Vol.

: 290
18th April,2016

Index

MarketView
1 Market View:

The Stage Is Set To Conquer 200 DMA

CompanyUpdate
2
The last 15 days were extremely important for the Indian capital market. As we know that, the Indian

economy still depends largely on agriculture and agriculture growth. Normal to good monsoon really
Aroundthe
boosts the GDP growth in India and spurt the rural demand significantly. The initial prediction for the
Economy

3 ensuing monsoon is above normal by the IMD department and the private forecaster. As per the

statistical survey department, the normal to good monsoon can increase the overall GDP by 0.5% to 1%
KnowledgeCorner 3 and that is really significant. The companies having greater share of rural demand can really go a long

way in achieving their earnings forecast. As we also know that, the earning performance of Indian
MutualFund
4 corporate, really matters for the market to rise from this level. The good monsoon may drive the demand
for two wheelers, FMC goods, agro chemicals, four wheelers, housing finance and so on. The more

CommodityCorner5 important is the sentiment of the market which really gets boosted by the word normal to good
monsoon.

ForexCorner
6 The result season has started with a bang. Infosys has delivered a satisfactory result for the fourth

quarter. On net profit and EBIT front, the result has outperformed the estimates. The vision and
ReportCard
7 guidance for the future performance is also good. The data from USA regarding unemployment claims
are also positive for US and the world market. Considering all these positive data, the net effect in the

ShortTermCallStatus8 market will be to achieve the 200 dma and go beyond the same. Any meaningful decline on the basis of
profit booking will be a good opportunity for investment in the market. Technically, the 200 DMA is

placed at 7875 which will be a moderate resistance for the market. A sustained rise above the same
Editor&Contributor
level may take the market above 8000.
MargiShah

Kamal Jhaveri
SpecialContributors
MD- Jhaveri Securities
AsheshTrivedi
AdityaNahar

Forsuggestions,feedback
andqueries
[email protected]

-1-

Vol.: 290
18th April,2016

Company Update : Mold-Tek Packaging Limited

Company Basics
533080

FV (`)
EPS (`) (TTM)

5.00
7.57

MOLDTKPAC

P/E (x) (TTM)

18.23

P/BV (x) (TTM)

BETA
RONW (%)

3.02
1.0354
20.06

BSE Code
NSE Symbol

Financial Basics

EQUITY (` in Cr.)

13.85

MKT.CAP (` in Cr.)

382.14

Share Holding Pattern

Holder's Name
Foreign
Institutions
Promoters
Non. Promoters
Public & Others
Govt Holding

% Holding
2.68
17.15
33.91
0.00
46.27
0.00

Valuation : MOLDTEKPAC is trading at `145. We recommend Buy with target price of `179.valuing stock
18.23xFY18E EPS of `9.84. The stock currently trades at 20.17x of FY16E, 16.81x of FY17E and 14.01x of FY18E.
Company Overview

Established in 1986, Mold-Tek Packaging Limited (MTPL) is the leader in rigid plastic packaging in India.
Mold-Tek Packaging Limited is involved in the manufacturing of injection molded containers for lubes, paints,
food and other products. The Company designs and manufactures standard airtight and pilfer - proof pails as
well as customized containers to meet customer's packaging requirements.
Investment Rational
Market leader in Pail Packaging
MPL has developed 'Square pail' with IML decoration for the first time in India. Through this innovative product
range, Mold-Tek is entering into `1000crore edible oil packaging segment thereby expanding its arena of
operations beyond its traditional paint and lube industry.
Positive response from leading edible oil players
MPL has received positive response from leading edible oil companies such as ConAgra Foods, Ghodawat Foods,
Allana Group and Adani Wilmar. The 5 & 15 litre edible oil pack sales should pick up from third quarter and the
Companys capacities are being expanded in all its three major plants - Hyderabad, Daman and Satara to cater to
the expected demand from this new segment.
Pioneer in In Mould Labeling (IML)
Most of the clients started shifting to IML decorated pails from traditional silk screen printing. As IML offers
photographic finish and hands free operation, many paint, lube and food companies are gradually shifting to
IML. This enables Mold-Tek to lead from the front, as it is way ahead of the rest of the competition in IML
decoration in India. Majority of the clientele are actively considering IML containers. Going forward, this segment
is likely to contribute significantly to the top and bottom lines of the Company.
- 2-

Vol.:
290
18th April,2016

Around The World

Weekly Market Recap :

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its initial monsoon forecast that the southwest monsoon is likely to
be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) during the four-month period from June to September 2016.
On the macro front, data released by the government on Tuesday, 12 April 2016, showed that inflation based on
consumer price index (CPI) dipped to six-month low of 4.83% in March 2016, with the index easing for second straight
month.
Another data released by the government on Tuesday, 12 April 2016 showed that industrial production rose 2% in
February 2016 over February 2015.
On the global front, data released on Wednesday, 13 April 2016 showed stronger-than-expected growth in China's
exports. China's exports rose 11.5% in March year-over-year in dollar terms. Imports declined 7.6%, compared
with February's 13.8% drop.

