CLIMATE

OUTLOOK
MARCH – AUGUST 2023

Prepared by:
PAGASA-DOST
Climatology & Agrometeorology Division (CAD)
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
Presented by:
RUSY G. ABASTILLAS
SWS, CLIMPS
 La Niña Update

Climate Outlook
( MARCH – AUGUST 2023)

Summary
La Niña Update
as of 22 February 2023
Conditions in the Global Tropics – Ocean
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs)

➢ During the last four weeks, positive SST changes were evident in
➢ During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were
the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
below average across most of the Pacific Ocean and
in the eastern Indian Ocean. Equatorial SSTs were
above average in the far western and far eastern
Pacific and in the central Atlantic Ocean. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_mo
nitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
La Niña Update
as of 22 February 2023 Conditions in the Tropical Pacific - Atmosphere
Tradewinds and upper level winds

C ➢ Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation) were

located over the central tropical Pacific Ocean. Negative OLR anomalies
(enhanced convection and precipitation) were observed near the
C Philippines and over western Indonesia.

➢ Low-level (850-hPa) easterly wind anomalies were evident across the

western and central equatorial Pacific Ocean. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
➢ Upper-level (200-hPa) westerly wind anomalies were observed across
the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, with anomalous
cyclones on either side of the equator.
La Niña Update
as of 22 February 2023
La Niña Update
as of 22 February 2023

During the last 4 weeks, negative SST anomalies

weakened across most of the equatorial Pacific
Ocean. Positive SST anomalies emerged in the far
eastern Pacific.
La Niña Update
as of 22 February 2023 until when? Global Model Forecast Guidance

o 22 out of 24 models or 92% suggest ENSO-neutral

conditions during FMA 2023.
FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND

Average, Dynamical models -0.179 0.091 0.359 0.625 0.861 0.987 1.003 0.968 0.972

Average, Statistical models -0.347 -0.161 0.041 0.231 0.383 0.431 0.494 0.55 0.63 The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) indicates ENSO-
neutral is expected by March 2023 and then may continue into the
Average, All models -0.228 0.018 0.266 0.51 0.702 0.758 0.781 0.759 0.801 Northern Hemisphere early summer, before potentially transitioning
to El Niño.
What are the chances?

Model output + Expert judgment

ENSO probability forecast
Model output (Purely objective)
Season La Niña Neutral El Niño
ENSO probability forecast
JFM 63 37 0
FMA 15 85 0
A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is
MAM 5 94 1
very likely during the February-April 2023
AMJ 3 82 15 season, with ENSO-neutral persisting through
MJJ 3 61 36 the NH early summer 2023. During the El Niño Watch - issued when conditions are
JJA 4 47 49 summer, there is a chance of a transition to El favorable for the development of El Niño
Niño. within the next six months and probability
JAS 5 38 57
is 55% or more.
ASO 6 34 60
SON 7 31 62 https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-iri_plume
ENSO Alert System Status:
La Niña Advisory

La Niña still continues to weaken and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions

during February-March-April (FMA) 2023 season is expected.
La Niña increases the likelihood of having above normal rainfall conditions that could lead
to potential adverse impacts (such as heavy rainfall, floods, flashfloods and landslides)
over highly vulnerable areas.
 Weather systems that may affect the country
March – August 2023

INTER-TROPICAL
NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST
THUNDERSTORMS CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ)
MONSOON MONSOON EASTERLIES
weakening In transition towards SW
Monsoon

SHEAR LINE LOW PRESSURE

RIDGE OF HIGH
AREAS (LPAs) TROPICAL CYCLONES
PRESSURE AREAS (HPAs)
 ABOUT OUR RAINFALL MAPS

PERCENTAGE (%) RAINFALL CONDITION

Less than or = 40 way below normal

41 – 80 below normal

81 – 120 near normal

Greater than 120 above normal

For more details
and updates

Rainfall Surplus or Reduction

 MARCH 2023
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

1 4 23 56
 APRIL 2023
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

0 9 43 32
 MAY 2023
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

0 0 84 0
 JUNE 2023
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

0 0 73 11
 JULY 2023
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

0 0 83 1
 AUGUST 2023
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

0 4 79 1
 FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal (March - August 2023) as of February 21, 2022

