2018-3-29 Moldova Poll Presentation
2018-3-29 Moldova Poll Presentation
2018-3-29 Moldova Poll Presentation
Residents of Moldova
February-March 2018
Detailed Methodology
• The survey was coordinated by Dr. Rasa Alisauskiene from Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the Center
for Insights in Survey Research. The field work was carried out by Magenta Consulting.
• Data was collected throughout Moldova (with the exception of Transnistria) between February 7 and March 7, 2018
through face-to-face interviews in respondents’ homes.
• The sample consisted of 1,513 permanent residents of Moldova aged 18 and older and eligible to vote and is
representative of the general population by age, gender, region and settlement size.
• Sampling frame: Moldova Statistical Databank. Weighting: Data weighted for 11 regional groups, urban/rural and gender.
• A multistage probability sampling method was used, with the random route and next birthday respondent selection
procedures.
• Stage one: All districts of Moldova are grouped into 11 groups; all regions (with the exception of Transnistria)
were surveyed.
• Stage two: Selection of the settlements (cities and villages).
• Settlements were selected at random.
• The number of settlements selected in each region was proportional to the share of population living in the
particular type of settlement in each region.
• Stage three: Primary sampling units were described.
• The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.5 percent.
• Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.
• The survey was funded by the United States Agency for International Development.
2
Mood of the Country
Generally speaking, do you think that things in Moldova are going
in the right direction or wrong direction?
Right direction Wrong direction Don't know, no answer
90%
83% 82%
79% 78%
80%
73% 74% 73%
70% 66%
61%
58% 57% 58% 62%
60% 54% 55% 54% 53%
51%
47% 45% 51%
50%
47%
42%
40% 38% 38% 41%
40% 42% 41% 32%
30% 37%
34% 33% 32% 33%
30% 31%
20% 27% 19% 26%
22% 21% 13% 11%
17% 9% 10% 16%
10% 14% 15% 14% 15% 5% 5%
12% 11% 13% 14%
10% 11% 12% 1%
8% 9% 8% 5% 8% 6% 6%
0%
Mar-04
Mar-07
Mar-16
Mar-17
Apr-06
Apr-08
Jun-09
Jun-14
Sep-10
Sep-14
Sep-16
Jan-12
Feb-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
Feb-18
Nov-04
Nov-08
Nov-09
May-10
Dec-11
Oct-15
Oct-17
*In December 2014, news broke of a major banking scandal involving nearly $1 billion missing from three state banks. The scandal is
often referred to as “the stolen billion.”
**In 2016, Moldova conducted the first popular election of the president since 1996. Igor Dodon was elected in the second round 4
contest on November 13, 2016.
Are you satisfied with the pace of change in Moldova today?
I am satisfied; change is happening at the right pace
I am dissatisfied; change is not happening fast enough
I am dissatisfied; change is happening too fast
No change is taking place
Don’t know/No answer
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
5
Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation in
Moldova changed?
Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same
Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know/No answer
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
8
What are the most important problems that Moldova is facing at
the moment?
(Respondents permitted to supply three spontaneous answers)
Unemployment 14%
Expensive utilities/Housing 9%
Emigration 6%
High prices/Inflation 5%
Poverty 4%
Loneliness 3%
11
How satisfied are you with the way democracy is developing in
Moldova?
Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know/No answer
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
13
Views on Corruption
Do you consider the country to be governed in the interest of the
majority of people or the interest of some groups?
Majority of people Some groups Don't know/No answer
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
15
How big of a problem is corruption in Moldova today?
16
What, in your opinion, is the greatest cause of corruption in
Moldova?
February 2018 October 2017 March 2017
42%
Lack of government control and oversight 36%
38%
21%
Poverty and necessity 27%
25%
17%
The actions of business leaders and oligarchs 21%
21%
9%
Education levels of citizens 9%
11%
5%
Custom and history 4%
2%
2%
Other 1%
1%
5%
Don't know/No answer 3%
2%
30%
The Parliament 30%
20%
21%
Public servants (doctors, teachers, policemen) 22%
25%
11%
Judical branch 9%
10%
8%
Prime Minister and Cabinet 10%
11%
7%
Political parties and leadership of parties 7%
7%
7%
Business leaders, oligarchs 9%
13%
5%
Everywhere 4%
6%
4%
The President 4%
3%
3%
Local officials 3%
2%
Other 1%
1%
6%
Don't know/No answer 3%
2%
20
Are people in Moldova afraid or not to openly express their political
views?
