Americans Debt Styles by Age and Over Time PDF
Americans Debt Styles by Age and Over Time PDF
Americans Debt Styles by Age and Over Time PDF
RE S E A RCH RE P O R T
Copyright © November 2015. Urban Institute. Permission is granted for reproduction of this file, with attribution to
the Urban Institute. Cover image by Tim Meko.
Contents
Acknowledgments iv
Notes 37
References 38
Statement of Independence 41
Acknowledgments
The Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center (HFPC) was launched with generous support at
the leadership level from the Citi Foundation and the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation.
Additional support was provided by the Ford Foundation and the Open Society Foundations.
Ongoing support for HFPC is also provided by the Housing Finance Council, a group of firms and
individuals supporting high-quality independent research that informs evidence-based policy
development. Funds raised through the Housing Finance Council provide flexible resources, allowing
HFPC to anticipate and respond to emerging policy issues with timely analysis. This funding supports
HFPC’s research, outreach and engagement, and general operating activities.
This report was funded by these combined sources. We are grateful to them and to all our funders,
who make it possible for Urban to advance its mission.
The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Urban Institute,
its trustees, or its funders. Funders do not determine our research findings or the insights and
recommendations of our experts. Further information on the Urban Institute’s funding principles is
available at www.urban.org/support.
Americans’ Debt Styles by Age and
over Time
This research report, the first in a series, reviews five years of consumer credit data to better
understand the debt styles of American consumers: how those styles differ for different age groups, and
how those styles have evolved. Subsequent reports will explore other aspects of the data, as well as
raise, and attempt to answer, some questions about why the data look as they do.
Our data consist of a random 2 percent sample of five years of depersonalized consumer data
(2010–2014) from a major credit bureau. Consumers were chosen based on the last two digits of their
personal identification number (assigned by the credit bureau for internal use). This generated a total of
5.314 million consumers for the August 2010 draw. The same information for each consumer was
collected each August from 2010 through 2014, creating panel data with five snapshots for each
consumer in the panel. If a consumer dropped out of the data (for example, because he or she passed
away), a new consumer was added in a manner that retains randomness in the sample. All records were
stripped of personally identifiable information, and no data on race/ethnicity, gender, or income were
1 2
included. The data included zip code, age, Vantage score, information on debt in collection, and
balance and payment information for each of the following trade types: auto loan, credit card, student
loan, home equity line of credit, first mortgage, and second mortgage.
Test how much you know about consumer debt by taking our quiz on the next page.
Debt Style Pop Quiz
Q1: What kind of consumer debt do most Americans carry?
a. No debt
b. Credit card only
c. Credit card and mortgage
d. Credit card and auto
e. Student loan and auto
Q2: At what age are borrowers most likely to have auto debt?
a. 20s and 30s
b. 30s and 40s
c. 40s and 50s
d. 50s and 60s
e. 60s and up
Q4: The borrower groups with the lowest credit scores are those with what kind(s) of debt?
a. No debt
b. Auto loans only
c. Auto loans and credit cards
d. Auto and student loans
e. Auto loans, credit cards, mortgages, HELOCs, and student loans
Q5: Those with mortgage debt typically have less mortgage debt than other Americans if they have
a. Only mortgage debt
b. Mortgages and auto loans
c. Mortgages and HELOCs
d. Mortgages, auto loans, and HELOCs
e. Mortgages, auto loans, and student loans
Answers: Q1: a (followed by b); Q2: b; Q3: e; Q4: a (followed by b); Q5: a.
If you answered all five questions correctly, you don’t have to read this paper; you should have
helped us write it. If you answered four questions correctly, you are a very astute observer of the debt
scene and you may or may not benefit from reading on. If you answered three or fewer questions
correctly, we promise you will learn something if you keep reading.
Those without debt tend to be quite young: approximately 54.5 percent of consumers ages 18–22 are
3
debt free, as are 39.2 percent of those between 23 and 27 (figure 1A). The percentage of borrowers
with no debt drops steadily as borrowers age, falling to 18.1 percent for the 63–67 age group, after
4
which it rises again, reaching 36.1 percent for those older than 77. And balances follow a similar
pattern. Figure 2A shows that, for those with debt, the debt burden is lowest for the very young and the
very old, peaking for borrowers between ages 38 and 52.
Figure 1A shows five trend lines, one for each year between 2010 and 2014. For consumers
younger than 48 years old, the percentage without debt of any kind has dropped steadily; as the
economy has improved, consumers have been comfortable increasing their leverage.
Figure 3A (page 9) shows the median 2014 credit scores of all consumers with and without debt.
Our analysis reveals that, within each age cohort, those without debt tend to have much lower Vantage
scores. For example, the 39.2 percent of 23–27-year-olds with no debt have a median Vantage score of
524, versus 669 for those who have debt. This difference is a bit narrower for older consumers, but still
quite dramatic. Those over age 77 who have no debt have a median Vantage score of 675, versus 805
for consumers with debt. This suggests that those who have no debt have not built the credit history
necessary to obtain debt, rather than the alternative, that they have no need for debt. Across age
groups, younger consumers tend to have much lower credit scores than older consumers. For example,
the median Vantage score for consumers 30 or younger is no more than 650; but it is more than 780 for
consumers 68 or older.
