Data Mining For The Masses

Data Mining
for the Masses
Dr. Matthew North
A Global Text Project Book
This book is available on Amazon.com.
© 2012 Dr. Matthew A. North

This book is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0
License All rights reserved.
ISBN: 0615684378
ISBN-13: 978-0615684376
ii
DEDICATION
This book is gratefully dedicated to Dr. Charles Hannon, who gave me the chance
to become a college professor and then challenged me to learn how to teach data
mining to the masses.
iii
iv
Data Mining for the Masses
Table of Contents
Dedication
..........................................................................................................................................
.............iii Table of
Contents...........................................................................................................................
.................v
Acknowledgements..........................................................................................................
..............................xi SECTION ONE: Data Mining
Basics.........................................................................................................1 Chapter
One: Introduction to Data Mining and CRISP-DM
..................................................................3
Introduction...................................................................................................................
..............................3 A Note About Tools
..................................................................................................................................4
The Data Mining Process
..........................................................................................................................5 Data
Mining and
You...............................................................................................................................
11
Chapter Two: Organizational Understanding and Data Understanding
..............................................13 Context and Perspective
..........................................................................................................................13
Learning
Objectives......................................................................................................................
............14 Purposes, Intents and Limitations of Data

Mining..............................................................................15 Database, Data
Warehouse, Data Mart, Data Set…?..........................................................................15
Types of Data
......................................................................................................................................
......19 A Note about Privacy and Security
........................................................................................................20 Chapter
Summary.......................................................................................................................
...............21 Review
Questions......................................................................................................................
................22
Exercises.......................................................................................................................
..............................22
Chapter Three: Data
Preparation................................................................................................................25
Context and Perspective
..........................................................................................................................25
Learning
Objectives.....................................................................................................................
.............25 Collation
......................................................................................................................................
...............27
v
Data Scrubbing
......................................................................................................................................
...28 Hands on
Exercise.........................................................................................................................
...........29 Preparing RapidMiner, Importing Data,
and........................................................................................30 Handling Missing Data
............................................................................................................................30
Data Reduction
......................................................................................................................................
...46 Handling Inconsistent Data
....................................................................................................................50 Attribute
Reduction......................................................................................................................
............52 Chapter Summary
.....................................................................................................................................
54 Review
Questions......................................................................................................................
...............55 Exercise
......................................................................................................................................
................55
SECTION TWO: Data Mining Models and Methods
...........................................................................57 Chapter Four: Correlation
...........................................................................................................................59
Context and
Perspective.......................................................................................................................
...59 Learning
Objectives.........................................................................................................................
.........59 Organizational
Understanding................................................................................................................5
9 Data Understanding
.................................................................................................................................60
Data
Preparation.......................................................................................................................
................60 Modeling
.........................................................................................................................................
...........62
Evaluation.........................................................................................................................
.........................63
Deployment......................................................................................................................
.........................65 Chapter Summary
.....................................................................................................................................67
Review
Questions.........................................................................................................................
............68 Exercise
.........................................................................................................................................
.............68 Chapter Five: Association
Rules.................................................................................................................73
Context and
Perspective.......................................................................................................................
...73 Learning
Objectives.........................................................................................................................
.........73 Organizational
Understanding................................................................................................................7
vi
Data
Understanding...............................................................................................................
...................74 Data Preparation
......................................................................................................................................
.76
Modeling........................................................................................................................
.............................81 Evaluation
......................................................................................................................................
............84 Deployment
......................................................................................................................................
.........87 Chapter
Summary.......................................................................................................................
...............87 Review
Questions......................................................................................................................
................88 Exercise
......................................................................................................................................
................88
Chapter Six: k-Means
Clustering.................................................................................................................91
..........................................................................................................................91
Learning
Objectives.....................................................................................................................
.............91 Organizational Understanding
................................................................................................................91 Data
UnderstanDing
................................................................................................................................92
Data Preparation
......................................................................................................................................
.92
Modeling........................................................................................................................
.............................94 Evaluation
......................................................................................................................................
............96 Deployment
......................................................................................................................................
.........98 Chapter
Summary.......................................................................................................................
............ 101 Review
Questions......................................................................................................................
............. 101 Exercise
......................................................................................................................................
............. 102
Chapter Seven: Discriminant
Analysis.................................................................................................... 105 Context
and Perspective
....................................................................................................................... 105
Learning
Objectives.....................................................................................................................
.......... 105 Organizational Understanding
............................................................................................................. 106 Data
Understanding...............................................................................................................
................ 106 Data Preparation
....................................................................................................................................
109
Modeling........................................................................................................................
.......................... 114
vii
Evaluation.....................................................................................................................
...........................118
Deployment...................................................................................................................
..........................120 Chapter Summary
...................................................................................................................................1
21 Review
Questions......................................................................................................................
.............122 Exercise
......................................................................................................................................
..............123
Chapter Eight: Linear
Regression.............................................................................................................127
Context and
Perspective...................................................................................................................
.....127 Learning
Objectives.....................................................................................................................
...........127 Organizational
Understanding..............................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................128
Data
Preparation....................................................................................................................
.................129 Modeling
......................................................................................................................................
............131
Evaluation.....................................................................................................................
...........................132
Deployment...................................................................................................................
..........................134 Chapter Summary
...................................................................................................................................1
37 Review
Questions......................................................................................................................
.............137 Exercise
......................................................................................................................................
..............138
Chapter Nine: Logistic
Regression...........................................................................................................141
Context and
Perspective...................................................................................................................
.....141 Learning
Objectives.....................................................................................................................
Understanding..............................................................................................................

...............................................................................................................................142
Data
Preparation....................................................................................................................
.................143 Modeling
......................................................................................................................................
............147
Evaluation.....................................................................................................................
...........................148
Deployment...................................................................................................................
..........................151 Chapter Summary
...................................................................................................................................1
53
viii
Review
Questions.........................................................................................................................
.......... 154 Exercise
.........................................................................................................................................
.......... 154 Chapter Ten: Decision
Trees.................................................................................................................... 157
....................................................................................................................... 157
Learning
Objectives.........................................................................................................................
...... 157 Organizational Understanding
............................................................................................................. 158 Data
Understanding..................................................................................................................
............. 159 Data Preparation
....................................................................................................................................
161
Modeling...........................................................................................................................
....................... 166 Evaluation
.........................................................................................................................................
...... 169 Deployment
.........................................................................................................................................
... 171 Chapter
Summary..........................................................................................................................
......... 172 Review
Questions.........................................................................................................................
.......... 172 Exercise
.........................................................................................................................................
.......... 173 Chapter Eleven: Neural Networks
.......................................................................................................... 175 Context and
Perspective
....................................................................................................................... 175
Learning
Objectives.........................................................................................................................
...... 175 Organizational Understanding
............................................................................................................. 175 Data
Understanding..................................................................................................................
............. 176 Data Preparation
....................................................................................................................................
178
Modeling...........................................................................................................................
....................... 181 Evaluation
.........................................................................................................................................
...... 181 Deployment
.........................................................................................................................................
... 184 Chapter
Summary..........................................................................................................................
......... 186 Review
Questions.........................................................................................................................
.......... 187 Exercise
.........................................................................................................................................
.......... 187 Chapter Twelve: Text
Mining................................................................................................................... 189
ix
Context and
Perspective...................................................................................................................
.....189 Learning
Objectives.....................................................................................................................
Understanding..............................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................190
Data
Preparation....................................................................................................................
.................191 Modeling
......................................................................................................................................
............202
Evaluation.....................................................................................................................
...........................203
Deployment...................................................................................................................
..........................213 Chapter Summary
...................................................................................................................................2
13 Review
Questions......................................................................................................................
.............214 Exercise
......................................................................................................................................
..............214
SECTION THREE: Special Considerations in Data
Mining..............................................................217 Chapter Thirteen: Evaluation and
Deployment.....................................................................................219 How Far We’ve
Come
...........................................................................................................................219
Learning
Objectives.........................................................................................................................
.......220 Cross-Validation
.....................................................................................................................................22
1 Chapter Summary: The Value of
Experience.....................................................................................227 Review
Questions.........................................................................................................................
..........228 Exercise
..........................................................................................................................................
..........228 Chapter Fourteen: Data Mining
Ethics...................................................................................................231 Why Data
Mining Ethics?
.....................................................................................................................231 Ethical
Frameworks and
Suggestions..................................................................................................233
Conclusion........................................................................................................................
.......................235 GLOSSARY and
INDEX.........................................................................................................................237
About the Author
.......................................................................................................................................2
51
x
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would not have had the expertise to write this book if not for the assistance of many
colleagues at various institutions. I would like to acknowledge Drs. Thomas Hilton and
Jean Pratt, formerly of Utah State University and now of University of Wisconsin—Eau
Claire who served as my Master’s degree advisors. I would also like to acknowledge
Drs. Terence Ahern and Sebastian Diaz of West Virginia University, who served as
doctoral advisors to me.
I express my sincere and heartfelt gratitude for the assistance of Dr. Simon Fischer and
the rest of the team at Rapid-I. I thank them for their excellent work on the RapidMiner
software product and for their willingness to share their time and expertise with me on
my visit to Dortmund.
Finally, I am grateful to the Kenneth M. Mason, Sr. Faculty Research Fund and
Washington & Jefferson College, for providing financial support for my work on this
text.
xi
Data Mining for the Masses xii
SECTION ONE: DATA MINING BASICS
1
Chapter 1: Introduction to Data Mining and CRISP-DM
CHAPTER ONE:
INTRODUCTION TO DATA MINING AND CRISP-DM
INTRODUCTION
Data mining as a discipline is largely transparent to the world. Most of the time, we never
even notice that it’s happening. But whenever we sign up for a grocery store shopping
card, place a purchase using a credit card, or surf the Web, we are creating data. These
data are stored in large sets on powerful computers owned by the companies we deal
with every day. Lying within those data sets are patterns—indicators of our interests,
our habits, and our behaviors. Data mining allows people to locate and interpret those
patterns, helping them make better informed decisions and better serve their customers.
That being said, there are also concerns about the practice of data mining. Privacy
watchdog groups in particular are vocal about organizations that amass vast quantities
of data, some of which can be very personal in nature.
The intent of this book is to introduce you to concepts and practices common in data
mining. It is intended primarily for undergraduate college students and for business
professionals who may be interested in using information systems and technologies to
solve business problems by mining data, but who likely do not have a formal background
or education in computer science. Although data mining is the fusion of applied statistics,
logic, artificial intelligence, machine learning and data management systems, you are
not required to have a strong background in these fields to use this book. While having
taken introductory college-level courses in statistics and databases will be helpful, care
has been taken to explain within this book, the necessary concepts and techniques
required to successfully learn how to mine data.
Each chapter in this book will explain a data mining concept or technique. You should
understand that the book is not designed to be an instruction manual or tutorial for the
tools we will use (RapidMiner and OpenOffice Base and Calc). These software
packages are capable of many types of data analysis, and this text is not intended to
cover all of their capabilities, but rather, to illustrate how these software tools can be
used to perform certain kinds of data mining. The book
3
is also not exhaustive; it includes a variety of common data mining techniques, but
RapidMiner in particular is capable of many, many data mining tasks that are not
covered in the book.
The chapters will all follow a common format. First, chapters will present a scenario
referred to as Context and Perspective. This section will help you to gain a real-world
idea about a certain kind of problem that data mining can help solve. It is intended to
help you think of ways that the data mining technique in that given chapter can be
applied to organizational problems you might face. Following Context and Perspective,
a set of Learning Objectives is offered. The idea behind this section is that each chapter
is designed to teach you something new about data mining. By listing the objectives at
the beginning of the chapter, you will have a better idea of what you should expect to
learn by reading it. The chapter will follow with several sections addressing the chapter’s
topic. In these sections, step-by-step examples will frequently be given to enable you to
work alongside an actual data mining task. Finally, after the main concepts of the chapter
have been delivered, each chapter will conclude with a Chapter Summary, a set of
Review Questions to help reinforce the main points of the chapter, and one or more
Exercise to allow you to try your hand at applying what was taught in the chapter.
A NOTE ABOUT TOOLS
There are many software tools designed to facilitate data mining, however many of these
are often expensive and complicated to install, configure and use. Simply put, they’re
not a good fit for learning the basics of data mining. This book will use OpenOffice Calc
and Base in conjunction with an open source software product called RapidMiner,
developed by Rapid-I, GmbH of Dortmund, Germany. Because OpenOffice is widely
available and very intuitive, it is a logical place to begin teaching introductory level data
mining concepts. However, it lacks some of the tools data miners like to use. RapidMiner
is an ideal complement to OpenOffice, and was selected for this book for several
reasons:
∙ RapidMiner provides specific data mining functions not currently found in

