Research methods (STA 603)

TOPIC: Probability and non-probability sampling

Spring, 2017

Assignment No. 2

Student I.D=MS160402133

Probability versus Non-Probability Sampling

We are sometimes asked "Why do official statistical agencies, such as Statistics New Zealand,
insist
on probability-based sampling methods for the surveys they run, while market research
companies
sometimes use quota sampling?" This article will attempt to answer that question.
Probability and non-probability sampling

There are several alternative ways of talking a sample. The major alternative sampling
plans may be grouped into probability technique and non-probability. In probability sampling
every element in the population has a known nonzero probability of selection. The simple
random is the best known probability sample, in which each member of the population has in
equal probability of being selected. Probability sampling designs are used when the
representativeness of the sample is of importance in the interest of wider generalizability. When
time or other factors , rather than generalizability, become critical, non-probability sampling is
generally used.

In no- probability sampling the probability of any particular element of the population
being chosen is unknown. The selection of units in no- probability sampling is quite arbitrary, as
research rely heavily on personal judgement.it should be noted that there are no appropriate
statistical techniques for measure ring random sampling error from a non-probability sample.
Thus projecting the data beyond the sample is statistically inappropriate. Nevertheless there are
occasion when non probability sample are best suited for the researchers purpose.

Types of probability sampling

Probability sample that rely on random process require more work than no random ones
.a researcher must identify specific sampling element (e , g persons) to include the sample. for
example if conducting a telephone survey ,, the researcher need to try to reach the specific simple
person , by calling back several time , to get and accurate sample.

1: Sample random sampling

 The sample random sampling is both the easiest random sample to understand and the
one on which other types are modeled.in sample random sampling, a research develop an
accurate sampling frame, select elements from sampling frame according to mathematically
random procedure , than locate the exact element that was selected for inclusion in the sample.

2: Systematic random sample

Systematic random sampling is sample random sampling with with a short cut for
random selection. Again the first step is to number e3ach element in the sampling frame. Instead
of using the list of random number, researcher calculate the sampling interval, and the interval
become his or her own question random selection method .the sampling interval i.e k where k is
some numbers tells the researcher how to select the element from a sampling frame by skipping
element in the frame before one for the sample.

Sampling interval; from easy to compute . we need the sample size and the population
size yoy can think of the sample interval as the inverse of the sampling ratio. TShe sampling
ratio for 300 name out of 900 will be 300/900 =333==33.3 percent the sample interval is
900/300=3

Probability-based Versus Non-probability-based Selection

Researchers collect information by a wide variety of methods, ranging from the experimental
designs
used in the physical sciences through to the surveys more common in the social sciences. Many
of
these methods of gathering information involve a choice of experimental subject. For example,
we
may want to choose the patients to be examined in a medical study, or the respondents to be
interviewed in a survey.
This choice can be made using probability-based methods, where the choice is by some
"mechanical”
procedure involving lists of random numbers, or the equivalent. Alternatively, the choice may be
made
by other methods, invoking some element of judgement. Methods involving judgement are
sometimes
referred to as purposive selection, judgement selection, or non-probability selection.
In this generality, it is difficult to say very much about the choice between probability and
non-probability selection. I will narrow the focus to the two kinds of surveys mentioned in the
introduction: probability-based sample surveys, and quota samples.
To set the scene, I first need to briefly describe what I mean by probability-based sampling, and
what I
mean by quota sampling.

Comparing Probability-based and Quota Sampling

The main differences between probability-based and quota sampling are the following:
If probability-based sampling is properly carried out, there will be none of the bias which can
arise
from subjective judgements in sample selection. There is the possibility of such bias, however, in
quota samples. For example, interviewers may consciously or unconsciously choose
non-threatening or easy-to-approach respondents, or those who are easy to contact.
As Deville says "... the quota method demands the formulation of a hypothetical model to fit the
data. On the other hand, a probabilistic survey does not, in principle, depend upon any model.”
The validity of the model underlying quota sampling may be open to question, and difficult to
verify.
With probability sampling, we use the randomisation distribution to draw conclusions from the
sample, and to obtain sampling errors. In a quota sample, we cannot get comparable estimates of
precision.
In general, non-response in a quota sample is handled by selection of another respondent fitting
the quota. We can be more flexible in the way we handle non-response in a probability-based
sample (although this means the use of some form of modelling).
In general, the costs of a quota sample will be lower than a probability-based sample of the same
size. In this regard, it might be worth repeating the comment of Deming who wrote sternly,
"There
is no way to compare the cost of a probability sample with the cost of a judgement sample,
because the two types of sample are used for different purposes. Cost has no meaning without a
measure of quality, and there is no way to appraise objectively the quality of a judgement sample
as there is with a probability sample."