60
40
50
30
40
4
3
2
0
20 1
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
20
30
% of Consumers W ith Debt
15
3
4
2 20
10 1
0
4
3
5
2
0
1
10
0
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
40
10.0
% of Consumers W ith Debt
30
7.5
20
5.0
10
2.5
0 1
0
2
4
3 4
3
2
1
0.0 0
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
60,000
3,000
Median Balance ($)
2,000
20,000
1,000
4
3
2
1
0 4
3
2
1
0 0
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
16,000
14,000
14,000
Median Balance ($)
4
3
12,000 2
1 12,000
0
10,000
10,000
8,000 4
0
3
1
2
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
160,000
35,000
140,000
Median Balance ($)
30,000
120,000 2
3
4
1
0
100,000 25,000
80,000 4
3 20,000
2
1
0
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
The result that the debt burden is lowest for the youngest and oldest age group is somewhat at odds
with the economic literature on the life-cycle model of consumption. The model suggests that a
consumer’s level of consumption should be proportional to average lifetime income rather than actual
income at any given age (Friedman 1956; Hall 1978; Modigliani and Brumberg 1954). That is, younger
age groups theoretically consume more than their income, but as their income rises through the years,
their consumption won’t rise proportionately. Instead, much of the rising income is saved for retire-
ment. During retirement, while income is low, people maintain their lifestyle by living off their savings.
We are not the first to show that this pattern does not hold. We support the conclusion of a number
of earlier empirical studies that consumer’s actual choices differ from those of the life-cycle model of
consumption in a number of ways: First, consumers tend to borrow and consume less than predicted
early in their lifetimes. Second, they also tend to consume more and save less than predicted in middle
age, when they have their highest earnings; consequently they do not have enough savings to maintain
their consumption levels in retirement (Bernanke 1984; Carroll 1997; Flavin 1981; Hall and Mishkin
1982; Mankiw and Shapiro 1985; Shapiro and Slemrod 2003; Souleles 1999; Stephens 2003).
Further, younger consumers tend to have lower credit scores than older consumers; and, within an
age group, borrowers with no debt have lower credit scores than those with debt. Both facts support
the earlier conclusion of Wilcox (1989) and Zeldes (1989): consumers avoid debt because they are
constrained on what they can borrow and how much it costs, rather than because they have no need for
debt.
Apart from this report, little in the literature demonstrates how the type and the amount of debt, as
well as consumers credit scores by debt styles, change across age groups.
These debt patterns reflect lifestyle changes as consumers get older: they finish their higher
education and largely pay off the associated debt in their 20s and 30s, finance and become auto and
homeowners in their 30s through their 60s, and accumulate enough equity on their homes to finance
other spending against that equity in their late 40s through late 60s.
Unfortunately, our numbers for credit card debt do not allow us to differentiate between those who
use credit cards as a transaction vehicle, paying off their bills each month, and those who use credit
6
cards as a credit vehicle to finance their purchases over time. We can see, however, that 40 percent of
consumers in their early 20s have credit card spending, increasing steadily to 75 percent of consumers
in their 60s and then falling again into their 70s and beyond (figure 1B).
Excluding credit card spending, the percentage of consumers without any auto, mortgage, HELOC,
or student debt follows a more symmetric U shape: 80 percent of consumers in their early 20s do not
have these types of debt. This share of consumers quickly falls to only 40 percent in their late 30s
through late 50s, but rises again to more than 70 percent in their late 60s and older (figure 4).
As shown in figure 2A, consumers’ median total debt balance rises from $10,000 in their mid-20s to
$65,000 in their late 30s through early 50s, then falls again as they move to older age cohorts.
While the general inverted-U age patterns apply to the median balance for each type of debt, there
are distinct differences among the debt types. Consumers with auto loans have the highest debt burden
in from their late 30s to their 40s ($14,000, figure 2D); consumers with mortgage debt are most
burdened in their 30s and 40s ($160,000, figure 2E); and consumers with HELOCs owe the most in their
late 40s ($36,000, figure 2F). The amount of student debt peaks from the 30s to the early 40s ($15,000,
figure 2C), an older age than the peak percentage of consumers who have student loans, perhaps
reflecting higher student debt for those attending professional schools (Baum and Johnson 2015). Note
The percentage of auto and student loan borrowers has grown from 2010 to 2014, as have the
balances of these debt types (figures 1C, 1D, 2C, and 2D; table B.3). For example, 32 percent of
consumers in their 30s and 40s had auto loans in 2010, rising to 35 percent in 2014; auto debt balances
for this cohort rose from $13,000 in 2010 to $15,000 in 2014. Similarly, 20 percent of consumers in
their 20s had student loans in 2010, rising to 23 percent in 2014; student debt balances for this cohort
rose from $12,000 in 2010 to $14,000 in 2014.
By contrast, the percentage of consumers with mortgage debt and HELOC debt has fallen,
particularly for HELOC debt (figures 1E, 1F; table B.2). The proportion of consumers holding mortgage
debt for the peak age cohort—late 40s—has declined from 43 percent in 2010 to 39 percent in 2014.
This parallels the steady decline in the homeownership rate. However, for borrowers with mortgages,
the median debt balance has risen from $150,000 in 2010 to $160,000 in 2014.
