 0.92220 0.92364 0.92507 0.92647 0.92785 0.92922 0.93056 0.93189
1.5 0.93319 0.93448 0.93574 0.93699 0.93822 0.93943 0.94062 0.94179 0.94295 0.94408
1.6 0.94520 0.94630 0.94738 0.94845 0.94950 0.95053 0.95154 0.95254 0.95352 0.95449
1.7 0.95543 0.95637 0.95728 0.95818 0.95907 0.95994 0.96080 0.96164 0.96246 0.96327
1.8 0.96407 0.96485 0.96562 0.96638 0.96712 0.96784 0.96856 0.96926 0.96995 0.97062
1.9 0.97128 0.97193 0.97257 0.97320 0.97381 0.97441 0.97500 0.97558 0.97615 0.97670
2.0 0.97725 0.97778 0.97831 0.97882 0.97932 0.97982 0.98030 0.98077 0.98124 0.98169
2.1 0.98214 0.98257 0.98300 0.98341 0.98382 0.98422 0.98461 0.98500 0.98537 0.98574
2.2 0.98610 0.98645 0.98679 0.98713 0.98745 0.98778 0.98809 0.98840 0.98870 0.98899
2.3 0.98928 0.98956 0.98983 0.99010 0.99036 0.99061 0.99086 0.99111 0.99134 0.99158
2.4 0.99180 0.99202 0.99224 0.99245 0.99266 0.99286 0.99305 0.99324 0.99343 0.99361
2.5 0.99379 0.99396 0.99413 0.99430 0.99446 0.99461 0.99477 0.99492 0.99506 0.99520
2.6 0.99534 0.99547 0.99560 0.99573 0.99585 0.99598 0.99609 0.99621 0.99632 0.99643
2.7 0.99653 0.99664 0.99674 0.99683 0.99693 0.99702 0.99711 0.99720 0.99728 0.99736
2.8 0.99744 0.99752 0.99760 0.99767 0.99774 0.99781 0.99788 0.99795 0.99801 0.99807
2.9 0.99813 0.99819 0.99825 0.99831 0.99836 0.99841 0.99846 0.99851 0.99856 0.99861
3.0 0.99865 0.99869 0.99874 0.99878 0.99882 0.99886 0.99889 0.99893 0.99896 0.99900
3.1 0.99903 0.99906 0.99910 0.99913 0.99916 0.99918 0.99921 0.99924 0.99926 0.99929
3.2 0.99931 0.99934 0.99936 0.99938 0.99940 0.99942 0.99944 0.99946 0.99948 0.99950
3.3 0.99952 0.99953 0.99955 0.99957 0.99958 0.99960 0.99961 0.99962 0.99964 0.99965
3.4 0.99966 0.99968 0.99969 0.99970 0.99971 0.99972 0.99973 0.99974 0.99975 0.99976
3.5 0.99977 0.99978 0.99978 0.99979 0.99980 0.99981 0.99981 0.99982 0.99983 0.99983
3.6 0.99984 0.99985 0.99985 0.99986 0.99986 0.99987 0.99987 0.99988 0.99988 0.99989
3.7 0.99989 0.99990 0.99990 0.99990 0.99991 0.99991 0.99992 0.99992 0.99992 0.99992
3.8 0.99993 0.99993 0.99993 0.99994 0.99994 0.99994 0.99994 0.99995 0.99995 0.99995
3.9 0.99995 0.99995 0.99996 0.99996 0.99996 0.99996 0.99996 0.99996 0.99997 0.99997
4.0 0.99997 0.99997 0.99997 0.99997 0.99997 0.99997 0.99998 0.99998 0.99998 0.99998
4.1 0.99998 0.99998 0.99998 0.99998 0.99998 0.99998 0.99998 0.99998 0.99999 0.99999
4.2 0.99999 0.99999 0.99999 0.99999 0.99999 0.99999 0.99999 0.99999 0.99999 1.00000

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 Probability Density
Mean Standard Deviation
Function (PDF)

Student’s t Distribution

This distribution was first studied by William Gosset, who published

under the pseudonym Student.
𝜈 = df = degrees of freedom = 𝑛 − 1

A positive whole number that indicates the lack of restrictions in our

Degrees of Freedom calculations. The number of values in a calculation that we can vary.

e.g. 𝜈 = 𝑑𝑓 = 1 means 1 equation 2 unknowns

lim 𝑡𝑝𝑑𝑓(𝑥, 𝜈) = 𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑝𝑑𝑓(𝑥)
𝜈→∞
𝜈+1 −(𝜈+1)
𝛤( 2 ) 𝑥2 2
𝑃(𝜈) = (1 + ) 𝜇 = 𝐸(𝑥) = 0 (always) 𝜎=0
𝜈 𝜈
√𝜈𝜋 𝛤 (2)
Where the Gamma function
∞ 1
𝛤(𝑛) = (𝑛 − 1)! 𝛤 ( ) = √𝜋
𝛤(𝑠) = ∫ 𝑡 𝑠−1 𝑒 −𝑡 𝑑𝑡 2
0
 Used for inference about means (Use 𝜒 2 for variance).
 Are typically used with small sample sizes or when the population
Conditions
standard deviation isn’t known.
 Similar in shape to normal.
x = observed value
Variables
𝜈 = df = degrees of freedom = 𝑛 − 1
[2nd] [DISTR] 5:tpdf(x, 𝜈)
TI-84
[2nd] [DISTR] 6:tcdf(-∞, t, 𝜈)
Suppose scores on an IQ test are normally distributed, with a
population mean of 100. Suppose 20 people are randomly selected and
tested. The standard deviation in the sample group is 15. What is the
probability that the average test score in the sample group will be at
Example most 110?

