Predictive Safety Near Miss Hazard Reporting
Predictive Safety Near Miss Hazard Reporting
Predictive Safety Near Miss Hazard Reporting
Hazard Reporting
Written by Bernard Borg, CSP
Copyright 2002 all right reserved
For permission to reprint this paper and use of materials contact [email protected]
Major Injury
Minor Injury
Equipment Damage
Near Miss
10
30
600
One of the difficulties of using Birds accident ratio triangle, that there is a grey line between
major injury and minor injury. Also 600 is such a large number for Near Miss incidents that most
people doubt it is possible in the first place.
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Simplified
Ratio
Near Miss
30
Analysis of the accident experience of the typical organisation shows that for every injury there
are two or three equipment related accidents and a couple of near miss incidents. Instead of an
accident triangle, it is more like a diamond.
The Accident Diamond
The ratio of injury to Near Miss for the majority of organizations is more like a diamond than a
triangle.
Injury
1
1
Equipment
Damage
2
2
Near Miss
Typical Ratio
3
60
Expected Ratio
If every Near Miss, Injury and Equipment related incident report identifies 3 action items to
eliminate causes, with the typical ratio of 2:1, only 5 causes of accidents are eliminated. With a
60:1 ratio, almost 200 causes of accidents are eliminated for each injury. The causes of Near
Miss incidents are the same as for injury incidents.
Why wait for an injury before taking action to eliminate causes?
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About Accidents
An accident is defined as an unexpected, unplanned event, which could or does result in a loss.
The following table further illustrates what kinds of events, which could be defined as accidents.
The expected accident ratio is illustrated on the right of the chart.
Loss Occurrence
Incident Types
Expected
Ratio
Catastrophe
Fatality
Lost Time
One
Harm to People
Medical Aid
First Aid
Occupational Illness
All possible
incidents
Equipment Damage
Vehicle Damage
Harm to Things
Three
Abnormal Wear & Tear
Environmental Damage
Production Downtime
No Measurable
Loss
Sixty
Nothing Occurs
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Inadequate
Basic
Causes
Personal
Factors
- System
-Standards
Job
Factors
Prevention
Immediate
Causes
Incident
Substandard
Acts or
Practices
Event
Substandard
Conditions
Protection
Loss
Threshold Limit
Lack of
Control
Unintended
Harm
or
Damage
Containment
If each near miss incident reported is investigated and identifies 2 immediate causes, 2 basic
causes and 1 system related cause, at least 5 action items result.
If 60 near miss incidents are reported for every injury, over 300 causes of incident are identified.
These causes are common with the causes of injury. By eliminating causes before the injury,
injury type accident will be prevented.
Window of Opportunity
Successful business today requires a total commitment by managers, supervisors and workers.
Safety can be dealt with individually where everything related to safety is mutually exclusive of
the rest of the business or safety can be dealt with as interrelated, mutually supported and
dependent entities. Only when managers and supervisors actively demonstrate that they actively
care for people and are supportive can we expect commitment from the workforce.
Workers are out in the process, on the assembly line and on the roads. They are in direct control
of the equipment and are at the point of control. What workers do and dont do have a very large
impact on the efficiency of the business.
Most managers and supervisors are committed to the business. That is how they got to be
supervisors in the first place.
The findings of the American non-managerial work force by the Public Agenda Foundation
discovered that:
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50% of workers said that they put into their jobs only what is required to keep it.
A majority of 75% said that they could be significantly more effective than they are at the
present time.
Approximately 6 out of 10 said they are not working as hard as they once did.
A more recent survey conducted by the Boston Universitys marketing department found that:
How then do we gain the commitment and involvement of workers? How do we gain the trust of
the work force and create a positive atmosphere where people do more than just keep their jobs?
What effect do supervisors and managers have on the performance of the work force?
One of the major ways on accomplishing the goal of employee involvement and commitment is
to react positively to accidents and near miss incidents. We know that if workers dont trust the
organization, they will only report the obvious. This includes equipment damage, trauma type
injuries and incidents where outside factors play a role.
In all organizations, managers know somewhere between everything that happens to very little of
what happens. On a continuum then, the average manager would be somewhere between these
two extremes.
Typical knowledge
Little knowledge
Vast Knowledge
It is intuitively obvious that the more knowledge a manager or supervisor has, the more
effectively the causes of accidents can be eliminated.
