Daily Markets Update
Daily Markets Update
Daily Markets Update
1 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
Fundamental Outlook:
2 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
EURUSD
3 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The Technical out look for the EUR/USD Thursday, May the 27th, 2010, level 1.2315
USD/CHF:
4 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The technical outlook for USD/CHF Friday, May the 28th, 2010, level 1.1546
5 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
6 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
EUR/CHF:
7 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The technical outlook for EUR/CHF Friday, May the 28th, 2010, level 1.4252
Position Strategy:Current position : SHORT from 1.4130 with stop 1.4292 target 1.4010
Enter LONG if we break 1.4292 with a stop 1.4138 target near 1.4587
A temporary low is in place at 1.4109 and bias in turned neutral. Another fall cannot be ruled out as long as 1.4292 minor resistance holds. But
after all, considering threat of more intervention from SNB, we'd anticipate strong support above 1.4 psychological level to contain downside.
On the upside, above 1.4292 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 1.4587 first towards the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement from 1.4002 to
1.4846 at 1.4642 next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place above 1.4 psychological level and
the cross has now entered into another consolidation phase. However, note that the current rebound is not strong enough to warranted a
reversal of the long term down trend yet. We'd expect strong resistance at 1.4846 to limit upside. The cross should revisit 1.4 level again some
time in medium term.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. We'd expect such down trend to
extend towards 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984 in the longer run. Break of 1.5138 is needed to confirm reversal.
Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
8 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
GBP/USD:
9 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The technical outlook for GBP/USD Friday, May the 28th, 2010, level 1.4544
Position Strategy: Current position: LONG at 1.4532 with a stop 1.4313 target near 1.4723
Enter SHORT on a clear break of 1.4230 with stop 1.4318 target 1.3848
As noted before by the break above 1.4527 a short term bottom is in place at 1.4230, GBP/USD's rebound from there might extend further
towards 38.2% retracement of 1.5521 to 1.4230 at 1.4723 first and in extension towards 1.5053 resistance before staying another fall. On the
downside, though, break of 1.4230 low will confirm down trend resumption and should target 100% projection of 1.6456 to 1.4783 from
1.5521 at 1.3848 next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, our bearish view remains unchanged. Fall from 1.7043 is tentatively treated
as resumption of the whole down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Such fall should target 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043 at
1.2310 after taking out 1.3503 low. On the upside, break of 1.5521 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook
will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (1985 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature
of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed
and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for 61.8% projection (2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043) at 1.2310 next.
10 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
AUD/USD
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28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The technical outlook for AUD/USD Friday, May the 28th, 2010, level 0.8499
Position Strategy: Current position: FLAT: have Taken profit on LONG position from 0.8369 at 0.8454
Enter LONG on a clear break of 0.8568 with a stop 0.8525 target 0.8686
Enter SHORT on a break of 0.8066 with stop 0.8187 target 0.7702
Intraday bias in AUD/USD has flip to the upside as consolidation from 0.8069 is still in progress. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out but
we'd expect upside to be reach the 50.0% retracement of 0.9077 to 0.8069 at 0.8568 but may be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9077 to
0.8069 at 0.8686 and bring fall resumption. On the downside, decisive break of 0.8069 will confirm fall resumption and should target next key
support level at 0.7702.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, while the decline from 0.9380 is steep, it's still treated as a correction to
medium term up trend from 0.6008. Hence, we're expecting strong support from 0.7702 (50% retracement of 0.6008 to 0.9404 at 0.7706), at
least initially, to bring rebound. But after all, break of 0.8715 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 0.9380 is completed. Otherwise,
more downside would remain in favor.
In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above
76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new uptrend which will extend the
long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 cluster support holds and expect an eventual
break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open
up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.
12 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
USD/JPY
13 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The technical outlook for USD/JPY Friday, May the 28th, 2010, level 91.27
Position Strategy: Current position: LONG at 90.97 stop at 89.95 target near 93.50
Enter SHORT on a break of 89.81 with stop 90.67 target 88.13 for 84.81 next
USD/JPY's rebound from 88.97 extends further to as high as 91.39 so far today and the strong break of 90.92 minor resistance indicates that
fall from 93.62 is completed. Intraday bias is back on the upside and further rally should be seen. Though, we're still treating price actions
from 88.25 as consolidation to fall from 94.97 only. Hence, we'd expect upside to be limited below 93.62 resistance and bring another fall. On
the downside, below 89.81 minor support will indicate that recovery from 88.97 is finished and flip intraday bias back to the downside for
88.13/25 support zone.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, considering that USD/JPY failed to sustained above the lower band of the
ascending channel, green line on the chart, now at 90.86 and dropped sharply, we're now slightly favoring the case that down trend from
124.13 is not over. Break of 88.13 support will indicate that rebound from 84.81 has completed with three waves up to 94.97 already. The
corrective structure will affirm the bearish case and pave the way to a new low below 84.81. On the upside, however, 94.97 will revive the case
that 84.81 is already the long term bottom and will target 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone for confirming this bullish case.
In the long term picture, we will stay neutral first even if the downside momentum is clearly diminishing and bullish convergence condition in
weekly oscillators; the long term down trend in USD/JPY might have reversed. Focus now turns to 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone
and decisive break there will also break the lower high lower low pattern since 124.13. This will suggest that a long term bottom is in place
and another rising leg of the sideway pattern that started at 79.75 in 1995 should then be in progress for upper side of the range at 147.68.
