Due Diligence and Valuation Report: Market Data
Due Diligence and Valuation Report: Market Data
Due Diligence and Valuation Report: Market Data
7. VALUATION .................................................................................................................................................. 25
7.1 Dividend Discount Model ..............................................................................................................................25
7.2 Net Asset Valuation (NAV) Method .................................................................................................................28
8. APPENDIX .................................................................................................................................................... 30
8.1 BCOM’s Financial Summary...........................................................................................................................30
9. ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS .......................................................................................................................... 31
10. NOTES AND REFERENCES............................................................................................................................ 32
Key Highlights:
(1) BCOM’s strength lies in its experienced management team led by Mr. Shaul Elovitch, Chairman of Eurocom, that
has prepared the company to withstand and adapt to changes occurring in Israel’s Telecommunication sector.
(2) Bezeq’s strong presence across the telecommunication spectrum (fixed line, broadband services, cellular services,
and International services) gives the Company a competitive advantage.
(3) Bezeq is one of two groups in Israel that has its own infrastructure across the Telecommunication field in Israel in
which it operates.
(4) Bezeq’s one-of-its-kind fixed line infrastructure comprises an NGN (Next Generation Network) – FTTC (Fiber to the
Curb) network that offers ultra-speed Internet to cater to growing bandwidth requirements of its customers.
(5) Bezeq through its NGN network has launched various ultra-speed Internet surfing packages ranging from 10 Mbps
to 100 Mbps for its customers to experience high bandwidth rate at a lower price as compared to its peers. This is
clearly reflected in its Broadband revenue that grew by a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 10.5% between
2008 and 2013.
(6) Despite intense competition in cellular services, Pelephone has lost only 2.2% of its market share during 2011-13
as compared to much higher rates experienced by its peers, Cellcom (2.6%) and Partner (2.9%).
(7) Bezeq International through its submarine cable network has improved customer experience through increased
capacity and Internet speeds, and also simultaneously enlarged its revenue stream through additional capacity and
services.
(8) Also, in multi-channel television, through the launch of DBS (under the brand name of ‘YES’), Israel’s sole satellite
provider, Bezeq has proved its innovation capabilities and understanding of customers’ needs.
(9) BCOM displayed its ability to improve its financial and debt structure by successfully closing a private offering to
qualified institutional buyers of $800MM, 7⅜% Senior Secured Notes due 2021 on February 19, 2014.
Key Risks: (1) BCOM is a leveraged holding company with only one asset and due to this it is a fully exposed to the
Israeli communications market; (2) A fall in the controlling interest below 30% will lead to non-compliance with the
‘Control Permit’ norms and result in a loss of authority in Bezeq; (3) Ministry of Communications has released a list of
services which the infrastructure owners will be obliged to offer as wholesale services to service providers which is
likely to increase competition in the coming years.vii
Industry Overviewviii: Telecommunications services industry in Israel is a highly developed one and consists of
several segments all of which are highly competitive. The Israeli telecommunications market benefits from favorable
dynamics, including high penetration rates across all telecommunications services (144% in fixed-line telephony,
85.7% in fixed-line broadband Internet infrastructure access, 65% in pay television and 124% in cellular telephony as
of December 31, 2013), high penetration of postpaid contracts in the cellular telephony market, rapid adoption rates
of new technologies and significant expenditures on telecommunications services by consumers and businesses. The
market is dominated by four major groups, namely the Bezeq group, the IDB group, the Partner group, and the HOT
group with each of these having interests in some or all of the primary communications sub sectors. Major factors
contributing to the growth of the industry include the various technological advancements made by the country in the
sector, the massive inflow of foreign investments in the sector, and the favorable regulatory environment of the
country, which has consistently promoted competition in the industry. Intense competition within all sub sectors has
mainly been responsible for the sector witnessing downward pricing trends and higher churn rates. This has, in effect,
given rise to newer trends in the industry with existing companies investing in better technologies to constantly
innovate; they focus more on effective marketing strategies to introduce new products and services, differentiating
them from their competitors in order to win valuable market share in a highly competitive business environment. With
a view to provide high quality services at affordable price to consumers, Ministry of Communication (MoC) is in
process of developing Wholesale market for Fixed Communication. This Wholesale Regulation will enforce
infrastructure owners to share their existing infrastructure with other license holders which are expected to increase
competition.
Eurocom Group holds a 74% stake in IGLD, which, in turn, holds a 66.7% stake in BCOM. Further, BCOM’s sole asset
is its 30.81% stake in Bezeq and IGLD's sole asset is its holding in BCOM.
