World Fertilizer Trends and Outlook To 2020

World
fertilizer
trends
and
outlook
to
SUMMARY REPORT
2020
World
fertilizer
trends
and
outlook
to
2020
SUMMARY REPORT
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS - Rome, 2017

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Contents
PREFACE v
TECHNICAL NOTES ON SUPPLY, DEMAND AND BALANCES vi
SUMMARY viii
THE WORLD FERTILIZER OUTLOOK 1

SUPPLY.................................................................................................................. 2
FERTILIZER DEMAND ........................................................................................... 3
SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCES ............................................................................. 4
ANNEXES
1. World and regional nitrogen supply, demand and balance 2015-2020
(thousand tonnes N)........................................................................................... 7
2. World and regional phosphate supply, demand and balance 2015-2020
(thousand tonnes P2O5).................................................................................... 11
3. World and regional potash supply, demand and balance 2015-2020
(thousand tonnes K2O)..................................................................................... 16
4. World and regional nitrogen fertilizer demand forecasts (thousand tonnes N)
and compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2015 to 2020................................ 20
5. World and regional phosphate fertilizer demand forecasts
(thousand tonnes P2O5) and compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
2015 to 2020................................................................................................... 21
6. World and regional potash fertilizer demand forecasts (thousand tonnes K2O)
and compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2015 to 2020................................ 22
7. Regional classification of countries and territories............................................. 23
iii
World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2020
Figures
Figure 1. Anticipated nutrient balances in 2020..................................................... 5
Tables
Table 1. Total world nutrient capacity of ammonia, phosphoric acid and

potash, 2015-2020 (thousand tonnes).................................................... 2
Table 2. World supply of ammonia, phosphoric acid and potash, 2015-2020
(thousand tonnes)................................................................................... 2
Table 3. World demand for non-fertilizer nutrient use, 2015-2020
(thousand tonnes)................................................................................... 3
Table 4. World demand for fertilizer nutrient use, 2015-2020
(thousand tonnes)................................................................................... 4
Table 5. Potential world balance of nitrogen, phosphate and potash,
2015-2020 (thousand tonnes)................................................................ 5
iv
The world fe rtilize r outlook
Preface
FAO, in collaboration with other members of the Fertilizer Outlook Expert
Group dealing with fertilizer production, consumption and trade, annually
provides five-year forecasts of world and regional nitrogen, phosphate and
potassium fertilizer supply, demand and potential balance.
The Fertilizer Outlook Expert Group comprises:

»» Fertiliser Association of India – FAI
»» International Fertilizer Association – IFA
»» International Fertilizer Development Center – IFDC
»» K+S KALI GmbH – K+S
»» The Fertilizer Institute – TFI
»» Fertilizers Europe
»» Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations – FAO
FAO and other members of the Fertilizer Outlook Expert Group met in June
2016 to review the medium-term supply and demand prospects for nitrogen,
phosphate and potassium fertilizer, and to prepare forecasts for the period
2016-2020, the results of which are presented in this report.
The contributions made by the members of the Fertilizer Outlook Expert
Group, and the preparation of the FAO baseline data by Simona Mosco, Javier
Montero-Serrano and Francesco Tubiello from the FAO Statistics Division,
are gratefully acknowledged. This final report was prepared by Debra Turner,
Plant Nutrition Officer FAO, under the supervision of Caterina Batello, Senior
Officer FAO, and overall direction of Hans Dryer, Director Plant Production
and Protection Division FAO.
The forecast data presented in this report are based on the expert views
of the different organizations participating in the June 2016 “FAO/Fertilizer
Outlook Expert Group” meeting. They are not necessarily consistent with the
FAOSTAT historical data series.
v
Technical notes on supply, demand

