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    Judul Lap

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    This document discusses forecasting methods for spare parts demand in manufacturing. It outlines several key characteristics of spare parts demand including intermittency and variability. It then provides an overview of various forecasting techniques that have been used for spare parts demand, including exponential smoothing, Croston's method, and neural networks. Finally, it notes that forecasting spare parts demand is more difficult than manufacturing parts due to the intermittent and unpredictable nature of spare parts demand over the lifetime of a product.

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    Judul Lap

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    Anis Siti Nurrohkayati
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    This document discusses forecasting methods for spare parts demand in manufacturing. It outlines several key characteristics of spare parts demand including intermittency and variability. It then provides an overview of various forecasting techniques that have been used for spare parts demand, including exponential smoothing, Croston's method, and neural networks. Finally, it notes that forecasting spare parts demand is more difficult than manufacturing parts due to the intermittent and unpredictable nature of spare parts demand over the lifetime of a product.

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    This document discusses forecasting methods for spare parts demand in manufacturing. It outlines several key characteristics of spare parts demand including intermittency and variability. It then provides an overview of various forecasting techniques that have been used for spare parts demand, including exponential smoothing, Croston's method, and neural networks. Finally, it notes that forecasting spare parts demand is more difficult than manufacturing parts due to the intermittent and unpredictable nature of spare parts demand over the lifetime of a product.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    50 views6 pages

    Judul Lap

    Uploaded by

    Anis Siti Nurrohkayati
    This document discusses forecasting methods for spare parts demand in manufacturing. It outlines several key characteristics of spare parts demand including intermittency and variability. It then provides an overview of various forecasting techniques that have been used for spare parts demand, including exponential smoothing, Croston's method, and neural networks. Finally, it notes that forecasting spare parts demand is more difficult than manufacturing parts due to the intermittent and unpredictable nature of spare parts demand over the lifetime of a product.

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    Judul lap: analisa karakteristik dan peramalan permintaan spare parts pada PT.

    Petrokimia Gresik

    !forecasting method for spare part demand

    Spare parts have particular features which make extremely delicate and
    sophisticate their management. Dalam industry manufaktur persediaan spare parts
    di gudang sangat diperhatikan. Manajemen memantau inventory spare part agar
    tidak sampai kosong. Hal ini, dikarenakan jika spare part yang dibutuhkan tidak
    tersedia di gudang, maka akan mempengaruhi proses produksi. Permintaan spare
    parts yang tidak pasti merupakan masalah yang sering terjadi dalam manajemen
    pengadaan dalam industry manufaktur. Berdasarkan pada (forecast!) karakteristik
    permintaan spare parts dapat dibagi menjadi sebagai berikut:

    1. Slow moving or smooth, this items have a behavior which is similar to that of
    the traditional articles, at low rotation, of a productive system
    2. Strictly intermittent, they are characterized by extremely sporadic demand
    (therefore a lot of period with no demand) with a not accentuated variability
    in the quantity of the single demand,
    3. Erratic, the fundamental characteristics is the great variability of the
    requested quantity, but the demand is approximately constant as distribution
    in the time,
    4. Lumpy, is the most difficult to control category, because it is characterized by
    a lot of intervals with zero-demand and great variability in the quantity.

    In Ghobbar et al. (2003, p.2105) suggest some cut values which allow a more detailed
    characterization of the intermittent standard of spare parts demand. The Figure 1.3 presents
    the four categories of the spare parts demand (patterns) as they are defined by the present
    literature:

    ADI = 1.32

    Slow movingIntermittent
    CV = 0.49
    Erratic Lumpy

    For a valuation of this double characterization of spare parts demand, two parameters
    recognized in international field are utilized:
    - ADI - Average inter-demand interval: average interval between two demand
    of the spare part. It is usually expressed in periods, where the period is the
    referential time interval which the business utilizes for the purchases;
    - CV Coefficient of variation: standard deviation of the demand divided by
    the average demand.

    For ADI, N is the number of periods with non-zero demand, while for CV it is the
    number of all periods.

    The spare parts demand is very particular. In the majority of the cases, it takes place with
    irregular time intervals and concerns reduced and, above all, very variable quantities, as shown
    in Figure 1.2.

    Because future demand plays a very important role in production planning and
    inventory management of spare parts, fairly accurate forecasts are needed. The
    manufacturing sector has been trying to manage the uncertainty of demand of spare
    16
    parts for many years, which has brought about the development of many forecasting
    methods and techniques. Classical statistical methods, such as exponential smoothing
    and regression analysis, have been used by decision makers for several decades in
    forecasting spare parts demand. In addition to uncertainty reduction methods like
    forecasting, uncertainty management methods such as adding redundant spare parts
    have also been devised to cope with demand uncertainty in manufacturing planning
    and control systems (Bartezzaghi et al., 1999, p.501).

    In brief, a lot of forecasting methods have been elaborated


    and studied in the filed of spare parts demand.

