The Weather and Climate Authority

3
GLOBAL ENSO ADVISORIES
INTERNATIONAL PREDICTION CENTERS SUMMARY
CPC, NOAA/ International • Weak El Nino conditions are present and are expected to
Research Institute (IRI), USA continue through MAM 2019 (~55% chance).
As of :14 February 2019 • ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitori
ng/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)- • El Niño WATCH continues as tropical Pacific shows some
Australia warming; approximately a 50% chance of El Niño developing
As of : 19 February 2019 during MAM 2019, twice the normal likelihood.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ • ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

Tokyo Climate Center/JMA – • El Niño conditions are considered to have persisted in the
Japan equatorial Pacific in January 2019.
As of: 12 February 2019 • They are likely (70%) to continue until JJA2019.
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.
html

APEC Climate Center, • Positive Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies are likely to
Busan, S. Korea remain across most of the tropical Pacific Ocean for February –
As of : 25 January 2019 April 2019, and become weak or return to near average for May
– July 2019

PAGASA: Weak El Niño is present in the tropical Pacific and will

likely to continue until April-May-June 2019 season; varying
impacts may occur.
 SST Ocean Indicator (ONI)
• Sustained warm SST (SSTA of >+0.5)

SST at El Niño Level

Wind Tradewinds 
• Weaker than normal tradewinds resulting to reversal of
windflow in Tropical Pacific (from easterly to westerly)
Tradewinds are weaker (westerly wind anomalies are
evident)
Pressure Atmospheric Indicator (SOI) 
• Sustained negative SOI (SOI of <= -7) At 850-hPa level, westerly wind anomalies were evident across West and Central Africa, and
the far western Pacific. Lower-level wind anomalies were cyclonic in the Mediterranean
region, and anti-cyclonic in southern Indian Ocean.

Trend of SOI towards El Nino threshold

 Equatorial cloudiness near the Date Line typically
Cloudiness Atmospheric Indicator
• Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)
 increases during El Niño (negative OLR anomalies) and
decreases during La Niña (positive OLR anomalies).

OLR Anomaly, January 2019

Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, orange to red shading) were evident over
portions of eastern and northern Philippines; (globally, over Southern Africa, east-central Indian Ocean and
northeastern South America)
Negative OLR anomalies (Precipitation, blue shading) was evident in far western Pacific.
Weekly Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) @ Niño 3.4 Region

EL NIÑO THRESHOLD

NEUTRAL

LA NIÑA THRESHOLD

Data Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook
Updated: 14 February 2019

Weak El Niño conditions are present and are expected to continue through the Northern
Hemisphere spring (Mar-Apr-May) 2019 (~55% chance).

Season La Niña Neutral El Niño

JFM 2019 0% 23% 77%
FMA 2019 1% 34% 65%
MAM 2019 1% 43% 56%
AMJ 2019 3% 47% 50%
MJJ 2019 4% 48% 48%
JJA 2019 8% 49% 43%
JAS 2019 10% 48% 42%
ASO 2019 15% 46% 39%
Based on a consensus of CPC and IRI forecasters. It SON 2019 17% 45% 38%
uses human judgment in addition to model output.
 PAGASA ENSO Alert System Status

• Weak El Niño is present in the Tropical Pacific;

• With this development, the PAGASA ENSO Alert System is now upgraded to
El Niño Advisory.
• Varying impacts may occur.
CLIMATE OUTLOOK
(MARCH – AUGUST 2019 )
 WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT MAY AFFECT THE COUNTRY
DURING THE PERIOD
(MARCH – AUGUST 2019)
Northeast (NE) monsoon – transition – Southwest (SW) Monsoon
Tail end of Cold Front
Local Thunderstorms
Easterlies

Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)

Low Pressure Areas (LPAs)
Ridge of High Pressure Area
Tropical Cyclones
about our
Rainfall
PERCENTAGE (%) RAINFALL CONDITION
Maps..
Less than or = 40 way below normal
41 – 80 below normal
81 – 120 near normal
Greater than 120 above normal
 MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) March 2019
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces likely to

experience:
22 50 8 3
 MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) April 2019
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces likely to

experience:
2 63 18 0
 MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) May 2019
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces likely to

experience:
0 40 43 0
 MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) June 2019
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces likely to

experience:
0 31 52 0
 MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) July 2019
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces likely to

experience:
0 6 50 27
 MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) August 2019
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces likely to

experience:
4 18 44 17
Monthly Rainfall Forecast

Rainfall Condition (based on recent

conditions):
March – August 2019
PROBABILISTIC FORECAST

How certain or
uncertain are we?