Bezeq has stakes in the following companies across the telecommunication spectrum in Israel:
1991 Israeli government started privatization process for the telecommunication industry
Eurocom forms Internet Gold under the name of Euronet Golden-Lines Ltd to capitalize on the
1992
privatization process
The Internet emerged as new channel for service delivery, and to seize the opportunity, Internet Gold
1995
launched its Internet Service Provider (ISP) services
1999 Internet Gold’s IPO – Gets listed on NASDAQ Global markets and Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange
With Voice over Internet Protocol(VoIP) technologies maturing, Internet Gold introduced low cost ILD
services and also started converting low Average Revenue per User (ARPU) Internet access customers
2004 to high ARPU broadband service customers
Internet Gold acquired its key competitor in ILD & ISP services 012 Golden Lines to expand its
operation significantly
To efficiently handle this expanded operation, Internet Gold through restructuring created BCOM
(previously known as 012 Smile Communication) & transferred its ISP & ILD services and also merged
2006
012 Golden Lines into BCOM.
BCOM’s IPO on NASDAQ Global market– Raised US$80.1MM through sale of 6.675MM shares (27.56%
2007 of its outstanding shares) at US$12 per Share.
Shortly thereafter dual listed on Tel Aviv Stock Exchange
BCOM signed a share purchase agreement for acquisition of the controlling interest (30.98%) in Bezeq
2009
from Apax-Saban-Arkin for NIS6.5 B (NIS8 per share)
Seen as a trend across the globe, increased Total accress lines (000's) (LHS) ARPL - Voice & fixed fees (in NIS) (RHS)
Exhibit 4: Broadband: Internet Lines vs. Average Exhibit 5: Broadband: ARPU vs. Broadband Speed per
Revenue Per User Subscriber
1300 82 83 85 90 90 85 20
82 83
1275 76
80 80 76 18
1250 69
70 69 18.1
1225 1263 16
70
1200 60 14
60
1175 1169 50 12
1150 50
40 10
1125
1111 40
1100 30 9.6 8
1075 30
1066 20 6
1050 6.7
1035 10 20
1025 4
4.3
1000 0 10 2
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 2.7
Broadband Internet lines (000's) (LHS) Broadband Interent ARPU (in NIS) 0 0
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
Broadband Interent ARPU (in NIS)
Average broadband speed per subscibers (end of period,Mbps) (RHS)
- Transmission and Data Revenue: Bezeq provides a wide variety of data and high-speed transmission services
to business customers and other telecommunication operators. Bezeq’s data service offerings includes point to
point, point to multi point, and network topology for business to business and multi-branch business customers,
as well as connectivity, Internet access and remote access services. Bezeq provides these services on multiple
platforms, from its legacy infrastructures to its newer and more advanced infrastructures, such as IPVPN and
metro Ethernet.
- Other Services
Miscellaneous Services to Communications Operators: The Company provides services for other
communications operators, such as cellular operators, international call operators, HOT, NEP operators, ISPs,
Domestic Carriers, and Palestinian communications providers. The services provided by the Company include
infrastructure services, infrastructure upgrades, connection to the Company's network, transmission services,
billing services, leasing of space, services in leased premises.
Broadcasting Services: The Company operates and maintains radio transmitters, which are operated, inter
alia, by Israel Broadcasting Corporation, Israel Army Radio (GaleiZahal), and the broadcasts of a number of
regional radio stations. It also operates the Digital Terrestrial Television (DTT) transmitters for the Second
Authority. The Company is responsible only for operating and maintaining the transmitters, and not for the
content of the broadcasts.
Contract Works: The Company carries out set-up and operation works of networks or sub-networks for various
customers (e.g. the Ministry of Defense, HOT, radio and television broadcasting companies, cellular operators,
international call operators, local authorities, municipalities, and government bodies). The Company has
agreements with HOT Telecom for providing installation, maintenance, and hosting of networks using the
Company's infrastructures from the exit point of the operation of the license-holders to the delivery point at the
entrance to the homes of the subscribers. (The connection and maintenance from these points to the
subscribers' homes is not the responsibility of the Company).
IP Centrex: IP Centrex service is a private and virtual exchange service in a public network
Data Center: A service enabling a backup and survivability solution for the customer
144 Internet Site (B144): A search engine for finding the telephone numbers of businesses and private
persons, including a classified search
Free Wi-Fi services: This service allows the Company’s customers to share a part of their wireless bandwidth,
and in turn, they are allowed to browse outside their homes.