and balances
All references relating to fertilizers are in terms of the three primary plant
nutrients as follows:
»» nitrogen (N)
»» phosphorus (P), expressed as phosphate (P2O5)
»» potassium (K), expressed as potash (K2O)
The fertilizer demand and supply data refer to calendar years.
Definitions of the terms used are provided below:
Capacity:
nameplate capacity.
Supply:
effective capacity, representing the maximum achievable production. Supply is
computed from the “nameplate capacity” (theoretical capacity), multiplied by
the highest operating rate achieved in the previous 5 years. For new plants, a
ramp up of the operating rates was established for the first 3 years of operation,
ranging from 85 to 100 percent. Nameplate capacity operating rates and
demand for fertilizers vary from year to year. In the case of phosphate, the
supply data in this report are restricted to phosphoric acid (H3PO4).
Demand:
Fertilizer demand is the purchase of fertilizer at a given point in time. The
forecast is based on the views of the Fertilizer Outlook Expert Group.
Non-fertilizer demand is consumption for non-fertilizer use and is referred

to as industrial and other demand. Net non-fertilizer demand excludes the use
vi
of nutrients (N, P2O5 or K2O) that are recovered as by-product from industrial
processes and then used as fertilizer.
Phosphate fertilizer consumption/demand includes H3PO4-based fertilizer

demand and non-H3PO4 fertilizer demand. The non-H3PO4 fertilizer demand
includes P2O5 through single super phosphate, rock phosphate, etc.
Total demand is fertilizer demand + non-fertilizer demand.
Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is the is the mean annual growth
rate and calculated with the following formula:
1
number of years
End value
CAGR = -1
Start value
Potential balance:
is the difference between supply and total demand (fertilizer demand + non-
fertilizer demand). Regional balance is a medium-term indicator of potential
changes in fertilizer nutrient demand and supply in the region. Installed supply
capacity, operating rates and demand vary annually.
vi i
Summary
World consumption of the three main fertilizer nutrients, nitrogen (N),
phosphorus expressed as phosphate (P2O5), and potassium expressed as potash
(K2O), is estimated to reach 186.67 million tonnes (N, P2O5 and K2O) in 2016,
up by 1.4 percent over 2015 consumption levels. The demand for N, P 2O5,
and K2O is forecast to grow annually on average by 1.5, 2.2, and 2.4 percent
respectively from 2015 to 2020. Over the next five years, the global capacity of
the production of fertilizers, intermediates and raw materials is also expected
to increase.
v iii
The
world
fertilizer
outlook
1
SUPPLY
The global total nutrient capacity (N, P2O5 and K2O) was 285.15 million
tonnes in 2015 (Table 1), out of which the total supply was 245.77 million
tonnes (Table 2). During 2016, the total capacity is expected to increase by
3.7 percent and supply to grow by 1.7 percent. Over the following four years
to 2020 global capacity and production of fertilizers are expected to increase
further. Table 2 shows estimated world supply of ammonia (NH3), phosphoric
acid (H3PO4) and potash from 2015 to 2020. Detailed regional and sub-
regional information is provided in Annexes 1, 2 and 3.
Table 1. Total world nutrient capacity of ammonia, phosphoric acid and potash,
2015-2020 (thousand tonnes)
Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ammonia (NH3)
174 781 181 228 185 222 186 804 186 920 188 310
as N
Phosphoric acid
57 422 58 385 60 955 61 995 63 036 64 677
(H3PO4) as P2O5
Potash as K2O 52 942 55 974 58 111 61 576 62 136 64 486
Total (N+ P2O5+K2O) 285 145 295 587 304 287 310 374 312 092 317 474
Table 2. World supply of ammonia, phosphoric acid and potash, 2015-2020

