Backrooms or Ballot Boxes
Backrooms or Ballot Boxes
Backrooms or Ballot Boxes
How political parties select their candidates for public office profoundly affects the types of peo-
ple who are elected as well as how these people behave in office. This selection process also pro-
vides important insights on how parties function internally and on where political power is
located within a country. Only a few comparative studies of nomination procedures exist, and
none explain why some parties at some points in time select candidates via direct primaries and
others do not. The authors analyze an original data set of 610 district-level nomination processes
for the biennial Argentine Chamber of Deputies elections held between 1983 and 2001. They
conclude that several specific institutional and partisan features have a prominent effect on the
probability that a political party will choose its candidates at the ballot box (direct primary)
rather than in a smoke-filled back room (elite arrangement).
MIGUEL DE LUCA
Universidad de Buenos Aires
MARK P. JONES
Michigan State University
MARA INS TULA
Universidad de Buenos Aires
AUTHORS NOTE: This project would have been impossible without the data collection work
carried out between 1999 and 2001 by a large number of research assistants and without the
assistance provided by Argentine rank-and-file party members, party leaders, and public ser-
vants. However, for reasons of space we cannot name all of these people here. Support for this
research was provided by the National Science Foundation (Grant No. SBR-9709695) and the
Centro de Estudios para el Desarrollo Institucional de la Fundacin Gobierno y Sociedad. The
article benefited from comments provided by Alejandro Poir, William Reed, two anonymous
reviewers, and participants in seminars at the Fundacin Gobierno y Sociedad, Instituto
Tecnolgico Autnomo de Mxico, New York University, and Universit di Siena and in a panel
at the 2000 Congress of the Latin American Studies Association.
COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES, Vol. 35 No. 4, May 2002 413-436
2002 Sage Publications
413
414 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / May 2002
the ballot box instead of in smoke-filled back rooms (rooms that in Argentina
are quite literally filled with smoke). In doing so, we take advantage of the
considerable institutional and partisan variance provided by Argentinas
diverse federal system and nearly two decades-long democratic experience.2
Analysis of this rich population allows us to make a valuable contribution to
the development of a general framework for the study of candidate selection
processes in countries where these procedures are not explicitly mandated by
constitution or statute (as is the case in the United States), countries that rep-
resent an overwhelming majority of the worlds democracies.
The article is divided into five sections. First, we provide a brief overview
of Argentine political institutions. Second, we discuss the principal Argen-
tine political parties. Third, we outline the methods of candidate selection
used in Argentina. Fourth, we offer an explanation for the differential use by
district-level parties of primaries versus elite arrangements to choose their
candidates for Argentine Chamber of Deputies elections. We conclude with a
discussion of the implications of our findings for future comparative study of
candidate nomination processes.
2. This approach parallels that of scholars such as Remmer and Wibbels (2000), who demon-
strate how subnational research can be useful for exploring issues of broad significance to the
field of comparative politics (p. 446).
3. Tierra del Fuego achieved provincial status in 1990. It and the federal capital (Capital Fed-
eral) are referred to as provinces in the text.
4. In 1983, all 254 deputies were elected simultaneously.
416 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / May 2002
their population (based on the 1980 census). In any given election, district
magnitude ranges from 2 to 35, with a median of 3.
Every Argentine province has its own constitution and a directly elected
governor and legislature.5 The provincial governments are very important
political entities, controlling a relatively large budget (the provincial govern-
ments account for roughly two fifths of public sector expenditures) and exer-
cising influence over vital areas of public policy.
In the 1983 to 2001 era, Argentine political parties can be divided into four
groups. First, there are the two parties that have dominated politics since
World War II: the Partido Justicialista (PJ) (Peronists) and the Unin Cvica
Radical (UCR) (Radicals).