Exhibit 6: Pelephone: Subscriber vs. MOU Exhibit 7: Pelephone: ARPU and Churn Rate
2900 475 110 35%
462
2857 106
450 28.6% 30%
2850 2847 105
419
425 25%
2800 2800 22.4%
100
2766 400 22.9% 20%
2750 375
95 97
375
15%
2700 349
350 90
333 10%
89
2650 325
85 5%
2642
2600 300
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 80 0%
Subscribers (000's) (LHS) MOU (per sub per month) (RHS) FY11 FY12 FY13
ARPU (NIS) (LHS) Churn rate (%) (RHS)
Exhibit 6 displays that despite a decline in the number of subscribers in the last three years, Pelephone has managed
to generate more volume per subscribers as evidenced by consistent growth in Minutes of Usage (MOU).
Exhibit 6 & 7 displays Pelephone’s strategy to grow its revenue through volume growth (MOU) and at the same time
counter the high subscribers churn rate through reduced pricing.
Products and Services Offered
Products: Pelephone offers its customers various types of cellular telephone, on-board telephones, and hands-free
devices, as well as support for its range of services. It also supplies its customers with modems, laptop computers,
and tablets for surfing the Internet through the Pelephone network.
Services: Pelephone provides its subscribers with comprehensive services of voice transmission, transmission of text
messages, data communications and advanced multimedia services. These services are offered using both the
technologies, UMTS/HSPA & CDMA. However, since 2009, recognizing advantages like download speed of up to 42
Mbps and upload speeds of up to 5.7 Mbps of UMTS/HSPA technology, Pelephone has solely focused on the
UMTS/HSPA technology as the primary network technology to efficiently cater to its customers’ needs.
time the content is originally aired in the United States 570 226
571
or worldwide. The broadcasts includes a basic package 565
224
which each subscriber is required to purchase as well as 560
package or as single and PPV channels. Subscribers (000's) (LHS) ARPU (NIS) (RHS)
Internet Gold
(IGLD)
33%
Public
67%
Contacts: B Communications Ltd, 2 Dov Friedman Street, Ramat Gan 52503, Israel
Phone:+972-3-9240000
- Announced that Midroog Ltd. Has Raised the Local Rating for B Communications’ Series B Debentures
to A1 With a Stable Outlook: On March 20, 2014, BCOM announced that Midroog Ltd., an Israeli rating
company affiliated with Moody’s (“Midroog”), raised the local rating of the Series B Debentures of BCOM from an
A2 to A1 rating with a stable outlook. In its rating report, Midroog noted that the A1 stable rating is supported
both by the Company’s successful private offering of $800MM of Senior Secured Notes due 2021 that improved its
financial flexibility and removed covenants following the payment of senior debts, and by the strong financial
profile of Bezeq. Bezeq is expected to continue to produce steady cash flows to support the Company’s debt
obligations for the short and medium terms. Midroog also noted the positive decrease in the Company’s leverage
ratio during the past years and its high liquidity balance
- Announced Closing of $800MM Aggregate Principal Amount of Senior Secured Notes Due 2021: On
February 19, 2014, BCOM announced that it had successfully closed a private offering to qualified institutional
buyers in the United States worth $800MM, 7⅜% Senior Secured Notes due 2021. BCOM will use the net proceeds
from the offering to repay all amounts outstanding under the loans it incurred to acquire its controlling interest in
Bezeq and to deposit funds into a debt service account.
- Cooperation Agreement between Pelephone and Cellcom: On September 22, 2014, Bezeq announced that
its subsidiary, Pelephone Communications Ltd has entered into a cooperation agreement with Cellcom Israel Ltd.
for the maintenance of passive components at cellular sites, including the consolidation of passive components
and the reduction in costs by means of a common contractor. The contractor will be selected through an RFP
process and will execute separate agreements with Pelephone and Cellcom for a period of at least five years.
- Regulation of Wholesale Services - Secondary Hearing: On August 19, 2014, Bezeq announced receiving of
secondary hearing document for the provision of wholesale services and the setting of the rate for wholesale
services on Bezeq’s network. In accordance with this secondary hearing, the Minister of Communications is
considering regulating the maximum rates for the provision of services on the Company’s network.
