Critical Issues in

Transportation
2013
transportation research board
2013 executive committee*
Chair: Deborah H. Butler, Executive Vice President, Planning, and CIO, Norfolk Southern Corporation, Norfolk, Virginia
Vice Chair: Kirk T. Steudle, Director, Michigan Department of Transportation, Lansing
Executive Director: Robert E. Skinner, Jr., Transportation Research Board

Victoria A. Arroyo, Executive Director, Georgetown Climate Center, and Visiting Professor, Georgetown University Law Center, Washington, D.C.
Scott E. Bennett, Director, Arkansas State Highway and Transportation Department, Little Rock
William A. V. Clark, Professor of Geography (emeritus) and Professor of Statistics (emeritus), Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles
James M. Crites, Executive Vice President of Operations, Dallas–Fort Worth International Airport, Texas
Malcolm Dougherty, Director, California Department of Transportation, Sacramento
John S. Halikowski, Director, Arizona Department of Transportation, Phoenix
Michael W. Hancock, Secretary, Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, Frankfort
Susan Hanson, Distinguished University Professor Emerita, School of Geography, Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts
Steve Heminger, Executive Director, Metropolitan Transportation Commission, Oakland, California
Chris T. Hendrickson, Duquesne Light Professor of Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Jeffrey D. Holt, Managing Director, Bank of Montreal Capital Markets, and Chairman, Utah Transportation Commission, Huntsville, Utah
Gary P. LaGrange, President and CEO, Port of New Orleans, Louisiana
Michael P. Lewis, Director, Rhode Island Department of Transportation, Providence
Joan McDonald, Commissioner, New York State Department of Transportation, Albany
Donald A. Osterberg, Senior Vice President, Safety and Security, Schneider National, Inc., Green Bay, Wisconsin
Steve Palmer, Vice President of Transportation, Lowe’s Companies, Inc., Mooresville, North Carolina
Sandra Rosenbloom, Professor, University of Texas, Austin (Past Chair, 2012)
Henry G. (Gerry) Schwartz, Jr., Chairman (retired), Jacobs/Sverdrup Civil, Inc., St. Louis, Missouri
Kumares C. Sinha, Olson Distinguished Professor of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana
Daniel Sperling, Professor of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science and Policy; Director, Institute of Transportation Studies; University of California, Davis
Gary C. Thomas, President and Executive Director, Dallas Area Rapid Transit, Dallas, Texas
Paul Trombino III, Director, Iowa Department of Transportation, Ames
Phillip A. Washington, General Manager, Regional Transportation District, Denver, Colorado

Rebecca M. Brewster, President and COO, American Transportation Research Institute, Marietta, Georgia (ex officio)
Anne S. Ferro, Administrator, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
John T. Gray II, Senior Vice President, Policy and Economics, Association of American Railroads, Washington, D.C. (ex officio)
Michael P. Huerta, Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
Paul N. Jaenichen, Sr., Acting Administrator, Maritime Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
Michael P. Melaniphy, President and CEO, American Public Transportation Association, Washington, D.C. (ex officio)
Victor M. Mendez, Administrator, Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
Robert J. Papp (Adm., U.S. Coast Guard), Commandant, U.S. Coast Guard, U.S. Department of Homeland Security (ex officio)
Lucy Phillips Priddy, Research Civil Engineer, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Vicksburg, Mississippi, and Chair, TRB Young Members Council (ex officio)
Cynthia L. Quarterman, Administrator, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
Peter M. Rogoff, Administrator, Federal Transit Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
Craig A. Rutland, U.S. Air Force Pavement Engineer, Air Force Civil Engineer Center, Tyndall Air Force Base, Florida (ex officio)
David L. Strickland, Administrator, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
Joseph C. Szabo, Administrator, Federal Railroad Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
Polly Trottenberg, Under Secretary for Policy, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
Robert L. Van Antwerp (Lt. General, U.S. Army), Chief of Engineers and Commanding General, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, D.C. (ex officio)
Barry R. Wallerstein, Executive Officer, South Coast Air Quality Management District, Diamond Bar, California (ex officio)
Gregory D. Winfree, Administrator, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
Frederick G. (Bud) Wright, Executive Director, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, D.C. (ex officio)

* Membership as of November 2013.