Forecasting rainfall in
probabilistic terms is a way of
expressing uncertainty in the
future weather/climate.
 FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal
(MARCH - AUGUST 2019) as of February 20, 2019 (MARCH - AUGUST 2019) as of February 20, 2019
PROVINCE MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST
PROVINCE MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)
AKLAN 43.6 50.4 67.9 82.1 87.1 99.9
ABRA 13.7 51.6 86.0 71.5 171.8 39.0 ANTIQUE 43.9 54.8 74.4 75.7 100.6 101.3
BENGUET 28.3 71.3 84.6 70.4 181.8 46.9 CAPIZ 45.0 50.4 70.1 81.7 82.0 97.9
IFUGAO 43.6 59.0 88.4 80.9 143.5 53.3 GUIMARAS 52.4 61.7 85.9 79.4 111.9 109.6
KALINGA 29.5 54.2 87.5 75.5 144.5 47.5 ILOILO 50.8 58.6 77.4 78.8 95.5 101.5
APAYAO 23.8 48.9 86.4 65.1 178.7 48.0 NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 34.9 60.9 78.7 90.1 103.6 126.0
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 33.8 56.2 87.4 78.0 143.9 47.2 REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
REGION I NEGROS ORIENTAL 40.2 58.9 78.3 94.5 94.3 131.9
BOHOL 50.7 86.7 66.6 94.5 89.8 108.1
ILOCOS NORTE 9.1 23.3 84.8 67.8 189.9 38.9
CEBU 43.7 65.9 65.2 96.7 85.3 124.9
ILOCOS SUR 14.5 51.3 84.6 72.1 164.4 39.6
SIQUIJOR 47.1 66.9 76.8 95.3 85.5 121.4
LA UNION 20.4 69.6 81.9 67.7 178.6 44.3 REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
PANGASINAN 15.1 67.0 77.2 66.2 171.1 57.1 BILIRAN 59.8 67.7 64.2 75.5 104.3 121.9
REGION II EASTERN SAMAR 56.3 56.8 74.0 87.3 97.6 124.1
BATANES 83.8 79.0 82.7 97.5 135.1 34.1 LEYTE 59.7 76.5 64.1 87.0 103.6 121.0
CAGAYAN 36.3 53.3 87.4 68.6 153.7 57.4 NORTHERN SAMAR 59.8 62.3 69.4 75.9 89.7 112.6
ISABELA 52.8 59.7 90.1 87.9 119.2 74.2 SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 61.8 64.2 68.7 78.2 101.9 120.7
NUEVA VIZCAYA 49.2 68.8 88.1 80.2 154.6 67.8 SOUTHERN LEYTE 63.0 75.0 65.1 84.3 101.7 105.6
REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
QUIRINO 69.0 72.2 90.3 90.2 125.2 86.3
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 45.8 74.3 80.1 92.6 82.9 106.2
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 47.9 82.0 82.2 93.2 83.0 108.4
BATAAN 16.3 47.5 65.2 65.1 158.4 66.0 ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 51.2 77.0 83.1 93.1 84.5 108.3
BULACAN 32.1 71.3 82.9 77.8 130.2 72.6 REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
NUEVA ECIJA 27.6 53.0 86.4 79.0 132.8 86.4 BUKIDNON 74.9 76.0 89.9 91.3 93.5 84.2
PAMPANGA 16.3 66.7 74.6 70.5 148.6 72.6 CAMIGUIN 63.1 78.9 78.0 91.0 91.3 102.8
TARLAC 8.7 55.6 75.6 68.4 155.5 72.6 LANAO DEL NORTE 54.2 77.4 81.9 89.8 85.8 102.3
ZAMBALES 9.4 57.1 68.1 63.5 163.9 67.4 MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 45.8 75.1 77.9 91.4 80.5 104.3
AURORA 69.6 76.6 89.9 90.4 112.6 99.0 MISAMIS ORIENTAL 63.8 73.5 84.6 92.6 87.4 95.1
REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
COMPOSTELA VALLEY 74.5 83.3 94.6 96.7 88.5 91.0
METRO MANILA 37.8 63.7 68.8 74.7 150.5 70.8
DAVAO CITY 198.0 82.7 93.7 91.9 82.0 105.9
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) DAVAO DEL NORTE 104.8 82.4 94.3 95.1 89.4 88.8
BATANGAS 24.8 68.7 68.5 76.3 149.2 88.5 DAVAO DEL SUR 188.0 83.8 91.6 85.6 69.5 114.3
CAVITE 16.6 20.1 62.5 71.8 162.6 68.7 DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 111.2 84.9 90.5 82.4 71.1 101.7
LAGUNA 41.8 51.5 71.4 77.2 128.8 86.4 DAVAO ORIENTAL 90.2 84.6 93.1 94.4 85.9 98.7
RIZAL 44.8 63.6 77.4 78.0 128.2 79.8 REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
QUEZON 55.8 58.3 72.3 81.1 103.7 116.2 SOUTH COTABATO 89.9 86.1 88.6 81.9 72.3 103.1
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) COTABATO 128.4 82.7 88.7 88.4 82.7 112.9
SARANGANI 83.3 85.9 89.2 81.0 72.0 97.3
MARINDUQUE 53.7 55.7 67.2 83.0 112.7 124.9
SULTAN KUDARAT 91.4 84.6 87.1 86.3 78.5 113.0
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 33.1 52.0 69.9 76.5 134.4 115.5
REGION XIII- CARAGA
ORIENTAL MINDORO 40.4 54.7 71.2 80.0 127.4 118.4 AGUSAN DEL NORTE 79.5 102.4 84.8 95.6 80.7 108.2
ROMBLON 52.6 56.3 61.9 86.8 107.1 111.4 AGUSAN DEL SUR 77.8 91.9 91.6 98.7 81.7 98.0
PALAWAN 18.8 55.7 75.2 78.1 106.9 133.1 DINAGAT ISLANDS 69.1 78.1 76.8 80.7 91.2 106.1
REGION V (BICOL) SURIGAO DEL NORTE 76.2 79.9 81.9 84.6 91.3 111.1
ALBAY 58.6 64.1 67.8 83.4 107.7 122.3 SURIGAO DEL SUR 85.1 92.7 90.1 97.4 76.2 116.1
CAMARINES NORTE 53.9 49.0 69.0 81.9 102.2 137.3 ARMM
CAMARINES SUR 54.4 56.8 67.6 84.2 100.6 130.4 BASILAN 48.3 88.2 89.9 95.3 87.1 115.4
MAGUINDANAO 79.3 82.7 85.2 88.4 84.3 120.0
CATANDUANES 54.1 67.4 68.2 86.5 83.6 136.6
LANAO DEL SUR 62.6 80.4 84.6 88.7 90.3 103.7
MASBATE 49.4 56.1 65.3 78.8 115.0 121.7
SULU 48.9 75.2 86.9 89.1 89.8 114.6
SORSOGON 57.1 61.6 68.0 80.6 107.2 120.2 TAWI-TAWI 52.5 72.6 84.1 86.6 92.0 116.2
 NUMBER OF PROVINCES THAT WILL LIKELY TO RECEIVE…