Majority are afraid Many are afraid Some are afraid Nobody is afraid Don't know/No answer
Andrei Nastase 8%
Pavel Filip 6%
Zinaida Grecianii 6%
Vladimir Plahotniuc 4%
Vladimir Voronin 4%
Renato Usatii 2%
Irina Vlah 2%
Iurie Leancă 2%
Local mayor 1%
Andrian Candu 1%
Ilan Shor 1%
Other 13%
None 26%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
23
What is your opinion of each of the following institutions?
Favorable Unfavorable Don’t know/No answer
24
Youth Political Engagement
Do you think that today’s generation of young people has a good
future in Moldova?
6%
18%
Yes
No
76%
26
Which of the following should be the government’s first priority
regarding Moldovan youth?
28
Attitudes Toward the President,
Government and Local Authorities
Do you approve or disapprove of the activities of the President of
Moldova Igor Dodon?
Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don’t know/No answer
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
30
Do you approve or disapprove of the Filip government?
Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don’t know/No answer
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
31
What is your opinion of the activities of each of the following
Moldovan ministries?
Positive Negative Don’t know/No answer
32
What are the most important problems that the Filip government
must solve?
(Respondents permitted to supply three spontaneous answers)
Wages/Pensions 28%
Job creation 27%
Tackling corruption 12%
Economic performance 7%
Emigration 6%
Roads 6%
Low standard of living 5%
Disconnect between the government and citizens 5%
Consumer prices 4%
Government should quit 3%
Heathcare system 3%
Recovering the "stollen billion" 3%
Assistance to young people 3%
High price of utilities 3%
Issues of public order 2%
Social Assistance 2%
Assistance to pensioners 2%
Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don’t know/No answer
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
34
Do you think that the Moldovan parliament is responsive to the
needs of citizens like you?
Very responsive Rather responsive Rather not responsive Not responsive at all Don't know/No answer
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
35
Do you approve or disapprove of the activities of your local
government (i.e. mayor, local councilors and raion councilors)?
Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don’t know/No answer
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
*Below the central government, Moldova is divided administratively into 3 municipalities, 2 autonomous regions and 32 districts which
are referred to as raions. The raions are governed by a locally-elected council. 36
Parliamentary Elections
What is your opinion of the mixed election system, with half the
deputies being elected on party lists and half in single-mandate
constituencies? *
Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat do not support Strongly do not support Don’t know/No answer
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
* The wording of the question in March 2017 was: “Would you support reforming the electoral law to include a mixed election
system, with half the deputies being elected on party lists and half in single-mandate constituencies?”
38
How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next parliamentary
elections?
Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely Don't know/No answer
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
39
How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next parliamentary
elections?
(Disaggregated by age)
Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely Don't know/No answer
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
40
If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday and the
following political parties participated in the election, for which
political party would you vote?
First choice Second choice
Other 1% 1%
Other 1%
6% 8%
6% Don’t know/No answer
43
If there are two candidates running for office and they have the
same qualifications aside from the fact that one is a man and one is
a woman, which candidate are you more likely to support?
Would vote for the female candidate Makes no difference to me
Would vote for the male candidate Don’t know/No answer
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
44
Have you seen any political activists working in your area in the last
12 months?
Yes No Don't know/No answer
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
45
If yes, which political party did the political activists in your area
represent?
(Respondents who reported having seen political activists working in their
area: N=276; Respondents allowed to provide multiple answers)
Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (Greceanii) 54%
Shor Party 3%
Other 2%
46
International Relations
How would you assess current relations between Moldova and each
of the following countries?
Good Neither good nor bad Bad No answer
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
48
Which of these countries do you consider to be the greatest
economic partner, political partner and threat for Moldova?
European Union Russia Romania United States Ukraine None Don't know/No answer
80%
70%
70% 68%
60%
55% 56%
50%
44%
40% 38%
29% 30%
30% 27%
24% 24%
21%
20% 18%
16%
9% 10% 9%
10%
6% 6%
4%
1%
0%
Economic partner Political partner Threat
49
If Moldova could only join one international economic union, which
one should it be?
