High Speed 2 Strategic Alternatives Study

High Speed 2 Strategic Alternatives Study
Baseline Report
March 2010
Notice
This report was produced by Atkins on behalf of the DfT for the High Speed 2 Strategic Alternatives Study.
This report may not be used by any person other than DfT without their express permission. In any event,
Atkins accepts no liability for any costs, liabilities or losses arising as a result of the use of or reliance upon
the contents of this report by any person other than DfT.
Document History
JOB NUMBER: 5087288 DOCUMENT REF: Baselining Report_001 v5.doc
3 FINAL JA JF JT JT 04-03-10
2 FINAL DRAFT JA JF JT JT 08-12-09
1 DRAFT JA/ JF JF JT JT 24-9-09
Revision Purpose Description Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date
5087288/Final Baselining Report.doc

HS2 Strategic Alternatives Study: Baseline Report
Contents
Section Page
1. Introduction 3
1.1 Structure of this Report 3
2. Do Minimum Assumptions 4
2.1 Introduction 4
2.2 Rail Supply 5
2.3 Rail Demand 8
2.4 Road Supply 9
2.5 2031 Road Network 14
2.6 Road Demand 17
3. Future Travel Conditions 18
3.1 Introduction 18
3.2 Rail 18
3.3 Highway 23
4. Conclusions 28
List of Tables
Table 2.1 – Future Year Do Minimum Rail Schemes along London – Birmingham Corridor 6
Table 2.2 – Do Minimum Rail Forecast Demand 8
Table 2.3 – 2021 Do Minimum Road Schemes within HS2 Strategic Alternatives Study Area 11
Table 2.4 - 2031 Do Minimum Road Schemes within HS2 Strategic Alternatives Study Area (in addition to
the 2021 schemes) 14
Table 2.5 – HS2 Forecast Strategic Highway Demand Matrices 17
Table 3.1 – Do Minimum Forecast Rail Demand 18
Table 3.2 – Forecast Highway Demand Matrices 23
List of Figures
Figure 2.1 – 2021 & 2031 Do Minimum Committed Rail Schemes 7
Figure 2.2 – 2008 Existing Motorway Network London – Birmingham Corridor 10
Figure 2.3 – 2021 Do Minimum Committed Motorway Schemes in the London – Birmingham Corridor 12
Figure 2.4 – 2021 Do Minimum Motorway Network London – Birmingham Corridor 13
Figure 2.5 – 2031 Do Minimum Committed Motorway Schemes in London – Birmingham Corridor 15
Figure 2.6 – 2031 Do Minimum Motorway Network London – Birmingham Corridor 16
Figure 3.1 – PLANET WCML & Chiltern Line Long Distance Rail Passenger Volumes (two way) 20
Figure 3.2 – PLD Rail Seated Capacity (16 hour 2 way) on WCML & Chiltern Long Distance Services 21
Figure 3.3 - PLANET WCML & Chiltern Line Long Distance Rail Passenger Crowding 22
Figure 3.4 – Forecast Average Hourly Two-Way Traffic Volumes (Observed Flows) 25
Figure 3.5 – Forecast Peak Hour Volume over Capacity Southbound and Eastbound (Observed Flows) 26
Figure 3.6 – Forecast Peak Hour Volume over Capacity Northbound and Westbound (Observed Flows) 27
/Final Baselining Report.doc 2

1. Introduction
At the start of 2009, HS2 Ltd was established to investigate the case for a new high speed railway
between London, the West Midlands and potentially beyond. Subsequently, Atkins was appointed
by the Department for Transport (DfT), to consider, at a high level, potential road and rail
improvement options as potential strategic alternatives to a high speed rail proposition. This study
therefore looks at a range of road and rail interventions between London and the West Midlands,
which could effectively increase capacity in line with forecast demand.
This Baseline Report is a summary of the first stage of identifying such interventions. In this first
stage it is essential to understand the planned and committed rail and road infrastructure that are
likely to be constructed in a given future year scenario, in conjunction with future year demand.
This report summarises the forecast future year network and the assumptions behind their
development. It discusses the future year demand and how this interacts with the transport
network in terms of the future year travel conditions. By clearly outlining the forecast base case
‘Do Minimum’ travel conditions, options can be appropriately developed that address these issues.
The modelling framework developed for use by HS2 Ltd. study is used in this study. All the
baseline assumptions that have been documented in this report are taken from the HS2 Ltd.
baseline as of late November 2009. This ensures that the strategic alternative improvements are
examined on the same basis as the HS2 Ltd. scheme.
1.1 Structure of this Report

