1.

climate change
noun
noun: climate change; plural noun: climate changes
1. a change in global or regional climate patterns, in particular a change
apparent from the mid to late 20th century onwards and attributed largely to the
increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide produced by the use of fossil fuels.

Climate change
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
For current and future climatological effects of human influences, see global warming. For the
study of past climate change, see paleoclimatology. For temperatures on the longest time scales,
see geologic temperature record.

Atmospheric sciences

Atmospheric physics
Atmospheric dynamics (category)

Atmospheric chemistry (category)

Meteorology

Weather (category) (portal)

Tropical cyclone (category)

Climatology

Climate (category)
 Climate change (category)

Global warming (category) (portal)

Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather
patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in average
weather conditions, or in the distribution of weather around the average conditions (i.e., more or
fewer extreme weather events). Climate change is caused by factors such as biotic processes,
variations in solar radiation received by Earth, plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions. Certain
human activities have also been identified as significant causes of recent climate change, often
referred to as "global warming".[1]

Scientists actively work to understand past and future climate by using observations and
theoretical models. A climate record extending deep into the Earth's past has been
assembled, and continues to be built up, based on geological evidence from borehole temperature
profiles, cores removed from deep accumulations of ice, floral and faunal records, glacial and
periglacial processes, stable-isotope and other analyses of sediment layers, and records of past
sea levels. More recent data are provided by the instrumental record. General circulation models,
based on the physical sciences, are often used in theoretical approaches to match past climate
data, make future projections, and link causes and effects in climate change.

Contents
[hide]

1 Terminology

2 Causes

o 2.1 Internal forcing mechanisms

2.1.1 Ocean variability

o 2.2 External forcing mechanisms

2.2.1 Orbital variations

2.2.2 Solar output

2.2.3 Volcanism

2.2.4 Plate tectonics

2.2.5 Human influences

3 Physical evidence

o 3.1 Temperature measurements and proxies

o 3.2 Historical and archaeological evidence

o 3.3 Glaciers

o 3.4 Arctic sea ice loss

o 3.5 Vegetation

o 3.6 Pollen analysis

o 3.7 Precipitation

o 3.8 Dendroclimatology

o 3.9 Ice cores

o 3.10 Animals

o 3.11 Sea level change

5 Notes

6 References

7 Further reading

8 External links

Terminology
The most general definition of climate change is a change in the statistical properties of the
climate system when considered over long periods of time, regardless of cause.[2] Accordingly,
fluctuations over periods shorter than a few decades, such as El Nio, do not represent climate
change.

The term sometimes is used to refer specifically to climate change caused by human activity, as
opposed to changes in climate that may have resulted as part of Earth's natural processes.[3] In
this sense, especially in the context of environmental policy, the term climate change has become
synonymous with anthropogenic global warming. Within scientific journals, global warming
refers to surface temperature increases while climate change includes global warming and
everything else that increasing greenhouse gas levels will affect.[4]

Causes
On the broadest scale, the rate at which energy is received from the sun and the rate at which it is
lost to space determine the equilibrium temperature and climate of Earth. This energy is
distributed around the globe by winds, ocean currents, and other mechanisms to affect the
climates of different regions.

Factors that can shape climate are called climate forcings or "forcing mechanisms".[5] These
include processes such as variations in solar radiation, variations in the Earth's orbit, mountain-
building and continental drift and changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. There are a variety
of climate change feedbacks that can either amplify or diminish the initial forcing. Some parts of
the climate system, such as the oceans and ice caps, respond slowly in reaction to climate
forcings, while others respond more quickly.

Forcing mechanisms can be either "internal" or "external". Internal forcing mechanisms are
natural processes within the climate system itself (e.g., the thermohaline circulation). External
forcing mechanisms can be either natural (e.g., changes in solar output) or anthropogenic (e.g.,
increased emissions of greenhouse gases).
Whether the initial forcing mechanism is internal or external, the response of the climate system
might be fast (e.g., a sudden cooling due to airborne volcanic ash reflecting sunlight), slow (e.g.
thermal expansion of warming ocean water), or a combination (e.g., sudden loss of albedo in the
arctic ocean as sea ice melts, followed by more gradual thermal expansion of the water).
Therefore, the climate system can respond abruptly, but the full response to forcing mechanisms
might not be fully developed for centuries or even longer.

