Quality in Supply Chain Design

Lecture 2: Inventory Management

Source
Supplier
Supplier
Distributor
Distributor
Retailer
End-User
Converter
Converter
Consumers
Information Flow
Funds/Demand Flow
Value-Added Services
Material Flow
Reuse/Maintenance/After Sales Service Flow
What Is a Supply Chain?
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Supply Chain Management
Simchi-Levis Definition:
Supply chain management is a set of
approaches utilized to efficiently
integrate suppliers, manufacturers, warehouses,
and stores, so that
merchandise is produced and distributed at the
right quantities, to the right locations, and at the
right time, in order to
minimize system wide costs while satisfying
service level requirements.
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SCM Challenges:
Optimization, integration and synchronization with
development chain
complex, large scale network
facilities with difference, conflicting objectives
dynamic systems
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Outline
Introduction
The Needs, the Costs, and the Challenges
Single Stage Inventory Control
Economic Lot Size Model
Demand Uncertainty
Single Period
Single Period Model
Initial Inventory
Multiple Order Opportunities
Continuous Review Policy
Periodic Review Policy
Service Level Optimization



Why Is Inventory Required?
Uncertainty in customer demand
Shorter product lifecycles
More competing products
Uncertainty in supplies
Quality/Quantity/Costs
Delivery lead times
Incentives for larger shipments
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Inventory Costs
Costs
Order cost:
Product cost
Transportation cost
Inventory holding cost, or inventory carrying cost:
Property taxes, and insurance on inventories
Maintenance costs
Obsolescence cost
Opportunity costs
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How Much Does It Cost?
Distribution and inventory costs are quite substantial
Total U.S. Manufacturing Inventories ($m):
1992-01-31: $m 808,773
1996-08-31: $m 1,000,774
2006-05-31: $m 1,324,108
Inventory-Sales Ratio (U.S. Manufacturers):
1992-01-01: 1.56
2006-05-01: 1.25
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GMs production and distribution network
20,000 supplier plants
133 parts plants
31 assembly plants
11,000 dealers
Freight transportation costs: $4.1 billion (60% for
material shipments)
GM inventory valued at $7.4 billion (70%WIP; Rest
Finished Vehicles)
Decision tool to reduce:
combined corporate cost of inventory and transportation.
26% annual cost reduction by adjusting:
Shipment sizes (inventory policy)
Routes (transportation strategy)
How Much Does It Cost?
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Holding the right amount at the right
time is difficult!---Challenging
Dell Computer was sharply off in its forecast of
demand, resulting in inventory write-downs
1993 stock plunge
IBMs ineffective inventory management
1994 shortages in the ThinkPad line
Ciscos declining sales
2001 $ 2.25B excess inventory charge
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Inventory Management
Inventory Management Decisions:
What to order?
When to order?
How much is the optimal order quantity?
Approach includes a set of techniques
INVENTORY POLICY!!
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Outline
Introduction
The Needs, the Costs, and the Challenges
Single Stage Inventory Control
Economic Lot Size Model
Demand Uncertainty
Single Period
Single Period Model
Initial Inventory
Multiple Order Opportunities
Continuous Review Policy
Periodic Review Policy
Service Level Optimization



Model Description (Assumptions)
D items per day: Constant demand rate
Q items per order: Order quantities are fixed
K, fixed setup cost, incurred every time the warehouse
places an order.
h, inventory carrying cost accrued per unit held in
inventory per day that the unit is held.
Lead time = 0
(the time that elapses between the placement of an
order and its receipt)
Initial inventory = 0
Planning horizon is long (infinite).
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Economic Lot Size Model
Inventory level as a function of time
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Deriving EOQ
(Economic Order Quantity)
Total cost at every cycle:

Average inventory holding in a cycle: Q/2
Cycle time T =Q/D
Average total cost per time unit:

2
hTQ
K
2
hQ
Q
KD

h
KD
Q
2
*

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Economic lot size model : Costs
Economic lot size model: total cost per unit time
h
KD
Q
2
*

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Sensitivity Analysis
b .5 .8 .9 1 1.1 1.2 1.5 2
Increase
in cost
25% 2.5% 0.5% 0 .4% 1.6% 8.9% 25%
Total inventory cost relatively insensitive to order quantities