Critical Issues in
Transportation
2013

T
he United States depends on transpor- deaths and injuries from crashes, demand
tation to compete globally and to help for imported petroleum, and the release of
revive a sluggish domestic economy. greenhouse gas emissions and other forms of
Individuals depend on transportation pollution.
not only to get to work but to shop, socialize,
and access health care, among other goals focusing on research
(1). For all of its benefits to the nation and
individuals, however, transportation imposes The Executive Committee of the Transporta-
large costs—lost time in traffic congestion, tion Research Board (TRB) has compiled a list
of critical issues in transportation for 2013 to
stimulate awareness and debate and to focus
research on the most pressing transportation
issues facing the nation:

• The performance of the transportation system

is neither reliable nor resilient, yet transporta-
tion’s role in economic revival and in global
economic competition has never been more
important.
• The nation suffers significant, avoidable
deaths and injuries every year, although safety
has improved markedly.
• Although essential in meeting economic
and social goals, transportation exerts large-
scale, unsustainable impacts on energy, the The freight transportation system
environment, and climate. must adapt to a projected 80
• Inadequate funding sources for public infra- percent growth in gross domestic
structure impede the performance and safety product in the next 25 years.
of the transportation system, but alterna-
Passengers wait for a delayed flight at an airport. tive sources of funding may place a larger
Despite the nation’s leading role in the world financial burden on users who are least able
economy, its transportation system lacks reliability. to pay.

critical issues in transportation 3

• Although the United States is known for its negative. This massive transportation system
creativity and its problem solving, innova- may be adequate to serve today’s population
tion in passenger mobility services and in and economy, although highly congested
public-sector infrastructure lags far behind that locations make that contestable. Nevertheless,
in the private sector. maintenance and expansion are necessary to
• The research and development (R&D) invest- accommodate an expected 20 percent growth
ment necessary for finding and adopting new in population—an additional 66 million peo-
solutions is low and declining. ple—and an 80 percent growth in the gross
domestic product (GDP) in the next 25 years
The following discussion highlights infor- (2, 3). Whether the transportation system can
mation developed in recent reports by TRB meet these needs is an open question.
and other divisions of the National Research This unranked list of critical issues presents
Council. recurrent themes made more prominent by
the concerns of the day. The rancorous debate
system scale and scope about deficits and taxes has precluded the
national government from addressing the
The U.S. transportation system is enormous investment needed to improve transportation
by any measure (see text box, below), and its system performance. Congress reflects the
tremendous scale and scope testify both to its differing visions that Americans have for the
importance and to its impacts, positive and federal role in funding infrastructure—for

Transportation Modes and Usage

highway: More than 250 million vehicles generate nearly 4 trillion passenger miles and 1.3
trillion motor carrier ton miles annually on 4 million miles of roadways.
air: 7,800 commercial aircraft generate 550 billion passenger miles annually between major
airports.
transit: 7.5 percent of work trips in the largest metropolitan areas; 22 billion passenger miles
by bus and trolley transit; commuter and urban rail transit generate 30 billion passenger
miles annually on almost 11,000 miles of track.
walking and cycling: Nearly 12 percent of daily trips are by walking or cycling, a total in
excess of 45 billion trips annually.
rail: 24,000 Class I locomotives pull more than 1 million cars, generating 1.3 trillion ton miles
on 96,000 miles of freight railroad track.
ports and waterways: More than $1 trillion in commerce moves in the nation’s 12 largest
ocean ports. More than 9,000 vessels and 30,000 barges move 157 billion ton miles
annually on 25,000 miles of navigable channels of the Inland Waterway System.
pipeline: More than 175,000 miles of crude oil and 325,000 miles of gas
transmission lines move two-thirds of the nation’s energy supplies.

sources
Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). Pocket Guide to Transportation. U.S. Department of
Transportation, 2012, Tables 2-1, 2-2, 3-1, 4-6.
BTS. National Transportation Statistics, Table 1-51, www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/
files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/index.html. Accessed May 25, 2013.
Census Transportation Planning Products, Chapter 4. www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/census_issues/
ctpp/data_products/journey_to_work/jtw4.cfm. Accessed May 20, 2013.
National Bicycling and Walking Study. U.S. Department of Transportation, 2010. http://katana.
hsrc.unc.edu/cms/downloads/15-year_report.pdf. Accessed July 12, 2013.

