Reserves Estimation: The Following Equation Is Used in The Volumetric Calculation of Reserves
Reserves Estimation: The Following Equation Is Used in The Volumetric Calculation of Reserves
Reserves Estimation: The Following Equation Is Used in The Volumetric Calculation of Reserves
Parlaktuna
Chapter 2
RESERVES ESTIMATION
VOLUMETRIC CALCULATIONS
N 1
STOIIP Vb (1 S w ) (1)
G Bo
where:
Vb = bulk volume of the reservoir rock, bbl
= porosity, fraction
Vb A h
where:
A = area of the reservoir, ft2
h = thickness of the reservoir, ft
We will now examine the details how to determine the parameters of Equations 1 and 2.
Thickness: An important parameter in volumetric estimating is the thickness of producing zone.
Various types of thickness definitions used in oil industry are illustrated in Figure 1. Each of these
definitions can play a part in the estimating procedure. Within the reservoir interval, there are almost
always intercalations of shale or other rock, which, owing to their low porosity and permeability or
high water saturation, do not contain recoverable reserves. The thickness of these non-productive
strata should be subtracted from the gross thickness of the reservoir to obtain the net pay thickness.
Gross thickness: It is the thickness of the stratigraphically defined interval in which the reservoir beds
occur, including such non-productive intervals as may be interbedded between the productive
intervals.
Net pay (net productive) thickness: It is the thickness of those intervals in which porosity and
permeability are known or supposed to be high enough for the interval to be able to produce oil or gas.
Net oil-bearing thickness: It includes those intervals in which oil is present in such saturation that the
interval may be expected to produce oil, if penetrated by a properly completed well.
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The diagram in Figure 1 represents a simple case in which the difference between oil-bearing and non-
oil-bearing rock is clearly visible on the logs. This is not always the case, especially in carbonate
reservoirs it is often very difficult to establish whether a certain interval will produce clean oil, or oil
and water, or water only.
OP FP GP (3)
A reduction in fluid pressure will lead to a corresponding increase in the grain pressure, and vice
versa, since the overburden pressure remains constant at any particular depth.
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d(FP) d(GP)
In the concept of the petroliferous sedimentary basin as a region of water into which sediment has
accumulated and hydrocarbons have been generated and trapped, we may have an expectation of a
regional hydrostatic gradient. That is, in a water column representing vertical pore fluid continuity, the
pressure at any point is approximated by the relationship:
PX XG w
where:
X = the depth below a reference datum, ft
Gw = hydrostatic pressure gradient, psi/ft
The value of Gw depends on the salinity of the waters and on the temperature in the system. Fresh
water exhibits a gradient of 0.433 psi/ft and reservoir water systems are commonly encountered with
gradients in the range of 0.44 psi/ft to 0.53 psi/ft. In reservoirs found at depths between 2000 m
subsea and 4000 m subsea we might use a gradient of 0.49 psi/ft to predict pore fluid pressures around
5500 to 9000 psi as shown in Figure 3.
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Pw X WOC G w C1
where:
C1 = a constant representing any degree of underpressure or overpressure, psi
At the same depth, XWOC, we can therefore write:
Pw(WOC) Po(WOC)
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PoX(D) Po(WOC) o g ' (X WOC X D ) (8)
where:
o = The local oil density, lb/cuft
g = The ratio of gravitational acceleration to the universal constant gc.
At the GOC:
Po(GOC) Pg(GOC)
The pressure in the gas phase at the top of reservoir XT will therefore be:
PgX(T) Po(WOC) o g ' (X WOC X GOC ) g g ' (X GOC X T ) (10)
There can be a significant difference at depth XT between PgX(T) and the calculated Pw at the same
depth using the equation:
Pw X T G w C1
This difference accounts for gas-kicks encountered sometimes during drilling operations as gas sands
are penetrated.
The estimation and recognition of fluid contacts are essential in evaluating hydrocarbons in place.
Having determined the fluid contacts in the reservoir, the engineer is then in a position to calculate the
net bulk volume Vb required to calculate the hydrocarbon in place.
An application of fluid contact determination using fluid pressure regimes can be found in the book by
Dake(2).
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Water saturation (Sw) and porosity (): These two parameters are normally determined by
petrophysical analysis (core measurements) and interpretation of wireline logs. These techniques are
the subject of other courses therefore will not be described in this text.
Oil formation volume factor (Bo): As all the other PVT properties, oil formation volume factor is
measured by laboratory experiments performed on samples of the reservoir oil, plus its originally
dissolved gas.
Area: The areal extent of reservoirs are defined with some degree of uncertainty by evidence from
drilled wells combined with geophysical interpretation of seismic data. For the purpose of reservoir
volume calculations, two types of maps are particularly desirable, isopach (isopay) map or subsurface
contour (isobath) map.
Isopach (isopay) map is the map showing lines connecting points of equal net formation thickness
(Figure 5).