The remainder of this report is structured as follows:
• Chapter 2 outlines the assumptions that were adopted in the HS2 Ltd. Do Minimum scenario.
In order to ensure consistency between the two studies, these assumptions will be adopted in
this study;
• Chapter 3 summarises the forecast Do Minimum travel conditions in both 2021 and 2031.
Understanding these conditions is essential prior to developing options aimed at improving
travel conditions in the future;
• Chapter 4 summarises the findings and draws conclusions from this report.

2. Do Minimum Assumptions
2.1 Introduction
For HS2 Ltd., Atkins developed an integrated framework of PLANET models to assess the
interaction of long-distance WCML services with local demand on the important Coventry – New
Street and Milton Keynes – Euston corridors, as well as take into account the potentially multi-
modal effects. The modelling framework also includes a Heathrow Access Model, to allow explicit
consideration of improvements to rail access to Heathrow Airport whether by conventional or high
speed rail.
The PLANET modelling framework comprises the following models:
• PLANET Long Distance – a strategic multi-modal model covering all day demand (16 hours),
including rail, road and air modes.
• PLANET Midlands – an AM peak rail only model focussing on services into Birmingham; and
• PLANET South – an AM peak rail only model focussing on services into London.
• Airport access model (spreadsheet based).
Within this framework, a Base Year 2007/ 08 Model was developed, along with two future year ‘Do
Minimum’, or Reference Case scenarios, 2021 and 2031. It is noted that the Base Year 2007/ 08
Model does not include the December 2008 timetable changes on the WCML.
The same future year scenarios and assumptions have been adopted in this study, in order to
ensure consistency with HS2 Ltd. These assumptions conform to the recently published DfT
forecasting guidance, as summarised in webTAG unit 3.15.5. This allows direct comparisons to
be made between the options developed in this study, and HS2.
The HS2 Strategic Alternatives Study area is broadly defined as between the West Midlands and
London, as follows:
• On the highway side, this includes the M1/M6 and the M40 between London and the West
Midlands. The effective limit of the study area to the north is the Birmingham Motorway Box,
including the M6 as far as J12 and the M42 as far as J9. However, the adjacent highway
network will be assessed in the event of forecast substantial impacts. At the London end the
focus will be on links onto the M25, and into Heathrow Airport. It is noted that any
enhancements to central London access should be provided primarily by enhanced or new
public transport, potentially by the provision of a ‘parkway’ near the M25.
• On the rail side, this broadly includes the West Coast Main Line between London Euston and
the West Midlands (and Trent Valley) and the Chiltern Line between London Marylebone and
the West Midlands.
The following sections outline the road and rail schemes that are assumed to be implemented
between 2008 and the forecast future years being considered. These schemes, together with
their associated demand, form the basis of the future year Do Minimum networks.

2.2 Rail Supply

In developing the HS2 Ltd. future year Do Minimum scenarios, rail schemes up to 2019 were
identified , using the following sources:
• The Network Rail Strategic Business Plan (to 2014);
• The TfL Business Plan (to 2019); and
• Timetable/ capacity enhancements included within the DfT Network Modelling Framework
(NMF), to 2019. The NMF is a strategic model the DfT use to assist policy formulation. The
most recent version was developed earlier this year and is documented in a report dated May
2009.
No additional schemes were appropriate to incorporate into the models beyond 2019, such that
the future year rail networks are assumed to be consistent between 2021 and 2031.
Depending on the type of proposed rail upgrade and its geographical location, the scheme was
incorporated into the appropriate models Future Year Do Minimum scenario.
The DfT provided the actual timetables from the NMF for both the base year and future years.
Since the base year 2007/ 08 rail transit lines were developed directly from these timetables, in
order to ensure consistency with wider government policy, the future year timetables were also
converted into emme2 format, for direct use in the model.
It is noted that some of the schemes in CP4, including Access for All, Network Rail Discretionary
Fund, and National Stations Improvement Programme do not impact on the PLANET modelling
and for this reason were not incorporated into the modelling process.
In addition, although the PLANET Long Distance model includes representative London
Underground links between key national rail stations, these are for the purpose of allowing
interchange between key rail services. Since this is represented in more detail in PLANET South,
Underground improvements were not incorporated into the PLANET Long Distance model.
For the HS2 Ltd. study, strategic rail schemes across Great Britain were identified for inclusion in
the future year Do Minimum scenarios. Whilst these schemes are included in the Do Minimum
scenarios, for the purposes of this study, only those which affect the West Coast Main Line
between London Euston and the West Midlands (and Trent Valley) and the Chiltern Line between
London Marylebone and the West Midlands have been highlighted.
2.2.1 Future Year Do Minimum Rail Network