OpenOffice, such as decision trees and association rules, which you will learn to
use later in this book. ∙ RapidMiner is easy to install and will run on just about any
computer.
∙ RapidMiner’s maker provides a Community Edition of its software, making it
free for readers to obtain and use.
4
∙ Both RapidMiner and OpenOffice provide intuitive graphical user interface

environments which make it easier for general computer-using audiences to the
experience the power of data mining.
All examples using OpenOffice or RapidMiner in this book will be illustrated in a

Microsoft Windows environment, although it should be noted that these software
packages will work on a variety of computing platforms. It is recommended that you
download and install these two software packages on your computer now, so that you
can work along with the examples in the book if you would like.
∙OpenOffice can be downloaded from: http://www.openoffice.org/

∙RapidMiner Community Edition can be downloaded from:
http://rapid-i.com/content/view/26/84/
THE DATA MINING PROCESS
Although data mining’s roots can be traced back to the late 1980s, for most of the 1990s
the field was still in its infancy. Data mining was still being defined, and refined. It was
largely a loose conglomeration of data models, analysis algorithms, and ad hoc outputs.
In 1999, several sizeable companies including auto maker Daimler-Benz, insurance
provider OHRA, hardware and software manufacturer NCR Corp. and statistical
software maker SPSS, Inc. began working together to formalize and standardize an
approach to data mining. The result of their work was CRISP-DM, the CRoss-Industry
Standard Process for Data Mining. Although
the participants in the creation of CRISP-DM certainly had vested interests in certain
software and hardware tools, the process was designed independent of any specific
tool. It was written in such a way as to be conceptual in nature—something that could
be applied independent of any certain tool or kind of data. The process consists of six
steps or phases, as illustrated in Figure 1-1.
5
Data
3. Data
Preparation
6. Deployment 5. Evaluation
4. Modeling
1. Business
Figure 1-1: CRISP-DM Conceptual
Understanding Model.
2. Data
Understanding
CRISP-DM Step 1: Business (Organizational) Understanding
The first step in CRISP-DM is Business Understanding, or what will be referred to in

this text as Organizational Understanding, since organizations of all kinds, not just
businesses, can use data mining to answer questions and solve problems. This step is
crucial to a successful data mining outcome, yet is often overlooked as folks try to dive
right into mining their data. This is natural of course—we are often anxious to generate
some interesting output; we want to find answers. But you wouldn’t begin building a car
without first defining what you want the vehicle to do, and without first designing what
you are going to build. Consider these oft-quoted lines from Lewis Carroll’s Alice’s
Adventures in Wonderland:
"Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?"
"That depends a good deal on where you want to get to," said the Cat.
"I don’t much care where--" said Alice.
"Then it doesn’t matter which way you go," said the Cat.
"--so long as I get SOMEWHERE," Alice added as an explanation.
"Oh, you’re sure to do that," said the Cat, "if you only walk long enough."
Indeed. You can mine data all day long and into the night, but if you don’t know what you
want to know, if you haven’t defined any questions to answer, then the efforts of your
data mining are less likely to be fruitful. Start with high level ideas: What is making my
customers complain so much?
6
How can I increase my per-unit profit margin? How can I anticipate and fix
manufacturing flaws and thus avoid shipping a defective product? From there, you can
begin to develop the more specific questions you want to answer, and this will enable
you to proceed to …
CRISP-DM Step 2: Data Understanding
As with Organizational Understanding, Data Understanding is a preparatory activity,

and sometimes, its value is lost on people. Don’t let its value be lost on you! Years ago
when workers did not have their own computer (or multiple computers) sitting on their
desk (or lap, or in their pocket), data were centralized. If you needed information from a
company’s data store, you could request a report from someone who could query that
information from a central database (or fetch it from a company filing cabinet) and
provide the results to you. The inventions of the personal computer, workstation, laptop,
tablet computer and even smartphone have each triggered moves away from data
centralization. As hard drives became simultaneously larger and cheaper, and as
software like Microsoft Excel and Access became increasingly more accessible and
easier to use, data began to disperse across the enterprise. Over time, valuable data
stores became strewn across hundred and even thousands of devices, sequestered in
marketing managers’ spreadsheets, customer support databases, and human
resources file systems.
As you can imagine, this has created a multi-faceted data problem. Marketing may have
wonderful data that could be a valuable asset to senior management, but senior
management may not be aware of the data’s existence—either because of territorialism
on the part of the marketing department, or because the marketing folks simply haven’t
thought to tell the executives about the data they’ve gathered. The same could be said
of the information sharing, or lack thereof, between almost any two business units in an
organization. In Corporate America lingo, the term ‘silos’ is often invoked to describe the
separation of units to the point where interdepartmental sharing and communication is
almost non-existent. It is unlikely that effective organizational data mining can occur
when employees do not know what data they have (or could have) at their disposal or
where those data are currently located. In chapter two we will take a closer look at some
mechanisms that organizations are using to try bring all their data into a common
location. These include databases, data marts and data warehouses.
Simply centralizing data is not enough however. There are plenty of question that arise
once an organization’s data have been corralled. Where did the data come from? Who
collected them and
7
was there a standard method of collection? What do the various columns and rows of
data mean? Are there acronyms or abbreviations that are unknown or unclear? You may
need to do some research in the Data Preparation phase of your data mining activities.
Sometimes you will need to meet with subject matter experts in various departments to
unravel where certain data came from, how they were collected, and how they have
been coded and stored. It is critically important that you verify the accuracy and reliability
of the data as well. The old adage “It’s better than nothing” does not apply in data mining.
Inaccurate or incomplete data could be worse than nothing in a data mining activity,
because decisions based upon partial or wrong data are likely to be partial or wrong
decisions. Once you have gathered, identified and understood your data assets, then
you may engage in…
CRISP-DM Step 3: Data Preparation
Data come in many shapes and formats. Some data are numeric, some are in
paragraphs of text, and others are in picture form such as charts, graphs and maps.
Some data are anecdotal or narrative, such as comments on a customer satisfaction
survey or the transcript of a witness’s testimony. Data that aren’t in rows or columns of
numbers shouldn’t be dismissed though— sometimes non-traditional data formats can
be the most information rich. We’ll talk in this book about approaches to formatting data,
beginning in Chapter 2. Although rows and columns will be one of our most common
layouts, we’ll also get into text mining where paragraphs can be fed into RapidMiner and
analyzed for patterns as well.
Data Preparation involves a number of activities. These may include joining two or
more data sets together, reducing data sets to only those variables that are interesting
in a given data mining exercise, scrubbing data clean of anomalies such as outlier
observations or missing data, or re formatting data for consistency purposes. For
example, you may have seen a spreadsheet or database that held phone numbers in
many different formats:
(555) 555-5555 555/555-5555
555-555-5555 555.555.5555
555 555 5555 5555555555
Each of these offers the same phone number, but stored in different formats. The
results of a data mining exercise are most likely to yield good, useful results when the
underlying data are as
8
consistent as possible. Data preparation can help to ensure that you improve your
chances of a successful outcome when you begin…
CRISP-DM Step 4: Modeling
A model, in data mining at least, is a computerized representation of real-world

