3.22 Drought Analysis

3.
22 Drought Analysis
Any pragmatic crop planning needs a thorough understanding of the climatic and in particular, the
rainfall (its variability in the amount, distribution and probability of occurrence), evaporative
demand and air temperature. The rainfall data of 18 years (1998 – 2015) of Agrani River Basin
located in Sangli (Maharashtra) and Belgavi (Karnataka) districts have been statistically analyzed.
90%, 80%, 50% and 10% chance of rainfall in a week as well as the probability of occurrence of
two consecutive dry weeks were predicted. The rainfall data were also analyzed for monthly and
yearly drought estimation for planning of irrigation schemes. The weekly data of rainfall was found
to be more useful for crop planning as well as for water management practice than monthly,
seasonal or annual data.
There are various definitions of drought used in different countries according to the purpose and
area of interest of investigator. The drought estimation was made, considering the following
definitions.
i. Drought month: The month was classified as drought month in which precipitation received was
less than 50 per cent of average monthly rainfall.
ii. Surplus month: The month was classified as surplus month in which precipitation received was
more than twice of average monthly rainfall.
iii. Normal month: The month was classified as normal month in which precipitation received was
in between 50 per cent and 200 per cent of average monthly rainfall.
iv. Drought year: The year was classified as drought year in which precipitation received was less
than or equal to x   , where x is mean annual precipitation and  is standard deviation.
v. Surplus year: The year was classified as surplus year in which precipitation received was more
than or equal to x   .
vi. Normal year: The year was classified as normal year in which precipitation received was x  
, i.e. in between x   and x   .
Weibull’s method: The probability of an event equal to or exceeded is given by the following
formula:
M
Pb 
N 1
Where Pb = Probability (fraction),
M = order number, and

N = length of records
Steps involved in the analysis were tabulation of data, arrangement of data in descending order,
assignment of order number ‘M’ to data; i.e. M = 1 for the highest magnitude and every successive
data in the descending order were assigned 2, 3, 4, . . . and so on till the last event for which M =
N, determination of probability ‘P’ by using Weibull’s equation, plotting values of P on x-axis and
the rainfall amount on y-axis on arithmetic paper, and determination of magnitude of rainfall at
different probability levels.
The probability of occurrence of two consecutive dry weeks were computed by Markov chain
process ( Robertson,1976). Pandarinath (1991) considered less than 20 mm rainfall as dry week.
The general formula for dry spell of n weeks (n consecutive weeks) is given by:
P (D, D,D, ------------------n) = P (D) X P( D/D)n -1
The probability of two consecutive dry weeks is calculated as follows:
P (2D) = P(D) X P (D/D)2

Where P (2D) = Probability of occurrence of two consecutive dry weeks,
P (D) = Probability of the week being dry.
P (D/D)2= Probability of 2nd consecutive dry week given the preceding week being
dry.
4.6 Drought Analysis
Probability and frequency analysis of rainfall data of Agrani watershed has been done on the basis of weekly
rainfall. Study showed that suitable crop planning can be done using rainfall data at 80% probability level.
The data can be utilized for planning cropping pattern and deciding time of different agricultural operations.
From the probability analysis of dry spells for two consecutive weeks, it was found that there is no severity
of drought in the watershed. Analysis for normal, surplus and drought years has also been given which may
be useful for planning of irrigation schemes for the area.
Table 4.40 Monthly Rainfall Value to Classify Drought, Surplus and Normal Month with Average
Rainfall at Agrani Watershed
Average Rainfall Drought (less Surplus (more Normal in

Month (mm) than ) than ) between
January 0 0 0 0
February 0 0 0 0
March 0.14 0.07 0 0
April 0.47 0.23 0 0.38
May 5 2.5 0 4.25
June 18.37 9.18 0 16.45
July 15.81 7.9 0 12.66
August 19.17 9.58 0 18.7
September 30.71 15.35 0 29.59
October 22.41 11.2 0 10.7
November 1.85 0.92 0 0
December 0 0 0 0
Table 4.41 Year Wise Distribution of Number of Months to be Drought, Surplus and Normal at
Agrani Watershed
Drought Normal Surplus
Year Month Month Month Year Sum Avg.
1998 6 6 0 1998 5723.4 15.98
1999 6 6 0 1999 3509.3 9.64
2000 7 5 0 2000 3588.2 9.85
2001 6 6 0 2001 3584 9.84
2002 6 6 0 2002 2495.9 6.83
2003 7 5 0 2003 1810.7 4.97
2004 6 6 0 2004 4601.6 12.64
2005 6 6 0 2005 3192.29 8.77
2006 6 6 0 2006 4445.9 12.21
2007 6 6 0 2007 3862.4 10.61
2008 6 6 0 2008 3089.4 8.48
2009 6 6 0 2009 4181.6 11.48
2010 7 5 0 2010 4552.5 12.5
2011 7 5 0 2011 2645.5 7.2
2012 7 5 0 2012 2439.5 6.7
2013 7 5 0 2013 3479.1 9.55
2014 7 5 0 2014 3979.8 10.93
2015 7 5 0 2015 2680.1 7.36

3.22 Drought Analysis

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3.

Where Pb = Probability (fraction),

M = order number, and

P (D, D,D, ------------------n) = P (D) X P( D/D)n -1

The probability of two consecutive dry weeks is calculated as follows:

P (2D) = P(D) X P (D/D)2

4.6 Drought Analysis

Average Rainfall Drought (less Surplus (more Normal in

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