PROVINCE MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST PROVINCE MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST PROVINCE MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)
MARINDUQUE 121.6 108.6 106.6 100.4 105.4 88.5 ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 170.1 131.2 111.1 95.7 95.3 85.1
ABRA 46.6 72.1 92.5 104.9 97.1 101.8
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 105.6 110.0 105.3 114.3 110.5 105.3 ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 171.5 137.3 110.1 96.5 93.3 85.6
BENGUET 89.0 93.9 98.7 103.9 90.1 104.6
ORIENTAL MINDORO 108.7 114.0 106.1 104.9 106.2 99.0 ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 169.8 132.6 110.5 96.6 92.9 86.4
IFUGAO 88.6 81.7 101.8 92.9 94.0 100.0
ROMBLON 126.3 113.5 101.9 109.5 102.5 97.6 REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
KALINGA 83.0 89.8 97.4 95.0 98.4 96.0
APAYAO 84.2 80.3 94.0 98.7 94.4 99.4 PALAWAN 118.3 125.4 105.7 108.0 98.4 92.2 BUKIDNON 146.5 131.8 105.3 94.7 91.4 96.3
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 76.7 79.6 99.1 94.5 95.1 98.3 SPRATLY ISLANDS 104.2 112.5 102.7 124.6 103.5 98.9 CAMIGUIN 150.9 128.3 111.3 110.5 101.4 85.5
REGION I REGION V (BICOL) LANAO DEL NORTE 166.9 140.7 107.0 98.6 95.8 93.0
ILOCOS NORTE 45.4 54.2 86.9 106.9 91.4 107.2 ALBAY 122.2 76.4 92.8 117.2 102.0 97.6 MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 171.6 130.7 109.5 96.5 97.7 86.8
ILOCOS SUR 38.9 55.1 93.9 105.7 93.5 101.8 CAMARINES NORTE 151.6 118.8 106.6 100.6 104.0 90.6 MISAMIS ORIENTAL 150.9 145.8 109.5 101.8 100.9 90.1
LA UNION 72.6 67.4 95.4 109.4 87.3 103.6 CAMARINES SUR 136.6 102.7 95.2 105.9 99.4 96.7 REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
PANGASINAN 119.6 100.5 95.4 126.5 100.3 104.7 CATANDUANES 136.2 89.0 90.0 109.5 103.1 88.4 DAVAO DE ORO 144.5 122.1 104.3 97.9 96.9 93.1
REGION II MASBATE 142.5 97.5 97.9 123.3 113.1 90.7 DAVAO CITY 121.8 119.1 100.6 90.8 88.7 92.3
BATANES 101.5 102.6 90.7 109.8 105.7 103.2 SORSOGON 135.9 106.4 93.6 121.9 103.8 98.0 DAVAO DEL NORTE 132.3 127.7 103.7 93.7 88.2 92.3
CAGAYAN 111.0 92.2 99.1 92.2 97.2 93.3 DAVAO DEL SUR 139.3 119.7 99.0 92.5 93.0 92.1
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
ISABELA 108.4 91.0 105.4 95.7 101.6 96.5 DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 157.0 130.5 100.8 97.7 92.8 91.1
AKLAN 130.9 109.1 105.0 105.7 92.6 97.7
NUEVA VIZCAYA 113.4 104.4 104.8 101.4 100.0 106.7 DAVAO ORIENTAL 147.6 121.1 103.5 99.8 106.1 92.6
ANTIQUE 119.6 116.9 103.2 113.2 98.4 99.1
QUIRINO 113.8 94.1 108.5 99.4 102.5 103.8 REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
CAPIZ 148.0 109.9 107.6 104.6 96.4 93.5
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON) SOUTH COTABATO 166.5 135.7 101.2 97.9 87.4 92.7
GUIMARAS 138.6 121.8 102.6 114.2 104.0 97.1
BATAAN 94.4 94.8 110.3 174.2 160.1 149.2 COTABATO 151.4 124.8 100.1 92.6 86.0 95.8
ILOILO 138.2 117.7 104.3 110.3 100.0 95.6
BULACAN 126.5 106.3 106.1 118.1 101.2 97.4 SARANGANI 166.1 134.7 101.5 99.3 88.4 91.7
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 156.5 122.3 110.2 105.9 99.2 92.1
NUEVA ECIJA 118.9 80.3 104.5 113.3 102.4 102.7 SULTAN KUDARAT 167.1 133.0 101.4 97.2 88.0 93.7
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS) REGION XIII- CARAGA
PAMPANGA 91.7 84.6 101.3 139.7 97.1 88.9
NEGROS ORIENTAL 171.0 138.2 117.8 97.8 97.7 88.6 AGUSAN DEL NORTE 146.3 140.4 106.9 105.7 95.6 79.2
TARLAC 105.0 71.8 96.8 136.3 80.7 86.8
ZAMBALES 108.9 83.8 100.6 170.0 117.2 118.3
BOHOL 156.6 125.8 114.3 110.4 97.5 88.0 AGUSAN DEL SUR 145.1 127.6 105.8 99.2 91.2 86.7
AURORA 115.9 92.3 109.5 106.0 101.3 104.0 CEBU 160.5 120.7 113.8 103.8 93.1 87.6 DINAGAT ISLANDS 132.0 113.8 106.8 115.4 92.8 68.5
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION SIQUIJOR 177.8 150.6 119.7 97.1 97.5 85.3 SURIGAO DEL NORTE 136.0 113.7 105.0 114.4 89.8 68.9