Second, there are minor parties that achieved a national presence at some
point between 1983 and 2001. We examine these parties only during their
period of greatest prominence, because with the potential exception of three
current minor national parties, all turned out to be flashes in the pan and are
now, for all intents and purposes, electorally inconsequential. Furthermore,
we analyze these parties nomination processes only in the provinces where
they obtained their greatest electoral success. The parties in this category
(with the period they are examined in parentheses) are: Partido Intransigente
(PI) (1983-1991), Unin del Centro Democrtico (UCeD) (1983-1995),
Movimiento por la Dignidad y la Independencia (MODIN) (1991-1995),
Frente Grande/Frente por un Pas Solidario (FG/FREPASO) (1993-2001),
Accin por la Repblica (AR) (1997-2001), and Alternativa por una Repblica
de Iguales (ARI) (2001).6
Third, Argentina has a large number of parties that either solely or effec-
tively compete in only one province, where they often are the dominant or
main opposition party. We include all of the provincial parties that held the
governorship in their respective province at any time since 1983: Accin
Chaquea (ACh), Cruzada Renovadora (CR), Fuerza Republicana (FR),
Movimiento Popular Fueguino (MPF), Movimiento Popular Neuquino (MPN),
Partido Autonomista (PA), Partido Bloquista (PB), Partido Liberal (PL),
5. Governors are elected for 4-year terms. With a few minor exceptions, all gubernatorial
elections were held in 1983, 1987, 1991, 1995, and 1999.
6. FREPASO is an alliance of parties, the number of which has progressively decreased over
time, that always has been heavily dominated by the FG (e.g., the FG has never accounted for less
than three fourths of the FREPASO Chamber delegation). Given the FGs predominance, we
include it alone in our analysis.
De Luca et al. / CANDIDATE NOMINATION IN ARGENTINA 417
Partido Nuevo (PN), and the Partido Renovador de Salta (PRS). We also
include the most prominent provincial party that failed to win the governor-
ship during this period, the Partido Demcrata de Mendoza (PD).
Fourth, there are a host of minor parties that were not relevant actors in
Argentine politics during the period of 1983 to 2001. Our analysis focuses on
the candidate selection processes of the first three sets of parties.
PARTIDO JUSTICIALISTA
The PJ was founded by President Juan Pern after he dissolved the organi-
zations that supported his 1946 presidential candidacy.7 During Perns first
period in government (1946-1955), the PJ lacked a stable organizational
structure and was almost completely subservient to its charismatic leader
(Luna, 1984; McGuire, 1997). The party functioned as a mere electoral vehi-
cle and was a minor appendage of the broader Justicialista Movement for
which Pern considered the Peronist-dominated labor unions to be the spi-
nal cord. Pern exercised near-absolute control over the selection of the
partys candidates for public office.
Historically, the PJ was characterized by a strong collective identity but at
the same time by a weak level of formal institutionalization and a general lack
of established rules for the selection of leaders and candidates (Levitsky,
1998). Candidate selection ranged from the imposition of the candidacies by
Pern to the presentation of unofficial Peronist lists that competed with the
official Peronist list. Since the mid-1980s, however, intraparty competition
has become increasingly institutionalized, in part due to the post-1983 mod-
ernization efforts of the PJs Renovador faction.8
The UCR traces its origin to 1890, when it emerged as a champion of lib-
eral democracy and an opponent of Argentinas oligarchic regime. With the
passage of legislation providing for free and fair elections in 1912, the UCR
changed from an essentially protest-oriented movement to a powerful politi-
cal machine designed to win elections.
7. Shortly after being founded, the party adopted the name Partido Peronista. The name
Partido Justicialista began to be used in the 1960s.
8. Internally, the Renovadores demanded reforms to the PJs candidate selection process
(under the rules at the time, the only selection method was indirect via a party assembly), in par-
ticular the use of direct primary elections among party members to choose the partys candidates
for public office.
418 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / May 2002
During its 100-year existence, the UCR has been characterized by a high
level of organizational institutionalization, a strong respect for liberal demo-
cratic institutions, a relatively smoothly functioning party apparatus, and a
considerable degree of internal competition to select party leaders and candi-
dates for public office. Nevertheless, the existence of strong leaders has not
been alien to the UCR, as is evidenced by the extremely prominent role of
some of its leaders during the apogee of their power (Manzetti, 1993).
The PJ and UCR both possess a strong national presence. Each is divided
into 24 district-level organizations (corresponding to the 23 provinces and
federal capital), with a national party office located in the capital. Both par-
ties have an institutional presence in every municipality in the country.
The PJ and UCR possess a large number of members in every province.
For example, in 1983 and 1999, 17% and 16% of Argentine registered voters,
respectively, were PJ members, with comparable figures for the UCR, 8%
and 11%.9 No other party accounted for even 1% of registered voters at any
time between 1983 and 2001. The PJ and UCR also dominated electoral com-
petition in Argentina between 1983 and 2001. Combined, they won an aver-
age of 82% (PJ 47% and UCR 35%) of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies
and 83% (PJ 61% and UCR 22%) of the governorships.