Market Eye Week ahead :

Among macro economic data, the inflation based on wholesale price index (WPI) for the month of March 2016
is scheduled to be released by the government on Monday, 18 April 2016. WPI inflation stood at negative 0.91%
in February 2016 as compared to a reading of negative 0.9% (provisional) in January 2016.

Among global data, the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy statement is scheduled to release on
Thursday, 21 April 2016. On the same day, US initial jobless claims for the week ending Friday, 15 April 2016 is
due.

Key Events / Factors to Watch

1. Mon: HOEC , Mindtree, LIC housing finance, TCS earnings, WPI data for the month of March 2016
2. Tue: CRISIL, Gruh Finance, Mastek earnings
3. Wed: Supreme Petrochem, VST Industries, Wipro earnings
4. Thru : Hindustan Zinc, Indusind Bank , Supreme Industries earnings
5. Fri : Cairn India, Mahindra CIE Automotive, HDFC Bank, Sasken Communication earnings
6. Sat : R.S.Software, M & M Financial services earnings

Knowledge Corner :
Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT)

Arbitrage pricing theory (APT) is a well-known method of estimating the price of an asset. The theory assumes an asset's return is
dependent on various macroeconomic, market and security-specific factors.

The APT was a revolutionary model as it helps the user decide whether a security is undervalued or overvalued and so an individual
can profit from the information. APT is also very useful for building portfolios because it allows managers to test whether their portfolios are exposed to certain factors.

- 3-

Vol.: 290
18th April,2016

Mutual Fund Corner

Top 10 Sector Break-Ups

Fund Name

Fund (%)

Sector Weights

Scheme Name

Axis Long Term Equity Fund

AMC

Axis Asset Management Company

Type

Tax Planning

Category

Open-ended and Equity

Launch Date

December 2009

Fund Manager

Jinesh Gopani

Net Assets
(` In crore )

Rs. 6677.0 crore as on Feb 29, 2016

Financial

30.89

Automobile

13.13

Healthcare

11.98

Technology

8.64

Chemicals

7.76

FMCG

5.77

Cons Durable

5.36

Engineering

3.48

Diversified

2.82

Services

2.75

History

2013

2014

2015

2016

NAV (Rs)

17.26

28.69

30.61

29.12

Total Return (%)

16.51

66.18

6.70

-4.89

9.75

34.79

10.76

-2.00

12.13

30.71

8.18

-0.97

1/37

6/73

19/73

34/81

52 Week High (Rs)

17.27

28.69

32.84

52 Week Low (Rs)

13.54

16.65

28.53

Equity

96.7

Net Assets (Rs.Cr)

755.32

2983.00

6479.59

Debt

4.11

Expense Ratio (%)

2.85

2.55

2.51

Cash

-0.8

+/-Nifty 50
+/- S&P BSE 100
Rank (Fund/Category)

Risk Analysis
Volatility Measures
Standard Deviation

14.41

Sharpe Ratio

1.13

Beta

0.92

R-Squared
Alpha

0.83
15.27

Composition (%)