Solution:
n=20, df=20-1=19, μ = 100, 𝑥̅ =110, s = 15
tcdf(-1E99, (110-100)/(15/sqrt(20)), 19) = 0.996 = ~99.6%
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 Student’s t Distribution Table:
Cum.
Prob. 𝒕.𝟓𝟎 𝒕.𝟕𝟓 𝒕.𝟖𝟎 𝒕.𝟖𝟓 𝒕.𝟗𝟎 𝒕.𝟗𝟓 𝒕.𝟗𝟕𝟓 𝒕.𝟗𝟗 𝒕.𝟗𝟗𝟓 𝒕.𝟗𝟗𝟗 𝒕.𝟗𝟗𝟗𝟓
1-tail α 0.50 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.025 0.01 0.005 0.001 0.0005
2-tails α 1.00 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.002 0.001
𝜈 = df
1 0.0000 1.0000 1.3764 1.9626 3.0777 6.3138 12.7062 31.8205 63.6567 318.3088 636.6192
2 0.0000 0.8165 1.0607 1.3862 1.8856 2.9200 4.3027 6.9646 9.9248 22.3271 31.5991
3 0.0000 0.7649 0.9785 1.2498 1.6377 2.3534 3.1824 4.5407 5.8409 10.2145 12.9240
4 0.0000 0.7407 0.9410 1.1900 1.5332 2.1318 2.7764 3.7469 4.6041 7.1732 8.6103
5 0.0000 0.7267 0.9195 1.1558 1.4759 2.0150 2.5706 3.3649 4.0321 5.8934 6.8688
6 0.0000 0.7176 0.9057 1.1342 1.4398 1.9432 2.4469 3.1427 3.7074 5.2076 5.9588
7 0.0000 0.7111 0.8960 1.1192 1.4149 1.8946 2.3646 2.9980 3.4995 4.7853 5.4079
8 0.0000 0.7064 0.8888 1.1081 1.3968 1.8595 2.3060 2.8965 3.3554 4.5008 5.0413
9 0.0000 0.7027 0.8834 1.1000 1.3830 1.8331 2.2622 2.8214 3.2498 4.2968 4.7809
10 0.0000 0.6998 0.8791 1.0931 1.3722 1.8125 2.2281 2.7638 3.1693 4.1437 4.5869
11 0.0000 0.6974 0.8755 1.0877 1.3634 1.7959 2.2010 2.7181 3.1058 4.0247 4.4370
12 0.0000 0.6955 0.8726 1.0832 1.3562 1.7823 2.1788 2.6810 3.0545 3.9296 4.3178
13 0.0000 0.6938 0.8702 1.0795 1.3502 1.7709 2.1604 2.6503 3.0123 3.8520 4.2208
14 0.0000 0.6924 0.8681 1.0763 1.3450 1.7613 2.1448 2.6245 2.9768 3.7874 4.1405
15 0.0000 0.6912 0.8662 1.0735 1.3406 1.7531 2.1314 2.6025 2.9467 3.7328 4.0728
16 0.0000 0.6901 0.8647 1.0711 1.3368 1.7459 2.1199 2.5835 2.9208 3.6862 4.0150
17 0.0000 0.689 0.8633 1.0690 1.3334 1.7396 2.1098 2.5669 2.8982 3.6458 3.9651
18 0.0000 0.6884 0.8620 1.0672 1.3304 1.7341 2.1009 2.5524 2.8784 3.6105 3.9216
19 0.0000 0.6876 0.8610 1.0655 1.3277 1.7291 2.0930 2.5395 2.8609 3.5794 3.8834
20 0.0000 0.6870 0.8600 1.0640 1.3253 1.7247 2.0860 2.5280 2.8453 3.5518 3.8495
21 0.0000 0.6864 0.8591 1.0627 1.3232 1.7207 2.0796 2.5176 2.8314 3.5272 3.8193
22 0.0000 0.6858 0.8583 1.0614 1.3212 1.7171 2.0739 2.5083 2.8188 3.5050 3.7921
23 0.0000 0.6853 0.8575 1.0603 1.3195 1.7139 2.0687 2.4999 2.8073 3.4850 3.7676
24 0.0000 0.6848 0.8569 1.0593 1.3178 1.7109 2.0639 2.4922 2.7969 3.4668 3.7454
25 0.0000 0.6844 0.8562 1.0584 1.3163 1.7081 2.0595 2.4851 2.7874 3.4502 3.7251
26 0.0000 0.6840 0.8557 1.0575 1.3150 1.7056 2.0555 2.4786 2.7787 3.4350 3.7066
27 0.0000 0.6837 0.8551 1.0567 1.3137 1.7033 2.0518 2.4727 2.7707 3.4210 3.6896
28 0.0000 0.6834 0.8546 1.0560 1.3125 1.7011 2.0484 2.4671 2.7633 3.4082 3.6739
29 0.0000 0.6830 0.8542 1.0553 1.3114 1.6991 2.0452 2.4620 2.7564 3.3962 3.6594
30 0.0000 0.6828 0.8538 1.0547 1.3104 1.6973 2.0423 2.4573 2.7500 3.3852 3.6460
40 0.0000 0.6807 0.8507 1.0500 1.3031 1.6839 2.0211 2.4233 2.7045 3.3069 3.5510
50 0.0000 0.6794 0.8489 1.0473 1.2987 1.6759 2.0086 2.4033 2.6778 3.2614 3.4960
60 0.0000 0.6786 0.8477 1.0455 1.2958 1.6706 2.0003 2.3901 2.6603 3.2317 3.4602
70 0.0000 0.6780 0.8468 1.0442 1.2938 1.6669 1.9944 2.3808 2.6479 3.2108 3.4350
80 0.0000 0.6776 0.8461 1.0432 1.2922 1.6641 1.9901 2.3739 2.6387 3.1953 3.4163
90 0.0000 0.6772 0.8456 1.0424 1.2910 1.6620 1.9867 2.3685 2.6316 3.1833 3.4019
100 0.0000 0.6770 0.8452 1.0418 1.2901 1.6602 1.9840 2.3642 2.6259 3.1737 3.3905
1000 0.0000 0.6747 0.8420 1.0370 1.2824 1.6464 1.9623 2.3301 2.5808 3.0984 3.3003
∞→z 0.0000 0.6745 0.8416 1.0364 1.2816 1.6449 1.9600 2.3263 2.5758 3.0902 3.2905
0% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95% 98% 99% 99.8% 99.9%
Confidence Level C