Although the Argentine party system has been dominated by the PJ and
UCR during this period, other parties with a national focus experienced peri-
odic electoral success (i.e., AR, ARI, FG, MODIN, PI, UCeD). After
obtaining a substantial number of votes in two or three elections (principally
in Capital Federal and the province of Buenos Aires), historically these par-
ties have failed to consolidate an important base of support and, eventually,
effectively disappeared from the electoral map. This has been the experience
of the MODIN, PI, and UCeD, with the current prognosis for the other three
parties ranging from pessimistic to uncertain.
PROVINCIAL PARTIES
The provincial parties can be divided into three categories: (a) parties that
trace their roots to the parties of local notables that dominated politics during
9. All electoral and seat data come from the Direccin Nacional Electoral.
De Luca et al. / CANDIDATE NOMINATION IN ARGENTINA 419
Argentinas oligarchic period (1880-1916) (PA, PD, PL, PN), (b) parties that
trace their origins to either the UCR (CR and PB, which split off from the
UCR) or PJ (MPN, a neo-Peronist party founded during the period of
Peronist proscription), and (c) parties founded by former military officers
who governed the province during the military dictatorship that ran from
1976 to 1983 (ACh, FR, PRS) (Mansilla, 1983). The only provincial party
included here that does not correspond to one of these categories is the MPF.
Two general characteristics of the provincial parties are their relative lack
of organizational structure (small membership, absence of a physical pres-
ence at the neighborhood level), particularly compared with the PJ and UCR,
and their tendency to be dominated by a single person or small clique, with
this dominance facilitated by the partys competing in only one province.
10. The district-level branches of the respective national parties all have their own charters
that, though conforming to the broad outlines of the national party charter, vary considerably in
many important respects. The party charters are flexible documents that are relatively easy to
modify.
420 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / May 2002
The final category includes only those cases in which two or more lists
competed in a direct primary election.11 Primaries are run by the political par-
ties, not the government. They are held on a Sunday between 2 months and 1
year prior to the general election and involve a considerable amount of mobi-
lization (get out the vote [GOTV]) efforts by the competing intraparty lists.12
The electorate for these contests is either party members alone or party mem-
bers and those not affiliated with any party (referred to as independents in
Argentina). However, even when independents are allowed to participate,
they account for a relatively small share of the primary electorate, rarely sur-
passing 25%. Furthermore, a large proportion of these independents are rela-
tives or friends of party members who bring them along to vote for the list
supported by the party member.
Vital to these GOTV efforts is the support of three groups. First, every list
needs the support of its own machine (aparato) composed of regional and
neighborhood-level leaders (punteros) who have established ties (normally
fostered and maintained via patronage) with the leader or leaders supporting
the list.13 Second, lists seek the support of punteros not initially aligned with
any of the competing lists. Third, lists seek the support of other organized
groups with a strong ability to mobilize large numbers of people (e.g., labor
unions, community organizations, soccer fan clubs/hooligans [barras bravas]).
In addition to obtaining the support of the aforementioned groups, to be
competitive, a list must be able to carry out the following tasks. First, it must
engage in campaign advertising.14 Second, it must rent a large number of
taxis and buses to transport voters to the polls. Third, it must deploy several
11. A variety of allocation formulas are used to distribute the positions on the partys closed
list among the competing intraparty lists. These include winner-take-all arrangements in which
the list that wins the plurality of the vote in the primary wins all of the positions and
semiproportional methods in which the runner-up list (if it surpasses a threshold, normally 25%
of the vote) receives every fourth (PJ in large districts) or third (UCR or PJ in small districts)
position on the party list. Other district-level parties use the dHondt PR formula, often with a
25% threshold.
12. Even when primaries are held, the party will occasionally change the order of candidates
on the list that emerges out of the primary process. These changes are, however, virtually always
carried out with the consent, albeit at times grudging, of the affected individuals. These cases are
coded as primaries, because the relevant point is that the primary took place.
13. Punteros are local-level party activists whose work is vital to the survival of the aparato.
Specific tasks carried out by punteros include the creation and maintenance of block-/
neighborhood-level party organizations, the recruitment of new members (i.e., registering peo-
ple as party members), the mobilization of party members to attend meetings and mass rallies,
and the distribution of material goods (e.g., food, clothing).
14. The principal advertising methods in primary election campaigns are banners, posters,
wall paintings, mass rallies, and lit drops. Radio and television are rarely employed.
