AMR Summary
AMR Summary
AMR Summary
NORTH AMERICA
March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 SUMMARY
Paraxylene & Upstream Overview
CONTENTS/LINKS Dollars Per Metric Ton
1,200
PRICE FORECAST 2 Weekly History Monthly Forecast
CRUDE AND UPSTREAM 5 1,100
BENZENE 10 900
STYRENE 15 800
STYRENE DERIVATIVES 19 700
CYCLOHEXANE 20 600
CUMENE 22
500
PHENOL 24
400
PARAXYLENE 26
PTA 28 300
PET 30 200
Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
ORTHOXYLENE 33 21 28 4 11 18 25 4 11 18 10 10 10 10 10 10
U.S. PRICE PAGE 34 Toluene Blend Value Toluene Spot Nit.
W.E. PRICE PAGE 35 MX Spot PX Spot ~
ASIA PRICE PAGE 36
Client Services Representative The recent bearish influence of Asia on the U.S. BTX markets has been on
Stephanie Kirby - Aromatics a collision course with the seasonal support provided as domestic gasoline
[email protected] prices appreciate. In March we have seen the first minor skirmishes and
1-(281)752-3258
Mollie Pampell - Aromatics thus far (and not unexpectedly) U.S. gasoline has arguably prevailed. Mar-
[email protected] gins over gasoline have predictably been squeezed and BTX prices are now
1-(281)752-3260
on a more normal upward course. Despite domestic support, the track re-
INTERNET ACCESS mains somewhat subdued as the derivative export markets lack the whole-
www.cmaiglobal.com
email - [email protected] sale confidence necessary to sustain the cost-push and regain some mar-
gin. High domestic olefins prices are also making the job of exporting
CONSULTANTS
derivatives much more challenging but there are signs that prices may be
Mark A. Fisler
[email protected]
moderating slightly which should provide support some pick up in rates.
Toluene/Mixed Xylenes
R. Chase Willett
[email protected] Benzene & Derivatives Overview
Paraxylene/Terephthalates/ Dollars Per Metric Ton
2,000
Polyester/Orthoxylene
1,800
Marc Laughlin 1,600
[email protected]
1,400
Cumene/Phenol/Acetone
1,200
Simon Palmer
[email protected] 1,000
Benzene/Toluene/Mixed Xylenes 800
[email protected] 400
Styrene 200
Weekly History Monthly Forecast
0
Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
21 28 4 11 18 25 4 11 18 10 10 10 10 10 10
Benzene Spot Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot
©Copyright CMAI 2010
~
All Rights Reserved
ThisThis report
report is the
is for for exclusive
the exclusive use
use of theofclient
the client company.
company. Distribution
Distribution outsideoutside
of the of the company
client client company is
is strictly
strictly prohibited without the prior written consent of Chemical Market Associates,
prohibited without the prior written consent of Chemical Market Associates, Inc. (CMAI). Inc. (CMAI).
The prices presented herein are strictly the opinion of CMAI and are based on information collected within the public
sector and on assessments by CMAI staff. CMAI MAKES NO GUARANTEE OR WARRANTY AND ASSUMES
NO LIABILITY AS TO THEIR USE.
North America Aromatics Market Report PRICE FORECAST
Current Prices
Assumptions
WTI Naphtha Natural Gas North America Exchange Rate United States
Crude Oil spot average Gasoline Spot Average Toluene
$/bbl Cts/Gal $/MMBTU Cts/Gal Cts/Gal $/€ Cts/Gal
Notes FOB USGC Deliv. USGC Premium FOB USGC Regular FOB USGC blend value
09 Nov 285.0 286.8 547.0 831.0 861.8 254.7 773.0 806.6 256.9 781.0 846.3
Dec 298.0 322.5 570.0 953.0 960.2 272.5 814.0 873.7 283.0 830.0 896.5
10 Jan 355.0 373.5 759.0 1091.8 1040.6 290.2 880.6 930.7 303.8 878.0 943.8
Feb 369.0 352.3 723.0 1007.0 945.0 273.2 844.0 862.2 277.1 860.0 861.9
Mar 343.0 329.0 741.0 995.0 890.0 276.0 822.0 843.0 285.0 831.0 869.7
09 Q2 197.7 226.8 448.3 687.1 661.6 214.5 642.3 660.7 226.6 743.7 750.5
Q3 312.0 313.9 658.7 895.0 815.1 250.1 751.3 768.0 245.8 813.0 813.1