observations. Models are the application of algorithms to seek out, identify, and display
any patterns or messages in your data. There are two basic kinds or types of models in
data mining: those that classify and those that predict.
Figure 1-2: Types of Data Mining Models.
As you can see in Figure 1-2, there is some overlap between the types of models data
mining uses. For example, this book will teaching you about decision trees. Decision
Trees are a predictive model used to determine which attributes of a given data set are
the strongest indicators of a given outcome. The outcome is usually expressed as the
likelihood that an observation will fall into a certain category. Thus, Decision Trees are
predictive in nature, but they also help us to classify our data. This will probably make
more sense when we get to the chapter on Decision Trees, but for now, it’s important
just to understand that models help us to classify and predict based on patterns the
models find in our data.
Models may be simple or complex. They may contain only a single process, or stream,
or they may contain sub-processes. Regardless of their layout, models are where data
mining moves from preparation and understanding to development and interpretation.
We will build a number of example models in this text. Once a model has been built, it
is time for…
9
CRISP-DM Step 5: Evaluation
All analyses of data have the potential for false positives. Even if a model doesn’t yield
false positives however, the model may not find any interesting patterns in your data.
This may be because the model isn’t set up well to find the patterns, you could be using
the wrong technique, or there simply may not be anything interesting in your data for the
model to find. The Evaluation phase of CRISP-DM is there specifically to help you
determine how valuable your model is, and what you might want to do with it.
Evaluation can be accomplished using a number of techniques, both mathematical and
logical in nature. This book will examine techniques for cross-validation and testing for
false positives using RapidMiner. For some models, the power or strength indicated by
certain test statistics will also be discussed. Beyond these measures however, model
evaluation must also include a human aspect. As individuals gain experience and
expertise in their field, they will have operational knowledge which may not be
measurable in a mathematical sense, but is nonetheless indispensable in determining
the value of a data mining model. This human element will also be discussed throughout
the book. Using both data-driven and instinctive evaluation techniques to determine a
model’s usefulness, we can then decide how to move on to…
CRISP-DM Step 6: Deployment
If you have successfully identified your questions, prepared data that can answer those
questions, and created a model that passes the test of being interesting and useful, then
you have arrived at the point of actually using your results. This is deployment, and it
is a happy and busy time for a data miner. Activities in this phase include setting up
automating your model, meeting with consumers of your model’s outputs, integrating
with existing management or operational information systems, feeding new learning
from model use back into the model to improve its accuracy and performance, and
monitoring and measuring the outcomes of model use. Be prepared for a bit of distrust
of your model at first—you may even face pushback from groups who may feel their jobs
are threatened by this new tool, or who may not trust the reliability or accuracy of the
outputs. But don’t let this discourage you! Remember that CBS did not trust the initial
predictions of the UNIVAC, one of the first commercial computer systems, when the
network used it to predict the eventual outcome of the 1952 presidential election on
election night. With only 5% of the votes counted, UNIVAC predicted Dwight D.
Eisenhower would defeat Adlai Stevenson in a landslide;
10
something no pollster or election insider consider likely, or even possible. In fact, most
‘experts’ expected Stevenson to win by a narrow margin, with some acknowledging that
because they expected it to be close, Eisenhower might also prevail in a tight vote. It
was only late that night, when human vote counts confirmed that Eisenhower was
running away with the election, that CBS went on the air to acknowledge first that
Eisenhower had won, and second, that UNIVAC had predicted this very outcome hours
earlier, but network brass had refused to trust the computer’s prediction. UNIVAC was
further vindicated later, when it’s prediction was found to be within 1% of what the
eventually tally showed. New technology is often unsettling to people, and it is hard
sometimes to trust what computers show. Be patient and specific as you explain how a
new data mining model works, what the results mean, and how they can be used.
While the UNIVAC example illustrates the power and utility of predictive computer
modeling (despite inherent mistrust), it should not construed as a reason for blind trust
either. In the days of UNIVAC, the biggest problem was the newness of the technology.
It was doing something no one really expected or could explain, and because few people
understood how the computer worked, it was hard to trust it. Today we face a different
but equally troubling problem: computers have become ubiquitous, and too often, we
don’t question enough whether or not the results are accurate and meaningful. In order
for data mining models to be effectively deployed, balance must be struck. By clearly
communicating a model’s function and utility to stake holders, thoroughly testing and
proving the model, then planning for and monitoring its implementation, data mining
models can be effectively introduced into the organizational flow. Failure to carefully and
effectively manage deployment however can sink even the best and most effective
models.
DATA MINING AND YOU
Because data mining can be applied to such a wide array of professional fields, this book
has been written with the intent of explaining data mining in plain English, using software
tools that are accessible and intuitive to everyone. You may not have studied algorithms,
data structures, or programming, but you may have questions that can be answered
through data mining. It is our hope that by writing in an informal tone and by illustrating
data mining concepts with accessible, logical examples, data mining can become a
useful tool for you regardless of your previous level of data analysis or computing
expertise. Let’s start digging!
11
Chapter 2: Organizational Understanding and Data Understanding
CHAPTER TWO:
ORGANIZATIONAL UNDERSTANDING AND DATA
UNDERSTANDING
CONTEXT AND PERSPECTIVE
Consider some of the activities you’ve been involved with in the past three or four days.
Have you purchased groceries or gasoline? Attended a concert, movie or other public
event? Perhaps you went out to eat at a restaurant, stopped by your local post office to
mail a package, made a purchase online, or placed a phone call to a utility company.
Every day, our lives are filled with interactions – encounters with companies, other
individuals, the government, and various other organizations.
In today’s technology-driven society, many of those encounters involve the transfer of

information electronically. That information is recorded and passed across networks in
order to complete financial transactions, reassign ownership or responsibility, and
enable delivery of goods and services. Think about the amount of data collected each
time even one of these activities occurs.
Take the grocery store for example. If you take items off the shelf, those items will have
to be replenished for future shoppers – perhaps even for yourself – after all you’ll need
to make similar purchases again when that case of cereal runs out in a few weeks. The
grocery store must constantly replenish its supply of inventory, keeping the items people
want in stock while maintaining freshness in the products they sell. It makes sense that
large databases are running behind the scenes, recording data about what you bought
and how much of it, as you check out and pay your grocery bill. All of that data must be
recorded and then reported to someone whose job it is to reorder items for the store’s
inventory.
However, in the world of data mining, simply keeping inventory up-to-date is only the
beginning. Does your grocery store require you to carry a frequent shopper card or
similar device which, when scanned at checkout time, gives you the best price on each
item you’re buying? If so, they
13
can now begin not only keep track of store-wide purchasing trends, but individual
purchasing trends as well. The store can target market to you by sending mailers with
coupons for products you tend to purchase most frequently.
Now let’s take it one step further. Remember, if you can, what types of information you
provided when you filled out the form to receive your frequent shopper card. You
probably indicated your address, date of birth (or at least birth year), whether you’re
male or female, and perhaps the size of your family, annual household income range,
or other such information. Think about the range of possibilities now open to your grocery
store as they analyze that vast amount of data they collect at the cash register each
day:
∙ Using ZIP codes, the store can locate the areas of greatest customer density,
perhaps aiding their decision about the construction location for their next
store.
∙ Using information regarding customer gender, the store may be able to tailor
marketing displays or promotions to the preferences of male or female
customers.
∙ With age information, the store can avoid mailing coupons for baby food to elderly
customers, or promotions for feminine hygiene products to households with a
single male occupant.
These are only a few the many examples of potential uses for data mining. Perhaps as
you read through this introduction, some other potential uses for data mining came to
your mind. You may have also wondered how ethical some of these applications might
be. This text has been designed to help you understand not only the possibilities brought
about through data mining, but also the techniques involved in making those possibilities
a reality while accepting the responsibility that accompanies the collection and use of
such vast amounts of personal information.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
After completing the reading and exercises in this chapter, you should
be able to: ∙ Define the discipline of Data Mining
∙ List and define various types of data
∙ List and define various sources of data
∙ Explain the fundamental differences between databases, data warehouses and data sets
14
∙ Explain some of the ethical dilemmas associated with data mining and outline
possible solutions
PURPOSES, INTENTS AND LIMITATIONS OF DATA MINING
Data mining, as explained in Chapter 1 of this text, applies statistical and logical methods
to large data sets. These methods can be used to categorize the data, or they can be
used to create predictive models. Categorizations of large sets may include grouping
people into similar types of classifications, or in identifying similar characteristics across
a large number of observations.
Predictive models however, transform these descriptions into expectations upon which
we can base decisions. For example, the owner of a book-selling Web site could project
how frequently she may need to restock her supply of a given title, or the owner of a ski
resort may attempt to predict the earliest possible opening date based on projected
snow arrivals and accumulations.
It is important to recognize that data mining cannot provide answers to every question,
nor can we expect that predictive models will always yield results which will in fact turn
out to be the reality. Data mining is limited to the data that has been collected. And those
limitations may be many. We must remember that the data may not be completely
representative of the group of individuals to which we would like to apply our results.
The data may have been collected incorrectly, or it may be out-of-date. There is an
expression which can adequately be applied to data mining, among many other things:
GIGO, or Garbage In, Garbage Out. The quality of our data mining results will directly
depend upon the quality of our data collection and organization. Even after doing our
very best to collect high quality data, we must still remember to base decisions not only
on data mining results, but also on available resources, acceptable amounts of risk, and
plain old common sense.
DATABASE, DATA WAREHOUSE, DATA MART, DATA SET…?
In order to understand data mining, it is important to understand the nature of databases,

data collection and data organization. This is fundamental to the discipline of Data
Mining, and will directly impact the quality and reliability of all data mining activities. In
this section, we will
15
examine the differences between databases, data warehouses, and data sets. We
will also examine some of the variations in terminology used to describe data
attributes.
Although we will be examining the differences between databases, data warehouses and
data sets, we will begin by discussing what they have in common. In Figure 2-1, we see
some data organized into rows (shown here as A, B, etc.) and columns (shown here
as 1, 2, etc.). In varying data environments, these may be referred to by differing names.
In a database, rows would be referred to as tuples or records, while the columns would
be referred to as fields.
Figure 2-1: Data arranged in columns and rows.
In data warehouses and data sets, rows are sometimes referred to as observations,
examples or cases, and columns are sometimes called variables or attributes. For
purposes of consistency in this book, we will use the terminology of observations for
rows and attributes for columns. It is important to note that RapidMiner will use the
term examples for rows of data, so keep this in mind throughout the rest of the text.
A database is an organized grouping of information within a specific structure. Database

containers, such as the one pictured in Figure 2-2, are called tables in a database
environment. Most databases in use today are relational databases—they are
designed using many tables which relate to one another in a logical fashion. Relational
databases generally contain dozens or even hundreds of tables, depending upon the
size of the organization.
16
Chapter 2: Organizational Understanding and Data
Understanding
Figure 2-2: A simple database with a relation between two tables.
Figure 2-2 depicts a relational database environment with two tables. The first table
contains information about pet owners; the second, information about pets. The tables
are related by the single column they have in common: Owner_ID. By relating tables to
one another, we can reduce redundancy of data and improve database performance.
The process of breaking tables apart and thereby reducing data redundancy is called
normalization.
Most relational databases which are designed to handle a high number of reads and
writes (updates and retrievals of information) are referred to as OLTP (online
transaction processing) systems. OLTP systems are very efficient for high volume
activities such as cashiering, where many items are being recorded via bar code
scanners in a very short period of time. However, using OLTP databases for analysis is
generally not very efficient, because in order to retrieve data from multiple tables at the
same time, a query containing joins must be written. A query is simple a method of
retrieving data from database tables for viewing. Queries are usually written in a
language called SQL (Structured Query Language; pronounced ‘sequel’). Because
it is not very useful to only query pet names or owner names, for example, we must join
two or more tables together in order to retrieve both pets and owners at the same time.
Joining requires that the computer match the Owner_ID column in the Owners table to
the Owner_ID column in the Pets table. When tables contain thousands or even millions
of rows of data, this matching process can be very intensive and time consuming on
even the most robust computers.
For much more on database design and management, check out geekgirls.com:
(http://www.geekgirls.com/ menu_databases.htm).
17
In order to keep our transactional databases running quickly and smoothly, we may wish
to create a data warehouse. A data warehouse is a type of large database that has
been denormalized and archived. Denormalization is the process of intentionally
combining some tables into a single table in spite of the fact that this may introduce
duplicate data in some columns (or in other words, attributes).
Figure 2-3: A combination of the tables into a single data set.
Figure 2-3 depicts what our simple example data might look like if it were in a data
warehouse. When we design databases in this way, we reduce the number of joins
necessary to query related data, thereby speeding up the process of analyzing our data.
Databases designed in this manner are called OLAP (online analytical processing)
systems.
Transactional systems and analytical systems have conflicting purposes when it comes
to database speed and performance. For this reason, it is difficult to design a single
system which will serve both purposes. This is why data warehouses generally contain
archived data. Archived data are data that have been copied out of a transactional
database. Denormalization typically takes place at the time data are copied out of the
transactional system. It is important to keep in mind that if a copy of the data is made in
the data warehouse, the data may become out-of-synch. This happens when a copy is
made in the data warehouse and then later, a change to the original record
(observation) is made in the source database. Data mining activities performed on out-
of-synch observations may be useless, or worse, misleading. An alternative archiving
method would be to move the data out of the transactional system. This ensures that
data won’t get out-of-synch, however, it also makes the data unavailable should a user
of the transactional system need to view or update it.
A data set is a subset of a database or a data warehouse. It is usually denormalized so