Internal forcing mechanisms

Scientists generally define the five components of earth's climate system to include atmosphere,
hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere (restricted to the surface soils, rocks, and sediments), and
biosphere.[6] Natural changes in the climate system ("internal forcings") result in internal "climate
variability".[7] Examples include the type and distribution of species, and changes in ocean
currents.

Ocean variability

Main article: Thermohaline circulation

Pacific Decadal Oscillation 1925 to 2010

The ocean is a fundamental part of the climate system, some changes in it occurring at longer
timescales than in the atmosphere, massing hundreds of times more and having very high
thermal inertia (such as the ocean depths still lagging today in temperature adjustment from the
Little Ice Age).[clarification needed][8]

Short-term fluctuations (years to a few decades) such as the El Nio-Southern Oscillation, the
Pacific decadal oscillation, the North Atlantic oscillation, and the Arctic oscillation, represent
climate variability rather than climate change. On longer time scales, alterations to ocean
processes such as thermohaline circulation play a key role in redistributing heat by carrying out a
very slow and extremely deep movement of water and the long-term redistribution of heat in the
world's oceans.
A schematic of modern thermohaline circulation. Tens of millions of years ago, continental plate
movement formed a land-free gap around Antarctica, allowing formation of the ACC which
keeps warm waters away from Antarctica.

Life

Life affects climate through its role in the carbon and water cycles and such mechanisms as
albedo, evapotranspiration, cloud formation, and weathering.[9][10][11] Examples of how life may
have affected past climate include: glaciation 2.3 billion years ago triggered by the evolution of
oxygenic photosynthesis,[12][13] glaciation 300 million years ago ushered in by long-term burial of
decomposition-resistant detritus of vascular land plants (forming coal),[14][15] termination of the
Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum 55 million years ago by flourishing marine phytoplankton,
[16][17]
reversal of global warming 49 million years ago by 800,000 years of arctic azolla blooms,
[18][19]
and global cooling over the past 40 million years driven by the expansion of grass-grazer
ecosystems.[20][21]

External forcing mechanisms

Increase in atmospheric CO2 levels

Milankovitch cycles from 800,000 years ago in the past to 800,000 years in the future.
Variations in CO2, temperature and dust from the Vostok ice core over the last 450,000 years

Orbital variations

Main article: Milankovitch cycles

Slight variations in Earth's orbit lead to changes in the seasonal distribution of sunlight reaching
the Earth's surface and how it is distributed across the globe. There is very little change to the
area-averaged annually averaged sunshine; but there can be strong changes in the geographical
and seasonal distribution. The three types of orbital variations are variations in Earth's
eccentricity, changes in the tilt angle of Earth's axis of rotation, and precession of Earth's axis.
Combined together, these produce Milankovitch cycles which have a large impact on climate and
are notable for their correlation to glacial and interglacial periods,[22] their correlation with the
advance and retreat of the Sahara,[22] and for their appearance in the stratigraphic record.[23]

The IPCC notes that Milankovitch cycles drove the ice age cycles, CO2 followed temperature
change "with a lag of some hundreds of years," and that as a feedback amplified temperature
change.[24] The depths of the ocean have a lag time in changing temperature (thermal inertia on
such scale). Upon seawater temperature change, the solubility of CO2 in the oceans changed, as
well as other factors impacting air-sea CO2 exchange.[25]

Solar output

Main article: Solar variation

Variations in solar activity during the last several centuries based on observations of sunspots and
beryllium isotopes. The period of extraordinarily few sunspots in the late 17th century was the
Maunder minimum.
The Sun is the predominant source of energy input to the Earth. Both long- and short-term
variations in solar intensity are known to affect global climate.

Three to four billion years ago the sun emitted only 70% as much power as it does today. If the
atmospheric composition had been the same as today, liquid water should not have existed on
Earth. However, there is evidence for the presence of water on the early Earth, in the Hadean[26]
[27]
and Archean[28][26] eons, leading to what is known as the faint young Sun paradox.[29]
Hypothesized solutions to this paradox include a vastly different atmosphere, with much higher
concentrations of greenhouse gases than currently exist.[30] Over the following approximately 4
billion years, the energy output of the sun increased and atmospheric composition changed. The
Great Oxygenation Event oxygenation of the atmosphere around 2.4 billion years ago was
the most notable alteration. Over the next five billion years the sun's ultimate death as it becomes
a red giant and then a white dwarf will have large effects on climate, with the red giant phase
possibly ending any life on Earth that survives until that time.

