Pipeline - Route - Determination - GN - e-Aug16-New Logo PDF
Pipeline - Route - Determination - GN - e-Aug16-New Logo PDF
Pipeline - Route - Determination - GN - e-Aug16-New Logo PDF
GUIDANCE NOTES ON
AUGUST 2016
Foreword
The ABS Classification of a subsea pipeline system requires review of data and analysis results concerning
conditions along the selected route of the pipeline. Prior to the final selection of the route and detailed design
of the pipeline system, different routes will be considered and assessed. A method for route determination
is presented in these Guidance Notes where candidate routes are selected and assessed. The method relies
on the use of available Geographic Information System (GIS) technology and risk assessment techniques.
An example of the method’s application is provided.
The ABS Guide for Building and Classing Subsea Pipeline Systems is the controlling standard for the ABS
Classification of such a system. The process of pipeline route determination is not in the scope of ABS’
Classification of a pipeline system. However, the contents of these Guidance Notes provide a suggested
approach to this topic that should be beneficial to readers.
It is acknowledged that methods of survey data collection and interpretation, data assessment and routing
techniques, and risk assessment are constantly evolving. Improvements in these subjects are encouraged,
and the publication of these Guidance Notes is not to inhibit the use of applicable, proven technology.
These Guidance Notes become effective on the first day of the month of publication.
Users are advised to check periodically on the ABS website www.eagle.org to verify that this version of
these Guidance Notes is the most current.
We welcome your feedback. Comments or suggestions can be sent electronically by email to [email protected].
Terms of Use
The information presented herein is intended solely to assist the reader in the methodologies and/or techniques
discussed. These Guidance Notes do not and cannot replace the analysis and/or advice of a qualified
professional. It is the responsibility of the reader to perform their own assessment and obtain professional
advice. Information contained herein is considered to be pertinent at the time of publication, but may be
invalidated as a result of subsequent legislations, regulations, standards, methods, and/or more updated
information and the reader assumes full responsibility for compliance. This publication may not be copied
or redistributed in part or in whole without prior written consent from ABS.
GUIDANCE NOTES ON
1 Introduction
These Guidance Notes are developed to support the selection of subsea pipeline routes by systematically
evaluating geological, geotechnical, ecological, and cultural factors that determine pipeline route suitability
and assessing the risks of pipeline route selection.
The procedures to determine a pipeline route in these Guidance Notes are built upon the important concept
using a geocost map, which is established on a project basis to reflect the quantified geo risks
corresponding to geometric and geologic hazards. Favorite route can be determined by selecting a path
which causes the least accumulated geocost.
FIGURE 1
Pipeline Route Determination Flowchart
The data and documents listed above are those required for route determination. In the case of routes that have
been determined, a route determination report describing the procedures used and a risk assessment report
are also expected.
TABLE 1
Geophysical Survey Types
Typical Typical
Survey Type Uses Features Identified Horizontal Vertical Advantages Limitations
Resolution Resolution
Identifying Faults, landslides, mass
stratigraphy and transport deposits, fluid Regional
Lower
structural, regional expulsion features, coverage and
10 m to 10’s to 100’s resolutions
3-D Seismic bathymetry, channel systems, buried regional
25 m of meters compared to
exploration for structure (faults and geologic
other surveys
hydrocarbon folds), buried stratigraphy, interpretation
reservoirs buried gas/hydrate
Provides higher
Shallow seafloor features,
resolution than Time
HR or UHR High resolution of buried structures, buried
3-D seismic to consuming and
2-D seismic stratigraphy and structure (faults and N/A 2 m to 4 m
resolve costly to cover
reflection structure folds), buried stratigraphy,
subsurface a large area
buried gas/hydrate
conditions
Provides higher
Manmade objects, faults, resolution than
Identify near- 10’s of Features may
Sub-Bottom fluid expulsion features, 2-D and 3-D
seabed shallow centimeters not be detected
Profiler shallow buried structure N/A seismic to
stratigraphic and to 10’s of depending on
(SBP) (faults and folds), shallow resolve shallow
structural horizons meters line spacing
buried stratigraphy subsurface
conditions
Resolution
High resolution
decreases with
bathymetry, Faults, landslides, mass
Provides high water depth
Multibeam backscatter transport deposits, fluid
0.1 m to resolution depending on
Echosounder (intensity showing expulsion features, N/A
15 m imagery of the sensor height
(MBES) hard or soft channel systems at the
seafloor (e.g., hull-
material), water seafloor
mounted
column data
versus AUV)
May not
Detection of
Provides high resolve
manmade objects, Manmade objects, faults, centimeters
Side Scan resolution features on
assess harder fluid expulsion features, to N/A
Sonar imagery of steep slopes
material versus hardground decimeters
seafloor objects due to data
softer material
shadows
FIGURE 2
Geophysical Survey Data Resolution Comparison
FIGURE 3
AUV SBP, 3-D Seismic, and 2-D UHR Data Resolution Comparison
In situ testing using a cone penetrometer (CPT) allows determination of key soil parameters such
as undisturbed soil strengths and the soil relative density, and help classify the soils along a considered
pipeline route. A piezocone penetration test (PCPT) can also measure excess pore pressure ahead
of the cone, which is useful for determining the drainage properties of the soil. Cyclic ‘full flow’
penetrometer testing that uses larger instruments such as T-bars and ball-shaped tools allow for the
assessment of strength degradation, which is useful for assessing pipe-soil interaction forces for
use in pipeline design, but also for foundation design of related seabed infrastructure.