that only one table is used. The creation of a data set may contain several steps,
including appending or combining tables from source database tables, or simplifying
some data expressions. One example of this may be changing a date/time format from
‘10-DEC-2002 12:21:56’ to ‘12/10/02’. If this
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latter date format is adequate for the type of data mining being performed, it would make
sense to simplify the attribute containing dates and times when we create our data set.
Data sets may be made up of a representative sample of a larger set of data, or they
may contain all observations relevant to a specific group. We will discuss sampling
methods and practices in Chapter 3.
TYPES OF DATA
Thus far in this text, you’ve read about some fundamental aspects of data which are
critical to the discipline of data mining. But we haven’t spent much time discussing where
that data are going to come from. In essence, there are really two types of data that can
be mined: operational and organizational.
The most elemental type of data, operational data, comes from transactional systems
which record everyday activities. Simple encounters like buying gasoline, making an
online purchase, or checking in for a flight at the airport all result in the creation of
operational data. The times, prices and descriptions of the goods or services we have
purchased are all recorded. This information can be combined in a data warehouse or
may be extracted directly into a data set from the OLTP system.
Often times, transactional data is too detailed to be of much use, or the detail may
compromise individuals’ privacy. In many instances, government, academic or not-for-
profit organizations may create data sets and then make them available to the public.
For example, if we wanted to identify regions of the United States which are historically
at high risk for influenza, it would be difficult to obtain permission and to collect doctor
visit records nationwide and compile this information into a meaningful data set.
However, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCP), do exactly that
every year. Government agencies do not always make this information immediately
available to the general public, but it often can be requested. Other organizations create
such summary data as well. The grocery store mentioned at the beginning of this chapter
wouldn’t necessarily want to analyze records of individual cans of greens beans sold,
but they may want to watch trends for daily, weekly or perhaps monthly totals.
Organizational data sets can help to protect peoples’ privacy, while still proving useful
to data miners watching for trends in a given population.
19
Another type of data often overlooked within organizations is something called a data
mart. A data mart is an organizational data store, similar to a data warehouse, but often
created in conjunction with business units’ needs in mind, such as Marketing or
Customer Service, for reporting and management purposes. Data marts are usually
intentionally created by an organization to be a type of one-stop shop for employees
throughout the organization to find data they might be looking for. Data marts may
contain wonderful data, prime for data mining activities, but they must be known, current,
and accurate to be useful. They should also be well managed in terms of privacy and
security.
All of these types of organizational data carry with them some concern. Because they
are secondary, meaning they have been derived from other more detailed primary data
sources, they may lack adequate documentation, and the rigor with which they were
created can be highly variable. Such data sources may also not be intended for general
distribution, and it is always wise to ensure proper permission is obtained before
engaging in data mining activities on any data set. Remember, simply because a data
set may have been acquired from the Internet does not mean it is in the public domain;
and simply because a data set may exist within your organization does not mean it can
be freely mined. Checking with relevant managers, authors and stakeholders is critical
before beginning data mining activities.
A NOTE ABOUT PRIVACY AND SECURITY
In 2003, JetBlue Airlines supplied more than one million passenger records to a U.S.
government contractor, Torch Concepts. Torch then subsequently augmented the
passenger data with additional information such as family sizes and social security
numbers—information purchased from a data broker called Acxiom. The data were
intended for a data mining project in order to develop potential terrorist profiles. All of
this was done without notification or consent of passengers. When news of the activities
got out however, dozens of privacy lawsuits were filed against JetBlue, Torch and
Acxiom, and several U.S. senators called for an investigation into the incident.
This incident serves several valuable purposes for this book. First, we should be aware
that as we gather, organize and analyze data, there are real people behind the figures.
These people have certain rights to privacy and protection against crimes such as
identity theft. We as data miners
20
have an ethical obligation to protect these individuals’ rights. This requires the utmost
care in terms of information security. Simply because a government representative or
contractor asks for data does not mean it should be given.
Beyond technological security however, we must also consider our moral obligation to
those individuals behind the numbers. Recall the grocery store shopping card example
given at the beginning of this chapter. In order to encourage use of frequent shopper
cards, grocery stores frequently list two prices for items, one with use of the card and
one without. For each individual, the answer to this question may vary, however, answer
it for yourself: At what price mark-up has the grocery store crossed an ethical line
between encouraging consumers to participate in frequent shopper programs, and
forcing them to participate in order to afford to buy groceries? Again, your answer will
be unique from others’, however it is important to keep such moral obligations in mind
when gathering, storing and mining data.
The objectives hoped for through data mining activities should never justify unethical
means of achievement. Data mining can be a powerful tool for customer relationship
management, marketing, operations management, and production, however in all cases
the human element must be kept sharply in focus. When working long hours at a data
mining task, interacting primarily with hardware, software, and numbers, it can be easy
to forget about the people, and therefore it is so emphasized here.
CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has introduced you to the discipline of data mining. Data mining brings
statistical and logical methods of analysis to large data sets for the purposes of
describing them and using them to create predictive models. Databases, data
warehouses and data sets are all unique kinds of digital record keeping systems,
however, they do share many similarities. Data mining is generally most effectively
executed on data data sets, extracted from OLAP, rather than OLTP systems. Both
operational data and organizational data provide good starting points for data mining
activities, however both come with their own issues that may inhibit quality data mining
activities. These should be mitigated before beginning to mine the data. Finally, when
mining data, it is critical to remember the human factor behind manipulation of numbers
and figures. Data miners have an ethical responsibility to the individuals whose lives
may be affected by the decisions that are made as a result of data mining activities.
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REVIEW QUESTIONS
1) What is data mining in general terms?
2) What is the difference between a database, a data warehouse and a data set?
3) What are some of the limitations of data mining? How can we address those
limitations?
4) What is the difference between operational and organizational data? What are
the pros and cons of each?
5) What are some of the ethical issues we face in data mining? How can they be
addressed? 6) What is meant by out-of-synch data? How can this situation be

remedied?
7) What is normalization? What are some reasons why it is a good thing in OLTP
systems, but not so good in OLAP systems?
EXERCISES
1) Design a relational database with at least three tables. Be sure to create the
columns necessary within each table to relate the tables to one another.
2) Design a data warehouse table with some columns which would usually be
normalized. Explain why it makes sense to denormalize in a data warehouse.
3) Perform an Internet search to find information about data security and privacy. List
three web sites that you found that provided information that could be applied to
data mining. Explain how it might be applied.
4) Find a newspaper, magazine or Internet news article related to information

privacy or security. Summarize the article and explain how it might be related to
data mining.
22
5) Using the Internet, locate a data set which is available for download. Describe the
data set (contents, purpose, size, age, etc.). Classify the data set as operational
or organizational. Summarize any requirements placed on individuals who may
wish to use the data set.
6) Obtain a copy of an application for a grocery store shopping card. Summarize the
type of data requested when filling out the application. Give an example of how
that data may aid in a data mining activity. What privacy concerns arise regarding
the data being collected?
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Chapter 3: Data Preparation
CHAPTER THREE:
DATA PREPARATION
Jerry is the marketing manager for a small Internet design and advertising firm. Jerry’s
boss asks him to develop a data set containing information about Internet users. The
company will use this data to determine what kinds of people are using the Internet and
how the firm may be able to market their services to this group of users.
To accomplish his assignment, Jerry creates an online survey and places links to the
survey on several popular Web sites. Within two weeks, Jerry has collected enough data
to begin analysis, but he finds that his data needs to be denormalized. He also notes
that some observations in the set are missing values or they appear to contain invalid
values. Jerry realizes that some additional work on the data needs to take place before
analysis begins.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
be able to: ∙ Explain the concept and purpose of data scrubbing
∙ List possible solutions for handling missing data
∙ Explain the role and perform basic methods for data reduction
∙ Define and handle inconsistent data
∙ Discuss the important and process of attribute reduction
APPLYING THE CRISP DATA MINING MODEL
Recall from Chapter 1 that the CRISP Data Mining methodology requires three phases
before any actual data mining models are constructed. In the Context and Perspective
paragraphs above, Jerry
25
has a number of tasks before him, each of which fall into one of the first three phases of
CRISP. First, Jerry must ensure that he has developed a clear Organizational
Understanding. What is the purpose of this project for his employer? Why is he
surveying Internet users? Which data points are important to collect, which would be
nice to have, and which would be irrelevant or even distracting to the project? Once the
data are collected, who will have access to the data set and through what mechanisms?
How will the business ensure privacy is protected? All of these questions, and perhaps
others, should be answered before Jerry even creates the survey mentioned in the
second paragraph above.
Once answered, Jerry can then begin to craft his survey. This is where Data
Understanding enters the process. What database system will he use? What survey
software? Will he use a publicly available tool like SurveyMonkey™, a commercial
product, or something homegrown? If he uses publicly available tool, how will he access
and extract data for mining? Can he trust this third-party to secure his data and if so,
why? How will the underlying database be designed? What mechanisms will be put in
place to ensure consistency and integrity in the data? These are all questions of data
understanding. An easy example of ensuring consistency might be if a person’s home
city were to be collected as part of the data. If the online survey just provides an open
text box for entry, respondents could put just about anything as their home city. They
might put New York, NY, N.Y., Nwe York, or any number of other possible combinations,
including typos. This could be avoided by forcing users to select their home city from a
dropdown menu, but considering the number cities there are in most countries, that list
could be unacceptably long! So the choice of how to handle this potential data
consistency problem isn’t necessarily an obvious or easy one, and this is just one of
many data points to be collected. While ‘home state’ or ‘country’ may be reasonable to
constrain to a dropdown, ‘city’ may have to be entered freehand into a textbox, with
some sort of data correction process to be applied later.
The ‘later’ would come once the survey has been developed and deployed, and data
have been collected. With the data in place, the third CRISP-DM phase, Data
Preparation, can begin. If you haven’t installed OpenOffice and RapidMiner yet, and
you want to work along with the examples given in the rest of the book, now would be a
good time to go ahead and install these applications. Remember that both are freely
available for download and installation via the Internet, and the links to both applications
are given in Chapter 1. We’ll begin by doing some data preparation in OpenOffice Base
(the database application), OpenOffice Calc (the spreadsheet application), and then
move on to other data preparation tools in RapidMiner. You should
26
understand that the examples of data preparation in this book are only a subset of
possible data preparation approaches.
COLLATION
Suppose that the database underlying Jerry’s Internet survey is designed as depicted
in the screenshot from OpenOffice Base in Figure 3-1.
Figure 3-1: A simple relational (one-to-one) database for Internet survey data.
This design would enable Jerry to collect data about people in one table, and data about
their Internet behaviors in another. RapidMiner would be able to connect to either of
these tables in order to mine the responses, but what if Jerry were interested in mining
data from both tables at once?
One simple way to collate data in multiple tables into a single location for data mining is
to create a database view. A view is a type of pseudo-table, created by writing a SQL
statement which is named and stored in the database. Figure 3-2 shows the creation of
a view in OpenOffice Base, while Figure 3-3 shows the view in datasheet view.
27
Figure 3-2: Creation of a view in OpenOffice Base.
Figure 3-3: Results of the view from Figure 3-2 in datasheet view.
The creation of views is one way that data from a relational database can be collated
and organized in preparation for data mining activities. In this example, although the
personal information in the ‘Respondents’ table is only stored once in the database, it is
displayed for each record in the ‘Responses’ table, creating a data set that is more easily
mined because it is both richer in information and consistent in its formatting.
DATA SCRUBBING
In spite of our very best efforts to maintain quality and integrity during data collection, it
is inevitable that some anomalies will be introduced into our data at some point. The
process of data scrubbing allows us to handle these anomalies in ways that make sense
for us. In the remainder of this chapter, we will examine data scrubbing in four different
ways: handling missing data, reducing data (observations), handling inconsistent data,
and reducing attributes.
28
HANDS ON EXERCISE
Starting now, and throughout the next chapters of this book, there will be opportunities
for you to put your hands on your computer and follow along. In order to do this, you will
need to be sure to install OpenOffice and RapidMiner, as was discussed in the section
A Note about Tools in Chapter 1. You will also need to have an Internet connection to
access this book’s companion web site, where copies of all data sets used in the chapter
exercises are available. The companion web site is located at:
https://sites.google.com/site/dataminingforthemasse
s/
Figure 3-4. Data Mining for the Masses companion web site.
You can download the Chapter 3 data set, which is an export of the view created in
OpenOffice Base, from the web site by locating it in the list of files and then clicking the
down arrow to the far right of the file name, as indicated by the black arrows in Figure 3-
4 You may want to consider creating a folder labeled ‘data mining’ or something similar
where you can keep copies of your data—more files will be required and created as we
continue through the rest of the book, especially when we get into building data mining
models in RapidMiner. Having a central place to keep everything together will simplify
things, and upon your first launch of the RapidMiner software, you’ll be prompted to
create a repository, so it’s a good idea to have a space ready. Once
29
you’ve downloaded the Chapter 3 data set, you’re ready to begin learning how to
handle and prepare data for mining in RapidMiner.
PREPARING RAPIDMINER, IMPORTING DATA, AND

