DHL Logistics-TrendRadar 2014
DHL Logistics-TrendRadar 2014
DHL Logistics-TrendRadar 2014
Sensor Technology
Multiple Purpose Networks
Localization
& Location
Intelligence
Urban
Logistics
Cloud Logistics
Robotics &
Automation
3D Printing
Autonomous
Logistics
Big Data/
Open Data
Internet
of Things
Supergrid
Logistics
Anticipatory Logistics
Shareconomy Logistics
Crypto-currencies
& Crypto-payment
LOGISTICS
TREND RADAR
Delivering insight today.
Creating value tomorrow!
Version 2014
Real
Time
Services
PUBLISHER
DHL Customer Solutions & Innovation
Represented by Matthias Heutger
Senior Vice President Strategy, Marketing & Development
53844 Troisdorf, Germany
PROJECT DIRECTOR
Dr. Markus Kckelhaus
DHL Trend Research
PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND EDITORIAL OFFICE
Katrin Zeiler
DHL Trend Research
IN COOPERATION WITH:
AUTHORS
Dr. Nedialka Bubner
Dr. Nikolaus Bubner
PD Dr. Ralf Helbig
Martin Jeske
LOGISTICS
TREND RADAR
Delivering insight today.
Creating value tomorrow!
Version 2014
Preface
PREFACE
Dear Reader,
Why do we look into trends? Researching trends and
deriving from this implications for business is no
longer a niche task. DHL Trend Research is now an
established and key source of inspiration, not only
within DHL but also for our wider innovation
community, partners and customers worldwide.
The first edition of the Logistics Trend Radar was
published in 2013, representing the starting point
of a new research series by DHL.
It provided an inspiring benchmark for strategy
and innovation; it was warmly received by the global
logistics community and has triggered a number of
successful pilot solutions inside and outside DHL.
Yours sincerely,
Matthias Heutger
Table of Contents
PREFACE..................................................................................................... 1
LOOKING BACK:
HOT TOPICS IN LOGISTICS INNOVATION THROUGH 2013 ......................... 3
RIGHT HERE, RIGHT NOW: MEGATRENDS AND
TECHNOLOGIES DRIVING LOGISTICS INNOVATION ................................... 5
CHANGES IN THE LOGISTICS TREND RADAR ............................................. 11
AT A GLANCE: THE NEW LOGISTICS TREND RADAR .................................. 12
OVERVIEW: SUMMARY OF THE KEY TRENDS ............................................. 14
IN-DEPTH: SOCIAL & BUSINESS TRENDS ................................................... 16
IN-DEPTH: TECHNOLOGY TRENDS ............................................................. 30
REFERENCES: BEST PRACTICE AND SOURCES ........................................... 41
Looking Back
Big data boosts logistics: Using data is an untapped logistics asset says a new report from DHL, Cold Chain News, Issue 188, February 2014, Page 3.
Looking Back
and orchestrate the logistics flows of traditionally manufactured parts and of parts produced by 3D printing.
For all industries, new business models were expected
to emerge (e.g., 3D-Fabs). This would create windows
of opportunity for logistics providers to extend their
value chain by integrating new 3D-production capabilities
into their end-to-end logistics services.
LOGISTICS AUTOMATION
THANKS, XBOX AND IPHONE2
Technological advancement in consumer electronics
during 2013 positively impacted the feasibility of new
logistics use cases. In intra-logistics, Augmented
Reality promised to become a tangible technology
with higher impact than previously predicted, often
guiding and accelerating precise hands-free activities.
Xbox is a registered trademark of Microsoft Corp.; iPhone is a registered trademark of Apple Inc.
Megatrends
Circular Economy & Sustainability
Connected Experiences
Regional Empowerment
Individualization
MAJOR MEGATRENDS
As well as the most discussed megatrends and drivers
of recent years such as demographic changes, urbanization, consumerization, and individualization more
and more new drivers are beginning to impact logistics
companies, particularly how they define strategy and
operate business.