Solar output also varies on shorter time scales, including the 11-year solar cycle[31] and longer-
term modulations.[32] Solar intensity variations are considered to have been influential in
triggering the Little Ice Age,[33] and some of the warming observed from 1900 to 1950. The
cyclical nature of the sun's energy output is not yet fully understood; it differs from the very slow
change that is happening within the sun as it ages and evolves. Research indicates that solar
variability has had effects including the Maunder minimum from 1645 to 1715 A.D., part of the
Little Ice Age from 1550 to 1850 A.D. that was marked by relative cooling and greater glacier
extent than the centuries before and afterward.[34][35] Some studies point toward solar radiation
increases from cyclical sunspot activity affecting global warming, and climate may be influenced
by the sum of all effects (solar variation, anthropogenic radiative forcings, etc.).[36][37]

Interestingly, a 2010 study[38] suggests, that the effects of solar variability on temperature
throughout the atmosphere may be contrary to current expectations.

In an Aug 2011 Press Release,[39] CERN announced the publication in the Nature journal the
initial results from its CLOUD experiment. The results indicate that ionisation from cosmic rays
significantly enhances aerosol formation in the presence of sulphuric acid and water, but in the
lower atmosphere where ammonia is also required, this is insufficient to account for aerosol
formation and additional trace vapours must be involved. The next step is to find more about
these trace vapours, including whether they are of natural or human origin.

Further information: Cosmic ray#Role in climate change

Volcanism
In atmospheric temperature from 1979 to 2010, determined by MSU NASA satellites, effects
appear from aerosols released by major volcanic eruptions (El Chichn and Pinatubo). El Nio is
a separate event, from ocean variability.

Volcanic eruptions release gases and particulates into the atmosphere. Eruptions large enough to
affect climate occur on average several times per century, and cause cooling (by partially
blocking the transmission of solar radiation to the Earth's surface) for a period of a few years.
The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, the second largest terrestrial eruption of the 20th
century[40] (after the 1912 eruption of Novarupta[41]) affected the climate substantially. Global
temperatures decreased by about 0.5 C (0.9 F). The eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815 caused
the Year Without a Summer.[42] Much larger eruptions, known as large igneous provinces, occur
only a few times every hundred million years, but may cause global warming and mass
extinctions.[43]

Volcanoes are also part of the extended carbon cycle. Over very long (geological) time periods,
they release carbon dioxide from the Earth's crust and mantle, counteracting the uptake by
sedimentary rocks and other geological carbon dioxide sinks. The US Geological Survey
estimates are that volcanic emissions are at a much lower level than the effects of current human
activities, which generate 100300 times the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by volcanoes.[44]
A review of published studies indicates that annual volcanic emissions of carbon dioxide,
including amounts released from mid-ocean ridges, volcanic arcs, and hot spot volcanoes, are
only the equivalent of 3 to 5 days of human caused output. The annual amount put out by human
activities may be greater than the amount released by supererruptions, the most recent of which
was the Toba eruption in Indonesia 74,000 years ago.[45]

Although volcanoes are technically part of the lithosphere, which itself is part of the climate
system, the IPCC explicitly defines volcanism as an external forcing agent.[46]

Plate tectonics

Main article: Plate tectonics

Over the course of millions of years, the motion of tectonic plates reconfigures global land and
ocean areas and generates topography. This can affect both global and local patterns of climate
and atmosphere-ocean circulation.[47]

The position of the continents determines the geometry of the oceans and therefore influences
patterns of ocean circulation. The locations of the seas are important in controlling the transfer of
heat and moisture across the globe, and therefore, in determining global climate. A recent
example of tectonic control on ocean circulation is the formation of the Isthmus of Panama about
5 million years ago, which shut off direct mixing between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. This
strongly affected the ocean dynamics of what is now the Gulf Stream and may have led to
Northern Hemisphere ice cover.[48][49] During the Carboniferous period, about 300 to 360 million
years ago, plate tectonics may have triggered large-scale storage of carbon and increased
glaciation.[50] Geologic evidence points to a "megamonsoonal" circulation pattern during the time
of the supercontinent Pangaea, and climate modeling suggests that the existence of the
supercontinent was conducive to the establishment of monsoons.[51]

The size of continents is also important. Because of the stabilizing effect of the oceans on
temperature, yearly temperature variations are generally lower in coastal areas than they are
inland. A larger supercontinent will therefore have more area in which climate is strongly
seasonal than will several smaller continents or islands.

