Pacific Workshop:

Dragon Rising: Is there a growing risk of conflict in Asia?

You are invited to attend a workshop hosted by CENTCOM on Monday, April 22, 2013. Its
purpose is to discuss proper application of analytic methodology on a complex issue. The
topic for this workshop is Dragon Rising: Is the re-emergence of China as a Great Power
increasing the likelihood of conflict in Asia?

This workshop, which is offered under USFs Program in National and Competitive
Intelligence, will take place from 0800-1200, in Room BSN 225 (see attached map).

Please indicate your intention to attend via reply e-mail so that we can get a head count
of how many students to expect.

Should you need assistance on the morning of the workshop, please call (813) 453-2733.

The instructor for this workshop will be CDR James Griffin.

CDR Griffin was commissioned as an Intelligence Officer in the Navy in April 1993
through the NROTC program at the University of Michigan. He graduated from
Michigan with BA in History and has held numerous leadership and staff positions
throughout his intelligence career. His assignments include United States Strategic
Command, United States Special Operations Command, and United States Central
Command.

Your assignment is to review events in the Western Pacific and Southeast Asia and to
prepare your conclusions as if you were going to brief and prepare the incoming, new,
Secretary of Defense.

Some key factors to consider in your analysis:
The history of Japanese and Chinese relations.
The legacy of the Cold War.
The geo-political alliance structure in the region.
Changes in regional military capability.
Growth of Chinese, Japanese, and South Korean economies.
Regional perceptions of US diplomacy and the US military presence.
The impact of leadership changes in China, Japan, and North Korea.
The impact of regional economic integration.

Students should reference the attached document on Critical Thinking and Analytic
Standards when developing their assessments. Questions for the students to address in
their briefings/writings:
- What are the driving factors for the likelihood of conflict in the Pacific?
- What is known, unknown, and what can be assumed?
- What are alternative explanations for trends in the region?
- What are the indications we should be looking for?
- What would change your assessment?

You are expected to use the coming two weeks to research this topic (using a wide range
of resource materials) and to come to the workshop prepared to defend your conclusions.
Upon arrival at the workshop you will be divided into groups and each group will have an
hour to share information, arrive at conclusions and prepare for a presentation of those
conclusions.

During the second hour, a spokesperson from each group will give a short (3-5 minute)
briefing to the instructor. The other members of the team will participate in the ensuing
question and answer period.

During the third hour, each student will be given a writing assignment related to the
workshop topic. The written work will be reviewed by a writing instructor and a critique
will be e-mailed to each individual student.

In the final hour, the instructor will discuss the topic based on his knowledge and
experience. This should be a seminar-like give and take session.










Critical Thinking

Are Critical Thinking skills lacking in America?
Research Findings condensed from Policy Issues in Teaching Education by Mary Kennedy in
the Phi Delta Kappan, May, 91, pp 66166.
First Finding: National assessments in virtually every subject indicate that, although our
students can perform basic skills pretty well, they are not doing well on thinking and reasoning.
American students can compute, but they cannot reason . . . They can write complete and correct
sentences, but they cannot prepare arguments . . . Moreover, in international comparisons,
American students are falling behind . . . particularly in those areas that require higher-order
thinking . . . Our students are not doing well at thinking, reasoning, analyzing, predicting,
estimating, or problem solving.
Second Finding: Textbooks in this country typically pay scant attention to big ideas, offer no
analysis, and pose no challenging questions. Instead, they provide a tremendous array of
information or factlets, while they ask questions requiring only that students be able to recite
back the same empty list.
Third Finding: Teachers teach most content only for exposure, not for understanding.
Fourth Finding: Teachers tend to avoid thought-provoking work and activities and stick to
predictable routines. Conclusion: If we were to describe our current K12 education system on
the basis of these four findings, we would have to say that it provides very little intellectually
stimulating work for students, and that it tends to produce students who are not capable of
intellectual work.
Fifth Finding: Our fifth finding from research compounds all the others and makes it harder to
change practice. Teachers are highly likely to teach in the way they themselves were taught. If
your elementary school teacher presented mathematics as a set of procedural rules with no
substantive rationale; then you are likely to think this is what mathematics is and this is how it
should be studied. And you are likely to teach it in this way. If you studied writing as a set of
grammatical rules rather than as a way to organize your thoughts and to communicate ideas to
others, then this is what you will think writing is, and you will probably teach it so. By the time
we complete our undergraduate education, we have observed teachers for up to 3,060 days.
Implication: We are caught in a vicious circle of mediocre practice modeled after mediocre
practice, of trivialized knowledge begetting more trivialized knowledge. Unless we find a way
out of this circle, we will continue re-creating generations of teachers who re-create generations
of students who are not prepared for the technological society we are becoming.
(Instructors Note: My personal research leads me to believe very little has changed over the last
twenty years. I welcome your thoughts on this during the workshop.)