Subsurface contour (isobath) map is the map showing lines connecting points of equal elevations from
a datum plane, therefore a map showing equal structure (Figure 6). This map is used in preparing the
isopach (isopay) map where there is an water-oil, gas-water, or gas-oil contact. The contact line is the
zero isopach line. The volume is obtained by planimetering the areas between the isopach lines of the
entire reservoir.
One of the convenient methods for the determination of bulk volume is area versus depth graph. It is
suitable for all cases where the geometry of the reservoir is represented by contour maps, either
structural or some form of thickness map.
The case illustrated in Figure 7 is a fault block reservoir of simple structure and fairly uniform
thickness. Structural contour maps on top and base reservoir are available. The area enclosed by each
contour is measured. These measured areas are plotted against the corresponding depth; this results in
separate curves for top and base reservoir. The area enclosed by these two curves represents the
reservoir volume.
It will be clear that the area measured for any contour includes also the areas enclosed by all lower-
numbered contours. For instance, the area of the 2100 m contour includes also the area of the 200 m
contour, etc.
The method is, of course, not confined to use in simple reservoirs as shown in the sketch. In case the
entire oil-bearing volume is underlain by bottom water, a horizontal line at the WOC depth replaces
the curve for base reservoir.
Also the method can be used on thickness maps. If a reservoir is flat, but the net sand thickness varies
appreciably over the reservoir area, it is convenient to construct an isochore map. An isochore map
shows the vertical distance between top and bottom marker of an interval, while the isopach map
depicts the true thickness of an interval along the true dip direction. The Area vs. Depth Graph is
then replaced by and Area vs. Thickness Graph, constructed on the same principle (Figure 8).
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The use of some equations is another method to approximate the volume of a productive zone from
planimeter readings. Volume of a pyramid and volume of a trapezoid are the two commonly used
equations.
Volume of a pyramid is given with the following equation:
h
Vb (A n A n 1 A n A n 1 ) (1
3
where:
Vb = bulk volume between two isopach lines, acre-ft
An = area enclosed by the lower isopach line, acre
An+1 = area enclosed by the upper isopach line, acre
h = the interval between two isopach lines, ft
h
Vb (A n A n 1 )
2
h
Vb (A 0 2A1 2A 2 .......... ... 2A n 1 A n ) t avg A n (14)
2
where
tavg = average thickness above the top isopach line, ft
Use the equation for pyramid if the area ratio of two successive isopach lines is less than 0.5.
Study the example given in Craft and Hawkins(3).
From the bulk volume (gross oil-bearing rock volume), determined by one of the methods discussed in
the preceding sections, the volume of hydrocarbon reserves now has to be calculated.
The commonly used fundamental equation was given in Equation 1 and is also shown in Figure 9. In
the tabulation the various parameters involved are listed, together with the symbols conveniently used.
Assumed values for each parameter are also listed. These values are the common values often found in
practice, which will give some idea of the magnitudes that can occur. The final column shows how an
original gross volume of 100 arbitrary units is reduced at each subsequent step in the calculations.
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REFERENCES
1. Archer, J.S., Wall, C.G., Petroleum Engineering-Principles and Practice, Graham and
Trotman, London, 1986.
2. Dake, L.P., Fundamentals of Reservoir Engineering, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1978, 1-12.
3. Craft, B.C., Hawkins, M.F., Applied Petroleum Reservoir Engineering, Prentice Hall, New
Jersey, 1959.
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Resources fill the rest of the McKelvey box. These resources are minerals that are
undiscovered or have been discovered but for which economic recovery is uncertain.
SPE definitions(2): SPE definitions are deterministic: that is, a single figure is calculated for
each reservoir category. The reserves categories represent different confidence levels, with
proved reserves representing those that can be recovered with reasonable certainty under
prevailing economic conditions. The reasonable certainty test is not quantified, but is left to
the evaluators professional judgment.
Probable and possible reserves are defined by SPE, but such definitions are so vague, they
are of little consistent quantitative value. Probable reserves are defined as being less certain
than proved but likely to be recovered, and possible reserves are less certain than probable
reserves. A fundamentalist approach to these statements would imply that 50 % certainty
separates probable from possible reserves and that proved reserves (reasonable certainty) are
bounded by 100 % certainty at the top end, but with the boundary between proved and
probable not formally quantified by a certainty level of probability.
WPC definitions(3): WPC definitions are probabilistic: the range of potential reserves in a
reservoir is determined as a distribution and that distribution is sampled at defined levels of
cumulative probability (certainty) to become the defined reserves values. Monte Carlo
techniques are used to construct the initial distribution of potential reserves in a reservoir.
Although definitions and use vary, general use is that proven reserves (1P) represents a 90 %
certainty level; proven + probable (2P), a 50 % certainty level; and proven + probable +
possible (3P), a 10 % certainty level (Figure 2).
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1. that portion delineated by drilling and defined by fluid contacts, if any, and
2. the adjoining portions not yet drilled that reasonably can be judged economically
productive on the basis of available geological and engineering data (frequently
limited to direct offset locations).