Way below Below

MONTH Near normal Above normal
normal Normal

MARCH 22 50 8 3

APRIL 2 63 18 0

MAY 0 40 43 0

JUNE 0 31 52 0

JULY 0 6 50 27

AUGUST 4 18 44 17

2019/2/20
 PROVINCE MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN
ABRA 0.9 9.0 4.4 9.2 52.2 36.5 151.1 185.1 166.5 159.3 239.3 202.3 562.0 1109.8 797.4 155.9 263.6 202.1
BENGUET 8.7 23.8 14.8 59.8 82.9 74.3 198.9 240.3 221.6 234.5 268.1 252.1 1173.0 1544.5 1415.6 286.3 406.1 347.1
IFUGAO 12.9 28.2 18.2 47.2 69.6 54.8 165.1 216.1 189.0 147.8 239.1 195.0 289.9 1377.2 779.4 157.9 305.7 222.0
KALINGA 6.1 12.5 8.8 27.4 54.1 45.4 136.1 176.3 155.1 124.2 208.7 156.1 256.7 882.5 491.9 135.8 228.4 169.3
APAYAO 4.4 16.5 9.3 22.8 49.5 39.5 130.2 156.3 145.1 118.6 172.6 144.8 362.9 678.1 516.7 129.0 176.0 150.8
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 8.4 15.7 12.0 41.9 62.3 53.1 153.8 202.8 177.5 137.8 244.4 192.1 294.6 1265.7 764.5 158.3 287.7 217.3
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE 0.0 14.7 4.8 1.2 35.0 15.1 154.2 171.4 163.5 164.0 218.5 188.7 640.9 834.0 759.0 164.4 205.0 183.2
ILOCOS SUR 0.1 12.6 6.9 6.5 75.8 38.5 167.5 219.3 185.8 211.2 268.1 244.2 816.6 1543.9 1139.1 182.1 351.2 267.8
LA UNION 6.8 12.3 10.1 57.9 79.5 69.9 199.7 225.5 212.6 252.3 272.5 267.9 1145.0 1541.0 1403.5 314.8 380.3 350.4
PANGASINAN 0.0 25.2 5.9 25.8 68.9 45.9 162.7 218.4 182.4 208.1 268.1 245.9 665.9 1204.7 911.0 295.4 460.8 352.7
REGION II
BATANES 46.5 65.4 54.5 37.0 53.7 43.0 183.4 192.5 188.3 227.9 247.9 238.9 297.9 409.5 334.6 95.7 162.2 126.4
CAGAYAN 7.8 44.4 18.2 19.4 59.5 36.4 123.3 177.6 136.1 111.5 209.4 126.2 245.3 655.6 334.5 115.4 177.4 142.8
ISABELA 10.5 97.8 40.3 26.6 109.9 57.0 135.1 205.0 168.2 121.5 191.5 153.2 184.1 608.6 265.8 139.6 236.3 178.1
NUEVA VIZCAYA 18.4 127.4 47.0 50.8 170.3 78.4 190.0 235.0 215.1 184.5 239.9 210.9 391.8 1379.8 879.7 188.9 347.5 256.4
QUIRINO 32.2 130.0 86.8 51.3 170.3 103.1 189.1 235.1 212.9 174.6 205.9 193.6 242.6 718.6 406.4 164.6 234.6 196.7
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
BATAAN 0.0 4.1 1.7 26.5 59.5 43.4 107.1 134.8 120.9 201.9 245.8 226.3 721.9 1069.5 905.2 333.9 477.2 416.2
BULACAN 0.0 52.1 13.6 23.4 104.4 57.6 120.9 190.8 164.1 205.2 221.0 211.4 363.4 860.1 587.5 262.7 405.4 326.6
NUEVA ECIJA 0.0 93.7 29.4 11.1 127.3 49.3 157.7 219.9 191.2 196.2 224.9 204.5 293.6 986.1 536.1 233.4 419.0 319.2
PAMPANGA 0.0 5.4 0.2 34.6 55.8 47.5 124.6 168.0 146.7 211.1 249.4 227.1 586.8 1140.3 874.4 357.3 505.7 433.5
TARLAC 0.0 1.7 0.0 16.3 49.2 36.3 147.5 184.3 161.5 210.1 264.6 233.5 618.0 1217.2 880.7 355.7 557.4 453.8
ZAMBALES 0.0 6.9 1.5 19.5 58.5 38.7 126.8 166.2 150.3 239.6 283.6 263.3 911.7 1417.1 1193.6 403.1 617.2 519.2
AURORA 48.1 170.6 119.8 81.7 194.7 143.2 182.1 247.8 218.4 185.3 214.4 202.4 256.6 429.3 318.4 152.4 269.2 211.8
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA 3.5 16.7 9.3 8.5 55.6 25.7 94.8 147.9 117.0 188.7 207.7 199.9 623.2 728.0 663.8 260.3 373.2 325.3
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
BATANGAS 2.3 38.7 14.9 17.2 70.6 44.4 88.9 130.8 106.1 179.3 203.8 185.6 297.6 643.4 441.5 192.9 304.0 222.1
CAVITE 1.6 7.9 3.1 7.4 36.7 19.1 89.8 102.9 94.5 183.0 195.6 187.8 527.7 688.8 612.3 216.2 303.2 261.5
LAGUNA 3.2 71.0 31.7 9.4 110.2 46.3 90.4 137.8 109.2 175.5 197.3 185.4 294.1 647.9 450.2 191.6 301.9 220.9
RIZAL 12.8 63.4 33.3 26.2 115.4 73.1 105.2 171.9 138.1 186.2 212.6 202.6 394.1 644.6 533.0 216.3 347.9 280.3
QUEZON 20.4 126.0 72.6 41.4 144.5 76.9 87.3 193.9 119.4 126.4 214.4 175.1 113.4 467.2 280.0 179.4 266.3 212.1