(thousand tonnes)
Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ammonia (NH3)
154 773 158 850 166 402 168 987 169 693 170 761
as N
Phosphoric acid
47 424 48 394 49 558 51 190 52 361 53 078
(H3PO4) as P2O5
Potash as K2O 43 571 42 772 44 868 47 249 48 898 49 545
Total (N+ P2O5+K2O) 245 768 250 016 260 828 267 426 270 952 273 384
2
FERTILIZER DEMAND
Demand for non-fertilizer nutrient use
The global demand for non-fertilizer use of nutrients (N, P2O5 and K2O) for
2015, and the forecast for global demand for non-fertilizer use of nutrients
for 2016 to 2020 are summarized in Table 3. Total non-fertilizer nutrient use
demand was estimated to be 44.93 million tonnes in 2015 and is forecast to
reach 50.21 million tonnes by 2020.
The regional and sub-regional demand forecasts for nitrogen, phosphate
and potash for non-fertilizer use for 2015 to 2020 are presented in Annexes 1,
2 and 3.
Table 3. World demand for non-fertilizer nutrient use, 2015-2020 (thousand tonnes)
Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Nitrogen (N) 33 616 34 506 35 308 36 207 36 786 37 521
Phosphate (P2O5)
5 684 6 038 6 209 6 528 6 692 6 803
(H3PO4-based)
Potash (K2O) 5 626 5 524 5 586 5 654 5 720 5 886
Total 44 926 46 067 47 103 48 388 49 197 50 210
Demand for fertilizer nutrients
The global demand for fertilizer nutrients (N, P2O5 and K2O) for 2015 and
the demand forecast estimates for 2016 to 2020 are summarized in Table 4.
Total fertilizer nutrient demand was estimated to be 184.02 million tonnes in
2015 and is forecast to reach 186.67 million tonnes in 2016. With an average
annual growth of 1.9 percent in the following years, it is expected to reach
201.66 million tonnes by the end of 2020. The demand for N, P2O5, and K2O
is forecast to grow annually by 1.5, 2.2, and 2.4 percent respectively for the
individual nutrients from 2015 to 2020.
3
The world and regional demand forecasts for the three main plant nutrients
for 2015 to 2020 are presented in Annexes 1, 2 and 3, as well as in Annexes 4,
5 and 6 where compound annual growth rates (CAGR) are also provided.
Table 4. World demand for fertilizer nutrient use, 2015-2020 (thousand tonnes)
Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Nitrogen (N) 110 027 111 575 113 607 115 376 117 116 118 763
Phosphate (P2O5) 41 151 41 945 43 195 44 120 45 013 45 858
Potash (K2O) 32 838 33 149 34 048 34 894 35 978 37 042
Total (N+ P2O5+K2O) 184 017 186 668 190 850 194 390 198 107 201 663
SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCES
The potential balance of nitrogen, phosphate (H3PO4-based) and potash is
derived from the maximum achievable production (supply) minus the forecasts
for total demand as follows:
Potential balance = supply – (non-fertilizer demand + fertilizer demand)

where supply of each nutrient is referred to as:
»» N through ammonia (NH3)
»» P2O5 through phosphoric acid (H3PO4)
»» K2O through potash (K2O)
Unforeseen factors, such as feedstock and/or raw material limitations,

logistical problems, unscheduled shut down due to technical reasons, natural
calamities (earthquake, mine flooding, etc.) are not considered in the balance.
Demand forecasts are based on agronomic considerations (e.g. cropped area
and application rate of fertilizer), market feedback, estimates by industry
associations, growth models, econometric models and expert advice.
4
The potential world balance of nitrogen, phosphate and potash for the years
2015 to 2020 is presented in Table 5. Regional estimates are presented in
Annexes 1, 2 and 3. Figure 1 indicates the regional potential N, P2O5 and K2O
balance situation in 2020, the final year of the forecast period.
Table 5. Potential world balance of nitrogen, phosphate and potash, 2015-2020

(thousand tonnes)
Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Nitrogen (N) 11 130 12 769 17 487 17 404 15 792 14 477
Phosphate (P2O5)
4 105 3 984 3 769 4 193 4 349 4 142
(H3PO4-based)
Potash (K2O) 5 107 4 100 5 233 6 701 7 200 6 617
Total (N+ P2O5+K2O) 20 342 20 853 26 490 28 298 27 341 25 236
Figure 1. Anticipated nutrient balances in 2020
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The
Annexes
world
fertilizer
outlook
6
Annex 1
World and regional nitrogen supply, demand and
balance 2015-2020 (thousand tonnes N)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