The 2021 and 2031 Do Minimum rail networks are considered to be identical for modelling
purposes within the PLANET framework. Although only the proposals which broadly affect the
West Coast Main Line between London Euston and the West Midlands (and Trent Valley) and the
Chiltern Line between London Marylebone and the West Midlands have been highlighted, other
wider schemes are considered appropriate to be included, such as Crossrail, which will provide a
significant link when open.
The following table summarises the future year Do Minimum rail schemes within the study area.
In addition, these are summarised graphically on Figure 2.1.

Table 2.1 – Future Year Do Minimum Rail Schemes along London – Birmingham Corridor
Control Scheme Classification (for model inclusion) Source

Period\
Scheme
Completion
Strategic Midlands
South
Date
NMF\ Network
Thameslink Key Output 0 2009
Rail
Intercity Express Programme (IEP) –
new rolling stock enabling capacity
increase and associated timetable
changes as per IEP business case. NMF\ Network
CP4 - 2014
This includes IEP replacement services Rail
running on the East Coast Main Line,
the Great Western Main Line and the
West Coast Main Line
Reading Station Area Redevelopment
CP4 - 2014 Network Rail
Birmingham New Street Rebuild
Bletchley – Milton Keynes Station
Upgrade
Extension of (Birmingham) cross city
services to Bromsgrove
Increase Service levels - Redditch
Branch
London Midland HLOS – improved
capacity on London Euston-Milton 2014 NMF
Keynes-Northampton services;
Thameslink Key Output 1- including four
Brighton to Bedford trains per direction, NMF\ Network
2014
per peak. Thameslink services are Rail
diverted from London Bridge
Virgin West coast – including increased
capacity on Birmingham and 2014 NMF
Manchester to London Euston services
Chiltern Railway Chiltern Peak
Strengthening – based on HLOS option 2014 NMF
subfolder LSE Chiltern Option v1
London Underground Improvements:
-Piccadilly Line
- District Line
- Circle Line
- Hammersmith Line 2012 - 2020 TfL
- Metropolitan Line
- Jubilee Line
- 3 car operations on Docklands Light
Rail
Thameslink Key Output 2 – new
timetable specification and increased
2019 NMF
capacity for Thameslink and Great
Northern services
Crossrail – including service
amendments between Reading and
2019 NMF\TfL
Paddington and Liverpool St and
Shenfield
Stratford International Extension
2010 TfL
East London Line- Extension to Dalston
in the north and Croydon/Clapham 2012 TfL
junction in the south
North London Line train lengthening &
2012 TfL/|NR
capacity upgrades
C2C – the HLOS option subfolder LSE
2014 NMF
c2c Option v1

Figure 2.1 – 2021 & 2031 Do Minimum Committed Rail Schemes

Of particular interest to this study are the following:

• WCML – station upgrade at Birmingham New Street and Bletchley remodelling;
• WCML - nine-car Class 390 units assumed to be lengthened to eleven-cars;
• WCML – IEP capacity increases via new rolling stock; and
• Chiltern Line – capacity increase through train lengthening in the peaks.
2.3 Rail Demand