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 Probability Density
Mean Standard Deviation
Function (PDF)

Chi-Square Distribution

Skewed-right (above) have fewer values to the right, and median <
mean.
𝜇 = 𝐸(𝑋) = 𝑘
𝜎 2 = √2𝑘
1 𝑘 −𝑥 𝑘+1
( 2 )
𝜒 2 (𝑥, 𝑘) = 𝑘 𝑥 2 −1 𝑒 2
𝜇 = √2𝛤 𝑘+1 2
𝑘 𝑘 2𝛤 ( )
22 𝛤( ) 𝛤 (2 ) 𝜎2 = 𝑘 − 2
2
𝑘 2
𝛤 (2 )
Mode = √𝑘 − 1
 Used for inference about variance in categorical distributions.
 Used when we want to test the independence, homogeneity, and
Conditions
"goodness of fit” to a distribution.
 Used for counted data.
x = observed value
Variables
𝜈 = df = degrees of freedom = 𝑛 − 1
TI-84 [2nd] [DISTR] 7: 𝜒 2 pdf(x, 𝜈)
Example 𝜒 2 pdf() is only used to graph the function.
Online PDF Calculator http://calculator.tutorvista.com/chi-square-calculator.html

Uniform
Log-Normal
Multivariate Normal
F
Exponential See
Gamma http://www4.ncsu.edu/~swu6/documents/A-probability-and-
Inverse Gamma statistics-cheatsheet.pdf

Dirichlet
Beta
Weibull
Pareto

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Continuous Probability Distribution Functions

Cumulative Distribution
Mean Standard Deviation
Function (CDF)
𝑥
If 𝑓(𝑥) = 𝛷(𝑥) (the Normal PDF), then no exact solution is known.
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥) = ∫ 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥
Use z-tables or web calculator (http://davidmlane.com/normal.html).
−∞
∞
The area under the curve is always equal to exactly 1 (100%
∫ 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 = 1
−∞ probability).
𝑥

Integral of PDF = CDF (Distribution) 𝐹(𝑥) = ∫ 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 Use the density function 𝑓(𝑥), not
−∞ the distribution function 𝐹(𝑥), to
𝑑𝐹(𝑥) calculate 𝐸(𝑋), 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) and 𝜎(𝑋).
Derivative of CDF = PDF (Density) 𝑓(𝑥) =
𝑑𝑥
𝑏
Expected Value 𝐸(𝑋) = ∫ 𝑥 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥
𝑎
𝑏
2)
Needed to calculate Variance 𝐸(𝑋 = ∫ 𝑥 2 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥
𝑎

Variance 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) = 𝐸(𝑋 2 ) − 𝐸(𝑋)2

Standard Deviation 𝜎(𝑋) = √𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋)

Copyright © 2016 by Harold Toomey, WyzAnt Tutor 11

Discrete Distributions

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~swu6/documents/A-probability-and-statistics-cheatsheet.pdf

Copyright © 2016 by Harold Toomey, WyzAnt Tutor 12

Continuous Distributions

Copyright © 2016 by Harold Toomey, WyzAnt Tutor 13