3.5.2 Geological Cores
Geological cores can provide information about the geological history along a potential pipeline route,
for example the age, frequency, and types of depositional events such as mass transport events and
turbidity flows; the geological nature of sediments comprising the cored interval; and the existence
of geologic hazards that were identified from previous geophysical surveys. Interpretation of geological
events from the sedimentary record is specialist work that requires trained and experienced
geoscientists; it should not be confused with basic sediment or soil type descriptions obtained from
geotechnical testing programs. Samples can be obtained for age dating techniques such as radiocarbon
(14C), micropaleontological, or other kinds of absolute dating methods in order to establish the
frequency or recurrence intervals of dated events. Establishment of temporal frequencies or recurrence
intervals relies on continuous undisturbed cores. Piston cores taken for geohazard logging should
be paired with box cores so that the surface material is preserved which is of greatest interest.
5 Hazard Identification
5.1 Geohazards
A geohazard can be an active geological event such as a landslide or movement along a fault, or a passive
geologic attribute such as seafloor roughness (as caused by boulders or sediment waves) that can lead to
damage of subsea infrastructure or make construction difficult.
Shallow water and deepwater marine geohazards can be identified using geophysical surveys and knowledge
about them can be refined using geological and/or geotechnical cores. The distribution of geohazards varies
throughout the world depending on the general and local geological and tectonic setting. Section 1, Figure 4
illustrates a variety of geologically-related hazards (geometric geohazards or geologic geohazards) and
geohazard triggers relevant to subsea pipelines. Geometric geohazards are those that can be identified on
the basis of calculations alone, for example slope angle or seafloor roughness. Geologic geohazards are
modern or past processes such as slope failures, fluid expulsion, or gravity driven sediment flows; they
generally cannot be identified on the basis of calculations alone, but instead require interpretation of a
variety of geological data describing the nature of the seafloor and underlying strata.
5.1.1 Geohazard Triggers
Section 1, Figure 4 schematically shows geohazard triggers such as earthquakes, hurricane winds,
tsunamis, and bottom currents. Natural events such as earthquakes are impossible to accurately predict
and are usually analyzed as random processes with annual probabilities of occurrence. Hurricane
prediction and trajectory are better understood today than in the past. However, warnings will not
help to prevent damage to existing seafloor facilities that are in the path of the hurricane. Thus,
historical records of hurricane occurrence must be used to estimate possible future events. Tsunamis
are large, fast moving waves that result from earthquakes or landslides. Tsunamis can potentially
lead to damage of a pipeline due to wave impact or currents. General metocean effects such as bottom
currents can cause sediment mobility resulting in areas of scour on the seafloor.
5.1.2 Geometric Geohazards
Seafloor conditions can be assessed using geometric geohazards (Section 1, Figure 4). In the absence
of a comprehensive geological assessment, geohazards that can be identified by calculating attributes
from a digital elevation model (DEM) of the seafloor are considered geometric hazards (Section 1,
Figure 5). These include seafloor slope (the first derivative of the digital elevation model), seafloor
curvature (various formulations exist, but they are in general expressions of the second derivative
of the seafloor), or seafloor roughness (also known as rugosity, and a measure of the local variability
of the seafloor).
Section 1, Figure 5 provides some examples of geometric geohazards such as seafloor curvature
[Figure 5(a)], seafloor roughness [Figure 5(b)], and seafloor slope [Figure 5(c)]. The colors on each
example represent the variability of the geometric hazard across the study area. Areas in blue are
considered less severe compared to areas in red which are more severe.
Seafloor roughness can be quantified using a variety of measures, each of which has advantages and
disadvantages. Seafloor roughness is the variability of a topographic surface at a given scale and an
example [shown below in Section 1, Figure 5(b)] can be calculated from the moving window
standard deviation of the residual bathymetry. The residual bathymetry is derived from subtracting
a geometrically smoothed (averaged) bathymetry from the original bathymetry. Low values of seafloor
roughness correspond to areas of gentle sloping seafloor, whereas high values of seafloor roughness
correspond to areas of erosion, buried mass transport deposits, sediment waves, or landslides.
Steep seafloor slopes [Section 1, Figure 5(c)] can indicate features such as areas prone to slope failure,
seafloor undulations (e.g., sediment waves, buried landslides), edges of erosional channels, and
seafloor mounds.
FIGURE 4
Geohazard Examples*
*Figure 4 modeled after: Thomas et al., 2010, Nadim and Kvalstad, 2007, and Chiocci et al., 2011.