The following information is from The Miniature Guide to Critical Thinking
(2009) by Dr. Richard Paul and Dr. Linda Elder of the Foundation for Critical
Thinking. You will receive a copy of this tiny book the day of the workshop.
What is Thinking?
To employ ones mind rationally and objectively in evaluating or dealing with a
given situation. Thinking involves the manipulation of information to form concepts,
solve problems and make decisions.
Why do we need Critical Thinking?
The Problem: Everyone thinks; it is our nature to do so. But much of our thinking,
left to itself, is biased, distorted, partial, uninformed or down-right prejudiced. Yet
the quality of our life and what we produce, make, or build depends precisely on the
quality of our thought. Shoddy thinking is costly, both in money and quality of life.
Excellence in thought, however, must be systematically cultivated.
So what is Critical Thinking?
A Definition: Critical thinking is the art of analyzing and evaluating thinking with a
view to improving it.
Simple Definition: Thinking about our thinking with a goal of improving thinking.
Why use Critical Thinking? (Write your own answers to share.)
__________________________________________________________________
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How do we develop our Critical Thinking skills? Use the Eight Elements of Thought.
All Thinking Is Defined by the Eight Elements That Make It Up. Eight basic structures are
present in all thinking: Whenever we think, we think for a purpose within a point of view based
on assumptions leading to implications and consequences. We use concepts, ideas and theories to
interpret data, facts, and experiences in order to answer questions, solve problems, and resolve
issues.


Think About Purpose
Your purpose is your goal, your
objective, what you are trying to
accomplish. We also use the term to
include functions, motives, and
intentions. You should be clear about
your purpose, and your purpose should
be justifiable.
State the Question
The question lays out the problem or
issue and guides our thinking. When
the question is vague, our thinking will
lack clarity and distinctness. The
question should be clear and precise
enough to productively guide our thinking.
Gather Information
Information includes the facts, data, evidence, or experiences we use to figure things out. It does
not necessarily imply accuracy or correctness. The information you use should be accurate and
relevant to the question or issue you are addressing.
Watch Your Inferences
Inferences are interpretations or conclusions you come to. Inferring is what the mind does in
figuring something out. Inferences should logically follow from the evidence. Infer no more or
less than what is implied in the situation.
Clarify Your Concepts
Concepts are ideas, theories, laws, principles, or hypotheses we use in thinking to make sense of
things. Be clear about the concepts you are using and use them justifiably.
Check Your Assumptions
Assumptions are beliefs you take for granted. They usually operate at the subconscious or
unconscious level of thought. Make sure that you are clear about your assumptions and they are
justified by sound evidence.
Think Through the Implications and Consequences
Implications are claims or truths that logically follow from other claims or truths. Implications
follow from thoughts. Consequences follow from actions. Implications are inherent in your
thoughts, whether you see them or not. The best thinkers think through the logical implications
in a situation before acting.
Understand Your Point of View
Point of view is literally the place from which you view something. It includes what you are
looking at and the way you are seeing it. Make sure you understand the limitations of your point
of view and that you fully consider other relevant viewpoints.
More details can be found at http://www.criticalthinking.org/ctmodel/logic-model1.htm