Regional empowerment
With ongoing globalization, companies are continuing to
expand their global footprint. But unlike the players in
the first wave of globalization, new entrants to the global
marketplace focus more and more on empowering
underdeveloped regions. Some of them, have developed
dedicated roadmaps for each region, following the
philosophy that in a globally connected world nobody
Technology drivers
Internet Governance & Jurisdiction
Security Vulnerability
Consumerization of IT
Cloud Factories
In-Memory Computing
Marketplaces
Semantic Networks & Web 3.0
Web Fragmentation
Embedded Analytics
Stefan Heck and Matt Rogers: Resource Revolution: How to Capture the Biggest Business Opportunity in a Century, New Harvest, April 2014
McKinsey Global Institute: Open data: Unlocking innovation and performance with liquid information, October 2013
10
BUSINESS TRENDS
TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
PHASE-OUTS
Logsumer is considered to be a topic impacting several
areas of the logistics business. In this edition of the Logistics Trend Radar, it has therefore been phased-out as a
singular trend. The effects of the consumer-driven culture
will be continuously tracked in the radar by specific trends
such as convenience logistics, shareconomy, crowd logistics,
and omni-channel logistics.
11
12
13
14
Impact
Timeframe
Summary
B01
Supergrid Logistics
High
> 5 years
Supergrid logistics will bring up a new generation of logistics companies with primary
focus on the orchestration of global supply-chain networks that integrate swarms of
production enterprises and logistics providers.
B02
Real-Time Services
High
< 5 years
Real-time services enable flexible and efficient adaption to changing conditions and
ad-hoc optimization of supply chains by integrating real-time information into
intelligent and interactive analytics frameworks.
B03
Anticipatory Logistics
High
< 5 years
B04
Urban Logistics
High
< 5 years
Key issues in urban areas are environmental impact and traffic density. Combined
with the growing relevance of e-commerce and home delivery, this makes it essential
to have logistics solutions tailored to the specific requirements of urban areas.
B05
Logistics Marketplaces
High
< 5 years
In the context of globalization and increasingly digital lifestyles, logistics marketplaces create opportunities for new services that can overcome geographical and
functional segmentation, and significantly enhance cost efficiency and capacity
utilization.
B06
Omni-Channel Logistics
High
< 5 years
B07
Crowd Logistics
Medium
< 5 years
Social networks and crowd-based concepts offer new business opportunities. By placing
greater emphasis on crowd sourcing and crowdfunding, logistics providers can speed up
innovation-to-market cycles and create a new sense of community with customers.
B08
Fair Logistics
Low
< 5 years
Logistics will lead the way into a fair and sustainable society by generating social
benefits and fostering the circular economy with its products and services. In future,
dealing thoughtfully with earths limited resources will go hand-in-hand with fair and
respectful human interaction, and sustainable investment in regional empowerment.
B09
Low
> 5 years
In five or more years time, the first wave of digital natives will enter the aged
population segment. Grey power logistics the logistics for an aging society will offer
new services to answer the resulting challenges of this demographic development.
B10
Convenience Logistics
Medium
< 5 years
Customers buying goods online appreciate not just price advantage but convenience.
It saves costs, time, and physical effort and provides 24/7 availability. Todays market
leaders offer food fresher than conventional supermarkets through continuous
cold-chain and direct delivery from the producers site via a standard parcel network.
B11
Multiple Purpose
Networks
Medium
< 5 years
B12
Shareconomy Logistics
Low
< 5 years
A new sharing culture leads to new logistics needs within the digitalized
neighborhood. Logistics infrastructure and service sharing with coopetitors open
new perspectives for logistics providers, and will create new forms of collaboration
across enterprises.
B13
Medium
< 5 years
Following on from the offshoring wave of the last decade, changing economic and
social conditions will bring up new sourcing strategies such as near-shoring,
re-shoring/back-shoring, and even x-shoring.
B14
De-Stressing the
Supply Chain
Medium
< 5 years
Complexity of supply chains and vulnerable customer requirements require the right
mix of transportation modes and services. De-stressing means that the transportation
of a subset of goods may tolerate a tactical slow-down to optimally balance the
supply chain and reduce costs in storage and warehousing.
Impact
Relevance
Summary
T01
High
< 5 years
Big data carries huge untapped potential for optimizing capacity utilization, reducing
risk, improving customer experience, and creating new business models. Open external
data sources will add a new dimension to big data use cases.
