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    IIM Nagpur Test 1 Version 1 2016

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    Saksham Goyal
    This document contains the instructions and questions for a weekly assessment given to students. The assessment contains 3 questions related to probability, with multiple parts to each question. Students are instructed to show their work and provide justifications for full credit. They are allowed open notes and calculators, but mobile devices are prohibited. The questions cover topics like weather prediction probabilities, student exam score distributions, and insurance sales probabilities over time.

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    IIM Nagpur Test 1 Version 1 2016

    Uploaded by

    Saksham Goyal
    143 views6 pages
    This document contains the instructions and questions for a weekly assessment given to students. The assessment contains 3 questions related to probability, with multiple parts to each question. Students are instructed to show their work and provide justifications for full credit. They are allowed open notes and calculators, but mobile devices are prohibited. The questions cover topics like weather prediction probabilities, student exam score distributions, and insurance sales probabilities over time.

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    This document contains the instructions and questions for a weekly assessment given to students. The assessment contains 3 questions related to probability, with multiple parts to each question. Students are instructed to show their work and provide justifications for full credit. They are allowed open notes and calculators, but mobile devices are prohibited. The questions cover topics like weather prediction probabilities, student exam score distributions, and insurance sales probabilities over time.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    143 views6 pages

    IIM Nagpur Test 1 Version 1 2016

    Uploaded by

    Saksham Goyal
    This document contains the instructions and questions for a weekly assessment given to students. The assessment contains 3 questions related to probability, with multiple parts to each question. Students are instructed to show their work and provide justifications for full credit. They are allowed open notes and calculators, but mobile devices are prohibited. The questions cover topics like weather prediction probabilities, student exam score distributions, and insurance sales probabilities over time.

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    IIM Nagpur

    Analysis of Data 2016


    Weekly Assessment: Week 1
    Full Marks: 25
    Duration: 75 minutes
    Instructions:
    1. This paper contains 3 questions. Answer all questions for full credit.
    2. The assessment is open book and open notes. You can use any calculator or your laptop computer. Tablets/ mobiles
    are strictly prohibited.
    3. Answer only in the answer script in the space provided. You need to provide brief but clear justification for
    your answers for full credit.
    4. If you need more space, use the blank page at the end.
    Questions:
    1. Suppose daily rainfall is classifiable in the following three classes: “Trace” if the rainfall is at most 2mm,
    “Moderate” if the rainfall is between 2 to 10mm, and “Heavy” if it is at least 10mm.

    It is known that in Nagpur on 60% of the days the rainfall is trace, on 30% of the days the rainfall is moderate and
    the rest of the times there is heavy rainfall.
    An experienced weatherman predicts daily rainfall 24 hours in advance. When the rainfall is actually trace, he would
    have predicted it accurately 80% of the times, the rest of the times he would have predicted moderate rainfall. When
    the rainfall is actually heavy, he predicts it correctly 90% of the times, again predicting moderate rainfall otherwise.
    He is much more erratic when there is moderate rainfall: he predicts it correctly 50% of the times, but predicts trace
    rainfall 30% of the times and heavy rainfall 20% of the times.

    a) [2 Marks] With brief justification, indicate whether the predicted rainfall (classes) are independent of the actual
    rainfalls.
    b) [2 Marks] What is the probability that the weatherman predicts heavy rainfall?

    c) [2 Marks] What is the probability that given that the weatherman has predicted more than 2mm rainfall, the
    rainfall is less than 10mm?
    d) [2 Marks] What is the probability that the weatherman predicts the rainfall (class) accurately?

    e) [2 Marks] What is the probability of trace rainfall given that the weatherman has failed to predict the rainfall
    (class) accurately?
    2. Suppose that a PGP batch at an IIM has 5 sections of 80 students each. For each of the sections, the CAT percentile
    scores of the students are distributed approximately normally with mean 98.0 and variance 0.64.
    a) [2 Marks] What is the probability that a randomly chosen student from one particular section, say Section E, is a
    99th percentiler, i.e. has a percentile score of 99 or above?

    b) [1 Mark] What is the expected number of 99th percentilers in that entire PGP cohort of 400?

    c) [3 Marks] Suppose that the placement committee contains one student from each PGP section, selected randomly
    from their respective sections. What is the probability that at least 2 of the 5 students so chosen are 99th percentilers?
    3. An insurance salesman meets with 5 prospective customers each week. From historical data, the proportion of
    these customers who take out a policy is 15%.
    a) [2 Marks] What is the probability that the salesman will sell 1 or more policies in a given week?

    b) [3 Marks] What is the probability that the salesman will sell 2 or more policies in 2 weeks?

    c) [4 Marks] Using the central limit theorem, compute the approximate probability that the salesman will sell at
    least 50 policies in a year. Assume 1 year = 52 weeks.

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