    Methods Inputs Description Mathematical Model


    Single - Historical data It adopts a smoothing Exponential smoothing
    exponential - Smoothing constant constant of the real
    smoothing demands
    Crostons method - Historical data Evolution of SES which also Exponential smoothing
    - Interval between looks on intervals of zero
    present and last non- demand
    zero demand
    - Smoothing constant
    Syntetos-Boylon - Historical data Evolution of croston in order Exponential smoothing
    approximation - Interval between to decrease the error of the
    present and last non- expected estimate of demand
    zero demand per time period
    - Smoothing constant
    Moving Average - Historical data Mean of the past n demands Arithmetic mean
    - Number of data to
    considerate
    Weighted moving - Historical data Mean of past n demands with Arithmetic mean
    average - Number of data to decreasing weights
    considerate
    Additive winter - Historical data Evolution of SES with the - Exponential
    - Smoothing constant introduction of additive terms smoothing
    - Trend constant on the components (trend, - Sum of
    - Periodicity constant casual component) components
    - Width of periodicity
    Multiplicative - Historical data Evolution of SES with the - Exponential
    winter smoothing introduction of additive terms smoothing
    - constant on the components (trend, - Product of
    - Trend constant casual component) components
    - Periodicity constant
    - Width of periodicity
    Bootstrap - Historical data Modern approach to - Probabilistic
    method - Number of re-sampling statistical inference, failing model (re-
    - Width of a sample within a broader class of sampling)
    resampling methods
    Poisson method - Historical data Application of the binomial Probabilistic model
    - Interval time T formula to forecast (binomial
    - Punctual value of the x distribution)
    demand to forecast
    Neural network - Historical data Based on human intelligence, Not mathematical
    - Number of neurons it learns from a training set model
    - Number of layers the connection between
    - Leaming algorithm inputs and output (the
    - Function of error forecast)

    !forecasting in end of life

    In manufacturing, a spare part is an item that can be used to repair an


    existing product. Often the key element to successful procurement is spare
    part demand forecasting. Obviously, if the spare part demand is
    deterministic, external factors are very restrictive (such as regulations that
    require a certain amount of spare parts in stock).

    spare part management framework

    External factors, such as supplier contracts

    Judgemental demand forecast

    Procurement procedure Unit item costs

    Statistical demand forecast

    Requirements, such as service level

    Compared to manufacturing parts, also forecasting the demand of spare parts is a different task
    and generally a more difficult one. As Patton (2007) states, It is possible to determine how
    many service parts are enough.; but it is more problematic that, contrary to parts used in
    manufacturing, the real demand is most likely to be very much closer to zero than the theoretical
    maximum. In general, the spare item demand is intermittent and random. The demand is not
    homogeneous between spare parts. Some parts are very commonly replaced whereas for some
    there is a respectable probability that they will never be needed. This separates spare parts from
    parts needed in manufacturing, where such probabilities do not exist, but the amount of
    components needed per product is deterministic. Likewise, the life cycle has a large impact in
    forecasting spare parts. For manufacturing material, the demand volume and life cycle are often
    somewhat known in advance, while the ramp-ups and -downs of a product manufacturing line
    are planned beforehand, at least at some level. With spare parts, the life cycle impact is much
    more uncertain, because there seldom exists information about the time dependency of spare part
    demand: it is hard to estimate how the spare part demand will develop in the EOL phase based
    on demand in the normal phase. In Figure 2.5, some important factors making a difference in
    demand are presented.

    Factors affecting the demand of manufacturing part vs spare part


    Factor Manufacturing part Spare part
    Demand type High volumes at steady level Low volume, intermittent
    Life cycle impact Predictable Unpredictable and large
    One or few product Many products in different life
    Source of demand
    manufacturing lines cycles phases
    Source of randomness in Untraceable due to numerous
    Traceable
    demand sources

    Ketersediaan spare parts dalam industry manufaktur merupakan hal yang sangat penting dan
    harus diperhatikan guna menjaga kelangsungan proses produksi. Manajemen pengadaan harus
    menjaga jumlah spare parts pada gudang. Untuk menjaga ketersediaan spare parts di gudang agar
    tidak sampai terjado stock out, maka manajemen harus melakukan perhitungan peramalan
    permintaan spare parts yang mungkin akan dibutuhkan pada periode selanjutnya. Namun, dalam
    melakukan peramalan terdapat kendala yang sering terjadi, yaitu antara lain karena permintaan
    yang bersifat tidak pasti, maka sering jumlah yang diasumsikan tidak sesuai dengan kenyataan.
    Terdapat beberapa jenis pola permintaan, yaitu slow moving, intermittent, dan lumpy.
    Selanjutnya, dengan mengetahui pola permintaan, maka dapt dilakukan perhitungan peramalan
    sesuai dengan pola permintaan tersebut. Sejauh ini, banyak penelitian ynag telah melakukan
    perhitungan peramalan permintaan spare parts dengan menggunakan beberapa metode yang
    berbeda. Beberapa metode yang dapat digunakan untuk melakukan peramalan yaitu antara lain
    metode single exponential smoothing, simulasi monte carlo, dan sebagainya.

    In manufacturing industry, the availability of spare part is one of the important and considerate in
    order to maintain the continuity of the production process. The number of spare parts in the
    warehouse must be maintain by warehouse management. To maintain the availability of spare
    parts in the warehouse, the demand forecasting calculations of spare parts must be conducted.
    However, because the demand is uncertain, the number of spare parts for the next period is
    difficult to calculate. it is often assumed that the number does not match the reality.

    There are several types of demand characteristcs, ie slow-moving , intermittent , and lumpy .
    Furthermore , by knowing the pattern of demand , it can be done in accordance with the
    prediction of the demand pattern . So far , many studies who had already calculating spare parts
    demand forecasting by using several different methods. Several methods can be used for
    forecasting are single exponential smoothing method, monte carlo simulation, etc .

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