Market Outlook 7th March 2012

Market Outlook
India Research
March 7, 2012
Dealers Diary
The Indian markets are expected to open in red taking cues from negative opening in most of the Asian markets. Indian markets fell sharply yesterday fell in volatile trading session after it became clear that the Samajwadi Party will form the next government in UP without outside support from the Congress party. A clear mandate to Samajwadi Party in UP means that the incumbent central government will have to prepare for tough times pushing ahead stalled reforms to bolster economic growth. Globally, most of the US and European markets fell sharply on Tuesday as fears about the impact of a disorderly Greek bond default returned to a market that had recently put Europe crisis concerns on the back burner. Institute of International Finance warned in a recent memo that a disorderly default could cause more than EUR1trillion (US$1.3 trillion) in damage to the euro zone. Menawhile, 4QCY2011 GDP growth data of Eurozone came in as expected at 0.7%. The markets now will closely watch out for domestic IIP data for January 2012 due to be released next week. Also, jobless claims of the last week for US due to be released tomorrow will be on radar.
Domestic Indices BSE Sensex Nifty MID CAP SMALL CAP BSE HC BSE PSU BANKEX AUTO METAL OIL & GAS BSE IT Global Indices Dow Jones NASDAQ FTSE Nikkei Hang Seng Straits Times Shanghai Com
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
(1.1) (189.6) 17,173 (1.1) (1.1) (1.3) (0.3) (0.8) (0.5) (58.0) (69.7) (87.5) (20.0) (61.8) (51.0) 5,222 6,201 6,700 6,331 7,502 9,781 8,336 6,083
(Close)
(1.1) (127.1) 11,580 (3.9) (449.8) 11,154 (1.8) (151.7) 0.5

Chg (%)
31.8
(Pts)
(1.6) (203.7) 12,759 (1.4) (0.6) (2.0) (1.4)

Chg (%)
(40.2) (61.0) (59.8) (34.6)

(Pts)
2,910 5,766 9,638 2,932 2,410

(Close)
(1.9) (109.0)
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 17,331 / 5,270 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 17,534 17,895 / 5,334 5,446 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 17,331 / 5,270 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 16,970 16,767 / 5,159 5,095 levels.
Indices SENSEX NIFTY S2 16,767 5,095 S1 16,970 5,159 PIVOT 17,331 5,270 R1 17,534 5,334 R2 17,895 5,446
(2.2) (459.1) 20,806
Indian ADRs Infosys Wipro ICICI Bank HDFC Bank
(2.3) (2.9) (5.1) (3.1)
(1.3) (0.3) (1.8) (1.1)

BSE
$55.8 $10.6 $33.8 $33.0

NSE
News Analysis
Assembly poll results 2012 Ranbaxy launches Atrovastatin in Italy, Sweden and Netherlands NIIT IFBI and Axis Bank launch PG Diploma program in retail banking
Advances / Declines Advances Declines Unchanged
1,010 1,817 119
408 1,042 54
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Net Inflows (March 05, 2012)

` cr FII MFs Purch 1,871 415 Sales 1,675 559 Net 197 (144) MTD 1,075 (484) YTD 37,373 (4,511)
Volumes (` cr) BSE NSE
3,038 15,012
FII Derivatives (March 06, 2012)

` cr
Index Futures Stock Futures
Purch 3,196 2,903
Sales 3,572 2,601
Net (376) 302
Open Interest 13,508 27,624
Gainers / Losers
Gainers Company
Mcleod Russel Titan Industries Engineers India DLF Indian Bank
Losers Company
Unitech GVK Power Reliance Power Pantaloon Retail Chambal Fert
Price (`)
242 230 272 197 239
chg (%)
3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.3
Price (`)
27 16 126 161 78
chg (%)
(8.1) (7.9) (7.1) (7.0) (6.6)
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
Market Outlook | India Research
Assembly poll results 2012

Market is more disappointed with the clear verdict in UP as it makes the assumption of Congress playing kingmaker redundant. Market worries more about the morale of the central government to carry out crucial reforms than individual poll outcomes. Considering the altered political landscape, it seems status quo for the pace and urgency of economic decision making for the moment. Congress was never the front runner in UP and Goa was facing anti incumbency. Electoral setbacks have come in Punjab while Uttarakhand is too close to call on the composition of the new government. However as the political equations alter both in the coalition and in the Rajyasabha in the next 6 months, cold logic might prevail over ideology which might dampen its enthusiasm to carry out some of the reforms. One is likely to see a more circumspect Congress acting in a much calibrated manner on reforms which might be a dampener for the free market liberals. Union Budget 2012-13 will see revenue enhancing measures while keeping some restraint on expenditure (mostly plan) while announcing new grandiose schemes such as Food Security Act to cater to its social constituency. It might look somewhat similar to last years budget but with greater degree of purpose. The government might attempt some fiscal consolidation through asset sales (divestments) and spectrum sale before readying giveaways in 2013-14. Initiatives such as GST and DTC which have bipartisan support will continue to make progress towards legislation by 2013-14. Expect a flurry of activity on divestments and PSU buybacks to raise resources to meet the needs of the social sector schemes. Investor sentiment is contingent upon global liquidity conditions and incremental policy actions. If investors see a credible medium term fiscal consolidation plan along with the implementation of GST and DTC in the backdrop of declining interest rates, they will be enthused to invest in India.
Ranbaxy launches Atrovastatin in Italy, Sweden and Netherlands