We find 12.5 percent of consumers in their 50s held HELOC debt in 2010, falling to 9.5 percent in
2014; their median HELOC balance fell from $38,000 in 2010 to $37,000 in 2014. The declining
percentage of consumers with HELOCs most likely reflects a combination of pay-downs, foreclosures,
and extremely tight credit following the financial crisis.
The percentage of consumers with credit card debt has grown from 2010 to 2014 for younger age
groups (those under 48), but balances have remained largely static (figures 1B and 2B). However, for
older age groups, the percentage with debt has been largely stagnant but average credit card balances
have risen. For example, for consumers ages 63 to 67 there has been an increase from $2,300 in 2010 to
$2,700 in 2014.
Y Y
A
600
N
600
N
500
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
750 750
Median Vantage Score
700
700
650
650 Y
N
Y N
600
600
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
750
750
Median Vantage Score
700
700
Y
Y
650
N
650
N
600
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
Older consumers tend to have higher credit scores than younger consumers. The median 2014 Vantage
score for consumers in their 20s is 630; this number rises to more than 760 for consumers in their 60s
and 70s (figure 3A and table B.4).
Within each age cohort, consumers with credit card spending have much higher median credit
scores than those without, with an average 160-point gap over all age groups. While the relationship is
quite strong, the causality is unclear. It is possible that those with credit card spending were those with
credit scores high enough to get cards. It is also possible that responsible use of cards increased their
credit scores. While the gap is largest for the youngest age groups and declines with age, the median
Vantage score for consumers in their 70s with credit card spending is still 80 points higher than the
score for those without (figure 3B, table B.4).
For consumers younger than their mid-60s, median credit scores are higher for consumers with
mortgage debt than for those without—undoubtedly, in part, reflecting the difficulty those with low
scores have in getting a mortgage. The largest gap—130 points—occurs in the late 20s and 30s, as
holding a mortgage likely also reflects increased stability and, of course, the transition from renter to
owner (figure 3E). This gap grows narrower as consumers age, and disappears when consumers reach
their mid-60s, when many of those who had mortgages have paid them off. For those in their late 60s
and older, consumers who still have mortgages actually tend to have lower credit scores than those who
don’t.
For those with student loans, borrowers in their late 30s, 40s, and older have lower credit scores
than borrowers with no student loans (figure 3C); for auto loans, borrowers in their late 50s and older
have lower credit scores than those without auto debt (figure 3D); and for HELOCs, borrowers in their
early 70s and older have credit scores than those without the debt (figure 3F). We believe this
crossover point reflects the age when many of the most creditworthy customers have paid off the debt
in question.
17 Debt Styles
Each of the five major types of debt reflects a different aspect of consumers’ lifestyle needs. For a
complete picture of a consumer’s debt style, we have to look at what combinations of debts the
consumer carries at any given time. The consumer may have any combination of auto, mortgage,
HELOC, or student loan debt. That gives us 16 combinations; adding borrowers with only credit card
balances gives us 17 debt styles. The 10 most popular combinations are shown in figure 4 (see table B.1
for a full list of all 17 debt styles). For our analysis, we have not paired credit card debt with other debt,
as we cannot distinguish transaction balances from revolving balances.
The top six debt styles among consumers with a credit record, in descending order, are
However, this rank order is not constant once we divide consumers into age groups. Rankings
within age groups reveal distinct patterns of debt styles, reflecting consumers’ lifestyle changes over
time.
Except for the “no debt” and “credit card only” styles, which have a U shape, debt styles over age follow
an inverted U shape, first rising and then falling as consumers move to older age groups. Figure 4 shows
age patterns for each debt style.
100% 0.2
0.1
0 1.4
1.5
0 3.4 3.3 3.5 3
1.5 3.9 4.7 4.8
0.1 5.9 6 6 5.6 0
0.3
0.1
1.9 1.5 1
0.5
7.1 3.5 3.1 1.8 0.1
0.9 1.5
5.8 0.5 0.2 0.2
0.7 2.9 3.4 1.7 1.1 1.5 2.3
1.8 2.4 0.2
0.1 1.7 1.1 3.5 2.9 0.5 5.1
0.4 3.3 0.4 3.3
90% 4.9 2.9 1 0.6 4.1
3.3 4.3 0.9 4.3 0.6
0.7 1.8 4.7 4.7
10 11.7 2.9 2 4.8 0.8 6.6 6.9
4.9 1.7 1.2
8.1 1.5 9.3
0.6 9.5
80%
3.5 13.4 13.8 11.1
11.3 13.3 10.8
12.4
7.7
12
70% 11.4
14.8
25.6 10.8
13.6 12.4 11.8 11 10.6
10.8 15
43.9
14.2
40%
13.5
36.9
13.5
14.2
15.6 29.2
18.6 23.1
30%
54.5
20% 39.2
35.2 36.1
32
29.1
26.9
24.2
21.4 21.9
10% 19.7 19.3
18.1
0%
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
In summary, for the 18 to 27 age group, the top three debt styles are “auto only,” “student loan
only,” and “both auto and student loans”; for the 28 to 32 age group, the top three debt styles are “auto
only,” “student only,” and “mortgage only”; for borrowers over age 32, the top three are “mortgage
only,” “auto loan only,” and “both auto and mortgage loans.”
