Inflation and Its Control
Inflation and Its Control
Inflation and Its Control
Excess demand refers to the situation when aggregate demand is in excess of aggregate supply of
corresponding to full employment in the economy.
Consequences
Aggregate demand beyond its full employment level output remains constant simply
because output can not exceed its full employment level.
Flow of goods & service remains constant, excess demand implies excess pressure of
purchase on the existing supplies.
Excess pressure of purchase on the existing goods must cause rise in prices. This implies a
situation of inflation
INTRODUCTION
What is inflation?
It may get lot clearer by saying, "it's a general and progressive increase in
prices" It occurs when the value of goods rises faster than the value of money.
For e.g. Tur Dal (Pigeon Pea); which used to cost about 60 Rs /Kg is now
around 100Rs/Kg.
India
Annually consumes 2.6 million tonnes tur. But it produces only about 2.5
million tonnes. The shortfall is met by importing up to 3 lakh tonnes tur. In
2009, while the consumption is steady, there is a big question mark over
domestic production and imports. If the demand-supply gap is too large, prices
will soar until demand gets rationed.
But inflation is a much more complex phenomenon than simply the increase of
prices.
To start the largest influence on why inflation occurs is the economic situation
of a country.
If a country needs more money spent on its resources or services one way of
accomplishing this is to raise the minimum wage.
By raising minimum wage lower income families can now earn larger amounts
of money and therefore have more to spend on goods and services.
However as minimum wage increases so does the cost of goods and services.
Since the manufacturer of goods and services now has to pay its employees’
larger wages it has to account for that spending by raising prices.
In the end an equal balance almost occurs however more money is being spent
and transferred throughout the market therefore making the economy stronger.
Within these changes external and internal forces affected the inflation rates.
Social Impact:
Inflation not only impacts a nation monetarily; it also has a large social impact
on the people and businesses within an economy, and its overall effect can drive
an economy to the point of collapse.
Taking a look at these past examples of inflation, one can prepare an economy
facing present day inflation on what to avoid and what can be done.
The economy facing economic hardships can learn how to handle the social
impacts, how to create a successful plan that can lower inflation and restore a
country to some form of economic balance and how the government influences
inflation.
Levels OF Inflation:
Pros:
The first reaction to the term inflation is in most cases negative; however mild
inflation is an indicator of a healthy economy.
In Some cases, stable prices and zero inflation rate might trigger deflation
(general decrease in prices), which in turn would entail recession, bankruptcy,
and can even entail depression.
Thus some economists say that small steady inflation is “greasing the wheels of
commerce.”
Cons:
While moderate and mild inflation is considered an indicator of healthy
economy, inflation above these mild levels is considered to have a negative
impact.
As the government increases the money supply, and therefore the taxes, people
are willing to spend more money.
With the growth of inflation, tax rates grow as well, and so people are even
more willing to spend the money for two main reasons:
To avoid paying taxes on holding currency,
And to buy products before they increase in price.
Hence, in such economic conditions the demand for various goods is rapidly
growing, which naturally causes the rise of prices.
As the prices go up, the value of money goes down, and the uncertainty
increases. This increase discourages investments and savings, and
encourages purchasing (which is only greasing the vicious circle).
Unfair money redistribution will occur. Those people who earn money on
fixed incomes will receive the same amount, which is actually worth less,
while the ones on a more flexible incomes will keep in pace with
inflation. This way, money will be redistributed from those on fixed
incomes to those on flexible incomes.
An example of a person on fixed income is a pensioner, and an example
of a person on a flexible income is any entrepreneur or someone in
commerce.
In case internal inflation rate is higher than abroad. Exchange rate with
other countries will be greatly undermined by the misbalance of
international trade, In case internal inflation rate is higher than abroad.
Some economists believe that inflation should be viewed as stealing the money
from the citizens of a country by its government. In any case, government can
quell the inflation rate unless it has gone too far. But if the government is
procrastinating with immediate actions, justifying itself with “valid” reasons,
this is with a 99 percent probability an indicator of stealing money. Of course,
the government does not intend to pay the money back.
Moreover, there is absolutely no chance that someone can stop or fight this
mass fraud. The reason for such a safe one-way borrowing is that government is
the only entity that controls money. When government increases money supply,
this new money has no value, but rather is “mere printed paper with no intrinsic
exchange value”
Generally, such a type of hyperinflation can get out of control, which would
hurt nation’s economy very badly.