Demand modelling for this study used the same approach as that of HS2 Ltd. The rail demand
assumptions used within the HS2 Ltd. model framework were consistent with the assumptions
underpinning the NMF modelling undertaken by DfT. Passenger Demand Forecast Handbook
(PDFH 4.1) guidance was applied within the framework of “EDGE” (Exogenous Demand Growth
Estimation).
The EDGE assignment used the 2004 NMF base data for demand and revenue. All demand
drivers except for fares, GVA, employment and population were supplied by the DfT. Fares were
assumed to rise at a rate of RPI +1% for all ticket types while employment and population drivers
we obtained from TEMPRO 5.4.
GDP forecasts were used which take account of the recession with capped long distance
elasticities. Demand growth is capped at the level forecast to occur in 2031 before the recession
although under the new GDP scenario this will be reached at a later date (2033).
Initial forecast demand matrices were produced for the three PLANET models, with the overall
growth in demand indicated.
Table 2.2 – Do Minimum Rail Forecast Demand
Model 2008 Demand 2021 Demand % Growth 2033 Demand % Growth

(2008 to 2021) (2008 to 2033)
PLANET
1,549,812 1,973,585 27% 2,269,642 46%
South
PLANET
34,436 40,507 18% 49,384 43%
Midlands
PLANET
974,804 1,249,825 28% 1,583,300 62%
Strategic
This shows that strategic demand is forecast to increase significantly, by over 60% between 2008
and 2033. Local demand increases are still noteworthy, with growth in PLANET Midlands and
PLANET South forecast to be in excess of 40% between 2008 and 2033.

2.4 Road Supply

Only PLANET Long Distance includes a highway element. Due to the strategic representation of
the highway network within the PLANET Long Distance model, only schemes on sections of the
strategic highway network were incorporated into the Do Minimum Scenarios. No junction
improvement schemes were included as the model functionality does not include this level of
detail.
In developing its future year Do Minimum road network, the HS2 Ltd. study used two key sources
of data as follows:
• The Highways Agency Business Plan 2009-10. This contains the Highways Agency forward
workload, through to 2015; and
• Beyond 2015, in order to ensure the inclusion of the ‘most likely given published plans’
schemes, the DfT provided a list of road schemes that were included within the National
Transport Model (NTM), broadly ensuring consistency with the Motorways and Major Trunk
Roads Paper, January 2009.
For the HS2 Ltd. study, strategic highway infrastructure schemes across Great Britain were
identified for inclusion in the future year Do Minimum scenarios. Whilst these schemes are
included in the Do Minimum scenarios, for the purposes of this study, only those which broadly fall
along the M1/ M6 and the M40 between London and the West Midlands have been highlighted.
The existing 2008 Do Minimum highway network within our study area is indicated in Figure 2.2.

Figure 2.2 – 2008 Existing Motorway Network London – Birmingham Corridor

2.4.1 2021 Road Network

The following table summarises the road schemes which are assumed to be operational by 2021,
including schemes which are currently under construction. For information, the source of the
proposed road scheme and the expected year that works will commence is also included.
Table 2.3 – 2021 Do Minimum Road Schemes within HS2 Strategic Alternatives Study Area
Scheme Source Expected Work Start Date
M1 J21 to J30 Widening (Phase 1) Construction 2007

Hard Shoulder Running M40 J16 to 2008
Construction
M42 J3A
Hard Shoulder Running M42 J7 - J9 Construction 2008
Hard Shoulder Running M6 J4 - J5 Construction 2008
Hard Shoulder Running M6 J8 – J10A Construction 2008
Hard Shoulder Running M6 J8-10a HA Business Plan 2009/10
M25 widening J16-23 HA Business Plan 2009/10
M25 widening J27-30 HA Business Plan 2009/10
Hard Shoulder Running M6 J5-8 HA Business Plan 2010
Hard Shoulder Running M6 J10a-13 HA Business Plan 2012
Hard Shoulder Running M4 J3-12 HA Business Plan 2011
Hard Shoulder Running M1 J10-13 HA Business Plan 2009/10
M1 J19 to M6 HA Business Plan 2011
A505 Dunstable Northern Bypass HA Business Plan 2011
Hard Shoulder Running M25 J23 – J27 NTM 2012
Hard Shoulder Running M1 J13 to J19 NTM 2018
Hard Shoulder Running M5 J4a – J6 NTM 2015
Figure 2.3 shows graphically the proposed schemes that are assumed to be operational by 2021.
Figure 2.4 provides a summary of the 2021 highway network.