For a closer and deeper look at age patterns of the debt styles and the interrelationship between
different types of debts, see appendix A.
Conclusion
In this paper, we have looked at debt styles across age groups. The basic patterns are not surprising:
student loan debt is more popular among younger borrowers; mortgages are more popular among
borrowers in their 30, 40s, and 50s. Home equity and “credit card only” debt is more prevalent among
older adults. Vantage scores generally rise with age. Those with mortgage debt in the mix have the
highest total indebtedness.
But there are a number of surprises: Consumers who have no debt have weaker credit scores than
those who have debt. Consumers who have auto debt in combination with any other type of debt
generally have lower credit scores than those who do not have auto debt but do have other debt.
Borrowers in their 20s and early 30s with both mortgage and student loan debt have higher credit
scores than borrowers in their later 30s and 40s with the same combination. Those borrowers who hold
We also find that consumers’ actual debt patterns differ from the predictions of the life-cycle model
of consumption, which can be explained by the constraints on what borrowers can borrow at what cost,
rather than they have no need for debt.
One important note: for credit cards, we cannot differentiate between consumers who use their
credit cards for transactional purposes and consumers who carry a revolving balance. Hence, we did not
consider credit cards when discussing debt styles under each of the auto, mortgage, HELOC, and
student loan sections. Instead, the last section of this appendix is devoted to “credit card only” debt and
credit cards in combination with other types of debt.
Figures in appendix A are broken down to allow us to look more closely at consumers who have
each debt type by debt style and age.
Auto Debt
Figure A.1A shows the percentage of consumers with auto loans by age group, the same picture seen in
figure 1D. For consumers in their 20s, approximately 25 percent have auto debt (figure A.1A): 14
percent have auto debt only (figure A.1B), another 6 percent have auto debt plus student loans (figure
A.1C), and 3 percent have auto, and student loan debt (figure A.1D); the balance have other
combinations. For consumers in their 40s, almost 40 percent have auto debt: 11 percent have auto debt
only, 12.5 percent have auto and mortgage debt, 3 percent have auto, mortgage, and HELOC debt, and
the balance have other combinations.
Figure A.2A shows the median balance for those who have auto debt by debt style. Those who have
auto debt only have lower amounts of auto debt than those who have auto debt in combination with
other debt types. Borrowers who have auto debt plus mortgage debt tend to have higher amounts of
auto debt than borrowers that do not have mortgage debt. This becomes clear when comparing line 2
(auto only) to line 3 (auto + mortgage) and line 5 (auto + mortgage + HELOC), or by comparing line 4
(auto + student loan) to line 6 (auto + mortgage + student loan).
APPENDIX A 15
FIGURE A.1
Debt Styles of Consumers with Auto Loans, by Age Cohort
A. Percentage with auto loans B. Percentage with only auto loans
30 14
25
% of All Consumers
% of All Consumers
12
20 10
15
8
10
6
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
C. Percentage with auto loans + mortgages D. Percentage with auto + student loans
12.5 6
10.0
% of All Consumers
% of All Consumers
4
7.5
5.0
2
2.5
0.0 0
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
E. Percentage with auto + mortgage + HELOC F. Percentage with auto + mortgage + student
3
3
% of All Consumers
% of All Consumers
2
2
1
1
0 0
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
16 APPENDIX A
Figure A.2B shows that for all but the very oldest age groups, borrowers who have auto debt and
auto plus student loan debt (lines 2 and 4) also have lower Vantage scores than borrowers who have
auto debt in combination with mortgage debt (lines 3, 5, and 6).
FIGURE A.2
Median Balance and Vantage Scores on Debt Styles with Auto Loan Components, by Age Cohort
A. Median balance ($) B. Median Vantage score
16,000 800
2
5
14,000 750 6
12,000
700
6
5
3
4
10,000
650
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
Mortgage Debt
Few borrowers have mortgage debt in their 20s. By their late 40s, 40 percent have mortgage debt
(figure A.3). As with auto debt, those who have mortgage debt alone have less average mortgage debt
than those who have mortgage debt as well as another type of debt (figure A.4A). Consumers who also
have HELOC debt have the highest amounts of mortgage debt. Consumers with mortgage debt only
have higher credit scores than those who hold mortgage debt and other debt (figure A.4B).
While credit scores generally increase with age, consumers who have mortgage debt, auto debt,
and student loan debt in their 20s and early 30s tend to have higher credit scores than those who have
that combination by their late 30s and after (figure A.4B). One explanation: mortgage debt is relatively
uncommon in one’s 20s and early 30s, so perhaps those who have this debt at this age have higher
incomes and better credit scores in general. Borrowers with auto debt in any combination with
mortgage debt have lower credit scores than those who have no auto debt.