EXAMPLES:
Inflation has been the major economic problem that Latin America has faced in
the past century. Inflation is when the currency of a country is losing value, and
the price of goods is increasing. In Latin America's case inflation came into play
when the governments of Latin American countries were spending money they
didn't have, and deficits grew and grew. So they could keep spending money,
the governments would print more money, and used this newly printed money
to finance their various programs they had in action, and one's about to get
going. By using newly printed money to finance these programs that just added
more and more currency in circulation. This made the worth of the currency
decline and decline. Also when you increase the money supply the price of
goods rises and since money was losing value the price of goods will increase
due to that too.
Awesh
COntrol
Fortunately, inflation is a stoppable process unless it has gone too far.
There exist several methods that can be implemented to stop inflation. The
Government influences inflation rates by implementing different monetary
policies, and by setting bank interest rates.
Generally, Central (or National) Banks all over the world fight inflation by
decreasing money supply, and by setting high interest rates. In addition,
governments can institute wage and price controls (referred to as income
policies) to fight excessive inflation rates.
However, this method has several negative outcomes; price control distorts the
overall functioning of nation’s economy because it encourages decreases in
products’ quality, shortages, etc.
Government is the only entity that is responsible for inflation, and it can control
inflation rates by imposing specific policies. When government does not impose
them, it is involved in stealing money from its people.
Inflation Control
Generally, a moderate rate of inflation has been the ultimate goal. More
recently, however, a few countries have pursued policies that strive to eradicate
inflation altogether through complete price stability.
The monetarist perception that the root of inflation is solely the excessive
creation of money remains.
The last, and more widely accepted, case shows that the problem is hardly a
technical one; but rather a political one.
From all of the confusion, it is clear is that a little inflation, perhaps 1 to 3
percent, is a far more efficient policy choice than zero inflation.
Such a moderate inflation target would allow real wages to decline where
necessary without firms having to impose wage cuts or fire workers.
Thus, "rather than misusing their energy pursuing zero inflation, governments
should be exploring the other policy options now available.
Only in recent years has this question even been feasible. Previously, if inflation
was single digit, it was quite acceptable. "Now, however, the world is entering
an era of low inflation that brings more ambitious targets within reach.
According to the International Monetary Fund, average inflation in the
industrial countries is running at only just over 2 percent a year, and although
the rate is much higher in the developing countries, it is falling quickly."
Pushing unemployment below that level would cause inflation to rise and
thereby ruin the other objective--stable prices, economic growth, which are our
objectives in the long run.
This can be very well explained with the help of Philips Curve.
The most widely used theoretical model for examining inflation has been the
Phillip's Curve. In macroeconomics , the Phillip's Curve is depicted as the
relationship between unemployment and inflation.( A British economist named
A. William Phillips was the first to describe this curve in 1958. Hence its name.
He published findings that defined a relationship between unemployment and
inflation based on data he'd collected)
The curve in its early life basically said that unemployment and inflation are
negatively related. When unemployment is low, inflation is high. When
unemployment is high, inflation is low.
This correlated directly to Phillips findings. Figure 6-1 shows this relationship.
The unemployment rate is graphed on the horizontal axis and the inflation rate
is graphed on the vertical axis. As you can see when the unemployment rate
decreases from u0 to u', the inflation rate climbs. When the unemployment rate
increases from u0 to u" the inflation rate drops.
What does this mean? Well essentially, when unemployment decreases more
people are employed and output is higher than normal. Higher output and
employment leads to an increase in the price level because firms have to pay
their workers more. Workers have to pay more because unemployment is low
and it is easier for workers to find other jobs and it is difficult for firms to hire
new workers; there aren't many people unemployed, i.e. looking for work.
The same is true for high unemployment, only vice-versa. Firms can pay their
workers less because there are plenty of unemployed people willing to take that
worker's place. So the wage, a factor of price and therefore inflation, is lower.
The fundamentals behind this idea are rather elementary. The increase in
unemployment lowers aggregate wages. With less income to spend, consumers
can only purchase a smaller quantity of goods. Competition among firms forces
prices to fall.
Reduce changes in the economy created by the inflation in the past, and
by the reactions of savers,
Causes ( AKram)
3. Large foreign market growth resulting in increased demand for exports which
lower the supply for local consumers
For example study( For presentation only)Analysis- During the world wars
government spending increases a massive amount due to the production engine
required to supply the troops. The result of this is an increase in wages within
the country but a large amount of exportation outside of the country with
limited imports. Prices are forced to sky rocket as current residents compete for
limited goods. On the reversed side, when analyzing the deflationary times
during the recession it can be seen that the money supply was at an all time low
with the market crash and inadvertently the government was forced to combat it
with large government spending to boost production to place money back in the
economy. On the short time span the supply was far too high for the demand
and prices plummeted but as people started to earn money again, deflation
started to plateau and the economy became stabilised again.
