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    Lec 10

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    This document provides an overview of key concepts in probability and statistics. It discusses: 1) Linear regression formulas and how to interpret regression results. 2) Basic probability concepts like experiments, sample spaces, events, and properties of probability such as being between 0 and 1. 3) Examples of computing probabilities, such as finding the probability of at least one head when tossing a coin twice.

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    Lec 10

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    sammyluver5
    39 views15 pages
    This document provides an overview of key concepts in probability and statistics. It discusses: 1) Linear regression formulas and how to interpret regression results. 2) Basic probability concepts like experiments, sample spaces, events, and properties of probability such as being between 0 and 1. 3) Examples of computing probabilities, such as finding the probability of at least one head when tossing a coin twice.

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    lec10

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    This document provides an overview of key concepts in probability and statistics. It discusses: 1) Linear regression formulas and how to interpret regression results. 2) Basic probability concepts like experiments, sample spaces, events, and properties of probability such as being between 0 and 1. 3) Examples of computing probabilities, such as finding the probability of at least one head when tossing a coin twice.

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    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    39 views15 pages

    Lec 10

    Uploaded by

    sammyluver5
    This document provides an overview of key concepts in probability and statistics. It discusses: 1) Linear regression formulas and how to interpret regression results. 2) Basic probability concepts like experiments, sample spaces, events, and properties of probability such as being between 0 and 1. 3) Examples of computing probabilities, such as finding the probability of at least one head when tossing a coin twice.

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    of 15

    STATISTICS 13

    Lecture 10
    Apr 19, 2010
    Review
     Linear regression
     Formula y = a + bx,
    sy
    b=r
    sx
    a = y − bx

     Interpretation of regression result


     Regression effect
    Probability: An Introduction
     Probability is used as a mathematical tool to
    understand or describe random phenomena, chance
    variation & uncertainty
     Example: emission tests on motor vehicles. Four
    repeated measurements on the same car
    HC (gm/mile) 13.8 18.3 32.2 32.5
    CO (gm/mile) 118 149 232 286
     There is substantial variation across these
    measurements. How to make a decision about the
    emission?
     Applications: genetics; quality control; finance, etc
    Basic Concepts:
    Experiments
     Probability is used as a model/tool for situations
    for which outcomes occur randomly
     such situations are called experiments, and the
    set of all possible outcomes is called the sample
    space
     Examples :
    – Toss a coin
    – Draw a poker hand from a card-deck
    – Throw two dice
    Basic Concepts: Simple
    Events
     A simple event is the outcome of a single
    repetition of a random experiment
     Example :
    Experiment : toss a coin once
    Simple events : Head (H), Tail (T)
     One and only one simple event can occur when an
    experiment is performed once
     One can assign a probability to each simple event
    in the sample space
    Basic Concepts: Sample
    Space
     The set of all possible simple events of an
    experiment is called the sample space (usually
    denoted by S) corresponding to that experiment
     Example :
    – Experiment : Toss two coins once
    – Sample space : S = { HH, HT, TH, TT }
    Basic Concepts: Events
     An event (usually denoted by E, F, A, B, etc) is a
    collection of simple events. In another words, a
    subset of the sample space
     Any subset of the sample space (including the
    empty set) is an event
    S
     Example :
    Throw a die 1
    A 3 5
    S = {1,2,3,4,5,6} B
    6
    A : (An odd number)
    = {1,3,5} 2 4
    B : (A number > 2)
    = {3,4,5,6}
    Basic Concepts: Mutually
    Exclusive
     Two events are mutually exclusive if whenever one of
    them occurs the other cannot occur
     Example : Throw a die
    A: observe an odd number
    B: observe a number greater than 2
    C: observe an even number
    D: observe a 3
     Are events A and B mutually exclusive?
     Are events C and D mutually exclusive?
    Probability: Relative
    Frequency View
    How often does “an event” occur ?
    Relative frequency = f/n

    As sample size n becomes “large”

    Relative frequency Probability


    Probability of an Event:
    Properties
     Probability of an event is a number
    between 0 and 1
     Sum of the probabilities of all the simple
    events in S (sample space) equals to 1
     Probability of any event A, denoted by
    P(A), is the sum of the probabilities of all
    the simple events that constitute A
     P(A) = 0 means A never occurs
     P(A) = 1 means A always occurs
    Examples
     Toss a fair coin twice. What is the probability
    of observing at least one head?
     In this case, all simple events are equally likely
    First toss Second toss Ei P(Ei)
    H HH 1/4
    H T HT 1/4
    T H TH 1/4
    T TT 1/4

    Sample Space with Equally
    Likely Simple Events
    If the simple events are equally
    likely, then for event A
    n A number of simple events in A
    P( A) = =
    N total number of simple events
    Need counting rules to find nA and N
    The Multiplicative Rule
     Suppose an experiment is performed in
    two stages, with m possibilities for the
    first stage and n possibilities for the
    second stage
     then there are mn ways to accomplish the
    experiment
     This rule is easily extended to k stages,
    with the number of ways equal to n1 n2 n3
    … nk

    Example : Toss two dice ;


    Total number of simple events =
    Example: Urn problem
     Urn problem: An urn contains three red
    balls and two yellow balls. Two balls are
    randomly chosen without replacement, what
    is the probability that the two balls are
    the same color?
     Answer:
    Example: Urn problem
    (Cont.)
     How about the two balls are chosen with
    replacement?
     Answer:

     What if there are 30 red balls and 20


    yellows balls?

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