The European Union The Customs Union/Eurasian Union Other Don’t know/No answer
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
50
If Moldova could only join one international economic union, which
one should it be?
(Disaggregated by age)
The European Union The Customs Union/Eurasian Union Other Don’t know/No answer
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
51
If a referendum was held today on Moldova joining NATO, how would
you vote?
For Moldova joining NATO Against Moldova joining NATO Would not vote Don’t know/No answer
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
52
What do you think the future of Transnistria should be?
An ordinary region of Moldova, without any autonomous status An autonomous entity within the state of Moldova
A part of the Russian Federation A part of Ukraine
Independent Don't know/No answer
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
55
Which television channels do you watch for political information?
(TV channels mentioned at least by 1 percent of respondents)
Prime TV 48%
Moldova 1 27%
Jurnal TV 25%
Publica TV 21%
Pro TV 19%
RTR 14%
NTV 11%
Canal 3 9%
Canal 2 6%
TV8 4%
Rossia 2%
TNT 2%
N4 2%
Accent TV 1%
TV7 1%
2+ 1%
TVR1 1%
Ren TV 1%
CTC 1%
GTR 1%
56
If you had to choose one, which of the following channels do you
watch most of the time?
(TV channels mentioned at least by 1 percent of respondents)
Prime TV 26%
NTV 20%
RTR 19%
TNT 12%
CTC 12%
Canal 3 10%
Moldova 1 10%
Canal 2 8%
Jurnal TV 5%
TV1000 5%
Pro TV 4%
Discovery 3%
Publica TV 3%
N4 2%
Rossia 2%
Mir 24 1%
RenTV 1%
Domashnii 1%
TVR1 1%
2+ 1%
57
Which of the following is the primary channel you usually watch
most of the time if you had to choose one?
Prime TV 26%
Jurnal TV 12%
NTV 9%
Moldova 1 8%
RTR 7%
Pro TV 5%
TNT 5%
Publica TV 5%
Canal 3 3%
CTC 2%
Canal 2 1%
Other 7%
I do not watch TV 7%
58
How often do you use the internet?
Every day 5-6 days a week 3-4 days a week 1-2 days a week Less often Never Don't know/No answer
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
59
Do you own a smartphone which can access the internet?
(Respondents who use the internet)
February 2018
68% 30% 2%
(N=960)
October 2017
67% 32% 1%
(N=940)
March 2017
68% 30% 2%
(N=946)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
60
Do you use any of the following social media sites?
(Respondents who use the internet)
February 2018 (N=960) October 2017 (N=940) March 2017 (N=946) March 2016 (N=699)
68%
Odnoklassniki 65%
76%
72%
56%
Facebook 58%
59%
47%
18%
Instagram 22%
18%
13%
Vkontakte 18%
18%
14%
5%
MoiMir 6%
4%
8%
3%
Twitter 5%
5%
5%
3%
LiveJournal 1%
3%
1%
1%
Linkedin 1%
1%
2%
16%
I don’t use social media 14%
13%
16%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
61
How often do you use social media as a source of daily news?
(Respondents who use the internet)
3%
18%
Every day
Less often
7% Never
10%
Don't know/No answer
8%
62
Demographics
Demographics
GENDER
Male 47%
Female 53%
18-29 years 18%
AGE
Secondary 21%
Vocational 40%
Higher, incomplete higher 24%
Romanian 7%
Moldovan 75%
ETHNICITY
Russian 5%
Ukrainian 6%
Other 7%
Russian Orthodox 86%
RELIGION
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
64
Demographics
Manager/Director/Patron 1%
Specialist 8%
Technician 1%
White collar 3%
Services/Trade 4%
Blue collar 9%
OCCUPATION
Unqualified worker 8%
Farmer 3%
Student 4%
Retired (not working) 34%
Housewife 6%
Unemployed/Looking for a job 15%
Unemployed/Not looking for a job 3%
Other 1%
My salary or the income of enterprise or family farm 38%
BASIC SOURCES OF LIVELIHOOD
Chisinau 21%
TYPE