De Luca et al. / CANDIDATE NOMINATION IN ARGENTINA 421
election monitors to every precinct to prevent the list from being the victim of
electoral fraud.
Vital to all six of the aforementioned factors is the amount of financial and
material resources at the disposal of the lists supporters to maintain their
machine during an extended period of time, obtain the support of nonaligned
punteros and other organized groups, pay for campaign advertising, hire a
large number of taxis/buses, and staff the polls with election monitors.
CHOOSING BY A PRIMARY
INSTEAD OF ELITE ARRANGEMENT
In the next two sections, we explain the varied usage of these different can-
didate nomination procedures in Argentina. In doing so, we provide some of
the first steps toward developing a systematic understanding of the decision
by parties to employ distinct candidate nomination methods in countries
where these procedures are not explicitly mandated by constitution or statute.
Our analysis population consists of the nomination method employed to
select the candidates on the lists presented by the PJ, UCR, minor national
parties (during the specified periods) in their bailiwicks, and provincial par-
ties (those previously listed) for the biennial Chamber of Deputies elections
held between 1983 and 2001 (610 cases total).15 A case is the method by
which a party in a province selected its candidates for the Chamber election.
Thus, the method used by the UCR in the province of Entre Ros to choose its
candidates for the 1999 Chamber election is considered a case.
PRIMARY ELECTION
15. Depending on the year, province, and party in question, the nomination process occurred
either in the year of or the year prior to the election. We refer to the nomination election year in
terms of the year of the relevant general election. Information on our data sources is located in the
Appendix.
16. The use of party assemblies is so infrequent (2% of our cases) that they are not treated as a
separate category and instead are merged with elite arrangement. Excluding the party assembly
cases has no substantive effect on our findings. We also created a dependent variable for which
we coded all primaries (23 total) when the difference between the vote percentage of the winning
list and that of the runner-up was greater than 75% (i.e., very noncompetitive primaries) as 0
instead of 1. Use of this variable provided results very similar to those presented here. All unre-
ported results discussed in this article are available from the authors.
422 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / May 2002
We hypothesize that there are seven principal factors that explain a partys
decision to use a primary or an elite arrangement to choose its candidates for
Chamber elections.17 The theoretical logic behind these factors hypothe-
sized influence and information on their operationalization is provided
below.
Several authors (Eaton, 2000; Jones, 1997; Spiller & Tommasi, 2000)
argue that Argentine governors exert a profound amount of influence over
their party at the provincial level. The presence of a governor should reduce
the probability of the district-level elite of his party being seriously divided, a
division that often results in a primary election being held (Jones, 1997). We
therefore expect district-level parties in provinces where the party controls
the governorship to be more likely to choose their candidates via elite
arrangement than via primaries (Key, 1964).18
The governor has important institutional and political resources at his dis-
posal, converting him into the key actor in his partys candidate selection pro-
cess. First, the governor heads the provincial public administration and thus
has the ability to staff it. Jobs in the provincial public sector, known as con-
tracts in party vernacular, are distributed on a strict party-based criteria,
going to party activists (or their relatives) and rank-and-file party members.
These contracts often represent a familys only income source.19
Second, the governor exercises considerable influence over public policy
(either through his direct control of the provincial budget or his discretionary
17. In unreported analysis, we examined the influence of the level of provincial develop-
ment. Factors associated with a higher level of development such as a robust middle class, a large
independent mass media, and a population less dependent on state employment could lead to
increased popular demands for intraparty democracy. To test this hypothesis, we created a devel-
opment variable, with Argentinas five advanced (World Bank, 1990) or metropolitan (Gib-
son, 1997) provinces (Buenos Aires, Capital Federal, Crdoba, Mendoza, Santa Fe) coded 1 and
all others coded 0. In a model identical to that used here, this variable had no noteworthy effect on
the probability of a primary being held. Furthermore, a log likelihood ratio test indicated that its
inclusion did not significantly improve the fit of the model. Given these results, as well as some
modest collinearity problems engendered by its presence, the development variable is not
included in the main analysis.
18. Although Keys specific focus (on the competitiveness of U.S. primaries) is somewhat
distinct due to the different statutory environment in which these primaries were held, his theory
regarding competitiveness can easily be extended to the decision to employ a primary or elite
arrangement.