Fund Performance v/s S&P CNX Nifty

Fund Style
Investment Style
Blend

Value

Large
Medium
Small

Fund
CNX Nify
(Rebased to 10,000)
- 4-

Capitalization

Growth

Source : - www.valueresearchonline.com

Vol.: 290
18th April,2016

Commodity Corner
BULLION
FUNDAMENTAL: Bullion prices last week ended with mixed node, where gold prices ended with half percent losses whereas Silver prices ended with 5
percent gains as the U.S. dollar and major stock markets weakened. Silver rose to a 10month high as its value relative to gold surged by the most in 21/2 years this week. Bullion had climbed to a three-week high on Tuesday, only to give up gains as world stocks rose on Thursday to their highest levels
since late December, boosted by robust Chinese economic data and a surge in oil prices earlier in week. Gold prices have steadied after posting their
biggest quarterly rise in nearly 30 years in the first quarter, driven by a reining in of expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will push ahead with
several interest rate increases this year. Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said the Fed seems to be on track for at least two interest
rate increases over the rest of the year. The Chinese government reported on Wednesday that exports surged by 11.5% in March on an annual basis,
defying expectations for slight gains of 2.5%. The upbeat data bolstered investor confidence, one month after Chinese exports plummeted more than
25% in dollar terms. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president Rob Kaplan said he thinks the FOMC could raise short- term interest rates in June if the
economy demonstrates continued improvement, while San Francisco Fed president John Williams said the Fed should approve "two to three rate
hikes," before the end of the year if the current economic outlook remains unchanged. Assets in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell to a onemonth low on Thursday. San Francisco Fed President John Williams said that the bank could hike rates two or three
times this year, while Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said the Fed will likely have to do it four times. The US central bank must remain increasingly cautious when deciding about the future monetary policy path, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said on Thursday that there is still time for two or three rate hikes this year.
RECOMMENDATION : BUY GOLD @ 28800 SL 28500 TGT 29200-29550. BUY SILVER @ 38000 SL 37400 TGT 38800-39200.

BASE METALS
FUNDAMENTAL: Base metals prices ended with gains where zinc prices gained by 6% followed by good gains in nickel and copper prices after Chinese trade data brightened the outlook for demand in the world's biggest metals consumer, prompting some investors to shift back to commodities.
China's exports in March returned to growth for the first time in nine months, adding to further signs of stabilization in the world's second-largest economy that cheered regional investors. Price gains in zinc and other industrial metals had a snowball effect as they pushed through key levels, sparking
more buying by speculators based on technical signals. Zinc has rebounded by about 30 percent since touching a 6-1/2 year low of $1,444.50 in mid
January as investors expect mine closures to lead to shortages. China's exports in March returned to growth for the first time in nine months, adding to
further signs of stabilization in the world's second largest economy that cheered regional investors. Declines in total inventories in the three regions
slowed noticeably. Arriving shipments decreased due to maintenance at some zinc smelters and transportation problem. But zinc smelters mainlining
normal production sold actively due to rising zinc prices. At the same time, outward shipments were down as downstream buying interest weakened. In
its latest Zinc sector forecast report, the Chinese state owned metals consultancy Beijing Antaike has lowered the zinc concentrate demand forecast for
year 2016. The Peoples Bank of Chinas (PBoC) effort to regain confidence in the Chinese economy and prevent a major recession appears to be
working. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports stood at 345,600 tonnes at the end of March, down 5.5 percent from a month earlier. China's
deal could flood a saturated global market with aluminium and steel products as producers scramble to sell excess metal ahead of the changes, prolonging the industry's pain. China's economy grew 6.7 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, meeting expectations and providing additional evidence that a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy may be bottoming out. Import of unwrought copper and products to China rose for the
first time in 2016, growing 36% on a monthly basis to 570,000 metric tons, data from China's custom administration showed. Figures for the first quarter
showed a 30% increase to 1.43 million tons.
RECOMMENDATION : SELL COPPER @ 322 SL 328 TGT 312-305. BUY ZINC @ 121 SL 118 TGT 124.50-127. BUY NICKEL @ 580 SL 565TGT
600-620. BUY ALUMINIUM @ 100 SL 97 TGT 104.50-106. SELL LEAD @ 116 SL 119 TGT 112.50.

ENERGY
FUNDAMENTAL: Crude oil prices ended with gains last week but pared over three percent gains ahead of a weekend meeting that could yield an output freeze by major producers, while the U.S. dollar and stocks across the globe edged lower. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expressed similar
doubts that a deal could help boost persistently low oil prices. Any agreement between OPEC and Non-OPEC to freeze production near current levels
will have "limited impact" on global supply, as markets are unlikely to "rebalance before 2017," the IEA said. If the Doha meeting fails to succeed and
limit production, oil prices will have a problem since they cannot depend on demand as growth slows down significantly. This year's growth in global oil
demand will ease to around 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d), much lower than last year's 1.8 mb/d increase, according to the newly released IEA Oil
Market Report for April. This is mostly caused by a significant deceleration in China, the US and most of Europe. Flash data for Q1 showed that a slowdown is already occurring, as growth on a yearly basis reached 1.2mb/d, after the Q4 2015 1.4 md/d increase and growth of 2.3 mb/d in Q3. On the
other hand, supply dropped by 0.3 mb/d in March to 96.1 mb/d, and year-on-year gains shrunk to 0.2mb/d from the 1.7mb/d reached in the previous
month. The forecast for non-OPEC production remained unchanged from last month's OMR at 57 mb/d,0.7mb/d less than last year's average. Natural
gas prices ended with losses falling by over 4.60% with a record glut for end-of-winter stockpiles still weighing on prices. Inventories are 63% higher
than they were at this time a year ago and 52% higher than the five-year average, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Thursday in its
weekly inventory update. To prevent stockpiles from hitting peak capacity levels at the end of the April-October injection season after utilities left record
amounts of fuel in storage following the warm winter, prices will have to remain low this year to pressure producers to cut output and encourage power
generators to burn more gas instead of coal. U.S. natural gas speculators trimmed their bullish bets just one week after they switched their positions
from net short to net long for the first time since 2014.
RECOMMENDATION : SELL CRUDE OIL @ 2680 SL 2800 TGT 2520-2350. BUY NAT.GAS @ 124 SL 118 TGT 130-138.