METRO MANILA 120.2 101.3 100.8 122.6 103.0 101.3 REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS) SURIGAO DEL SUR 144.0 124.4 105.3 104.6 91.4 78.5
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) BILIRAN 144.3 117.6 106.1 117.3 107.9 85.2 BARMM
BATANGAS 117.9 117.8 106.7 119.3 108.8 101.7 EASTERN SAMAR 134.8 105.9 104.2 114.0 91.8 88.3 BASILAN 167.7 143.1 114.0 97.2 91.3 80.4
CAVITE 112.3 78.4 102.6 134.8 112.2 106.8 LEYTE 142.6 115.3 113.4 116.0 109.7 84.8 MAGUINDANAO 173.1 121.6 100.0 96.5 86.8 97.3
LAGUNA 120.3 84.3 105.0 120.7 96.1 94.1 NORTHERN SAMAR 139.6 107.4 95.1 115.5 91.7 92.1 LANAO DEL SUR 165.3 134.2 104.2 97.4 92.6 97.2
RIZAL 121.2 54.7 105.5 117.2 99.9 100.3 SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 138.9 122.3 102.0 116.6 96.8 88.1 SULU 157.3 135.2 111.0 98.8 93.4 89.3
QUEZON 126.7 98.3 108.2 108.0 99.6 92.2 SOUTHERN LEYTE 137.0 108.2 114.5 119.9 105.9 81.6 TAWI-TAWI 144.2 132.8 109.3 100.4 95.7 90.3
 PROVINCE MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST
CO RDILLERA ADMINIS TRATIV E REG IO N MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN
ABRA 3.3 28.5 15.3 10.4 66.0 39.6 156.9 223.2 181.3 210.5 313.1 267.4 337.8 543.6 450.6 396.9 686.7 544.0
BENGUET 34.6 65.8 50.4 39.2 142.7 91.7 251.7 318.6 288.8 317.0 422.7 368.6 539.6 666.3 619.4 710.7 1037.0 862.2
IFUGAO 37.8 65.4 49.7 57.4 80.8 65.5 215.8 281.6 246.9 157.2 336.5 236.5 221.9 570.8 378.3 250.0 757.9 485.0
KALINGA 21.7 41.8 30.9 49.3 66.8 62.5 162.0 215.9 186.6 134.7 263.4 185.8 207.0 450.0 299.9 210.1 575.4 361.4
APAYAO 14.8 40.9 27.9 33.1 65.4 50.4 138.7 172.0 151.6 145.1 244.0 192.5 210.8 378.2 287.7 244.2 481.2 364.9
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 27.0 48.4 37.1 54.0 66.7 63.0 195.1 261.6 223.9 148.7 324.1 233.8 222.2 553.8 384.3 263.3 727.5 498.7
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE 1.1 32.6 11.7 8.8 49.2 21.7 150.8 168.8 155.6 211.0 301.2 266.2 289.6 503.1 398.8 437.9 666.6 548.4
ILOCOS SUR 0.5 39.6 20.7 8.1 59.6 32.7 160.1 287.6 217.6 282.8 388.5 328.0 481.9 666.2 562.5 558.3 903.7 705.3
LA UNION 28.5 50.5 37.6 32.8 123.3 62.2 248.1 298.0 275.2 372.4 458.5 415.0 586.3 664.1 630.8 806.6 965.2 889.8
PANGASINAN 22.5 61.2 33.6 40.5 136.7 68.0 210.9 280.2 235.4 300.0 677.2 476.9 438.6 774.6 571.3 487.4 852.8 704.4
REGION II
BATANES 41.6 67.7 56.5 55.8 63.3 60.0 182.3 189.2 184.3 203.5 220.1 212.6 224.3 321.9 258.2 342.7 388.6 355.0
CAGAYAN 27.7 70.9 47.8 33.7 70.9 51.7 133.4 179.9 153.4 118.8 221.2 140.1 157.2 308.0 218.3 182.9 458.6 242.3
ISABELA 37.5 217.7 97.8 51.9 138.7 73.0 167.8 266.1 218.7 128.9 215.5 162.4 198.4 323.8 237.9 174.2 397.4 228.3
NUEVA VIZCAYA 55.9 171.3 87.4 61.9 170.0 104.7 251.2 294.3 276.0 207.5 354.4 280.3 298.1 612.0 447.0 243.0 795.9 511.9
QUIRINO 71.7 226.2 151.2 63.4 171.0 116.5 253.8 282.4 271.8 187.6 252.5 216.2 253.9 390.2 295.6 187.7 403.2 258.9
REGION III
BATAAN 16.9 25.2 20.0 4.3 22.2 11.1 162.5 193.6 182.3 397.5 586.6 472.6 565.2 862.2 697.8 605.1 932.2 753.5
BULACAN 24.6 138.7 55.5 2.1 135.2 39.5 180.3 242.9 215.8 303.9 402.0 333.3 372.8 594.4 471.4 325.7 629.1 462.9
NUEVA ECIJA 15.1 144.9 61.0 1.0 174.4 67.4 191.5 273.6 231.0 263.6 370.8 294.2 316.3 537.6 385.6 265.1 617.5 399.9
PAMPANGA 24.3 40.2 31.2 0.0 41.3 17.2 180.0 209.2 190.3 306.7 532.5 388.2 325.1 623.1 452.8 395.0 695.7 502.8
TARLAC 16.4 32.2 25.0 12.0 63.4 40.9 186.3 232.0 201.3 318.5 634.2 445.4 321.5 728.4 461.0 394.7 837.9 568.8
ZAMBALES 16.8 29.4 22.4 14.0 52.5 36.1 189.5 228.0 206.3 472.7 757.3 631.7 573.0 1017.5 772.7 663.1 1018.4 853.6
AURORA 126.3 296.2 203.5 98.5 196.8 167.2 239.6 285.7 266.2 197.4 314.9 243.4 268.6 410.6 299.3 177.5 368.9 227.1
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA 25.2 54.9 37.1 24.8 51.9 37.1 156.4 207.7 182.0 302.4 358.8 330.4 400.1 530.4 475.8 400.7 614.6 520.7
REGION IV-A
BATANGAS 25.6 99.0 52.5 25.3 113.3 61.4 148.8 187.0 166.4 229.3 384.4 269.0 273.3 623.0 347.9 164.8 568.6 296.4