Actual order quantity: Q
Q is a multiple b of the optimal order quantity Q*.
For a given b, the quantity ordered is Q = bQ*
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What Did We Optimized?
Trade-off between:
Ordering costs
Storage costs


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Outline
Introduction
The Needs, the Costs, and the Challenges
Single Stage Inventory Control
Economic Lot Size Model
Demand Uncertainty
Single Period
Single Period Model
Initial Inventory
Multiple Order Opportunities
Continuous Review Policy
Periodic Review Policy
Service Level Optimization



Demand Uncertainty
The forecast is always wrong
It is difficult to match supply and demand
The longer the forecast horizon, the worse the
forecast
It is even more difficult if one needs to predict
customer demand for a long period of time
Aggregate forecasts are more accurate.
More difficult to predict customer demand for
individual SKUs
Much easier to predict demand across all SKUs
within one product family
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Single Period: The Model
Short lifecycle products
One ordering opportunity only
Order quantity to be decided before demand
occurs
Order Quantity > Demand => Dispose excess
inventory
Order Quantity < Demand => Lose sales/profits

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Single Period: The Approach
Using historical data
identify a variety of demand scenarios
determine probability each of these scenarios will
occur
Given a specific inventory policy
determine the profit associated with a particular
scenario
given a specific order quantity
weight each scenarios profit by the likelihood that it will
occur
determine the average, or expected, profit for a particular
ordering quantity.
Order the quantity that maximizes the average
profit.
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Swimsuit: Single Period Model Example
Probabilistic forecast
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Additional Information
Fixed production cost: $100,000
Variable production cost per unit: $80.
During the summer season, selling price: $125
per unit.
Salvage value: Any swimsuit not sold during the
summer season is sold to a discount store for
$20.
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Two Scenarios
Manufacturer produces 10,000 units while
demand ends at 12,000 swimsuits
Profit
= 125(10,000) - 80(10,000) - 100,000
= $350,000
Manufacturer produces 10,000 units while
demand ends at 8,000 swimsuits
Profit
= 125(8,000) + 20(2,000) - 80(10,000) -
100,000
= $140,000

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Probability of Profitability Scenarios
with Production = 10,000 Units
Probability of demand being 8000 units = 11%
Probability of profit of $140,000 = 11%
Probability of demand being 12000 units = 27%
Probability of profit of $350,000 = 27%
Total profit = Weighted average of profit
scenarios

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Order Quantity that Maximizes
Expected Profit
Average profit as a function of production quantity
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What Did We Optimized?
Expected (average) Profit


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Risk-Reward Tradeoffs
Optimal production quantity maximizes average
profit is about 12,000
Producing 9,000 units or producing 16,000 units
will lead to about the same average profit of
$294,000.
If we had to choose between producing 9,000
units and 16,000 units, which one should we
choose?
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Risk-Reward Tradeoffs
A frequency histogram of profit
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Risk-Reward Tradeoffs
Production Quantity = 9000 units
Profit is:
either $200,000 with probability of about 11 %
or $305,000 with probability of about 89 %
Production quantity = 16,000 units.
Distribution of profit is not symmetrical.
Losses of $220,000 about 11% of the time
Profits of at least $410,000 about 50% of the time
With the same average profit, increasing the production
quantity:
Increases the possible risk
Increases the possible reward
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Observations
The optimal order quantity is not necessarily
equal to forecast, or average demand.
As the order quantity increases, average profit
typically increases until the production quantity
reaches a certain value, after which the average
profit starts decreasing.
Risk/Reward trade-off: As we increase the
production quantity, both risk and reward
increases.
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Outline
Introduction
The Needs, the Costs, and the Challenges
Single Stage Inventory Control
Economic Lot Size Model
Demand Uncertainty
Single Period
Single Period Model
Initial Inventory
Multiple Order Opportunities
Continuous Review Policy
Periodic Review Policy
Service Level Optimization



What If the Manufacturer Has an Initial
Inventory?
Trade-off between:
Using on-hand inventory to meet demand and avoid
paying fixed production cost: need sufficient
inventory stock
Paying the fixed cost of production and not have as
much inventory