FIGURE 5
Example Geometric Geohazards
FIGURE 6
Mass Transport Deposits
FIGURE 7
Sediment Transport Pathways
FIGURE 8
Erosion and Deposition
v) Tectonic Effects
a) Dynamic: Active tectonic processes can lead to earthquakes, liquefaction on the
seafloor, strain softening of sediments, and long term excess pore pressures. Salt
upwelling (known as diapirism) is common in some sedimentary basins such as
the Gulf of Mexico. Salt is more buoyant than the overlying sediments and can
move upward to create domes and ridges on the seafloor [Section 1, Figure 9(a)],
or outwards and can withdraw leaving behind significant basins. Salt tectonic activity
is, in many ways, different to regional plate tectonics; it is governed more by the
effects of regional slope, vertical loading (in response to fluctuating sediment input),
and the nature of the original salt deposit. Uplift zones associated with ongoing
tectonic activity are dynamic geohazards because they may create conditions
conducive to chronic large-scale slope failure. Many tectonically active basins
(e.g., along the Banda Arc) feature recurrent, small landslides. Whereas passive
margins slopes may have low angle slopes, slow rates of sediment accumulation,
limited tectonic modification (if any), yet they feature some of the largest mass
movements on Earth (e.g., Storegga, Norway, or the northwest African margin).
• Effect on Pipeline: Earthquake activity can liquefy the seafloor, leading to
pipeline displacement, free-spans, possible rupture, and overstressing of
connections to other infrastructure. Areas with active salt movement can
have steep slopes prone to landslides that can result in burial, compression,
or rupture to the pipeline.
FIGURE 9
Tectonic Effects
vi) Faults
a) Dynamic: Faults form in environments such as subsiding basins or areas of uplift
associated with salt diapirism. Faults can be normal, reverse, growth, strike-slip,
or polygonal or a combination of any of these. Normal faults [Section 1, Figure
10(a) and 10(b)] form when a large mass (hanging wall) moves downward relative
to another mass (footwall) along a fault plane, and are most common in areas
undergoing uplift or regional extension. Reverse faults form when the hanging
wall moves upwards relative to the footwall and tend to be common in regional
fold belts. Strike-slip faults have only horizontal movement along the fault plane.
Polygonal faults can form as a result of sediment compaction and dewatering.
Different criteria may exist for what is considered a dynamic or active fault. The
California Department of Conservation and California Geological Survey (CGS)
considers a fault active when it has had recent geological movement, for example,
evidence of movement within the Holocene (< 11,000 years before present) (CGS,
2007) or potentially active if there was any surface displacement during the
Quaternary (< 1.6 million years). With the absence of age-dating to verify the last
movement or recurrence interval on a fault, other indications such as the offset of
the hemipelagic drape or faults that extend to the seafloor [Section 1, Figure 10(a)]
may be considered active. These faults require additional investigations to establish
their date of last movement, average slip rate, and likelihood of movement during
the life of a pipeline. If such investigations cannot be undertaken prior to pipeline
route determination, faults cutting the seafloor should be considered active.
• Effect on Pipeline: A pipeline that is laid across a fault may be susceptible to
pipeline free-spans, stretching, displacement, or rupture if there is any significant
movement along the fault during the life of a pipeline. The distinction between
normal and reverse faults is important because normal fault movement will
stretch a pipeline built over a fault scarp whereas reverse fault movement
will shorten or buckle a pipeline built over a fault scarp. The can also affect
the stability and integrity of any structure connected to the pipeline.
b) Static: A fault with no recent geological movement (> 1.6 million years before
present) is considered an inactive fault [Section 1, Figure 10(b)]. Typically these
faults have been significantly buried by younger sediments and have no direct
impact on a pipeline, however may have had an impact on the current topography
of the seafloor.
• Effect on Pipeline: A pipeline that is laid across an area where an inactive
fault has previously shaped the seafloor, such as along steep fault scarps,
may be susceptible to pipeline free-spans.
FIGURE 10
Faults
It is also important to consider the potential corrosive effects, variable soil conditions
(e.g., hardgrounds or soft gassy soils), and environmental issues (e.g., chemosynthetic
communities that may be protected by law) of active expulsion areas.
• Effect on Pipeline: In addition to the possibility of future fluid expulsion,
seafloor expulsion features such as pockmarks may cause vertically, laterally,
and temporally variable soil strength, which might create difficulties for the
installation of pipelines. Pipeline free-spans may result from the steep sides
associated with fluid expulsion features. Hardgrounds may lead to abrasion
or differential embedment on the pipeline if the pipeline walks or laterally
buckles during the lifetime of development. Surficial crusts can also impact
the pipe-soil resistance used in lateral buckling analysis.
b) Static: Features created by past expulsion of gas, fluid, or sediment onto the seafloor
include mounds, craters, or depressions [Section 1, Figure 11(b)]. These remnant
expulsion features lead to irregular seafloor, steep-sided mounds, and steep-sided
depressions. Areas with fossil chemosynthetic communities may have resultant
hardground with variable geotechnical properties.
• Effect on Pipeline: Remnant expulsion features that have no evidence of
current activity may cause problems such as pipeline free-spans. Hardgrounds
may lead to abrasion or differential embedment on the pipeline if the pipeline
walks or laterally buckles during the lifetime of development.
