POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 27TH JULY 2018, 6 AM EST

UltraPoll - Ontario Edition

Voter Intentions & Rating the Ford
Government’s First Moves

26th July 2018

METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results With 20 years of political experience in all
of a survey conducted between July 15th three levels of government, President and CEO
and June 17th, 2018 among a sample of Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
1861 adults, 18 years of age or older, living international public affairs.
in Ontario. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
Respondents were interviewed on landlines Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
and cellular phones. snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
The sampling frame was derived from both was the only polling firm to correctly predict a
a national telephone directory compiled Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal
by Mainstreet Research from various election. Mainstreet also accurately predicted
commercially available sources and random the Miami & New York City Mayoral elections.
digit dialing. The part of the survey that and the Alabama special election in 2017.
dialed from the directory was conducted as a Mainstreet Research is a member of the World
stratified dial of the following regions; Toronto Association for Public Opinion Research and
(also known as the 416 region), the Greater meets international and Canadian publication
Toronto Area (also known as the 905 region), standards.
South Central Ontario, Southwestern Ontario,
Eastern Ontario, and Northern Ontario. In the CONTACT INFORMATION
case of random digit dials, respondents were In Ottawa:
asked the additional question of what region Quito Maggi, President
of the province they resided in. [email protected]

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet In Toronto:

Research and was not sponsored by a third Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
party. [email protected]

The margin of error for this survey is +/- 2.27% Find us online at:
and is accurate 19 times out of 20. www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
(full methodology appears at the end of this facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
report)
ONTARIANS LIKE FORD BUT DON’T AGREE WITH SCRAPPING BOTH SEX-ED CURRICULUM
AND CAP AND TRADE PROGRAM

27 July 2018 (Ottawa, ON) – The newly elected Progressive Conservative government led by Premier
Doug Ford enjoys strong support despite the fact that Ontarians are ambivalent about the government’s
stance on carbon emissions and the sex-ed curriculum.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial
polls. The poll surveyed 1861 Ontarians between July 15th to 17th. The poll has a margin of error of +/-
2.27 % and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The level of support that the PCs is slightly higher than what they got in the election in June and then
have put distance between themselves and the opposition NDP”, said Quito Maggi, President and
CEO of Mainstreet Research. “That said, the Ford government is on the wrong side of public opinion
– albeit narrowly - when it comes to scrapping both Ontario’s cap and trade program and the sex-ed
curriculum.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs enjoy 41.7% of public support, while the NDP led by
Andrea Horwath are at 27.8%. The Liberals with interim leader John Fraser come in with 21.3% support,
while the Green Party led by Mike Schreiner have 6.7%.

“The NDP lead in Northern Ontario and are in a virtual tie with the PCs in South Central Ontario,”
continued Maggi. “The PCs conversely lead significantly in the other four regions of Ontario. While they
only have a three point lead over the NDP in Toronto, the Ford government enjoys commanding leads
in the Greater Toronto Area, Southwestern Ontario, and Eastern Ontario.”

When asked about the Ford government’s decision to scrap the cap and trade program, 40.7% said
they at least somewhat agreed while 42.5% said they disagreed, with 16.8% saying that they were not
sure.

In terms of removing the sex education curriculum, 42.2% said they agreed with the move while 47.4%
disagreed. 10.4% said that they were not sure.

Ontarians overwhelmingly support Ford’s decision to fire the CEO of Hydro One. 61.7% said they agreed
with the move – with 46.2% saying that they strongly approve of the decision.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Dr. Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - [email protected]
If a provincial election were held today, which
All Voters
party would you vote for?

7.7%
2.4%

5.8%

39.1%

19.0% All Voters

Decided and26.1%
Leaning Voters

2.5%
Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens
6.7%
Another Party Undecided

21.3%
41.7%

Decided and Leaning Voters

27.8%

Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens

Another Party
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(regional breakouts)

36.4%
33.0%
Toronto

23.1%
5.6%
2.0%

48.3%
19.9%
GTA

24.2%
5.1%
2.5%

39.4%
25.7%
Eastern

23.3%
8.9%
2.7%

36.4%
South Central

36.2%
19.9%
6.2%
1.4%

45.3%
Southwestern

27.4%
14.9%
9.2%
3.3%

33.8%
37.6%
North

20.4%
5.7%
2.4%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens

Another Party
 The Ford government has announced that it will halt the Ontario cap-
and-trade carbon tax program, withdrawing from an arrangement
with Quebec and California that established a joint carbon market
to buy and sell pollution credits. Do you agree or disagree with this
Halting Cap and Trade decision?
p and Trade
Trade
16.8%
16.8%
16.8%
26.7%
26.7%

