April 2005

Biomass as Feedstock for a

Bioenergy and Bioproducts Industry:
The Technical Feasibility of a
Billion-Ton Annual Supply
U.S. Department of Energy
Foreword
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the
United States Department of Energy (DOE) both place high
importance on developing resources and conversion
technologies for producing fuels, chemicals and power from
biomass. The two departments are working together on several
aspects of bioenergy. This report is the third to be produced
from joint collaboration. This and other reports can be found at:
http://www.eere.energy.gov/biomass/publications.html.
The website for biomass feedstock research sponsored by the
DOEs Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office
of the Biomass Program (OBP) can be found at: http://
bioenergy.ornl.gov/. More general information about OBPs
feedstock research program can be found at:
http://www.eere.energy.gov/biomass/
biomass_feedstocks.html.
The website for research and development sponsored by the
USDA Forest Service can be found at: http://www.fs.fed.us/
research/.
The website for bioenergy research sponsored by the USDA
Agricultural Research Service can be found at: http://
www.ars.usda.gov/research/programs/
programs.htm?NP_CODE=307.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to acknowledge the support of the
Office of the Biomass Program and in particular, John Ferrell
and Sam Tagore.
The authors gratefully acknowledge the valuable contributions
of Robert Guida, Rajita Majumdar, Borys Mararytsya, and Adam
McCann of BCS, Incorporated in the review of the final draft
and preparation of the print copy.
Notice
This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by
an agency of the United States government. Neither the United
States government nor any agency thereof, or any of their
employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or
assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy,
completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus,
product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would
not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any
specific commercial product, process, or service by trade
name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not
necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement,
recommendation, or favoring by the United States government
or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors
expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of
the United States government or any agency thereof.
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BIOMASS AS FEEDSTOCK FOR
A BIOENERGY AND BIOPRODUCTS INDUSTRY:
THE TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY OF A BILLION-TON
ANNUAL SUPPLY
Robert D. Perlack
Lynn L. Wright
Anthony F. Turhollow
Robin L. Graham
Environmental Sciences Division
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Bryce J. Stokes
Forest Service
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Donald C. Erbach
Agricultural Research Service
U.S. Department of Agriculture
A Joint Study Sponsored by
U.S. Department of Energy
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Prepared by:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
P.O. Box 2008
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6285
Managed by:
UT-Battelle, LLC
for the
U.S. Department of Energy
under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725
DOE/GO-102995-2135
ORNL/TM-2005/66
Contributors
Howard Brown
Biomass Program Communications
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Golden, CO
Marilyn A. Buford
National Program Leader
USDA Forest Service
Washington, DC
Frederick J. Deneke
Coordinator
USDA Forest Service
Cooperative Forestry
Washington, DC
Achim Dobermann
Project Leader
Department of Agronomy and Horticulture
University of Nebraska
Lincoln, NE
James L. Easterly P.E.
Principal
Easterly Consulting
Fairfax, VA
Thomas Foust
Biomass Program Technology Manager
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Golden, CO
Dennis M. May
Program Manager
USDA Forest Service
North Central Research Station
St. Paul, MN
David B. McKeever
Research Forester
USDA Forest Service
Forest Products Laboratory
Madison, WI
James E. McMurtrey III
Research Agronomist (retired)
USDA, Agricultural Research Service
Hydrology and Remote Sensing Lab
Beltsville, MD
Patrick D. Miles
Research Forester
USDA Forest Service
North Central Research Station
St. Paul, MN
John R. Mills
Research Forester
USDA Forest Service
Pacific Northwest Research Station
Portland, OR
Ralph Overend
Research Fellow
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Golden, CO
Michael Pacheco
Director, National Bioenergy Center
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Golden, CO
Robert B. Rummer
Project Leader
USDA Forest Service
Southern Research Station
Auburn, AL
Hosein Shapouri
Agricultural Economist
Office of Energy Policy and New Uses
USDA Office of the Chief Economist
Washington, DC
Kenneth E. Skog
Project Leader
USDA Forest Service
Forest Products Laboratory
Madison, WI
Shahab Sokhansanj
Biomass Supply Systems Logistics
Environmental Sciences Division
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Oak Ridge, TN
Marie Walsh
Adjunct Associate Professor
Bio-Based Energy Analysis Group
University of Tennessee
Knoxville, TN
Executive Summary................................................................................................................................................................ i
1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................. 1
2. The Biomass Feedstock Resource Base ............................................................................................................... 3
2.1 Land Resource for Biomass Production..................................................................................................................... 3
2.2 Biomass Feedstock Consumption.............................................................................................................................. 3
2.3 Composition of the Current Resource Base .............................................................................................................. 3
3. Forest-Derived Biomass Resource Assessment ................................................................................................... 5
3.1 Forestland Resource Base.......................................................................................................................................... 5
3.2 Forest Resources......................................................................................................................................................... 6
3.3 Increasing Biomass Resources from Forests ............................................................................................................ 9
3.3.1 Logging Residues and Other Removals from the Forest Inventory .......................................................................... 9
3.3.2 Forest Residues from Fuel Treatment Thinning ........................................................................................................ 9
3.3.3 Forest Products Industry Processing Residues ...................................................................................................... 14
3.3.4 Urban Wood Residues.............................................................................................................................................. 15
3.3.5 Forest Growth and Increase in the Demand for Forest Products .......................................................................... 16
3.4 Forest Resources Summary .................................................................................................................................... 16
4. Agriculture-Derived Biomass Resources ........................................................................................................... 18
4.1 Agricultural Land Resource Base ............................................................................................................................ 18
4.2 Agricultural Resources ............................................................................................................................................. 19
4.3 Evaluating the Biomass Potential of Agriculture .................................................................................................... 21
4.3.1 Scenario 1: Current Sustainable Availability of Biomass from Agricultural Lands............................................... 21
4.3.2 Scenario 2: Technology Change with Conventional Crops Only (No Land Use Change) ...................................... 22
