PROBABILITY

1. Counting Principle:

Example 1: There are 4 roads from Carleton to Washington and 6 roads from Washington to Hareton.
How many Carleton-Washington-Hareton routes are possible?
Each of the 4 roads from Carleton to Washington has 6 different choices. So, the total
number of routes is 4 × 6 = 24

The Fundamental Counting Principle:

Example 2: A baseball team has 6 pitchers and 3 catchers. How many different pitcher-catcher
combinations are there?
For each of the 6 pitchers there are 3 catchers, so there are 18 combinations.

Example 3: James has 4 pairs of trousers, 5 shirts, and 2 pairs of boots. How many different outfits can
he wear?
Here we have three events (outfits) to consider; therefore, James has 4 × 5 × 2 = 40 different
outfits.

Example 4: How many three-digit numbers are even? (Hint: How many different digits may be used in
the hundreds place? tens place? ones place?)
In the hundreds place, we can have 9 different digits (1, 2, ..., 9); in the tens place, we have 10
different digits (0, 1, 2, ..., 9), and in the ones place, we have 5 different digits (0, 2, 4, 6, 8).
So, there are 9 × 10 × 5 = 450 three-digit even numbers

Example 5: In how many ways can 10 multiple-choice questions be answered if each question has 4
choices and each question is answered? if 2 questions are left unanswered?
If all questions were answered, there are 10 × 4 = 40 ways.
If 2 questions were unanswered, there are 8 × 4 = 32 ways.

Example 6: A red die and a green die are tossed. How many different outcomes are possible?
There are 6 different outcomes for each die, so there are 6 × 6 = 36 different outcomes.

2. Permutation:

Example 1: How many permutations of 4 people selected from a group of 35 are there?
The first person can be selected in 35 ways. The next can be selected in 34 ways; the third
can be selected in 33 ways, and the fourth can be selected in 32 ways. By the Fundamental
Counting Principle, the total number of permutations is:
35 × 34 × 33 × 32 = 1,256,640

Permutation:
1. A permutation is an arrangement of elements from a single set.
2. Repetitions are not allowed.
3 The order in which the elements are arranged is significant.
 P(n, r) Notation:
For all positive integers n and r, where r ≤ n, the number of permutations of n things taken r at a time is:
n!
P(n,r) =
(n - r)!

Solve Example 1 using the formula above:

Example 2: In how many ways can a president, vice-president, secretary, and treasurer be selected from a
club with 30 members?
If we assume that no person can hold two offices, this problem involves the number of
permutations of 30 people taken 4 at a time:
30! 30!
P(30,4) = = = 30x29x28x2 7 = 657,720 ways
(30 - 4)! 26!

Example 3: Many auto license plates have three letters followed by three digits. How many different
license plates are possible if:
(a) letters and digits are not repeated on a license plate?
(b) repetitions of letters and digits are allowed?
(a) Using the Fundamental Counting Principle, the answer is:
the selection of letters × the selection of digits
= P(26, 3) × P(10, 3) (26 letters and 10 digits)
= 15,600 × 720 = 11,232,000

(b) This is NOT a permutation since a letter or a digit may appear more than once on a
license plate. Using the Fundamental Counting Principle, the answer is the
selection of three letters times the selection of three digits:
= (26 × 26 × 26) × (10 × 10 × 10)
= 17,576 × 1000 = 17,576,000

Example 4: Seven paintings are exhibited by art students. An art appreciation class is asked to rank the
top three; how many rankings are possible?
This is simply P(7, 3) = 7 × 6 × 5 = 210 rankings.

Example 5: A password to a computer consists of five characters—a letter, a digit, a letter, a digit, and a
letter in that order—where the numbers from 1 to 9 are allowed for digits. How many
different passwords are possible?
(a) if letters and digits are not repeated?
(b) if repetition of letters and digits is allowed?
(a) Using the Fundamental Counting Principle, the result is:
26 × 9 × 25 × 8 × 24 = 1,123,200 OR P(26, 3) × P(9, 2)
(b) Using the Fundamental Counting Principle, the result is:
26 × 9 × 26 × 9 × 26 = 1,423,656

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3. Combination:

Consider the difference between selecting a four-member committee and selecting four officers—a president,
vice-president, secretary, and treasurer. Selecting officers involves permutations. The following two sets of
officers are different even though the same people are included:
Smith: president Brown: president
Cooper: vice-president Cooper: vice-president
Martin: secretary Martin: secretary
Brown: treasurer Smith: treasurer
However, selecting a four-member committee does not involve permutations since order among the committee
members is NOT important (the above two sets are the same!). Such sets are called combinations.

Combination:
1. A combination selects elements from a single set.
2. Repetitions are not allowed.
3. The order in which the elements are arranged is NOT significant.

C(n, r) Notation:
For all positive integers n and r, where r ≤ n, the number of combinations of n things taken r at a
time is: C(n,r) = n!
(n - r)! r!

Example 1: How many 5-card hands can be formed from a deck of 52 cards?
The order of the cards is NOT important. Therefore, we must find the number of
combinations denoted by C(52, 5):
52! 52! 52 ⋅ 51 ⋅ 50 ⋅ 49 ⋅ 48
C(52, 5) = = = = 2,598,960
(52 - 5)! 5! 47! 5! 5 ⋅ 4 ⋅3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1

Example 2: How many ways are there to select 3 juniors and 4 seniors from a class with 10 freshmen, 15
sophomores, 18 juniors, and 20 seniors?

The 3 juniors can be selected in C(18, 3) ways.

18! 20!
C(18, 3)x C(20, 4) = x
(18 - 3)! 3! (20 - 4)! 4!
18 ⋅ 17 ⋅ 16 20 ⋅ 19 ⋅ 18 ⋅ 17
= x = 3,953,520
3⋅ 2 ⋅1 4 ⋅ 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1

Example 3: How many different committees can be selected from 8 men and 10 women if a committee is
composed of 3 men OR 3 women?
The list has two parts: a list of committees composed of 3 women and a list of committees
composed of 3 men. The total number of possible committees can be obtained by adding the
number of all-female committees to the number of all-male committees:
Number of 3-member all-female committees is C(10, 3) = 120
Number of 3-member all-male committees is C(8, 3) = 56

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 Total number of committees = 176

Example 4: A group of 5 is selected from 5 boys and 6 girls. How many groups are possible if there must
be at least 3 boys in the group?
The group has at least 3 boys when it has three, four, OR five boys. We must compute the
number of groups possible with three, four, and five, and add:
3 boys and 2 girls: C(5, 3) × C(6,2) = 10 × 15 = 150
4 boys and 1 girls: C(5, 4) × C(6,1) = 5 × 6 = 30
5 boys and 0 girls: C(5, 5) × C(6,0) = 1 × 1 = 1
The total is 150 + 30 + 1 = 181

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Revised: Summer 2005
STUDENT LEARNING ASSISTANCE CENTER (SLAC)
Texas State University-San Marcos