WORLD
NH3 capacity 174 781 181 228 185 222 186 804 186 920 188 310
NH3 supply capability 154 773 158 850 166 402 168 987 169 693 170 761
N other uses 33 616 34 506 35 308 36 207 36 786 37 521
N available for fertilizers 121 157 124 344 131 094 132 780 132 907 133 240
N fertilizer demand 110 027 111 575 113 607 115 376 117 116 118 763
Potential N balance 11 130 12 769 17 487 17 404 15 792 14 477
AFRICA
NH3 capacity 8 310 9 545 10 739 10 700 10 700 11 000
N other uses 538 556 567 576 586 594
AMERICAS
NH3 capacity 24 301 27 618 28 688 29 304 29 320 29 346
N other uses 6 516 6 653 6 775 6 893 7 009 7 122
Potential N balance -7 489 -5 644 -5 327 -4 748 -5 082 -5 435
North America
NH3 capacity 14 315 17 611 17 758 18 375 18 375 18 400
N other uses 5 127 5 209 5 286 5 368 5 450 5 532
Table follows in the next page >>
7
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Latin America & Caribbean
NH3 capacity 9 986 10 007 10 930 10 930 10 946 10 946
N other uses 1 389 1 444 1 489 1 525 1 559 1 590
ASIA
NH3 capacity 99 959 101 188 101 703 101 734 101 734 102 799
N other uses 17 445 17 962 18 473 19 085 19 389 19 892
West Asia
NH3 capacity 14 537 15 655 16 550 16 033 16 033 16 033
N other uses 645 662 673 685 689 692
South Asia
NH3 capacity 17 507 18 365 18 365 18 378 18 378 18 900
N other uses 700 700 700 800 800 800
East Asia
NH3 capacity 67 915 67 169 66 789 67 324 67 324 67 866
N other uses 16 100 16 600 17 100 17 600 17 900 18 400
8
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

EUROPE
NH3 capacity 40 378 41 044 42 238 43 211 43 311 43 311
N other uses 8 207 8 364 8 489 8 632 8 758 8 847
Central Europe
NH3 capacity 6 686 6 762 6 817 6 902 6 902 6 902
N other uses 852 867 875 882 885 885
Potential N balance 1 138 1 055 1 019 976 935 882
West Europe
NH3 capacity 9 642 9 642 9 660 9 710 9 710 9 710
N other uses 5 132 5 239 5 323 5 414 5 493 5 537
East Europe and Central Asia
NH3 capacity 24 051 24 640 25 762 26 600 26 700 26 700
N other uses 2 223 2 258 2 291 2 336 2 380 2 425
9
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

OCEANIA
NH3 capacity 1 833 1 833 1 854 1 854 1 854 1 854
N other uses 910 971 1 004 1 021 1 044 1 066
N available for fertilizers 681 620 604 587 564 542
10
Annex 2
World and regional phosphate supply, demand and
balance 2015-2020 (thousand tonnes P2O5)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

WORLD
H3PO4 capacity 57 422 58 385 60 955 61 995 63 036 64 677
H3PO4 supply capability 47 424 48 394 49 558 51 190 52 361 53 078
H3PO4 industrial demand 5 684 6 038 6 209 6 528 6 692 6 803
H3PO4 available for
fertilizer 41 740 42 356 43 349 44 662 45 670 46 275
P fertilizer demand 41 151 41 945 43 195 44 120 45 013 45 858
H3PO4 fertilizer demand 37 635 38 372 39 579 40 469 41 320 42 133
Non-H3PO4 fertilizer
demand 3 517 3 572 3 615 3 651 3 693 3 725
Potential H3PO4 balance 4 105 3 984 3 769 4 193 4 349 4 142
AFRICA
H3PO4 capacity 9 138 10 038 10 488 10 548 11 394 12 939
H3PO4 industrial demand 501 542 564 586 587 588
H3PO4 available for
fertilizer 6 640 6 678 7 369 7 981 8 368 8 814
demand 42 43 45 46 47 48
AMERICAS
H3PO4 capacity 11 729 11 741 11 741 11 941 11 941 11 941
11
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