T02
Cloud Logistics
High
< 5 years
Beyond the hype, the paradigm of cloud-based services is increasingly tangible for logistics.
Logistics-as-a-Service (LaaS), logistics mall, Supply Chain-as-a-Service (SCaaS), and on-demand
SCM are some of the future topics of logistics.
T03
Autonomous Logistics
High
> 5 years
T04
3D Printing
High
> 5 years
T05
High
< 5 years
T06
Internet of Things
High
< 5 years
The Internet of Things empowers smart objects to be active participants in selfsteering, event-driven logistics processes. Logistics is one of the major industries
which will benefit from the intelligent conjunction of information and material flows.
T07
Medium
< 5 years
T08
Wearable Technology
Low
< 5 years
Beyond the hype, wearable devices (together with responsive environments and
contextual apps) will in the long run significantly change the ways we work and
manage our lives and will impact all industries. Enterprises need to develop a
strategy for adopting wearable devices at an early stage.
T09
Augmented Reality
Low
< 5 years
By adding virtual layers of contextual information at the right time and in the right
place, augmented reality will provide new perspectives in logistics planning, process
execution, and visual analytics.
T10
Low-cost Sensor
Technology
Medium
< 5 years
T11
Crypto-currencies &
Crypto-payment
Medium
< 5 years
15
16
Benefits:
For the logistics provider
Description
Supergrid logistics rests upon a well-structured, modularly
configurable logistics service portfolio. Per service module,
internally operated or external services can be selected,
orchestrated, and executed on demand. Based on Logisticsas-a-Service (LaaS) methods, smart business networks can
be created and individual intermodal, multimodal, and
synchromodal solutions can be executed quickly and cost
efficiently. LaaS introduces a new generation of business
models affecting the entire logistics market.
Supergrid drives new market segmentation: The
M
ore flexibility, fast and cost-efficient configuration of
L
imited experience: There are currently only a few
Project Logical
Benefits:
For the logistics provider
real-time data
Enhances customer service, enables value-added services
Improves visibility, transparency, capabilities, and security
functions (e.g., asset control, theft reduction)
For the providers customer
Description
Real-time services provide data in cycles timed to seconds
that can be received, analyzed, and integrated into
operational activities at any time and in any location.
Real-time tracking services: Independent of the location,
Pulse.Agheera.com
www.agheera.com
17
18
Benefits:
For the logistics provider
and transportation)
Supply chain risk reduction through predictive risk
evaluation
Description
Today, predictive logistics planning and execution can
profit from new analytics methods as well as from new
types and sources of data. With more open data being
published, shared, and integrated with traditional and new
data sources into innovative big data-based analytics, the
highest impact can be realized in improving the efficiency
of freight operations, enhancing capacity and asset utilization, adjusting and synchronizing transport schedules in
the context of, for example, synchromodal or other smart
logistics networks, and reducing the risk of supply chain
disruption.
Volume forecast and predictive capacity utilization
F
aster delivery through efficient network planning
I ndividual, dynamically changeable delivery options
Transmetrics
www.transmetrics.eu
Benefits:
For the logistics provider
D
ecreased variability through adopting a planned
model
R
educed externalities associated with last-mile
deliveries
I mprovement of flexibility, speed, and quality of
logistic services
Concerns:
N
o funding to improve existing urban infrastructure
L
imited public sector financing to incentivize
innovation and new business practices
S takeholder complexity when engaging with city
authorities
L
ack of willingness to collaborate across the logistics
sector
N
ew operating models may dilute volumes on existing
networks
Binnenstadservice.nl
www.binnenstadservice.nl
19
20
Benefits:
For the logistics provider
Concerns:
G
uaranteed quality of services only on platforms with
member certification
C
ustomer decisions often rely on customer feedback
and rating systems
F
raud and theft risk
Logistics Mall
car sharing for parcels and cargo). These result from the
new culture of sharing; they are becoming an increasingly
serious and attractive alternative to standard logistics
networks and providers (e.g., Carpoolcargo.com,
Raumobil.de, NochPlatz.de, Monsterzeug.de).
www.logistics-mall.com
Benefits:
For the logistics provider
Description
In future, e-commerce and traditional brick-and-mortar
commerce will no longer move on parallel tracks. Even
today, traditional traders tend to operate an e-shop in
parallel to their physical store, and use one or more
e-commerce platforms such as eBay, MeinPaket.de, or
Amazon Marketplace to access national and even international markets. The next evolutionary step within the
retail business is blending online and offline into a single
24/7 shopping experience.