4 critical issues in transportation

 Dynamic message signs
alert motorists to upcoming
congestion. On many of the
nation’s highways, population
and traffic growth have
outstripped capacity.

example, whether to raise federal taxes or to goods shipped by truck, which account for
rely on the states or to fund intercity high- three-quarters of the value of domestic goods
speed passenger rail. States are shouldering shipped.
greater responsibility for funding, but whether In the 2012 legislation reauthorizing federal
they can—or should—without substantial highway and transit programs, Congress
federal support is part of the debate. moved toward measuring the performance
Continued uncertainty about the direction and increasing the accountability of recipients
of federal policy and about funding shortfalls of funds. Meaningful performance measures,
underscores the importance of research. The however, are difficult to define and imple-
discovery and adoption of new solutions to the ment. Many of the intended outcomes, such
critical issues can help address the daunting as improving safety and accessibility, are
challenges ahead. affected by far more than infrastructure capac-
ity. Moreover, agencies do not collect the data
critical issues 2013 required to measure other outcomes, such
as system reliability or travel times in peak
System performance is neither reliable periods. A major effort is required to define
nor resilient. appropriate performance measures; to develop
Transportation systems operate at capacity for consistent, valid indicators; and to support
substantial periods of the day. Unanticipated data collection (5, 6).
events, such as crashes or inclement and ex- Competition between modes and shortages
treme weather, can greatly disrupt traffic and of funding are forcing all modes to operate
intensify congestion and delays. Motorists and more efficiently; this challenge, however, par-
motor carriers on metropolitan area high- ticularly affects public infrastructure agencies,
ways and travelers on intercity planes, trains, which lack the necessary resources (7). Agen-
and buses experience delays more routinely, cies that were established to build systems are
because expansion of the system has slowed only slowly adapting to the need to operate
despite the continuing growth in the popula- the systems efficiently. Because the indi-
tion and in the economy. vidual modes of transportation are organized,
In many major metropolitan areas, motor- funded, and managed independently, optimiz-
ists who must arrive at their destinations on ing system performance to take advantage of
time must allow 60 minutes for trips that the relative strengths of each mode is difficult.
take only 20 minutes in lighter traffic (4). Research and policy analysis can guide agen- www.trb.org/Publications/Blurbs/
The delays to motor carriers raise the cost of cies and Congress in making good decisions 164998.aspx

critical issues in transportation 5

 about technologies and operating practices The damage to transportation systems caused
that can improve system performance. by Superstorm Sandy in 2012 revealed a need for
A major performance issue across all modes better preparation for and response to emergency
is the inadequacy of preparation for natural weather events.
and human-made disasters, as well as for
extreme weather events, which may become motor vehicle deaths annually (10). Highway
more frequent with climate change. For fatalities increased in 2012 (11).
example, in 2012, Superstorm Sandy flooded Almost all transportation fatalities—
subways, airport runways, roads, marine approximately 94 percent—occur on highways
terminals, and railroad tracks in New York and mostly involve passenger vehicle crashes.
and New Jersey, causing tens of billions of dol- New entertainment and navigation systems
lars in economic losses and physical damage. threaten to increase driver distraction. New
Systems were quick to respond but slow to technologies hold great promise for avoiding
www.trb.org/Publications/Blurbs/ recover because of the amount of devastation, crashes, yet the unintended consequences of
156825.aspx which vividly illustrated the physical and eco- increasingly complex electronics systems can
nomic vulnerability of coastal infrastructure undermine public confidence and acceptance
to storm surges and sea level rise (8). Planning (12). As safety technologies become increas-
for adaptation, accompanied by an analysis ingly automated and complex, the task of
of alternative strategies, is required to guide integrating the human with the system
policy decisions about protecting and locating
extensive vulnerable transportation assets,
particularly in coastal areas where the major-
ity of the U.S. population resides (9).

Safety has improved, but avoidable losses

are still significant.
The crash of the South Korean Asiana jet at
San Francisco Airport in July 2013 was the
first large passenger aircraft crash in the
United States since 2001. Between 2007 and
2011, highway fatalities in the United States
declined sharply. Yet despite improvements
www.trb.org/Publications/Blurbs/ in safety, the toll in death and injury on U.S. Although highway safety has improved, the
166563.aspx highways is high, with more than 30,000 number of motor vehicle deaths remains high.