Q4 281.0 294.4 540.7 870.7 860.8 258.0 777.3 805.5 258.9 783.7 835.7
10 Q1 355.7 351.6 741.0 1031.3 958.5 279.8 848.9 878.6 288.6 856.3 891.8
09 Nov 273.6 -11.4 43.01 48.12 54.50 46.56 45.25 99.00 61.75
Dec 285.5 -12.5 46.50 50.03 58.75 50.68 51.34 99.00 63.00
10 Jan 339.7 -15.3 51.77 59.05 67.00 59.15 59.00 106.50 71.00
Feb 348.6 -20.4 55.39 60.96 68.25 60.71 59.19 114.00 78.00
Mar 324.0 -19.0 52.70 60.96 68.25 60.69 59.11 113.00 76.00
09 Nov 47.25 42.72 933.0 1005.0 44.17 48.51 73.75 42.00 0.00 49.50
Dec 52.25 48.72 1031.0 1105.0 47.52 51.77 76.75 44.00 0.00 54.00
Jan 53.75 46.68 1063.0 1135.0 48.82 53.33 79.75 48.00 0.00 56.00
10 Feb 52.00 45.10 1004.0 1100.0 47.65 52.33 81.25 47.00 0.00 60.00
Mar 50.50 44.53 1000.0 1065.0 46.65 51.44 81.25 47.00 0.00 59.00
09 Q2 47.83 45.09 949.0 1005.0 44.06 45.70 73.00 37.50 0.00 47.17
Q3 49.83 43.73 918.7 1058.3 45.47 47.92 76.58 40.00 0.00 51.83
Q4 47.08 43.15 931.3 998.3 44.05 48.44 74.50 41.17 0.00 51.83
10 Q1 52.08 45.44 1022.3 1100.0 47.71 52.37 80.75 47.33 0.00 58.33
General Notes: see page 4 unsettled The decision to publish or not to publish is solely at the discretion of CMAI staff.
10 Apr 332.0 337.0 378.6 311.2 298.6 283.0 301.6 1082.5 56.13 49.46
May 340.0 343.0 380.1 313.4 294.5 285.0 309.5 1064.1 57.22 50.62
Jun 345.0 342.0 372.6 312.3 286.2 285.0 313.4 1055.0 57.89 51.61
Jul 340.0 333.0 361.7 310.8 271.9 281.0 315.9 1018.3 57.21 51.01
Aug 330.0 324.0 342.8 295.2 260.1 275.0 305.1 1009.1 55.89 49.91
Sep 321.0 324.0 337.8 290.6 252.8 272.0 300.7 999.9 54.70 48.83
2008 357.3 345.1 369.5 363.6 296.3 307.2 351.8 1738.2 64.15 57.13
2009 228.1 240.0 268.1 257.9 153.6 220.8 224.3 826.5 40.44 34.45
2010 334.8 332.4 352.1 297.3 276.3 276.8 312.3 1056.1 56.61 50.53
2011 320.2 319.8 342.5 297.1 268.3 269.6 306.8 1193.8 56.32 50.06
10 Apr 281.0 291.0 269.7 65.00 56.21 53.78 108.00 72.00 65.81
May 287.0 292.0 272.9 64.00 55.93 53.50 107.00 71.00 65.79
Jun 288.0 287.0 272.9 63.00 55.20 52.77 84.00 67.00 64.81
Jul 283.0 277.0 266.3 62.00 54.00 51.29 83.00 66.00 63.83
Aug 273.0 279.0 254.0 61.00 53.00 49.96 82.00 65.00 62.85
Sep 275.0 286.0 246.7 61.00 53.00 50.25 82.00 65.00 62.84
2008 303.5 311.9 319.6 73.15 63.24 59.81 108.63 79.30 73.62
2009 221.0 231.2 217.0 49.63 41.47 36.81 89.67 55.37 49.62
2010 278.3 283.0 255.3 63.79 55.55 52.96 93.96 69.25 65.30
2011 275.3 278.7 255.0 62.00 53.42 51.10 83.50 66.42 64.17
General Notes: see page 4 The decision to publish or not to publish is solely at the discretion of CMAI staff.
March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 3
North America Aromatics Market Report PRICE FORECAST
10 Apr 281.0 16.8 52.00 0.31 47.98 39.78 82.75 63.66 48.00 9.22 48.53 13.53
May 287.0 19.6 54.25 1.43 49.49 41.10 80.75 62.97 48.50 8.89 40.37 9.15
Jun 288.0 20.5 56.50 3.35 51.00 42.40 80.50 62.93 49.00 9.25 37.19 7.33
Jul 283.0 22.1 54.00 1.84 49.32 40.82 77.75 60.68 48.00 8.94 33.57 8.21
Aug 273.0 24.4 52.00 1.58 47.98 39.58 76.25 59.60 47.00 9.32 33.57 8.44
Sep 275.0 33.6 49.50 -1.08 46.31 38.04 75.00 58.29 47.00 9.05 34.47 7.29
2008 303.5 -8.2 57.88 0.56 52.70 45.58 87.23 73.63 51.13 9.24 53.34 19.76
2009 221.0 9.3 45.83 3.14 43.11 35.74 72.81 55.75 37.92 7.42 31.68 11.41
2010 278.3 28.6 52.02 0.63 47.92 39.87 78.27 61.40 47.42 9.02 39.12 9.62
2011 275.3 26.5 52.92 1.29 48.61 40.94 76.63 61.67 47.04 9.04 35.91 9.01
General Notes:
1. All contract prices are on a delivered basis before discounts.
2. CMAI does not normally publish contract prices when discussions are actively in progress.
3. Prices relate to North American markets.
4. Since Q1 2006, the OX quarterly price is the average of the three monthly prices.
5. Highlighted prices indicate those that have not yet settled as of the time of writing and are therefore subject to change.