Distinguishing Between Inferences and Assumptions
(Instructors Note: In my five years of teaching this subject I have found inferences and
assumptions are the hardest of the eight elements to grasp. So Ive added this article to your pre-
reading.)
In this article we focus on two of the elements of reasoning: inferences and assumptions.
Learning to distinguish inferences from assumptions is an important intellectual skill. Many
confuse the two elements. Let us begin with a review of the basic meanings:
1. Inference: An inference is a step of the mind, an intellectual act by which one concludes
that something is true in light of something elses being true, or seeming to be true. If you
come at me with a knife in your hand, I probably would infer that you mean to do me harm.
Inferences can be accurate or inaccurate, logical or illogical, justified or unjustified.
2. Assumption: An assumption is something we take for granted or presuppose. Usually it is
something we previously learned and do not question. It is part of our system of beliefs. We
assume our beliefs to be true and use them to interpret the world about us. If we believe that
it is dangerous to walk late at night in big cities and we are staying in Chicago, we will infer
that it is dangerous to go for a walk late at night. We take for granted our belief that it is
dangerous to walk late at night in big cities. If our belief is a sound one, our assumption is
sound. If our belief is not sound, our assumption is not sound. Beliefs, and hence
assumptions, can be unjustified or justified, depending upon whether we do or do not have
good reasons for them. Consider this example: I heard a scratch at the door. I got up to let
the cat in. My inference was based on the assumption (my prior belief) that only the cat
makes that noise, and that he makes it only when he wants to be let in.
We humans naturally and regularly use our beliefs as assumptions and make inferences
based on them. We must do so to make sense of where we are, what we are about, and what is
happening. Assumptions and inferences permeate our lives precisely because we cannot act
without them. We make judgments, form interpretations, and come to conclusions based on our
beliefs.
If you put humans in any situation, they start to give it some meaning or other. People
automatically make inferences to gain a basis for understanding and action. So quickly and
automatically do we make inferences that we do not, without training, notice them as inferences.
We see dark clouds and infer rain. We hear the door slam and infer that someone has arrived. We
see a frowning face and infer that the person is upset. If our friend is late, we infer that she is
being inconsiderate. We meet a tall guy and infer that he is good at basketball, an Asian and infer
that she will be good at math. We read a book, and interpret what the various sentences and
paragraphs indeed what the whole book is saying. We listen to what people say and make
a series of inferences as to what they mean.
As we write, we make inferences as to what readers will make of what we are writing. We
make inferences as to the clarity of what we are saying, what requires further explanation, what
has to be exemplified or illustrated, and what does not. Many of our inferences are justified and
reasonable, but some are not.
As always, an important part of critical thinking is the art of bringing what is subconscious
in our thought to the level of conscious realization. This includes the recognition that our
experiences are shaped by the inferences we make during those experiences. It enables us to
separate our experiences into two categories: the raw data of our experience in contrast with our
interpretations of those data, or the inferences we are making about them. Eventually we need to
realize that the inferences we make are heavily influenced by our point of view and the
assumptions we have made about people and situations. This puts us in the position of being able
to broaden the scope of our outlook, to see situations from more than one point of view, and
hence to become more open-minded.
Often different people make different inferences because they bring to situations different
viewpoints. They see the data differently. To put it another way, they make different assumptions
about what they see. For example, if two people see a man lying in a gutter, one might infer,
Theres a drunken bum. The other might infer, Theres a man in need of help. These
inferences are based on different assumptions about the conditions under which people end up in
gutters. Moreover, these assumptions are connected to each persons viewpoint about people.
The first person assumes, Only drunks are to be found in gutters. The second person assumes,
People lying in the gutter are in need of help.
The first person may have developed the point of view people are fundamentally responsible
for what happens to them and ought to be able to care for themselves. The second may have
developed the point of view the problems people have are often caused by forces and events
beyond their control. The reasoning of these two people, in terms of their inferences and
assumptions, could be characterized in the following way:
Person One Person Two
Situation: A man is lying in the gutter. Situation: A man is lying in the gutter.
Inference: That mans a bum. Inference: That man is in need of help.
Assumption: Only bums lie in gutters.
Assumption: Anyone lying in the gutter is in need
of help.