1. Increase in government taxation increases the cost of revenue for a firm and
requires an increase in price to maintain margins
2. Wage increase from increased living cost or union power will result in a price
increase. Normal wage increase can be expected from predicted inflation rates
but a jump in worker power from labor unions can result in an increase in
inflation over the standardized value.
3. External factors from other countries can also force up inflation. This can
include an increase in commodity price such as oil, a loss of exchange value
which result in more expensive importation of raw materials or an increased
difficulty in finding resources from political problems or lack of known
resources
For example purpose ( presentation)Analysis: The major proof for this theory is
during the 1973 where OPEC decided to increase their oil prices by which
initially went from 3.00 USD to 12.00USD within the year and peaked in 1981
at 35.00USD. Petroleum is a major import for all developed countries including
the UK. The result of the increased oil prices forced businesses to increase
prices to maintain profit and therefore drove inflation rates through the roof.
Such a dramatic increase in oil prices resulted in a recession within all the oil
dependent countries including the UK. To a minor extent this happened again in
the 1989 with the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq which resulted in Iraq's controlling
share in OPEC. Thus remained high until the US invaded and recovered
Kuwait.
On a secondary extent it can be seen during the late 1940's through the 1950's
that inflation rates were higher then wanted. During this time many labor
movements including women rights movements resulted in employers spending
more on their employees and required them to increase prices. This inflationary
period was not necessarily bad as it was occurring within the majority of the
first world nations and resulted in an increased production capacity with the
larger work force of women and men.
Measurement of Inflation
ACCORDING TO THE RATE OF INFLATION.
a. Moderate Inflation
It is a mild and tolerable form of inflation. It occurs when prices are rising
slowly When the rate of inflation is less than 10 per cent annually, or it is a
single digit int1ation rate, it is considered to be a moderate inflation in the
present the economy.
Prof. Samuelson observes that moderate inflation is typical today in most
industrialized countries. The following are the major characteristics of moderate
inflation:
i. There is a single digit inflation rate (less than 10 per cent) annually.
ii. It does not disrupt the economic balance.
iii. It is regarded as stable Inflation in which the relative prices do not get far out
of line.
iv. People’s expectations remain more or less stable under moderate inflation
v. Under a low inflation rate, the real interest rate is not too low or negative, so
Money can serve its role as a store of value without difficulty.
vi. There are modest inefficiencies associated with moderate inflation.
c. Hyperinflation
In the case of hyperinflation, prices rise every movement, and there is no limit
to the height to which prices might rise. Therefore, it is difficult to measure its
magnitude, as prices ris~ by fits and starts. . In quantitative terms, when prices
rise over 1000 per cent in a year, it is called a hyperinflation. Austria, Hungary,
Germany, Poland and Russia witnessed hyperinflation in the wake of World
War I. Hyperinflation notably took place in Germany in 1920-1923. The
German price index rose from 1 to 10,00,000,000 during
January 1922 to November 1923. Believe it or not, it is a fact!
The Main Features of Hyperinflation are
I. During hyperinflation, the price rise is severe. The price index moves up by
leaps and bounds. It is over 1000 per cent per year. There is at least a 50 per
cent price rise in a month, so that in a year it rises to about 130 times.
ii. It represents the most pathetic deterioration in people’s purchasing power.
iii. It is apparently generated by a massive fiscal dislocation.
iv. It is amplified by wage-price spiral.
v. Hyperinflation is a monetary disease.
vi. The velocity of circulation of money increases very fast.
vii. The structure of the relative prices of goods become highly unstable.
viii. The real wages tend to decline fast.
ix. Inequalities increase.
x. Overall economic distortions take place.
Supply shocks
The first two factors fuel inflation by hurting supply (supply shocks) while the
third factor puts pressure on prices through excess demand. There is no dispute
over the view that the current inflation is supply induced and this is officially
well recognised. The Finance Minister has stated that the revised projections of
lower growth and higher inflation are realistic in the context of spiralling crude
price and a deficient monsoon. He has added that India has no control over such
supply induced inflation. His realistic observations also open up a pragmatic
question whether monetary tightening can help combat inflationary pressures.