HANDLING MISSING DATA
Our first task in data preparation is to handle missing data, however, because this will
be our first time using RapidMiner, the first few steps will involve getting RapidMiner set
up. We’ll then move straight into handling missing data. Missing data are data that do
not exist in a data set. As you can see in Figure 3-5, missing data is not the same as
zero or some other value. It is blank, and the value is unknown. Missing data are also
sometimes known in the database world as null. Depending on your objective in data
mining, you may choose to leave missing data as they are, or you may wish to replace
missing data with some other value.
Figure 3-5: Some missing data within the survey data set.
The creation of views is one way that data from a relational database can be collated
and organized in preparation for data mining activities. In this example, our database
view has missing data in a number of its attributes. Black arrows indicate a couple of
these attributes in Figure 3-5 above. In some instances, missing data are not a problem,
they are expected. For example, in the Other Social Network attribute, it is entirely
possible that the survey respondent did not indicate that they use social networking sites
other than the ones proscribed in the survey. Thus, missing data are probably accurate
and acceptable. On the other hand, in the Online Gaming attribute, there are answers
of either ‘Y’ or ‘N’, indicating that the respondent either does, or does not participate in
online gaming. But what do the missing, or null values in this attribute indicate? It is
unknown to us. For the purposes of data mining, there are a number of options available
for handling missing data.
To learn about handling missing data in RapidMiner, follow the steps below to connect
to your data set and begin modifying it:
30
1) Launch the RapidMiner application. This can be done by double clicking your
desktop icon or by finding it in your application menu. The first time RapidMiner is
launched, you will get the message depicted in Figure 3-6. Click OK to set up a
repository.
Figure 3-6. The prompt to create an initial data repository for RapidMiner to use.
2) For most purposes (and for all examples in this book), a local repository will be
sufficient. Click OK to accept the default option as depicted in Figure 3-7.
Figure 3-7. Setting up a local data repository.
3) In the example given in Figure 3-8, we have named our repository

‘RapidMinerBook, and pointed it to our data folder, RapidMiner Data, which is
found on our E: drive. Use the folder icon to browse and find the folder or directory
you created for storing your RapidMiner data sets. Then click Finish.
31
Figure 3-8. Setting the repository name and directory.
4) You may get a notice that updates are available. If this is the case, go ahead and
accept the option to update, where you will be presented with a window similar
to Figure 3-9. Take advantage of the opportunity to add in the Text Mining module
(indicated by the black arrow), since Chapter 12 will deal with Text Mining. Double
click the check box to add a green check mark indicating that you wish to install
or update the module, then click Install.
32
Figure 3-9. Installing updates and adding the Text Mining module.
5) Once the updates and installations are complete, RapidMiner will open and your
window should look like Figure 3-10:
Figure 3-10. The RapidMiner start screen.
33
6) Next we will need to start a new data mining project in RapidMiner. To do this we
click on the ‘New’ icon as indicated by the black arrow in Figure 3-10. The
resulting window should look like Figure 3-11.
Figure 3-11. Getting started with a new project in RapidMiner.
7) Within RapidMiner there are two main areas that hold useful tools: Repositories
and Operators. These are accessed by the tabs indicated by the black arrow in
Figure 3-11. The Repositories area is the place where you will connect to each
data set you wish to mine. The Operators area is where all data mining tools are
located. These are used to build models and otherwise manipulate data sets.
Click on Repositories. You will find that the initial repository we created upon our
first launch of the RapidMiner software is present in the list.
34
Figure 3-12. Adding a data set to a repository in RapidMiner.
8) Because the focus of this book is to introduce data mining to the broadest possible
audience, we will not use all of the tools available in RapidMiner. At this point, we
could do a number of complicated and technical things, such as connecting to a
remote enterprise database. This however would likely be overwhelming and
inaccessible to many readers. For the purposes of this text, we will therefore only
be connecting to comma separate values (CSV) files. You should know that
most data mining projects incorporate extremely large data sets encompassing
dozens of attributes and thousands or even millions of observations. We will use
smaller data sets in this text, but the foundational concepts illustrated are the
same for large or small data. The Chapter 3 data set downloaded from the
companion web site is very small, comprised of only 15 attributes and 11
observations. Our next step is to connect to this data set. Click on the Import icon,
which is the second icon from the left in the Repositories area, as indicated by the
black arrow in Figure 3-12.
35
Figure 3-13. Importing a CSV file.
9) You will see by the black arrow in Figure 3-13 that you can import from a number
of different data sources. Note that by importing, you are bringing your data into
a RapidMiner file, rather than working with data that are already stored
elsewhere. If your data set is extremely large, it may take some time to import
the data, and you should be mindful of disk space that is available to you. As data
sets grow, you may be better off using the first (leftmost) icon to set up a remote
repository in order to work with data already stored in other areas. As previously
explained, all examples in this text will be conducted by importing CSV files that
are small enough to work with quickly and easily. Click on the Import CSV File
option.
36
Figure 3-14. Locating the data set to import.
10) When the data import wizard opens, navigate to the folder where your data set is
stored and select the file. In this example, only one file is visible: the Chapter 3
data set downloaded from the companion web site. Click Next.
Figure 3-15. Configuring attribute separation.

37
11) By default, RapidMiner looks for semicolons as attribute separators in our data.
We must change the column separation delimiter to be Comma, in order to be
able to see each attribute separated correctly. Note: If your data naturally contain
commas, then you should be careful as you are collecting or collating your data
to use a delimiter that does not naturally occur in the data. A semicolon or a pipe
(|) symbol can often help you avoid unintended column separation.
Figure 3-16. A preview of attributes separated into columns

with the Comma option selected.
12) Once the preview shows columns for each attribute, click Next. Note that
RapidMiner has treated our attribute names as if they are our first row of data, or
in other words, our first observation. To fix this, click the Annotation dropdown
box next to this row and set it to Name, as indicated in Figure 3-17. With the
attribute names designated correctly, click Next.
38
Figure 3-17. Setting the attribute names.
13) In step 4 of the data import wizard, RapidMiner will take its best guess at a data
type for each attribute. The data type is the kind of data an attribute holds, such
as numeric, text or date. These can be changed in this screen, but for our
purposes in Chapter 3, we will accept the defaults. Just below each attribute’s
data type, RapidMiner also indicates a Role for each attribute to play. By default,
all columns are imported simply with the role of ‘attribute’, however we can
change these here if we know that one attribute is going to play a specific role in
a data mining model that we will create. Since roles can be set within
RapidMiner’s main process window when building data mining models, we will
accept the default of ‘attribute’ whenever we import data sets in exercises in this
text. Also, you may note that the check boxes above each attribute in this window
allow you to not import some of the attributes if you don’t want to. This is
accomplished by simply clearing the checkbox. Again, attributes can be excluded
from models later, so for the purposes of this text, we will always include all
attributes when importing data. All of these functions are indicated by the black
arrows in Figure 3-18. Go ahead and accept these defaults as they stand and
click Next.
39
Figure 3-18. Setting data types, roles and import attributes.
14) The final step is to choose a repository to store the data set in, and to give the
data set a name within RapidMiner. In Figure 3-19, we have chosen to store the
data set in the RapidMiner Book repository, and given it the name Chapter3.
Once we click Finish, this data set will become available to us for any type of data
mining process we would like to build upon it.
Figure 3-19. Selecting the repository and setting a data set name
for our imported CSV file.
40
15) We can now see that the data set is available for use in RapidMiner. To begin
using it in a RapidMiner data mining process, simply drag the data set and drop
it in the Main Process window, as has been done in Figure 3-20.
Figure 3-20. Adding a data set to a process in RapidMiner.
16) Each rectangle in a process in RapidMiner is an operator. The Retrieve operator