FIGURE 11
Expulsion Features
FIGURE 12
Volcanic Activity
FIGURE 13
Sea Ice
FIGURE 14
Anthropogenic-Generated Slope Failure
TABLE 2
Potential Pipeline Geohazards and Manmade Hazards and Response to Their Effect
Hazards Effect on Pipeline Response
Geohazards (Dynamic and Static)
Shallow water Susceptible to near-shore oceanic conditions and
Trench or bury pipelines
anthropogenic activities in shallow water
Deepwater High pressures, lack of visibility, difficult environment in
Avoid deepwater routes if possible
deep water
Seafloor curvature Development of pipeline free spans. Avoid or mitigate for curved seafloor
Seafloor roughness Development of pipeline free spans. Avoid or mitigate for rough seafloor
Seafloor slope Development of pipeline free spans, pipeline stretching. Avoid or mitigate for steep slopes
Burial, compression, pipeline displacement, pipeline- Avoid areas of known mass transport
structure connection overstress, stretching, rupture, scour, deposits and mitigate for rough
Mass transport deposits development of pipeline free spans. terrain
Burial, compression, pipeline displacement, pipeline- Avoid sediment transport pathways
structure connection overstress, rupture, scour, or mitigate to cross pathways at an
Sediment transport pathways development of pipeline free spans. optimal angle
Burial, pipeline displacement, pipeline-structure
Avoid or mitigate. Metocean
connection overstress, rupture, scour, development of
monitoring and modeling is required.
Sediment erosion/deposition pipeline free spans.
Burial, compression, pipeline displacement, pipeline-
structure connection overstress, rupture, scour, Avoid or mitigate
Tectonic Effects development of pipeline free spans.
Pipeline displacement, pipeline-structure connection
Avoid or mitigate to cross faults at
overstress, stretching, rupture, development of pipeline
an optimal angle
Faults free spans.
Pipeline displacement, pipeline-structure connection
Avoid or mitigate
Fluid expulsion features overstress, development of pipeline free spans.
Burial, compression, rupture, pipeline displacement,
pipeline-structure connection overstress, development of Avoid areas with active volcanism
Volcanic activity pipeline free spans.
Avoid areas with frequent ice or bury
Scouring, rupture, development of pipeline free spans. pipeline to appropriate depth below
Sea Ice potential gouge
Manmade Hazards
Military debris
Avoid by specific distance criteria
(e.g., unexploded ordnance) Pipeline displacement, rupture
Development of pipeline free spans, pipeline
Avoid by specific distance criteria
Industrial debris displacement, rupture
Marine industries Pipeline displacement, rupture Avoid by specific distance criteria
Subsea infrastructure Development of pipeline free spans, rupture Avoid by specific distance criteria
TABLE 1
Descriptions for Geocosts
Geocost* Hazard Level Geohazard Example – Landslide Deposit Mitigation
Smooth surface, inferred to be geologically very Avoidance unnecessary. Possible
1 Negligible old, radiometric age dates suggest no geologically to mitigate using engineering
recent movement. solutions if necessary.
2 Mitigation using engineering
Smooth surface, inferred to be geologically old, no solutions depends on site specific
3 Low Hazard
radiometric data available. details, avoidance should be
4 considered but not necessary.
5
Rough surface, inferred to be geologically young, Mitigation using engineering
6 Moderate Hazard geological evidence (seafloor fractures) suggests solutions depends on site specific
movement in the past 11,000 years. details, avoidance recommended
7
8 Rough surface, inferred to be geologically very
young, radiometric age dating suggest evidence of
9 Mitigation is not practical –
High Hazard geologically recent movement, geological
avoidance strongly recommended
evidence of recent movement (numerous seafloor
10 fractures).
Geological evidence suggests frequent occurrence Mitigation not applicable -
N/A Impermissible Zone
of landslides, area deemed to be impassable. complete avoidance
* Note: The allocation of geocosts is dependent on the specific site details and the experience and preference of the project team
assessing the geohazards. The geocost values used in this example (1 to 10) are arbitrary. However, all assessed geohazards
must comply with a consistent numerical assignment. The assignment of numerical geocosts to specific geohazards is
based upon the size or potential severity, likelihood of future occurrence, and geological age of the hazards as they may
impact the performance or safety of a pipeline.
Geohazards can be classified by assigning geocosts based on the severity of the impact to the pipeline. For
example, development of pipeline free-spans as a consequence of an irregular seafloor is not as hazardous
as a debris flow or landslide that could impact and rupture the pipeline. Therefore, the irregular seafloor will
have a lower geocost compared to an area with known past occurrences of potentially damaging subsea
landslides. The likelihood of occurrence and magnitudes of events, both important elements of hazard
assessment, should be incorporated into the weighting scheme to the extent possible.
Cultural or ecological considerations should likewise be classified based on their degree of sensitivity. Areas
designated as restricted can be completely omitted from the routing analysis, such that no routes are permitted
through those areas. Areas across which passage is strictly forbidden can be assigned an effectively infinitely
high cost by assigning Null or No Data values in GIS maps, thus completely eliminating them from
consideration.
Section 2, Table 2 shows some typical geocosts used in a deepwater pipeline routing project, sorted by
geohazard type then severity of impact to the pipeline. The listed costs consider a scale from 1 to 10 for all
geohazards. Hence, additional proportional weighting can be used to differentiate between each geohazard.
TABLE 2
Examples of Typical Geocosts for Subsea Geohazards
Geohazards Geocost
Seafloor Slope 0° to 3° 1
Seafloor Slope 3° to 5° 2
Seafloor Slope 5° to 10° 4
Seafloor Slope 10° to 15° 8
Seafloor Slope 15°+ 10
Older Seafloor Scours 3
Older Sediment Wave Area 3
Young Mass Transport Deposit 10
Large Landslide Deposit 10
Seafloor Fault 10
Active Fluid Expulsion Feature 10
Active Seafloor Channel 10
FIGURE 1
Composite Geocost Map Premise
Section 2, Figure 2 illustrates how multiple weighted individual geocost component maps are added together
to create a composite geocost map. Implicit in the method is the assumption that the distribution of values
across the composite geocost surface is proportional to the combined costs of characterizing, designing,
building, operating, and maintaining the pipeline being routed. The composite geocost map is the fundamental
input for least-geocost path determination of optimal pipeline routes; however, it can be used to evaluate
pipeline routes that have been selected by manual approaches as well.
FIGURE 2
Composite Geocost Map
5 Route Selection
There are three acceptable methods to identify and select potential routes once the relevant geohazards in
the project area have been mapped and classified, and once a geocost composite surface has been generated:
i) Using manual route selection guided by a composite cost surface
ii) Using least-geocost path route optimization based upon one or multiple composite cost surfaces
iii) Using stochastic simulation
FIGURE 3
Least-Geocost Path Pipeline Routing
FIGURE 4
Stochastic Simulations
TABLE 3
Ranges of Sample Points Recommended for
Stochastic Simulation of Cost Surface Uncertainties
Characteristic Recommended Number of Sample Points per
Length of Seafloor Square Kilometer
Features (m) Minimum Maximum
500 16 400
1000 4 100
1500 0.64 16
5000 0.16 4
The geocosts and locations of the sample points are then used as input for conditional simulation of the
cost surface, which can be accomplished using GIS or other widely available geostatistical simulation
software. After values at the chosen number of random points are sampled, a large number (100 or more)
of equally probable versions of the cost surface are generated using conditional simulation, and a least-
geocost path route is calculated for each version. The result is a cloud of possible routes, the dispersion of
which reflects the sensitivity of the routing process to changes in the input geocost map. The width of the
cloud of routes can then be used to define a corridor for additional data collection and route refinement. In
a typical application, the first attempt at routing might be based upon a 3-D seismic-derived seafloor
surface with 15 m to 20 m cell size, and stochastic simulation might be used to determine a corridor for
subsequent and more detailed AUV data collection using a 2 m or 3 m cell size, allowing the route to be
evaluated in more detail and with more confidence.
7 Route Evaluation
Route evaluation is to verify that the selected route meets all applicable criteria. It is possible that the
output from least-geocost path routing, for example, may not satisfy requirements that the route crosses
faults or slopes at the required angles or passes too close to runout zones for debris flows. In such a case, a
decision is made to either refine the route using existing data or to collect additional, more resolute or
detailed, data. Route evaluation can also include a risk assessment. Route evaluation should be performed
by the same multidisciplinary project team that performed the initial geocost assignments, with additional
input from project managers and risk assessment professionals. If all applicable criteria are satisfied, then
the process can move on to risk assessment without further iteration.
1 Principles
Risk assessment is an essential element of the route determination and acceptance process. The methods
described in these Guidance Notes are intended to reduce, but cannot completely eliminate, hazards along
pipeline route. As long as hazards exist, there will also be potential consequences that lead to risks for the
project Owner, the public, and the environment. This includes events for which there may not be current
evidence in the project area or which may originate far beyond the project area, or unpredictable human
activities like accidents or terrorism. Moreover, there may be different thresholds for the risks that various
stakeholders are willing to accept on different projects.
Risk has historically been defined as a function of 1) the likelihood of an occurrence (e.g., the hazard) and
2) the losses anticipated upon occurrence (e.g., the consequence). Some practitioners explicitly separate the
vulnerability of the asset at risk from the consequences and consider it a third variable, but the underlying
principle remains unchanged. ISO 31000 proposed a significantly different and more abstract definition of
risk – the effect of uncertainty on the attainment of an objective - with the purpose of including positive as
well as negative aspects of the problem. These Guidance Notes use the more traditional definition of risk.
Although a variety of geohazards as well as ecological and cultural constraints are incorporated into pipeline
route selection as described in these Guidance Notes, ecological and cultural constraints will typically not
be included in risk assessment (although, as described below, the potential for environmental and social
damage as a consequence of geohazards is incorporated). This is because ecological and cultural constraints
such as a shipwreck or protected benthic community do not present the potential for unacceptable consequences
such as pipeline rupture, loss of containment, injury, or loss of life as long as they are recognized and
avoided during the route selection. If known ecological or cultural constraints cannot be avoided by the
route, then they should also be considered as hazards and the attendant risks evaluated.
Section 3, Figure 1 illustrates the steps required to conduct a risk assessment discussed in 3/1.1 and 3/1.3.
As is the case for the classification and weighting of component hazard maps, risk assessment is best performed
collaboratively by a multi-disciplinary team that includes expertise in marine engineering geology, geotechnical
engineering, pipeline engineering, marine ecology, marine archeology, health/safety/environmental (HSE)
compliance, and project management. On large or complicated projects, this may be best accomplished in a
professionally facilitated workshop with experienced professionals to guide the discussion and verify that
all requirements of the risk assessment process are met.
FIGURE 1
Risk Assessment Flowchart
One of the unique challenges of geohazard and georisk assessment compared to other kinds of risk assessment
is that geologic information is almost always fragmentary and subject to considerable uncertainty. Thus,
even in the most comprehensive of integrated subsea site investigations it will likely be impossible to precisely
define an annual probability of occurrence of hazards such as subsea landslides, let alone secondary attributes
such as runout distance, velocity, and, ultimately, the impact force if a pipeline is impacted by a landslide.
In many projects, annual likelihoods for entire classes of geohazards may be quantifiable only within one
or two orders of magnitude.
TABLE 1
Example Risk Matrix
Risk Likelihood
Very
Rare Unlikely Possible Occasionally Likely
Unlikely
Has not Has occurred Has occurred Likely to occur Likely to occur Likely to occur
occurred in in the on a similar in 10% of 1-2 times on repeatedly on
the industry industry project similar projects this project this project
-5 -5 -4 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1
< 10 /yr 10 - 10 /yr 10 - 10 /yr 10 - 10 /yr 10 - 10 /yr > 10 /yr
Catastrophic
Severe
Risk Consequence
Major
Moderate
Minor
Negligible
TABLE 2
Example Risk Levels for Health and Safety, Environmental, Social, and Financial
Consequences
Financial Other
Health and Safety Environmental Social
(millions of US $)
Long term damages Public outrage,
> 10 fatalities or > 100
(> 10 year recovery) sustained international
hospitalizations
Catastrophic or no potential for news coverage, little > 1000
(workers and
recovery to pre- chance of community
community)
incident state. recovery.
Medium term damages
2 – 9 fatalities or 50 – Local public outrage,
(3 – 10 year recovery)
100 hospitalizations national news
Severe or degradation of 100 - 1000
(workers and coverage, 1-10 year
economic or
community) community recovery
conservation value.
1 fatality or multiple Short term damages
Regional to national
disabilities or < 50 (1 – 3 year recovery)
news coverage, public
Major hospitalizations and no degradation of 10 - 100
opposition, < 1 year
(workers and economic or
community recovery.
community) conservation value.
Detectable effects Local to regional news
1 disability or multiple
beyond incident coverage, little to no
cases of short-term
Moderate location but no public opposition, 1-12 1 -10
health effects (workers
environmental damage month community
and community)
(< 1 year recovery). recovery.
Limited local news
Effects detectable only
1 case of short-term coverage, minor
at incident location
Minor health effects or inconvenience to most 0.1 - 1
with cleanup in days to
multiple first-aid cases people, < 1 month
weeks.
community recovery.
No news coverage,
very minor
Single case requiring
Negligible No effects. inconvenience to most < 0.1
first-aid.
people, no community
impact.
FIGURE 1
Pipeline Route Determination Flowchart
The case study area is located 100 km offshore in a geologically complicated area with water depths ranging
from about 1000 m to 1600 m. The goal is to select a subsea pipeline route between two manifolds
representing the pipeline termini (Appendix 2, Figure 2).
The procedures discussed below will use ArcGIS to support geohazard identification, mapping, and pipeline
route determination. Previous experience with ArcGIS or other GIS software is strongly recommended.
FIGURE 2
Study Area and Manifold Termini
Step 1 Collect and evaluate available geological, geophysical, geotechnical, and metocean
data
In most cases, collection, evaluation, and interpretation of geological, geophysical, and metocean data requires
the use of data from specialty contractors and consultants. Data available (Appendix 2, Figure 3) for this
case study include:
• 3-D seismic volume (with extracted bathymetric surface for import into ArcGIS)
• 6 geological cores
• Metocean measurements
FIGURE 3
Available Data
The 3-D seismic data have a bin spacing of 20 m and a vertical limit of separability of about 10 m. The
size of geocost unit cell is therefore taken as 20 m. The seafloor surface extracted from the 3-D seismic
data was exported from a 3-D modeling program and imported into ArcGIS for creation of seafloor maps.
Faults with seafloor expressions, a channel system, landslide deposits, buried mass transport deposits with
near-surface boulders, and fluid expulsion features such as pockmarks were identified in the seafloor
rendering and verified with the 3-D seismic data.
In this example, geohazard core logging and radiocarbon age dates were obtained from 6 geological cores
collected throughout the study area. Four age dates were taken from landslide deposits and two age dates
were taken along faults. The radiometric age dates indicate two landslides have occurred within the last
10,000 years (before present) and are considered geologically young. However, the rate of recurrence of
these geologically young landslides is considered infrequent (e.g., there has not been more than one
landslide in the last 1.6 million years before present). Two landslide deposits are geologically older and
also have a low rate of recurrence. One fault has experienced recent movement within the last 10,000 years
before present and is considered geologically young and potentially active. Another fault that was age-
dated has not had any movement in recent geological time and is considered geologically old and inactive.
Geologically young and active landslides and faults are considered dynamic geohazards.
Metocean data was collected in the northern part of the study area to assess ocean current conditions. The
data collected indicate that bottom currents are not actively scouring the seafloor and therefore, seabed
scour is not considered a hazard to the installation or development of a subsea pipeline in the northern part
of the study area.
High resolution geophysical data such as MBES, SBP, or SSS and geotechnical data are not available for
this example project.
Data provided for this case study are sufficient for the determination of a preliminary pipeline corridor and
route. Additional high-resolution geophysical surveys, ROV video, geotechnical in-situ testing and
sampling, and geohazard cores are essential to adequately assess seafloor conditions and determine a final
pipeline route.
Step 2 Collect, evaluate, classify, and weight geohazard, cultural, environmental, and
geotechnical constraints
Seafloor conditions and geohazards can be quickly assessed using maps that show geometric geohazards.
For example, the bathymetric (water depth) map is used to calculate seafloor slope angles and seafloor
roughness using procedures in ArcGIS. The slope map indicates steep angles occur along the failure
surfaces of landslide deposits, channel margins, and steep-sided boulders and pockmarks (Appendix 2,
Figure 4). A roughness map indicates that rough areas of the seafloor occur in the northern boulder field
and along steep failure planes along the channel system (Appendix 2, Figure 4).
Using the bathymetric surface and 3-D seismic data, geologic geohazards are also identified. A prominent
seafloor channel system with steep walls defines the central and southern parts of the study area (Appendix 2,
Figure 5). Landslide scarps and resulting landslide deposits along the steep walls of the channel system
suggest that the slopes are unstable. Faults with seafloor expression, related to periods of regional geological
deformation, are evident in the central and southern parts of the study area. The northern part of the study
area has an overall rough topography and consists of many boulders and pockmarks (Appendix 2, Figure 5).
Manmade hazards within the study area consist of three manifolds and an existing pipeline (Appendix 2,
Figure 5). For the purposes of this example project, we assume that both the manifolds and the pipeline
each require a 1 km buffer and are restricted zones; therefore, the route cannot pass through those areas.
FIGURE 4
Geometric Hazards
The example data also include outlines of 4 environmentally sensitive areas to be considered during route
selection. The sensitivity of each area is ranked as low, moderate, high, and very high; the very high area is
considered a restricted area for the route assessment (Appendix 2, Figure 5). It is recommended (but not
required) to avoid the non-restricted environmentally sensitive areas. However, if necessary, the pipeline
may be routed through, or near, these areas to avoid a hazard.
FIGURE 5
Geohazards, Manmade Hazards, and Environmental Constraints
Using a scale of 10 = high to 1 = low, geocosts are allocated (Appendix 2, Table 1; Appendix 2, Figure 6)
to identified geohazards by a team of experienced geoscientists and geotechnical engineers, who assess the
severity of each hazard and rank them relative to one another in the project’s study area.
To emphasize the effect that slopes would have on pipeline route selection, low slope angles (0° to 5°) are
classified with a geocost of 1, moderate slope angles (5° to 10°) are classified with a geocost of 5 and higher
slope angles (> 10°) are classified with a geocost of 10.
Roughness values within the range of 0 to ±0.6 m are smoother parts of the seabed and are assigned a geocost
of 1 (Appendix 2, Table 1; Appendix 2, Figure 6). Roughness values greater than ±0.6 m are considered rougher
parts of the seabed and are classified with a geocost of 10.
Faults that were determined to be geologically active based on radiometric age dates were assigned a geocost
of 10 and faults that were determined to be geologically inactive were assigned a value of 2.
Geologically older deposits are not considered dynamic geohazards during the life of the project and they
are assigned lower geocost values between 2 and 6. The range in values represents the complexity of the
landslide deposit and the availability to properly assess the landslide deposit. For example, a landslide that
has been determined to be geologically old may be assigned a geocost of 2 and a landslide deposit that has
similar characteristics to the old landslide but does not have a confirmed radiometric age date may be assigned a
geocost of 6. Geologically younger deposits, which may indicate the potential for future landslides, are
considered potentially dynamic and assigned higher geocosts (Appendix 2, Table 1).
The 3-D seismic data indicate the channel system may be considered inactive. However, there is not enough
data collected within the channel system to determine the activity of the channel, therefore, the channel
system is assigned a value of 8.
The steepness of the boulders and potential for pipeline spanning results in an allocated geocost value of 10.
Pockmarks were created by past expulsion of gas, fluid, or sediment onto the seafloor. These remnant expulsion
features lead to irregular seafloor and steep-sided depressions. Remnant pockmarks that have no evidence
of current expulsion may cause problems such as pipeline free-spans and results in an allocated geocost
value of 10.
TABLE 1
Geocosts for Geohazards, Manmade Hazards, and Environmental Constraints
Geometric Hazards Geocost Geologic Hazards Geocost
Seabed Slope Angle Static Hazards
0° to 5° 1 Inactive Fault 2
5° to 10° 5 Landslides (geologically old) 2 to 6
> 10° 10 Boulders (individual) 10
Seabed Roughness Pockmarks (individual) 10
±0 to ±0.6 m 1 Dynamic Hazards
±0.6 to 16+ m 10 Channel System 8
Active Fault 10
Sensitive Areas Geocost Landslides (geologically young) 10
Very High Sensitivity Restricted
High Sensitivity 9 Manmade Features Geocost
Moderate Sensitivity 5 Manifolds Restricted
Low Sensitivity 2 Pipeline Restricted
FIGURE 6
Allocation of Geocosts to Seafloor Slope, Roughness, and Geologic Hazards
Step 3 Create a geocost composite map and perform manual routing, least-geocost routing,
or stochastic simulations and select the route.
In this example, all geological features are depicted as vector features in GIS and comprise polygons, lines,
and points. Vector geohazard polygons/lines/points and environmentally sensitive areas were converted from
a vector file to a raster file to create geocost component maps. The slope angle map and roughness maps
were already raster files.