19. The mean number of provincial public employees per 1,000 inhabitants in the 24 prov-
inces during the 1983-2001 period was 51, and the mean percentage of provincial revenue
accounted for by provincial employee salaries was 72 (Jones, Sanguinetti, & Tommasi, 2001).
De Luca et al. / CANDIDATE NOMINATION IN ARGENTINA 423
INCUMBENT GOVERNOR/REELECTION
When a partys national leader (de facto, if not also de jure) also holds the
office of president of the Republic, he has additional resources (e.g., the
granting or withholding of financial transfers, subsidies, or public works and
the ability to make political appointments) with which to influence candidate
selection at the provincial level (Jones, 1997). The national party leader is
thus more able (and therefore more likely) to involve himself in the nomina-
tion procedures of his party at the provincial level if he is president of the
Republic than if he is in the opposition. The addition of this important player
to the provincial-level nomination game is likely to increase the probability
of using primaries as opposed to elite arrangements, as the president inter-
venes in support of opponents of the dominant local party faction if it does not
support him (Jones, 1997). Instances in which a district-level party was also
the party of the president of the Republic (UCR for 1985-1989 and 2001, PJ
for 1991-1999) are coded 1, and all other instances are coded 0. We expect a
positive relationship between this variable and the probability that a party
uses a primary to select its Chamber candidates.
20. Of the four governors who declined to run, two did so primarily due to their advanced age
(82 and 77), with the latters son running in his place, while another ran for president (had he lost
he would have presented for reelection).
De Luca et al. / CANDIDATE NOMINATION IN ARGENTINA 425
CONTAGION
21. Advocates of primaries in Argentina justify their support on the grounds that it is more
democratic than traditional methods such as elite arrangement (Tula & De Luca, 1999). A prime
example is a series of editorials by the national newspaper La Nacin between 1996 and 2001
promoting the use of primaries.
22. The percentage of the PJ and UCR provincial-level branches that chose their candidates
via primaries for the 10 elections is (PJ/UCR): 1983 (0/13), 1985 (33/52), 1987 (35/65), 1989
(57/65), 1991 (52/83), 1993 (71/71), 1995 (56/54), 1997 (58/71), 1999 (54/38), and 2001
(38/46).
426 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / May 2002
UCR IN ALIANZA
We use five binary variables to control for party fixed effects: PJ, UCR,
minor national party, provincial party, and MPN-MPF. The first three vari-
ables are straightforward, following our previous discussion of the parties.
All cases of PJ party nomination processes are coded 1 and all other cases 0.
23. Evidence from Chiles experience with these types of coalitions since 1989 leads to a
similar conclusion (Siavelis, 1998).
24. In 1997, the Alianza was formed at the last minute in late July and early August. By this
time, all of the UCR provincial branches had completed their candidate nomination processes. In
2001, the UCR and FREPASO ended up presenting a joint list in 16 provinces. However, as was
the case in 1999, negotiations between the two parties took place throughout the primary season
in all of the provinces. In the end, these negotiations failed in eight provinces primarily due to the
UCRs refusal to grant FREPASO a list position that guaranteed it the election of a legislator,
which, given FREPASOs marginal vote contribution, was considered an excessive concession
by the UCR. Also playing a prominent role in this failure in several provinces was the desire of
many FREPASO members to distance themselves from the policies of President Fernando de la
Ra (UCR).
De Luca et al. / CANDIDATE NOMINATION IN ARGENTINA 427
We employ a similar coding scheme for the UCR and minor national party
(AR, ARI, FG, MODIN, PI, UCeD) variables.
Two provincial parties that do not conform to the previous general charac-
terization of these parties (small membership, limited physical presence,
dominated by a single person or small clique) are the MPF and MPN.
The MPFs origins are distinct from those of the other parties and have
contributed to the partys divided leadership throughout its history (Tula &
De Luca, 1999). The MPF was formed from the union of two municipal par-
ties from Tierra del Fuegos two cities: Ro Grande and Ushuaia. The conflict
between the factions from these two cities has been a constant ever since.
The MPN is distinct from the other provincial parties in that it is the only
one that possesses an important mass base and strong neighborhood-level
presence. Its average percentage of members during the 1983-1999 period
(25%) is more than double that of the next largest provincial party, and in
1999 its members represented 36% of Neuquns registered voters (the clos-
est other provincial party had 10% of its provinces voters as members).