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
MARINDUQUE 42.2 62.5 50.6 52.1 59.4 54.5 99.1 109.6 103.9 171.8 203.0 186.0 281.8 311.1 299.6 211.9 252.4 226.6
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 3.9 25.6 15.1 8.6 63.5 38.0 112.6 132.1 122.9 200.5 262.0 240.2 381.9 628.0 477.8 263.6 565.0 404.9
ORIENTAL MINDORO 9.8 34.2 23.4 13.7 74.8 47.7 109.5 142.3 124.0 205.4 257.7 235.0 328.8 538.9 405.3 231.2 504.3 344.4
ROMBLON 23.6 43.0 33.7 35.0 54.8 43.7 87.8 110.9 94.0 191.1 233.5 213.7 236.0 346.5 292.5 203.5 313.1 253.4
PALAWAN 0.4 17.2 9.7 10.9 43.2 35.8 99.4 122.4 108.6 146.2 249.9 189.9 142.8 683.2 322.1 302.7 646.9 359.2
REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY 81.4 119.7 101.5 75.5 113.6 100.6 102.6 116.1 110.0 171.4 189.0 180.9 205.0 307.3 280.6 226.1 263.1 256.7
CAMARINES NORTE 74.0 88.5 77.7 48.6 80.7 59.9 96.5 121.8 101.5 148.9 166.4 154.9 217.1 252.8 240.7 197.8 240.3 220.5
CAMARINES SUR 73.6 98.6 82.1 59.6 97.0 71.8 96.9 110.1 103.0 153.2 192.5 176.3 219.7 293.7 256.1 214.3 258.6 243.7
CATANDUANES 79.3 86.0 81.8 77.8 107.1 95.4 104.3 108.0 105.5 187.0 192.7 191.1 189.7 220.2 202.9 219.7 235.8 225.7
MASBATE 33.6 75.2 53.9 28.7 70.2 46.3 87.2 99.6 91.8 129.9 197.1 147.7 207.9 307.8 268.5 199.4 255.1 226.5
SORSOGON 85.3 110.0 100.0 57.5 106.4 84.6 97.8 111.6 105.6 139.8 178.3 161.7 207.4 301.2 250.3 218.9 257.5 236.4
 PROVINCE MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS) MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN
AKLAN 21.1 26.8 24.5 34.6 43.0 39.1 96.9 106.3 101.8 212.7 232.8 219.0 197.1 348.0 242.8 206.8 322.5 249.6
ANTIQUE 12.0 24.6 21.0 25.8 43.1 37.2 101.0 116.6 110.1 207.9 253.1 216.3 245.7 515.9 305.2 249.6 467.9 322.3
CAPIZ 22.1 33.4 26.5 31.4 44.8 36.4 93.7 108.3 101.1 210.0 237.9 221.5 194.7 270.8 225.8 192.2 301.4 251.7
GUIMARAS 22.5 26.4 24.5 43.9 50.8 46.6 118.5 132.8 124.2 246.1 266.1 256.0 388.1 456.5 420.1 397.5 446.3 419.7
ILOILO 19.3 40.7 26.6 35.9 58.7 41.8 93.3 119.8 109.6 186.7 259.1 232.3 221.8 389.8 302.0 219.0 397.9 327.9
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 17.2 38.8 24.3 40.6 59.0 51.2 97.1 150.8 119.9 196.8 280.5 250.8 230.2 477.1 386.3 260.4 493.8 375.2
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
NEGROS ORIENTAL 20.2 29.5 25.2 27.7 59.1 46.1 79.5 134.6 102.3 158.8 275.0 200.6 107.0 454.5 239.6 152.7 442.1 261.0
BOHOL 30.3 73.9 46.8 35.1 77.3 64.8 61.2 77.0 67.6 114.3 160.7 129.8 107.7 159.6 127.7 127.2 172.9 141.4
CEBU 24.7 77.3 35.0 28.1 72.7 49.5 59.4 99.0 81.8 147.3 229.5 192.2 124.3 287.3 201.8 162.8 282.8 223.6
SIQUIJOR 26.9 32.3 29.7 36.5 59.7 49.3 81.0 86.7 83.9 140.4 153.4 147.5 95.8 101.0 97.2 136.9 144.8 140.6
REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
BILIRAN 79.0 97.5 91.0 66.7 81.8 74.9 93.5 98.5 96.7 135.9 150.7 145.4 245.3 263.6 255.7 224.7 231.8 229.4
EASTERN SAMAR 114.1 160.7 137.2 78.0 106.0 85.6 109.7 143.9 124.9 157.3 197.0 185.9 138.7 286.4 237.4 174.9 211.0 198.0
LEYTE 68.0 118.3 93.8 47.3 96.3 79.9 62.8 107.7 88.6 118.9 170.6 151.8 146.6 251.6 186.9 173.3 229.3 206.0
NORTHERN SAMAR 81.1 142.2 127.7 55.2 88.4 82.3 94.5 119.6 107.7 128.6 180.7 154.9 169.9 249.7 207.0 189.9 222.3 198.1
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 83.6 145.1 123.6 67.0 95.9 83.0 92.6 131.4 111.6 126.6 188.6 163.9 171.7 288.3 256.4 197.9 234.4 214.1
SOUTHERN LEYTE 67.4 187.4 110.6 47.2 137.9 69.5 61.5 96.8 79.0 109.1 141.5 122.0 158.3 183.3 173.8 156.9 193.7 179.7
REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 26.9 38.7 32.8 55.7 75.2 69.2 96.3 124.2 112.0 162.0 242.6 214.7 123.6 238.3 193.9 166.3 248.1 216.2