The question then becomes one of where the information and knowledge comes from. Many
supervisors assume that they know more than the workers do. In many cases that is true. But
what if workers know different things than the managers and supervisors know and are not
sharing this information? Because workers have different information, the goal should be to add
this information to the information the manager already has. The information the manager has
added together with the information the workers have is greater that the information of the
manger alone.
Once supervisors and managers have the full picture of their organization, they will be able to set
priorities and allocate resources, which reduce the cost and consequence of loss.
Workers then can be plotted on another continuum in terms of how readily they share
information with managers.
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Workers
Share Little
If these two continuums are plotted on an x and y axis, then a Window of Opportunity
model is created.
Window of Opportunity Model
Maintaining the status quo.
Managers Knowledge
High
Low
Arena
Reported
Accidents
Workers
Blind Spot
Opportunity
Managers
Blind Spot
Opportunity
Unknown
Incidents not
recognized as
such and not
reported
High
The Window of Opportunity model has 4 quadrents. The arena is where all organisations
operate within. It is the area where managers have knowledge of accidents because it is also the
area of reported accidents.
Both the mangers blind spot and the workers blind spot are areas of opportunity. If we could
make both of these areas smaller, we would be able to increase the size of the arena. This means
that more causes of accidents would be understood and identified allowing preventative actions
to take place.
Let us consider a couple of scenarios. First of all, what if managers treated Near Miss reporting
as negative. Negative can mean a number of things.
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If managers or the system blame workers for Near Miss incident, then workers will avoid blame
by not reporting incidents except those where a loss has not occurred. The net effect will be that
the arena shrinks in size. Managers will know less about what is going on in the workplace and
workers will lose their trust in managers and the system. The result will be that few of the causes,
which can lead to loss, will be identified. If the causes can not be identified, then incidents can
not be prevented.
Window of Opportunity
Treating Near Miss Reporting as Negative
Managers knowledge decreases
High
Managers Blind Spot
Arena
Workers avoid blame by minimum reporting
Low
Opportunity
Unknown
Worker
Blind Spot
High
When managers are successful at creating a positive safety culture which does not blame workers
for Near Miss incidents, then workers will begin to report more and more incidents. This will
have the effect of increasing the size of the arena. Since many more incidents are now being
openly discussed, many more of the causes can be eliminated. Once these causes are eliminated
loss type incidents such as injury and equipment damage will also be prevented.
The effect of treating near miss reporting as positive is shown in the following model.
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Window of Opportunity
Treating Near Miss Reporting as Positive
Managers Knowledge Increases
Low
High
Arena
When a manager treats Near
Miss Reporting as positive,
workers will actively search
and report incidents. Many
more causes are identified
which can then be
eliminated.
Mngr
Blind
Spot
Unknown
High
Recognition
Treating Near Miss reporting as positive requires recognising people for doing something right.
Ken Blanchard, the author of the one-minute manger, expressed very well the principle that
works when giving recognition for Near Miss reporting.
Catch people doing something approximately right.
The Event or Near Miss may not be positive, but the willingness to report is positive.
Recognition often becomes confused with Safety Awards and incentive programs. Safety
Awards and Incentive programs rapidly become a wages and benefits issue. There is usually a
complex formula and awards are based on years of avoidance of injury. Since the probability of
injury at the individual level is so low, most people work along, bad habits and all, make little
contribution and are rewarded for it.
Recognition is something different altogether. Recognition is a soft issue and is not about things.
It is letting a worker know that his efforts are appreciated and that he is doing the right things.
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When I first started the Near Miss Reporting program, I knew that a lot of what I needed to do
was marketing. Each time I received a near miss report, I would write a personal memo on
company letterhead, sign it in blue ink (so that he knows it is an original) thanking the individual
for his contribution. As the program developed and the volume of near miss reporting exceeded
my expectations, the sending out of all these memos started to become a lot of work. One day, I
was visiting one of the field offices and on the safety bulletin board was a copy of the letter I had
sent out to one employee. I started looking around and found these memos posted in control
rooms, offices and lunchrooms. I found one of the people who had posted the memo and I
thanked him for thinking the memo was important enough to post. This employee had more than
20 years in with the company and he said that my memo was the first thank you note he had ever
received from management. Wow! Did this employee feel good about recognition? You be he
did!