Types of non-probability

The non-probability sampling design the element in the population does not have any
probability attached to their being chosen as sample subject. This means that the finding from the
study of the sample cannot be confidently generalized to the population. however the researcher
may at time be less concerned about generalizability than obtaining some preliminary
information in a quick and inexpensive way. Sometime non-probability could be the only way to
collect the data.

Non-probability Samples in Official Statistical Agencies

In stating that major statistical agencies were won over to probability-based sample design, I do
not
mean that these agencies saw no place for non-probability samples. The standard example in a
number of sampling textbooks is the case where we want to get information about the urban
population, but can afford to sample in only one city. In that case, the textbooks are clear that it
would
be better not to use probability-based sampling to choose the city. They suggest using judgement
to
select a “representative" city.
In a number of European countries, major official sample surveys of businesses use purposive
 Convenience sampling

Convenience sampling (also called haphazard or accidental sampling) refers to sampling

by obtaining units or people who are most conveniently available. for example it may be
convenient and economical to sample employees in companies in a nearby area, sample from a
pool of friends and neighbors.

Convenience sampling are least reliable but normally the cheapest and easiest to conduct
.convenience sampling is most often used during the exploratory phase of a research project and
is perhaps the best way of getting some basic information quickly and efficiently. Often such
sample is taken to test ideas or even to gain idea about a subject of interest.

Purposive Sampling

Depending upon the type of topic , the researchers lays down the criteria for the subject
to be included in the sample. Whoever meets that criteria could be selected in the sample . the
researcher might selected such cases or might provide the criteria to somebody else and leave it
to his or her judgment for the actual selection of the subject. That is why such a sample is also
called as judgments or expert opinion sample. fror example a researcher is interested in studding
students who are enrolled in a course on research methods are highly regular participants in the
class discussion and often come with new ideas.

Quota Sampling
Just as there are many probability-based sample designs, quota sampling is not a single method.
As
Stephan and McCarthy say, "It is not sufficient to state that quota sampling was used in a survey,
and
expect anyone to have more than a very general idea how the sample was drawn."
A quota sample may be drawn in stages. The earlier stages may often select geographic areas,
and
might use probability-based methods, with only the last stage of sampling using quota methods.
The key idea in quota sampling is to produce a sample matching the target population on certain
characteristics (eg age, sex) by filling quotas for each of these characteristics. The assumption is
that
if the sample matches the population on these characteristics, it may also match the target
population
on the quantities we are trying to measure.
Quota sampling resembles a method of probability-based sampling known as stratified sampling.
It is
different, because although interviewers are constrained by the quotas, they are still using some
element of judgment in the choice of the sample. (The amount of freedom interviewers have
varies
from survey to survey.) Because there is this element of judgment, we have no way of knowing
the
probability of selecting a given unit of the population.
So, unlike probability-based surveys, there is no "randomization distribution" to use in deriving
results
from the sample. Instead, we have to make use of some assumed probability model. This may be
a
model of the underlying population characteristics, or of the selection process. The validity of the
model is an additional assumption, which must be made to derive results.
Note that the method requires good data on the whole population to be available to set quotas.
For
example, if we are setting age and sex quotas, we need to know the age and sex distribution of
the
population.

Difference Between Probability and Non-Probability Sampling

Sampling means :

Sampling means : selecting a particular group or sample to represent the entire population.
Sampling methods are majorly divided into two categories probability sampling and non-
probability sampling. In the first case, each member has a fixed, known opportunity to belong to
the sample, whereas in the second case, there is no specific probability of an individual to be a
part of the sample. For a layman, these two concepts are same, but in reality, they are different in
the sense that in probability sampling every member of the population gets a fair chance of
selection which is not in the case with non-probability sampling. Other important differences
between probability and non-probability sampling are compiled in the article below.

PROBABILITY
NON-PROBABILITY SAMPLING
SAMPLING

Nonprobability sampling is a method

Probability sampling is a sampling
of sampling wherein, it is not known
technique, in which the subjects of the
Meaning that which individual from the
population get an equal opportunity to
population will be selected as a
be selected as a representative sample.
sample.

Alternately known
Random sampling Non-random sampling
as
PROBABILITY
NON-PROBABILITY SAMPLING
SAMPLING

Basis of selection Randomly Arbitrarily

Opportunity of
Fixed and known Not specified and unknown
selection

Research Conclusive Exploratory

Result Unbiased Biased

Method Objective Subjective

Inferences Statistical Analytical

Hypothesis Tested Generated