Probable reserves include(5):
1. reserves that appear to exist a reasonable distance beyond the proved limits of
productive reservoirs, where water contacts have not been determined, and proved
limits are established only by the lowest known structural occurrence of hydrocarbons,
2. reserves in formations that appear to be productive from log characteristics only but
lack definitive tests or core analyses data,
3. reserves in a portion of a formation that has been proved productive in other areas in a
field but is separated from the proved area by sealing faults, provided that the geologic
interpretation indicates the probable area is related favorably to the proved portion of
the formation,
4. reserves obtainable by improved recovery where an improved recovery program,
which has yet to be established through repeated economically successful operations,
is planned but is not yet in operation and a successful pilot test has not been
performed, but reservoir and formation characteristics appear favorable for its success,
5. reserves in the same reservoir as proved reserves that would be recoverable if a more
efficient recovery mechanism develops than was assumed in estimating the proved
reserves, and
6. reserves that depend on a successful workover, treatment, retreatment, change of
equipment, or other mechanical procedures for recovery, unless such procedures have
been proven successful in wells exhibiting similar behavior in the same reservoir.
Possible reserves include(5):
1. reserves that might be found if certain geologic conditions exist that are indicated by
structural extrapolation from developed areas,
2. reserves that might be found if reasonably definitive geophysical interpretations
indicate a productive area larger than could be included within the proved and
probable limits,
3. reserves that might be found in formations that have somewhat favorable log
characteristics but leave a reasonable doubt as to their certainty,
4. reserves that might exist in untested fault segments adjacent to proved reservoirs
where a reasonable doubt exists as to whether such fault segment contains recoverable
hydrocarbons,
5. reserves that might result from a planned improved recovery program that is not in
operation and that is in a field in which formation fluid or reservoir characteristics are
such that a reasonable doubt exist as to its success.
In the example sketched in Figure 3, the central block has been proved oil productive by three
wells and the structure and the position of the WOC have been established with fair
reliability. The amount that would be estimated for this block would be estimated for this
block would come in the proved category.
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The west and north blocks have been brought into the probable category. In both blocks one
well has been drilled and has proved the presence of producible oil. However, in the west
block the depth of the WOC has not yet been established; for a reserve estimate the same
depth as in the central block would be assumed but this is by no means certain. If the WOC is
higher than assumed, the reserve estimate would be too high. In the north block the structure
on both sides, away from the central well, is still known only poorly and this leaves a
considerable margin of uncertainty.
The east block, which no wells has yet penetrated, represents the possible category. This case
demonstrates the fundamental difficulty in attempting to define the uncertainties involves in
the reserves estimating; in fact, two types of uncertainty have to be considered. First, there is
the question whether or not any producible oil is present in the block at all. In this case the
chance that the answer to the question is positive seems fairly good: oil has already been
proved on the three other blocks on the structure. Secondly, there is the possibility of
inaccuracies in the volumetric estimates, because on insufficiency of the database. This
uncertainty, of course, also exists in the probable category and, to a lesser extent in the proven
category.
REFERENCES
1. McKelvey, V.E., Concepts of Reserves and Resources, Methods of Estimating the
Volume of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources, Ed. John D. Haun, AAPG, Tulsa,
(1975), 11.
2. Proved Reserves Definitions, JPT, (Nov. 1981), 2113-2114.
3. Classification and Nomenclature Systems for Petroleum and Petroleum Reserves,
1933 and 1983 Study Group report, 11th World Petroleum Congress, London (1984).
4. Grace, J.D., Caldwell, R.H., Heather, D.I., Comparative Reserves Definitions:
U.S.A., Europe, and the Former Soviet Union, JPT, (September, 1993), 866-872.
5. Garb, F.A., Oil and Gas Reserves Classification, Estimation and Evaluation, JPT,
(March, 1985), 373-390.
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0.6
0.5
Probability (fraction)
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Net pay (ft)
0.6
0.5
Probability (fraction)
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
Area (acres)
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Minimum 20 500
If the PDF of the logarithms of the values can be approximated by a Gaussian PDF, the PDF of is said
to be log normal. An example for a log normal PDF is given in Figure 4, which gives the distribution
of initial reserves, Npa, for a set of wells in a given geologic trend. Curve A in Figure 4 illustrates a
log normal distribution and can be approximated by a Gaussian PDF, like Curve B by using the
logarithm of values. Such distributions exhibit positive skew, as illustrated by Curve A in Figure 4.
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Some data set may have a constant PDF between its two parameters a (the minimum) and b (the
maximum). This type of distribution is known as the uniform distribution (also called rectangular
distribution). Figure 5 shows an example of a uniform distribution in which the probability of having a
porosity value between 10 and 20 % is 0.1.
0.12
0.1
Probability (fraction)
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
9 11 13 15 17 19 21
Porosity (%)
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20