6. HDA Cash Cost with Toluene at Chemical
7. HDA Cash Cost with Toluene at Blend Value
8. Pygas cash costs with Raffinate at Market.
9. Cash cost of hydrogen production based on steam reforming of natural gas.
10. Phenol cash cost is based on non-integrated business.
11. Mixed Xylenes cash cost calculated on extraction basis.
12. Styrene cash cost based on conventional EB / SM technology
13. Polystyrene Cash Cost is for High Heat Crystal on a delivered basis.
14. Paraxylene margin is on a pre-tax, nonintegrated basis
15. MEG margin is for fibre grade, contract sales on an non-integrated basis
16. Margins are on a cash cost before tax basis
These price forecasts are stricly the opinion of the staff of CMAI, and are based on information in the public sector.
CMAI makes no warantee or guarantee as to their use. CMAI does not normally publish price forecasts when discussions
are in progress. The decision to publish or not to publish is solely at the discretion of CMAI personnel.
U.S. Crude and Crack Spreads NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Strip
Cents Per Gallon Dollars Per Barrel
450 86
Forecast Sources: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Purvin & Gertz
400 84
350 82
300 80
250 78
200 76
150 74
100 72
50 70
February-10 June-10 October-10 February-11
0
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 CMAI Forecast
March Contract Expiration
Source: Purvin & Gertz WTI 3/2/1 Crack ~ February Contract Expiration ~
365 16
345 15
325
14
305
13
285
12
265
For Week Ending: March 12, 2010
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) 11
245
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5-Year Range 2008 2009 2010
Five-Year Range 2008 2009 2010 ~ Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) ~
North America
NAPHTHA February Average March Average REFORMATE February Average March Average
Price US$/MT 685.96 739.26 Price US$/MT 739.35 802.00
Delta US$/MT + 53.30 (+7.77%) Delta US$/MT + 62.65 (+8.47%)
15
75
10
50 5
0
25
-5
-10
0
-15
-25 -20
Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2008 Jul-2008 Jan-2009 Jul-2009 Jan-2010 Jul-2010 Jan-2011 Jul-2011
Naphtha over WTI Crude 100 RON Reformate over Naphtha Ethylene Margin from Naphtha Naphtha Delta to Unleaded Regular
Source: Purvin & Gertz; CMAI ~ Source: Purvin & Gertz; CMAI ~
85 202
9.0 5.5
80 190
12 29 6.5 3.0
9 21 For Week Ending: March 12, 2010
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
6 14 6.0 2.5
3 7 January April July October
0 0 Gasoline, 5-Year Range Distillate, 5-Year Range
RUL Gasoline to WTI Crude Oil Spread
~ Gasoline, 2009 Gasoline, 2010
PUL Gasoline to RUL Gasoline Spread
Distillate, 2009 Distillate, 2010
U.S. Daily Gasoline Price History 2005-2010 U.S. Motor Gasoline Production
Cents Per Gallon (Four-Week Moving Average)
440 -000,000- Barrels Per Day For Week Ending: March 12, 2010
9.5
400 NYMEX USGC CASH
360
9.0
320
280
8.5
240
200
8.0
160
200 195
180
185
160
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
140 175
Sep-2009 Dec-2009 Mar-2010 Jun-2010 Sep-2010 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Naphtha Prices Reformate Prices
Weight-Average BTX Prices ~ Five-Year Range 2008 2009 2010 ~
Toluene Regional Pricing 2007-2010 U.S. Gulf Coast Mixed Xylene Daily Pricing Versus
U.S. Dollars Per Metric Ton
MOGAS Blend Value 2008-2010
Cents Per Gallon
1300 520
1200 480
1100 440
400
1000
360
900
320
800
280
700 240
600 200
500 160
400 120
80
300
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10
Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10
USGC Spot Toluene and Mixed Xylenes North America Toluene and Mixed Xylene Production
Volumes, 2009-2010 Capacity Losses 2010
-000- Barrels
1600 14%
* Volumes for March are on a month-to-date basis.