Most companies have an appraisal system. Why not tie Near Miss reporting into the formal
system. Most supervisors will jump at the chance to have something more measurable than
attitude. With the numerical goal appraisals are easy. You may wish to try a system similar to
the following or create one of your own.
Be careful on any negative connotations. If there is any hint of punishment related to near miss
reporting, it will stop with blinding speed. It is critical to ensure that everyone knows that you
are measuring effort and contribution. Recognise and reward the people who meet or exceed
exceptions and do nothing for the ones below standard. In fact, dont even mention on the yearly
appraisal that the individual did not meet the performance standard for near miss reporting.
Moving from Reaction to Anticipation.
First, let us consider the meaning of the word "Anticipation". Anticipation is the ability to
foresee, to realize beforehand. To anticipate is to see what needs doing, what is likely to happen
and to do what is necessary. Peter Drucker, in Managing in Turbulent Times, makes an
interesting observation. He writes about skills that a good manager needs and suggests that one
of the most important skills is anticipation. Most successful managers as well as safety
professionals, have strong problem-solving skills, predominantly in the reactive mode. That is,
when an accident or real problem occurs, they solve it. While it is true that all of us periodically
move from problem solving to anticipation, most of our efforts revolve around problem solving
or reaction. This is for good reason. Safety professionals and managers are hired to solve
problems, so it is only natural that we spend our time doing it. What Drucker is suggesting is that
we must improve out skills in the area of anticipation and spend less time reacting.
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Problem
Solving
Reaction
Old Managerial
Skill
Reaction
To solve problems as well as avoid problems we need information. The organization gathers
information through accident reporting, accident investigation, hazard reporting, inspections etc.
The Life Cycle of Near Miss Reporting.
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
The difference
between actual
and expected is
a blind spot.
Page 10 of 17
To close the gap between the expected number of Near Miss incidents and the number being
reported. A formal program is required. To change the culture of an organization is a very
difficult thing to do. A near miss program needs to address and eliminate the hidden barriers
before the program will be successful. This may take a number of years to accomplish and
depends upon the active support by managers.
Once the program starts to be successful, at some point the managers become very
uncomfortable. They thought they had been doing a good job, but apparently they were not.
What we are now doing is uncovering the "Blind Spot". This is a very fragile time for the
program. Managers will find it easier to go back to not knowing. To circumvent this, now is the
time to look at the other indicators of safety such as cost, equipment damage, and injury. A
correlation of positive trends with other indicators will sell the program.
Almost immediately from the commencement of the Near Miss program, it will start to have the
desired effect. The elimination of the common causes of loss producing events the effect will be
to reduce loss. As the Near Miss program matures, we should see a dramatic reduction in the
gap between the reported Near Miss incidents and the actual. In theory, we should be able to
achieve 100% reporting of all Near Miss incidents. The effect will be an increase in Reported
Near Miss and a decrease in the actual frequency of the incidents. At some point, these two
forces will balance out in the middle.
Western Canada Near Miss Reporting Case History
To illustrate the actual effect that a Near Miss Reporting program can have on an organization,
consider the following case histories. The first case history is the safety performance of a major
petroleum company in Canada. The near miss reporting & injury performance is the complete
decade of the 80's.
The following chart shows the ratio of injury to reported Near Miss incidents for the 3 years
immediately preceding the formal program.
Injury
1
6
3.5
1984
Equipment
Near Miss
Injury
1
4
4
Equipment
Near Miss
1985
1
4.5
6.5
1986
The ratios in each of these 3 years are typical for most organizations. What we see is a diamond
rather than a triangle.
In 1986, a formal Near Miss reporting program began based upon the conceptual models we
have already discussed. The effect of this program was a dramatic increase in the numbers of
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Near Miss reports being made and a corresponding 80% decrease in the actual number of injuries
being experienced. A similar correlation was made with the cost of equipment related incidents.
Since the data was readily available, we plotted the trend back to 1980. This trend showed that
in 1981 there had been a separate shift in injury numbers corresponding to an 80% drop. The
fundamental change in Safety Management in 1980 had been the implementation of the
International Safety Rating System.
The following chart shows the ratios of injury to Near Miss in the 3 years following the
implementation of the Near Miss reporting program.
