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Managing

Uncertainty II
Continuous Distributions

MIT Center for


Transportation & Logistics

ctl.mit.edu

Zippy Bright DCs


Zippy Bright manufactures electric toothbrushes that are sold through large
retail outlets. Currently, they distribute one of their premiere products, the
XP219, from three Distribution Centers (East, Center, and West) to more than
3500 stores. The weekly demand that the East DC faces is shown in the data
table below.
What can we say about the weekly demand for this DC?
Week Unit Sales
1 3595
2 3011
3 2994
4 3576
5 3697
6 2648
7 3747
8 3165
9 3412
10 2750

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Week Unit Sales


11 2346
12 2869
13 3450
14 2031
15 3198
16 2939
17 2034
18 2476
19 2339
20 3200

Week Unit Sales


21 3967
22 2844
23 2546
24 2771
25 4084
26 2755
27 2641
28 2875
29 3855
30 2880

Week Unit Sales


31 2898
32 3713
33 2845
34 2866
35 3549
36 2365
37 2462
38 2480
39 3055
40 2453

Week Unit Sales


41 2196
42 3469
43 3570
44 2071
45 3247
46 4740
47 2316
48 2625
49 3973
50 3491

Summary Statistics for Spreadsheets


Function

Microsoft Excel

Google Sheets

LibreOffice->Calc

Minimum

=MIN(array)

=MINA(array)

=MIN(array)

Median

=MEDIAN(array)

=MEDIAN(array)

=MEDIAN(array)

Mode

=MODE(array)

=MODE(array)

=MODE(array)

Mean ()

=AVERAGE(array)

=AVERAGE(array)

=AVERAGE(array)

Maximum

=MAX(array)

=MAX(array)

=MAX(array)

Percentile

=PERCENTILE.INC(array, k)

=PERCENTILE(array,
percentile)

=PERCENTILE.INC(array,
alpha)

=VAR.P(array)

=VARP(array)

=VAR.P(array)

Sample Variance (2)

=VAR.S(array)

=VAR(array)

=VAR.S(array)

Pop. Std Deviation ()

=STDEV.P(array)

=STDEVP(array)

=STDEV.P(array)

Sample Std Deviation ()

=STDEV(array)

=STDEV(array)

=STDEV.S(array)

Population Variance (2)

A Note on Population versus Sample Variance . . .

In real-life, we usually do not know the true mean of the


population. Instead, we need to estimate it from a sample.
An unbiased estimate of the variance is shown, s2
MIT Center
forthe sample variance and standard deviation
In practice,
use
Transportation & Logistics

(x )

2
pop

i=1

2
sample

(x x )

=
i=1

n 1

Zippy Bright DC-East: Weekly Demand

Minimum
Median
Mean ()
Maximum

2,031
2,889
3,022
4,740

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Transportation & Logistics

Range 2,709
Inner-Quartile Range
920
Variance (2) 356,269
Std Deviation ()
603
Coefficient of Variation
0.20

25th Percentile
50th Percentile (Median)
75th Percentile

2,566
2,889
3,486
4

Continuous Distributions

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Transportation & Logistics

Why not just Discretize the Data?

Which histogram should we use?


60%

40%

50%

60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

30%

40%

20%

30%
20%

10%

10%

0%

0%
3000

3500

4000

4500

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5000

2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000

2500

3500

5000

12%

5000

4900

4800

4700

4600

4500

4400

4300

4200

4100

4000

3900

3800

3700

3600

3500

3400

3300

3200

3100

3000

2900

2800

2700

2600

2500

2400

2300

2200

2100

2000

1900

1800

1700

1600

1
0

1500

Weekly Demand at Eastern DC

Weekly demand at Eastern DC


in 100 unit bins for the last year.