Given the distinctive nature of the MPF and MPN, we create two variables
for the provincial parties. The variable MPN-MPF is coded 1 if the party in
question was the MPF or MPN and 0 in all other cases. The provincial party
variable is coded 1 if the party in question was ACh, CR, FR, PA, PB, PD, PL,
PN, or PRS and 0 in all other cases.
Our only strong hypotheses for these party variables are as follows. First,
we expect provincial party, due to these parties distinct organizational and
leadership structure, to have an inverse effect on the probability of holding a
primary. Second, given its pre-1983 use of primaries and the emphasis it
places on the importance of liberal democratic institutions, we expect the
UCR to be more likely to hold a primary than the historically verticalist and
uninstitutionalized PJ.
Summary statistics for all of these variables are provided in Table 1. Of
particular note, the dependent variable, primary election, is almost evenly
divided between cases in which a primary was employed to select the Cham-
ber candidates and cases in which an elite arrangement or party assembly was
used.
Table 1
Descriptive Statistics
Variables Mean SD
Table 2
Holding a Primary in Argentina, 1983-2001
maries may not be driven as much by external pressures (e.g., the perception
of the partys internal functioning by the voters vis--vis that of other parties)
as by intraparty politics.
1983 election year has a significant inverse effect on the probability of
holding a primary.28 A party in 1983 was 43% less likely to choose its candi-
dates using a primary than was a party in any other year.
In 1999 and 2001, the UCR was significantly less likely to hold a primary
than in other years. Due in large part to its role in the Alianza, the UCR dis-
trict-level parties were 27% less likely to choose their candidates via a pri-
mary in 1999 and 2001 than they were between 1983 and 1997.
We hypothesized that the provincial parties (provincial party) would be
less likely to hold primaries than other parties. We find support for this
hypothesis, with the provincial parties 41% less likely to hold a primary than
the other parties. Additional analysis (based on the data used in Table 2) indi-
cates the provincial parties are significantly less likely to hold a primary than
all of the other parties and groups of parties. The provincial parties distinct
organizational and leadership characteristics appear to make a difference for
the method of candidate selection they employ.
As for the relationships between the four other party variables (PJ, UCR,
minor national party, MPN-MPF), the only significant differences detected
(in additional analysis similar to that above) are that the MPN-MPF are more
likely to hold a primary than the PJ, UCR, and minor national parties and that
the PJ and UCR are more likely to hold a primary than the minor national par-
ties. In spite of the differences in the popular characterization of the UCR
(liberal-democratic, institutionalized) and PJ (verticalist, uninstitutionalized),
the UCR is not significantly more likely to hold a primary than the PJ.29
28. Log likelihood ratio tests indicate that including temporal variables to control for the
other election years does not significantly improve the fit of the model. In all instances, analysis
conducted excluding all data from 1983 provided results not substantively different from those
presented here.
29. Analysis limited to the PJ and UCR cases provides results extremely similar to those pre-
sented here (except, of course, for the other party variables). Note that to correctly calculate the
PJ-UCR difference in Table 2, one has to examine the combined (and insignificant) effect of the
UCR and UCR in Alianza variables. By way of illustration, in analysis identical to that in Table
2, except that UCR in Alianza is excluded, the z statistic for the UCR variable is a mere 0.96.
Given the FGs media/self-portrayal as a modern party (contrasting its approach with the PJ
and UCRs old school methods), it is also interesting that 90% of the FG nomination processes
in this study were elite arrangements.
De Luca et al. / CANDIDATE NOMINATION IN ARGENTINA 431
30. All party variables not explicitly mentioned are set to zero, and the mean values for conta-
gion and national governing party are used (for scenarios 1 to 3, UCR in Alianza is set to zero,
and for scenarios 4 to 6, its mean value is used). The probability is the expected value obtained
from the analysis in Table 2 using Clarify (King, Tomz, & Wittenberg, 2000).
31. The probabilities for scenarios 4, 5, and 6, if they are limited to the 1985-1997 period
(i.e., excluding the Alianza years), are 71%, 54%, and 29%, respectively.
32. Additional analysis (excluded for reasons of space) that examined the gubernatorial and
nongubernatorial (i.e., midterm) election years separately provided findings that are substan-
tively similar to those presented here.