For this example, a total of 9 geocost component maps were added together and averaged:
• Seafloor Slope
• Seafloor Roughness
• Landslides
• Faults
• Pockmarks
• Boulders
• Channel System
• Environmentally Sensitive Areas
• Manmade Hazards
The averaged geocosts produce a value range of 1 = lowest to 6 = highest. The restricted zones (existing
infrastructure and very high environmentally sensitive area) were omitted from the data and shown as
gray-scale areas in the resulting geocost composite map (Appendix 2, Figure 7).
FIGURE 7
Geocost Composite Map
For this example, manual routing is shown in Appendix 2, Figure 8. This route is the shortest distance
(straight line) between the start and end termini and would be ideal if no geohazards were present along the
route. However, as seen in Appendix 2, Figure 8 the straight line route crosses several high geocost areas.
The geocost composite map was used for least-geocost path routing as described in 2/5.3 of these Guidance
Notes. As seen in Appendix 2, Figure 8, the optimized route travels through low geocost areas.
FIGURE 8
Manual Route and Least-Geocost Route
TABLE 2
Geocost Comparison
Least-Geocost Path Straight Route
Length (km) 44.2 41.3
Geocost 44,644 51,377
TABLE 3
Risk Assessment Levels
Risk Level Risk Management Action
To perform the risk assessment the route was divided into 5 (10 km × 10 km) equal size areas to assess the
geohazard impact to pipeline infrastructure (Appendix 2, Figure 9). The number and size of the areas can
also be project specific and decided upon by the project team. In this example, the total risk value for each
area should be no greater than 500 to be considered an acceptable or marginally acceptable route. This
limit may vary from project to project, can be based on corporate policies or industry examples, and
decided upon by the project team or Owner prior to the risk assessment. Using Appendix 2, Table 4,
geohazards in each of the five areas were assessed and assigned a value based on the potential impact the
geohazard would have on a pipeline. For example, the impact of a large (> 100 km2) landslide in Area 1 would
be catastrophic. However, the likelihood of this happening is very unlikely during the life of the project
because no landslides occur in this area and the geomorphology is not considered landslide-prone. Therefore,
landslides would be assigned a value of 100. This process continued for each geohazard in each of the five
areas along the proposed route (Appendix 2, Table 5).
TABLE 4
Risk Assessment Matrix
Risk Likelihood
Very
Rare Unlikely Possible Occasionally Likely
Unlikely
Has Likely to Likely to Likely to
Has not Has
occurred on occur in 10% occur 1-2 occur
occurred in occurred in
a similar of similar times on this repeatedly on
the industry the industry
project projects project this project
Infrastructure Damage
10-5 - 10-4 10-4 - 10-3/ 10-3 - 10-2 10-2 - 10-1
and Environmental Qualification < 10-5/yr > 10-1/yr
Impact / yr yr /yr /yr
Catastrophic pipeline
rupture and oil spill Catastrophic 50 100 250 500 1000 2000
(500,000 US gallons)
Severe pipeline rupture
and oil spill (250,000 US Severe 25 50 100 250 500 1000
gallons)
Risk Consequence
For each area, the consequence of a landslide is considered catastrophic. However, the likelihood of a landslide
varies depending on the geological terrain and whether landslides are already present. Landslides are considered
very unlikely to possible. The consequence of an active channel is considered moderate to major and the
likelihood is very unlikely in some areas where the channel is not present to possible where the channel is
present but there is not enough data to determine whether it is active or not. The consequence of a pipeline
laid across a boulder is considered minor. The likelihood varies depending on the presence of boulders in
the area. The consequence of a pockmark is considered minor and the likelihood of encountering a pockmark
varies from unlikely to possible.
Area 3 is considered the highest risk area because a geologically young landslide is present within the 10 km
by 10 km area around the proposed pipeline route. Another landslide occurring in this area could strike and
rupture the pipeline. Because the landslide in this area is considered a high cost geohazard, the landslide is
assigned a risk value of 500 based on available data for this feature and in this area. Area 4 also contains a
geologically young landslide. However, if another landslide occurred in this area, it is interpreted to be parallel
to the pipeline and may not impact the pipeline like a landslide in Area 3 and is therefore assessed as a marginal
risk.
FIGURE 9
Risk Assessment Areas along Least-Geocost Route
TABLE 5
Geohazard Risk Values for Areas 1 through 5
Geohazards
Area Landslides Channels Boulders Pockmarks Faults Total
1 100 25 5 10 25 165
Risk Value
2 250 25 25 10 25 335
3 500 25 5 25 10 565
4 250 25 5 25 10 315
5 100 25 25 25 10 185
Step 7 Recommendations
Four out of the five risk assessment areas are considered acceptable based on the maximum of 500 risk value
per area. The presence of a younger and potentially active landslide in Area 3 deems the route through this
area marginally unacceptable based upon the available data. Further investigations – including site-specific
geotechnical and stratigraphic investigations of the landslide complex – may help to further refine the
hazard and reduce risk through improved understanding of the hazard. If the results of such studies do not
reduce risk to an acceptable level, either another route must be considered or the pipeline must be engineered
and constructed to resist landslide movement. However, discussion of such engineering design options is
beyond the scope of route determination. Because the route under consideration was selected based on existing
knowledge of geohazards, it is unlikely that a markedly better route can be determined and mitigation by
engineering the pipeline to resist the hazard is the most viable solution. If additional information becomes
available and the route becomes unacceptable on the basis of that new information, the route determination
procedure can be revised.