Halting Cap and Tr

Halting Cap and Trade
Halting Cap and Trade
29.2%
29.2%
9.2% 14%
14%

13.3%
13.3%

Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disag

gly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree
Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree Not Sure
 The Ford government has fired the board
and the CEO of Hydro One. Do you agree or
Halting Cap with
disagree andthis
Trade
decision?
d and CEO of Hydro One
Trade
16.8%
14.8%
16.8%

26.7%

11.9%

Halting Cap
46.2% and Tr
Firing Board and CEO of Hydro One
Halting Cap and Trade
29.2%

11.5%
9.2%
14%

15.5%
13.3%

Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disag

gly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree
Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree Not Sure
 The Ford government has also announced that come
September, children will be taught the 1998 version of
the sexual education curriculum, reverting away from
Halting Cap and Trade
the curriculum that was put in place in 2015. Do you
d and CEO of Hydro One
agree or disagree with this decision?
Trade
16.8%
14.8%
16.8%

26.7%

11.9%

Halting Cap
46.2% and Tr
Firing Board and CEO of Hydro One
Halting Cap and Trade
29.2%

11.5%
9.2%
14%

15.5%
13.3%

Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disa

gly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree
Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree Not Sure
Breakouts
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Progressive Conservatives
39.1% 44.9% 33.5% 31.5% 40.5% 40.6% 46.2% 33.5% 45.2% 35.8% 34.4% 44.1% 30.3%
led by Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
26.1% 22% 29.9% 35.2% 20.9% 23.7% 22.8% 30.5% 19.1% 23.6% 33.7% 26.1% 34.6%
Horwath
Liberals led by John Fraser 19% 18.2% 19.7% 15.3% 23.4% 19.8% 17.4% 20.5% 22.1% 21.4% 17.2% 13.1% 16.6%
Greens led by Mike
5.8% 5.1% 6.5% 7.1% 5.4% 6.3% 3.8% 4.8% 4.9% 7.7% 4.7% 7.8% 4.4%
Schreiner
Another Party 2.4% 2.8% 1.9% 4.2% 1.7% 1. 4% 2% 1.9% 2.4% 2.6% 1.3% 3.2% 2.3%
Undecided 7.7% 6.9% 8.5% 6.8% 8.1% 8.2% 7.8% 8.9% 6.4% 8.9% 8.7% 5.8% 11.7%
Unweighted Frequency 1861 1092 769 348 497 547 469 352 538 256 238 357 120
Weighted Frequency 1861 915 946 523 469 511 359 433 512 249 166 388 114

(leaning and undecided voters)

Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Progressive Conservatives
40% 45.8% 34.3% 32.4% 41.1% 41.6% 47.2% 34.6% 46.3% 37.6% 34.6% 44.1% 31.2%
led by Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
26.6% 22.7% 30.3% 35.5% 21.4% 24.5% 23.2% 31.4% 19.1% 24.5% 34.4% 26.6% 34.6%
Horwath
Liberals led by John Fraser 20.3% 19.4% 21.2% 16.1% 25.1% 21.1% 18.9% 21.9% 23.2% 22.2% 18.9% 14.4% 18.8%
Greens led by Mike
6.4% 5.5% 7.3% 7.8% 5.8% 6.9% 4.6% 5.4% 4.9% 8.4% 5.9% 8.9% 5.3%
Schreiner
Another Party 2.4% 2.8% 1.9% 4.2% 1.7% 1.4% 2% 1.9% 2.4% 2.6% 1.3% 3.2% 2.3%
Undecided 4.4% 3.7% 5.1% 4% 5% 4.5% 4.1% 4.8% 4.1% 4.7% 4.9% 2.9% 7.9%
Unweighted Frequency 1861 1092 769 348 497 547 469 352 538 256 238 357 120
Weighted Frequency 1861 915 946 523 469 511 359 433 512 249 166 388 114

(decided and leaning voters)

Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Progressive Conservatives
41.7% 47.6% 36.1% 33.7% 43.2% 43.5% 49.1% 36.4% 48.3% 39.4% 36.4% 45.3% 33.8%
led by Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
27.8% 23.6% 31.9% 37.1% 22.6% 25.7% 24.2% 33% 19.9% 25.7% 36.2% 27.4% 37.6%
Horwath
Liberals led by John Fraser 21.3% 20.2% 22.3% 16.7% 26.4% 22.2% 19.8% 23.1% 24.2% 23.3% 19.9% 14.9% 20.4%
Greens led by Mike
6.7% 5.7% 7.6% 8.1% 6.1% 7.2% 4.8% 5.6% 5.1% 8.9% 6.2% 9.2% 5.7%
Schreiner
Another Party 2.5% 2.9% 2% 4.4% 1.8% 1. 4% 2% 2% 2.5% 2.7% 1.4% 3.3% 2.4%
Unweighted Frequency 1781 1052 729 333 474 524 450 336 517 245 226 346 111
Weighted Frequency 1781 875 906 500 448 489 343 414 490 238 159 372 109
The Ford government has announced that it will halt the Ontario cap-and-trade carbon
tax program, withdrawing from an arrangement with Quebec and California that
established a joint carbon market to buy and sell pollution credits. Do you agree or
disagree with this decision?
18- 35- 50- Greater Eastern South Central Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto
34 49 64 Toronto Area Ontario Ontario Ontario Ontario
Strongly Agree 26.7% 36.4% 17.3% 19.2% 30.6% 30% 27.8% 21.8% 29% 26.4% 24.4% 32.3% 19.9%
Somewhat Agree 14% 14.9% 13.1% 12.2% 15.2% 13.4% 15.8% 13.5% 17.3% 10.5% 11.2% 13.4% 14.9%
Somewhat
13.3% 10.4% 16.2% 16.1% 11.5% 12.6% 12.6% 13.1% 12.4% 9.1% 22.8% 12.5% 16.2%
Disagree
Strongly
29.2% 27.7% 30.6% 32.4% 28% 29.3% 25.8% 35.7% 27.2% 34.1% 23.4% 26.6% 19.8%
Disagree
Not Sure 16.8% 10.6% 22.9% 20% 14.7% 14.8% 18% 16% 14% 19.9% 18.2% 15.3% 29.2%
Unweighted
1861 1092 769 348 497 547 469 352 538 256 238 357 120
Frequency
Weighted
1861 915 946 523 469 511 359 433 512 249 166 388 114
Frequency

The Ford government has fired the board and the CEO of Hydro One. Do you agree or
disagree with this decision?
18- 35- 50- Greater Eastern South Central Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto
34 49 64 Toronto Area Ontario Ontario Ontario Ontario
Strongly Agree 46.2% 52.9% 39.8% 35.7% 48.8% 50.9% 51.6% 38% 52.7% 41.8% 45.8% 49.7% 47.1%
Somewhat Agree 15.5% 14.7% 16.3% 17.8% 14.9% 14.8% 14.2% 15.4% 15.3% 15.7% 17.8% 14.5% 17.1%
Somewhat
11.5% 10.2% 12.7% 11.6% 11.7% 13.1% 8.7% 15.4% 9.9% 13.5% 10.9% 8.8% 9.2%
Disagree
Strongly
11.9% 11.2% 12.6% 13% 10.7% 11.6% 12.3% 15.5% 10.4% 11.1% 10% 12.4% 8.2%
Disagree
Not Sure 14.8% 11% 18.5% 21.9% 13.9% 9.6% 13.3% 15.8% 11.7% 17.9% 15.5% 14.7% 18.4%
Unweighted
1861 1092 769 348 497 547 469 352 538 256 238 357 120
Frequency
Weighted
1861 915 946 523 469 511 359 433 512 249 166 388 114
Frequency