4.3.3 Scenario 3: Technology Change with Perennial Crops and Land Use Change ..................................................... 23
4.4 Factors Increasing Biomass Resources from Agriculture ...................................................................................... 24
4.4.1 Crop Yields ................................................................................................................................................................ 24
4.4.2 Residue-to-Grain or -Seed Ratios ............................................................................................................................ 25
4.4.3 Residue Collection Technology for Annual Crops ................................................................................................... 26
4.4.4 Cropland Tillage ........................................................................................................................................................ 27
4.4.5 Allocation of Cropland Acres to Perennial Crops .................................................................................................... 28
Contents
4.4.6 Grain to Ethanol or Bioproducts and Soybeans to Biodiesel ......................................................................... 30
4.4.7 Secondary Processing and Other Residues ................................................................................................... 30
4.5 Agricultural Resources Summary .................................................................................................................... 32
5. Potential Concerns and Impacts ................................................................................................................ 34
5.1 Forest-Derived Biomass Resources ................................................................................................................ 34
5.2 Agriculture-Derived Biomass Resources ........................................................................................................ 36
6. Summarized Findings .................................................................................................................................. 38
References ....................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Glossary ....................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Appendix A: Forest Resource Analysis ........................................................................................................................... 48
Appendix B: Agriculture Resource Analysis................................................................................................................... 54
Figure 1. Annual biomass resource potential from forest and agricultural resources ............................................... 2
Figure 2. Summary of biomass resource consumption ................................................................................................ 4
Figure 3. The biomass resource base ............................................................................................................................ 5
Figure 4. Ownership break-up of U.S. forestland by region .......................................................................................... 5
Figure 5. Projections of timber removals, growth, and inventory ................................................................................. 6
Figure 6. Total timberland biomass and forest residue inventory ................................................................................ 8
Figure 7. Estimate of the sustainably recoverable forest biomass .............................................................................. 8
Figure 8. Forest utilization relationships .................................................................................................................... 10
Figure 9. Logging and other removal residues ........................................................................................................... 10
Figure 10. Fire suppression cost and acres burned .................................................................................................... 11
Figure 11. Total treatable biomass resource on timberlands and other forestlands ................................................ 12
Figure 12. Fuel treatments on timberland and other forestland................................................................................. 13
Figure 13. Summary of potentially available forest resources .................................................................................... 16
Figure 14. Summary of cropland uses, idle cropland, and cropland pasture in the
contiguous United States ............................................................................................................................. 18
Figure 15. Harvested acres of oats and soybeans, 19002000................................................................................ 19
Figure 16. Agricultural productivity, 19481996......................................................................................................... 20
Figure 17. Current availability of biomass from agricultural lands ............................................................................. 21
Figure 18. Availability of biomass under increased crop yields and technology changes ........................................ 22
Figure 19. Availability of biomass under increased crop yields, technology changes, and
inclusion of perennial crops ......................................................................................................................... 23
Figure 20. Average corn yields, 19001999................................................................................................................ 24
Figure 21. Breeding of new giant soybean cultivars for forage production ................................................................ 26
Figure 22. Soybean residues from large biomass (top) and conventional soybeans (bottom) ................................. 26
Figure 23. Crops under no-till cultivation ...................................................................................................................... 27
Figure 24. Summary of the allocation of agricultural land under alternative scenarios ........................................... 29
Figure 25. Summary of potentially available agricultural resources ........................................................................... 32
Figure 26. Summary of potential forest and agricultural resources ........................................................................... 35
List of Figures
Table A.1. Current availability of logging residue and other removals........................................................................ 48
Table A.2 Availability factors for logging residue and other removals under current
recovery conditions ...................................................................................................................................... 48
Table A.3 Availability of logging residue and other removals under current recovery conditions............................ 49
Table A.4 Availability of logging residue and other removals under future growth and recovery
conditions...................................................................................................................................................... 49
Table A.5 Total fuel treatment thinnings resource ...................................................................................................... 50
Table A.6 Assumed availability factors for fuel treatment thinnings ......................................................................... 50
Table A.7 Availability of fuel treatment thinnings........................................................................................................ 51
Table A.8 Forest products industry processing residues............................................................................................ 51
Table A.9 Summary of availability of urban wood residues........................................................................................ 52
Table B.1 Comparison of USDA baseline for major crops with change scenarios .................................................... 54
Table B.2 Current availability of biomass from agricultural lands baseline summary .......................................... 55
Table B.3 Summary of biomass from agricultural lands under moderate crop yield increases
without land use change .............................................................................................................................. 56
Table B.4 Summary of biomass from agricultural lands under high crop yield increase without