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 23.5 45.7 36.2 67.9 79.0 73.9 96.0 136.4 119.4 157.6 247.4 215.9 135.2 223.3 189.3 172.9 236.1 210.6
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 31.2 39.6 35.6 68.7 79.0 71.9 107.3 125.0 116.7 176.0 232.9 208.3 161.1 210.4 192.4 199.0 230.3 214.8
REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
BUKIDNON 32.0 108.6 68.7 30.9 117.2 89.6 128.8 197.0 175.8 198.7 275.1 251.2 205.1 328.2 290.9 150.8 282.7 213.1
CAMIGUIN 73.5 85.4 79.2 94.8 100.9 98.8 93.3 102.7 98.0 130.3 141.3 135.2 137.4 152.0 142.9 143.6 155.9 148.8
LANAO DEL NORTE 36.5 54.0 43.7 44.1 108.0 79.1 129.8 156.9 141.1 214.9 253.0 236.9 203.9 265.5 225.1 199.4 244.6 221.6
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 30.6 40.7 36.0 70.6 82.5 74.9 104.6 132.4 120.0 197.8 245.7 226.0 152.4 219.8 191.1 182.7 233.7 210.2
MISAMIS ORIENTAL 31.1 114.4 63.1 30.9 115.7 72.8 107.4 146.8 126.1 147.1 229.4 190.1 124.7 254.2 187.9 130.4 205.5 163.6
REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
COMPOSTELA VALLEY 70.6 250.5 144.6 93.1 185.2 110.3 175.3 198.2 185.0 186.9 246.7 214.4 120.8 223.3 151.1 144.9 180.4 161.9
DAVAO CITY 83.7 118.6 100.0 111.1 153.8 134.3 189.8 218.0 203.5 209.0 264.0 236.1 164.2 280.8 216.1 191.1 303.4 264.3
DAVAO DEL NORTE 78.5 171.1 110.6 94.7 141.8 109.9 180.8 204.1 191.6 189.3 265.8 236.9 141.4 289.2 207.4 153.3 254.2 195.2
DAVAO DEL SUR 63.1 111.6 85.8 80.4 153.5 121.5 138.6 208.6 173.2 148.2 218.4 185.6 109.9 197.8 155.1 163.9 290.0 232.4
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 58.2 84.7 70.8 70.2 121.6 94.7 112.5 167.0 131.3 115.7 171.9 134.3 83.6 136.0 100.5 106.3 214.3 143.5
DAVAO ORIENTAL 92.4 272.7 147.1 100.5 202.0 117.2 147.1 199.6 176.4 161.0 230.9 190.1 120.7 162.5 132.0 154.1 186.1 165.6
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
SOUTH COTABATO 36.5 70.6 57.2 51.7 103.1 82.6 101.1 159.0 129.6 112.4 196.7 147.5 74.7 185.3 116.8 84.7 224.5 148.3
COTABATO 60.2 101.7 78.2 104.1 146.7 116.8 167.3 203.4 188.0 196.5 275.1 252.8 175.2 322.3 267.5 234.7 302.2 280.5
SARANGANI 41.5 70.7 57.8 52.8 102.4 78.5 105.1 143.0 117.2 110.2 164.0 124.6 74.2 143.6 90.1 89.7 174.1 115.0
SULTAN KUDARAT 62.1 82.2 67.8 92.1 117.9 103.4 132.2 173.3 152.4 161.2 230.1 194.0 130.2 236.2 182.9 153.2 263.1 208.9
REGION XIII- CARAGA
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 98.1 200.7 144.7 108.6 141.3 123.2 110.8 149.9 125.9 122.5 204.6 166.3 105.6 182.9 126.3 117.2 145.2 130.3
AGUSAN DEL SUR 94.8 378.7 193.5 99.5 316.8 149.4 128.5 213.5 175.4 153.5 257.8 226.2 106.1 282.0 182.0 132.9 212.0 167.0
DINAGAT ISLANDS 148.8 230.7 189.9 107.1 157.3 130.3 101.2 116.6 108.8 116.6 139.7 126.9 149.0 176.9 170.1 150.5 176.8 165.7
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 185.8 252.2 214.3 110.6 167.1 138.9 105.6 135.7 119.9 111.5 155.5 130.0 118.0 175.8 152.4 130.9 166.9 144.4
SURIGAO DEL SUR 187.8 404.8 259.5 112.1 321.5 177.5 125.8 218.2 168.8 143.5 235.0 200.2 108.6 165.7 135.5 133.1 219.5 177.0
ARMM
BASILAN 26.4 36.7 29.9 69.4 78.0 71.5 100.3 109.8 104.7 158.2 169.5 161.9 137.4 164.3 145.9 179.1 210.0 186.3
MAGUINDANAO 59.1 77.2 67.6 100.3 118.2 110.8 157.4 190.1 175.2 191.1 271.3 242.0 172.9 303.7 255.1 221.6 305.4 270.7
LANAO DEL SUR 42.4 68.9 54.1 67.5 115.1 102.4 140.4 187.3 163.9 227.6 275.0 255.7 227.3 323.1 276.3 213.7 284.3 249.3
SULU 25.4 40.2 30.3 57.2 78.9 67.6 107.8 119.1 115.1 171.6 198.2 189.3 168.9 237.0 212.0 196.9 258.8 238.1