The Ford government has also announced that come September, children will be
taught the 1998 version of the sexual education curriculum, reverting away from the
curriculum that was put in place in 2015. Do you agree or disagree with this decision?
18- 35- 50- Greater Eastern South Central Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto
34 49 64 Toronto Area Ontario Ontario Ontario Ontario
Strongly Agree 30.1% 35.7% 24.6% 23.5% 33.1% 35% 28.7% 26.1% 35.2% 25.5% 26.6% 33.6% 25.1%
Somewhat Agree 12.1% 13.4% 10.9% 11.1% 13.1% 11.1% 13.9% 12.1% 12.7% 11% 12.5% 11.7% 13.3%
Somewhat
9.4% 8.6% 10.2% 7.3% 8.5% 11.4% 10.8% 8.5% 10.5% 7.9% 10.9% 8% 13.9%
Disagree
Strongly
38% 33% 42.8% 48.6% 37% 32.1% 32.1% 44.1% 32.9% 39.9% 38.1% 38.1% 32.9%
Disagree
Not Sure 10.4% 9.3% 11.5% 9.5% 8.3% 10.5% 14.4% 9.3% 8.8% 15.6% 11.9% 8.6% 14.8%
Unweighted
1861 1092 769 348 497 547 469 352 538 256 238 357 120
Frequency
Weighted
1861 915 946 523 469 511 359 433 512 249 166 388 114
Frequency
Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held today, The Ford government has fired the board
which party would you vote for? and the CEO of Hydro One. Do you agree
(first four responses randomized) or disagree with this decision?
The Progressive Conservative Party of Strongly Agree
Ontario led by Doug Ford Somewhat Agree
The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by Somewhat Disagree
Andrea Horwath Strongly Disagree
The Ontario Liberal Party led by John Fraser Not Sure
The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike
Schreiner The Ford government has also announced
Another party that come September, children will be
Undecided taught the 1998 version of the sexual
education curriculum, reverting away from
Which party are you leaning towards? the curriculum that was put in place in
(only asked to respondents who said they 2015. Do you agree or disagree with this
were undecided in the previous question - decision?
first four responses randomized) Strongly Agree
The Progressive Conservative Party of Somewhat Agree
Ontario led by Doug Ford Somewhat Disagree
The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by Strongly Disagree
Andrea Horwath Not Sure
The Ontario Liberal Party led by John Fraser
The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike What is your gender?
Schreiner Male
Another party Female
Undecided
What is your age group?
The Ford government has announced Under 18 years of age
that it will halt the Ontario cap-and-trade 18 to 34 years of age
carbon tax program, withdrawing from an 35 to 49 years of age
arrangement with Quebec and California 50 to 64 years of age
that established a joint carbon market 65 years of age or older
to buy and sell pollution credits. Do you
agree or disagree with this decision?
Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree
Not Sure
Ridings and Regions
The following shows the provincial electoral districts that pertain to each region in our
breakouts.
Toronto (416) Mississauga East--Cooksville
Beaches--East York Mississauga--Erin Mills
Davenport Mississauga--Lakeshore
Don Valley East Mississauga--Malton
Don Valley North Mississauga--Streetsville
Don Valley West Newmarket--Aurora
Eglinton--Lawrence Oakville
Etobicoke Centre Oakville North--Burlington
Etobicoke North Oshawa
Etobicoke--Lakeshore Pickering--Uxbridge
Humber River--Black Creek Richmond Hill
Parkdale--High Park Simcoe North
Scarborough Centre Thornhill
Scarborough North Vaughan--Woodbridge
Scarborough Southwest Whitby
Scarborough--Agincourt York--Simcoe
Scarborough--Guildwood
Scarborough--Rouge Park Eastern Ontario
Spadina--Fort York Bay of Quinte
Toronto Centre Carleton
Toronto--Danforth Glengarry--Prescott--Russell
Toronto--St. Paul’s Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock
University--Rosedale Hastings--Lennox and Addington
Willowdale Kanata--Carleton
York Centre Kingston and the Islands
York South--Weston Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and
Greater Toronto Area Rideau Lakes
Ajax Nepean
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill Northumberland--Peterborough South
Barrie--Innisfil Orléans
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte Ottawa Centre
Brampton Centre Ottawa South
Brampton East Ottawa West--Nepean
Brampton North Ottawa--Vanier
Brampton South Peterborough--Kawartha
Brampton West Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke
Burlington Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry
Dufferin--Caledon
Durham South Central Ontario
King--Vaughan Brantford--Brant
Markham--Stouffville Flamborough--Glanbrook
Markham--Thornhill Haldimand--Norfolk
Markham--Unionville Hamilton Centre
Milton Hamilton East--Stoney Creek
Mississauga Centre Hamilton Mountain
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas Sarnia--Lambton
Niagara Centre Simcoe--Grey
Niagara Falls Waterloo
Niagara West Wellington--Halton Hills
St. Catharines Windsor West
Windsor--Tecumseh
Southwestern Ontario
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound Northern Ontario
Cambridge Algoma--Manitoulin
Chatham-Kent--Leamington Kenora--Rainy River
Elgin--Middlesex--London Kiiwetinoong
Essex Mushkegowuk--James Bay
Guelph Nickel Belt
Huron--Bruce Nipissing
Kitchener Centre Parry Sound--Muskoka
Kitchener South--Hespeler Sault Ste. Marie
Kitchener--Conestoga Sudbury
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex Thunder Bay--Atikokan
London North Centre Thunder Bay--Superior North
London West Timiskaming--Cochrane
London--Fanshawe Timmins
Oxford
Perth--Wellington
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between July 15th,
2018 and July 17th, 2018 among a sample of 1861 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in
Ontario. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were
interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the
voting population of Ontario.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was not sponsored by a third party.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.
The survey that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the following
regions: Toronto (also known as the 416 region), the Greater Toronto Area (also known as
the 905 region), South Central Ontario, Southwestern Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and Northern
Ontario. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question
of what region of the province they resided in. In both cases, respondents were dialed at
random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.27% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 2.97%, Females: +/- 3.53%,
18-34 age group: +/- 5.25%, 35-49 age group: +/- 4.4%, 50-64 age group: +/- 4.19%, 65+
age group: +/- 4.52%, Toronto: +/- 5.22%, Greater Toronto Area: +/- 4.22%, South Central
Ontario: +/- 6.35%, Southwestern Ontario: +/- 3.64%, Eastern Ontario: +/- 5.19%, Northern
Ontario: +/- 8.95%

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls.