Solutions Degroot

INSTRUCTOR’S SOLUTIONS
MANUAL
INSTRUCTOR’S SOLUTIONS
MANUAL
to accompany
PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

THIRD EDITION
Morris H. DeGroot
Mark J. Schervish
Carnegie Mellon University
To the memory of Morrie DeGroot MJS
Reproduced by Addison-Wesley from files supplied by the author.
Copyright © 2002 Pearson Education, Inc.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in
any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written
permission of the publisher. Printed in the United States of America.
ISBN 0-201-87999-9
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 VG 05 04 03 02

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0 6"+ #+ "7 ' " 0 (
( "! * (" * ( "

# * ( ? %- % A % A
( + -

% " 0 * * A ! * * " 0
' * *!
* " * ! " / * "
* #+ #+ "

, A " ! "-
( A
* % !
*

# 0 * A (

' A ! ( * "# E F A (

"
A
(
/ A %
' A ! -" * % " A
+
/ A %
'
! ( * "# E F! "
(
' ! * A % ' " ! -" " +
* * * " A " / A *
, " ! ' + ( "#
* ( 8 ! " * A / D ' # 0 "
# * "

( $ "# * * " #
" " * + * ' * * *
" " / ( # /((+ (
*" / / , (! " + (+ "" *
( " 6(+
H
7

67 ; * #+ /" ( "
* 7 A
' 6 7 #
" # /+ " # ( + "# E F "
+ ' A +6 ( 7 ' "" * * #/ !
* "" < .(( A ! " A

" .(( A
! " A
6#7 , * "" ( 67! 7 "" +
"

@ ) A D 6 7( (" ) # 6 7 7 ! )
"" "#
" ("+ 2
" A
6 7A

"

0 67 A " # * ("

2 ! ( * "# E F " A ( " ("+
2

6 7 A " A 6 7

6 "7
0 67 A 6 7 " # *
(" 2 ! ( * "# E F " A 6 ( 7
" " #
$ %
.6 7 A
"
A 6 7 D
6 D " 7
0 . 67 A 6E

F7 ! ( "#
E F! 6E(
F7 "#
(## ( ( ( 67 "("!
# - ( + " # * (
# - ( D 6 76 7 A !
D
67 " @( "#

(6 7

!

.6 7 A

(6"7" A

(6 7

0
. 67 A
+6
7
!
+6
E F7

" # ( E F " A . 6( 7
6#7 %-
6 7 A
(6
7
6
7
26 7 A
(6 7

> " -" 26 7 6 7 0! * " &

&
(6
7 6
7
(6 7
* A &6
7 & - 6
7 (
(6
7 " ! * / ( (6
7

C ! * C
"
A !
& A (6
7 4*! (G9 * A (6
76
7 A

" ( "" "# H

"# * "+ " " "(" ! * H "# *

"+ " ' *

. "# * " "+ "

67 ' "" - ( 0" " +
! ! ! ! "

# 0 # # * * +- "+
6#7 - * !
!
! ! "

67 0" ( C " ! +++ * "
(
( (G9 + *" "# E
F
! 26 7 A
6726 7 6 7 ! A > "
( " ) # + "# E F A
)
6
) 7 67(
" 9 *
?+ ( "# " ! ( "# (##
( +(
1 * (
&( - <
' (

@

#
#

> # " # * # ( *
* (( ( ( + > "" -
" + (( !
! ! ! " ( C
0" "" "
. H "# * "+ " + "# * (
"
! * " ' + H "# *
"+ " "
A A ' "

> "" C 7 A

67 ( ( " 8 8 ,+
6#7 + (( ( (# ( +
,+
2
] " +6A A 7 * ( " ] *
# C# (## * ( 6 7 0

1.0
0.8
0.6
Sample d.f.
0.4
0.2
0.0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Absolute
difference between group means
,+ < ( " 8 8

67

500
400
300
Count
200
100
0
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2
Log-ratio of precisions
,+
< ;+ +6A A 7
6#7

@ A . 6( 7! * . "-" 0 6

7 " ( "#
E F @ # " > " * A . ! * . "-" 0 6
7
. / " " ! * 9 ( " J *
. 9 ( " " " J * ! * " *
. 6 7 A 6 7 " " @ A " " ( A

6( 7 A ! * 6" 7 A A
! 6 7 A . 6 7 " "
,! # 1 0 @ #

A 6 7 A E 6 7F

4*! A "
A 6 7 6 7

A
" ."+ + !

6 7 6 7

A
! * 6 7 A
1 0
6 7
( * . 9 (") " # "" 9 (G(") "
(") " ' " # "" () " + (
" "(" 0 ( + 0 " # (" #
(# ( " * + (

@ A (6@7@6I7 A " A @ ( "#

E F @ ' # ( ' "# *
@
@ # ( (## " 2 2
! A 2 6 7 " A
!

2 6 7 A ! * (##

6 A 7 A 6 A A 7 6 A 7

6 A 7 A
A
" 6 A A 7 A 2 6 7! *
6 A 7 A

2 6 7 6 7

/! 0 6 7 (- ( " *
0 6 7 0 6
7
(## * #

6 A 7

6 A 7

* * ( " (## " A ' *
A "= (#
A ! * A " A
2 67 A " 2 6
7 A
6
7 A
6 7 A
4! / A " A 2 6 7 A

" 2 67 A
/ 67 A 4! / A
" A 2 6
7 A !
2 67 A ! " 67 A 4! / A " A !
C" #
" 0 , (! * " " * A " A
(# # *" " "= #

# < B "
2 6 7 2 6 7 2 6 7 2 6 7

, A
! A "
' D D ;

6 A 7 A '

A

" " ( + A
6( " A 7 A 6
' D " A 7
A 6
' D " A 7

6 A 7
' " D

'
A

"D
A

'

A "
" ! " "# ( + A E F

" "# ! ( " "(" " +
"# ( E F

? ( (+ + + / * ( " -
' #+ +" ( #""! +
- ") (( ( ! # " "
# " * (# " * " -" ( (+
"" ( 0 ! # + # /((" - ( -
" * "" " 0! "
# ( (# ! # # "Æ "

> * (( + 26 7 (( * ( (+ *
#+ (" "# E F 26 7 6 7 A 6 726 7

4*! 6 7 6
7

,! * "# " " > * (( +
26 7 6 7 + ( (+ * ( > "
* (" " (
26 7 6 7

' A A 26 7
6 7
( (+ + ' 4 (
- "
67 "# * 0 ( " . 6 7 A
6& 7 &! 0 . 67 A &6 7 ! ( +
"# E F " A &6 ( 7 ("
6#7 @
$ %
Q 6 D
7

A

Q
Q

(" ' 26 7 A 6 D

7 ! ;!

6' &7 A
6 D
7
> " (( # (+ * (" ( 67 "
++ 26 7 6 7
67 26 7 6 7 ! &!
26 7
A A
6 7 & 6

76 D
7 & 6

76 D
7
J + * " & !
( (+ * ++ " # 26 7 6 7
! + "
67 ' ( ! (( +
+6 D 7 ' * ( ! ' + + "
*
""
#
6#7 ?+ ( (+ * ( #+ + (" * (
" ! ' + " * ""
#

67 ( 6#7 "" +
( (6 7 +" (
+6 D 7 ! *

@ ( "# E F! " * # "-" # 0 6 7

P 8
6A 9
& 8

P
9
"

( 6 8 7 6 7
6
7 9 P & 9 8
9

(" ( ! (" * 6 7! * 6 7

67 > " * ' ( "#
E F! A P 6P6 7 D ( E P6 7F7 " "# '
" ! + 6 P6 77
C ("" ! ! "
6#7 ' ' ( "# * ( ! " A 6 D ' 7 ! * -"
(" A * "
("

(6 D 7 ' " !
+ (6 76
7 C (""
! ! "
67 "" ( 67 * ! *
( 6#7 * # ! + " # +"
( 6#7 ( 67
67 > # # + + - " +
" " " - , (! * ( "("
" # * " ! * A D (
C (""
! ! " * 3
""
6#7 ?+ " ( ! * "" C " +
! ! " * "" # ! #
+ ( 67 .! * ( 6#7
(" ( 67
" # +" ( ( (+ ' A
26 7 6 * ) (" 2 #""! ' -
7 A . 6 7 * " 6 7 ! (" 6 76 7
. 6) 7! . 67 . 67
, ( 67! -" ( ( # " # (+ ( "
67 # D ( 6 7 * 6 7 ( 6
7! 6
7! 6 7! 6 7! 6 7
, ( 6#7! ( ' # +6 E D ( 6 7F7 A 6 D ' 7 + -
6 7 ( + - *
( ("" !

! "
( 67 "
! ! "

( 6#7 ""
* # ( 67 " ( 6#7 1 ( ""
# G G C

" (" + 5 A ! + ("

6 7 A

6 7 65 A 7 A 6 7

6 7 A 6 7 ! " 6 7 ;!

6 7 A 6 7

67 + @( "# * ( " 9
:6"7 A (6" 7
9 (6 97

+ - " " 9 + -
" " 9 + - " 9 " 9
+
$ D %A

9 " D 9 " D 9 " 9
+++ 9 A 6 + (
6#7 > 6 A ! :6 7 A > A ! * + - A D +6 7 A >
C + " "#"
" ( * ! ! "
"" * #
67 ! " *! -6! -6 A " " *! +
*
. 67 A
E(6 7 F !
E(6 7 D F
0
. 67 A
+6 D 77

!
+6
E F 7

> * ( " "#! * " "" + # !
* " (" " (" >
C " + ! ! " *
"" #
""
* ( 6#7
67 6/ 7 A 6' 7 D & A 6* 7 6) 7 D & 1 ( (+ + !
"
6* 7 A 26 7 " 6) 7 A &! 6/ 7 A 26 7
6#7 56/ 7 A E90 D 9
;9 9 F 0" C" * A ;9 9
6 0 6 0 6
67 > /* 6 D 7 A > 6 7 A (6 76 (6 77

> * (" " (
* A
(6 7
D
(E F6 (6 77
) A
D

> " + + 0
!

!
"
* "" " ( 3
( > * * *+ ( 6#7
6#7 > ( 90 ! 9 ! " ;
(( # +! * " " + (
1" ! * + A .""
+ (" "" "
67 ( " ( # "# E F! A . 6( 7
" % A . 6 ( 7 "#
6#7 " % "#! " * " ) ! * " )
# " # 26 7 ! "+ ( (+ +
67 . + ! * /* " % "+
' 26 7 6 7 ! * " ) * # "+
. + # + " *
+
6"7 56/ 7 A 56' 77! "
56' 7 A
E56* 7 D 56) 7 D
6* ) 7F A 6 D ;7 56* 7
> ! * + 56* 7E
7F ' ; ! 6 D ;7
" 56/ 7 * + *
?+ " " ! * "" C " +

!
! "
* 56' 7 #
! (( G 9V
(
' 67! 26 7 6 7 ! " ( '
6#7! * " * 46 7 A (6 7 ' 67 " 6#7 26 7 6 7
! " ( * 46 7 A (6
7 "
( 67 ! " " # "
-"

$/ $ 6$$7 ( " ( 1 ' 3
( + &## (+ # ( (# + (+ + /
' " /( " * ++ ( " " *
(+ +! ( * " ( + &## (+ 9-
+ (+ H $/
! * + #
/((" ( + $$

" (" + A
6 7 &26 7
2 6 7 A A A & 4 6 7
6 7 6 7 6 7
@ & A & 6 7! * " "("

@ 6 7 A 6 7 " + (" ! " 2 6 7 A 6 7 6 7

" " (" + A > ((+ +
"# * (" ' (
&## (+ + ! A #"!
(" "# * (" 2 6 7 ;! 9 (" 6 7
6 72 6 7 A 6 7 ' ( + "# ! "
+ * 9 + 6* #( "
* " " ((+ ( "

&## (+ + 7 * 6 7 9 "# 6 7
@ 460 7 " ( (" "# " 260 0 7 " "
(" ( / + / A 0 ! * " # (( /
"# ! 6/ / 7 9 ( (" 460 7260 0 7
/ " "#! 6/ / 7 9 ( (" 460 7260 0 7 ;!
6/ / 7 "# 6/ / 7 * / "# (
( * * / "# > * #
" > /* A 6 ! / "#7 .
/ / "#! " ( / "#
4 (" ( "#! * + (" (

/ 460 7260 0 70 %&& 460 7260 0 7! * 460 7 # "-
"# ; / "#! " " (
(
56 7 A 9
"
56' 7 A 9
D

6' ' 7

6' ' 7 ! 56' 7 9

A 56 7
( + #
! " !
( (3
(
- A ? A 8 A
" < A
" "#" ( 8 + "#
*
" 6 A 7 " A + + "# *
( " D 68
7 ' ( ! ' " - $/ *
*+ + 8< ! ! ! ! "

+ *
0/! # * "" #3 * " 6 A87 *

*
"" 6 * #/ #/ (+7
" * " * ( ( *+<
A
A A

! A
! A ! A
! A
! A
! A
"
A

1.0
0.8
0.6
Sample d.f.
0.4
0.2
0.0
20 40 60 80 100 120
Absolute beta-1
,+ < ( " < 67
2000
1500
Count
1000
500
0
4000 4500 5000
1986 means
,+ < ;+ < D

< D
< 6#7
67 + < ,+

6#7 + < D
< D
< ,+
@ A 6

7 ( (+ ("!
* / + ( 6#7 " "" ("3"
#
*
* + "
D 6 7 A

> ( " 0 "( '
( ! ' + *+ E
F! E F! " E F
+ *" (
+ " ( 6#7 ,+ +
(" ( 6#7 # (" 0 ( 3
( "(" " # 6 "#" ( 6#77 ""
"(" " #

A # A +( ( +
! ! "

1500
1000
Count
500
0
3000 4000 5000 6000
1986 predictions
,+ < ;+ ("" 6#7
!

! " ' ( C ! '
+ *+ ( < 6
!
! 7! 6
!
! 7!
" 6
!
!
7 6 * #/ #/ (+7
67 ( * " ! * " ( * + $" * *
+ A A $"
A ) "("! ' ) "("
++ A ) ' $"
! E' 6< D < 7FA "" "#
+ A ! " "(" A .! A 9 H "# * "+
" !
E' 6< D < 7FA
A 9
" "# * "+ " ! * $"
6#7 ( ("
A M (6MA
7
* +
M (6M
7 !

* / "

*
! +
A (6E < < F A
7

(" * (" 0 6 7

67 .

M! * M (* 6
D 7
, (* M

D A ! "

! (" + "# *
( 6
D7
" 6 D A 7
. A ! * A (* 6D 7

, (* AEM D6 < < 7 F
! * 6" 7 ("
+ "# * ( 6 D 7
" EM D 6 < < 7 F
.
< ! * , (*

A 6 < 7
A6< E < F7
A
A <

D &
A

* & " "(" < 6? " (+ 07
(" "# " (+ 0
< (" " <
' ( C ' + ( 6< < M7
6

7! 6
7! " 6
7
' (( * " ( + +" ( < 3
" ( "" " * 6

7! 6
7! " 6

7
@ (( ( (( 8 ! ? ! - ! " < " ' )! )

' A " ( C ' "# * 8 " (
A
67 " "# 8 + "# * 0

8 D '

! " ( 0 A '
? D '

6#7

" "# A + + "# * ( - D
'
D
"

< D ? 68 8 7 D ' 6 87

67 & + ( ' !

A
A (
E 8F

6' A 7 A
A

A ( E 8F D (

6"7 &## (+! * " + # /* , (!
* " " + " * "# * (## G

" ( " * 03C" # & + ' )! * "
8 " A ( + # "#
* /* ( > *" + + " # *
"# ( 67H67 . #3 " + ! (
# + ( ( +
67 ( ' ( (## ' A ' A
"# * /* " ! (
' ( (## "# * /* "

, ! ' - $/ , ! ' #
' 2 " (## "# * /*
" 0 + ' A "
(## " #*<
B " ##

4 C " # ( ( "# 8
67 ( (" / " 0
8 9
A ( A

E 8F D ! ( C
E8 8F A ( A<

* ! A 6 7 . A / / (" + "#
* ( - D

" E
6 87 D ! D < F
. 8! 6# (+
07 / / (" "# * 6
A D 8 C 76
A D C 7 "
6
A D C 7
6#7 "
A ! A
! " ! A ' - +
( , ! ' #" ( (
# ! ' " 8 "
" ,
! ' + E

F! E
F! " E

F
' ( 67! ( "(" " #

67 " "# 68 8 7C + C "" ! "("
C .! "#
C H "# *
"+ " ' *
68 8 76 7 " "# *
"+ "
6#7 + ( "# A * ((

" + ( "# 8 !
# (( " > " A - / "+ "
! " * " A < ? " /
67 ( (" / " 0

A C ( A 8
E 8F D ! D < 9 C E8 8 F D C

. A
. 8!

* ( C # C . C ! / / (" + "#
* ( D
" D 68 8 7

6"7 ! ' + "=
" # + 8 " +
"
E
F! E
F! " E
F
" "" ( (( - A ! 8 A ! ? A ! "
< A
67 ' " +
6#7 + ("" ,+ * "= #*
+ " ,+ ,! "# +3 "
+ + + "! "# ("
+ 64 "= C #* * -+7
67 " (""
! ("

( ! #
] +
67 , " # ! * # & (## &
+ @ (6&@7 / " (

@ E (6&@7F ( @

6 7

30000
25000
20000
15000
Count
10000
5000
0
-4 -2 0 2 4 6
Predicted Log(Arsenic) Values (micrograms per liter)
,+ < ;+ @+3 (" 6#7
> #" ( " "#
+ @ " + & ("
@ (6@ 7
26 @7 A
(6@&7 & 6 7
' * ( " (" 6 7 + @ 0 6 7! * +

@ ( @

@ " & A
D
D . @! / / ("

+ "# * (
D D - " . ! /

/ (" 0 6 7 ! &## (+ */ * / + @!
+ " " #
* (" 6 7 # " + 0
67 A
+6 E (6&@7F7

@
! * @ + "# " # (
6#7 , " # ! * # & (## &
+ @ (6&@7 / " (

@ ( @ & D

6 7

> " #" ( " "#
+ @ " + & ("
26 @7 A @ (6@E &F7 & 6 7
' * ( " (" 6 7 + @ 0 6 7! * +

@ ( @

@ " & A
D
D . @! / / ("

+ "# * (
D D - " . ! /

/ (" 0 6 7 ! &## (+ */ * / +

D
@! $@! " # * (" 6 7
& D

# " + 0
67 A &
+6 7
@
! * @ + "# " # (
' ( ! &## (+ "" # ( "#
@ # " 4 6 7 (" +

"# * (
D - " & D ! * ( "# @

67 9 (" 6 / 7 # " 9 (" 6 ' 7 "
46 7 A 6 D 7 9 (" 6 ' 7 6 7 A ?8 (6 ? 87
4 6 0 7 A 6 0 7! * 8# 0 ! 9 ("
6 / 7
26 0 7 A 6 0 7 A ?8 (6 E? 8F 087 0 ! 0
+ (" / + !
?8
2 60 7 A E (60 E? 8F7F (6087
?8
0 " (" + / A 0
26 0 7 ?8
A (6 E? 8F7 0 6 7
2 60 7 (60 E? 8F7
" " + / A 0 + ! *
6#7 / " (

? 8

!

6? 87
( ? 8 E ( 6E? 8F0 7F 6 7

> #" ( 6 ' 7 A D

( * #
D ' A / ! * 9 ( " (" +
( " / 6 7 $(+ (" (") A D
6 7 +
& (
? 8 ( '?

8 D 60 7) 6 7

* 0 A D
. ?! 6 7 / / ("

+ "# * (
D " . 8 / / ("

+ "# * (
D " . 6 A D
7!

/ / (" 6 7 ! &## (+ */ * / + 8
" ?! + #" ) " ' )
#" A D
+ (## +
* ? " 8 + + "# " # (

#( # (( 0 + 31 (# #
( #( # ( " *
( '""! " /* * " "# 6 (
7
" ( "" 6 7

> " # + @ # $@! * *" ( "#
* ( "# .V #( #(
( + ( C
"# .V ! !
( "# * (
+
# .V ! * 0 ! #(

# /* * * ( . @
A
" 5 A ! * (
6 A 6 A
!
!

A 7 A 65 A 5 A 7 A 65 A 7 A 7

" 0 * 5 5 " ( * (

@
A
D ( " ( #( ( D
# #( ( @ " # + (
. + # + ( 0 6? + A ! #
7 ( " #( ( 0 + "
" D # #( ( 0 #
#( 0 * (## +
" #( # "("!
(## D 0

