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    Za Šta Se Koristi Analiza Ebar

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    Maksim Plebejac
    EBaR analysis can be applied to evaluate new energy-efficient investments and their risks based on future variations in electric prices and operation hours, measuring returns as energy cost savings and internal rate of return. Like VaR, EBaR distills risk information into a single decision variable like EBaRirr,90 representing the lowest likely IRR at a 90% confidence level, permitting investment evaluation based on both returns and associated risk.

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    Za Šta Se Koristi Analiza Ebar

    Uploaded by

    Maksim Plebejac
    36 views2 pages
    EBaR analysis can be applied to evaluate new energy-efficient investments and their risks based on future variations in electric prices and operation hours, measuring returns as energy cost savings and internal rate of return. Like VaR, EBaR distills risk information into a single decision variable like EBaRirr,90 representing the lowest likely IRR at a 90% confidence level, permitting investment evaluation based on both returns and associated risk.

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    EBaR

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    Jerry Jackson EBaR

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    EBaR analysis can be applied to evaluate new energy-efficient investments and their risks based on future variations in electric prices and operation hours, measuring returns as energy cost savings and internal rate of return. Like VaR, EBaR distills risk information into a single decision variable like EBaRirr,90 representing the lowest likely IRR at a 90% confidence level, permitting investment evaluation based on both returns and associated risk.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    36 views2 pages

    Za Šta Se Koristi Analiza Ebar

    Uploaded by

    Maksim Plebejac
    EBaR analysis can be applied to evaluate new energy-efficient investments and their risks based on future variations in electric prices and operation hours, measuring returns as energy cost savings and internal rate of return. Like VaR, EBaR distills risk information into a single decision variable like EBaRirr,90 representing the lowest likely IRR at a 90% confidence level, permitting investment evaluation based on both returns and associated risk.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Jerry Jackson EBaR

    VaR analysis, with a history that traces back to 1922,3 was popularized by JP Morgan in the
    early 1990s and is now widely used in financial analysis to assess risks associated with
    investments and financial portfolios. As indicated in Figure 1.4, VaR statistics show the
    maximum daily, weekly or monthly portfolio loss that can be expected to occur based on a
    specified confidence level. A variety of other “at risk” measures such as Earnings at
    Risk, Profits at Risk and Cash Flow at Risk have been developed. Technical analysis related to
    estimation of these VaR-related risk measures is now
    an active area of academic and applied research. U.S. and international financial regulatory
    agencies have adopted VaR analysis to evaluate financial
    institutions’ risk exposure. As indicated in the lower panel of Figure 1.4,
    EBaR reflects an energy budget-counterpart to VaR analysis (Jackson, 2008: 8).

    Za šta se koristi analiza EBaR

    EBaR analysis can be applied to evaluate new energy-efficient investments—


    such as replacing existing fluorescent ballasts and lamps with new high
    efficiency products. Future variations in electric price and uncertainty over
    the number of hours each fixture will operate result in a distribution of
    likely returns on this investment. Returns can be measured as annual energy
    cost savings and an internal rate of return, IRR. reflects the effective yield on the efficiency
    investment (Jackson, 2008: 8-9).

    Slika 1.4 Korenspondencija koncepata analize VaR i EBaR (2008: 9)

    One reason that VaR analysis is so widely used is its distillation of the
    many dimensions of information on return and risk into a single decision
    variable. EBaR decision variables provide the same advantage. For instance, if EBaRirr,90, the
    smallest internal rate of return likely at the 90 percent confidence level, is greater than a given
    threshold, say, a return of 25 percent, the investment will be recommended for further
    consideration. An EBaRirr,90 of 45 percent means that there is no more than a 10 percent
    probability that the internal rate of return will be less than 45. A more conservative EBaR
    statistic for the investment, say EBaRirr,95 = 0.35, permits only a 5 percent chance of achieving
    a return of less than 35 percent (2008: 11-12).

    Kretanje cena energenata (električne energije, prirodnog gasa, nafte) (2008: 16-20)

    Thus, EBaR replaces the single-dimension decision variable, payback


    (or an IRR hurdle rate), with a single-dimension decision variable, EBaRirr,x,
    where x is the confidence level. The difference is that payback and traditional
    IRR analysis is based on initial cost and a single estimate of expected savings,
    whereas EBaR analysis is based on initial cost and likely distributions of expected savings with
    an explicit consideration of risk. Short payback periods
    accommodate risk by only accepting almost sure bets, while EBaR analysis
    identifies desirable investments based on both investment returns and the
    associated risk. In other words, EBaR-based analysis manages risk, while
    payback analysis attempts to avoid risk by setting conservative investment
    criteria (2008: 13).

    Modeli za predviđanje ponude i potražnje (2008: 26-29)

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