TAWI-TAWI 19.1 31.3 30.3 47.0 66.4 64.9 112.3 126.9 124.4 202.2 213.1 203.1 239.1 308.2 244.4 260.0 330.0 265.3
 FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected Dams and Lakes
in (mm) and (%N)
FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL (MARCH - AUGUST 2019 )
NAME Angat Watershed Lake Buhi Lake Lanao Magat Watershed Malinao Watershed Pantabangan Watershed San Roque Cascade WS

MIN 8.0 76.4 31.3 13.2 45.7 36.3 12.2

MAX 53.2 113.0 60.9 58.2 57.0 97.3 23.8
MARCH
MEAN 27.0 89.4 47.4 28.4 51.6 61.1 17.4
%NORMAL 38.1 56.3 62.0 44.0 52.6 47.4 30.6
MIN 64.2 67.3 30.9 48.8 59.3 58.0 62.1
MAX 101.4 111.1 112.7 80.3 73.2 137.0 82.9
APRIL
MEAN 81.2 83.0 80.0 62.7 67.3 89.6 76.0
%NORMAL 62.8 59.9 73.1 63.0 81.8 71.5 73.6
MIN 165.8 99.7 124.2 175.8 63.8 206.5 212.2
MAX 190.5 113.7 178.5 222.7 70.3 225.2 239.5
MAY
MEAN 180.2 106.0 155.2 204.9 67.3 215.8 225.4
%NORMAL 88.7 67.5 85.5 87.9 65.6 88.3 85.1
way below normal MIN 207.8 168.8 204.1 171.3 119.4 196.4 234.9
MAX 214.4 187.2 269.6 240.9 128.6 212.6 260.1
below normal JUNE
near normal
MEAN 212.8 180.3 243.3 211.2 123.9 202.1 246.6
%NORMAL 80.8 84.0 88.7 79.1 93.4 80.7 70.9
above normal
MIN 366.6 251.9 206.8 447.1 120.5 410.0 1115.5
MAX 550.7 303.8 318.3 1398.5 136.2 892.1 1499.1
JULY
MEAN 479.9 275.3 267.7 959.0 129.3 605.4 1377.6
%NORMAL 116.6 105.6 91.4 156.0 91.1 142.0 184.4
MIN 264.3 237.8 180.6 177.1 132.7 217.7 303.8
MAX 302.1 262.4 273.2 323.7 142.5 287.4 402.8
AUGUST
MEAN 281.5 252.6 226.0 254.5 137.7 256.8 350.2
%NORMAL 73.6 125.5 96.1 58.2 105.5 80.5 50.3
DRY SPELL/DROUGHT
OUTLOOK
 Dry condition / Dry spell / Drought CRITERIA
Dry condition = two (2) consecutive months of below normal (21%-60% reduction from
average) rainfall conditions;

Dry spell = three (3) consecutive months of below normal (21%-60% reduction from
average) rainfall conditions;

or
two (2) consecutive months of way below normal (more than 60% reduction from
average) rainfall conditions.

Drought - three (3) consecutive months of way below normal (>60% reduction from
average);
or
five (5) consecutive months of below normal (21%-60% reduction from average)
rainfall condition.
 OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
AS OF February 17, 2019
PROVINCES THAT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION (22)
LUZON (7) IFUGAO, ISABELA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, BULACAN, AURORA, RIZAL
VISAYAS (6) GUIMARAS, NEGROS ORIENTAL, BOHOL, CEBU, SIQUIJOR, SOUTHERN LEYTE
MINDANAO (9) BUKIDNON, CAMIGUIN, LANAO DEL NORTE, MISAMIS ORIENTAL, COMPOSTELA
VALLEY, AGUSAN DEL NORTE, AGUSAN DEL SUR, BASILAN, LANAO DEL SUR

PROVINCES THAT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL (41)

LUZON (26) ABRA, BENGUET, KALINGA, APAYAO, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, PANGASINAN,
CAGAYAN, BATAAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, METRO
MANILA, BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE, ORIENTAL
MINDORO, ROMBLON, ALBAY, CAMARINES NORTE, CAMARINES SUR,
CATANDUANES, MASBATE, SORSOGON
VISAYAS (10) AKLAN, ANTIQUE, CAPIZ, ILOILO, NEGROS OCCIDENTAL, BILIRAN, EASTERN
SAMAR, LEYTE, NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR)
MINDANAO (5) ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL, DINAGAT ISLANDS, SURIGAO
DEL NORTE, TAWI-TAWI

PROVINCES THAT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE DROUGHT (9)

LUZON (5) ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, PALAWAN

VISAYAS (0) NONE

MINDANAO (4) ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR, ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY, MAGUINDANAO, SULU

 OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
AS OF February 17, 2019
PROVINCES THAT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION (0)
LUZON (0) NONE
VISAYAS (0) NONE
MINDANAO (0) NONE

PROVINCES THAT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL (42)

LUZON (21) IFUGAO, CAGAYAN, ISABELA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, BATAAN, BULACAN,
NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, AURORA, BATANGAS, LAGUNA, RIZAL,
QUEZON, MARINDUQUE, ALBAY, CAMARINES NORTE, CAMARINES SUR, MASBATE,
SORSOGON
VISAYAS (14) ANTIQUE, CAPIZ, GUIMARAS, ILOILO, NEGROS OCCIDENTAL, NEGROS ORIENTAL,
CEBU, SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN, EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE, NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR
(WESTERN SAMAR), SOUTHERN LEYTE
MINDANAO (7) BUKIDNON, CAMIGUIN, LANAO DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL, MISAMIS
ORIENTAL, DINAGAT ISLANDS, SURIGAO DEL NORTE

PROVINCES THAT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE DROUGHT (22)

LUZON (17) ABRA, BENGUET, KALINGA, APAYAO, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, ILOCOS NORTE,
ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION,PANGASINAN, ZAMBALES, METRO MANILA, CAVITE,
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL MINDORO, ROMBLON, PALAWAN,
CATANDUANES
VISAYAS (1) AKLAN

MINDANAO (4) ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY, SULU, TAWI-TAWI

 OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
AS OF February 17, 2019
PROVINCES THAT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION (0)
LUZON (0) NONE
VISAYAS (0) NONE
MINDANAO (0) NONE

PROVINCES THAT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL (6)

LUZON (1) RIZAL

VISAYAS (4) NEGROS ORIENTAL, CEBU, SIQUIJOR, SOUTHERN LEYTE

MINDANAO (1) CAMIGUIN

PROVINCES THAT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE DROUGHT (33)

LUZON (21) PANGASINAN, BATAAN, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, METRO MANILA,

BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO,
ORIENTAL MINDORO, ROMBLON, PALAWAN, ALBAY, CAMARINES NORTE,
CAMARINES SUR, CATANDUANES, MASBATE, SORSOGON
VISAYAS (10) AKLAN, ANTIQUE, CAPIZ, ILOILO, NEGROS OCCIDENTAL, BILIRAN, EASTERN
SAMAR, LEYTE, NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR)
MINDANAO (2) MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL, DINAGAT ISLANDS
 OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
AS OF February 17, 2019
PROVINCES THAT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION (0)
LUZON (0) NONE
VISAYAS (0) NONE
MINDANAO (0) NONE

PROVINCES THAT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL (1)

LUZON (1) RIZAL

VISAYAS (0) NONE

MINDANAO (0) NONE

PROVINCES THAT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE DROUGHT (19)

LUZON (13) PANGASINAN, BATAAN, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, METRO MANILA,

BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL MINDORO,
PALAWAN, MASBATE
VISAYAS (5) ANTIQUE, ILOILO, BILIRAN, NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR)

MINDANAO (1) DINAGAT ISLANDS

 Slightly cooler
cooler
Near average

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE

FORECAST (MARCH -AUGUST 2019) Near average warmer

Near average

Near average

cooler

Near average
Near average
Near average

Near average

Near average
Slightly warmer Near average

warmer warmer

Slightly cooler Warmer

Near average Near average

warmer
Warmer

Near average

Slightly cooler
 FORECAST RANGES OF TEMPERATURE (EXTREME)
Updated : 20 Feb. 2019

Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19

TMAX Summary
Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range
Northern Luzon 29.1 38.0 30.5 39.5 31.7 40.7 31.3 38.6 32.8 38.5 31.5 37.0
Lowlands Luzon 28.8 37.8 30.4 39.1 30.6 40.4 31.5 37.6 30.5 38.3 30.3 37.2
Mountainous Luzon 26.5 28.6 27.2 28.9 26.2 28.5 26.2 28.1 25.0 27.0 24.0 26.5
Metro Manila 34.0 36.6 35.1 38.0 36.0 38.2 33.8 37.1 32.8 36.2 31.9 35.1
Lowlands Visayas 30.9 36.0 32.0 38.0 32.4 38.3 32.8 37.4 32.0 36.6 32.0 36.9
Lowlands Mindanao 32.0 37.7 33.3 38.9 32.8 38.8 32.8 37.2 31.9 38.3 32.5 38.2
Mountainous Mindanao 32.5 34.5 33.9 36.0 33.0 35.9 32.0 33.4 30.8 33.0 32.0 33.6

Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19

TMIN Summary
Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range
Northern Luzon 14.7 22.9 14.1 23.5 18.1 23.9 16.6 24.0 16.5 24.5 18.7 25.4
Lowlands Luzon 18.4 25.7 19.5 26.1 21.5 26.3 20.6 26.7 20.6 25.7 20.4 25.3
Mountainous Luzon 11.3 14.1 12.1 15.0 15.2 16.3 15.0 16.1 15.0 15.7 15.1 15.6
Metro Manila 19.9 24.6 21.1 26.0 23.0 26.8 22.8 25.4 22.4 25.3 22.7 24.8
Lowlands Visayas 18.9 24.4 19.5 25.6 21.8 25.3 20.5 25.3 21.4 25.6 20.3 25.4
Lowlands Mindanao 19.0 23.5 18.2 24.6 19.0 24.5 18.4 24.6 18.4 24.4 17.8 24.4
Mountainous Mindanao 14.0 17.0 13.7 17.1 16.9 18.0 15.6 18.1 16.0 17.3 15.3 18.0
Climatological Normal Dry Days( MARCH - AUGUST 1981-2010) Forecast Dry Days for MARCH - AUGUST 2019 as of Feb.19, 2019
STATIONS MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST STATIONS MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST
ITBAYAT 25 22 19 19 15 24 ITBAYAT 24 25 21 20 19 15
CALAYAN 26 24 23 22 17 25 CALAYAN 26 27 24 23 22 18
BASCO 24 21 18 18 14 23 BASCO 24 25 21 19 20 20
VIGAN 29 22 16 14 12 31 VIGAN 31 30 22 17 16 18
LAOAG CITY 29 23 19 16 15 31 LAOAG CITY 31 30 23 19 19 20
APARRI 27 24 22 22 21 27 APARRI 29 28 24 22 24 23
TUGUEGARAO 26 22 20 20 19 28 TUGUEGARAO 29 28 22 21 21 21
IBA 27 21 14 10 9 29 IBA 30 29 19 13 13 11
DAGUPAN CITY 26 21 15 13 11 29 DAGUPAN CITY 30 28 20 16 15 14
BAGUIO CITY 23 13 12 8 7 27 BAGUIO CITY 28 26 13 10 10 10
CABANATUAN CITY 27 20 17 12 11 29 CABANATUAN CITY 29 29 20 17 14 11
BALER 17 16 16 17 17 19 BALER 20 19 16 16 19 17
CASIGURAN 20 18 18 18 19 19 CASIGURAN 20 22 18 17 20 18
PORT AREA 28 22 16 13 12 29 PORT AREA 29 29 21 16 17 13
SUBIC BAY 28 20 15 11 10 30 SUBIC BAY 30 28 20 15 11 10
TAYABAS 23 20 18 16 18 23 TAYABAS 25 26 20 17 18 15
SANGLEY POINT 28 24 17 14 13 30 SANGLEY POINT 30 29 23 18 17 15
NAIA 29 25 17 16 13 30 NAIA 30 29 25 17 16 13
SCIENCE GARDEN 26 21 14 11 11 29 SCIENCE GARDEN 29 27 19 13 13 11
CALAPAN 22 21 17 17 19 24 CALAPAN 25 25 20 16 18 16
AMBULONG 27 23 17 15 15 29 AMBULONG 30 28 23 16 17 15
INFANTA 19 19 16 15 18 18 INFANTA 19 22 18 14 18 17
ALABAT 24 23 19 17 19 23 ALABAT 23 26 22 19 18 18
DAET 23 21 18 17 20 21 DAET 22 26 19 16 19 19
LEGASPI CITY 18 19 16 14 16 18 LEGASPI CITY 19 20 18 14 16 14
VIRAC SYNOP 19 20 17 17 19 20 VIRAC SYNOP 21 21 19 16 17 17
CORON ISLAND 27 21 13 10 11 30 CORON ISLAND 31 29 19 13 12 10
SAN JOSE 28 23 15 12 12 30 SAN JOSE 30 30 21 14 13 11
ROMBLON ISLAND 25 23 16 16 17 25 ROMBLON ISLAND 26 27 22 16 18 16
ROXAS CITY 26 23 17 17 18 26 ROXAS CITY 28 28 22 16 17 16
MASBATE 26 24 19 17 17 24 MASBATE 25 28 24 18 20 16
CATARMAN 20 21 18 18 21 18 CATARMAN 19 23 20 17 19 19
CATBALOGAN 20 20 16 16 19 19 CATBALOGAN 20 22 19 16 18 17
TACLOBAN CITY 19 20 16 18 19 18 TACLOBAN CITY 19 21 19 15 19 18
GUIUAN 18 20 16 18 20 16 GUIUAN 18 21 20 17 18 18
PTO PRINCESA C. 25 22 17 17 17 28 PTO PRINCESA C. 30 27 22 16 18 15
CUYO ISLAND 28 20 13 11 14 30 CUYO ISLAND 31 30 20 13 13 12
ILOILO CITY 25 22 14 14 14 27 ILOILO CITY 29 28 21 13 14 14
DUMAGUETE CITY 26 24 19 19 21 26 DUMAGUETE CITY 27 28 23 18 20 19
MACTAN AIRPORT 25 24 18 18 19 25 MACTAN AIRPORT 27 27 22 17 19 18
MAASIN 24 25 21 17 19 22 MAASIN 24 25 24 19 19 17
SURIGAO CITY 16 21 19 20 22 13 SURIGAO CITY 14 17 21 17 21 22
DIPOLOG CITY 24 21 15 18 19 24 DIPOLOG CITY 27 27 20 14 18 17
COTABATO CITY 20 16 11 13 17 21 COTABATO CITY 23 23 16 12 13 15
EL SALVADOR 26 22 16 15 18 27 EL SALVADOR 28 27 22 15 16 18
MALAYBALAY 21 15 11 11 13 22 MALAYBALAY 23 23 14 9 12 14
BUTUAN CITY 21 20 18 19 22 19 BUTUAN CITY 21 23 20 16 19 20
DAVAO CITY 21 19 17 19 19 23 DAVAO CITY 25 24 19 17 19 19
HINATUAN CITY 13 15 16 18 20 10 HINATUAN CITY 12 14 15 15 19 18
ZAMBOANGA CITY 23 23 18 20 21 26 ZAMBOANGA CITY 28 27 23 17 18 18
GEN SANTOS CITY 25 23 20 21 21 26 GEN SANTOS CITY 27 26 23 19 21 21
MMSU, BATAC 29 23 17 15 15 30 MMSU, BATAC 31 30 23 18 17 17
ISU 25 20 20 17 19 26 ISU 28 27 19 19 19 20
CLSU,MUNOZ 27 21 16 12 11 29 CLSU, MUÑOZ 30 29 18 16 15 14
UEP,CATARMAN 19 20 18 18 21 18 UEP, CATARMAN 18 21 20 17 18 20
LA GRANJA 24 17 12 10 14 26 LA GRANJA 28 27 16 10 10 13
PCA, Davao 19 16 15 17 17 22 PCA, Davao 23 20 15 15 17 16
NAS, UPLB 26 21 16 14 15 27 NAS, UPLB 28 28 20 16 16 15
Forecast Tropical Cyclone Frequency
MONTH NUMBER OF TC

MARCH 2019 0 OR 1

APRIL 2019 0 OR 1

MAY 2019 1 OR 2

JUNE 2019 1 OR 2

JULY 2019 2 OR 3

AUGUST 2019 2 OR 3

6 - 9 TCs from MAR - AUG 2019

2019/2/20
SUMMARY:
• Weak El Niño is present in the Tropical Pacific;
• PAGASA ENSO Alert System is now upgraded to El Niño Advisory.
• Varying impacts may occur i.e., warmer than average surface temperatures, prolonged dry
season (maybe due to early dry season or delayed onset of rainy season).
• Rainfall forecast for the whole country:
• MARCH 2019: Generally way below to below normal rainfall conditions over
most parts of the country except for southern Mindanao and Surigao del Sur
where near normal is likely;
• APRIL 2019: Generally below normal rainfall conditions in Luzon and Visayas
while near normal mostly in Mindanao;
• MAY 2019: Generally below normal rainfall conditions in most parts southern
Luzon and Visayas while near normal in most parts of northern Luzon and
Mindanao;
• JUNE 2019: Below normal rainfall conditions expected in most parts of Luzon
(except the eastern sections) while most parts of Visayas and Mindanao are
expected to have near normal rainfall conditions;
SUMMARY:
• JULY 2019: Most parts of the Luzon will likely receive above normal rainfall
while near normal rainfall condition with patches of below normal in Visayas
and Mindanao is expected;
• AUGUST 2019: Generally below normal rainfall conditions in most parts of
Luzon while near normal to above normal in most parts of Visayas and
Mindanao are expected.
• Generally near average to slightly warmer than average temperature is
forecasted during the period (esp. night time temperatures);
• 6-9 TCs may develop/enter PAR during the forecast period; Based from historical
perspectives, TC frequency for 2019 will be below average;
• Potential for meteorological dry spell to drought conditions in most areas of the
country in the coming months.
PAGASA will continue to closely monitor this
weak El Niño and updates/advisories shall be
issued as appropriate.
Weekly ENSO monitoring is available at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/index.php/climate/climate-prediction/el-nino-
southern-oscillation-enso-status

National Forum on El Nino (COF-111):

MARCH 22, 2019 44
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