land use change ........................................................................................................................................... 57
Table B.5 Summary of biomass from agricultural lands under moderate crop yield increase with
land use change ........................................................................................................................................... 58
Table B.6 Summary of biomass from agricultural lands under high crop yield increase with land use
change........................................................................................................................................................... 59
List of Tables
Abbreviations and Acronyms
CAFO .............................................................................................................. confined animal feeding operation
CRP ................................................................................................................ Conservation Reserve Program
DOE ................................................................................................................ U.S. Department of Energy
EERE .............................................................................................................. Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy
FIA .................................................................................................................. Forestry Inventory and Analysis (USDA program)
FTE ................................................................................................................. Fuel Treatment Evaluator
HFRA .............................................................................................................. Healthy Forest Restoration Act
LBS ................................................................................................................ large biomass soybean
MSW .............................................................................................................. municipal solid waste
NCGA ............................................................................................................. National Corn Growers Association
OBP ................................................................................................................ Office of the Biomass Program
quad............................................................................................................... quadrillion (10
15
) BTUs
R&D ............................................................................................................... research and development
RMR ............................................................................................................... residue maintenance requirement
RUSLE ............................................................................................................ Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation
SCI ................................................................................................................. Soil Conditioning Index
TPO ................................................................................................................ Timber Product Output (USDA)
USDA .............................................................................................................. U.S. Department of Agriculture
16
Executive Summary
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) are both strongly committed to
expanding the role of biomass as an energy source. In particular, they support biomass fuels and products as a way to
reduce the need for oil and gas imports; to support the growth of agriculture, forestry, and rural economies; and to
foster major new domestic industries biorefineries making a variety of fuels, chemicals, and other products.
As part of this effort, the Biomass R&D Technical Advisory Committee, a panel established by the Congress to guide
the future direction of federally funded biomass R&D, envisioned a 30 percent replacement of the current U.S.
petroleum consumption with biofuels by 2030.
Biomass all plant and plant-derived materials including animal manure, not just
starch, sugar, oil crops already used for food and energy has great potential to
provide renewable energy for Americas future. Biomass recently surpassed
hydropower as the largest domestic source of renewable energy and currently provides
over 3 percent of the total energy consumption in the United States. In addition to the
many benefits common to renewable energy, biomass is particularly attractive because
it is the only current renewable source of liquid transportation fuel. This, of course,
makes it invaluable in reducing oil imports one of our most pressing energy needs. A key question, however, is how
large a role could biomass play in responding to the nations energy demands. Assuming that economic and financial
policies and advances in conversion technologies make biomass fuels and products more economically viable, could
the biorefinery industry be large enough to have a significant impact on energy supply and oil imports? Any and all
contributions are certainly needed, but would the biomass potential be sufficiently large to justify the necessary
capital replacements in the fuels and automobile sectors?
The purpose of this report is to determine whether the land resources of the United States are capable of producing a
sustainable supply of biomass sufficient to displace 30 percent or more of the countrys present petroleum
consumption the goal set by the Advisory Committee in their vision for biomass technologies. Accomplishing this
goal would require approximately 1 billion dry tons of biomass feedstock per year.
The short answer to the question of whether that much biomass feedstock can be produced is yes. Looking at just
forestland and agricultural land, the two largest potential biomass sources, this study found over 1.3 billion dry tons
per year of biomass potential (Figure 1) enough to produce biofuels to meet more than one-third of the current
demand for transportation fuels. The full resource potential could be available roughly around mid-21
st
century when
large-scale bioenergy and biorefinery industries are likely to exist. This annual potential is based on a more than
seven-fold increase in production from the amount of biomass currently consumed for bioenergy and biobased
products. About 368 million dry tons of sustainably removable biomass could be produced on forestlands, and about
998 million dry tons could come from agricultural lands.
Forestlands in the contiguous United States can produce 368 million dry tons annually. This projection includes 52
million dry tons of fuelwood harvested from forests, 145 million dry tons of residues from wood processing mills and
pulp and paper mills, 47 million dry tons of urban wood residues including construction and demolition debris, 64
million dry tons of residues from logging and site clearing operations, and 60 million dry tons of biomass from fuel
treatment operations to reduce fire hazards. All of these forest resources are sustainably available on an annual
basis. For estimating the residue tonnage from logging and site clearing operations and fuel treatment thinnings, a
number of important assumptions were made:
all forestland areas not currently accessible by roads were excluded;
all environmentally sensitive areas were excluded;
equipment recovery limitations were considered; and
recoverable biomass was allocated into two utilization groups conventional forest products and biomass for
bioenergy and biobased products.
From agricultural lands, the United States can produce nearly 1 billion dry tons of biomass annually and still continue
to meet food, feed, and export demands. This projection includes 428 million dry tons of annual crop residues, 377
17
million dry tons of perennial crops, 87 million dry tons of grains used for biofuels, and 106 million dry tons of animal
manures, process residues, and other miscellaneous feedstocks. Important assumptions that were made include the
following:
yields of corn, wheat, and other small grains were increased by 50 percent;
the residue-to-grain ratio for soybeans was increased to 2:1;
harvest technology was capable of recovering 75 percent of annual crop residues (when removal is
sustainable);
all cropland was managed with no-till methods;
55 million acres of cropland, idle cropland, and cropland pasture were dedicated to the production of
perennial bioenergy crops;
all manure in excess of that which can applied on-farm for soil improvement under anticipated EPA
restrictions was used for biofuel; and
all other available residues were utilized.