CAVITE 18.8 37.2 25.0 12.7 34.8 21.7 150.3 165.6 156.4 274.6 385.5 323.0 353.6 615.0 446.7 337.0 566.2 441.4
LAGUNA 28.8 177.6 89.6 22.6 117.6 70.3 150.6 195.4 167.8 242.4 316.2 272.4 245.9 456.7 325.0 183.9 486.7 280.9
RIZAL 47.1 166.0 91.7 41.4 109.4 70.0 161.3 233.3 200.0 274.7 330.6 310.4 320.5 495.2 417.4 274.8 560.9 425.8
QUEZON 64.2 299.9 178.9 61.8 173.0 105.1 139.4 245.2 181.5 178.9 318.3 228.3 124.7 420.0 268.6 114.0 410.3 183.3
REGION IV-B
MARINDUQUE 109.2 148.2 127.4 82.9 94.4 86.0 164.0 173.7 168.4 205.2 240.6 221.6 257.4 313.6 298.8 142.8 188.4 160.2
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 13.1 70.7 44.4 35.6 103.4 63.6 173.9 189.0 180.1 275.1 479.0 343.4 319.3 694.0 444.7 263.1 615.0 395.8
ORIENTAL MINDORO 33.4 94.1 66.5 41.2 122.1 83.9 173.8 195.4 182.2 247.2 401.5 305.8 289.2 519.3 386.9 173.9 489.1 309.5
ROMBLON 89.8 119.6 105.2 68.6 85.0 80.1 157.8 174.6 163.4 240.2 332.4 279.4 282.2 372.6 324.8 165.3 302.5 233.0
PALAWAN 10.7 90.7 58.8 36.0 86.0 73.0 139.7 186.5 155.2 162.0 409.1 250.4 156.9 523.4 295.8 147.8 452.7 259.2
SPRATLY ISLANDS 34.3 34.8 34.5 50.2 51.5 50.4 170.8 171.8 171.1 373.8 389.2 376.4 455.3 465.6 457.0 431.2 444.9 433.5
REGION V
ALBAY 83.0 308.8 164.0 0.0 201.4 64.9 151.8 170.7 158.6 212.0 248.1 229.3 237.6 313.4 300.2 180.1 251.2 232.7
CAMARINES NORTE 199.2 304.2 259.6 90.6 159.0 133.7 155.6 170.7 165.2 177.7 196.8 182.9 215.0 257.4 243.2 115.0 188.3 146.7
CAMARINES SUR 79.4 258.1 158.0 0.0 149.4 83.6 147.0 164.0 153.1 177.6 235.7 198.4 246.4 306.8 272.9 142.2 238.7 202.0
CATANDUANES 221.4 258.0 237.6 110.6 123.9 113.2 146.6 153.1 150.0 226.9 244.7 237.2 244.3 268.6 255.2 157.8 182.3 165.8
MASBATE 105.7 243.3 170.1 46.0 113.2 72.9 134.9 171.2 146.8 207.8 267.3 218.9 225.4 310.0 254.3 141.8 226.6 163.3
SORSOGON 143.9 321.6 280.7 50.3 203.9 154.0 148.6 164.2 156.1 225.9 246.6 235.8 209.9 307.7 249.8 168.0 235.7 194.9
 PROVINCE MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST
REGION VI MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN
AKLAN 96.4 203.3 148.3 68.0 101.6 86.1 172.6 182.0 177.7 299.2 343.4 314.5 283.8 376.0 308.9 203.6 315.9 253.4
ANTIQUE 47.8 144.3 105.6 57.5 89.3 73.8 170.3 178.2 174.0 315.9 400.1 324.5 296.2 499.9 323.6 254.6 455.5 323.5
CAPIZ 117.1 232.2 168.4 56.7 107.0 90.4 172.2 183.1 179.5 277.1 321.0 307.3 279.2 325.2 294.4 157.0 309.0 242.7
GUIMARAS 70.7 92.5 81.7 72.7 95.6 80.2 168.3 183.5 174.7 330.3 341.8 338.0 376.0 427.6 396.7 370.8 389.6 383.1
ILOILO 67.2 182.7 120.9 66.0 102.5 81.8 163.0 179.3 173.4 250.8 340.1 322.5 269.1 386.1 326.3 161.6 390.2 315.8
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 96.3 141.9 115.7 85.7 117.2 100.3 160.5 201.4 175.4 234.4 340.1 298.2 262.6 449.1 382.0 201.3 379.0 289.3
REGION VII
NEGROS ORIENTAL 114.2 148.5 126.2 81.2 115.7 92.5 131.0 187.5 154.8 169.0 314.3 222.7 147.2 433.4 256.9 90.2 325.0 185.1
BOHOL 121.0 196.4 160.5 67.7 117.9 100.9 110.1 126.8 116.7 155.6 207.8 172.9 127.3 225.9 153.3 100.2 170.8 127.8
CEBU 97.3 226.9 135.4 60.2 132.4 89.4 121.2 162.0 141.6 168.3 275.4 225.0 149.4 309.3 241.9 101.4 212.9 167.5
SIQUIJOR 142.0 152.6 148.3 88.2 106.3 97.6 126.6 136.6 131.5 157.9 165.8 162.0 128.0 139.4 133.7 94.7 103.9 98.1
REGION VIII
BILIRAN 238.6 266.7 256.4 120.0 148.1 131.6 155.9 166.2 161.4 236.4 258.0 250.3 271.4 286.2 280.7 146.2 160.0 154.2
EASTERN SAMAR 309.0 401.0 354.0 122.1 174.5 155.7 148.6 200.3 179.0 203.4 268.1 253.3 194.5 280.2 233.9 106.4 207.2 175.3
LEYTE 196.5 341.5 266.3 73.8 159.0 131.0 125.1 174.4 157.3 213.7 262.0 252.1 211.7 290.1 267.0 133.4 210.2 171.4
NORTHERN SAMAR 263.2 440.4 373.0 93.0 162.4 146.6 147.4 172.1 159.4 222.4 261.6 248.2 190.6 273.2 231.4 150.7 191.4 166.2
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 262.2 377.3 327.7 112.0 178.5 160.8 151.1 191.5 172.4 225.4 267.2 258.3 201.5 285.0 256.8 136.1 191.8 165.5