- 5-

Vol.: 290
18th April,2016

Commodity Corner

Forex Corner

Market Recap :

The Indian rupee inched higher against the dollar in

opening trades on Monday, 18 April 2016 but dipped
lower soon after due to increased demand for the
dollar from importers.

The domestic currency commenced at Rs 66.62

against the dollar and slipped to a low of 66.71 so
far during the day.

In the spot market, the Indian unit was last seen

trading at 66.66.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index, which measures

the greenback's strength against a trade-weighted
basket of six major currencies, rose 0.01% to 94.69.

Market Eye Week ahead :

Last week USD INR pair remained almost flat as it was truncated short week. The failure of talks between the oil
exporting countries in Doha can result in return of some risk off sentiment, in turn impacting currencies. Last week we had
said that Rupee is oversold in charts and has huge monthly support at 66.00 levels. So We expect the USD-INR currency
pair will continue trading in 66-67.30/dollar range on the back of strong portfolio flows

USD/INR
Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

USD/INR

66.25

66.49

66.62

66.86

66.99

66.76

66.39

66.72

Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

EUR/INR

74.77

75.11

75.74

76.08

76.71

76.36

75.39

75.39

Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

GBP/INR

93.32

94.20

94.88

95.76

96.44

95.56

94.00

95.08

Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

JPY/INR

60.36

60.71

61.27

61.62

62.18

61.84

60.93

61.05

EUR/INR

GBP/INR

JPY/INR

-- 46--

Vol.: 290
18th April,2016

J Street Recommendations Report Card

Nifty finally closed the week at 7850.43 thereby showed a rise of 325 points on week to week basis. Weaker opening and correction
first to 7744-7623 can be used for accumulation with a positional stop loss of 7400. Last week we had said that further rise can be
seen above 7800. 1 week trend Up, 3 week trend - Up and 8 week trend- Up. Overall there is buying momentum and sentiment is
positive so we suggest buying on dips. Supply pressure is at 7930-8000.

Macroeconomic data, trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors
(DIIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the markets in the near term.

Top Fundamental Stocks

Rec. Date

CMP on Rec.

CMP

Target

Absolute
Return @
CMP

Status

Mold-Tek Packaging

04/04/2016

138

145

179

5%

Buy

Jamna Auto

22/02/2016

133

148

181

12%

Buy

MT Educare

1/2/2016

164

179

230

9%

Buy

Garware-Wall Ropes

28/12/2015

425

373

550

-12%

Buy

Welspun syntax

23/11/2015

121

104

223

-14%

Buy

Natco Pharma

2/11/2015

509

445

636

-13%

Buy

SRF

21/09/2015

1140

1385

1374

21%

Buy

Ahluwalia contracts

24/08/2015

235

289

368

23%

Buy

Infinite Computer Sol.

20/07/2015

190

205

255

8%

Buy

Ambika Cotton Mills

18/05/2015

880

855

1149

-3%

Buy

4/5/2015

298

280

430

-6%

Buy

16/03/2015

152

190

251

25%

Buy

DHFL

16/02/2015

252

207

368

-18%

Accumulate

TV Today Network

27/01/2015

222

314

337

41%

Buy

M&M

12/1/2015

1238

1341

1452

8%

Buy

Havells India

27/10/2014

274

343

346

25%

Buy

PTC India Fin. Ser.

7/7/2014

39

40

45

1%

Buy

Adani Port

5/7/2014

280

231

347

-18%

Accumulate

Stocks

Sadbhav Engineering
Ltd.
Omkar speciality
Chemicals

It'snotimportantwhetheryouarerightorwrong,Itsabouthowmuchmoneyyoumakewhenyou'rerightandhow
muchyoulosewhenyou'rewrong.
- 7-

Vol.: 290
18th April,2016

J Street Short Term Call Status

Sr.
No.