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

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Continuous Probability Distributions


Differences from Discrete Random Variables
n
n
n

Probability of specific value outcomes make no sense


Probability of values within an interval is more helpful
Cannot list all possible outcomes instead we need to use a function

Probability Density Function (pdf)


n

probability

Probability that X lies between values a and b is equal to area under


the curve between a and b
Total area under the curve equals 1, but the P[X=t] = 0!

a
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Transportation & Logistics

b
a

f (t)dt

t
8

Continuous vs. Discrete Distributions


Discrete

Continuous

Multiply each value by


its probability

Requires integration to
calculate and 2

= E( X ) = pi xi

= t f (t )dt

i=1

2 = pi (xi ) 2

= (t ) 2 f (t )dt
a

probability

probability

i=1

pmf

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pdf

f(t)

Continuous Probability Distributions


Cumulative Density Function (cdf)
n
n
n

F(t) = P(Xt) or the probability that X does not exceed t


0.0 F(t) 1.0
F(b) F(a) if b>a it is increasing

Simple Rules
n
n
n

P(Xt) = F(t)
P(X>t) = 1 F(t)
P(cXd) = F(d) F(c)
P(X=t) = 0

F(t)

F(a)
0

probability

cdf

cumulative probability

1.0

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t
pdf

f(t)

t
10

Continuous Distributions

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Source: Wikipedia

11

Uniform Distribution

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12

Uniform Distribution
We would say,
X is uniformly distributed over
the range a to b, or X~U(a,b)

1
if a t b

f (t | a, b) = b a
0
otherwise
0 if t < a
!
"
"t a
=
F (t | a, b) %
if a t b
"b a
"&
1 if t > b

1
Mean = a + b
2
1
Median = a + b
2
Mode = any value in range [a,b]
1
2
Variance = b a
12

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13

Zippy Bright Transportation I


Zippy Bright has a consumer delivery unit. They distribute
product from a downtown location to all residences and offices in
the city. The deliveries are made on scooters and each customer
is delivered to directly. They found that the distance to each
customer location is ~U(2.75,6.50) kilometers.
1. What is the average distance, median distance, and CV?
We know that mean = (a+b)/2 = (2.75 + 6.50)/2 = 4.625 km which is also the median!
CV= /= [(1/12)(b-a)2] / (a+b)/2 = [(1/12)(6.5 2.75)2] / 4.625 = 1.0825 / 4.625 = 0.23

2. What is the probability that distance >5 km?


F(t) = P[Xt], since we want to find P[X>t], we need to find 1-F(t) = 1 (t-a)/(b-a)
= 1 (5-2.75) / (6.5 2.75) = 1 0.6 = 0.40 or 40%.

3. What is the probability that distance is +/- 1 of the ?


We know that = 1.0825 and that =4.625. So, we want to find, the probability that X is
between (4.625 1.0825) and (4.625 + 1.0825) or [3.5425, 5.7075].
We can find this using the cdf: F(5.7075) F(3.5425) = 0.789 0.211 = 0.577 = 58%
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14

Normal Distribution

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15

Normal Distribution
We would say,
X is normally distributed with mean
and standard deviation , or X~N(, )
Note: mean=median=mode =

1
f ( x | , ) =
e
1/ 2
(2 )

1 x 2


2

fx(x0)

Area =
P[x<+kx]

Area =
P[x+kx]
=1-P[x<+kx]

+kx

x0

Characteristics

Most commonly used distribution many analyses assume ~ N


High point in bell curve occurs at mean
Symmetric about the mean
The mean shifts the distribution but not the shape
The standard deviation changes the shape but doesnt shift it

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16

The Normal Distribution

+/- 2
+/-

60
0

65
0

70
0

65
0

70
0

55
0

55
0
60
0

50
0

45
0

40
0

35
0

30
0

20
0

+/- 1.65 around = 0.900


+/- 1.96 around = 0.950
+/- 2.81 around = 0.995

0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%

25
0

Common dispersion metrics ~N(,)


P(X w/in 1 around ) = .6826
P(X w/in 2 around ) = .9544
P(X w/in 3 around ) = .9974

Probability of X

Normal Distribution

Value

Normal CDF

So, what is 6?