H3PO4 available for
fertilizer 8 399 8 367 8 345 8 404 8 402 8 470
demand 485 500 527 548 569 591
Potential H3PO4 balance -2 570 -2 823 -3 189 -3 428 -3 728 -3 948
North America
H3PO4 capacity 8 884 8 884 8 884 8 884 8 884 8 884
H3PO4 available for
fertilizer 7 029 7 029 7 028 7 028 7 027 7 026
demand - - - - - -
H3PO4 capacity 2 845 2 857 2 857 3 057 3 057 3 057
H3PO4 available for
fertilizer 1 370 1 338 1 316 1 376 1 375 1 444
demand 485 500 527 548 569 591
ASIA
H3PO4 capacity 29 895 29 946 32 066 32 846 33 041 33 137
12
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

H3PO4 available for
fertilizer 22 415 23 023 23 379 24 052 24 676 24 769
demand 1 985 2 025 2 051 2 069 2 087 2 104
West Asia
H3PO4 capacity 4 096 3 927 5 427 5 427 5 427 5 427
H3PO4 available for
fertilizer 2 794 2 862 3 011 3 529 3 978 3 977
P fertilizer demand 351 367 383 400 417 436
H3PO4 fertilizer demand 341 356 372 388 405 423
demand 10 11 11 12 12 13
South Asia
H3PO4 capacity 2 579 2 579 2 579 2 579 2 624 2 624
H3PO4 available for
fertilizer 1 658 1 662 1 651 1 646 1 675 1 667
demand 280 289 310 322 335 347
East Asia
H3PO4 capacity 23 220 23 440 24 060 24 840 24 990 25 086
13
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

H3PO4 available for
fertilizer 17 963 18 499 18 716 18 877 19 023 19 124
demand 1 695 1 725 1 731 1 735 1 740 1 745
EUROPE
H3PO4 capacity 6 060 6 060 6 060 6 060 6 060 6 060
H3PO4 industrial demand 939 947 979 1 010 1 011 1 012
H3PO4 available for
fertilizer 3 824 3 827 3 796 3 764 3 763 3 762
demand 654 649 634 623 620 608
Potential H3PO4 balance 451 342 213 119 63 2
Central Europe
H3PO4 capacity 704 704 704 704 704 704
H3PO4 supply capability 350 350 350 350 350 350
H3PO4 available for
fertilizer 248 248 247 247 246 246
P fertilizer demand 756 780 807 835 864 889
H3PO4 fertilizer demand 643 663 686 710 735 756
demand 113 117 121 125 129 133
Potential H3PO4 balance -395 -416 -439 -463 -488 -510
West Europe
H3PO4 capacity 565 565 565 565 565 565
14
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

H3PO4 available for
fertilizer -55 -44 -74 -104 -104 -103
demand 146 146 147 146 144 143
East Europe & Central Asia
H3PO4 capacity 4 791 4 791 4 791 4 791 4 791 4 791
H3PO4 available for
fertilizer 3 631 3 623 3 622 3 621 3 620 3 619
demand 395 387 366 353 346 332
OCEANIA
H3PO4 capacity 600 600 600 600 600 600
H3PO4 available for
fertilizer 461 461 461 460 460 460
H3PO4 fertilizer demand 954 964 974 991 1 006 1 016
demand 351 355 358 365 370 374
Potential H3PO4 balance -493 -503 -513 -531 -546 -556
15
Annex 3
World and regional potash supply, demand and
balance 2015-2020 (thousand tonnes K2O)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