Ranbaxy Labs has launched the generic versions of Atorvastatin tablets, 10mg, 20 mg, 40mg and 80mg in Italy and Sweden and 10mg, 20mg and 40mg in the Netherlands, after receiving approval from the respective local Regulatory Authorities. In accordance with its settlement agreement with Pfizer, Ranbaxy has introduced the product ahead of the applicable patent expiries. Pfizers patent expires in Italy on May 8, 2012 and in the Netherlands and Sweden on May 06, 2012. Atorvastatin, a cholesterol reducing drug, is the largest selling pharmaceutical product in Italy with sales of US$ 377mn (IMS MAT December, 2011). The market size for Atorvastatin in the Netherlands is US$164.4mn (IMS MAT December, 2011) and in Sweden is US$55mn (IMS MAT December, 2011) and is the largest selling Statin product in these two markets. Ranbaxy will be promoting the drug directly to all channel partners including retail pharmacies and wholesalers in Italy and the Netherlands. In Sweden the company will be offering its drug through the official pricing and reimbursement scheme covering generic medicines, to all retail pharmacies. These are small markets for Ranbaxy
March 7, 2012
for selling Lipitor, and the main upsides would accrue to the company through sale in US. Moreover the upside from Liptior is fully captured in our estimates. We maintain our neutral stance on the stock.
NIIT IFBI and Axis Bank launch PG Diploma program in retail banking
NIIT Institute of Finance, Banking and Insurance Training Ltd. (IFBI), India's largest banking training institute, and Axis Bank have launched a post graduate diploma program in retail banking (PGDRB), an exclusive career program designed for Axis Bank. PGDRB aims to build a pool of modern banking professionals for Axis Bank. The program covers an overview of the entire industry and key players in each sector. All the key products and services offered by the banking, financial services and insurance sector are also covered in brief by the program. IFBI has designed a comprehensive program that builds competencies on four dimensions domain, application, technology and customer-service needed by new-age banking professionals. Admission to the program will be through an admission test and interview. Selected candidates would be provided with provisional appointment letters at the time of enrolment, and after successful completion of the program will join Axis Bank at the officer level. We maintain our Buy rating on NIIT with a target price of `55.
Economic and Political News

Electricity export to India possible, says Iran Government could aim at fiscal deficit of 4.3% in FY2013: Finance Minister Oil companies push for `5/litre hike in petrol price SP parliamentary board meet to decide CM tomorrow
Corporate News
Government stake in ONGC down to 69% post sale SAIL hikes prices by up to 2% on rising demand Subex signs a multi-million dollar deal with Gulf-based telecom company Tata Steel hikes prices by `1,000 per tonne
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
March 7, 2012
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
March 7, 2012

Market Outlook 7th March 2012

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Market Outlook 7th March 2012

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Market Outlook 7th March 2012

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Market Outlook

(1.1) (127.1) 11,580 (3.9) (449.8) 11,154 (1.8) (151.7) 0.5

(1.6) (203.7) 12,759 (1.4) (0.6) (2.0) (1.4)

(40.2) (61.0) (59.8) (34.6)

2,910 5,766 9,638 2,932 2,410

(2.2) (459.1) 20,806

Indian ADRs Infosys Wipro ICICI Bank HDFC Bank

(2.3) (2.9) (5.1) (3.1)

(1.3) (0.3) (1.8) (1.1)

$55.8 $10.6 $33.8 $33.0

Advances / Declines Advances Declines Unchanged

1,010 1,817 119

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (March 05, 2012)

Volumes (` cr) BSE NSE

FII Derivatives (March 06, 2012)

Purch 3,196 2,903

Sales 3,572 2,601

Net (376) 302

Open Interest 13,508 27,624

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539

Market Outlook | India Research

Assembly poll results 2012

Ranbaxy launches Atrovastatin in Italy, Sweden and Netherlands

Market Outlook | India Research

Economic and Political News

Market Outlook | India Research

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800

You might also like