The biomass resource potential identified in this report can be produced with relatively modest changes in land use,
and agricultural and forestry practices. This potential, however, should not be thought of as an upper limit. It is just
one scenario based on a set of reasonable assumptions. Scientists in the Departments of Energy and Agriculture will
explore more advanced scenarios that could further increase the amount of biomass available for bioenergy and
biobased products.
Figure 1: Annual biomass resource potenti al from forest and agricultural resources
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Total resource
potential
Agricultural
resources
Forest resources
Million dry tons per year
368
998
1366
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1. Introduction
Biomass is already making key energy contributions in the United
States, having supplied nearly 2.9 quadrillion Btu (quad) of energy in
2003. It has surpassed hydropower as the largest domestic source of
renewable energy. Biomass currently supplies over 3 percent of the
total energy consumption in the United States mostly through
industrial heat and steam production by the pulp and paper industry
and electrical generation with forest industry residues and municipal
solid waste (MSW). In addition to the many benefits common to any
renewable energy use, biomass is particularly attractive because it is
the only current renewable source of liquid transportation fuel. This, of
course, makes it an invaluable way to reduce oil imports one of our
nations most pressing energy and security needs. Biomass also has
great potential to provide heat and power to industry and to provide
feedstocks to make a wide range of chemicals and materials or
bioproducts.
The overall mission of the U.S. Department of Energys (DOE) Office of
Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) is to strengthen the
nations energy security, environmental quality, and economic vitality in
public-private partnerships that enhance energy efficiency and
productivity; bring clean, reliable and affordable energy technologies to
the marketplace; and make a difference in the everyday lives of
Americans by enhancing their energy choices and their quality of life.
Consistent with this mission, DOE-EEREs Biomass Program supports a
research agenda to develop biomass feedstock production and
conversion technologies capable of providing for significant fractions of
domestic demands for transportation fuels, electric power, heat,
chemicals and materials.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) through its agencies and
offices has similar goals of reducing foreign oil dependence, improving
the environment through the development of new sources of energy,
increasing the use of agricultural crops and forest resources as
feedstocks for bioenergy and bioproducts, and creating jobs and enhancing income in Americas rural sector.
The Biomass Research and Development Act of 2000 created the Biomass R&D Technical Advisory Committee to
provide advice to the Secretaries of Agriculture and Energy on program priorities and to facilitate cooperation among
various federal and state agencies, and private interests. The Technical Advisory Committee also established a
national vision for bioenergy and biobased products. Included in its vision was the setting of a very challenging goal:
biomass will supply 5 percent of the nations power, 20 percent of its transportation fuels, and 25 percent of its
chemicals by 2030. The goal is equivalent to 30 percent of current petroleum consumption and will require more than
approximately one billion dry tons of biomass feedstock annually a fivefold increase over the current consumption
(DOE, 2003).
The purpose of this report is to assess whether the land resources of the United States have the potential to produce a
sustainable supply of biomass that can displace 30 percent of the countrys current petroleum consumption. This
report does not attempt to outline R&D and policy agendas to attain this goal, nor does it attempt to assess the
economic competitiveness of a billion-ton bioenergy and bioproducts industry, and its potential impacts on the energy,
agriculture (food and feed production), and forestry sectors of the economy. Many of these issues are partially
addressed in the roadmap that accompanied the biomass vision (BTAC, 2002b). The roadmap explores the technical
research, development, and demonstrations needed to achieve advances in biomass systems and outlines the
institutional and policy changes needed to remove the barriers to economically and environmentally sound
Feedstock Resource Vision Goals
Established by the Biomass Research
& Development Technical Advisory
Committee (Source: BTAC, 2002a)
Biopower Biomass consumption in the
industrial sector will increase at an annual
rate of 2% through 2030, increasing from
2.7 quads in 2001 to 3.2 quads in 2010,
3.9 quads in 2020, and 4.8 quads in 2030.
Additionally, biomass consumption in
electric utilities will double every 10 years
through 2030. Combined, biopower will
meet 4% of total industrial and electric
generator energy demand in 2010 and 5%
in 2020.
Biobased Transportation Fuels
Transportation fuels from biomass will
increase significantly from 0.5% of U.S.
transportation fuel consumption in 2001
(0.0147 quad) to 4% of transportation fuel
consumption in 2010 (1.3 quads), 10% in
2020 (4.0 quads), and 20% in 2030.
Biobased Products Production of
chemicals and materials from biobased
products will increase substantially from
approximately 12.5 billion pounds or 5% of
the current production of target U.S.
chemical commodities in 2001, to 12% in
2010, 18% in 2020, and 25% in 2030.
1
19
development of sustainable biomass systems. To provide some perspective, the next section of this resource
assessment report summarizes current biomass consumption and the biomass feedstock resource base. The biomass
feedstock resource base from forests and agricultural lands are then discussed in more detail in the main body of the
report.
