Climate Change

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O GET to the tent city in the grounds of Perus defence ministry, where UN climate talks are

being held between December 1st and 12th, delegates and hangers-on must pass an assault
course. Its obstacles of steep walls, ropes across ditches and parallel bars, normally used by
soldiers, are a reminder of the difficulties that negotiators face if they are to forge a new
treaty in Paris in a years time to avert destructive climate change. If the Paris meeting is to
succeed, the Lima get-togetherofficially the 20th Conference of the Parties to the UN
Framework Convention on Climate Changemust agree on crucial preparatory steps. Morale
is higher than it was a year ago. But it needs to be.
The objective is to ensure that global temperatures do not rise by more than 2C compared
with pre-industrial levels through a legally binding international treaty that curbs greenhousegas emissions. This would replace the Kyoto protocol, which came into force in 2005, when
it finally lapses in 2020. Countries have agreed to give themselves until the end of March to
propose commitments to cut emissions from 2020 onwards that are known by the ugly term
intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs).
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The process has acquired unexpected momentum. In October the European Union announced
plans to cut emissions by 40% from 1990 levels by 2030. Scores of cities and multinational
companies have made new commitments to curb emissions and adopt low-carbon
technologies. Governments have pledged $9.3 billion to a new Green Climate Fund, intended
to help poor countries cut emissions and adapt to the impact of climate change on their
societies and economies. Most surprising were the announcements in Beijing last month by
Barack Obama that America would cut its emissions from 2005 levels by up to 28% by 2025,
and by Xi Jinping that Chinas emissions would reach a peak around 2030.
Vague though Mr Xis commitment is, it broke the rigid division enshrined in the Kyoto
protocol under which only developed countries are obliged to cut emissions because of their
historic responsibility for the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere. It thus puts
pressure on countries such as India and Brazil to follow suit. Similarly, Mr Obamas pledge
leaves those governments sceptical of climate change, including Australias, Canadas and
Russias, more isolated.
The task facing the climate diplomats in Lima is to inject this renewed momentum into the
negotiations. They must condense a loose 22-page draft of the text of a new treaty into a tight
and workable document of ten pages or so, which has to be finalised by June. In particular,

the Lima meeting must devise a formula to make INDCs clear, open and compatible in
order to hold countries accountable, says a European Union official. It must also discuss how
to scale up the Green Climate Fund to meet a target budget of $100 billion a year by 2020.
And it is meant to co-ordinate action on high-impact measures, such as forest preservation,
between now and then.
Poorer countries insist the process will lose legitimacy unless rich countries commit more
money and technical co-operation to help them adapt to climate change. A group of African
countries said this week that mitigation (ie, emissions cuts) and adaptation should have
material and legal parity in the new treaty.
That is because few expect the INDCs, when totted up, to be ambitious enough. The UN
Environment Programme reported last month that to avoid a 2C increase in temperature
the level above which scientists believe catastrophic damage could occurglobal emissions
must peak within the next ten years and fall to half their current level by 2050. So the treaty
has to be dynamic: in other words, able to accommodate strengthened commitments in
future, according to the EU official. That may help defuse the argument about whether the
INDC targets should be legally binding, as Europe wants but America does not.
Many obstacles remain to effective global action to curb rising temperatures. They include
the recent steep fall in oil prices, which weakens the appeal of renewable energy, and the
capture of Americas Congress by the Republicans, who do not share Mr Obamas
commitment to climate action.
On the other hand, the negotiators have learned from the failure of the most recent attempt to
agree a global treaty, in Copenhagen in 2009. That became a last-minute diplomatic poker
game. The approach now is to put some cards on the table in advance, trying to build a
flexible treaty based on known commitments, which should be more politically viable.
According to Andrew Steer of the World Resources Institute, a Washington-based NGO,
theres now a much greater recognition that actually there are many paths to get to where we
need to get to. In Lima the world must start taking them.
From the print edition: International

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