14 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
EUR/JPY
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28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The technical outlook for EUR/JPY Friday, May the 28th, 2010, level 112.64
16 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
GBP/JPY
17 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The technical outlook for GBP/JPY Friday, May the 28th, 2010, level 132.74
Position Strategy: Current position : LONG at 132.83 with stop 131.30 target near 134
Enter SHORT on a break of 126.73 with stop 129.74 target 120 first for 118.18next
GBP/JPY's rebound from 126.73 extends further to as high as 133.18 so far today. A short term bottom is in place at 126.73 with bullish
convergence conditions in Stochastic and RSI. Stronger recovery might be seen to 38.2% retracement of 145.94 to 126.73 at 134.06 and break
will target 61.8% retracement at 138.60. On the downside, though, below 129.03 minor support will argue that such recovery has completed
and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 126.73 low first.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, in the bigger picture, no change to our bearish view rebound from 118.81, which is treated as
correction in the larger down trend from 2007 high of 251.09, has completed at 163.05 already. Fall from 163.05 is tentatively treated as
resumption of such long term down trend and should target 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06 next, which is close to
100 psychological level. On the upside, break of 145.94 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated
as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of
the correction from 118.81.
18 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
USD/CAD
19 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The technical outlook for USD/CAD Friday, May the 28th, 2010, level 1.0522
Position Strategy: Current position : SHORT at 1.0530 with stop 1.0682 target 1.0109
Enter LONG on a clear break of 1.0718 with stop 1.0534 target 1.0850
The daily bias in USD/CAD has turn bearish as the fall from 1.0851 is still in progress. As noted before, the break below 1.0534 support
indicates that a short term top is in place and deeper decline would be seen towards 1.0109 support. Above 1.0718 minor resistance will flip
intraday bias back to the upside. Break of 1.0851 will bring rise resumption to 100% projection of 0.9929 to 1.0734 from 1.0109 at 1.0914
first. Break will target 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, with 1.0779 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of medium term
reversal yet, It’s why I will try a short at 1.0700. Whole down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 might still continue and below 0.9929 low will
target 2008 low of 0.9056. However, note that break of 1.0779 will confirm that fall from 1.3063 has completed and stronger rebound should
be seen towards 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 and above.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly,
the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are
developing into a long term sideway pattern. Hence even in case of another fall, we'd expect strong support above 2007 low of 0.9056 to
contain down side. On the other hand, another strong medium term rise should be seen after fall from 1.3063 complete and such rise should
target a test on the upper side of the long term range near to 1.3063.
20 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
GOLD
21 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The technical outlook for GOLD: Friday, May the 28th, 2010, level 1212.9
Position Strategy: Current position : LONG from 1206.9 with a stop at 1195 target 1249
Enter SHORT on a clear break of 1169.55 with stop 1193 target 1124.3 first for 1044.5 next
As noted before Gold’s pull back from 1249.35 has possibly completed at 1166.20 already, after drawing support from 1169.55 cluster support
(61.8% retracement of 1124.3 to 1249.35 at 1171.6). At this point the daily bias remains mildly to the upside for retesting 1249.7 first. Break
will confirm up trend resumption for 1300 psychological level next. However, note that firm break of 1169.55 will argue that whole rise from
1044.5 is completed and will turn outlook bearish for 1124.3 support instead.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, while the fall from 1249.35 is deep, gold is still holding on to 1169.5 cluster
support as well as long term trend indicator, light green line on the chat, now at 1165.35. However, note that sustained trading below the long
trend indicator will opens up a bearish possibilities. The bearish case is that fall from 1249.7 is the third leg of the three wave consolidation
from 1227.5 , in an irregular flat pattern, and would target a retest on 1044.5 support next, a factor that is favoring this view now is that the
short term trend indicator, light blue line on the chart is crossing below the medium term trend indicator, red line on the chart. On the upside,
a break above 1206.8 minor resistance will reactivated our bullish and a break above 1249.35 will be the confirmation and will target 100%
projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1340 next
In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation
from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level.
We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 1044.5 key support holds.
22 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
23 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The technical outlook for OIL Friday, May the 28th, 2010, level 74.5
Current position : FLAT, Have taken profit on LONG position from 71.30 at 74.50,
Enter SHORT on a clear break of 67.15 with stop 71.25 target 60.5
Enter LONG on a clear break of 74.71 with stop 72.74 target 79
Crude oil’s recovery from 67.15 extended further yesterday and the daily bias is still on the upside for stronger rise, toward 61.8%
retracement at 79.37 and bring fall resumption. But we need first to clear break the 38.2% retracement of 87.12 to 67.15 at 74.71 to confirm
the upside. Break of 67.15 should target first the 64.24 low and 60 psychological level next, which is close to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15
at 60.18.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the break of 70.83/71.09 support zone affirms our view that whole medium
term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.12 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be
seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.12 at 60.16 at least. Also, we count the rebound from 33.2 as the second leg of the whole correction that
started at 2008 at 147.27. On the upside, break of resistance at 81.26 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.12 is completed.
Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.
In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 Fibonacci resistance
zone as expected. Our view is that fall from 87.12 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd
anticipate an eventual break of 60.16 target and may bring 58.98 first for 54.25 next and a final target between 51.23 and 49.73.
24 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
25 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The technical outlook for DJI: Friday, May the 28th, 2010, level 10207.1
26 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
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28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
ECONOMIC CALANDAR
06:00 EUR German Import Price Index M/M Apr 1.5% 1.7%
06:00 EUR German Import Price Index Y/Y Apr 7.4% 5.0%
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28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
29 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
28 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
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