Figure 2.3 – 2021 Do Minimum Committed Motorway Schemes in the London – Birmingham Corridor

Figure 2.4 – 2021 Do Minimum Motorway Network London – Birmingham Corridor

2.5 2031 Road Network

Beyond 2021, the National Transport Model (NTM) included two additional road schemes which
are within the study area. These are indicated in the following table, and summarised in Figures
2.5 & 2.6.
Table 2.4 - 2031 Do Minimum Road Schemes within HS2 Strategic Alternatives Study Area (in addition
to the 2021 schemes)
Scheme Source Expected Work Start Date

Hard Shoulder Running M6 J8 – M5 2019
NTM
J2
By 2031 the key implications for the motorway network are as follows:
• M40 J3 – J16 remains at 3 lanes and J1A to J3 4 lanes;
• M1 from M25 to M6 effectively 4 lanes with HSR operating between M1 J10-19;
• M6 from M1 to J2 3 lanes;
• M6 HSR operating between J2 – J13; and
• M5 HSR operating between J4 to M6 J8.

Figure 2.5 – 2031 Do Minimum Committed Motorway Schemes in London – Birmingham Corridor

Figure 2.6 – 2031 Do Minimum Motorway Network London – Birmingham Corridor

2.6 Road Demand

In order to ensure consistency with DfT guidance, this study and that of HS2 Ltd adopted the
approach outlined in webTAG unit 3.15.2 when developing the future year road demand forecasts.
This included using TEMPRO 5.4 to calculate growth factors by purpose (business, commuting
and other). Growth at Heathrow airport was based on the forecasts from the SKM Surface Access
Model, which was developed on behalf of the DfT.
Only PLANET Long Distance includes a highway element, therefore demand matrices were only
developed for this model. Furthermore, the highway matrices exclude trips that are less than 50
miles in length, as it is assumed that these will not transfer to the strategic rail network. To ensure
that appropriate flows are represented on the highway network within the modelling process, the
local trips are assigned via a pre-load.
The ‘strategic’ highway demand matrices are summarised in Table 2.5.
Table 2.5 – HS2 Forecast Strategic Highway Demand Matrices
Sector 2007/08 2021 2008 -2021 2031 2021 -2031 2008- 2031
Matrix Total Matrix Total % Increase Matrix Total % Increase % Increase
Business 1,340,083 1,655,263 24% 1,902,849 15% 42%
Other 2,103,305 2,739,340 30% 3,139,585 15% 49%
Commuter 1,335,254 1,612,916 21% 1,825,618 13% 37%
Total 4,780,650 6,009,540 26% 6,870,083 14% 44%
This indicates that highway usage between 2008 and 2021 is forecast to grow by approximately
26%. Further growth of 14% is forecast between 2021 and 2031, giving a total increase in
strategic highway trips of 44% between 2008 and 2031.

3. Future Travel Conditions

3.1 Introduction
Chapter 2 outlined the key assumptions that were adopted in developing the HS2 Ltd. Do
Minimum scenarios. This section summarises the likely magnitude of demand and its associated
pressures on the rail and road network within the study area, in both 2021 and 2031.
3.2 Rail
3.2.1 Rail Demand
The forecast rail demand and its associated growth was discussed in more detail in Section 2.3, is
summarised in Table 3.1.
Table 3.1 – Do Minimum Forecast Rail Demand
Model 2008 Demand 2021 Demand % Growth 2033 Demand % Growth

(2008 to 2021) (2008 to 2033)
PLANET
1,549,812 1,973,585 27% 2,269,642 46%
South
PLANET
34,436 40,507 18% 49,384 43%
Midlands
PLANET Long
974,804 1,249,825 28% 1,583,300 62%
Distance
This indicates that long distance trips, as represented in the PLANET Long Distance are forecast
to have the highest growth rate, with demand increasing by over 60% between now and 2031.
Demand in the local models, PLANET Midlands and PLANET South is forecast to increase by
over 40%. This represents a considerable increase in demand from today’s levels.
3.2.2 Forecast Implications for Travel on the Rail Network