6 critical issues in transportation

 of U.S. petroleum consumption and has
driven the demand for oil imports, often from
unstable parts of the world. A reduction in
imports will be good for the economy, but
the availability of fossil fuels for transporta-
tion will have significant climate impacts as
transportation demand continues to grow. A
combination of technological innovation and
regulation is placing the nation on a trajec-
tory of greatly reduced fuel consumption and
greenhouse gas emissions for cars and possibly
for trucks.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Despite projected improvements in fuel
efficiency and a gradual shift to low-carbon
energy—in the United States and elsewhere—
Field sobriety tests and other enforcement nations may not achieve the shared policy goal www.trb.org/Publications/Blurbs/
strategies can prevent highway fatalities and 164388.aspx
of stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of
injuries.
greenhouse gases by midcentury. Reaching
these goals would require emissions reductions
becomes more important and demanding, as of 60 to 80 percent worldwide in the next four
does the process of safety assurance to avoid decades (16).
electronic and software failures. In the United States, transportation pro-
Meanwhile, well-known enforcement duces one-third of U.S. carbon dioxide emis-
measures can prevent thousands of highway sions and is therefore a target for additional
deaths and injuries every year. The United regulation, following the examples of Califor-
States could learn from successful programs nia and other states. A policy debate will have
and enforcement strategies used in other to determine how to sustain and enhance the
industrialized nations (13). economic and social benefits of transportation
Each mode has specific safety issues, but while reducing transportation emissions of
managing the fatigue from shift work in sup- greenhouse gases. Objective research is sorely
port of 24-hour operations is common to all. needed to inform this debate.
Rail, pipeline, commercial aviation, and air
traffic control have good safety records, but
must continually manage against the risk of A drill pad in the Marcellus Shale gas play in
southwestern Pennsylvania. Greater domestic oil www.trb.org/Publications/Blurbs/
low-probability, high-consequence events. On-
and gas production has altered the U.S. energy 165535.aspx
going research on risk analysis, high-reliability landscape dramatically.
organizations, safety culture, and fatigue
management, with implementation of the
findings, could yield important safety benefits.

The impacts on energy, climate, and the

environment are unsustainable.
Dramatic increases in the U.S. domestic
production of shale oil and gas have profound
implications for national security, climate im-
pacts, and transportation. Forecasts indicate
that the United States may become nearly en-
ergy independent, although large oil imports
are expected well into the future (14, 15).
Transportation accounts for two-thirds

critical issues in transportation 7

 transportation’s share of u.s. petroleum use

Million barrels per day

15
Transportation

12

6
Industry

3
Residential
Utilities
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

www.trb.org/Publications/Blurbs/ Freight Repercussions by truck and rail. The drilling of new oil wells
169153.aspx The changing energy supply is also affecting requires transport of heavy equipment, frack-
freight services. The increased regulation of ing sands, and other supplies to rural loca-
emissions at coal-burning utilities, coupled tions, which may have inadequate roads and
with low natural gas prices from an abundant bridges for the heavy traffic. Despite growth
domestic supply, has contributed to natural in domestic production, the pipeline transpor-
gas displacing coal as the baseload fuel for tation of diluted bitumen from Canada’s oil
generating electricity in many parts of the sands region is in high demand at U.S. refiner-
country. This is a positive change from a ies, stoking public concerns about continued
climate perspective but has affected railroads’ dependence on fossil fuels and about the risks
traffic mix and revenues. Increased demand of spills.
for coal exports may partly offset the reduced
demand for coal transportation to domestic Development Patterns
utilities but introduces other controversy over Motor vehicle use has rapidly expanded in
coal dust and the impacts of new export termi- the United States in recent decades, resulting
nals in environmentally sensitive areas. in large increases in transportation energy
Geographic shifts in oil and gas supply, demand. The nation’s large land area has con-
often in areas not well served by pipelines, tributed to the increased travel. But develop-
leads to the greatly expanded transport of oil ment in the United States, compared with that
in most other heavily populated industrialized
nations, has spread population at a low density
per square mile. The blessing of abundant land
becomes a curse in terms of energy consump-
tion and vehicle emissions.
The United States consumes far more
energy per capita than other developed
countries do—approximately twice as much
as the European nations in the Organisation
for Economic Co-operation and Development
(17). Total automobile travel per capita in the
United States is three times that of Japan and
nearly twice that of Germany and the United

Geographic shifts in U.S. oil and gas supply

have led to increased rail and truck transportation
of fuel.