APPENDIX A 17
FIGURE A.3
Debt Styles of Consumers with Mortgages, by Age Cohort
A. Percentage with mortgage B. Percentage with mortgage only
40
15
30
% of All Consumers
% of All Consumers
10
20
5
10
0 0
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
10.0
% of All Consumers
% of All Consumers
7.5
5.0
1
2.5
0 0.0
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
E. Percentage with mortgage + auto + HELOC F. Percentage with mortgage + auto + student
4
3
% of All Consumers
% of All Consumers
1
1
0 0
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
18 APPENDIX A
FIGURE A.4
Median Balance and Vantage Scores on Debt Styles with Mortgage Components, by Age Cohort
A. Median balance ($) B. Median Vantage score
200,000 800
2
3
4
775
150,000 750
6
725
5
100,000 700
6
4
3
2 675
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
HELOC Debt
HELOC debt is most commonly found as the only form of debt, or in combination with mortgage debt or
mortgage and auto debt (figure A.5). Other combinations are relatively rare. We had noted earlier in the
paper that HELOC debt is skewed to older borrowers, but borrowers who only have HELOC debt are
even older. Those who have HELOC and mortgage debt or HELOC and mortgage and auto debt are
somewhat younger.
Borrowers older than their mid-50s with HELOC debt have less HELOC debt if they have only HELOC
debt or HELOC and auto debt than borrowers whose debt style includes mortgage debt in any form
(figure A.6A). This pattern is reversed for younger borrowers: those who hold HELOC only or HELOC
and auto debt have more HELOC debt than those who hold the HELOC debt in any combination with
mortgage debt. Further investigation is necessary to determine the reason for this.
Credit scores for those with HELOC debt are quite high across the board (figure A.6B). Older borrowers
with HELOC debt or HELOC debt and auto debt have the highest scores. For younger borrowers with
HELOCs, credit scores are fairly constant across debt styles. The only exception is that younger
borrowers (under 50) who have both HELOC and auto debt have lower scores than other debt styles
with HELOC debt.
APPENDIX A 19
FIGURE A.5
Debt Styles fo Consumers with Home Equity Lines of Credit, by Age Cohort
A. Percentage with HELOC B. Percentage with Only HELOC
4
10
3
8
% of All Consumers
% of All Consumers
6
2
1
2
0 0
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
3
% of All Consumers
% of All Consumers
0 0
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
1.25
1.00
% of All Consumers
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups
20 APPENDIX A
Figure A.6. Median Balance and Vantage Scores on Debt Styles with Home Equity Line of Credit
Components
A. Median balance B. Median Vantage score
45000 800
2
1
5
40000
775 3
35000 4 4
750
3
30000
5
1
2 725
25000
700
20000
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
APPENDIX A 21
FIGURE A.7
Debt Styles of Consumers with Student Loans, by Age Cohort
A. Percentage with student loans B. Percentage with student loans only
12.5
20
10.0
15
% of All Consumers
% of All Consumers
7.5
10
5.0
5
2.5
0 0.0
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
6
3
% of All Consumers
% of All Consumers
4
2
2 1
0 0
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
2.0
% of All Consumers
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups
22 APPENDIX A
FIGURE A.8
Median Balance and Vantage Scores on Debt Styles with Student Loan Components
A. Median balance ($) B. Median Vantage score
2
5
1
16000 750 4
3
14000
700
12000 3
1
5
2
650
10000 4
8000
600
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
Credit card balances are lowest for those with only credit card debt and highest among consumers
with credit card, mortgage, and auto debt (figure A.10A). When mortgage debt is found in the mix, in any
form, credit card balances are higher than when it is not. We cannot tell whether these borrowers are
more apt to be carrying revolving balances or whether they are simply more affluent, so their
transactions balances are higher.
Consumers younger than mid-30s with credit card and auto debt have lower credit scores than
other consumers (figure A.10B). For consumers older than this, those with credit card and student loan
APPENDIX A 23
debt have the lowest scores. For borrowers younger than mid-50s, those with mortgage debt have the
highest credit scores. Borrowers older than this with only credit card debt have the highest scores.
FIGURE A.9
Debt Styles of Consumers with Credit Card Debt, by Age Group
A. Percentage with credit card debt B. Percentage with credit card debt only
70 40
% of All Consumers
% of All Consumers
60
30
50
20
40