Hointer
(manufacturer-to-customer, retail-to-customer,
customer-to-customer) and less manufacturer-toretail transports.
More alternative delivery services (parcel
www.hointer.com
21
22
Benefits:
For the logistics provider
Concerns:
L
egal/compliance restrictions for customer
contribution to pickup and delivery processes
DHL MyWays
www.myways.com
Benefits:
For the logistics provider
Description
As a responsible member of the global society, logistics
is challenged to proactively address social and environmental issues, and to develop concepts and solutions
providing social benefit, creating value, and generating
social win-win outcomes for all parties involved along
the supply chain. For example:
Encourage fair society: Logistics must foster the global
logistics providers
Concerns:
S tandards and classifications about fair logistics are
not yet in place
S ocial benefits vary geographically
DHL Envirosolutions
www.dhl.co.uk/envirosolutions
23
24
Benefits:
For the logistics provider
www.connected-living.org
Sub-project: Sensor-based health services
Benefits:
Description
Convenience logistics is the response to the specific
requirements of next-generation e-commerce, covering
the entire spectrum of commodity goods including
sensitive and cold-chain products. Demand is constantly
growing, especially for home delivery of fresh and frozen
food through standard networks. This requires the
development and implementation of special processes
and packaging (from -18C to room temperature).
logistics
Lower food distribution costs, due to using standard
networks
Need to develop flexible solutions to connect with
customers (B2C)
recall solutions)
Concerns:
C
onvenience logistics is most successful when using
the capabilities and capacity of standard parcel networks; this will be an issue for traditional supermarket
chains trying to compete with the new players in this
sector
Allyouneed.com
www.allyouneed.com
25
26
Benefits:
Description
Traditionally, various logistics networks have coexisted,
each serving different industries and sectors (e.g., public
sector, retail, health) with different categories of goods
(e.g., food, medicines, chemicals). They also coexist with
standard logistics networks (CEP networks, as well as rail,
road, air, and ocean logistics networks). By using standard
networks for the transportation of special goods, network
and capacity utilization can be optimized, and costs and
delivery times for both customers and logistics providers
can be reduced. Alternative, existing non-logistics networks (e.g., public transport) can be utilized for logistics
purposes or integrated with the logistics infrastructure.
significant opportunity to optimize the pickup and delivery procedure in urban areas (e.g., by establishing an
integrated network of bus and parcel lockers, using
multipurpose vehicles or taxis with integrated parcel
loading space, or using metro tunnels for shipping goods
during the night and at off-peak times, as presented at the
DHL innovation contest for city logistics). Other public
spaces such as parking garages in cities can be used
during the night as warehouse, storage, and
distribution centers (e.g., eBase4Mobility).
B
uying logistics services with constant quality,
DHL Thermobox
www.dhl.com
hood brings people closer together and facilitates collaborative virtual communities. Sharing and swapping in
peer-to-peer models saves costs and time, preserves the
environment, and allows people access to products and
services which are expensive to own or are being used
infrequently. Logistics providers are requested to support
this trend with high-quality C2C services, including
value-added services such as secure peer-to-peer online
and offline payment solutions.
Collaborative business: By sharing development,
Benefits:
For the logistics provider
www.Stuff2Send.com
www.CheckRobin.com
www.CarPoolCargo.com
27
28
Benefits:
Description
Rising wages and fuel costs, as well as increasing supply
chain risks, drive many globally operating enterprises to
re-envision their sourcing strategies. As an alternative to
the offshoring praxis, near-shoring moves core business
and enabling services closer together (e.g., to neighboring
countries). The concept of X-shoring provides holistic
methods to dynamically rebalance logistics networks,
meeting a broad range of decision criteria.