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Initial Inventory Solution
Profit and the impact of initial inventory
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Manufacturer Initial Inventory = 5,000
If nothing is produced, average profit =
225,000 (from the figure: 125k+100k) + 5,000 x
80 = 625,000
If the manufacturer decides to produce
Production should increase inventory from 5,000 units
to 12,000 units.
Average profit =
371,000 (from the figure) + 5,000 80 =
771,000
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No need to produce anything
average profit > profit achieved if we produce to
increase inventory to 12,000 units
If we produce, the most we can make on
average is a profit of $370,700.
Same average profit with initial inventory of 8,500
units and not producing anything.
If initial inventory < 8,500 units => produce to raise
the inventory level to 12,000 units.
If initial inventory is at least 8,500 units, we should
not produce anything
Manufacturer Initial Inventory =
10,000
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Outline
Introduction
The Needs, the Costs, and the Challenges
Single Stage Inventory Control
Economic Lot Size Model
Demand Uncertainty
Single Period
Single Period Model
Initial Inventory
Multiple Order Opportunities
Continuous Review Policy
Periodic Review Policy
Service Level Optimization



Multiple Order Opportunities
TWO POLICIES
Continuous review policy
inventory is reviewed continuously
an order is placed when the inventory reaches a particular level
or reorder point.
inventory can be continuously reviewed (computerized inventory
systems are used)

Periodic review policy
inventory is reviewed at regular intervals
appropriate quantity is ordered after each review.
it is impossible or inconvenient to frequently review inventory
and place orders if necessary.
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Continuous Review Policy: Model
Daily demand is random and follows a normal
distribution.
Every time the distributor places an order from the
manufacturer, the distributor pays a fixed cost, K, plus
an amount proportional to the quantity ordered.
Inventory holding cost is charged per item per unit time.
Inventory level is continuously reviewed, and if an order
is placed, the order arrives after the appropriate lead
time.
If a customer order arrives when there is no inventory
on hand to fill the order (i.e., when the distributor is
stocked out), the order is lost.
The distributor specifies a required service level.
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AVG = Average daily demand faced by the
distributor
STD = Standard deviation of daily demand faced
by the distributor
L = Replenishment lead time from the supplier
to the distributor in days
h = Cost of holding one unit of the product for
one day at the distributor
= service level. This implies that the
probability of stocking out is 1 -
Continuous Review Policy
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(Q,R) policy whenever inventory level falls to a
reorder level R, place an order for Q units
What is the value of R?
Continuous Review Policy
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Continuous Review Policy
Average demand during lead time: L x AVG
Safety stock:

A combination of lead time and demand
uncertainty

Reorder Level, R:

Order Quantity, Q:
L STD z
L STD z AVG L
h
AVG K
Q

2
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Service Level & Safety Factor, z
Service
Level
90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96% 97% 98% 99% 99.9%
z 1.29 1.34 1.41 1.48 1.56 1.65 1.75 1.88 2.05 2.33 3.08
z is chosen from statistical tables to ensure
that the probability of stockouts during lead time is exactly 1 -
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Service Level & Safety Factor, z
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Inventory Level Over Time
L STD z
Inventory level before receiving an order =
Inventory level after receiving an order =
Average Inventory =
L STD z Q
L STD z
Q

2
Inventory level as a function of time in a (Q,R) policy
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Continuous Review Policy Example
A distributor of TV sets that orders from a
manufacturer and sells to retailers
Fixed ordering cost = $4,500
Cost of a TV set to the distributor = $250
Annual inventory holding cost = 18% of product
cost
Replenishment lead time = 2 weeks
Expected service level = 97%
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Month Sept Oct Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug
Sales 200 152 100 221 287 176 151 198 246 309 98 156
Continuous Review Policy Example
Average monthly demand = 191.17
Standard deviation of monthly demand = 66.53

Average weekly demand = Average Monthly Demand/4.3
Standard deviation of weekly demand
= Monthly standard deviation/4.3

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Parameter Average weekly
demand
Standard
deviation of
weekly demand
Average
demand
during lead
time
Safety
stock
Reorder
point
Value 44.58 32.08 89.16 86.20 176
87 . 0
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250 18 . 0