In order to determine the forecast implications for both passenger volumes and crowding in the
London to Birmingham corridor, analysis was initially undertaken in the PLANET Long Distance
model. Crowding is defined as a proportion of the total passenger numbers to seated capacity.
The PLD model is an all day (16 hour) model. Outputs from the model, showing only WCML long
distance services currently operated by Virgin trains are included, while the long distance Chiltern
services, ie those going to Banbury or beyond in a northbound direction, or High Wycombe and
beyond in a southbound direction, are summarised in Figures 3.1, 3.2 & 3.3.
The following key observations were noted:
• Demand on the WCML long distance services is likely to increase by almost 140% up to
2033, with forecast (two-way) daily passenger volumes increasing from approximately 44,500
to 105,700. This is considerably larger than the average rail growth of 62%. However, it is
noted that the PLD 2007/8 demand on the WCML does not include the effect of the higher
service frequencies on some routes in the December 2008 timetable. This has led to a
significant increase in trips such that the base year modelled flows on this line are lower than
current patronage figures;
• The capacity of WCML long distance services, north of Milton Keynes is forecast to increase
by 54% between 2007/ 08 and 2021;

• Demand on the WCML is forecast to increase by almost 60% between 2021 and 2033, a
period of substantial growth, when no additional capacity measures are planned;
• The forecast demand increase on the WCML is significant and the crowding plots suggest
that the growth in demand is likely to be greater than the capacity increases, as crowding
levels are likely to increase from approximately 50% to almost 80%;
• Passenger demand on the Chiltern line is highest south of Oxford and is forecast to increase
by approximately 35% between 2008 and 2033 from 7,950 to 10,600 two way passenger
trips;
• The capacity of the long distance Chiltern line services is forecast to increase by 40% by
2021; and
• Passenger crowding levels along the Chiltern line are much lower than the WCML, with
existing crowding levels at approximately 35% in both 2008 and 2033.

Figure 3.1 – PLANET WCML & Chiltern Line Long Distance Rail Passenger Volumes (two way)

Figure 3.2 – PLD Rail Seated Capacity (16 hour 2 way) on WCML & Chiltern Long Distance Services

Figure 3.3 - PLANET WCML & Chiltern Line Long Distance Rail Passenger Crowding

3.3 Highway
3.3.1 Highway Demand
The strategic highway demand (ie excluding local trips of less than 50 miles) is summarised in
Section 2.6. As summarised in Table 3.2, demand increases by over 25% up to 2021 and over
40% to 2031. As per the rail demand, this represents a significant increase in demand.
Table 3.2 – Forecast Highway Demand Matrices
Sector 2007/08 2021 2008 -2021 2031 2021 -2031 2008- 2031
Matrix Total Matrix Total % Increase Matrix Total % Increase % Increase
Business 1,340,083 1,655,263 24% 1,902,849 15% 42%
Other 2,103,305 2,739,340 30% 3,139,585 15% 49%
Commuter 1,335,254 1,612,916 21% 1,825,618 13% 37%
Total 4,780,650 6,009,540 26% 6,870,083 14% 44%
3.3.2 Forecast Implications for Travel on Highway Network

Whilst the PLANET model caters for strategic highway movements, incorporating the forecast
future years demand and supply networks into PLD as described above, the main focus of the
model is on rail flows. Upon examining the assigned highway flows from the PLD model it was
considered that there were some routing anomalies between the M1\/M6 and M40 corridors.
Furthermore initial runs indicated that the model was not sensitive to enough to undertake the
detailed testing of highway packages, consequently the highway packages have been assessed
using the DfT’s NTM (National Transport Model).
Whilst the above issues are not significant in the PLD Model, as the highway assignment is used
essentially to generate costs for the mode split model, they are of more importance in identifying
and designing potential highway interventions. Consequently in deriving the forecast base case
‘Do Minimum’ traffic conditions, for these purposes, traffic flows have been considered directly
from traffic counts, for 2008, extracted from the Highways Agency TRADS database.
In considering the future year demand, the growth factors from the Road Transport Forecasts
2008 (RTF 08) were applied to the observed 2008 traffic flows, producing forecasts for 2021 and
2031. RTF08 gives similar growth forecasts to those in presented in Table 3.2 above, with
increases of approximately 25% to 2021 and of 44% to 2031. Flows have been considered for the
annual average hour mean traffic flow and for the highest peak hour.
In considering the capacity of the road network, the maximum realistic flow (QC), based on advice
from the Highways Agency and considering the COBA manual speed flow curves, has been set at
2,000 vehicles per hour per lane for the purposes of this study. The same schemes identified in
Section 2.4 have been considered when forecasting future year volume over capacity ratios.
Using the above methodology, Figure 3.4 summarises the forecast average hourly, two way traffic
volumes on the highway network between Birmingham and London. Figures 3.5 and 3.6 show the
peak hour volume over capacity ratio for southbound and northbound traffic flows respectively.
With relation to the peak hour volume over capacity Figures 3.5 and 3.6 show that by 2031:
• The western sections of the M25 are forecast to be operating at over 90% during the peak
hour;
• The M40 between Oxford and London is forecast to be operating at over 100% capacity in
the peak hour, reaching similar levels immediately to the north of Oxford;
/Final Baselining Report.doc