I mproved speed-to-market
T
ime-zone advantages
I mproved cultural alignment
Concerns:
Adaptability of network
Modular approach for infrastructure set-up
Need for highly flexible, skilled workforce
Benefits:
For the logistics provider
Description
Adjusting supply chain modules and selecting the right
configuration of logistics services according to specific
customer requirements in terms of speed, security, carbon
footprint, etc., enable logistics to operate more sustainably,
at lower cost, and with higher quality. To make de-stressing
a significant part of the logistics providers strategy and a
real asset for shippers, effective IT must be in place to
handle synchromodal transportation, to facilitate
collaboration even between competing logistics service
providers, and to provide 360-degree supply chain
visibility at individual shipment level. Predictive analytics
enable ad-hoc adjustments in real time according to
critical events such as strikes, weather conditions, or
accidents. The following strategies and tools can contribute
to more de-stressed supply chains:
T
ailored transportation and supply chain solutions
www.europeangatewayservices.com
29
30
Benefits:
Description
Big data and logistics are a perfect match. Thanks to the
vast degree of digitalization, the enterprises data can
become liquid and shareable in an unprecedented way.
Integrated supply chain data streams from multiple
logistics providers and open data sources have the
potential to overcome logistics market fragmentation
and empower global logistics supergrids.
M
ore reliable, customized, personalized logistics
services
Greater transparency, control, information, participation
Concerns:
For the logistics provider
B
usiness and IT alignment needed as the foundation
DHL Resilience360
www.dhl.com/Resilience
Benefits:
For the logistics provider
C
ustomized, personalized logistics services become
Concerns:
Several cross-company projects on cloud logistics
service marketplaces in Europe with mostly
transnational or regional scope
N
o clear evaluation of cloud logistics use cases
and business models for different types of logistics
providers
www.shipwire.com
31
32
Benefits:
For the logistics provider
pollution
Increased reliability and elimination of human error
Increased operational productivity
Logistics network expansion and enhancement
For the providers customer
Concerns:
Potential risk from hackers and software bugs
Legal restrictions
Cultural differences/reluctance of some social groups
DHL Parcelcopter
www.dhl.com
T04 3D Printing
Topic
This disruptive technology will change tomorrows
logistics by adding a new diversity of manufacturing
strategies. Innovative logistics providers can become
thought leaders in orchestrating complex networks that
include traditional and 3D manufacturers.
Description
3D printing or additive manufacturing (AM) is a process
of making three-dimensional solid objects from a digital
model. After the first wave of pilots enabling the fabrication of simple plastic prototypes, the current generation
of 3D printers can handle a much broader range of
materials (from titanium up to food and stem cells),
manufacture fully functional tools (such as complex
mechanisms, batteries, transistors, and LEDs), and enable
manufacturing of larger-sized products, with higher
precision and finer resolution while wasting less material.
According to the McKinsey Global Institute, the economic
impact of 3D printing is likely to grow significantly, up to
$550 billion per year by 2025.
3D impact on logistics networks: 3D printing will lead
Benefits:
For the logistics provider
Concerns:
Potential risk from hackers and software bugs
Legal restrictions
Cultural differences/reluctance of some social groups
Sculpteo
www.sculpteo.com
33
34
Benefits:
Description
Due to the growing popularity of e-commerce, an
increasing number of small individual orders have to be
handled in warehouses, and fulfillment and distribution
centers. Robotics and automation are an increasingly hot
topic for global players. For example, Google purchased
seven companies in an effort to create a new generation
of robots that can be used in manufacturing and retailing
(e.g., for product picking and placing). With constant
improvement in robot performance, speed, and repetition
accuracy, and with rapid progress in grip and sensor
technology, the cost-effective use of 3D object recognition,
and an improved price/performance ratio, we are likely
to see more intensive adoption of these technologies in
different operational areas.
loosely stored parcels of different sizes represent timeintensive laborious activities. Parcel robots enable seamless, automated connection between parcel delivery in a
transshipping center and subsequent parcel distribution.