At this stage, on the face of things, the Company estimates that the implementation of the above regulation will
have a negative impact on the Company’s financial results. At the same time, alongside this impact the Company
estimates that, considering the possibility of the removal of the structural separation and the cancellation of the
supervision of the company’s tariffs – cancellations that are anticipated following the regulation of the wholesale
market – there will likely also be positive impacts on the Company.
- Private Placement of Debentures (Series 6 and 7) for Qualified and Institutional Investors: On August
13, 2014, Bezeq announced a private placement of Series 6 Debentures and Series 7 Debentures of the Company
to qualified and Institutional investors. Through this placement, the Company expects to receive approximately
NIS 1.029 billion (gross) by issuance of the Debentures (Series 6) and approximately NIS 119 million (gross) by
issuance of the Debentures (Series 7).
- Approval of Temporary Activation - Fourth Generation Services: On August 4, 2014, Bezeq announced that
its subsidiary Pelephone has received an approval from Ministry of Communication to provide fourth generation
services with LTE technology, through temporary allocation of an 1800 frequency band with width of 5MHz.
- Hearing regarding the duty of cover and quality required from cellular licensees: On July 30, 2014, Bezeq
announced that its subsidiary, Pelephone has to address a hearing discussion regarding amendment to the
operators’ licenses by way of toughening the cover and quality requirements as regards to the public telecom
systems operated by them using 2G and 3G technology deployed in the territories of the State of Israel and Judea
and Samaria.
- Update of 2014 Bezeq Group Outlook: On May 20, 2014, Bezeq updated its forecast in connection with the
group’s results as follows: Net profit attributable to Bezeq shareholders is expected to be approximately NIS 2B,
EBITDA to be approximately NIS 4.5B and Free cash flow of approximately NIS 2.5B.
- Completion of transaction for sale of Yad2: On May 20, 2014, Bezeq announced that transaction for the sale
of Yad2 was consummated, in accordance with the terms set forth in the Sale Agreement. Upon consummation of
the transaction, the entire consideration for the transaction in the amount of approximately NIS 805MM was
Telecommunications involves the integration of voice, data, pictures, videos, and different communication
technologies with electronic devices to facilitate communication between people and deliver entertainment,
information, and other services. The process involves the use of computer, and mobile technology to transmit,
receive, and switch voice, data, and video communications over different transmission medium (including copper,
fiber optic cable and cellular communication). Telecommunication networks were originally designed for voice services
but with evolution of Internet Protocol (IP), the data and video services are also becoming an important part of
telecommunication. Quality and efficiency of telecommunication depend upon the medium (carrier) by which the
information is transferred. These transmission carriers or mediums are broadly classified as wire line and wireless
modes of communication transmission.
Transm itter
Receiver (User of
(Radio station, Com m unication
voice and
Mobile or Cell Medium (Wire line
broadband
tower, Telephone or Wireless)
internet services)
exchange etc)
NGN is the most advanced communication network, which uses a packet-based network to transports all information
and services (voice, data, and media such as video and pictures) by converting them into packets (digital) form. This
enables the carrier to carry all types of services including voice, data, video, and signaling through single
communication channel. NGNs are commonly built around the IP, and therefore the term ‘All IP’ is also sometimes
used to describe NGN. This technology provides several advantages over other network technologies. For service
provider, the NGN offers lower capital expenditure, low operating expenses, greater power saving, less space
requirement and low maintenance cost. For, the user it provides benefits of low cost and high speed of services. NGN
technology provides information transfer speed in the range of 20 to 100 megabits per second. The future of NGN
technology is the enhancement to fiber NGN, which uses fiber – Optic as transmission medium. Fiber NGN have
transmission rate in the range of 100 megabits per second to 1 gigabits per second.
1
In communication, the term ‘bandwidth’ refers to how much data can be transmitted in a certain amount of time. In essence, higher bandwidth
requires less time to transport bundle of information.
Mobile Control
Equipment
Froward Link
Reverse Link
Froward Link
Reverse Link
Mobile Operator
Public
Switched
Telephone
Network
(PSTN)
Recent Development
Creation of Wholesale Market: In order to provide high quality of services at a cheaper price, MoC is in process to
develop a Wholesale market for Fixed Communication Services which is currently dominated by two players, Bezeq
and Hot. The MoC is enforcing a new regulation by which the infrastructure owners of nationwide fixed access
networks will have to offer few of their services as wholesale services to other license holders. Some of these services
include Bitstream Access, Leasing of access elements (unbundling), leasing of dark fibers, duct access and
transmission services (‘the wholesale services’), and on the basis of non-discriminatory terms. The new entrants will
be allowed to use the infrastructure of the existing players to provide their services. This will encourage new players
to enter as they would incur lower capital expenditure leading to increase in competition.