2
20
2. The Biomass Feedstock Resource Base
2.1 Land Resources for Biomass Production
The land base of the United States encompasses nearly 2,263 million acres, including the 369 million acres of land in
Alaska and Hawaii. About 33 percent of the land area is classified as forest land, 26 percent as grassland pasture and
range, 20 percent as cropland, 8 percent as special uses (e.g., public facilities), and 13 percent as miscellaneous
uses such as urban areas, swamps, and deserts (Vesterby and Krupa, 2001; Alig et al., 2003). About one-half of this
land has some potential for growing biomass. This percentage is nearly 60 percent without Alaska and Hawaii.
Currently, slightly more than 75 percent of biomass consumption in the United States (about 142 million dry tons)
comes from forestlands. The remainder (about 48 million dry tons), which includes biobased products, biofuels and
some residue biomass, comes from cropland.
2.2 Biomass Feedstock Consumption
In 2003, biomass contributed nearly 2.9 quadrillion BTU (quad) to the nations energy supply, nearly 3 percent of total
U.S. energy consumption of about 98 quads (EIA, 2004a). At 47 percent of total renewable energy consumption,
biomass is the single largest renewable energy resource, recently surpassing hydropower (Figure 2). More than 50 percent
Petroleum, 39%
Nuclear, 8%
Natural gas, 24%
Coal, 23%
Renewable energy,
6%
Wi nd, 2%
Geothermal , 5%
Hydroel ectri c, 45%
Bi omass, 47%
Sol ar, 1%
Figure 2: Summary of biomass resource consumption

Biomass Consumption

Million dry tons/year

Forest products industry
Wood residues
Pulping liquors
Urban wood and food & other process residues
Fuelwood (residential/commercial & electric utilities)
Biofuels
Bioproducts





44
52
35
35
18
6




Total 190

Forestlands and agricultural lands contribute 190 million dry tons of biomass - 3% of America's current energy consumption.
Source: EIA, 2004a & b
3
21
of this biomass comes from wood residues and pulping liquors
generated by the forest products industry. Currently, biomass
accounts for approximately
13 percent of renewably generated electricity,
nearly all (97 percent) the industrial renewable energy
use,
nearly all the renewable energy consumption in the
residential and commercial sectors (84 percent and 90
percent, respectively), and
2.5 percent of transport fuel use.
A relatively significant amount of biomass (~6 to 9 million dry tons)
is also currently used in the production of a variety of industrial
and consumer bioproducts that directly displace petroleum-based
feedstocks (Energetics, 2003). The total annual consumption of
biomass feedstock for bioenergy and bioproducts together
currently approaches 190 million dry tons (Figure 3).
2.3 Composition of the Current Resource Base
The biomass resource base is composed of a wide variety of
forestry and agricultural resources, industrial processing residues,
and municipal solid and urban wood residues (Figure 3). The forest
resources include residues produced during the harvesting of
forest products, fuelwood extracted from forestlands, residues
generated at primary forest product processing mills, and forest
resources that could become available through initiatives to
reduce fire hazards and improve forest health. The agricultural
resources include grains used for biofuels production, animal
manures and residues, and crop residues derived primarily from
corn and small grains (e.g., wheat straw). A variety of regionally
significant crops, such as cotton, sugarcane, rice, and fruit and nut
orchards can also be a source of crop residues. Municipal and
urban wood residues are widely available and include a variety of
materials yard and tree trimmings, land-clearing wood residues,
wooden pallets, packaging materials, and construction and
demolition debris.
The remainder of this report addresses the potential availability of
biomass feedstock projected over a long term roughly around mid-21
st
century when large-scale bioenergy and
biorefinery industries are likely to exist. The report emphasizes primary sources of forest- and agriculture-derived
biomass such as logging residues, fuel treatment thinnings, crop residues, and perennially grown grasses and woody
crops. These primary sources have the greatest potential to supply large, sustainable quantities of biomass. While the
primary sources are emphasized, secondary and tertiary (or residue) sources of biomass are also addressed in the
report.
The amount of forest-derived biomass is based on an analysis of extant resources and trends in the demand for forest
products. The biomass resource potential from agricultural land is based on creating scenarios that extrapolate from
current agriculture and research and development trends. While the forestland area is much larger, agricultural land
has a greater biomass resource potential due to a much higher level of management intensity. Forestlands, especially
those held publicly, will always be managed less intensively than agricultural lands because forests are expected to
provide multiple-use benefits including wildlife habitat, recreation, and ecological and environmental services. By
contrast, active cropland and, to a lesser extent, idle cropland and cropland pasture are intensively managed, with
crops and management practices changing on a year-to-year basis and land moving in and out of active production.
Forest Resources
Primar Primar Primar Primar Primary yy yy
Logging residues from conventional harvest
operations and residues from forest
management and land clearing operations
Removal of excess biomass (fuel
treatments) from timberlands and other
forestlands
Fuelwood extracted from forestlands
Secondar Secondar Secondar Secondar Secondary yy yy
Primary wood processing mill residues
Secondary wood processing mill residues
Pulping liquors (black liquor)
T TT TTer er er er ertiar tiar tiar tiar tiary yy yy
Urban wood residues construction and
demolition debris, tree trimmings, packaging
wastes and consumer durables
Agricultural Resources
Primar Primar Primar Primar Primary yy yy
Crop residues from major crops corn
stover, small grain straw, and others
Grains (corn and soybeans) used for
ethanol, biodiesel, and bioproducts
Perennial grasses
Perennial woody crops
Secondar Secondar Secondar Secondar Secondary yy yy
Animal manures
Food/feed processing residues
T TT TTer er er er ertiar tiar tiar tiar tiary yy yy
MSW and post-consumer residues and
landfill gases
The resource base includes a wide range of
primary resources, and secondary and tertiary
residues. This report emphasizes primary
resources.