DATE

STOCK

BUY/
SELL

RANGE

RANGE

24Feb16

DLF

SELL

84

86

85.00

25Feb16

INDUSIND
BANK

SELL

816

29Feb16

KSCL

SELL

1Mar16

ARVIND

2Mar16

TRIGGER
TGT
PRICE

SL

STATUS

%
RETURN

80.00

89

SL

4.7

832

824.00 800.00

852

TA

3.0

334

345

339.50 322.00

360

SL

5.0

SELL

237

242

239.50 232.00

248

SL

3.7

TATAELAXSI BUY

1785

1825 1805.00 1870.00

1750

TA

3.6

3Mar16

MARUTI

SELL

3650

3580 3615.00 3500.00

3690

TA

3.3

4Mar16

TATASTEEL

SELL

283

290

286.50 276.00

300

SL

4.7

8Mar16

SRTTRANSFIN BUY

905

923

914.00 945.00

885

TA

3.4

9Mar16

BANKBARODA SELL

140

144

142.00 137.00

148

TA

3.6

10

10Mar16

RELCAPITAL BUY

374

382

378.00 390.00

360

SL

4.2

11

11Mar16

SELL

411

418

414.50 404.00

430

SL

4.0

12

14Mar16

HINDUNILVR BUY

845

858

851.50 875.00

825

TA

2.8

13

15Mar16

TATAMOTOR BUY

362

368

365.00 376.00

348

TA

3.0

14

16Mar16

HDFC

SELL

1106

1128 1117.00 1080.00

1150

SL

3.8

15

17Mar16

ICICIBANK

BUY

223

233

228.00 240.00

210

TA

5.3

16

18Mar16

INDUSINDBK SELL

900

920

910.00 880.00

942

SL

3.5

17

21Mar16

VOLTAS

BUY

265

270

267.50 276.00

256

TA

3.2

18

22Mar16

INDIACEM

BUY

83

86

84.50

88.00

80

TA

4.1

19

23Mar16

BHEL

BUY

115

118

116.50 120.00

112

SL

3.8

20

28Mar16

TATASTEEL

BUY

314

320

317.00 328.00

304

TA

3.5

21

29Mar16

AXISBANK

SELL

421

428

424.50 411.00

440

SL

3.0

22

30Mar16

CIPLA

SELL

500

510

505.00 490.00

520

SL

2.9

23

31Mar16

BAJAJFINANCE BUY

6750

6860 6805.00 7120.00

6600

TA

4.6

- 7-

AXISBANK

Vol.: 290
18th April,2016

J Street Short Term Call Status

BUY/
SELL

RANGE

STATUS

CMP

%
RETURN

BUY

2930

2850

TA

5.8

SELL

94

97

95.50

90.00

100

TA

6.1

SELL

182

186

184.00 174.00

191

SL

3.8

UNIONBANK SELL

126

129

127.50 120.00

133

SL

3.4

SELL

1176

1198 1187.00 1132.00

1230

SL

3.6

SELL

2415

2463 2439.00 2375.00

2520

OPEN

0.0

MOTHERSUMI BUY

250

255

252.50 260.00

244

OPEN

0.0

110

113

111.50 115.00

107

OPEN

0.0

Sr.
No.

DATE

24

4Apr16

25

5Apr16

26

6Apr16

27

7Apr16

28

8Apr16

LT

29

11Apr16

TCS

30

12Apr16

31

13Apr16

STOCK
HEROMO
TOCO
ORIENTAL
BANK
SBIN

ASHOKLEY

BUY

STAUTS

CALLS

RATIO

TA+PB

17

54.83

SL+EXIT

14

45.16

TOTAL

31

100

TRIGGER
TGT
PRICE

SL

2990 2960.00 3140.00

One call on daily basis is given keeping view of short term trading on closing basis.
Time frame and expected % of return is also mentioned with the suggested call.
This call are purely given on technical trading system generated by the Technical Research Desk.
Generally Expected Return on investment is 5-6 % with time horizon of 6-7 days.
Profit Booking update is considered if on an average expected return exceed 3.50-4.00 % against the
Expected return of 5-6%
Risk- Reward ratio percentage wise depends on the volatility of stock Normally it stands ( 3 : 9)

- 7-

Vol.: 290
18th April,2016