WORLD
K2O capacity 52 942 55 974 58 111 61 576 62 136 64 486
K2O supply capability 43 571 42 772 44 868 47 249 48 898 49 545
Non-fertilizer K2O demand 5 626 5 524 5 586 5 654 5 720 5 886
K2O available for fertilizer 37 945 37 249 39 281 41 596 43 178 43 659
K2O fertilizer demand 32 838 33 149 34 048 34 894 35 978 37 042
Potential K2O balance 5 107 4 100 5 233 6 701 7 200 6 617
AFRICA
K2O capacity - - - - 300 300
K2O supply capability - - - - 15 -
Non-fertilizer K2O demand 100 100 100 100 100 100
K2O available for fertilizer -100 -100 -100 -100 - 85 -100
K2O fertilizer demand 647 662 708 765 838 897
Potential K2O balance -747 -762 -808 -865 -923 -997
AMERICAS
K2O capacity 22 305 25 185 25 225 25 780 25 780 25 780
North America
K2O capacity 20 180 23 060 23 100 23 655 23 655 23 655
16
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

K2O capacity 2 125 2 125 2 125 2 125 2 125 2 125
Potential K2O balance - 5 630 - 5 761 - 5 892 - 5 935 - 6 267 - 6 599
ASIA
K2O capacity 10 307 10 453 11 556 11 556 11 956 12 076
Potential K2O balance - 9 054 - 8 896 - 8 799 - 9 042 - 9 536 -10 127
West Asia
K2O capacity 3 995 3 995 4 030 4 030 4 050 4 080
South Asia
K2O capacity 65 65 65 65 65 65
K2O supply capability 16 33 49 49 49 49
K2O available for fertilizer -399 -331 -326 -340 -353 -363
17
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

East Asia
K2O capacity 6 247 6 393 7 461 7 461 7 841 7 931
EUROPE
K2O capacity 20 330 20 336 21 330 24 240 24 100 26 330
Central Europe
K2O capacity - - - - - -
K2O supply capability - - - - - -
West Europe
K2O capacity 5 630 4 946 4 940 4 840 4 840 4 640
Potential K2O balance 1 443 986 868 752 720 560
18
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

East Europe and Central Asia
K2O capacity 14 700 15 390 16 390 19 400 19 260 21 690
OCEANIA
K2O capacity - - - - - -
K2O supply capability - - - - - -
19
Annex 4
World and regional nitrogen fertilizer demand
forecasts (thousand tonnes N) and compound
annual growth rate (CAGR) 2015 to 2020
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 CAGR

(%)
WORLD 110 027 111 575 113 607 115 376 117 116 118 763 1.54
AFRICA 3 573 3 641 3 788 3 964 4 126 4 302 3.78

North Africa 1 835 1 870 1 929 1 984 2 042 2 102 2.75
Sub-Saharan
Africa 1 738 1 772 1 860 1 980 2 084 2 201 4.83
AMERICAS 22 506 23 030 23 379 23 768 24 169 24 564 1.77

North America 14 434 14 517 14 552 14 612 14 667 14 701 0.37
Latin America &
Caribbean 8 072 8 513 8 828 9 157 9 501 9 863 4.09
ASIA 66 294 67 082 68 446 69 493 70 525 71 476 1.52

West Asia 2 982 3 048 3 127 3 213 3 302 3 395 2.63
South Asia 22 273 22 525 23 430 24 002 24 645 25 191 2.49
East Asia 41 039 41 509 41 888 42 278 42 578 42 890 0.89
EUROPE 15 874 16 016 16 161 16 290 16 407 16 504 0.78

Central Europe 2 945 3 044 3 121 3 200 3 282 3 343 2.57
West Europe 8 448 8 370 8 315 8 236 8 139 8 038 -0.99
East Europe &
Central Asia 4 481 4 602 4 725 4 854 4 986 5 123 2.71
OCEANIA 1 779 1 806 1 833 1 861 1 888 1 917 1.50
20
Annex 5
World and regional phosphate fertilizer demand
forecasts (thousand tonnes P2O5) and compound
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 CAGR

(%)
WORLD 41 151 41 945 43 195 44 120 45 013 45 858 2.19
AFRICA 1 448 1 489 1 529 1 571 1 614 1 659 2.8

North Africa 633 642 653 664 675 686 1.6
Sub-Saharan
Africa 815 847 876 907 939 973 3.6
AMERICAS 11 454 11 690 12 060 12 380 12 700 13 009 2.6