Weekly holding cost

Optimal order quantity
679
87 .
58 . 44 500 , 4 2

Q
Average inventory level 679/2 + 86.20 = 426
Continuous Review Policy Example
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Outline
Introduction
The Needs, the Costs, and the Challenges
Single Stage Inventory Control
Economic Lot Size Model
Demand Uncertainty
Single Period
Single Period Model
Initial Inventory
Multiple Order Opportunities
Continuous Review Policy
Variable Lead Times
Periodic Review Policy
Service Level Optimization



Inventory level is reviewed periodically at regular
intervals
An appropriate quantity is ordered after each review
Two Cases:
Short Intervals (e.g. Daily)
(s, S) policy
Longer Intervals (e.g. Weekly or Monthly)
May make sense to always order after an inventory level review.
Determine a target inventory level, the base-stock level
During each review period, the inventory position is reviewed
Order enough to raise the inventory position to the base-stock level.
Base-stock level policy
Periodic Review Policy
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(s,S) policy
Calculate the Q and R values as if this were a
continuous review model
Set s equal to R
Set S equal to R+Q.

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Base-Stock Level Policy
Determine a target inventory level, the base-
stock level
Each review period, review the inventory
position and order enough to raise the inventory
position to the base-stock level
Assume:
r = length of the review period
L = lead time
AVG = average daily demand
STD = standard deviation of this daily demand.
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Average demand during an interval of r + L
days=


Safety Stock=
L r STD z
AVG L r ) (
Base-Stock Level Policy
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Base-Stock Level Policy
Inventory level as a function of time in a periodic
review policy
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Ordering Receiving
Next Receiving
Summary: Economic Lot Size Model
Inventory level as a function of time
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Summary: Lead Time
Inventory level as a function of time
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Base-stock Level
Summary: Safety Stock
Inventory level as a function of time
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Q+R
Safety Stock
Average Inventory
R
Base-Stock Level Policy
Inventory level as a function of time in a periodic
review policy
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Ordering Receiving
Next Receiving
Assume:
distributor places an order for TVs every 3 weeks
Lead time is 2 weeks
Base-stock level needs to cover 5 weeks
Average demand = 44.58 x 5 = 222.9
Safety stock =
Base-stock level = 223 + 136 = 359
Average inventory level =

Base-Stock Level Policy Example
5 8 . 32 9 . 1
17 . 203 5 08 . 32 9 . 1
2
58 . 44 3

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3 weeks cycle + 2 weeks lead time
Inventory level as a function of time in a periodic
review policy
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Outline
Introduction
The Needs, the Costs, and the Challenges
Single Stage Inventory Control
Economic Lot Size Model
Demand Uncertainty
Single Period
Single Period Model
Initial Inventory
Multiple Order Opportunities
Continuous Review Policy
Periodic Review Policy
Service Level Optimization



Optimal inventory policy assumes a specific
service level target.
What is the appropriate level of service?
May be determined by the downstream customer
Retailer may require the supplier, to maintain a specific
service level
Supplier will use that target to manage its own inventory
Facility may have the flexibility to choose the
appropriate level of service
Service Level Optimization
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Service Level Optimization
Service level
inventory
versus
inventory level
as a function
of lead time
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Trade-Offs
Everything else being equal:
the higher the service level, the higher the inventory
level.
for the same inventory level, the longer the lead time
to the facility, the lower the level of service provided
by the facility.
the lower the inventory level, the higher the impact of
a unit of inventory on service level and hence on
expected profit
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Retail Strategy
Given a target service level across all products
determine service level for each SKU so as to
maximize expected profit.
Everything else being equal, service level will be
higher for products with:
high profit margin
high volume
low variability
short lead time
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Target inventory level = 95% across all
products.
Service level > 99% for many products with
high profit margin, high volume and low
variability.
Service level < 95% for products with low profit
margin, low volume and high variability.
Profit Optimization and Service Level
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Outline
Introduction
The Needs, the Costs, and the Challenges
Single Stage Inventory Control
Economic Lot Size Model
Demand Uncertainty
Single Period
Single Period Model
Initial Inventory
Multiple Order Opportunities
Continuous Review Policy
Periodic Review Policy
Service Level Optimization



Materials of some slides are taken from David Simchi-Levi; Philip Kaminsky; Edith Simchi-Levi.
"Designing and Managing the Supply Chain". McGraw-Hill Higher Education, 2008. ISBN-13:
9780073341521 (ISBN-10: 0073341525)
Used by Permission.



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