Aniruddha
Argentina:
Food rioting occurred in Argentina during their time of mass inflation in
several major cities as a protest over the countries collapse. Mothers were
sending their children to the supermarkets to grab as much food as they
could swallow. Being forced to tell your children to go out and steal to make
sure their bellies were full caused many problems in Argentina. All this
resulted from a high inflation rate that was not mirrored by a new nominal
income rate. People were left to beg and do anything to get the basics to
stay alive.
China:
The opposite end of the spectrum is cash hoarding; people do not spend
money and therefore do not inject it back into the economy. An example is
the Peoples Republic of China, where the government enacted stiff wage and
price controls after hyperinflation began which causes a form of forced
savings, because goods become unavailable and people hoard cash because
there is nothing they can actually spend it on. This stops or severely slows
the economic flow of a country causing possibly more inflation.
Germany:
The morale of an economy can have a huge downfall during a time of
inflation, people become so worried about where the next paycheck is
coming from or for how much it will be they drive themselves mad. These
pressures can cause adverse effects on a persons home life and their will to
live. Many people during times of inflation find it best to commit suicide as
the final solution to their economic problems. Johann Hoffmann wrote during
the collapse of the Weimar Republic of a '65 year-old merchant Lorene Trunk
[who] shot himself in his bed' saying he too was a victim of the hard times
caused by massive inflation in the country. The social effects of inflation are
hard felt everywhere, but no matter which type of government a country has
the possibility of inflation is always there. However there are numerous ways
to combat and drive down inflation.
AWESH
Examples on Control: ( Study for presentation) .......... also crop as
flexible for you... Thanks!
Brazil:
Plans and actions are bountiful in the world of economic inflation, from price
and wage freezing to privatization of previously state run industry.
Brazil is a prime example of the large scale privatization of formerly state
run industry.
In 1990 a radical effort was put into place by the Brazilian government. They
planned to reduce hyperinflation by reducing the government controlled
direction of the economy, and place price freezing in effect as well. This
worked out well for the inflation in Brazil at the time, but it hit hard in the
middle and upper classes, causing it to be widely unsupported.
A theory about inflation is the Monetary Theory which states the increase in
the supply of money at a rate higher than that of the size of the economy will
cause an increase in inflation. For those who base their economic ideals on
the monetary theory the way to reduce inflation rests on monetary and fiscal
moderation. The government in these times must neither make it too easy
for the public to borrow money, and they themselves can not excessively
borrow. The solution in the mind of someone who believes in the theory may
be hard to comprehend, because the government is known for its large scale
borrowing.
In Brazil during the 1980's the world saw a huge jump in inflation. Cardoso
introduced the Real unit of Value in 1990- the real unit of value or URV for
short was the equivalent to one US dollar at that time.
Using a two step plan, Cardoso was successful in stabilizing the value of the
URV to that of the cruzeiro so that day by day the value increased until the
URV and the US dollar were similar. Secondly all contracts, prices and
salaries were pegged to the URV, not the old cruzeiro. This plan of
revaluation worked in Brazil during their time of economic uncertainty, the
GDP rose and inflation dropped from the astronomical 1,000% to a mere 6%.
Over the long term this plan has seen Brazil bounce back and become a very
well run economic nation. During 2001 the GDP rose 1.5%, along with
exchanging the large trade deficit for a very nice $2.6 billion surplus. The
government of course was the driving force behind the drop in inflation.
Conclusion
All of the historical examples point to radical changes in the economy from
introducing new money to the well being of people and finally price freezes
on many goods and wages that people need. Inflation is a serious issue that
has plagued economies for the better part of the last century, take a look
back and learn something that may help your future.
For example, the weight of the goods must change over time. the importance of
computers was not measured in the price index 100 years ago.
Another problem is the failure of the price index to capture changes in quality.
The quality of a good may have improved by 20%, while the price has only
risen by 10%.
The consumer price index doesn't feel this should be a factor, but many would
disagree. Hence, inflation is not easy to define in practice. This should be kept
in mind
Akram ( You Part is above..u wil talk about (causes and Types) of
inflation..Demand and cost.. .also galloping, moderate and hyper inflation also
small part on suppy shock... i have tried to limit data if u want more you jsut
have to ask) OK!
Please note all the part in Yeallow is for presentation purpose only like mostly
examples you can use ..you use it or you don’t is at your discretion..Thanks!
Later!