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
C. Percentage with credit card debt + mortgage D. Percentage with credit card debt + mortgage + auto
15.0 12.5
12.5
10.0
10.0
% of All Consumers
% of All Consumers
7.5
7.5
5.0
5.0
2.5
2.5
0.0 0.0
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
E. Percentage with credit card debt+auto F. Percentage with credit card debt+student
10
6
9
% of All Consumers
8
% of All Consumers
6
2
4 0
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
24 APPENDIX A
FIGURE A.10
Median Balance and Vantage Scores on Debt Styles with Credit Card Components
A. Median balance ($ B. Median Vantage score
2
3
5
5,000 800
4
6
4,000
750
3,000
4
2,000 700
3
5
1,000 6
2
650
18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 53-57 58-62 63-67 68-72 73-77 >77
Age Groups Age Groups
APPENDIX A 25
Appendix B: Detailed Results
Table B.1. Percentage of Consumers with 17 Debt Styles, by Year
26 APPENDIX B
Table B.2. Percentage of Consumers Taking a Type of Debt, by Age Cohort
Age Cohort
Debt
Archive
Type
Year 18–22 23–27 28–32 33–37 38–42 43–47 48–52 53–57 58–62 63–67 68–72 73–77 >77
2010 12.1 25.8 30.9 32.3 32.4 31.8 31.8 30.6 28.2 25.7 20.5 15.4 7.4
2011 12.0 25.0 30.2 31.6 31.9 31.3 31.2 30.1 27.8 25.9 21.3 16.1 7.7
Auto loan 2012 13.3 25.6 30.6 32.2 32.5 32.1 31.5 30.5 28.2 26.7 22.2 16.9 8.1
2013 15.3 26.9 31.9 33.4 33.8 33.4 32.5 31.3 29.0 27.5 23.4 17.8 7.9
2014 17.2 29 33.5 34.9 35.2 35.2 34.0 32.6 30.3 28.3 24.8 19.2 8.4
2010 35.4 46.5 50.5 54.0 57.5 60.5 64.2 68.1 71 74.0 74.1 72.5 60.0
2011 34.4 46.9 51.3 54.4 57.4 60.2 63.5 67.3 70.4 73.7 74.4 72.9 61.0
Credit card 2012 35.7 47.9 52.6 55.3 57.9 60.6 63.5 67.0 70.1 73.8 74.6 73.2 61.0
2013 36.8 48.7 53.8 56.1 58.5 60.9 63.6 66.6 69.8 73.1 74.2 72.2 56.0
2014 39.0 50.4 55.5 57.8 59.9 62.3 64.4 67.1 70.3 72.9 74.3 72.4 55.0
2010 0.1 0.4 2.3 5.2 7.9 10.0 11.5 12.5 12.6 12.2 10.1 7.9 4.1
2011 0.1 0.3 1.7 4.2 6.9 9.0 10.6 11.8 12.1 11.9 10.3 8.1 4.3
HELOC 2012 0.1 0.2 1.2 3.4 6.0 8.0 9.7 11.0 11.4 11.5 10.2 8.2 4.4
2013 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.7 5.0 7.0 8.8 10.0 10.5 10.6 9.7 7.9 4.0
2014 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.4 4.5 6.6 8.3 9.5 10.2 10.0 9.5 7.8 4.0
2010 1.3 10.1 23.7 33.6 39.8 43.2 44.4 43.7 40.3 35.0 27.1 19.6 9.9
2011 1.1 9.2 22.8 32.4 38.7 42.2 43.6 42.9 39.9 35.3 27.8 20.2 10.0
Mortgage 2012 0.9 8.1 21.1 30.5 36.9 40.5 42.0 41.7 39 35.0 28.1 20.6 10.0
2013 0.8 7.4 19.8 28.8 35.1 38.7 40.4 40.0 37.6 33.7 27.7 20.6 9.6
2014 0.7 7.4 20.0 29.2 35.1 39.0 40.6 40.3 38 34.0 28.5 21.4 10.0
2010 8.8 20.2 19.8 14.2 8.8 6.6 7.1 6.9 4.9 2.8 1.5 1.1 0.8
2011 10 21.6 20.9 15.7 9.9 7.1 7.5 7.3 5.5 3.1 1.7 1.2 0.9
Student
2012 10.8 22.0 21.1 16.4 10.7 7.5 7.6 7.5 5.8 3.4 1.8 1.3 1.0
loan
2013 11.1 22.1 21.4 17.3 11.7 8.1 7.7 7.6 6.1 3.6 2.0 1.4 1.0
2014 11.0 23.4 22.4 18.4 12.9 8.9 7.9 7.9 6.4 3.9 2.1 1.4 1.0
APPENDIX B 27
Table B.3. Balance on Type of Consumer Debt by Age Cohort ($)
28 APPENDIX B
Table B.4. Consumers’ Median Vantage Scores with and without a Type of Debt, by Age Cohort
Age Cohort
Debt With and Archive
Type without Debt Year 18– 23– 28– 33– 38– 43– 48– 53– 58– 63– 68– 73–
>77
22 27 32 37 42 47 52 57 62 67 72 77
2010 552 523 524 528 533 537 545 552 583 619 658 676 722
2011 552 524 524 531 536 541 548 554 586 617 656 675 716
With 2012 560 524 525 532 537 542 549 553 583 611 653 673 711
2013 562 524 526 532 538 543 549 553 580 608 647 668 675
2014 574 524 527 533 540 545 551 554 580 615 649 670 675
All
2010 662 668 671 677 688 706 725 745 768 786 796 802 806
2011 661 670 674 680 689 705 723 744 767 785 797 803 806
Without 2012 660 670 675 680 687 701 720 741 764 783 795 801 805
2013 659 669 677 681 686 700 718 739 762 782 794 801 805
2014 657 669 679 683 686 698 716 736 760 781 794 800 805
2010 602 575 586 607 629 650 672 710 744 775 789 796 792
2011 602 579 590 610 628 648 669 704 740 773 789 796 793
With 2012 611 582 593 610 626 645 666 697 732 768 787 794 792
2013 619 586 597 611 628 643 663 690 727 762 784 791 785
Auto 2014 625 592 603 616 631 645 663 687 725 759 783 791 784
loan 2010 647 661 665 668 674 688 706 723 739 755 770 782 784
2011 647 664 671 673 679 691 709 725 741 756 773 784 788
Without 2012 647 664 672 675 678 690 707 725 740 756 772 783 788
2013 646 662 672 675 677 689 706 724 741 757 773 784 789
2014 645 661 673 677 678 689 706 725 741 758 774 786 790
2010 558 527 536 543 549 552 563 582 609 642 667 689 722
2011 568 531 539 546 552 555 566 585 609 640 665 675 718
With 2012 578 531 539 546 552 556 566 584 607 635 663 675 714
2013 580 533 540 547 552 557 566 582 604 631 656 672 675
Credit 2014 582 535 541 548 552 558 568 584 604 637 660 674 675