SOUTHERN LEYTE 195.1 368.9 268.3 72.5 183.1 108.2 123.1 148.0 133.9 197.1 239.1 222.0 166.8 280.5 240.9 120.7 192.1 167.5
REGION IX
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 119.8 185.3 154.6 99.5 133.4 120.2 131.4 171.6 158.8 159.5 243.9 217.9 145.3 258.6 225.4 121.4 211.8 177.3
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 114.9 172.7 154.9 114.7 129.2 124.7 124.8 176.5 160.0 154.5 251.8 217.8 139.2 254.6 208.4 101.3 194.6 165.0
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 128.7 160.7 146.0 114.3 128.4 117.4 141.5 166.9 156.1 176.8 235.0 211.5 171.3 240.4 212.0 143.5 193.6 175.7
REGION X
BUKIDNON 93.7 223.9 162.3 101.2 170.6 148.5 161.4 224.7 208.1 227.8 289.7 264.1 238.9 329.8 300.0 187.4 298.8 256.9
CAMIGUIN 181.7 198.5 189.8 145.3 149.3 148.5 131.0 138.3 134.4 180.8 187.8 183.8 145.8 164.1 155.7 121.6 132.3 127.5
LANAO DEL NORTE 99.9 173.8 150.1 102.8 154.8 125.5 162.5 188.5 176.9 240.9 271.3 255.6 211.1 270.5 229.4 177.5 223.3 193.5
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 154.5 172.5 163.8 122.9 131.8 127.4 156.7 175.1 167.4 204.2 250.1 233.0 195.5 245.2 220.1 142.8 184.8 167.1
MISAMIS ORIENTAL 84.2 226.7 148.6 100.3 170.9 134.2 140.8 180.2 158.7 187.4 255.9 221.5 145.8 266.7 212.8 110.8 214.6 169.4
REGION XI
DAVAO DE ORO 159.1 434.2 275.9 132.4 238.4 155.7 201.9 234.1 215.7 190.0 243.0 212.3 135.2 216.2 155.5 152.8 212.0 171.4
DAVAO CITY 135.5 205.9 165.1 150.5 203.9 183.3 213.6 234.0 225.2 204.7 260.9 231.2 188.6 281.4 250.5 181.4 257.1 229.3
DAVAO DEL NORTE 145.1 320.9 222.0 134.2 189.9 155.9 205.7 226.3 220.5 189.2 263.0 229.4 143.9 284.0 204.0 169.8 260.7 209.2
DAVAO DEL SUR 124.2 148.3 137.1 117.7 203.8 170.7 152.3 224.7 188.6 158.7 221.4 192.4 160.7 268.1 228.1 129.6 217.0 174.7
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 118.4 182.7 142.9 102.5 170.6 140.1 130.9 182.5 147.4 133.7 179.2 148.7 87.0 219.6 139.5 104.9 160.5 122.3
DAVAO ORIENTAL 172.6 466.1 273.0 143.6 255.5 166.1 171.6 235.9 205.9 180.3 237.7 199.5 140.3 211.5 171.3 148.3 169.1 155.7
REGION XII
SOUTH COTABATO 95.7 171.9 135.5 74.7 154.5 122.0 112.4 178.8 146.0 126.6 214.6 162.4 72.4 213.4 130.7 85.5 173.6 125.0
COTABATO 144.2 208.6 171.6 152.0 199.0 163.9 184.1 224.2 211.1 207.2 293.4 264.9 231.7 324.2 291.1 177.3 270.8 238.1
SARANGANI 102.2 165.5 133.9 76.2 154.2 116.2 116.9 157.1 133.1 124.4 180.3 139.9 69.1 170.6 100.9 89.6 137.6 106.4
SULTAN KUDARAT 131.7 192.3 168.4 132.8 171.2 153.1 154.0 194.4 173.4 175.6 249.5 211.7 141.8 254.5 195.4 133.8 204.8 165.9
REGION XIII
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 197.7 365.3 265.1 163.0 190.9 175.6 135.6 182.6 153.5 178.8 223.3 199.2 117.1 225.6 154.5 78.5 170.2 106.5
AGUSAN DEL SUR 196.6 613.8 341.7 157.8 375.1 202.4 152.9 253.6 209.6 191.3 256.7 236.7 125.6 288.4 213.0 84.6 254.0 173.8
DINAGAT ISLANDS 327.1 430.6 382.1 143.5 206.9 181.7 133.5 146.5 140.2 194.8 214.9 204.3 151.2 219.7 186.5 94.8 129.9 110.6
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 343.3 460.1 397.1 161.8 215.8 189.7 128.9 166.8 143.9 178.8 207.7 191.9 118.0 192.6 141.8 78.6 112.4 91.4
SURIGAO DEL SUR 334.2 653.0 442.0 166.4 380.0 232.7 149.4 259.7 201.6 187.9 257.9 227.1 122.7 216.9 175.9 80.6 166.1 127.6
BARMM
BASILAN 114.6 127.8 123.3 107.0 122.1 120.2 129.7 140.8 135.0 155.7 174.1 161.7 141.7 175.0 152.1 112.5 151.7 127.0
MAGUINDANAO 145.1 218.4 190.5 133.4 157.5 152.9 177.0 215.6 199.1 205.4 293.2 263.0 210.5 298.1 255.4 168.6 252.0 214.5
LANAO DEL SUR 122.4 198.6 161.8 115.4 154.0 143.8 172.3 215.3 195.0 252.3 292.2 278.5 229.0 324.5 270.7 191.4 271.1 229.8
SULU 101.3 130.9 119.2 96.3 122.5 114.3 134.6 149.6 141.9 168.8 227.1 192.3 167.6 247.3 196.6 148.3 202.6 170.9
TAWI-TAWI 92.1 125.8 107.0 82.9 117.2 108.5 142.8 161.2 151.4 183.5 276.0 215.9 176.1 310.0 229.6 159.1 267.2 191.9
 FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected Dams and Lakes
in (mm) and (%N) FOR MARCH 2023- AUGUST 2023

FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL (MAR 2023 - AUG 2023)

Pantabangan San Roque
NAME Angat WS La Mesa WS Lake Buhi Lake Lanao Magat WS Malinao WS
WS Cascade WS
MIN 49.7 44.0 79.4 84.2 38.7 155.9 66.8 48.0
MAX 142.2 52.8 192.5 180.3 104.1 174.1 135.4 64.8
MARCH MEAN 90.8 48.2 104.0 137.0 64.5 165.6 95.6 57.7
%NORMAL 118.1 135.7 125.3 158.5 99.7 154.4 126.6 105.8
MIN 38.6 38.9 0.0 100.3 58.8 99.0 70.8 66.9
MAX 133.2 44.1 111.5 154.1 131.2 113.9 142.7 142.7
APRIL MEAN 74.3 41.4 35.6 132.0 83.9 107.1 103.6 113.9
%NORMAL 83.4 100.1 84.5 145.1 93.4 124.9 101.8 117.9
MIN 225.9 200.5 147.0 155.0 227.5 115.2 250.8 270.5
MAX 242.9 211.1 164.7 208.0 292.5 118.6 274.6 316.0
MAY MEAN 237.3 204.7 152.3 186.8 266.7 117.0 263.8 293.8
%NORMAL 110.2 103.5 92.5 106.4 102.8 114.4 106.4 99.9
MIN 306.5 329.7 183.8 235.7 188.2 165.2 253.2 331.4
MAX 328.9 332.5 233.5 291.0 348.6 178.2 308.0 393.6
JUNE MEAN 319.9 330.5 209.1 267.7 275.0 171.9 279.3 361.0
%NORMAL 112.7 116.1 110.9 97.8 97.2 112.3 108.9 104.1
MIN 390.0 484.1 263.0 216.5 267.4 142.9 314.2 565.5
MAX 484.6 501.8 313.3 323.1 589.3 164.5 488.0 655.2
JULY MEAN 440.3 496.8 293.8 268.9 450.8 153.1 397.6 621.9
%NORMAL 102.2 103.8 99.3 95.9 95.6 99.2 107.9 92.9
MIN 325.3 515.4 194.6 176.2 320.5 120.0 286.2 741.2
MAX 471.2 566.6 251.2 270.3 775.6 137.2 559.0 1014.5
AUGUST MEAN 406.6 544.1 227.6 225.0 555.9 129.3 404.9 849.1
%NORMAL 99.3 102.4 98.3 96.1 103.9 87.9 109.2 106.2
 FORECAST RAINFALL OF RAIN STATIONS OVER SELECTED DAM AREAS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR MARCH 2023 – AUGUST 2023
MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST
SITES
MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL
AMBUKLAODAM 58.0 98.6 113.9 112.4 303.8 100.0 364.3 103.2 642.7 91.4 892.6 105.8
ANGATDAM 58.6 183.1 39.3 96.2 225.7 108.3 329.0 113.7 484.0 103.4 428.2 93.4
APUNAN 53.8 86.1 85.2 84.9 288.7 100.1 356.5 101.0 602.3 87.9 821.8 105.0
BADAYAN 45.0 71.9 59.4 60.5 271.7 99.0 336.3 98.4 572.0 87.7 761.8 101.9
BINGADAM 60.9 113.5 128.6 130.0 302.3 99.7 369.5 105.0 636.2 93.2 903.1 106.8
BOBOK 60.7 102.4 115.4 115.4 297.9 100.9 348.4 101.9 629.0 93.0 826.8 106.0
BUNGA 76.8 130.1 98.3 116.5 267.8 105.2 300.9 108.7 462.7 108.2 515.1 109.7
BUYOC 56.0 91.8 67.9 81.9 256.9 102.4 246.9 92.6 397.6 93.6 501.8 101.1
DANTOR 44.3 84.3 67.3 80.7 239.4 100.7 224.6 91.9 360.6 93.8 472.4 99.0
DUMAYUP 73.9 102.0 74.8 90.4 265.7 104.8 242.4 94.5 388.7 97.5 450.9 102.9
HALONG 45.7 80.1 66.4 75.3 251.6 100.2 267.5 93.8 446.3 91.2 581.6 100.4
IPODAM 42.3 155.3 26.7 118.2 212.9 105.7 336.2 116.0 490.5 99.1 494.3 96.2
MAGATDAM 53.5 97.9 59.0 88.9 240.4 104.4 188.2 91.3 268.2 97.6 324.2 99.1
MAPUTI 126.8 120.6 84.6 82.7 238.9 110.5 317.2 112.4 431.5 101.9 363.0 101.7
MARIKIT 128.8 120.7 132.0 93.1 265.9 107.3 273.7 109.9 345.1 105.8 321.7 108.7
MATULID 49.7 96.0 58.5 84.9 241.5 112.2 324.5 113.2 456.0 102.9 471.2 97.3
NORZAGARAY 40.9 153.5 23.3 117.7 213.9 105.8 335.9 115.9 489.3 98.7 484.0 94.9
PADALIS 103.0 126.6 106.9 99.0 264.8 106.9 272.1 109.0 384.8 108.4 375.6 109.5
PANTABANGAN DAM 78.9 130.3 79.3 95.2 251.7 106.6 279.2 111.1 385.2 109.4 384.8 109.3
SANROQUEDAM 50.8 132.1 129.0 155.5 270.3 98.9 368.1 112.4 574.7 102.2 747.9 107.7
STODOMINGO 75.9 107.8 92.8 99.2 276.5 103.9 293.7 99.3 477.7 95.6 575.7 106.8
TALAGUIO 53.5 123.2 50.5 89.5 235.1 108.8 322.3 113.5 459.6 102.2 444.8 97.0
UMIRAY 121.6 103.9 89.5 81.7 239.0 110.5 316.5 111.8 410.6 100.8 386.7 100.8
 FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR MARCH 2023 – MAY 2023