Automated pickup and drop-off points (PUDOs) are
M
ore personal flexibility through 24/7 service
availability
Concerns:
Cost-prohibitive infrastructure requirements currently
limit greater uptake and application of robot
technology
Requires the right balance of flexibility and
automation; the concept of fully automated factories,
warehouses, and fulfillment centers has been revised
in favor of hybrid concepts
Multishuttle Moves
www.dematic.de
www.fraunhofer.de
Benefits:
For the logistics provider
L
ogistics costs reduction (in-stock items, delivery
routes)
E
nd-to-end real-time monitoring of goods condition,
www.smart-rti.de
35
36
Benefits:
For the logistics provider
L
ocalization services can provide real-time
Locoslab
www.locoslab.com
Benefits:
For the logistics provider
capabilities
Revolutionary potential for task execution through gesture
and thought control, hands-free operational processes
For the providers customer
Description
The term wearable computing refers to computerpowered devices or equipment that can be worn by a
user, including clothing, watches, glasses, shoes, and
similar items. Wearable computing devices can range
from providing very specific, limited features like heart
rate monitoring and pedometer capabilities to advanced
smart functions and features similar to those a
smartphone or smart watch offers.
Wearable devices supporting working routines based
H
olistic life experience seamlessly integrating the
stage of development
Airwriting
Research prototype at
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
37
38
Benefits:
For the logistics provider
Concerns:
Complications with regards to integrating the
technology into existing warehouse management
systems
Difficulties in meeting customer-defined requirements
of standards and disclosure
Cost intensive
Robustness and reliability of AR systems
www.sap.com
www.vuzix.com
Benefits:
For the logistics provider
Concerns:
Complications with regards to integrating the
technology into existing warehouse management
systems
Difficulties in meeting customer-defined requirements
of standards and disclosure
Cost intensive
Robustness and reliability of AR systems
www.dhl.com
39
40
Benefits:
For the logistics provider
services
Fluid financial transactions and settlement across country
and currency boarders based on a virtual reference
currency as a potential core capability of a global logistics
supergrid
For the providers customer
F
lexible cross-national payment and settlement options
End-to-end-convertibility and equality of conventional
Ripple
With the first countries introducing their own cryptocurrencies as an alternative to their fiat currency (e.g.,
Auroracoin in Iceland), established digital payment and
e-commerce platforms will have to cope with changing
user expectations. First players are already providing
services that allow online shops to accept crypto-currency
while getting paid in local currency (e.g., Cryptopay, UK).
Convertibility of virtual and physical currency: Today,
www.ripple.com
References
REFERENCES
B07 Crowd Logistics
TomTom, MDM
LIVE!Singapore
Prediction
City-Log.eu/City-Move.eu
41
42
References
Navigation
Technology Trends
T01 Big Data, Open Data & Data-as-a-Service
Big Data enabled Logistics Solutions: DHL Resilience360, DHL Smart
Truck, DHL MyWays, DHL Parcel Volume Prediction, DHL Geovista,
DHL Address Management, Transmetrics, Agheera: pulse.agheera,
Hamburg SmartPort Logistics, FedEx: SenseAware, Descartes Systems:
Logistics Flow Control
Open Data Platforms: MATERNA Mobility Data Marketplace, ArcGIS
Online Open geodata and maps, Open Data Globe/CitySDK API: Real
Time Traffic Flows, GB Road Traffic Counts: Governmental Open Data
Singapore, Streetspotr
Freedom of Creation
Sources
SOURCES
GENERAL LOGISTICS TRENDS, MEGATRENDS, AND DRIVERS
Frank Straube et al.: Technologien und Innovationen in der
Logistik, Schriftenreihe Logistik der TU Berlin, Sonderband 4,
2013
43
44
Sources
Sources
Mitfahrzentrale fr Sofas, Klaviere oder Pferde. Neue Internet-Plattform hilft beim Transport von Sperrigem und weit
Entferntem, Academicworld.net
45
46
Sources
Sources
47
48
Sources
TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
Delfmann, W., Jaeckel, F: The Cloud Logistics for the Future?, 6th
International Scientific Symposiums on Logistics, Hamburg 2012
Sources
49
50
Sources
Katrin Zeiler
DHL Customer Solutions & Innovation
Junkersring 55
53844 Troisdorf, Germany
Phone: +49 2241 1203 235
Mobile: +49 173 239 0335
e-mail: [email protected]
e-mail: [email protected]
RECOMMENDED READING
AUGMENTED REALITY IN LOGISTICS
www.dhl.com/augmentedreality
www.dhl.com/lcst
www.dhl.com/bigdata
www.dhl.com/lifesciences2020