1400 12%
1200
10%
1000
8%
800
600 6%
400
4%
200
2%
0
M-09 A-09 M-09 J-09 J-09 A-09 S-09 O-09 N-09 D-09 J-10 F-10 M-10
0%
Toluene, Nitration-Grade Toluene, Commercial-Grade Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mixed Xylenes, Spot ~ TOL MXY ~
• Seasonal trends have begun to take shape in toluene and xylenes markets over the course of March. While prices
stagnated for most this month, energy surged ahead, with WTI crude oil gaining six percent so far on February
prices and RBOB gasoline prices gaining thirteen percent. This has had the effect of considerably redcucing the
margins that producers had from extracting aromatics out of reformate. As prices for gasoline have increased,
blend values for aromatics have gone up noticeably, though, trending very seasonally. CMAI’s Benchmark
Toluene Blend Value price has matched gasoline’s increase of thirteen percent month-to-date.
0 0 0 0
-50 -20 -60 -12
3/5/2009 5/14/2009 7/23/2009 10/1/2009 12/10/2009 2/18/2010 10/15/2009 11/12/2009 12/10/2009 1/7/2010 2/4/2010 3/4/2010
Delta Toluene Spot Price
Toluene, Spot, FOB USGC Alternative Toluene Value (STDP)
Toluene, Octane ~ STDP Margin ~
• On the supply side, turnaround season for many aro- 1,200 120
1,000 100
matics producers looks to be windling down as the 800 80
amount of downed capacity as compared to February 600 60
is off significantly. While the potential for more output 400 40
• Xylenes present much the same picture; while potential supply sources seem to be up from February, operat-
ing rates have corrected downward in response as overall demand does not seem to be pushing prices upward.
While increasing so far in March, spot paraxylene prices are really only keeping up with the increases in naphtha
prices. Current xylenes-to-paraxylene spreads March have increased to over $150 per ton from lower levels in
late February / early March; however, spreads from naphtha-to-xylenes have tightened to around $75 per ton.
120 300
60 100
100 250
30 50
80 200
0 0 60 150
40 100
-30 -50
20 50
-60 -100
0 0
Other W. Europe Asia Delta: Asia Spot - U.S. Spot Other W. Europe Asia Delta: Asia Spot - U.S. Contract
~ ~
were level at times between the U.S. and Asia, volumes 1,000
on the order of 100 kT of material moved from the 800
U.S. to Asia. This pattern of trade, with large volumes
600
moving despite low price discrepancies between the
regions, could catch on in the early months of the year 400
relatively cheap. 0
3/5/2009 5/14/2009 7/23/2009 10/1/2009 12/10/2009 2/18/2010
Xylenes Spread over Naphtha Paraxylene Spread over Xylenes
PRICE FORECAST Naphtha Mixed Xylenes, Spot
Paraxylene, Spot
~
• With the arrival of gasoline season, traditional rela-
tionships to energy are beginning to become more pronounced. While both toluene and xylenes prices look to
appreciate on the back of gasoline, spreads to naphtha and gasoline will remain at compressed levels throughout
the better part of the summer months. Xylenes should hold a small premium to toluene prices in the near months
as material continues to move to Asia.
U.S. Toluene and Mixed Xylenes U.S. Toluene and Mixed Xylenes Spreads,
Cents Per Gallon Price Forecast Forecast Period
Cents Per Gallon
450
100
Forecast Source: Purvin & Gertz; CMAI
90 Forecast
400
80
350 70
60
300
50
250 40
30
200
20
150 10
0
100 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011
50
UL Regular over UL Premium
100RON Reformate over UL Premium
T/X Blend Value over Reformate
0
Blend Value
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Toluene over T/X Blend Value
Toluene Nitration Spot Mixed Xylenes Contract ~ Mixed Xylenes over T/X Blend Value ~
combination of a relatively strong crude price, Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010
low inventories and seasonal improvement in Source: CMAI BTX Mix Value Benzene over BTX Mix ~
Supply Outlook
U.S. Benzene Production Outlook
Million Metric Tons
Feedstocks and Costs 2.0
1.8
• Crude oil futures are currently near $82 per 1.6
supply remains constrained although there has Other W. Europe Asia Delta: Asia Spot - U.S. Contract
~
been some relaxation in spot prices, at least on
ethylene. Pygas make remains a mix of slightly heavier feed slates but with the aforementioned operational
constraints. Pygas off-take for extraction has been nice and steady.
Imports
• The long supply chain from Asia continues drive volatility. Beginning in the month, the long shadow of continued
imports arriving from Asia, caused spot prices to fall but just recently a spike in European benzene prices has
pulled the North American spot prices up. With the incremental benzene supply in Asia, relief is a long ways
away and now more imports are needed, not less. History suggests that operational issues do not last long and
market participants are wary that imports will arrive as supply improves.