Critical thinkers notice the inferences they are making, the assumptions upon which they
are basing those inferences, and the point of view about the world they are developing. To
develop these skills, students need practice in noticing their inferences and then figuring
the assumptions that lead to them.
As students become aware of the inferences they make and the assumptions that
underlie those inferences, they begin to gain command over their thinking. Because all
human thinking is inferential in nature, command of thinking depends on command of the
inferences embedded in it and thus of the assumptions that underlie it. Consider the way in
which we plan and think our way through everyday events. We think of ourselves as
preparing for breakfast, eating our breakfast, getting ready for class, arriving on time,
leading class discussions, grading student papers, making plans for lunch, paying bills,
engaging in an intellectual discussion, and so on. We can do none of these things without
interpreting our actions, giving them meanings, making inferences about what is
happening.
This is to say we must choose among a variety of possible meanings. For example,
am I relaxing or wasting time? Am I being determined or stubborn? Am I
joining a conversation or butting in? Is someone laughing with me or laughing at
me? Am I helping a friend or being taken advantage of? Every time we interpret our
actions, every time we give them a meaning, we are making one or more inferences on the
basis of one or more assumptions.
As humans, we continually make assumptions about ourselves, our jobs, our mates,
our students, our children, and the world in general. We take some things for granted
simply because we cant question everything. Sometimes we take the wrong things for
granted. For example, I run off to the store (assuming that I have enough money with me)
and arrive to find that I have left my money at home. I assume that I have enough gas in
the car only to find that I have run out of gas. I assume that an item marked down in price
is a good buy only to find that it was marked up before it was marked down. I assume that
it will not, or that it will, rain. I assume that my car will start when I turn the key and press
the gas pedal. I assume that I mean well in my dealings with others.
Humans make hundreds of assumptions without knowing it---without thinking about
it. Many assumptions are sound and justifiable. Many, however, are not. The question then
becomes: How can students begin to recognize the inferences they are making, the
assumptions on which they are basing those inferences, and the point of view, the
perspective on the world that they are forming?
There are many ways to foster student awareness of inferences and assumptions. For
one thing, all disciplined subject-matter thinking requires that students learn to make
accurate assumptions about the content they are studying and become practiced in making
justifiable inferences within that content. As examples: In doing math, students make
mathematical inferences based on their mathematical assumptions. In doing science, they
make scientific inferences based on their scientific assumptions. In constructing historical
accounts, they make historical inferences based on their historical assumptions. In each
case, the assumptions students make depend on their understanding of fundamental
concepts and principles.
As a matter of daily practice, then, we can help students begin to notice the
inferences they are making within the content we teach. We can help them identify
inferences made by authors of a textbook, or of an article we give them. Once they have
identified these inferences, we can ask them to figure out the assumptions that led to those
inferences. When we give them routine practice in identifying inferences and assumptions,
they begin to see that inferences will be illogical when the assumptions that lead to them
are not justifiable. They begin to see that whenever they make an inference, there are other
(perhaps more logical) inferences they could have made. They begin to see high quality
inferences as coming from good reasoning.
We can also help students think about the inferences they make in daily situations,
and the assumptions that lead to those inferences. As they become skilled in identifying
their inferences and assumptions, they are in a better position to question the extent to
which any of their assumptions is justified. They can begin to ask questions, for example,
like: Am I justified in assuming that everyone eats lunch at 12:00 noon? Am I justified in
assuming that it usually rains when there are black clouds in the sky? Am I justified in
assuming that bumps on the head are only caused by blows?
The point is we all make many assumptions as we go about our daily life and we
ought to be able to recognize and question them. As you develop these critical intuitions,
you will increasingly notice your inferences and those of others. You will also notice what
you and others take for granted. Then increasingly notice how point of view shapes
experiences.
This article was adapted from the book, Critical Thinking: Tools for Taking Charge of
Your Learning and Your Life, by Richard Paul and Linda Elder.