Figure 3: The biomass resource base
4
22
3. Forest-Derived Biomass Resource Assessment
3.1 Forestland Resource Base
The total forestland in the United States is approximately 749 million acres about one-third of the nations total land
area. Most of this land is owned by private individuals or by the forest industry (Figure 4). Two-thirds of the forestland
(504 million acres) is classified as timberland which, according to the Forest Service, is land capable of growing more
than 20 ft
3
per acre of wood annually (Smith et al., 2004). Although timberland is not legally reserved from harvesting,
much of it is inaccessible or inoperable by forestry equipment. In addition, there are 168 million acres of forestland
that the Forest Service classifies as other. This other forestland is generally incapable of growing 20 ft
3
per acre of
wood annually. The lower productivity is due to a variety of factors or site conditions that adversely affect tree growth
(e.g., poor soils, lack of moisture, high elevation, and rockiness). As a result, this land tends to be used for livestock
grazing and extraction of some non-industrial wood products. The remaining 77 million acres of forestland are
reserved from harvesting and are intended for a variety of non-timber uses, such as parks and wilderness.
The total forestland base considered for this resource analysis includes the 504 million acres of timberland and the
168 million acres of other forestland. The timberland acreage is the source of nearly all current forest-derived
bioenergy consumption and the source of most of the potential. The other forestland is included because it has
accumulated excess biomass that poses wildland fire risks and hazards. Much of this excess biomass is not suitable
for conventional wood products but could be used for a variety of bioenergy and biobased product uses.
Figure 4: Ownership break-up of U.S. forestland by region
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Public owner ship Indust r ial owner ship Pr ivat e owner ship
Of the 504 million acres of U.S. timberland, about 29% is publicly owned, 13% is owned by the forest industry, and the
remaining 58% is privately owned.
Timberland ownership varies considerably among regions of the country. The East United States tends to be dominated by
private ownership and the West by public land ownership.
Source: Alig et al., 2003
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3.2 Forest Resources
The processing of harvested forest products, such as sawlogs and pulpwood, generates
significant quantities of mill residues and pulping liquors. These secondary forest
residues constitute the majority of biomass in use today (Figure 3). Secondary residues
generated in the processing of forest products account for 50 percent of current
biomass energy consumption. These materials are used by the forest products industry
to manage residue streams, produce energy, and recover important chemicals.
Fuelwood extracted from forestlands for residential and commercial use and electric
utility use accounts for about 35 million dry tons of current consumption. In total, the
amount of harvested wood products from timberlands in the United States is less than
the annual forest growth and considerably less than the total forest inventory (Figure 5),
suggesting substantial scope for expanding biomass resource base from forestlands.
In addition to these existing uses, forestlands have considerable potential to provide biomass from two primary
sources:
residues associated with the harvesting and management of commercial timberlands for the extraction of
sawlogs, pulpwood, veneer logs, and other conventional products; and
currently non-merchantable biomass associated with the standing forest inventory.
This latter source is more difficult to define, but generally would include rough and rotten wood not suitable for
conventional forest products and excess quantities of smaller-diameter trees in overstocked forests. A large amount of
this forest material has been identified by the Forest Service as needing to be removed to improve forest health and to
reduce fire hazard risks (USDA-FS, 2003; Miles, 2004).
These two categories of forest resources constitute what is defined as the primary source of forest residue biomass in
addition to the fuelwood that is extracted for space heating applications in the residential and commercial sectors and
Figure 5: Projections of timber removals, growth, and inventory
Removals from the forest inventory are a small fraction of the total standing inventory. Current removals are also less than
net annual forest growth.
Forest inventories are projected to increase relative to removals despite a loss of about 3% (23 million acres) of U.S.
forestland by the year 2050. The projected loss is expected as a result of land conversion to urban and developed uses
driven primarily by population and income growth (Alig et al., 2003).
0
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Removal s Net annual growth Inventory
Source: Haynes, 2003
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for some feedstocks by electric utilities. Perennial woody crops (also referred to as short-rotation woody crops) are also
a potential primary biomass resource. Because these woody crops would be grown on agricultural lands, they are
discussed in the agricultural resources section that follows (Section 4.0).
There is also a relatively large tertiary, or residue, source of forest biomass in the form of urban wood residues a
generic category that includes yard trimmings, packaging residues, discarded durable products, and construction and
demolition debris.
All of these forest resources can contribute an additional 226 million dry tons to the current forest biomass
consumption (approximately 142 million dry tons) an amount still only a small fraction of the total biomass
timberlands inventory of more than 20 billion dry tons (Figure 6). Specifically, these forest resources include the
following:
The recovered residues generated by traditional logging activities and residues generated from forest
cultural operations or clearing of timberlands. Currently, about 67 million dry tons of residues are generated
annually from these activities (Smith et al., 2004; USDA-FS, 2004a). About 41 million dry tons of this biomass
material is potentially available for bioenergy and biobased products after consideration of equipment recovery
limitations (Tables A.1 to A.3, Appendix A).