Injury
Equipment
6.5
Equipment
3.6
Near Miss
22.5
Injury
Near Miss
45.6
1987
1
1.6
26.5
1988
1989
While these ratios did not achieve the expected ratios of 60:1, they are a significant change from
the 3 years prior to the program.
The following graph shows the numbers of Near Miss incidents reported each year for the 80s
and compares the number of injuries to the number of Near Miss incidents reported.
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Injury
Near Miss
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Number of Injuries
90
In 1981, this organization experienced a total of 35 injuries including one fatality. The
implementation of a Total Loss Management program in 1980 accounts for a decrease in the
injury rate to a total of 8 injuries in 1982. In 1986, the Near Miss Reporting program was
implemented. The result was drop in injury rate to zero by 1990. In the same period of time the
total number of Near Miss incidents reported was more than 350.
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What this graph and the change in management style represent is the Juran Trilogy. The Juran
Trilogy, simply shows that an organization has an original zone of quality control and when
you implement a quality improvement program, that you can achieve a new zone of quality
control. Injury was reduced (quality improved) in 1981 by implementing the International Safety
Rating System In 1986, injury was reduced by the implementation of a "Formal Near Miss
Reporting Program" and a new zone of quality control was achieved.
Malaysia Case History
The second case history occurred in a major oil company in Malaysia. The following chart
shows the ratio of Injury to Near Miss for the 3 years immediately prior to the implementation of
the formal program.
Malaysia Prior to the Near Miss Program
Injury
Equipment
Near Miss
Injury
1
1.6
1.5
1992
Equipment
Near Miss
Injury
1
3
1.3
Equipment
Near Miss
1993
1
1.6
2.9
1994
The ratio of injury experienced to Near Miss incident reported did not approach the expected
ratio of 60:1. Again, the charts show a diamond rather than a triangle.
In 1993, there was a small increase in the number of incidents reported. Since the numbers were
still well below the expected, a formal Near Miss Reporting program was introduced in April
1994. By September of 1994, this zone of quality improvement ended and we entered a new zone
of quality control. In mid 1995, the ISRS program was adapted and leadership training started. In
January of 1996, an e-mail form for Near Miss and all other accidents was introduced. During
this time period, the thought process of management changed from the "Safety Department is
Responsible" to "Management are Responsible. In January of 1996, the management team made
a concerted effort to personally encourage "Near Miss Reporting. The results were instant and
dramatic. The reporting frequency as a 1-year running average jumped from a frequency of about
15/1,000,000 hours to almost 50 by the end of May. The Safety Department has started to use
Quality measurement terminology and have predicted a zone of quality control for 1996. The
reaction of the managers was that we were too conservative and that they would even encourage
more Near Miss Reporting prove it.
To help us prove that the ISRS program and Near Miss reporting are beneficial, we started to
look at other indicators in a different way. In early 1994, we started to track the direct cost of
equipment related incidents. Much to the dismay of the manager who truly believed they were
doing a good job, a total accumulated cost of $4,500,000.00 was accumulated over the 2 years.
In the word of Thomas J. Peters and Robert W. Watterman, Jr. In Search of Excellence, "What
gets measured gets done. Putting a measure on something is tantamount to getting it done. It
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focuses management attention on that area. Information is simply made available and people
respond to it."
In 1995, a formal Near Miss Reporting program was started. The following chart shows the
ratios that were achieved as a result.
Malaysia Results of the Near Miss Program
Injury
Equipment
Near Miss
Injury
Equipment
11
Near Miss
10
1995
Injury
1
3
36
Equipment
1
12
Near Miss
60
1996
1997
By mid 1997, this organization achieved a 60 to 1 ratio of Near Miss reporting to injury.
One of the other benefits achieved was the reduction of the cost of equipment related incidents.
After all, if the causes of incidents are common but with different results, then equipment related
accidents reduce at the same time injury accidents reduce.
The following chart shows the effect of Near Miss reporting on cost.
Cost Frequency
600
200
500
400
Cost K$
150
300
Near Miss
100
200
50
100
0
700
0
1996
1997
1998
Both series on this graph are 12 month running averages. That means that every point on the
graph is the average of the previous 12 months.
The average cost / month in 1996 was $675,000.00. By mid 1997, the average cost / month was
$80,000.00. In 1996 this added up to over $3,500,000.00.