Adipic Acid Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Phenol Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 EPS Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10
Production 342 343 345 Production 1066 1033 1045 Production 151 181 190
NMPLT. Op. Rate 51% 51% 52% NMPLT. Op. Rate 72% 69% 69% Op. Rate 66% 78% 80%
Total Demand 355 356 358 Total Demand 1067 1035 1046 Total Demand 186 209 211
Demand Outlook
Cents Per Gallon
U.S. Benzene Netback Values
700
Derivative Operations
600
high. The ethylene situation is now rapidly Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10
250
Exports 200
150
• Demand for styrene exports dried up in March
100
as the tight ethylene market pushed incremental
50
costs up above the respective netback prices
in Asia and Europe. The Asian New Year 0
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11
holidays understandably slowed demand but ~
hopes were than demand would increase after
the participants returned to work. Instead sup- U.S. Benzene Short-term Price Forecast
ply issues in Europe has increased the netback Build-up
Cents Per Gallon
and demand for imports from the U.S. Styrene 500
is flowing that direction to some degree while
Forecast
450
Dow’s recent force majeure announcement 400
350
in phenol has limited supply and reduced the
material available for export. 300
250
200
Price and Margin Forecast 150
100
Prices 50
0
• For most of the month, the backwardation in the Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011
CRUDE WTI NAPHTHA ULR ULP REF TLN BV BZE
benzene market has pointed towards a lower
Source: Purvin & Gertz; CMAI ~
benzene contract price in April but recently
another run up in European benzene prices has
all about thrown this forecast out the window. U.S. Benzene to Naphtha Short-term Forecast
There is time before the end of the month for Cents Per Gallon
events in Europe to cool but time is rapidly 300
Forecast
running out and there is a real possibility that 250
100
Differentials
50
has shrunk over the past few months and was -50
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Benzene Analysis
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2004
source of manufacturing, marketing, - 201
4
economic and forecast information.
from the US to Europe. In the short term, TOTAL 289 204 218 289 42% 32%
Units: Millions of Pounds Source: U.S. Dept. of Com. & CMAI estimates
spot styrene prices will be set by the higher
of costs or the European net back. ~ Styrene Trade: Arbitrage & Producer Margins
$65
• Cash Costs – North American styrene pro- $59
ducers no longer have the luxury of low
North America West Europe Northeast Asia
costs in early 2010. Despite all of the atten- $ 1,310 $ 1,332 $ 1,249
tion paid to benzene, it is really ethylene that $48 $45
$45 $40
has been driving the market recently. The
tight ethylene market has limited the ability South America Middle East Southeast Asia
of styrene producers to hit their production
$ 1,355 $ 1,209
• Spot Prices – Styrene spot prices have been relatively steady in March. The tight ethylene market has kept
the styrene price from following benzene lower and the lack of demand has kept styrene from moving higher.
The styrene spot market has been limited to co-producers and South America in March. In April, the styrene
spot price will be set by the higher of costs and U.S. Styrene Balance
Million Pounds % Operating Rate
the European netback. Spot styrene prices are 3,600 100
squeeze styrene margins. Styrene producers are Net Exports Domestic Demand Oper. Rate (Available)
~
expected to be in slightly better shape in April as
spot ethylene prices ease and the export market begins to reopen. Despite the poor styrene margins, remember
that integrated styrene producers are still making money in the chain.
• Trade: Trade data are now updated through January 2010 and 2010 has started out with extremely strong
exports to Asia. This is pretty impressive when you consider that Dow has permanently shut down the styrene
plant at Freeport, TX and the slow PO demand has restrained SM production from POSM facilities. Volumes
for 2010 are 32 percent higher than in 2009 and 42 percent higher than in 2008. It’s a great start but it is not
expected to hold up.
• Exports to Europe – Exports to Europe have taken a back seat to exports to Asia. Recently, the high North
American ethylene prices have kept North American styrene producers from having a competitive cost structure
so nothing has moved. Planned and unplanned issues in Europe in the near term are expected to open the arb
to Europe but starting in 2010, exports to Europe have been slow. Volumes in 2010 as of January 2010 are 63
percent lower than 2009 but are 96 percent higher than in 2008.
• Exports to Asia – Exports to Asia started the year strong as China was stimulating the economy but as 2010
progressed, China began to start to pull back on some of the stimulus. The market understandably slowed as
Polystyrene Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 U.S. STYRENE & MAJOR DERIVATIVES SBL Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10
Production 996 1085 992 March 2010 Production 206 210 215
Op. Rate 77.4 83.3 75.3 Op. Rate 63.5 64.1 65.0
Total Demand 1027 1131 1023
STYRENE Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 ABS/SAN/Other Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10
EPS Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Production 2057 2156 2087 Production 395 409 419
Production 151 181 190 Nameplate Op. Rate 74.6 77.3 74.0 Op. Rate 78.0 80.7 82.7
Op. Rate 65.6 77.6 80.3 Effective Op. Rate 78.5 82.4 78.6 Total Demand 406 424 445
Total Demand 186 209 211 Imports 325 300 300
Domestic Demand * 1637 1766 1667 SBR Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10
% of Styrene Dom. Demand Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Exports 745 690 720 Production 270 270 279
Polystyrene 59% 60% 58% Total Demand 2382 2456 2387 Op. Rate 46.1 45.6 46.6
EPS 8% 9% 10% Inventory 395 395 395
ABS/SAN/Other 8% 8% 8% Inventory (Days) 14.9 14.6 15.2 UNITS: Million Pounds
SBL 7% 7% 7%
SBR 4% 4% 4% * Includes listed and balance of domestic demand - PS, EPS, & ABS data includes Canada
Exports % of Total Demand 31% 28% 30% - Total demand includes exports (Canada not included in styrene demand) ~
Asia began celebrating Asian New Year but Rundate: 3/19/2010 11:15 AM CMAI Capacity Database
• On March 2, Dow announced the signing of a definitive agreement to sell Dow’s Styron Division to an affiliate of
Bain Capital for $1.63 billion. The transaction provides Dow an option to receive up to 15 percent of the equity
of Styron and includes long-term supply, service and purchase agreements. The transaction is expected to close
by August 2010 subject to the completion of the customary conditions and obtaining regulatory approvals.