North America 5 035 5 070 5 085 5 123 5 160 5 187 0.6
Latin America &
Caribbean 6 420 6 620 6 975 7 257 7 539 7 822 0.0
ASIA 22 918 23 312 24 056 24 544 25 005 25 432 2.1

West Asia 351 367 383 400 417 436 4.4
South Asia 8 165 8 435 9 025 9 383 9 760 10 107 4.4
East Asia 14 401 14 510 14 648 14 761 14 827 14 889 0.7
EUROPE 4 026 4 135 4 217 4 269 4 319 4 368 1.6

Central Europe 756 780 807 835 864 889 3.3
West Europe 1 855 1 863 1 878 1 861 1 839 1 818 -0.4
East Europe &
Central Asia 1 415 1 492 1 532 1 573 1 616 1 661 3.3
OCEANIA 1 305 1 319 1 332 1 356 1 376 1 390 1.3
21
Annex 6
World and regional potash fertilizer demand
forecasts (thousand tonnes K2O) and compound
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 CAGR

(%)
WORLD 32 838 33 149 34 048 34 894 35 978 37 042 2.44
AFRICA 647 662 708 765 838 897 6.76

North Africa 151 157 166 175 187 198 5.56
Sub-Saharan
Africa 495 505 542 590 650 698 7.11
AMERICAS 11 589 11 833 11 977 12 129 12 487 12 830 2.05

North America 4 856 4 916 4 929 4 951 4 978 4 989 0.54
Latin America &
Caribbean 6 733 6 917 7 048 7 178 7 510 7 841 0.00
ASIA 16 024 16 083 16 594 17 077 17 597 18 181 2.56

West Asia 260 276 291 308 326 347 5.91
South Asia 2 958 2 991 3 226 3 407 3 612 3 812 5.20
East Asia 12 805 12 817 13 076 13 362 13 659 14 023 1.83
EUROPE 4 187 4 193 4 390 4 539 4 669 4 741 2.52

Central Europe 650 650 700 750 780 800 4.24
West Europe 2 150 2 100 2 200 2 250 2 300 2 300 1.36
East Europe &
Central Asia 1 387 1 443 1 490 1 539 1 589 1 641 3.42
OCEANIA 392 378 379 385 388 393 0.05
22
Annex 7
Regional classification of countries and territories
AFRICA
North Africa Algeria

Egypt
Libya
Morocco
Sudan
Tunisia
Sub-Saharan Africa Angola

Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cameroon
Capo Verde
Central African Republic
Comoros
Congo Dem. Rep.
Congo Rep. of
Côte d’Ivoire
Djibouti
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Gabon
Gambia
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Kenya
Lesotho
Liberia
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Mauritius
Mozambique
23
Namibia
Niger
Nigeria
Rwanda
Senegal
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
Somalia
South Africa
South Sudan
Swaziland
Togo
Uganda
United Rep of Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
AMERICAS
Latin America & Caribbean Antigua and Barbuda

Argentina
Bahamas
Barbados
Belize
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Cuba
Dominica
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
El Salvador
Grenada
Guatemala
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Jamaica
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
24
Paraguay
Peru
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Saint Lucia
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Suriname
Trinidad & Tobago
Uruguay
Venezuela
North America Canada

United States of America
ASIA
East Asia Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia
China
China, Hong Kong SAR
China, Macao SAR
China, Taiwan Province of
Indonesia
Japan
Korea Rep
Lao People’s Democratic Republic
Malaysia
Mongolia
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Timor-Leste
Viet Nam
South Asia Bangladesh

Bhutan
India
Maldives
Nepal
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
West Asia Afghanistan

Bahrain
Cyprus
25
Iran Islamic Rep of

Iraq
Israel
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Syria Arab Rep.
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
EUROPE
Central Europe Albania

Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
Hungary
Macedonia
Montenegro
Poland
Romania
Serbia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Eastern Europe and Armenia

Central Asia Azerbaijan
Belarus
Estonia
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Latvia
Lithuania
Moldova
Russian Fed
Tajikistan
Ukraine
Uzbekistan
26
Western Europe Andorra

Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Malta
Monaco
Netherlands
Norway
Portugal
San Marino
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
OCEANIA
Australia
Cook Islands
Fiji
French Polynesia
Kiribati
Marshall Islands
Micronesia (Federated States of)
Nauru
Niue
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Palau
Papua New Guinea
Samoa
Tonga
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
27
World
fertilizer
trends
and
outlook
to
SUMMARY REPORT
2020
World
fertilizer
trends
and
outlook
to
2020
This report presents the world nitrogen, phosphate and potassium fertilizer
medium-term supply and demand projections for the period 2016-2020.
FAO, in collaboration with other members of the Fertilizer Outlook Expert
Group dealing with fertilizer production, consumption and trade, annually
provides five-year forecasts of world and regional fertilizer supply, demand
and potential balance.
I6895EN/1/03.17

World Fertilizer Trends and Outlook To 2020

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World

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS - Rome, 2017

TECHNICAL NOTES ON SUPPLY, DEMAND AND BALANCES vi

THE WORLD FERTILIZER OUTLOOK 1

Figure 1. Anticipated nutrient balances in 2020..................................................... 5

Table 1. Total world nutrient capacity of ammonia, phosphoric acid and

The Fertilizer Outlook Expert Group comprises:

Technical notes on supply, demand

The fertilizer demand and supply data refer to calendar years.

Definitions of the terms used are provided below:

Non-fertilizer demand is consumption for non-fertilizer use and is referred

Phosphate fertilizer consumption/demand includes H3PO4-based fertilizer

Total demand is fertilizer demand + non-fertilizer demand.

Potash as K2O 52 942 55 974 58 111 61 576 62 136 64 486

Table 2. World supply of ammonia, phosphoric acid and potash, 2015-2020

Potash as K2O 43 571 42 772 44 868 47 249 48 898 49 545

Nitrogen (N) 33 616 34 506 35 308 36 207 36 786 37 521

Potash (K2O) 5 626 5 524 5 586 5 654 5 720 5 886

Total 44 926 46 067 47 103 48 388 49 197 50 210

Demand for fertilizer nutrients

Phosphate (P2O5) 41 151 41 945 43 195 44 120 45 013 45 858

Potash (K2O) 32 838 33 149 34 048 34 894 35 978 37 042

Potential balance = supply – (non-fertilizer demand + fertilizer demand)

Unforeseen factors, such as feedstock and/or raw material limitations,

Table 5. Potential world balance of nitrogen, phosphate and potash, 2015-2020

Nitrogen (N) 11 130 12 769 17 487 17 404 15 792 14 477

Potash (K2O) 5 107 4 100 5 233 6 701 7 200 6 617

Total (N+ P2O5+K2O) 20 342 20 853 26 490 28 298 27 341 25 236

Figure 1. Anticipated nutrient balances in 2020

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Table follows in the next page >>

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Table follows in the next page >>

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Table follows in the next page >>

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Table follows in the next page >>

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Table follows in the next page >>

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Table follows in the next page >>

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Table follows in the next page >>

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Table follows in the next page >>

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 CAGR

AFRICA 3 573 3 641 3 788 3 964 4 126 4 302 3.78

AMERICAS 22 506 23 030 23 379 23 768 24 169 24 564 1.77

ASIA 66 294 67 082 68 446 69 493 70 525 71 476 1.52

EUROPE 15 874 16 016 16 161 16 290 16 407 16 504 0.78

OCEANIA 1 779 1 806 1 833 1 861 1 888 1 917 1.50

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 CAGR

AFRICA 1 448 1 489 1 529 1 571 1 614 1 659 2.8

AMERICAS 11 454 11 690 12 060 12 380 12 700 13 009 2.6