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The positive effect on safety that both of these case histories illustrate is just how much
opportunity there is to an organization when you are successful in the elimination of the causes
of accidents. In both cases, management did not believe they had a large blind spot. As soon as
the blind spot was uncovered, they became very uncomfortable. After all, in both organizations,
using the standard safety indicators of the time, they appeared to be doing a good job. The other
area that was improved was the work group's skill in looking for and recognizing the causes of
accidental loss. With the e-mail system of accident reporting every location receives a copy of
the incident report the day it is written. These reports are discussed at morning meetings with
every work group. These work groups in turn then watch out for the same causes of accidents
and in a small way every day does something to prevent them. It is all these small changes added
together that could revolutionize an organization's safety performance.
Near Miss Reporting helps to identify the common causes of accidental loss. By understanding
these common causes, management as well as workers can anticipate the next probable accident
and take steps to prevent them. When we only measure major incidents and injuries, we limit
our ability to understand all the causal factors in the workplace. Ken Blanchard in The Power of
Ethical Management says "Managing only for profit is like playing tennis with your eye on the
scoreboard and not on the ball". In Safety we can say "Managing safety only by LTA, is like
playing tennis with your eye on the scoreboard and not on the ball.
The implementation of a program to increase the reporting of "Near Miss Incidents" is extremely
difficult to do. Without the successful case history, the results in the second case history may not
have been possible. Influencing and changing an organization is a very difficult thing to do.
First, you must be able to believe that it can be done and then you have to work continuously for
what may be years before you can measure a result. It is hoped that the models used in this paper
and the case histories will assist in the justification of a "Near Miss Reporting" program. The
trick seems to be finding a single manager or supervisor who will believe in and support your
efforts. Work with him/her and get the program started. Give us much positive feedback as
possible and protect them from the people who believe that Near Miss incidents are the fault of
the work group. Start measuring results in different ways. Compare reporting results to other
departments. Don't make a big deal out of the ones who don't report at first. However, do make a
big deal out of the departments that start to report. Once the second department or supervisor
decides to outdo the first one in order to get some of the positive attentions, and then your
program will start to take off. In both case histories, the result far exceeded my initial
expectation. I am totally convinced that we can move from accident reaction to accident
anticipation.
Near Miss Reporting Performance standards
Performance standards must be measurable and achievable. When starting out, it is important
that the organization believes in the standard that is set. All individuals need to work to achieve
the goal.
For example, the companies that are successful at near miss reporting have set goals for near
miss reporting that relate to the individual and to supervisors.
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Page 16 of 17
I can remember one employee that I worked with that was a very intense person and liked to take
things literally. Once Pat had bought into the goal, he started to report Near Miss incidents at the
incredible rate of 8 a month. This was a bit overwhelming for both the safety department and the
supervisor. However, when the Near Miss incidents that he was reporting were analyzed, there
were only a couple that was questionable. The rest were valid events that under slightly different
conditions could have led to equipment damage or injury.
Putting it all together
Near Miss reporting programs need to be led by the management of the company. The following
are some of the steps that need to be taken.
Analyze your current incident statistics. Multiply the number of injuries that have been
experienced to determine how many Near Miss incidents should have been
Multiply the number of near miss reports that you should have had by 5. This is the number
of causes of accidents that were not acted upon.
Train all managers and supervisors in some basic accident investigation. Train a key group of
workers also.
Set targets for reporting and convince management to measure safety success by positive
action rather than avoidance of loss.
Develop a constancy of purpose.
Provide people information on the process.
Make reporting easy to do from the point of view of the people you are asking to do the
reporting.
Take action on issues that arise and be seen to be taking action.
Group a number of Near Miss incidents together and start identifying trends.
Keep treating reporting as positive and dont give up.
References
Bird, Jr, Frank E and Germain, George L, Practical Loss Control Leadership, Loganville
Georgia: International Loss Control Institute, 1992.
Juran, J.M., Juran on Leadership for Quality, an executive handbook, New York: The
Free Press, a division of Macmillan, Inc., 1989.
Blanchard, Ken and Peale, Norman Vincent, The Power of Ethical Management, New
York: Fawcett Crest, 1989.
Peters, Thomas J. and Watterman, Jr, Robert W., In Search of Excellence,
Blanchard, Ken and Zigarmi, Patricia and Zigarmi, Drea, Leadership and The One
Minute Manager, London: Harper Collins, 1994.
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