Japan's Smaller Military Could Match China 05-05-14

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5/29/2014

Japan's Smaller Military Could Match China - Business Insider

Why Japan's Smaller Military Could


Hold Its Own Against China
JEREMY BENDER AND GUS LUBIN
MAY 5, 2014, 12:55 PM

China's soaring military


spending up 12.3% this
year and aggressive
gestures in the region could
be setting the scene for
major conflict. With various
countries feuding over
Pacific territory, Japanese
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
compared the ratcheting
tensions to Europe before
World War I.
China's $188 billion military
budget far surpasses the
$49 billion budget of Japan,
its biggest regional rival,
even if it doesn't come close
to America's budget of $640

U.S. Air Force

A Japanese F-15.

billion.
China's military is also much bigger than Japan's, with lots more equipment and 2.3
million active personnel compared to 58,000. Consequently, China ranks third on the
Global Firepower Index, which heavily weights sheer numbers, behind the U.S. and
Russia and ahead of Japan at tenth.
But is China's military actually stronger than Japan's?
First of all, it should be noted that any military conflict between China and Japan would
likely draw in Japan's superpower ally. The U.S. is bound by a mutual defense treaty to
protect Japan, including the contested Senkaku islands, and it operates numerous
military bases in Japan.
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5/29/2014

Japan's Smaller Military Could Match China - Business Insider

Even on its own, however, Japan's smaller military has a qualitative advantage over
China.
The majority of Chinese weapons systems are in various stages of decay, as detailed by
Kyle Mizokami at War Is Boring. Only 450 of China's 7,580 tanks are anywhere near
modern. Likewise, only 502 of China's 1,321 strong air force are deemed capable the
rest date to refurbished Soviet planes from the 1970s. Only half of China's submarines
have been built within the past twenty years.
China's first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, is a refurbished Soviet ship from the 1980s that
is too small to launch most long-range planes and will probably be limited to hugging
China's coast.
In comparison, Japan has been supplied with advanced military equipment from the
U.S. In the coming year, it is slated to purchase new anti-missile destroyers, submarines,
amphibious vehicles, surveillance drones, fighter planes, and V-22 Ospreys from the U.S.
Japan also expects to receive deliveries of F-35s starting in March 2017.
The F-35 is Liaoning's worst nightmare, China's state-owned Global Times reported
based on a Kanwa Asian Defense, which found that the F-35 could strike the Liaoning
with hard-to-intercept joint strike missiles from a safe distance of 290km. The F-35
should also be able to locate and engage China's main aircraft, the J-15, before the F-35 is
even detected.
The Japanese islands are also well protected by a missile defense system equipped with
Standard Missile-3 and Patriot Advanced Capability-3 interceptors. These missiles are capable
of shooting down a ballistic missile both inside and outside of Earth's atmosphere.

"Japan has the strongest navy and air force in Asia except for the United States," Dr.
Larry M. Wortzel, the president of Asia Strategies and Risks, said in a presentation
at the Institute of World Politics last September. "They're still restricted by Article 9 of
the Constitution, which forever renounces war as a sovereign right of the nation ... but
you don't want to mess with them."
While Japan maintains a significant qualitative advantage, however, the vast size of
China's military should not be understated, nor its rapid expansion and modernization.
No wonder Japan has responded with its first military expansion in more than 40 years.
Meanwhile, the standoff is hurting most groups short of the military industrial complex.
As noted by U.S. Trust's Joseph Quinlan: "No one is predicting an armed conflict between
China and Japan, but the rising ill will between the two parties hardly engenders investor
confidence in a region built on peaceful regional relations and unfettered trade and
investment flows."
* Copyright 2014 Business Insider, Inc. All rights reserved.

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