All CMAI General Warranties and Disclaimers Apply
©2010 CMAI, All Rights Reserved To view visit http://elmo.cmaiglobal.com/default.aspx/Warranty.htm 1 of 1
• The agreement marks the exit of one of the major global styrene producers. BASF has also indicated their desire
to exit the styrenics business and has recently sold off some pieces of the business such as a styrene plant in
Korea and a polystyrene plant in Brazil. BASF has announced that they are working on a potential joint venture
but so far nothing definitive has been announced.
• The sale of Dow Styron to Bain Capital by itself will not have much of an impact on the North American styrene
market. One could argue that the recession and the sale process has already created the significant changes with
the shutdown of Dow’s styrene facility in Freeport, TX and one styrene line in Europe. By the finalization of the
sale in late 2010, Dow’s ownership interest in styrene will be limited to their 15 percent option in Dow Styron.
Dow’s 50% ownership in Americas Styrenics is included in the sale of Dow Styron.
• With the disposition of Dow’s styrenics business clarified, the disposition of BASF’s styrenics business and
LyondellBasell’s emergence from bankruptcy now become the focus of attention. For North American styrene,
supply remains long and it will take an acquisition by a current player to significantly change the equation.
• Domestic Demand – Domestic demand has slowed in the second half of March as inventories are pulled down
in anticipation of lower prices in April. The combination of lower prices and a seasonal uptick in demand is
expected in April. This will help styrene producers but it is export demand that is needed to balance the supply.
Additionally, nearly half of the demand is stymied by butadiene or polybutadiene rubber today.
• Export Demand – Export demand has been slow in March as North American styrene prices were pushed up-
wards by a tight ethylene market. The arb to Europe and Asia were closed. Although many were hopeful that
Asia prices would rebound after the Asian New Year holidays, this has not occurred. Planned and unplanned
outages in Europe are expected to push European styrene prices higher. This is expected to open the arb to
Europe unfortunately for the trade there is not a lot of spot availability in April.
• Production/Inventory – Inventories continued to grow in late February and March but is now being corrected.
The tight ethylene market reduced styrene production and helped keep the imbalance in line. Unfortunately
the lack of an export market continued to push inventories upwards until a large parcel was purchased by South
America and some parcels headed to Europe. As we indicated before, styrene inventories could quickly go from
long to short with a little bit of export demand.
• Planned/Unplanned Outages – In April, Cosmar, the Total and SABIC IP JV, will be down for an ethylbenzene
and styrene turnaround. There are other facilities that are production constrained due to low PO demand and
market conditions but the turnaround season in North America is light this year.
• Contrary to PS and EPS, the styrene derivatives that require butadiene are already beginning to suffer from the
high price of butadiene and supply constraints. This is expected to get worse, not better as the year progresses.
Half of the styrene demand, requires butadiene or PBR, this will hamper the normal demand pull for styrene
into these derivatives.
• Overall, we are optimistic about improving styrene demand in April but some of this will be due to inventory
adjustments and underlying demand will have to kick in as well to keep the wheel rolling.