Human influences

Main article: Global warming

In the context of climate variation, anthropogenic factors are human activities which affect the
climate. The scientific consensus on climate change is "that climate is changing and that these
changes are in large part caused by human activities,"[52] and it "is largely irreversible."[53]

Science has made enormous inroads in understanding climate change and its causes, and is
beginning to help develop a strong understanding of current and potential impacts that will affect
people today and in coming decades. This understanding is crucial because it allows decision
makers to place climate change in the context of other large challenges facing the nation and the
world. There are still some uncertainties, and there always will be in understanding a complex
system like Earths climate. Nevertheless, there is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on
multiple lines of research, documenting that climate is changing and that these changes are in
large part caused by human activities. While much remains to be learned, the core phenomenon,
scientific questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the
face of serious scientific debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations.

United States National Research Council, Advancing the Science of Climate Change

Of most concern in these anthropogenic factors is the increase in CO2 levels due to emissions
from fossil fuel combustion, followed by aerosols (particulate matter in the atmosphere) and the
CO2 released by cement manufacture. Other factors, including land use, ozone depletion, animal
agriculture[54] and deforestation, are also of concern in the roles they play both separately and in
conjunction with other factors in affecting climate, microclimate, and measures of climate
variables.

Physical evidence
Comparisons between Asian Monsoons from 200 A.D. to 2000 A.D. (staying in the background
on other plots), Northern Hemisphere temperature, Alpine glacier extent (vertically inverted as
marked), and human history as noted by the U.S. NSF.

Arctic temperature anomalies over a 100 year period as estimated by NASA. Typical high
monthly variance can be seen, while longer-term averages highlight trends.

Evidence for climatic change is taken from a variety of sources that can be used to reconstruct
past climates. Reasonably complete global records of surface temperature are available
beginning from the mid-late 19th century. For earlier periods, most of the evidence is indirect
climatic changes are inferred from changes in proxies, indicators that reflect climate, such as
vegetation, ice cores,[55] dendrochronology, sea level change, and glacial geology.

Temperature measurements and proxies

The instrumental temperature record from surface stations was supplemented by radiosonde
balloons, extensive atmospheric monitoring by the mid-20th century, and, from the 1970s on,
with global satellite data as well. The 18O/16O ratio in calcite and ice core samples used to deduce
ocean temperature in the distant past is an example of a temperature proxy method, as are other
climate metrics noted in subsequent categories.

Historical and archaeological evidence

Main article: Historical impacts of climate change

Decline in thickness of glaciers worldwide over the past half-century

Glaciers

Glaciers are considered among the most sensitive indicators of climate change.[57] Their size is
determined by a mass balance between snow input and melt output. As temperatures warm,
glaciers retreat unless snow precipitation increases to make up for the additional melt; the
converse is also true.

Glaciers grow and shrink due both to natural variability and external forcings. Variability in
temperature, precipitation, and englacial and subglacial hydrology can strongly determine the
evolution of a glacier in a particular season. Therefore, one must average over a decadal or
longer time-scale and/or over a many individual glaciers to smooth out the local short-term
variability and obtain a glacier history that is related to climate.

A world glacier inventory has been compiled since the 1970s, initially based mainly on aerial
photographs and maps but now relying more on satellites. This compilation tracks more than
100,000 glaciers covering a total area of approximately 240,000 km2, and preliminary estimates
indicate that the remaining ice cover is around 445,000 km2. The World Glacier Monitoring
Service collects data annually on glacier retreat and glacier mass balance. From this data,
glaciers worldwide have been found to be shrinking significantly, with strong glacier retreats in
the 1940s, stable or growing conditions during the 1920s and 1970s, and again retreating from
the mid-1980s to present.[58]

The most significant climate processes since the middle to late Pliocene (approximately 3 million
years ago) are the glacial and interglacial cycles. The present interglacial period (the Holocene)
has lasted about 11,700 years.[59] Shaped by orbital variations, responses such as the rise and fall
of continental ice sheets and significant sea-level changes helped create the climate. Other
changes, including Heinrich events, DansgaardOeschger events and the Younger Dryas,
however, illustrate how glacial variations may also influence climate without the orbital forcing.
Glaciers leave behind moraines that contain a wealth of materialincluding organic matter,
quartz, and potassium that may be datedrecording the periods in which a glacier advanced and
retreated. Similarly, by tephrochronological techniques, the lack of glacier cover can be
identified by the presence of