432 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / May 2002
Table 3
The Probability of a Primary Being Held Under Six Common Scenarios
Is Probability
Incumbent of a
Provincial Governor Primary
Government Eligible for Being
Scenario Party Status Reelection? Held (%)
1. PJ Opposition No 61
2. PJ Government No 43
3. PJ Government Yes 21
4. UCR Opposition No 69
5. UCR Government No 52
6. UCR Government Yes 27
Note: The above scenarios are applicable to any year but 1983. Contagion and national govern-
ing party are set at their mean values. The probability is the expected value obtained using Clar-
ify (10,000 simulations) (King, Tomz, & Wittenberg, 2000). PJ = Partido Justicialista; UCR =
Unin Cvica Radical.
CONCLUSION
Our findings underscore the point made elsewhere (Gibson, 1997; Gibson
& Calvo, 2000; Jones, 1997; Levitsky, 2001; Spiller & Tommasi, 2000) that
the key to understanding the functioning of the Argentine party system dur-
ing the post-1983 era lies at the provincial level. We highlight the provincial-
centric nature of the party system as well as the powerful effect that governors
have on their party at the provincial level. Our results also indicate that, with
the exception of the MPF and MPN, the internal functioning (especially can-
didate selection) of the provincial parties is distinct from that of other parties.
Obviously, data from one country have their limitations. Nonetheless, the
combination of Argentinas federal form of government, decentralized party
system, and relatively extensive history of continuous democracy provides
an excellent population with which to begin to better understand candidate
nomination procedures. With this caveat in mind, four important general les-
sons can be drawn from our work regarding a partys decision to choose its
candidates via primaries instead of via elite arrangement.
First, parties in the opposition are more likely to hold primaries than par-
ties in government. Second, among parties in government, instances in which
the executive cannot stand for immediate reelection are likely to lead to a
greater use of primaries than those in which the incumbent can run for reelec-
tion. Third, the establishment of stable alliances between two relatively equal
partners is likely to reduce the probability that legislative candidates will be
chosen via primaries. Fourth, the smaller the size of a partys membership
De Luca et al. / CANDIDATE NOMINATION IN ARGENTINA 433
and extent of its institutional presence and the larger the degree to which it is
dominated by a single person or small clique, the lower the probability that it
will hold primaries to choose its candidates for public office.
These four conclusions await further empirical testing in other countries,
testing that will provide an assessment of the generalizability of the findings
derived from the Argentine experience. Fortunately, given the growing popu-
larity of primaries throughout the world, cross-national analysis similar to
that presented here is likely to be feasible within the decade.
The future portends an increasing use of primaries, not a decrease, as
political parties, facing internal and external demands for intraparty democ-
ratization, opt for primaries to choose their candidates for public office. It is
thus imperative that we continue to improve the disciplines rather meager
understanding of this vital yet understudied process.
APPENDIX
La Voz del Chaco (2001) (Chaco), El Chubut (1983-2001) and Crnica de Comodoro
Rivadavia (2001) (Chubut), El Diario (1983-2001) (Entre Ros), El Comercial (2000-2001),
La Maana (1984-1995) and Opinin Ciudadana (2001) (Formosa), Pregn (1983-2001)
(Jujuy), La Arena (1983-2001) and La Reforma (2001) (La Pampa), El Independiente
(1983-1995, 1999-2001) (La Rioja), Los Andes (1983-2001) (Mendoza), El Territorio
(1983-2001) (Misiones), El Diario (1988-1999) (Neuqun), Ro Negro (1983-2001)
(Ro Negro), El Tribuno (1983-2001) (Salta), Diario de Cuyo (1983-1995) and Diario
El Zonda (2000-2001) (San Juan), El Diario de la Repblica (1985-1995, 2000-2001)
(San Luis), La Opinin Austral (1984-1997, 2001) and Tiempo Sur (1998-2001) (Santa
Cruz), La Capital (1983-2001) and El Litoral (1983-1995, 1999-2001) (Santa Fe), El Lib-
eral (1983-1995, 2000-2001) and Nuevo Diario (1991-1994) (Santiago del Estero), El
Diario del Fin del Mundo (1995, 1999-2001) and El Sureo (1991-2001) (Tierra del
Fuego), La Gaceta (1983-2001) (Tucumn).
6. Interviews with more than 100 party leaders and members.
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436 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / May 2002
Mara Ins Tula is an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at the
Universidad de Buenos Aires and a researcher at the Instituto Gino Germani. She has
published several articles on the political consequences of electoral laws in Argentina
and is presently carrying out a study, funded by the Argentine National Council for Sci-
entific and Technical Research (CONICET), of the effects of the double simultaneous
vote (ley de lemas) in the Argentine provinces.