8 critical issues in transportation

Although pedestrian and bicycle travel in the United States are growing, along with transit- and pedestrian-
friendly development, automobile travel remains high.

Kingdom (18), in part because origins and tions. The effects of the Great Recession on
destinations in the United States are spaced these changes, however, are unclear. A deeper
farther apart. In addition, the United States understanding is needed of people’s choices
has not invested as heavily as other developed and how they change in response to the econ-
nations in public transportation and has not omy, lifestyle preferences, the use of informa-
placed constraints on patterns of develop- tion technologies and social media to replace
ment. Not surprisingly, more Americans have travel and to provide more efficient travel op-
chosen travel by automobile than comparable tions, the aging of the baby boom generation,
travelers in other industrial countries. and immigration. This knowledge could help
Concerns about sustainability, personal localities improve planning for transportation
physical activity, health, and livability have re- services, infrastructure, and policies.
newed debates about the form and density of One of the biggest environmental success
development and about transportation’s role. stories in the United States is cleaner air,
In response to changing preferences for urban partly the result of cleaner-burning engines
lifestyles, many jurisdictions are changing and fuels. More improvements are expected
policies to allow for denser development that from tighter emissions standards for transpor-
supports greater reliance on transit, cycling, tation vehicles and fuel economy standards
and walking. This has stimulated interest in for highway vehicles. Nonetheless, 123 million
reorienting autocentric places, as well as a people—more than one-third of the U.S.
vigorous debate about how much the strate- population—live in areas that do not meet
gies would reduce automobile demand and federal standards for ozone (20), resulting in
associated emissions (19). respiratory and other health effects that likely
contribute to premature deaths (21).
Other Effects
Total U.S. travel per capita appears to have lev- Funding sources for public infrastructure
eled off, and the youngest driving-age cohorts are inadequate.
appear to have different driving and lifestyle In the past century or more, the nation has
www.trb.org/Publications/Blurbs/
preferences from those of previous genera- invested in a massive transportation system 162093.aspx

critical issues in transportation 9

 that has to be maintained and expanded to Surface Transportation
accommodate the world’s largest economy and Federal and state highway taxes that generate
a growing population. The cost is formidable. revenues dedicated for highway and transit
As with any asset, the infrastructure that funding are declining as a result of fuel econ-
supports the nation’s transportation demand omy and inflation; increased wear and tear
wears out and requires maintenance to avoid from growing travel exacerbates the decline in
premature failure. funding (25). A federal emphasis on improv-
The costs for maintaining and improving ing the state of good repair in transit systems
public roads and highways exceed $100 billion and on overall asset management is occurring
annually; indications are that this level of at the same time that funding to meet growing
investment is inadequate (22–24). With the demand—and to address a backlog of capital
scale of federal deficits and the potentially needs—is in question.
dramatic reductions in transportation trust Two national commissions have sounded
fund expenditures,1 obtaining federal funds to alarms and have identified options and po-
maintain and expand the transportation sys- tential new revenue sources (23, 24). Resis-
tem will be a challenge, as will increased reli- tance at the state and national level to fuel
www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_ ance on state and local governments, which tax increases reflects perceptions of public
id=12198 have been unable to close the funding gap. opposition, which nonetheless appears to be
mutable.2 Congressional inaction to evaluate

1
Unless Congress acts to change expenditure levels 2
Many general opinion polls show majority opposition to
or taxes, the trust fund will have fewer receipts than fuel tax increases, but the answers depend on how the
expenditures in 2015, continuing a trend of the past questions are framed. For example, one research project
several years. Moreover, if Congress chooses not to found that the majority supported increases under certain
transfer monies from the general fund in 2015—projected conditions, such as when the revenues are specifically
at $15 billion in 2015, compared with $6 billion in 2013— dedicated to improving maintenance. See A. W. Agrawal
the trust fund would not be able to support any new and H. Nixon, What Do Americans Really Think About
obligation of federal funding in 2015, because any cash on Federal Tax Options to Support Public Transit, Highways, and
hand would be required to liquidate previous obligations. Local Streets and Roads? Results from Year 4 of a National
This would result effectively in a cut of approximately Survey, Mineta Transportation Institute, 2013. http://
$50 billion in federal aid in that year. See K. P. Cawley, transweb.sjsu.edu/PDFs/research/1228-American-tax-
Testimony: Status of the Highway Trust Fund, Congressional poll-2013-public-transit-highways-streets-roads.pdf.
Budget Office, July 23, 2013. Accessed July 12, 2013.