However, the Wholesale Regulation is still under review and MoC is expected to make the final decision in around
second half of 2014. Under the Wholesale Market Regulation, MoC will prescribe maximum prices under the
5,000
Exhibit21: Dividend
Discount Model
(High Bracket)
All figures are in NISMM unless otherwise mentioned
Time Period 0.25 1.25 2.25 3.25 4.25 5.25 6.25
2017
2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Ratios E
EPS (7.2) 1.5 4.6 (3.3) 6.8 7.6 8.3 9.4 9.7 10.3
DPS (3.3) 6.8 7.6 8.3 9.4 9.7 10.3
Dividend Payout Ratio 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Ratios 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
EPS (7.2) 1.5 4.6 (3.3) 5.6 5.6 6.1 8.3 8.1 9.0
DPS (3.3) 5.6 5.6 6.1 8.3 8.1 9.0
Dividend Payout Ratio 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Terminal Value: Terminal Value is estimated to depend on a terminal growth rate of 1.0%
Prudential nature of valuation: It should be noted that this Arrowhead Fair Value Bracket estimate is a relatively
prudential estimate, as it discounts the eventuality of any of new products launched or sold off in the market or any
significant change in the Company strategy.
Key variables: The upper and lower bounds in the estimation correspond to the extreme positions taken by the
following key variables:
With Arrowhead Commercial and Technical Due Diligence, Arrowhead extensively researches the fundamentals, assets
and liabilities of a Company, and builds solid estimates for revenue and expenditure over a coherently determined
forecast period.
Elements of past performance, such as price/earnings ratios, indicated as applicable, are present mainly for reference
purposes. Still, elements of real-world past performance enter the valuation through their impact on the commercial
and technical due diligence.
Elements of comparison, such as multiple analyses, may be to some limited extent integrated in the valuation on a
project-by-project or asset-by-asset basis. In the case of this BCOM report, there are no multiple analyses integrated
in the valuation.
In principle, an investor who is comfortable with the high-brackets of our key variable analysis will align with the high-
bracket in the Arrowhead Fair Value Bracket, and likewise in terms of low estimates. The investor will also take into
account the Company intangibles – as presented in the initial pages of this document in the analysis on strengths and
weaknesses and on other essential Company information. These intangibles serve as supplementary decision factors
for adding or subtracting a premium in the investor’s own analysis.
The bracket should be understood as a tool provided by Arrowhead BID for the reader of this report and the reader
should not solely rely on this information to make his decision on any particular security. The reader must also
understand that on one hand, global capital markets contain inefficiencies, especially in terms of information, and that
on the other hand, corporations and their commercial and technical positions evolve rapidly: this present edition of
the Arrowhead valuation is for a short to medium-term alignment analysis (one to twelve months). The reader should
refer to important disclosures on page 31 of this report.
Revenue 31.4% (9.6%) (7.0%) (4.5%) (1.7%) (1.8%) 0.4% 2.7% 2.9% 2.7%
Operating Profit 22.0% 29.9% 4.4% (9.7%) (1.2%) (1.6%) (0.4%) 1.4% 3.6% 3.3%
Net Income (60.4%) 519.5% 18.4% 34.4% (38.4%) (1.5%) 1.1% 4.6% 7.8% 7.0%
EPS NM NM 197.8% (173.0%) NM (0.6%) 8.4% 37.6% (2.8%) 11.6%
Margins (%)
Gross Margins (%) 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Operating Profit Margin 13.2% 19.0% 21.3% 20.1% 20.2% 20.3% 20.1% 19.9% 20.0% 20.1%
Net Profit Margin 1.1% 7.7% 9.8% 13.8% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.9% 9.3% 9.7%
Ratios
ROA 0.5% 3.5% 4.5% 5.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.6% 3.9% 4.3%
ROE 2.6% 18.3% 24.0% 27.8% 16.2% 15.5% 15.2% 15.7% 16.6% 17.4%
Debt/Equity 2.8x 3.1x 3.4x 3.0x 2.8x 2.7x 2.5x 2.4x 2.3x 2.2x
Interest Coverage 1.5x 2.1x 2.4x 2.7x 2.3x 2.3x 2.3x 2.4x 2.6x 2.8x
Price /Earnings Ratio (PE) NM 40.1x 13.5x NM 11.0x 11.0x 10.2x 7.4x 7.6x 6.8x