Baye&#39 S Rule

Bayes' Rule and Review exercises
2.92 Before the distribution of certain statistical software every fourth compact disk (CD) is tested
for accuracy. The testing process consists of running four independent programs and checking the
results. The failure rate for the 4 testing programs are. respectively, 0.01, 0.03, 0.02, and 0.01.
(a) What is the probability that a CD was tested and failed any test?
(b) Given that a CD was tested, what is the probability that it failed program 2 or 3?
(c) In a sample of 100, how many CDs would you expect to be rejected?
(d) Given a CD was defective, what is the probability that it. was tested?
2.102 Police plan to enforce speed limits by using radar traps at 4 different locations within the city
limits. The radar traps at each of the locations L1,L2 ,L3 and L4 are operated 40%, 30%, 20%, and
30% of the time, and if a person who is speeding on his way to work has probabilities of 0.2, 0.1,
0.5, and 0.2, respectively, of passing through these locations, what is the probability that he will
receive a speeding ticket?
Let S1, S2, S3, and S4 represent the events that a person is speeding as he passes through
the respective locations and let R represent the event that the radar traps is operating
resulting in a speeding ticket. Then the probability that he receives a speeding ticket:
2.104 If in Exercise 2.102 the person received a speeding ticket on his way to work, what is the
probability that he passed through the radar trap located at L2?
2.107 Pollution of the rivers in the United States has been a problem for many years. Consider the
following events:
A= (The river is polluted.}
B {A sample of water tested detects pollution.}
C= {Fishing permitted.}
Assume P(A) = 0.3. P(B|A) = 0.75, P(B|A') = 0.20,
P(C|AB) = 0.20, P(C|A'B) = 0.15, P(C|AB') = 0.80, and P(C|A' B') = 0.90.
(a) Find P(ABC).
P(A B C) = P(C | A B)P(B | A)P(A) = (0.20)(0.75)(0.3) = 0.045.

(b) Find P(B'C).
P(B C) = P(A B C) + P(A B C) = P(C | A B)P(B | A)P(A) + P(C | AB)P(B |
A)P(A) = (0.80)(10.75)(0.3)+(0.90)(10.20)(10.3) =
0.564.
(c) Find P(C).
Use similar argument as in (a) and (b), P(C) = P(AB C)+P(AB C)+P(A B C) + P(A
B C) = 0.045 + 0.060 + 0.021 + 0.504 = 0.630.
(d) Find the probability that the river is polluted, given that fishing is permitted and the sample
tested did not detect pollution.
P(A | B C) = P(A B C)/P(B C) = (0.06)(0.564) = 0.1064.
2.108 A paint-store chain produces and sells latex and semigloss paint. Based on long-range sales,
the probability that a customer will purchase latex paint is 0.75. Of those that purchase latex paint,
60% also purchase rollers. But only 30% of semi gloss paint buyers purchase rollers. A randomly
selected buyer purchases a roller and a can of paint. What is the probability that the paint is latex?
2.116 From a group of 4 men and 5 women, how many committees of size 3 are possible
(a) with no restrictions?
(b) with 1 man and 2 women?
(c) with 2 men and I woman if a certain man must be on the committee?
2.120 From a box containing 6 black balls and 4 green balls, 3 balls are drawn in succession, each
ball being replaced in the box before the next draw is made. What is the probability that
(a) all 3 are the same color?
(b) each color is represented?
Consider the events:
Bi: a black ball is drawn on the ith draw,
Gi: a green ball is drawn on the ith draw.
(a) P(B1 B2 B3)+P(G1 G2 G3) = (6/10)(6/10)(6/10)+(4/10)(4/10)(4/10) = 7/25.
(b) The probability that each color is represented is 1 7/25 = 18/25.
2.123 A certain federal agency employs three consulting firms (A, B, and C) with probabilities 0.40,
0.35, and 0.25, respectively. From past experience it is known that the probability of cost overruns
for the firms are 0.05, 0.03, and 0.15, respectively. Suppose a cost overrun is experienced by the
agency.
(a) What, is the probability that the consulting firm involved is company C?
(b) What is the probability that it is company A?
2.126 A certain form of cancer is known to be found in women over 60 with probability 0.07. A
blood test exists for the detection of the disease but the test is not infallible. In fact, it is known that
10% of the time the test gives a false negative (i.e., the test incorrectly gives a negative result) and
5% of the time the test, gives a false positive (i.e., incorrectly gives a positive result). If a woman
over 60 is known to have taken the test and received a favorable (i.e., a negative result), what is the
probability that she has the disease?
2.132 A firm is accustomed to training operators who do certain tasks on a production line. Those
operators who attend the training course are known to be able to meet their production quotas 90%
of the time. New operators who do not take the training course only meet their quotas 65%. of the
time. Fifty percent of new operators attend the course. Given that a new operator meets his
production quota, what is the probability that he (or she) attended the program?
2.133 A survey of those using a particular statistical software system indicated that 10% were
dissatisfied. Half of those dissatisfied purchased the system from vender A. It is also known that
20%> of those surveyed purchased from vendor A. Given that the software package was purchased
from vendor ,4, what is the probability that that particular user is dissatisfied?

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Bayes' Rule and Review exercises

P(A B C) = P(C | A B)P(B | A)P(A) = (0.20)(0.75)(0.3) = 0.045.

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