8-hour ozone nonattainment areas, july 2012 (2008 standard)

www.trb.org/Publications/Blurbs/
156647.aspx

7/2012

8-hour Ozone
Classification
Extreme
Severe 15
Serious
Moderate
Nonattainment areas are indicated by color. Marginal
When only a portion of a county is shown in
color, it indicates that only that part of the
county is within a nonattainment area boundary.

10 critical issues in transportation

alternative, innovative electronic means of
charging highway users directly has postponed
a national pilot test to determine the technical
and political feasibility and affordability. The
equity considerations of these financing ap-
proaches depend on the use of the revenues;
in contrast, the growing state and local reli-
ance on sales taxes, instead of user fees, places
a greater burden on those who use the system
least and who are least able to pay (26).

Aviation
The demand for air travel has increased stead-
ily but slowly since the Great Recession began.
With capacity flat—or slightly declining—the
number of passengers per flight has increased,
and profitability has improved for many U.S.
airlines, although marginally. Freight Railroads Fuel tax revenues have declined
steadily, even as infrastructure
At the same time, however, collections to Major freight railroads are privately owned
demands continue to grow.
the aviation trust fund that supports the oper- and make extensive capital investments to
ating and capital costs of air traffic control and sustain their systems; recent capital invest-
airport capital assistance have not kept pace ments have reached record levels (28).
with costs; as a result, transfers from the gen- Federal policies that affect capital allocation
eral fund have increased. Uncertainty about can divert these private investments from
the federal government’s willingness to pay essential needs. For example, a federal regula-
as much as 25 to 40 percent of annual federal tion requires freight railroads to invest in
aviation agency budgets for operations from train control technologies that would avoid
the general fund (27) threatens the level of air train-to-train collisions and that would allow
traffic services offered, the modernization of passenger trains to mix safely on track shared
the air traffic control system, and capital grants with freight trains, including those carrying
to fund infrastructure renewal and expansion toxic inhalation hazards. Compliance involves
at airports. large costs and significant technical hurdles
for freight railroads (29). Meanwhile, the

Airplanes line up for takeoff. Federal funds for air traffic control and airport capital assistance face an www.trb.org/Publications/Blurbs/
uncertain future. 165823.aspx

critical issues in transportation 11

 and whether agricultural and other shippers
can rely on other modes or have alternative
markets for their goods. In 2012, low river
levels from a prolonged drought in the Mid-
west sharpened debates about devoting water
resources to transportation instead of to other
public uses.
Many ocean ports are seeking deeper chan-
nels and harbors in response to possible shifts
in logistics and in port calls after the widening
of the Panama Canal and the possibility of
Asian imports arriving directly to East Coast
ports instead of crossing North America by
Private railroad capital investments
rail. A major realignment of shipping patterns
have reached record levels.
would affect many large-scale investments and
proposed large-scale expansion of intercity jobs. The federal harbor maintenance fund
passenger rail service, including services that for improving harbors and channels for larger
would share track with freight trains, lacks vessels has a surplus that Congress has been
funding at the federal and state levels. unwilling to spend, although many harbors
and channels that could be affected by the
Water Transportation Panama Canal expansion are not adequately
Marine transport moves low-cost shipments of maintained to meet current or expected
coal and other bulk products and helps sustain demand (31, 32).
agricultural exports, yet user-fee revenues to States, local governments, and special
the inland waterway trust fund are well below authorities share capital funding with federal
the levels required to sustain and operate the sources but bear the majority of operating
system. National policy makers disagree about and maintenance expenses for public infra-
what share of the cost should be borne by structure. As the federal government struggles
general taxpayer revenue (30). to constrain the budget deficit, more capital
The nation’s inland waterway Debates in Congress and at the state and lo- funding responsibilities may shift to these
system lacks the funding to cal level are addressing who should pay—and levels of government.
address infrastructure needs. in what proportion—for inland waterways Increasing state sales and other general
taxes to fund transportation, however, threat-
ens to undermine the user-pay principle that
has sustained highway funding for decades
and raises broad equity concerns. The emer-
gence of a few privately financed toll facilities,
although supported by user fees, also raises
questions about equity. For public infrastruc-
ture, a better economic basis is needed for
deciding which investments to make, where,
and how to finance such improvements (33).
More extensive evaluation research in this and
other areas could pay large dividends.