_10

Error occurs 9.9 x 10

of the time

Probability of X

100%
80%
60%
40%
20%

45
0
50
0

40
0

30
0
35
0

25
0

20
0

0%

Value

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17

Unit or Standard Normal Distribution


Standard Normal Distribution (z scores)
n
n
n
n
n
n
n

Z~N(0,1) where Z=(X-)/


Z score gives the number of standard deviations away from the mean
Allows for use of standard tables
Used extensively in inventory theory for setting safety stock
Area under the curve is 1
Able to assess the probability of an event
A z score can be positive or negative

fu(u0)

( )

f u u0 =

Area =
P[u<z]

Area =
P[uz]=
=1-P[u<z]

0
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x02
2

u0
18

Normal Functions for Spreadsheets


Function
cdf of Normal
Distribution
pdf of Normal
Distribution
Inverse of Normal
cdf
Standard Normal cdf
Inverse Standard
Normal cdf

Microsoft Excel

Google Sheets

LibreOffice->Calc

=NORM.DIST(X, , , 1)

=NORMDIST (X, , , 1)

=NORM.DIST (X, , , 1)

=NORM.DIST(X, , , 0)

=NORMDIST (X, , , 0)

=NORM.DIST (X, , , , 0)

=NORM.INV(Probability, , )

=NORMINV (Probability, , )

=NORM.INV (Probability, , )

=NORM.S.DIST(z,1)
=NORM.S.INV(Probability)

=NORMSDIST (z)
=NORMSINV (Probability)

=NORM.S.DIST (z,1)
=NORM.S.INV (Probability)

Examples for ~N(100, 12):


What is P[X<85]?
=NORM.DIST(85, 100, 12, 1) = 0.105 = 10.5%
What value of X covers 75% of the probability?
= NORM.INV (0.75, 100, 12) = 108.09 = 108
How many standard deviations does it take to cover 99.99%?
= NORM.S.INV(.9999) = 3.719
What probability is covered by 1.65 standard deviations over the mean?
= NORM.S.DIST(1.65,1) = 0.95 = 95%
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19

Zippy Bright Transportation II


Zippy Bright has a consumer delivery unit. They distribute
product from a downtown location to all residences and offices in
the city. The deliveries are made on scooters and each customer
is delivered to directly. They found that the distance to each
customer location is ~N(4.6, 1.10) kilometers.
1. What is the average distance, median distance, and CV?
This is trivial since they are all given! Average = median = 4.6 km. CV=/=1.1/4.6 = 0.24

2. What is the probability that distance >5 km?


We want to find P[X>5] = 1- P[X5] = 1 - NORM.DIST(5, 4.6, 1.1, 1) = 1- 0.643 = 0.36 or 36%

3. What is the probability that distance is +/- 1 around the mean?


By definition, 68.3%. But we could also use the cdf functions.
P[X5.7] P[X3.5] = NORM.DIST(5.7, 4.6, 1.1, 1) NORM.DIST(3.5, 4.6, 1.1, 1)
= 0.841 - 0.158 = 0.683 or 68.3%

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20

Triangle Distribution

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21

Triangle Distribution

2
(b a)

We would say,
X follows a triangle distribution
with a minimum of a, maximum
b, and a mode of c, ~T(a, b, c)
#
0
%
%
2 xa
%
% ba ca
f (x) = $
2 b x
%
%
% ba bc
%
0
&

)(

x<a

)(

axc
c xb
x>b

b x

a+b+c
E x =
3
1 2 2 2

Var x = a + b + c ab ac bc
18
2

P x > d =
for c d b

ba bc

)(

)(

d = b P x > d b a b c

for c d b

Characteristics

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Transportation & Logistics

Good way to get a sense of an unknown distribution


People tend to recall extreme and common values
Handles asymmetric distributions

22

Zippy Bright Transportation III


Zippy Bright has a consumer delivery unit. They distribute
product from a downtown location to all residences and offices in
the city. The deliveries are made on scooters and each customer
is delivered to directly. No one recalls exactly what the distance
to each customer location is, but the consensus is that the
shortest is about 1 km, the longest is about 7 km, and the most
common is probably 4 km.
1. What is the average distance and CV?

1 2 2 2

Var x = a + b + c ab ac bc
18

Average = (a+b+c)/3 = (1 + 7 + 4)/3 = 4 km

Plugging in, 2= 1.50 so = 1.225 and CV = 1.225/4 = 0.31

2. What is the probability that distance >5 km?


We want P[X>5] and since 457, we can plug in and find P[x>5] = 22%
2

P x > d =
ba bc

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)(

for c d b
23

Key Points from Lesson

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24

Key Points from Lesson

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25

Questions, Comments, Suggestions?


Use the Discussion Forum!

Uniformly fun!

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Transportation & Logistics

MIT Center for


Transportation & Logistics

[email protected]

ctl.mit.edu

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