Demand 0
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
~
• As mentioned above, demand is currently
robust as producers of nylon intermediates U.S. CYCLOHEXANE IMPORTS
are continuing to run at high rates. Demand January Year-to-date (through January) Percent Change
for cyclohexane has also been particularly Imports From: 2010 2008 2009 2010 10 vs 08 10 vs 09
good during the past month as the current tight Netherlands 12.0 13.4 6.1 12.0 -10% 96%
supply of phenol has impacted those produc- China 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - -
ers which use phenol as a feedstock for their Brazil 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 -100% -
Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - -
caprolactam and adipic acid operations. Fur-
thermore, demand for U.S. exports of capro- TOTAL
Units: Thousand Tons
12.0 15.9 6.1 12.0 -24% 96%
Source: U.S. Dept. of Com. & CMAI estimates
lactam into Asia remains strong. Meanwhile,
domestic demand for nylon fiber continues to
be flat with no growth in sight. On the other U.S. CYCLOHEXANE EXPORTS
hand, demand for engineering resins from the January Year-to-date (through January) Percent Change
Exports to: 2010 2008 2009 2010 10 vs 08 10 vs 09
U.S. automotive sector has seen some slight
growth despite the recent drop in production Mexico 7.0 8.0 0.0 7.0 -12% 18391%
levels from Toyota which has been plagued Switzerland 7.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 - -
by public concerns regarding the safety of its Colombia
Others
1.1
0.2
0.0
8.4
0.0
7.8
1.1
0.2
-
-98%
-
-98%
vehicles. However, the impact of this issue
TOTAL 15.3 16.4 7.9 15.3 -7% 94%
on nylon demand may not become apparent Units: Thousand Tons Source: U.S. Dept. of Com. & CMAI estimates
until the next few months as their automobile
inventories reach lower levels.
Costs
• Production costs in the U.S. are estimated to have seen a significant drop in March as contract benzene for this
month settled at $3.43 per gallon, a drop of 7 percent when compared to February’s price. Meanwhile, spot
benzene prices during March continued to drop and were approaching $3.20 per gallon by midmonth, although
prices have now ticked higher, we could see a drop for April’s settlement. U.S. natural gas prices have also been
on a downward trend as inventories remain ample and home-heating demand begins to die down with warmer
temperatures. By mid-March, NYMEX prices had reached levels near $4.35 per MMBtu, which is a 16 percent
decrease when compared to the same period in February.
• With domestic production rates back to normal, March seemed to be a more active month in terms of trade—
although not by much—with a modest flow of product from the U.S. headed for South America. Furthermore,
there has been talk of interest in moving cyclohexane from the Americas into West Europe, but there have been
no confirmed transactions. Nonetheless, we will probably see some activity between U.S. and European traders
when March statistics become available. In the meantime, U.S. trade data is now available for January, which
show exports totaling 15.2 KT, a 25 percent drop when compared to December, but nevertheless a level very
much in line with those seen in previous years (with the exception of the terrible 2009 when January exports
were down 50 percent from this year’s level ). More specifically, January exports were primarily destined to
Mexico (7 KT), Switzerland (7 KT), and Colombia (1 KT).
Following the withdrawal of the Refinery Grade Propylene (RGP) contract price, CMAI has been basing its cumene
formula prices on the spot weighted average propylene price reported on the first Friday of each month. In Janu-
ary 2008, CMAI began reporting a new propylene marker entitled “Refinery Grade Propylene Weighted Average
Acquisition”. This price is the weighted combination of spot and contract transactions for the current month. We
continue to use the spot weighted average RGP price for our cumene contract price; however, we will consider
moving to the RGP Weighted Average Acquisition price if market participants start to adopt this price reference.
Price/Economics
U U.S. Cumene Raw Materials Relationship
0
52.70 cents per pound. Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11
Market
• The capacity in Corpus Christi, Texas is running following repairs required after the fire that erupted at the end
of last year and rates are believed to be at or near their maximums in support of the continued strong demand
pull from phenol due to domestic consumption into phenol derivatives, some of which are being exported to
Asia to help feed the demand for that region. Refinery grade propylene prices have climbed up and now hover
around 60 cents per pound; cumene’s formula price nature allows for a fairly straight forward passing of this
cost down the chain. It is the phenol/acetone business that will find the increase harder to handle.
keep domestic refinery grade propylene supply Imports (157.2/-61.1) Exports (-21.5/21.1) Net Exports (-29.1/34.1) Operating Rate
60
50
40
30
20
1200
1000
800
600
200
0
Q1-08 Q3-08 Q1-09 Q3-09 Q1-10 Q3-10 Q1-11 Q3-11
Other Cumene Demand Domestic Phenol Demand
Cumene Exports Phenol Net Exports
Capacity, Nameplate ~
Price/Economics
U.S. Phenol/Raw Materials Monthly Price Change
Dollars Per Metric Ton, Month Dollars Per MetricTon, Year Cumulative
• U.S. benzene contract prices rose by 14 cents 400 850
challenging. 40
30
20
Trade 10
0
40
margins. 400
300
MARGINS 200
100
• With the 1.5 cent per pound ($33 per ton) de- 0
crease in contract prices, producers will face Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul-10 Aug- Sep-
09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
a weighted average decline in margins of over PX Over Crude PX Over MX Blend Value
PX Over MX Contract PX Over Naphtha
$150 per ton as the lower sales price collides PX Over Regular Gasoline ~
with a roughly $130 per ton weighted average
increase in feedstock costs. Weighted average
margins could drop below $50 per ton, their U.S. PX Exports
Thousand Metric Tons
lowest point since November. 200
180
600 80
200
FORWARD VIEW 0
-200
• We expect that demand for polyester bottles Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10
will continue to pick up in April and the next Before-Tax Margin Direct Fixed Costs Variable Costs
Feedstock Costs PX Contract ~
several months with improved weather. The
startup of AlphaPET’s second train at Decatur,
United States PX Prices & Margins
Alabama should also give a temporary shot in Delivered Basis - Industry Average Production Costs
the arm for PTA and PX demand. Dollars Per Metric Ton
1,600
% Operating Rate
100
1,400 90
• Crude oil and octane values are moving up with 1,200
the startup of gasoline season. This is pressur-
80
1,000
ing the alternative values of PX molecules and 800
70
SUPPLY/DEMAND/TRADE 0
5 kt to South Africa. 70
60
38 kt. 40 I
30
FORECAST 20
10
startup of AlphaPET’s second PET line. This improvement will be short lived however as the supply is not
needed in the market place.