The recovered residues generated from fuel treatment operations on timberland and other forestland. Well
over 8 billion dry tons of biomass has been identified for fuel treatment removal (Miles, 2004). The amount of
this biomass potentially available for bioenergy and biobased product uses is estimated at 60 million dry tons
annually. This estimate takes into consideration factors affecting forest access, residue recovery, and the
merchandizing of the recoverable biomass into higher-value fractions (conventional wood products) and lower-
value fractions (the biomass suitable for bioenergy and biobased product uses) (Tables A.5 to A.7, Appendix A).
The fraction that could be available for bioenergy and biobased products is less than 1 percent of the total size
of the fuel treatment biomass resource.
The direct conversion of roundwood to energy (fuelwood) in the residential, commercial, and electric utility
sectors. Thirty-five million dry tons of biomass is currently extracted by the residential and commercial sectors
and by the electric power sector. Most of the fuelwood used by the residential and commercial sectors is used
for space- and process-heating applications.
Forest products industry residues and urban wood residues. Utilization of unused residues generated by the
forest products industry (8 million dry tons); urban wood residues discarded from construction and demolition
activities (20 million dry tons); and residues from the disposal of tree trimmings, packaging residues, and
wood-based consumer durables (8 million dry tons) can annually provide 36 million dry tons to the current 108
million dry tons currently used.
Forest growth and increase in the demand for forest products. In the long term, a continuation of current
trends in the demand and supply of forest products could increase the potential contribution of forest biomass
by another 89 million dry tons annually. The additional 89 million dry tons result from a combination of
sources and changing circumstances. An increase in the harvest of traditional forest products will create
additional logging residues, and more efficient equipment will allow the recovery of a greater fraction of the
logging residue. However, this increase will be offset somewhat by more efficient logging practices that will
generate less wood residue per unit volume of the harvested forest products (Haynes, 2003). Demand growth
for conventional forest products will create additional mill residue, and pulping liquor and urban wood
residues. However, the rate of increase in these secondary and tertiary forest residue sources will be tempered
by product substitution, recycling and reuse, and more efficient manufacturing processes.
A summary of the amounts of biomass available annually and on a sustainable basis from forest resources is
summarized in Figure 7. The approximate total quantity is 368 million dry tons annually. As noted, this includes about
142 million dry tons of biomass currently being used primarily by the forest products industry, as well as the 89 million
dry tons that could result annually from a continuation of demand and supply trends in the forest products industry.
7
25
The merchantable wood or the conventional forest products component includes the boles and sound dead wood.
The forest residue fraction suitable for bioenergy and biobased products includes the tops and some fraction of
saplings considered to be overstocked.
The total forest residue resource is about 6.7 billion dry tons.
Figure 6: Total timberland biomass and forest residue inventory
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Merchantable wood for traditional forest products Forest residues for bioenergy& biobased products
69%
21%
8%
2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Merchantabl e
wood (bol es)
Tops Sapl i ngs Sound dead wood
Figure 7: Estimate of the sustainably recoverable forest biomass
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
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Forest growth
Urban wood residues
Forest products industry wastes
Fuelwood
Fuel treatments (forestlands)
Logging & other residue
8
26
3.3 Increasing Biomass Resources from Forests
3.3.1 Logging Residues and Other Removals from the Forest Inventory
A recent analysis shows that the annual removals from the forest
inventory totaled nearly 20.2 billion ft
3
. Of this volume, 78 percent
was for roundwood products, 16 percent was logging residue, and
slightly more than 6 percent was classified as other removals
(Smith et al., 2004). The total annual removals constitute about
2.2 percent of the forest inventory of timberland and are less than
net annual forest growth (Figure 5). The logging residue fraction is
biomass removed from the forest inventory as a direct result of
conventional forest harvesting operations. This biomass material
is largely tree tops and small branches left on site because these
materials are currently uneconomical to recover either for product
or energy uses (Figure 8). The remaining fraction, other removals,
consists of timber cut and is burned in the process of land
conversion or cut as a result of cultural operations such as
precommercial thinnings and timberland clearing.
Data on the total amount of logging residue and other removals
are available from the USDA Forestry Inventory and Analysis (FIA)
programs Timber Product Output (TPO) Database Retrieval System
(USDA-FS, 2004a). This database provides volumetric information
on roundwood products (e.g., sawlogs, pulpwood, veneer logs, and
fuelwood), logging residues, other removals, and mill residues. For
the United States, total logging residue and other removals
currently amount to nearly 67 million dry tons annually: 49 million
dry tons of logging residue and 18 million dry tons of other
removal residue (Table A.1, Appendix A).
Not all of this resource is potentially available for bioenergy and biobased products (Figure 8). Generally, these
residues tend to be relatively small pieces consisting of tops, limbs, small branches, and leaves. Stokes reported a
wide range of recovery percentages, with an average of about 60 percent potential recovery behind conventional
forest harvesting systems (Stokes, 1992). With newer technology, it is estimated that the current recovery is about 65
percent. Other removals, especially from land-clearing operations, usually produce different forms of residues and are
not generally as feasible or as economical to recover. It is expected that only half of the residues from other removals
can be recovered. Of course, not all of this material should be recovered. Some portion of this material, especially the
leaves and parts of tree crown mass, should be left on site to replenish nutrients and maintain soil productivity.