Innovation lags—and R&D investment

is low and declining.
New technologies and innovations that prom-
ise more efficient and sustainable travel have
been implemented haltingly and incompletely,
particularly in the public sector. For example,
the long-needed upgrades to air traffic control

12 critical issues in transportation

transportation research and development as a percentage of
gross domestic product, 1961–2012

0.08%

0.07%

0.06%

0.05%

0.04%

0.03%

0.02%

0.01%

0.00%
61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20

systems and technologies face controversy over demand-responsive transit—that could play
the sharing of the expense between the private a large role in improving passenger transport
and public sectors and uncertain federal fund- efficiency, serving those without access to cars,
ing (27). Safety regulators are hard-pressed to and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
ensure that new safety technologies will work Nevertheless, innovations are being
as intended (12). The new required systems introduced and implemented. Electronic
to avoid train crashes on shared track must stability control technology is saving lives
overcome daunting technical challenges. Major by reducing motor vehicle rollover crashes
public-sector investments in information (34). Electronic toll passes are increasingly
and communications technologies have yet interchangeable across multiple toll collec-
to produce the dramatic changes in mobil- tion systems. Real-time data on traffic and
ity services—such as dynamic ridesharing or parking are being delivered to mobile devices

New vehicles and technologies

face funding, regulatory, and
other hurdles.

critical issues in transportation 13

 train the professionals who will design, imple-
ment, and maintain the needed innovations.
U.S. R&D has been increasing as a percent-
age of GDP and now approaches 3 percent
(36), but federal investments in transporta-
tion R&D have declined steadily in real terms
and amount to a mere 0.01 percent of GDP.
Yet this funding is the basic building block
for innovation in the public sector—through
discovery and through the education of the
future workforce.

harnessing the will

People use transportation as a means to
achieve what they seek in their lives—access
to employment; connections with family,
friends, and communities; and access to
consumer goods, health care, and recreational
opportunities. Addressing the major chal-
lenges discussed above implies broad changes
that may prove disruptive in the short run but
also open up exciting new possibilities.
Although critical issues are identified one
Investment in research and to aid traveler decision making. New services, by one in this document, they do not stand
development can foster innovation built on telecommunications technologies, to alone. Technological innovations, for example,
in the technology and infrastructure share rides, cars, and bikes, are gaining use provide new means to increase fuel economy,
of a changing transportation
in several metropolitan areas. New vehicles, and improve system performance, which
landscape.
including trucks and locomotives, incorpo- reduces demand for new capacity and energy
rate multiple energy-saving technologies. consumption and thereby reduces emissions.
Increasingly sophisticated logistics continue Technological innovations also could allow
to reduce shipping and inventory costs. The revenues to be raised from users more effi-
increased automation of vehicles and the ciently, equitably, and effectively. Institutional
transformation in urban travel services offer and policy reforms, if achieved, could allow
exciting prospects. Another positive sign is wider exploitation of technologies and policies
that state transportation departments and the that improve performance and safety.
Federal Highway Administration are gearing In the 21st century, transportation col-
up to implement a host of innovations devel- lectively can support or undercut national
oped through the second Strategic Highway aspirations. The challenges are great, but the
Research Program (35). opportunities also are great, if the United
The public sector, however, remains averse States can harness the will to invest and in-
to risk—sometimes for good reasons. Con- novate for a brighter future.
certed R&D is needed to identify and manage
the risks and to evaluate the benefits and chal-
lenges of new technologies. This funding also
supports the technology transfer required to
push innovation in the public sector.
R&D that informs public policy can acceler-
ate innovation—for example, by reforming
institutions and restrictive laws and policies
that constrain the efficient and integrated per-
formance of all modes. This funding also helps

14 critical issues in transportation

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critical issues in transportation 15

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