simply gets a data set and makes it available for use. The small half-circles on
the sides of the operator, and of the Main Process window, are called ports. In
Figure 3-20, an output (out) port from our data set’s Retrieve operator is
connected to a result set (res) port via a spline. The splines, combined with the
operators connected by them, constitute a data mining stream. To run a data
mining stream and see the results, click the blue, triangular Play button in the
toolbar at the top of the RapidMiner window. This will change your view from
Design Perspective, which is the view pictured in Figure 3-20 where you can
change your data mining stream, to Results Perspective, which shows your
stream’s results, as pictured in Figure 3-21. When you hit the Play button, you
may be prompted to save your process, and you are encouraged to do so.
RapidMiner may also ask you if you wish to overwrite a saved process each time
it is run, and you can select your preference on this prompt as well.
41
Figure 3-21. Results perspective for the Chapter3 data set.
17) You can toggle between design and results perspectives using the two icons
indicated by the black arrows in Figure 3-21. As you can see, there is a rich set
of information in results perspective. In the meta data view, basic descriptive
statistics are given. It is here that we can also get a sense for the number of
observations that have missing values in each attribute of the data set. The
columns in meta data view can be stretched to make their contents more
readable. This is accomplished by hovering your mouse over the faint vertical
gray bars between each column, then clicking and dragging to make them wider.
The information presented here can be very helpful in deciding where missing
data are located, and what to do about it. Take for example the Online_Gaming
attribute. The results perspective shows us that we have six ‘N’ responses in that
attribute, two ‘Y’ responses, and three missing. We could use the mode, or most
common response to replace the missing values. This of course assumes that
the most common response is accurate for all observations, and this may not be
accurate. As data miners, we must be responsible for thinking about each change
we make in our data, and whether or not we threaten the integrity of our data by
making that change. In some instances the consequences could be drastic.
Consider, for instance, if the mode for an attribute of Felony_Conviction were ‘Y’.
Would we really want to convert all missing values in this attribute to ‘Y’ simply
because that is the mode in our data set? Probably not; the
42
implications about the persons represented in each observation of our data set
would be unfair and misrepresentative. Thus, we will change the missing values
in the current example to illustrate how to handle missing values in RapidMiner,
recognizing that what we are about to do won’t always be the right way to handle
missing data. In order to have RapidMiner handle the change from missing to ‘N’
for the three observations in our Online_Gaming variable, click the design
perspective icon.
Figure 3-22. Finding an operator to handle missing values.
18) In order to find a tool in the Operators area, you can navigate through the folder
tree in the lower left hand corner. RapidMiner offers many tools, and sometimes,
finding the one you want can be tricky. There is a handy search box, indicated by
the black arrow in Figure 3-22, that allows you to type in key words to find tools
that might do what you need. Type the word ‘missing’ into this box, and you will
see that RapidMiner automatically searches for tools with this word in their name.
We want to replace missing values, and we can see that within the Data
Transformation tool area, inside a sub-area called Value Modification, there is an
operator called Replace Missing Values. Let’s add this operator to our stream.
Click and hold on the operator name, and drag it up to your spline. When you
point your mouse cursor on the spline, the spline will turn slightly bold, indicating
that when you let go of your mouse button, the operator will be connected into
the stream. If you let go and the Replace Missing Values operator fails to connect
into your stream, you can reconfigure
43
your splines manually. Simply click on the out port in your Retrieve operator, and
then click on the exa port on the Replace Missing Values operator. Exa stands
for example set, and remember that ‘examples’ is the word RapidMiner uses for
observations in a data set. Be sure the exa port from the Replace Missing Values
operator is connected to your result set (res) port so that when you run your
process, you will have output. Your model should now look similar to Figure 3-
23.
Figure 3-23. Adding a missing value operator to the stream.
19) When an operator is selected in RapidMiner, it has an orange rectangle around

it. This will also enable you to modify that operator’s parameters, or properties.
The Parameters pane is located on the right side of the RapidMiner window, as
indicated by the black arrow in Figure 3-23. For this exercise, we have decided
to change all missing values in the Online_Gaming attribute to be ‘N’, since this
is the most common response in that attribute. To do this, change the ‘attribute
filter type’ to ‘single’, and you will see that a dropdown box appears, allowing you
to choose the Online_Gaming attribute as the target for modification. Next,
expand the ‘default’ dropdown box, and select ‘value’, which will cause a
‘replenishment value’ box to appear. Type the replacement value ‘N’ in this box.
Note that you may need to expand your RapidMiner window, or use the vertical
scroll bar on the left of the Parameters pane in order to see all options, as the
options change based on what you have selected. When you are finished, your
parameters should look like the
44
ones in Figure 3-24. Parameter settings that were changed are highlighted with
black arrows.
Figure 3-24. Missing value parameters.
20) You should understand that there are many other options available to you in the
parameters pane. We will not explore all of them here, but feel free to experiment
with them. For example, instead of changing a single attribute at a time, you could
change a subset of the attributes in your data set. You will learn much about the
flexibility and power of RapidMiner by trying out different tools and features. When
you have your parameter set, click the play button. This will run your process and
switch you to results perspective once again. Your results should look like Figure
3-25.
45
Figure 3-25. Results of changing missing data.
21) You can see now that the Online_Gaming attribute has been moved to the top of
our list, and that there are zero missing values. Click on the Data View radio
button, above and to the left hand side of the attribute list to see your data in a
spreadsheet-type view. You will see that the Online_Gaming variable is now
populated with only ‘Y’ and ‘N’ values. We have successfully replaced all missing
values in that attribute. While in Data View, take note of how missing values are
annotated in other variables, Online_Shopping for example. A question mark (?)
denotes a missing value in an observation. Suppose that for this variable, we do
not wish to replace the null values with the mode, but rather, that we wish to
remove those observations from our data set prior to mining it. This is
accomplished through data reduction.
DATA REDUCTION
Go ahead and switch back to design perspective. The next set of steps will teach you
to reduce the number of observations in your data set through the process of filtering.
1) In the search box within the Operators tab, type in the word ‘filter’. This will help
you locate the ‘Filter Examples’ operator, which is what we will use in this
example. Drag the
46
Filter Examples operator over and connect it into your stream, right after the
Replace Missing Values operator. Your window will look like Figure 3-26.
Figure 3-26. Adding a filter to the stream.
2) In the condition class, choose ‘attribute_value_filter’, and for the parameter_string,

type the following: Online_Shopping=. Be sure to include the period. This
parameter string refers to our attribute, Online_Shopping, and it tells RapidMiner
to filter out all observations where the value in that attribute is missing. This is a
bit confusing, because in Data View in results perspective, missings are denoted
by a question mark (?), but when entering the parameter string, missings are
denoted by a period (.). Once you’ve typed these parameter values in, your
screen will look like Figure 3-27.
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Figure 3-27. Adding observation filter parameters.
Go ahead and run your model by clicking the play button. In results perspective, you will
now see that your data set has been reduced from eleven observations (or examples)
to nine. This is because the two observations where the Online_Shopping attribute had
a missing value have been removed. You’ll be able to see that they’re gone by selecting
the Data View radio button. They have not been deleted from the original source data,
they are simply removed from the data set at the point in the stream where the filter
operator is located and will no longer be considered in any downstream data mining
operations. In instances where the missing value cannot be safely assumed or
computed, removal of the entire observation is often the best course of action. When
attributes are numeric in nature, such as with ages or number of visits to a certain place,
an arithmetic measure of central tendency, such as mean, median or mode might be
an acceptable replacement for missing values, but in more subjective attributes, such
as whether one is an online shopper or not, you may be better off simply filtering out
observations where the datum is missing. (One cool trick you can try in RapidMiner is
to use the Invert Filter option in design perspective. In this example, if you check that
check box in the parameters pane of the Filter Examples operator, you will keep the
missing observations, and filter out the rest.)
Data mining can be confusing and overwhelming, especially when data sets get large. It
doesn’t have to be though, if we manage our data well. The previous example has shown
how to filter out observations containing undesired data (or missing data) in an attribute,
but we can also reduce data to test out a data mining model on a smaller subset of our
data. This can greatly reduce
48
processing time while testing a model to see if it will work to answer our questions.
Follow the steps below to take a sample of our data set in RapidMiner.
1) Using the search techniques previously demonstrated, use the Operators search
feature to find an operator called ‘Sample’ and add this to your stream. In the
parameters pane, set the sample to be to be a ‘relative’ sample, and then indicate
you want to retain 50% of your observations in the resulting data set by typing .5
into the sample ratio field. Your window should look like Figure 3-28.
Figure 3-28. Taking a 50% random sample of the data set.
2) When you run your model now, you will find that your results only contain four or
five observations, randomly selected from the nine that were remaining after our
filter operator removed records that had missing Online_Shopping values.
Thus you can see that there are many ways, and various reasons to reduce data by
decreasing the number of observations in your data set. We’ll now move on to handling
inconsistent data, but before doing so, it is going to be important to reset our data back
to its original form. While filtering, we removed an observation that we will need in order
to illustrate what inconsistent data is, and to demonstrate how to handle it in RapidMiner.
This is a good time to learn how to remove operators from your stream. Switch back to
design perspective and click on your Sampling operator. Next, right click and choose
Delete, or simply press the Delete key on your
49
keyboard. Delete the Filter Examples operator at this time as well. Note that your spline
that was connected to the res port is also deleted. This is not a problem, you can
reconnect the exa port from the Replace Missing Values operator to the res port, or you
will find that the spline will reappear when you complete the steps under Handling
Inconsistent Data.
HANDLING INCONSISTENT DATA
Inconsistent data is different from missing data. Inconsistent data occurs when a
value does exist, however that value is not valid or meaningful. Refer back to Figure 3-
25, a close up version
of that image is shown here as Figure 3-
29. ?!?!
Figure 3-29. Inconsisten data in the Twitter attribute.
What is that 99 doing there? It seems that the only two valid values for the Twitter
attribute should be ‘Y’ and ‘N’. This is a value that is inconsistent and is therefore
meaningless. As data miners, we can decide if we want to filter this observation out, as
we did with the missing Online_Shopping records, or, we could use an operator
designed to allow us to replace certain values with others.
1) Return to design perspective if you are not already there. Ensure that you have
deleted your sampling and filter operators from your stream, so that your window
looks like Figure 3-30.
Figure 3-30. Returning to a full data set in RapidMiner.
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2) Note that we don’t need to remove the Replace Missing Values operator, because
it is not removing any observations in our data set. It only changes the values in
the Online_Gaming attribute, which won’t affect our next operator. Use the search
feature in the Operators tab to find an operator called Replace. Drag this operator
into your stream. If your splines had been disconnected during the deletion of the
sampling and filtering operators, as is the case in Figure 3-30, you will see that
your splines are automatically reconnected when you add the Replace operator
to the stream.
3) In the parameters pane, change the attribute filter type to single, then indicate
Twitter as the attribute to be modified. In truth, in this data set there is only one
instance of the value 99 across all attributes and observations, so this change to
a single attribute is not actually necessary in this example, but it is good to be
thoughtful and intentional with every step in a data mining process. Most data
sets will be far larger and more complex that the Chapter 3 data set we are
currently working with. In the ‘replace what’ field, type the value 99, since this is
the value we’re looking to replace. Finally, in the ‘replace by’ field, we must decide
what we want to have in the place of the 99. If we leave this field blank, then the
observation will have a missing (?) when we run the model and switch to Data
View in results perspective. We could also choose the mode of ‘N’, and given that
80% of the survey respondents indicated that they did not use Twitter, this would
seem a safe course of action. You may choose the value you would like to use.
For the book’s example, we will enter ‘N’ and then run our model. You can see in
Figure 3-31 that we now have nine values of ‘N’, and two of ‘Y’ for our Twitter
attribute.
Figure 3-31. Replacement of inconsistent value with a consistent one.
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Keep in mind that not all inconsistent data is going to be as easy to handle as replacing
a single value. It would be entirely possible that in addition to the inconsistent value of
99, values of 87, 96, 101, or others could be present in a data set. If this were the case,
it might take multiple replacements and/or missing data operators to prepare the data
set for mining. In numeric data we might also come across data which are accurate, but
which are also statistical outliers. These might also be considered to be inconsistent
data, so an example in a later chapter will illustrate the handling of statistical outliers.
Sometimes data scrubbing can become tedious, but it will ultimately affect the
usefulness of data mining results, so these types of activities are important, and attention
to detail is critical.
ATTRIBUTE REDUCTION
In many data sets, you will find that some attributes are simply irrelevant to answering a
given question. In Chapter 4 we will discuss methods for evaluating correlation, or the
strength of relationships between given attributes. In some instances, you will not know
the extent to which a certain attribute will be useful without statistically assessing that
attribute’s correlation to the other data you will be evaluating. In our process stream in
RapidMiner, we can remove attributes that are not very interesting in terms of answering
a given question without completely deleting them from the data set. Remember, simply
because certain variables in a data set aren’t interesting for answering a certain question
doesn’t mean those variables won’t ever be interesting. This is why we recommended
bringing in all attributes when importing the Chapter 3 data set earlier in this chapter—
uninteresting or irrelevant attributes are easy to exclude within your stream by following
these steps:
1) Return to design perspective. In the operator search field, type Select Attribute.
The Select Attributes operator will appear. Drag it onto the end of your stream so
that it fits between the Replace operator and the result set port. Your window
should look like Figure 3-32.
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Figure 3-32. Selecting a subset of a data set’s attributes.
2) In the Parameters pane, set the attribute filter type to ‘subset’, then click the
Select Attributes button; a window similar to Figure 3-33 will appear.
Figure 3-33. The attribute subset selection window.
53
3) Using the green right and left arrows, you can select which attributes you would
like to keep. Suppose we were going to study the demographics of Internet users.
In this instance, we might select Birth_Year, Gender, Marital_Status, Race, and
perhaps Years_on_Internet, and move them to the right under Selected Attributes
using the right green arrow. You can select more than one attribute at a time by
holding down your control or shift keys (on a Windows computer) while clicking
on the attributes you want to select or deselect. We could then click OK, and
these would be the only attributes we would see in results perspective when we
run our model. All subsequent downstream data mining operations added to our
model will act only upon this subset of our attributes.
CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has introduced you to a number of concepts related to data preparation.
Recall that Data Preparation is the third step in the CRISP-DM process. Once you have
established Organizational Understanding as it relates to your data mining plans, and
developed Data Understanding in terms of what data you need, what data you have,
where it is located, and so forth; you can begin to prepare your data for mining. This has
been the focus of this chapter.
The chapter used a small and very simple data set to help you learn to set up the
RapidMiner data mining environment. You have learned about viewing data sets in
OpenOffice Base, and learned some ways that data sets in relational databases can be
collated. You have also learned about comma separated values (CSV) files.
We have then stepped through adding CSV files to a RapidMiner data repository in order
to handle missing data, reduce data through observation filtering, handle inconsistencies
in data, and reduce the number of attributes in a model. All of these methods will be
used in future chapters to prepare data for modeling.
Data mining is most successful when conducted upon a foundation of well-prepared