MARCH 2023 APRIL 2023 MAY 2023

LUZON
CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
Abra RB 1.8 44.7 18.8 48.3 8.6 63.7 41.8 69.5 157.0 277.2 194.5 93.4
Abulug RB 16.1 45.5 29.2 87.2 32.9 63.2 47.1 79.5 136.1 164.8 148.5 94.2
Agno RB 19.0 68.9 36.7 115.1 35.4 142.7 69.7 97.7 189.0 316.0 238.2 97.6
Bicol RB 79.4 262.1 124.4 130.0 0.0 152.6 54.9 92.0 147.0 164.0 153.1 94.1
Bued RB 28.0 64.5 43.8 127.2 68.4 138.6 110.8 134.8 225.0 311.0 260.9 95.9
Cagayan RB 21.3 250.3 74.9 102.8 33.7 174.4 75.1 92.4 133.4 292.5 219.1 102.8
Laoag RB 1.4 21.7 9.7 45.8 8.8 40.3 23.2 61.3 150.9 163.5 155.9 87.4
Pampanga RB 15.1 163.2 52.9 111.1 0.0 185.3 51.2 81.5 180.2 274.6 217.5 103.9
Pasig-Laguna RB 24.7 167.3 65.9 122.9 2.3 111.7 52.8 90.5 150.1 229.0 178.6 103.9
Sinocalan RB 24.8 42.5 29.9 125.9 52.3 103.4 69.0 106.6 219.7 254.0 230.1 94.7
MINDANAO
CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
Agus RB 84.2 144.3 114.0 155.9 100.3 141.5 113.0 157.7 149.3 195.7 166.5 109.2
Agusan RB 181.9 535.1 314.2 145.2 136.5 336.3 187.4 129.1 143.2 242.3 205.3 105.8
Buayan-Malungon 95.7 138.5 122.5 158.4 74.7 155.2 112.5 133.0 112.4 172.3 144.9 100.1
Cagayan de Oro 90.2 150.5 123.6 151.7 100.7 150.9 124.3 148.3 158.1 213.3 189.1 107.3
Cotabato RB 121.1 233.0 171.1 156.6 101.2 194.6 155.0 127.3 132.7 224.6 200.0 101.5
Davao RB 142.5 224.5 182.8 127.9 159.0 192.2 172.7 125.5 223.0 228.4 225.0 102.0
Tagoloan River 121.7 181.9 147.5 147.8 116.0 153.2 138.3 135.6 162.4 218.7 192.5 107.5
Tagum-Libuganon 184.1 366.0 257.5 137.3 136.3 191.4 153.7 128.7 210.4 228.8 221.3 104.5
 FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR JUNE 2023 – AUGUST 2023
JUNE 2023 JULY 2023 AUGUST 2023
LUZON
CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
Abra RB 214.9 354.2 279.5 104.0 343.6 599.4 473.1 95.7 404.3 809.9 582.3 101.6
Abulug RB 133.6 238.7 189.7 98.3 194.2 369.2 281.1 94.0 212.9 492.0 358.9 99.4
Agno RB 299.7 627.1 426.0 123.9 350.4 704.9 539.1 91.2 464.9 1037.0 679.0 99.2
Bicol RB 177.6 233.3 202.9 108.9 247.5 312.6 285.7 99.5 159.9 251.2 217.8 97.6
Bued RB 370.0 471.1 413.0 115.8 531.0 641.9 576.9 99.0 658.4 1031.4 774.5 106.2
Cagayan RB 126.7 348.7 191.7 95.7 191.3 589.3 293.1 99.6 174.2 780.0 318.8 98.4
Laoag RB 222.5 293.8 264.1 107.8 328.0 478.1 405.5 93.1 444.0 666.6 532.3 106.8
Pampanga RB 253.5 542.4 330.8 122.2 299.3 743.0 416.7 100.1 244.2 864.5 439.2 98.1
Pasig-Laguna RB 241.5 383.1 300.9 121.1 258.2 556.0 397.5 99.3 186.1 614.6 388.0 97.6
Sinocalan RB 365.2 496.8 429.0 120.9 488.2 562.0 521.8 98.1 608.3 688.4 646.0 102.7
MINDANAO
CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
Agus RB 220.8 278.8 246.6 99.8 192.4 294.3 233.2 99.5 160.6 244.5 193.3 93.3
Agusan RB 189.2 257.4 230.7 99.2 130.5 289.1 200.9 92.3 85.8 255.9 170.6 87.5
Buayan-Malungon 133.0 172.2 151.2 96.4 90.2 202.2 145.0 91.7 85.5 148.8 119.5 92.2
Cagayan de Oro 233.6 279.9 263.3 97.0 231.6 328.0 288.2 97.0 183.8 279.7 237.0 96.3
Cotabato RB 141.9 293.4 250.0 94.5 94.1 329.8 263.5 87.0 106.8 298.8 223.7 95.8
Davao RB 205.1 263.1 244.0 91.2 217.1 284.0 256.3 85.3 205.1 261.9 240.0 92.9
Tagoloan River 228.2 271.7 247.4 97.2 235.3 321.0 285.0 98.3 187.6 283.7 237.8 95.5
Tagum-Libuganon 209.2 253.6 229.8 95.3 140.1 264.4 184.7 87.6 173.8 244.9 202.3 92.0
 DRY DAY FORECAST

MARCH – AUGUST 2023

Note: Dry day is defined as a day

with less than 1 mm of rainfall is
observed.
 DRY DAY FORECAST

MARCH – AUGUST 2023

DRY DAY FORECAST ANOMALY

Red shade – increased number

of dry days

Blue shade – less than the usual

number of dry days, i.e., more
days with rain

Note: Dry day is defined as a day with less than 1 mm of rainfall is observed.
 DRY DAY FORECAST

MARCH – AUGUST 2023

DRY DAY FORECAST ANOMALY

Red shade – increased number

of dry days

Blue shade – less than the usual

number of dry days, i.e., more
days with rain

Note: Dry day is defined as a day with less than 1 mm of rainfall is observed.
 MONTHLY MEAN slightly cooler

slightly cooler

TEMPERATURE FORECAST slightly warmer

cooler

average
(MARCH-AUGUST 2023) warmer
warmer

warmer
average warmer warmer

average
cooler slightly cooler Slightly warmer

slightly cooler
slightly cooler average
average

Slightly average
average
warmer warmer
Slightly warmer
warmer
slightly warmer Slightly
Slightly warmer
warmer

average

Slightly warmer

average

warmer warmer
warmer

Slightly warmer

Slightly warmer

warmer slightly cooler

slightly cooler warmer

slightly cooler
Slightly warmer
slightly cooler
cooler
average average average

Slightly warmer average

average warmer
warmer

warmer
Slightly warmer
Slightly warmer

average
 FORECAST RANGES OF EXTREME TEMPERATURE
Updated : 22 February 2023

Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23

TMAX Summary
Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range
Northern Luzon 28.4 37.8 30.0 39.5 31.2 40.3 30.8 39.2 31.0 38.1 30.1 37.3
Lowlands Luzon 28.4 37.1 29.6 39.7 30.5 40.3 30.3 38.4 29.5 40.0 29.0 39.1
Mountainous Luzon 26.6 28.1 26.1 29.6 26.3 29.2 26.1 28.6 26.0 27.5 25.2 27.2
Metro Manila 34.2 36.0 34.5 38.2 35.0 38.0 34.4 37.3 34.0 37.0 33.2 37.2
Lowlands Visayas 30.9 36.0 31.9 36.5 32.4 37.9 31.7 38.8 31.9 36.2 31.8 37.1
Lowlands Mindanao 31.9 37.8 32.6 39.6 33.1 38.4 32.6 37.9 33.4 37.5 33.3 37.5
Mountainous Mindanao 32.8 34.3 32.7 36.5 32.4 36.5 31.9 34.5 31.7 33.0 32.0 33.5

Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23

TMIN Summary
Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range
Northern Luzon 14.8 22.1 15.5 24.5 19.7 25.0 18.9 25.2 11.5 25.1 13.5 25.0
Lowlands Luzon 16.5 25.6 16.0 26.7 18.9 27.0 18.0 26.1 17.0 25.2 16.0 25.2
Mountainous Luzon 10.8 14.3 12.2 15.2 15.0 16.3 14.4 16.3 14.0 15.5 13.7 15.5
Metro Manila 19.5 24.4 20.0 25.6 22.8 25.5 23.0 25.0 21.7 24.5 20.9 24.1
Lowlands Visayas 19.7 24.8 20.5 26.3 20.0 25.5 20.4 29.0 19.1 25.1 19.3 25.3
Lowlands Mindanao 19.0 23.6 19.7 25.2 21.5 25.5 20.2 24.3 20.6 24.2 20.3 25.1
Mountainous Mindanao 14.0 16.9 14.4 17.1 15.7 18.2 17.0 18.9 16.0 18.2 15.5 19.1
 Tropical Cyclone Tracks Climatology with actual tracks from 1948-2015

MARCH JUNE
2023 0 or 1 2023 1 or 2

APRIL JULY
2023 0 or 1 2023 2 or 3

MAY AUGUST
2023 1 or 2 2023 2 or 3
SUMMARY
ENSO Alert System
La Niña Advisory
Status
➢ La Niña still continues to weaken and transition to ENSO-neutral
conditions during February-March-April (FMA) 2023 season is
expected.
Forecast Rainfall Conditions:
➢ generally near to above normal rainfall conditions are likely in most
parts the country except for the western sections of Luzon that may
March 2023 receive below normal rainfall;
➢ high probability of above normal rainfall conditions in most parts of
the country.
➢ generally below to near normal rainfall conditions in Luzon are likely
while mostly near to above normal rainfall conditions in Visayas and
April 2023 Mindanao;
➢ high probability of above normal rainfall conditions in most parts of
the country.
SUMMARY
➢ generally, near normal rainfall conditions are expected all over the country;
May 2023 ➢ higher probability for near normal rainfall conditions in most parts of the
country.
➢ generally near normal rainfall conditions are predicted in most parts of the
country, except for the western section of central Luzon where above normal
rainfall is expected;
June 2023
➢ high probability for above normal rainfall conditions in most parts of the
country while some areas in Mindanao show below normal rainfall
probability.
➢ Generally near normal rainfall conditions are likely with some areas in Luzon
July 2023 likely to receive above normal rainfall;
➢ moderate probability for near to above normal in most parts of the country.
August 2023 ➢ Generally near normal rainfall conditions are likely in the country.
➢ 40-50% probability for near to above normal conditions in Western and
Central Luzon and Western Visayas while 40-50% probability for below
normal in Mindanao and the rest of Luzon and Visayas.
SUMMARY
➢ Generally, surface air temperatures range from below average to
above average throughout the country during the forecast period.
Forecast Temperature
➢ Warmer and humid weather conditions are expected in the coming
months.
➢ 6 – 9 tropical cyclones are expected to enter/develop in the Philippine
Tropical Cyclones
Area of Responsibility (PAR) from MARCH – AUGUST 2023.
 PAGASA will continue to closely monitor
the ongoing La Niña and updates/advisories
shall be issued as appropriate.

Tentative schedule of
158th CF:
22 March 2023

38
 http://www.bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/

www.facebook.com/PAGASA.DOST.GOV.PH

@dost_pagasa

Phone
(02) 8-284-0800 loc. 906

Email: [email protected]
PAGASA ENSO ALERT AND WARNING SYSTEM
Types of Alert
During an El Niño:
• El Niño Watch - issued when conditions are favorable for the development of
El Niño within the next six months and probability is 55% or more.

• El Niño Alert – an upgrade from El Niño Watch; issued when ONI of +0.5oC
or greater is forecasted to persist in the next 2 months or more and El Niño is
likely/probable by 70% or more** (to satisfy 5 ONI).

• El Niño Advisory - an upgrade from El Niño Alert. Issued whenever El Niño

is currently on-going and the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold is
expected to persist during the forecast period.

• Final El Niño Advisory - issued whenever an ONI value is between < 0.5oC to
> -0.5oC or Neutral.
PAGASA ENSO ALERT AND WARNING SYSTEM
EL NIŇO WARNING SYSTEM AND RECOMMENDED ACTION/RESPONSE:
Observed Sea Surface Observed
Forecast from CPC NOAA and Warning Recommended
Temperature anomaly Oceanic Niño Form of Issuance
other Int’l Prediction centers Type Action/Response
(SSTA) Index (ONI)
Neutral;
between <0.5oC and No favourable development of El Niño Monthly Climate Assessment
N/A Be aware
> -0.5oC or neutral conditions within the next six months. and Outlook ***

Issued when conditions are favorable

1 month 0.5°C* or greater is between <0.5oC and for the development of El Niño within READY!
Press Statement
observed > -0.5oC or neutral the next six months and probability is Watch Be Aware/ Be Prepared
55% or more.

Issued when ONI of +0.5oC or greater Press Statement

3 consecutive ONI
5 consecutive months of is forecasted to persist in the next 2 SET!
of +0.5oC or greater
0.5°C* or greater is months or more and El Niño is Alert Early Action Issuance of Dry Spell/Drought
is already observed
observed likely/probable by 70% or more** (to Assessment to monitor early
satisfy 5 ONI). impacts.
El Nino Advisories

5 consecutive Press Statement

7 consecutive months of GO!
ONI of +0.5C or Issued when El Niño is observed and
0.5°C* or greater is
greater is already expected to continue. Advisory Take Action Issuance of Dry Spell/Drought
observed
observed Assessment and Outlook for
areas affected and likely to be
affected.

ONI is between
Final Assess and Take Action
<0.5oC and > -0.5oC Issued after El Niño has ended. Press Statement
Advisory whenever necessary
or neutral