• The M40 is forecast to have a volume over capacity of over 90% between Warwick and the
Birmingham motorway box.
• The M42, both to the east and west of the M40, is forecast to be one of the most congested
points on the network with a peak hour volume over capacity of up to 134% and generally are
close to 100%.
• The M1 north of London is likely to be operating at over 100% capacity.
A comparison with results from PLD suggests that generally the same areas of the network
are identified as being congested in the observed future years.
/Final Baselining Report.doc

Figure 3.4 – Forecast Average Hourly Two-Way Traffic Volumes (Observed Flows)

Figure 3.5 – Forecast Peak Hour Volume over Capacity Southbound and Eastbound (Observed Flows)

Figure 3.6 – Forecast Peak Hour Volume over Capacity Northbound and Westbound (Observed Flows)

4. Conclusions
In order to ensure consistency with the approach used by HS2 Ltd., the modelling framework
developed for use by HS2 Ltd. is used in this study. This enables a comparison to be made
between the options assessed in this study and the analysis undertaken by HS2 Ltd.
All the baseline assumptions documented in this report are consistent with the HS2 Ltd. baseline
as of late November 2009.
Within the PLANET modelling framework, a Base Year 2007/ 08 Model was developed, along with
two future year ‘Do Minimum’, or Reference Case scenarios, 2021 and 2031. The road and rail
schemes that are assumed to be implemented within the study area – broadly defined as the West
Midlands to London corridor – along with their associated demand, form the basis of the future
year Do Minimum networks.
On the rail side the future year schemes that are assumed to be delivered by 2021/ 31 include:
• WCML – station upgrade at Birmingham New Street and Bletchley remodelling;
• WCML - nine-car Class 390 units assumed to be lengthened to eleven-cars;
• WCML – IEP capacity increases via new rolling stock; and
• Chiltern Line – capacity increase through train lengthening in the peaks.
Strategic rail demand in PLANET Long Distance is forecast to increase significantly, by over 60%
between 2008 and 2033.
On the highway side, the key motorway schemes that are likely to be constructed mean the 2031
motorway network will operate as follows:
• M40 J3 – J16 remains at 3 lanes and J1A to J3 4 lanes;
• M1 from M25 to M6 effectively 4 lanes with HSR operating between M1 J10-19;
• M6 from M1 to J2 3 lanes, with HSR operating between M6 J2 – J13; and
• M5 HSR operating between J4 to M6 J8.
Strategic highway demand is forecast to increase by 44% between 2008 and 2031.
The future year ‘Do Minimum’ scenarios and their associated demand were used to forecast the
likely pressures on the rail and road network within the study area, in both 2021 and 2033. Key
forecast strategic rail implications include:
• Demand on the WCML long distance services is likely to increase by almost 140% up to
2033, a higher increase than the average rail growth of 62%. However, it is noted that the
PLD 2007/8 demand on the WCML does not include the effect of the higher service
frequencies on some routes in the December 2008 timetable. This has led to a significant
increase in trips such that the base year modelled flows on this line are lower than current
patronage figures;
• The capacity of WCML long distance services, north of Milton Keynes is forecast to increase
by 54% between 2007/ 08 and 2021;
• Demand on the WCML is forecast to increase by almost 60% between 2021 and 2033, a
period of substantial growth, when no additional capacity measures are planned;
• The forecast demand increase on the WCML is significant and the crowding model suggests
that the growth in demand is likely to be greater than the capacity increases, resulting in
crowding levels increasing from approximately 50% to around 80%;