card 2010 683 694 700 708 717 730 745 763 780 792 800 805 808
2011 682 696 702 709 717 729 744 762 780 792 801 806 808
Without 2012 680 695 701 707 713 725 740 759 778 790 799 804 807
2013 677 695 703 707 712 722 737 756 776 789 798 804 807
2014 673 694 703 707 711 719 734 752 773 788 798 803 807
2010 618 613 621 630 640 654 673 703 734 767 786 794 792
2011 619 618 626 634 643 656 673 701 731 764 786 795 793
With 2012 624 620 629 636 643 655 671 698 727 760 784 793 792
2013 629 623 633 639 645 655 670 695 724 755 780 790 785
2014 632 628 638 643 648 657 671 694 724 754 779 789 784
HELOC
2010 699 699 709 717 727 737 748 761 771 780 787 791 790
2011 696 707 715 721 727 737 749 761 772 780 788 792 791
Without 2012 696 708 716 721 725 735 746 759 771 779 787 791 789
2013 693 709 718 724 725 733 744 758 770 780 787 792 789
2014 686 706 726 730 730 735 746 759 771 780 788 792 789
2010 616 594 585 586 592 605 631 667 715 765 788 796 792
2011 617 599 590 590 595 608 631 666 710 761 788 796 794
Mortgage With
2012 623 604 594 594 598 610 630 664 706 755 785 794 792
2013 628 609 600 597 602 612 631 661 701 747 782 791 786
APPENDIX B 29
2014 631 615 605 600 603 613 631 659 697 744 780 791 784
2010 669 706 714 717 723 732 743 754 765 775 783 786 787
2011 672 711 720 723 726 733 743 754 765 774 784 787 789
Without 2012 672 713 722 724 725 732 741 753 763 773 782 786 788
2013 670 715 726 727 727 732 741 752 763 773 781 785 786
2014 676 718 731 733 732 735 743 753 764 773 782 786 787
2010 616 592 606 630 649 665 686 716 744 771 787 794 792
2011 617 596 610 632 651 665 684 713 742 769 787 795 793
With 2012 623 601 615 633 649 664 681 709 737 766 785 793 792
2013 627 607 620 634 650 663 679 705 734 762 782 790 786
Student 2014 631 612 625 638 652 665 679 705 733 760 782 790 785
loan 2010 633 666 674 665 651 657 687 709 721 730 735 749 752
2011 638 665 675 669 653 655 683 708 721 729 738 751 757
Without 2012 640 664 673 669 652 652 678 706 720 729 741 754 753
2013 640 662 673 672 655 653 674 702 718 727 738 749 753
2014 639 665 674 674 657 652 673 701 717 726 740 747 755
30 APPENDIX B
Table B.5. Percentage of Consumers Taking 1 of 17 Debt Styles, by Age Cohort
APPENDIX B 31
HELOC 2014 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.6 1.0 0.3
Student 2010 0.1 1.5 3.5 3.1 1.9 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
+ 2011 0.1 1.4 3.6 3.3 2.1 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Auto 2012 0.1 1.2 3.3 3.4 2.2 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
+ 2013 0.1 1.2 3.2 3.6 2.4 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Mortgage 2014 0.1 1.2 3.4 4.0 2.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0
32 APPENDIX B
Table B.6. Total Median Debt Balance, by Debt Style and Age Cohort
Student 2010 135,010 178,057 207,988 230,332 227,838 205,967 196,290 189,592 185,143 189,292 178,161 133,938 122,823
+ 2011 135,281 172,002 204,182 230,675 232,849 208,107 198,038 192,954 186,133 192,164 182,370 149,395 140,811
auto 2012 126,910 169,102 201,873 228,704 234,425 212,651 202,013 195,354 190,702 187,472 179,881 150,538 145,931
+ 2013 133,076 172,514 202,563 231,452 236,556 220,406 206,658 196,713 191,126 192,040 183,291 157,537 131,204
mortgage 2014 134,233 174,351 204,172 233,774 246,182 227,992 211,277 203,026 195,973 197,101 188,594 150,745 132,974
APPENDIX B 33
Source: Authors’ calculations.
34 APPENDIX B
Table B.7. Consumers’ Median Vantage Scores, by Debt Style and Age Cohort
APPENDIX B 35
HELOC 2014 687 714 723 727 730 734 741 751 758 761 763 768 766
Student 2010 673 714 719 704 683 684 714 724 734 734 738 744 742
+ 2011 678 719 725 717 691 689 714 728 734 736 735 743 737
auto 2012 676 719 725 720 695 691 713 729 737 735 748 747 752
+ 2013 678 718 729 724 702 693 710 730 738 742 746 743 745
mortgage 2014 675 719 732 729 706 695 711 729 738 741 747 756 761
36 APPENDIX B
Notes
1. Consumers’ ages are reported separately for each yearly 2010–2014 sampling period. Twenty-four percent of
consumers have no age information at all for the entire five sampling periods; 98.9 percent of those consumers
who do not have age information either have no debt (88.1 percent, see table B.1) or only have credit card
spending (10.8 percent, see table B.1). For consumers who do have age information, the vast majority (94
percent) have consistent age over the five consecutive annual sampling points. For the rest of consumers
without consistent age information (6 percent), we calculate the median age over the five sampling points for
each consumer, and assign the median age as the age of the consumer in 2012; for the other four sampling
periods, the consumer’s age is assigned to make it consistent over time.