data. Recall the quotation from Chapter 1from Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland—which
way you go does not matter very much if you don’t know, or don’t care, where you are
going. Likewise, the value of where you arrive when you complete a data mining exercise
will largely depend upon how well you prepared to get there. Sometimes we hear the
phrase “It’s better than nothing”. Well, in data mining, results gleaned from poorly
prepared data might be “Worse than nothing”, because they
54
may be misleading. Decisions based upon them could lead an organization down a
detrimental and costly path. Learn to value the process of data preparation, and you will
learn to be a better data miner.
REVIEW QUESTIONS
1) What are the four main processes of data preparation discussed in this chapter?
What do they accomplish and why are they important?
2) What are some ways to collate data from a relational database?
3) For what kinds of problems might a data set need to be scrubbed?
4) Why is it often better to perform reductions using operators rather than excluding
attributes or observations as data are imported?
5) What is a data repository in RapidMiner and how is one created?
6) How might inconsistent data cause later trouble in data mining activities?
EXERCISE
1) Locate a data set of any number of attributes and observations. You may have
access to data sets through personal data collection or through your employment,
although if you use an employer’s data, make sure to do so only by permission!
You can also search the Internet for data set libraries. A simple search on the
term ‘data sets’ in your favorite search engine will yield a number of web sites
that offer libraries of data sets that you can use for academic and learning
purposes. Download a data set that looks interesting to you and complete the
following:
2) Format the data set into a CSV file. It may come in this format, or you may need
to open the data in OpenOffice Calc or some similar software, and then use the
File > Save As feature to save your data as a CSV file.
55
3) Import your data into your RapidMiner repository. Save it in the repository as
Chapter3_Exercise.
4) Create a new, blank process stream in RapidMiner and drag your data set into
the process window.
5) Run your process and examine your data set in both meta data view and Data
View. Note if any attributes have missing or inconsistent data.
6) If you found any missing or inconsistent data, use operators to handle these.
Perhaps try browsing through the folder tree in the Operators tab and experiment
with some operators that were not covered in this chapter.
7) Try filtering out some observations based on some attibute’s value, and filter out
some attributes.
8) Document where you found your data set, how you prepared it for import into
RapidMiner, and what data preparation activities you applied to it.
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SECTION TWO: DATA MINING MODELS AND METHODS
57
Chapter 4: Correlation
CHAPTER FOUR:
CORRELATION
Sarah is a regional sales manager for a nationwide supplier of fossil fuels for home
heating. Recent volatility in market prices for heating oil specifically, coupled with wide
variability in the size of each order for home heating oil, has Sarah concerned. She feels
a need to understand the types of behaviors and other factors that may influence the
demand for heating oil in the domestic market. What factors are related to heating oil
usage, and how might she use a knowledge of such factors to better manage her
inventory, and anticipate demand? Sarah believes that data mining can help her begin
to formulate an understanding of these factors and interactions.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
be able to: ∙ Explain what correlation is, and what it isn’t.
∙ Recognize the necessary format for data in order to perform correlation
analysis. ∙ Develop a correlation model in RapidMiner.
∙ Interpret the coefficients in a correlation matrix and explain their significance, if any.
ORGANIZATIONAL UNDERSTANDING
Sarah’s goal is to better understand how her company can succeed in the home heating
oil market. She recognizes that there are many factors that influence heating oil
consumption, and believes that by investigating the relationship between a number of
those factors, she will be able to better monitor and respond to heating oil demand. She
has selected correlation as a way to model the relationship between the factors she
wishes to investigate. Correlation is a statistical measure of how strong the
relationships are between attributes in a data set.
59
DATA UNDERSTANDING
In order to investigate her question, Sarah has enlisted our help in creating a correlation
matrix of six attributes. Working together, using Sarah’s employer’s data resources
which are primarily drawn from the company’s billing database, we create a data set
comprised of the following attributes:
∙ Insulation: This is a density rating, ranging from one to ten, indicating the thickness
of each home’s insulation. A home with a density rating of one is poorly insulated,
while a home with a density of ten has excellent insulation.
∙ Temperature: This is the average outdoor ambient temperature at each home for
the most recent year, measure in degree Fahrenheit.
∙ Heating_Oil: This is the total number of units of heating oil purchased by the
owner of each home in the most recent year.
∙ Num_Occupants: This is the total number of occupants living in each
home. ∙ Avg_Age: This is the average age of those occupants.
∙ Home_Size: This is a rating, on a scale of one to eight, of the home’s overall size.
The higher the number, the larger the home.
DATA PREPARATION
A CSV data set for this chapter’s example is available for download at the book’s
companion web site (https://sites.google.com/site/dataminingforthemasses/). If you
wish to follow along with the example, go ahead and download the
Chapter04DataSet.csv file now and save it into your RapidMiner data folder. Then,
complete the following steps to prepare the data set for correlation mining:
1) Import the Chapter 4 CSV data set into your RapidMiner data repository. Save it
with the name Chapter4. If you need a refresher on how to bring this data set into
your RapidMiner repository, refer to steps 7 through 14 of the Hands On Exercise
in Chapter 3. The steps will be the same, with the exception of which file you
select to import. Import all attributes, and accept the default data types. When
you are finished, your repository should look similar to Figure 4-1.
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Figure 4-1. The chapter four data set added to the author’s RapidMiner Book repository.
2) If your RapidMiner application is not open to a new, blank process window, click
the new process icon, or click File > New to create a new process. Drag your
Chapter4 data set into your main process window. Go ahead and click the run
(play) button to examine the data set’s meta data. If you are prompted, you may
choose to save your new model. For this book’s example, we’ll save the model
as Chapter4_Process.
Figure 4-2. Meta Data view of the chapter four data set.
We can see in Figure 4-2 that our six attributes are shown. There are a total of
1,218 homes represented in the data set. Our data set appears to be very clean,
with no missing values in any of the six attributes, and no inconsistent data
apparent in our ranges or other descriptive statistics. If you wish, you can take a
minute to switch to Data View to familiarize yourself with the data. It feels like
these data are in good shape, and are in no further need of data preparation
operators, so we are ready to move on to…
61
MODELING
3) Switch back to design perspective. On the Operators tab in the lower left hand
corner, use the search box and begin typing in the word correlation. The tool we
are looking for is called Correlation Matrix. You may be able to find it before you
even finish typing the full search term. Once you’ve located it, drag it over into
your process window and drop it into your stream. By default, the exa port will
connect to the res port, but in this chapter’s example we are interested in creating
a matrix of correlation coefficients that we can analyze. Thus, is it important for
you to connect the mat (matrix) port to a res port, as illustrated in Figure 4-3.
Figure 4-3. The addition of a Correlation Matrix to our stream, with the mat
(matrix) port connected to a result set (res) port.
4) Correlation is a relatively simple statistical analysis tool, so there are few

parameters to modify. We will accept the defaults, and run the model. The results
will be similar to Figure 4-4.
Figure 4-4. Results of a Correlation Matrix.

62
5) In Figure 4-4, we have our correlation coefficients in a matrix. Correlation

coefficients are relatively easy to decipher. They are simply a measure of the
strength of the relationship between each possible set of attributes in the data
set. Because we have six attributes in this data set, our matrix is six columns
wide by six rows tall. In the location where an attribute intersects with itself, the
correlation coefficient is ‘1’, because everything compared to itself has a perfectly
matched relationship. All other pairs of attributes will have a correlation coefficient
of less than one. To complicate matters a bit, correlation coefficients can actually
be negative as well, so all correlation coefficients will fall somewhere between -1
and 1. We can see that this is the case in Figure 4-4, and so we can now move
on to the CRISP-DM step of…
EVALUATION
All correlation coefficients between 0 and 1 represent positive correlations, while all
coefficients between 0 and -1 are negative correlations. While this may seem
straightforward, there is an important distinction to be made when interpreting the
matrix’s values. This distinction has to do with the direction of movement between the
two attributes being analyzed. Let’s consider the relationship between the Heating_Oil
consumption attribute, and the Insulation rating level attribute. The coefficient there, as
seen in our matrix in Figure 4-4, is 0.736. This is a positive number, and therefore, a
positive correlation. But what does that mean? Correlations that are positive mean that
as one attribute’s value rises, the other attribute’s value also rises. But, a positive
correlation also means that as one attribute’s value falls, the other’s also falls. Data
analysts sometimes make the mistake in thinking that a negative correlation exists if an
attribute’s values are decreasing, but if its corresponding attribute’s values are also
decreasing, the correlation is still a positive one. This is illustrated in Figure 4-5.
Heating Oil Insulation Heating Oil Insulation

use rises rating also rises use falls rating also falls
Whenever both attribute values move in the same direction, the correlation
is positive. Figure 4-5. Illustration of positive correlations.
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Next, consider the relationship between the Temperature attribute and the Insulation
rating attribute. In our Figure 4-4 matrix, we see that the coefficient there is -0.794. In
this example, the correlation is negative, as illustrated in Figure 4-6.
Temperature Insulation Temperature Insulation

rises rating falls falls rating rises
Whenever attribute values move in opposite directions, the correlation
is negative. Figure 4-6. Illustration of negative correlations.
So correlation coefficients tell us something about the relationship between attributes,

and this is helpful, but they also tell us something about the strength of the correlation.
As previously mentioned, all correlations will fall between 0 and 1 or 0 and -1. The closer
a correlation coefficient is to 1 or to -1, the stronger it is. Figure 4-7 illustrates the
correlation strength along the continuum from -1 to 1.
-1 0 1 -1 ← -0.8 -0.8 ← -0.6 -0.6 ← -0.4 -0.4 ← 0 0 → 0.4 0.4 → 0.6 0.6 → 0.8 0.8 → 1.0
Very Strong No Very
Correlation correlation
Strong Correlation No correlation Strong strong
Correlation Some Some correlation
correlation correlation
Figure 4-7. Correlation strengths between -1 and 1.
RapidMiner attempts to help us recognize correlation strengths through color coding. In

the Figure 4-4 matrix, we can see that some of the cells are tinted with shades of purple
in graduated colors, in order to more strongly highlight those with stronger correlations.
It is important to recognize that these are only general guidelines and not hard-and-fast
rules. A correlation coefficient around .2 does show some interaction between attributes,
even if it is not statistically significant. This should be kept in mind as we proceed to…
64
DEPLOYMENT
The concept of deployment in data mining means doing something with what you’ve
learned from your model; taking some action based upon what your model tells you. In
this chapter’s example, we conducted some basic, exploratory analysis for our fictional
figure, Sarah. There are several possible outcomes from this investigation.
We learned through our investigation, that the two most strongly correlated attributes in
our data set are Heating_Oil and Avg_Age, with a coefficient of 0.848. Thus, we know
that in this data set, as the average age of the occupants in a home increases, so too
does the heating oil usage in that home. What we do not know is why that occurs.
Data analysts often make the mistake of interpreting correlation as causation. The
assumption that correlation proves causation is dangerous and often false.
Consider for a moment the correlation coefficient between Avg_Age and Temperature: -
0.673. Referring back to Figure 4-7, we see that this is considered to be a relatively
strong negative correlation. As the age of a home’s residents increases, the average
temperature outside decreases; and as the temperature rises, the age of the folks inside
goes down. But could the average age of a home’s occupants have any effect on that
home’s average yearly outdoor temperature? Certainly not. If it did, we could control the
temperature by simply moving people of different ages in and out of homes. This of
course is silly. While statistically, there is a correlation between these two attributes in
our data set, there is no logical reason that movement in one causes movement in the
other. The relationship is probably coincidental, but if not, there must be some other
explanation that our model cannot offer. Such limitations must be recognized and
accepted in all data mining deployment decisions.
Another false interpretation about correlations is that the coefficients are percentages,
as if to say that a correlation coefficient of 0.776 between two attributes is an indication
that there is 77.6% shared variability between those two attributes. This is not correct.
While the coefficients do tell a story about the shared variability between attributes, the
underlying mathematical formula used to calculate correlation coefficients solely
measures strength, as indicated by proximity to 1 or -1, of the interaction between
attributes. No percentage is calculated or intended.
65
With these interpretation parameters explained, there may be several things that Sarah
can do in order to take action based upon our model. A few options might include:
∙ Dropping the Num_Occupants attribute. While the number of people living in a home
might logically seem like a variable that would influence energy usage, in our
model it did not correlate in any significant way with anything else. Sometimes
there are attributes that don’t turn out to be very interesting.
∙ Investigating the role of home insulation. The Insulation rating attribute was fairly
strongly correlated with a number of other attributes. There may be some
opportunity there to partner with a company (or start one…?) that specializes in
adding insulation to existing homes. If she is interested in contributing to
conservation, working on a marketing promotion to show the benefits of adding
insulation to a home might be a good course of action, however if she wishes to
continue to sell as much heating oil as she can, she may feel conflicted about
participating in such a campaign.
∙ Adding greater granularity in the data set. This data set has yielded some interesting
results, but frankly, it’s pretty general. We have used average yearly temperatures
and total annual number of heating oil units in this model. But we also know that
temperatures fluctuate throughout the year in most areas of the world, and thus
monthly, or even weekly measures would not only be likely to show more detailed
results of demand and usage over time, but the correlations between attributes
would probably be more interesting. From our model, Sarah now knows how
certain attributes interact with one another, but in the day-to-day business of
doing her job, she’ll probably want to know about usage over time periods shorter
than one year.
∙ Adding additional attributes to the data set. It turned out that the number of
occupants in the home didn’t correlate much with other attributes, but that doesn’t
mean that other attributes would be equally uninteresting. For example, what if
Sarah had access to the number of furnaces and/or boilers in each home?
Home_size was slightly correlated with Heating_Oil usage, so perhaps the
number of instruments that consume heating oil in each home would tell an
interesting story, or at least add to her insight.
66
Sarah would also be wise to remember that the CRISP-DM approach is cyclical in nature.
Each month as new orders come in and new bills go out, as new customers sign up for
a heating oil account, there are additional data available to add into the model. As she
learns more about how each attribute in her data set interacts with others, she can
increase our correlation model by adding not only new attributes, but also, new
observations.
CHAPTER SUMMARY
This chapter has introduced the concept of correlation as a data mining model. It has
been chosen as the first model for this book because it is relatively simple to construct,
run and interpret, thus serving as an easy starting point upon which to build. Future
models will become more complex, but continuing to develop your skills in RapidMiner
and getting comfortable with the tools will make the more complex models easier for you
to achieve as we move forward.
Recall from Chapter 1 (Figure 1-2) that data mining has two somewhat interconnected
sides: Classification, and Prediction. Correlation has been shown to be primarily on the
side of Classification. We do not infer causation using correlation metrics, nor do we use
correlation coefficients to predict one attribute’s value based on another’s. We can
however quickly find general trends in data sets using correlations, and we can
anticipate how strongly an observed movement in one attribute will occur in conjunction
with movement in another.
Correlation can be a quick and easy way to see how elements of a given problem may
be interacting with one another. Whenever you find yourself asking how certain factors
in a problem you’re trying to solve interact with one another, consider building a
correlation matrix to find out. For example, does customer satisfaction change based on
time of year? Does the amount of rainfall change the price of a crop? Does household
income influence which restaurants a person patronizes? The answer to each of these
questions is probably ‘yes’, but correlation can not only help us know if that’s true, it can
also help us learn how strongly the interactions are when, and if, they occur.
67
REVIEW QUESTIONS
1) What are some of the limitations of correlation models?
2) What is a correlation coefficient? How is it interpreted?
3) What is the difference between a positive and a negative correlation? If two

attributes have values that decrease at essentially the same rate, is that a
negative correlation? Why or why not?
4) How is correlation strength measured? What are the ranges for strengths of correlation?
5) The number of heating oil consuming devices was suggested as a possibly

interesting attribute that could be added to the example data set for this chapter.
Can you think of others? Why might they be interesting? To what other attributes
in the data set do you think your suggested attributes might be correlated? What
would be the value in knowing if they are?
EXERCISE
It is now your turn to develop a correlation model, generate a coefficient matrix, and
analyze the results. To complete this chapter’s exercise, follow the steps below.
1) Select a professional sporting organization that you enjoy, or of which you are
aware. Locate that organization’s web site and search it for statistics, facts and
figures about the athletes in that organization.
2) Open OpenOffice Calc, and starting in Cell A across Row 1 of the spreadsheet,
define some attributes (at least three or four) to hold data about each athlete.
Some possible attributes you may wish to consider could be annual_salary,
points_per_game, years_as_pro, height, weight, age, etc. The list is potentially
unlimited, will vary based on the type of sport you choose, and will depend on the
data available to you on the web site you’ve selected. Measurements of the
athletes’ salaries and performance in competition are
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Data Mining

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Dr. Matthew North

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..............................xi SECTION ONE: Data Mining

One: Introduction to Data Mining and CRISP-DM

..............................3 A Note About Tools

The Data Mining Process

Chapter Two: Organizational Understanding and Data Understanding

..............................................13 Context and Perspective

............14 Purposes, Intents and Limitations of Data

Warehouse, Data Mart, Data Set…?..........................................................................15

......19 A Note about Privacy and Security

Chapter Three: Data

Context and Perspective

...........29 Preparing RapidMiner, Importing Data,

and........................................................................................30 Handling Missing Data

...46 Handling Inconsistent Data

............52 Chapter Summary

SECTION TWO: Data Mining Models and Methods

...........................................................................57 Chapter Four: Correlation

.........................65 Chapter Summary

.............68 Chapter Five: Association

...................74 Data Preparation

Chapter Six: k-Means

Context and Perspective

.............91 Organizational Understanding

............ 101 Review

............. 101 Exercise

Analysis.................................................................................................... 105 Context

.......... 105 Organizational Understanding

............................................................................................................. 106 Data

................ 106 Data Preparation

..........................120 Chapter Summary

Chapter Eight: Linear

128 Data Understanding

..........................134 Chapter Summary

Chapter Nine: Logistic

142 Data Understanding

..........................151 Chapter Summary

.......... 154 Exercise

.......... 154 Chapter Ten: Decision

Context and Perspective

...... 157 Organizational Understanding

............................................................................................................. 158 Data

............. 159 Data Preparation

....................... 166 Evaluation

...... 169 Deployment

... 171 Chapter

......... 172 Review

.......... 172 Exercise

.......... 173 Chapter Eleven: Neural Networks

.......................................................................................................... 175 Context and

...... 175 Organizational Understanding

............................................................................................................. 175 Data

............. 176 Data Preparation

....................... 181 Evaluation