+ +

* #/ #/ + A

, #( (! ( ( " # +
( " + ( "!
' " * ( ( C

" " # (
( " * "
C

P D A

! ' "" #( ( * # * ! * ""

( "
67 ' ! ' "" C # * !
! "
6#7 ! " ( C "" "" * #*
"
67 , #( (! ( ( " * * (
' "" ( C
" + (
' "" C " + (
6#7 "" ! * *" " C

P D

A

! * *" " # #( (
67 #( ( + "# * "
G ! ' + "# * " G ! #+
H " # * "+ " ! " #+ H "
# * "+ " , (! * ( ( (+
> ( * (( #

" 0 " "# * "+ " !
' (
! ' + (( ! ! "
6#7 ! * " 0 "# ( ,
! * ( " ' !
* ! ! "
67 ( "" ( 0! ' ( (
+ C
, ! ' ( "

"" 03 3+ (
+ ' ! ' +
! ! "
03 ("

6 7 A ! " ' 6' 7 A ' 6 7
!

" '

6' ' 7

E6 76' ' 7F A

6 76' ' 7

%"+ # 03 (" " 6

7
67 , #( (! ( ( ( (
(( #(
( ' "" ( " + ( !
! "

6#7 (( #( # ( +
+ ( ! ' ! ' + !
!
"
' / / + #( ( + +"
#
67 , "" ! * 03 0 6 7
* ' 6 7 ' ! ' +

!
! "
, "" #

! * 9 # +! * " 03
( ' ! ' + !
! "
, # ( 67 " 6#7! * " #( ( , #( (! * (
( " # ! A " + "
# A

67 # + ( 9
" " ' " + *+
< E F! E F! " E F
6#7 (" " ( + ( ' ,
#( (! ( (" ' ' " #
"! * ' A " 6# # 7' ,"
" " / " / (3" -"
# /' # D /' ' ! ' + E F! E
F! "
E F
67 ( + # "+ ! " 9
-"
#" "# " "# 0 % 6 7 A
"
0

! E F "#
#(
67 ' "# . ! 8 A 6 7 A !
9 A 56 7 A

6 7 "

6E 8F 7 A

6 7

+++ /* "
# +

6#7 - ( " A ! 6 7
A ! "

6 7
A ! ( /* # A
, #( (!
* ( ( /* # A # # " #

( + # ) # ' "" " +
!

! "
"" " # ! ( ( ""
" # ) ' ! ' + ! ! "

> * * "# ( 68 8 9 9 ;7
; @ A 68 8 9 9 ;7 " A 68 8 9 9 ;7 # *

( ; @ A 9 9 ! A 9 9 ! A 8 8 !
" 8 8 , A
! # ( C
# "#
* ( ! " # ( > * * "
"# > A E6 ' 7 6 ' 7F A
%- A 6 D 7!
' A 6' D 7 A
A E6 ' 7 6 ' 7F
"# @ # ( (" "
"# > ( ( # *+ A ; " "
"# A ! A " ' ! "

' A 6 D 7 " ' A 6' D 7 ! ! A 6 7 "
' ' A 6' ' 7 ! *
6 76' ' 7

A &

(
6 7 6' ' 7 )

'

6 76' ' 7

A & (

'
6 7
6' ' 7 )

A

, " # + ' # + ! ,+
0 ( ' / + 2 C ' (" "
.
4
.. . .
...
..
..
.........
.......
...........
........
........
...........
..........
2
.
...
...
.
.......
..........
.........
Simulated values
.........
.........
...
...
..........
.........
.........
..........
........
.........
0
...
...
..........
.........
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...
...
..........
.
........
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.........
-2
.........
.........
.
...
........
.
..
........
........
....
. . . ....
.
-4
-4 -2 0 2 4
Normal quantiles
,+ < 4 0 ( . + # """

("3 " ! ' (" P 6 7 A

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INSTRUCTOR’S SOLUTIONS

PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

Reproduced by Addison-Wesley from files supplied by the author.

Copyright © 2002 Pearson Education, Inc.

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0 50 100 150 200

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