• We project that PTA contract prices will increase over 1.5 cents per pound in April and that much again in both
May and June with stronger PX markets globally. We do not expect for Asia’s price advantage to come back in
the near future.
~
CMAI - Headquarters Regional Offices
11757 Katy Freeway, Suite 700
Houston, TX 77079 USA Dubai - Düsseldorf - London
Tel: 1-281-531-4660 New York - Shanghai - Singapore
Chemicals - Plastics - Fibers
Fax: 1-281-531-9966
PRICING/ECONOMICS
February Price Settlement – we have published our February PET benchmark prices as settled at an
increase of 1.5 cents per pound from January. Raw material costs increased roughly 0.6 cents per pound
but producers held on for increases of up to 2 cents per pound in most cases as they attempted to recover
lost margin from the last several months. Many producers did indeed achieve increases of 2 cents per
pound for their market based prices. We increased our benchmark price 1.5 cents per pound based on the
lower increase in raw material plus contracts which average the overall industry down and our belief that
net prices over the past several months have not moved up quite to the extent of our published increases
for the same period. Net pricing for February was generally in the low to mid 60s (cents per pound).
of 4 cents per pound for April. They cite PET Cash Cost - Merchant PTA
PET Contract
PET Cash Cost - Integrated PTA
Margin, Merch PTA
concern over possible raw material increases Margin, Integ PTA
~
and the need to improve their economics to a
sustainable level.
• PET bottle demand has picked up some in the Dollars Per Metric Ton
1800
soft drink and sports drink sectors but water is 1600
800
600
• Demand for recycled bottles has picked up 400
-200
ity enters the market. 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
PX Comp PTA Comp
40
TRADE 35
30
• Imports from non-NAFTA countries fell in Jan- 25
uary (the latest data available) to 23.6 thousand 20
tons (kt). This is well below the 30 kt imported 15
0
the extreme price competition amongst U.S. Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10
producers and the loss of the raw material ad- Middle East South America Other Asia
vantage for Asian producers. Asian exporters China Taiwan India
~
are finding it difficult to compete even on the
Indonesia South Korea Thailand
1200 300
• The U.S. had roughly 30 kt of exports in Janu-
ary with over 10.5 kt of that going to Central 1100 200
800 -100
Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep-
09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Asian PX/EG US PX/EG
Asian PTA/EG US PTA/EG
US/Asian PTA based difference Asian Delivered Cost to US EC Customer
Asian Delivered Cost to US EC Customer w/ duty ~
• Spot PX markets in Asia have rebounded and we expect that U.S. contract prices will be pressured every month
through June as octane markets improve with gasoline season.
• We expect that PET costs will increase close to 1.5 cents per pound in April based on the strong movement in
PX. Producers have announced a 4 cent per pound increase in PET prices for April. They will need much of
that to offset raw materials and to get their economics to a point of sustainability.
0 0
Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11
~
CMAI - Headquarters Regional Offices
11757 Katy Freeway, Suite 700
Houston, TX 77079 USA Dubai - Düsseldorf - London
Tel: 1-281-531-4660 New York - Shanghai - Singapore
Chemicals - Plastics - Fibers
Fax: 1-281-531-9966
NOTE: Please refer to the monthly prices on page 2 for explanations of notes.
Styrene
Benzene Cyclohexane Phenol Contract (1,7)
Date Low High Low High Low High Low High
EURO/Ton EURO/Ton EURO/Ton EURO/Ton
Mar 262 262 382 382 685 685 619 644
Apr 381 381 496 496 804 804 640 665
May 439 439 554 554 862 862 733 758
Jun 525 525 640 640 948 948 763 788
Jul 656 656 776 776 1079 1079 811 836
Aug 744 744 864 864 1167 1167 904 915
Sep 576 576 696 696 999 999 968 979
Oct 505 505 631 631 928 928 876 885
Nov 547 547 673 673 970 970 829 854
Dec 570 570 696 696 993 993 816 841
Jan 2010 759 759 894 894 1182 1182 848 873
Feb 723 723 858 858 1146 1146 1019 1044