• Passenger demand on the Chiltern line is highest south of Oxford and is forecast to increase
by approximately 35% between 2008 and 2033 from 7,950 to 10,600 two way passenger
trips;
• The capacity of the long distance Chiltern line services is forecast to increase by 40% by
2021; and
• Passenger crowding levels along the Chiltern line are much lower than the WCML, with
existing crowding levels at approximately 35% in both 2008 and 2033.
On the strategic highway network, flows are forecast to increase by approximately 44% between
2008 and 2031. By 2031 the impacts of this growth on the highway network between London and
Birmingham include:
• The western sections of the M25 are forecast to be operating at over 90% capacity during the
peak hour;
• The M40 between Oxford and London is forecast to be operating at over 100% capacity in
the peak hour, reaching similar levels immediately to the north of Oxford;
• The M40 is forecast to be at over 90% volume over capacity between Warwick and the
Birmingham motorway box.
• The M42, both to the east and west of the M40, is forecast to be one of the most congested
points on the network with a peak hour volume over capacity of up to 134% and generally
close to 100%.
• The M1 north of London is likely to be operating at over 100% capacity.
These significant increases in traffic volumes are likely to result in the key motorways operating at
over 90% of capacity in the annual average peak hour and are likely to result in significant delays.
The forecasts from PLD generally highlight the same areas of the network as the key areas of
future year congestion.

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High Speed 2 Strategic Alternatives Study

JOB NUMBER: 5087288 DOCUMENT REF: Baselining Report_001 v5.doc

2 FINAL DRAFT JA JF JT JT 08-12-09

1 DRAFT JA/ JF JF JT JT 24-9-09

Revision Purpose Description Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date

5087288/Final Baselining Report.doc

/Final Baselining Report.doc 2

1.1 Structure of this Report

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2.2 Rail Supply

2.2.1 Future Year Do Minimum Rail Network

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Control Scheme Classification (for model inclusion) Source

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Figure 2.1 – 2021 & 2031 Do Minimum Committed Rail Schemes

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Of particular interest to this study are the following:

2.3 Rail Demand

Model 2008 Demand 2021 Demand % Growth 2033 Demand % Growth

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2.4 Road Supply

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Figure 2.2 – 2008 Existing Motorway Network London – Birmingham Corridor

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2.4.1 2021 Road Network

Scheme Source Expected Work Start Date

M1 J21 to J30 Widening (Phase 1) Construction 2007

Hard Shoulder Running M6 J4 - J5 Construction 2008

Hard Shoulder Running M6 J8 – J10A Construction 2008

Hard Shoulder Running M6 J8-10a HA Business Plan 2009/10

M25 widening J16-23 HA Business Plan 2009/10

M25 widening J27-30 HA Business Plan 2009/10

Hard Shoulder Running M6 J5-8 HA Business Plan 2010

Hard Shoulder Running M6 J10a-13 HA Business Plan 2012

Hard Shoulder Running M4 J3-12 HA Business Plan 2011

Hard Shoulder Running M1 J10-13 HA Business Plan 2009/10

M1 J19 to M6 HA Business Plan 2011

A505 Dunstable Northern Bypass HA Business Plan 2011

Hard Shoulder Running M25 J23 – J27 NTM 2012

Hard Shoulder Running M1 J13 to J19 NTM 2018

Hard Shoulder Running M6 J13 – J19 NTM 2015

Hard Shoulder Running M5 J4a – J6 NTM 2015

Hard Shoulder Running M6 J2 – J4 NTM 2016

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Figure 2.4 – 2021 Do Minimum Motorway Network London – Birmingham Corridor

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2.5 2031 Road Network

Scheme Source Expected Work Start Date

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Figure 2.6 – 2031 Do Minimum Motorway Network London – Birmingham Corridor

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2.6 Road Demand

Business 1,340,083 1,655,263 24% 1,902,849 15% 42%

Other 2,103,305 2,739,340 30% 3,139,585 15% 49%

Commuter 1,335,254 1,612,916 21% 1,825,618 13% 37%

Total 4,780,650 6,009,540 26% 6,870,083 14% 44%

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