2. Lenders rely extensively upon two scoring models in making credit decisions, Vantage score and FICO.
Vantage score is a credit score derived from consumer credit information. It is jointly owned by the big three
credit bureaus—Experian, Equifax, and TransUnion, who all contribute their data. Vantage 3.0, used in our
analysis, was introduced in March 2013 and is able to calculate a score for an additional 30 to 35 million
previously “unscoreable” consumers. Consumers receive a score within the range of 300–850. This is the same
scale used by FICO.
3. Consumers with zero balance on all open trades reported in the last six months of a sampling period are
considered as consumers without any debt for that sampling period. We use the same definition to define
whether a consumer has debt for a specific type of trade, such as credit card debt, an auto loan, a student loan,
a home equity line of credit, or a mortgage. For mortgage debt, the balance used is the combined balance on
both a first and a second mortgage.
4. Readers should be aware that major credit bureaus will only have data on consumers with either credit of the
types included by the credit bureau or collections activity, such as medical bills, utility bills, or government
debt. Thus, our numbers will likely understate the percentage of those who have no debt, as many consumers
with no debt have no credit history and no items in collection, and hence there is no record of the consumer at
any of the three major credit bureaus.
5. We use the term “credit card spending,” because our data on credit card debt do not distinguish between those
who pay off their credit cards each month and those who carry over a balance.
6. There is no consensus on the percentage of borrowers who pay their balances in full. An American Bankers
Association “Credit Card Monitor,” released in December 2014 and covering Q2 2014, found that 29.0
percent of borrowers pay in full each month, 29.8 percent are dormant accounts that showed no activity over
the quarter, and 41.2 percent are revolvers in which some percentage of the monthly balance is rolled over to
the next month at least once during the quarter (American Bankers Association, “Credit Card Market Monitor,
December 2014,”December 16, 2014,
http://www.aba.com/Press/Documents/12.16.14ABACreditCardMonitorFAQ.pdf).
In our analysis, a dormant account with a zero balance would be picked up as no credit card debt. If we
rescaled, assuming all dormant accounts are zero balance, it would suggest of those with credit card debt, 41
percent pay off their balances in full each month. A Gallup poll survey, done in April of 2014, found that 48
percent of borrowers said they always paid the full amount of their credit card balances each month, and
another 16 percent said they usually did. Another 20 percent said they usually left balances, 12 percent usually
paid the minimum, and 1 percent paid less than the minimum (Art Swift, “Americans Rely Less on Credit Cards
Than in Previous Years,”Gallup.com, April 25, 2014, http://www.gallup.com/poll/168668/americans-rely-less-
credit-cards-previous-years.aspx). A Bankrate.com survey in August 2014, found that 40 percent of borrowers
under 30 said they paid off their cards each month, versus 53 percent of those 30 and older (Jeanine
Skowronski, “More Millennials Say ‘No’ to Credit Cards,” Millennials and Money (blog), Bankrate.com,
September 8, 2014, http://www.bankrate.com/finance/credit-cards/more-millennials-say-no-to-credit-cards-
1.aspx.)
NOTES 37
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38 APPENDIX A
About the Authors
Wei Li is a senior research associate in the Housing Finance Policy Center at the Urban
Institute, where his research focuses on the social and political aspects of the housing
finance market and their implications for urban policy. His research has led to the
creation of the popular Credit Availability Index (HCAI) and the Real Denial Rate. He is
the winner of the 2015 Urban Institute President’s Award on Outstanding Research.
His work has been published widely in various academic journals and has been covered
in the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, and the New York Times, as well as in
other print and broadcast media. He is also a quantitative research methodologist with
a deep understanding of cost-benefit analysis, program evaluation, and causal
inference in social and political science.
Before joining Urban, Li was a principal researcher with the Center for Responsible
Lending, where he wrote numerous publications on the housing finance market and
created and managed the nonprofit organization’s comprehensive residential
mortgage database. Li received his PhD in environmental science, policy, and
management and an MA in statistics from the University of California at Berkeley.
Laurie Goodman is the director of the Housing Finance Policy Center at the Urban
Institute. The center is dedicated to providing policymakers data-driven analyses of
housing finance policy issues that they can depend on for relevance, accuracy, and
independence.
Before joining Urban in 2013, Goodman spent 30 years as an analyst and research
department manager at a number of Wall Street firms. From 2008 to 2013, she was a
senior managing director at Amherst Securities Group, LP, a boutique broker/dealer
specializing in securitized products, where her strategy effort became known for its
analysis of housing policy issues. From 1993 to 2008, Goodman was head of global
fixed income research and manager of US securitized products research at UBS and
predecessor firms, which were ranked first by Institutional Investor for 11 straight
years. Before that, she was a senior fixed income analyst, a mortgage portfolio
manager, and a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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the evidence-based policy recommendations offered by its researchers and experts. We believe that operating
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