Since many forest operations involve the construction of roads that provide only temporary access to the forest, it is
assumed that these residues are removed at the same time as the harvest or land clearing operations that generate
the residues. Limiting the recoverability of logging and other removal residue reduces the size of this forest resource
from about 67 million to 41 million dry tons (Tables A.2 and A.3, Appendix A). About three-fourths of this material
would come from the logging residue. Further, because of ownership patterns most of the logging residue and nearly
all residues from other sources (e.g., land clearing operations) would come from privately owned land (Figure 9).
3.3.2 Forest Residues from Fuel Treatment Thinning
Vast areas of U.S. forestland are overstocked with relatively large amounts of woody materials. This excess material has
built up over years as a result of forest growth and alterations in natural fire cycles. Over the last ten years, federal
agencies have spent more than $8.2 billion fighting forest fires, which have consumed over 49 million acres (Figure 10).
The cost of fighting fires does not include the costs of personal property losses, ecological damage, loss of valuable
forest products, or the loss of human life. The Forest Service and other land management agencies are currently addressing
the issue of hazardous fuel buildups and looking at ways to restore ecosystems to more fire-adaptive conditions. The
removal of excess woody material would also improve forest health and productivity (Graham, et al., McCaffrey, and Jain,
2004).
Forest Inventory and Analysis
The Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program of
the Forest Service is the nations forest census and
has been in continuous operation since 1930 under
various names (Forest Survey, Forest Inventory and
Analysis). Its mission is to make and keep current a
comprehensive inventory and analysis of the
present and prospective conditions of and
requirements for the renewable resources of the
forest and rangelands of the United States. FIA
reports on status and trends in forest areas and
locations; on the species, size, and health of trees;
on total tree growth, mortality, and removals by
harvest; on wood production and utilization rates by
various products; and on forest land ownership. FIA
is the only program which provides consistent,
credible, and periodic forest data for all forest lands
(public and private) within the United States. FIA
covers all U.S. forestlands, including Alaska, Hawaii,
Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the U.S.
Pacific territories. The FIA program is managed by
the R&D organization within the USDA Forest
Service in cooperation with state and private forestry
and national forest systems. More information can
be found at http://www.fia.fs.fed.us/. This analysis
uses data from the FIA databases.
9
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In August 2000, the National Fire
Plan was developed to help respond
to severe wildland fires and their
impacts on local communities while
ensuring sufficient firefighting
capacity for future fires. The
National Fire Plan specifically
addresses firefighting capabilities,
forest rehabilitation, hazardous
fuels reduction, community
assistance, and accountability.
Recently, the Healthy Forest
Restoration Act (HFRA) of 2003 was
enacted to encourage the removal
of hazardous fuels and utilization
of the material, and protect, restore
and enhance forest ecosystem
components. HFRA is also intended
to support R&D to overcome both
technical and market barriers to
greater utilization of this resource
for bioenergy and other commercial
uses from both public and private
lands. Removing excess woody
material has the potential to make
available relatively large volumes of
forest residues and small-diameter
trees for bioenergy and biobased
product purposes.
The Forest Service has identified
timberland and other forestland
areas that have tree volumes in
excess of prescribed or
recommended stocking densities
that require some form of
treatment or thinning operation to
reduce fire risks and hazards, and
are in close proximity to people and
infrastructure (USDA-FS, 2003b).
For timberlands, this was
accomplished using the Fuel
Treatment Evaluator or FTE (USDA-
FS, 2004c; Miles, 2004), an
assessment tool developed to
identify, evaluate, and prioritize fuel
treatment oppor tunities and
facilitate the implementation of
HFRA on all timberland areas.
The FTE uses a stand density
index approach to identify stands
that are minimally fully stocked.
Stands that exceed this threshold
are identified as potential
candidates for thinning
Removals from
growing stock
Sawlog portion
Foliage
Stump
Unmerchantable stem,
branches, cull, saplings
Upper-stem portion
Removals from
non-growing stock
Excluded from both
growing stock and
non-growing stock
Inventory Tree Utilized Tree
Stump
Height (1-foot)
Growing-stock Top
(4-inch)
Growing-stock
volume (cu.ft.)
Utilized Stump
(variable)
Utilized Top
(variable)
Utilized
Product
Volume
Sawtimber
volume (bd.ft.)
Sawtimber
(9 or 11-inch)
Sawlogs,
Veneer Logs,
and Other
Products
Pulpwood,
Fuelwood,
and Other
Products
Residual
Volume
Figure 8: Forest utilization relationships
Logging residue includes the unmerchantable tops and small branches.
Source: Northeastern Forest Inventory & Analysis Program
Figure 9: Logging and other removal residues
41 million dry tons of logging and other removal residue is currently available annually for recovery.
Most of this resource would come from privately owned timberland
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treatment. Treatable land areas are then sorted into fire regime condition classes to measure the extent a given area
has departed from natural wildfire conditions. The condition classes range from minimally altered areas to areas that
are significantly altered from historical norms and pose significant fire risks due to the heavy fuel loadings.
The FTE program requires individual tree data. Because this information was not collected for all other forestland
areas prior to 1998, Forest Service personnel implemented FTE procedures manually for other forestland areas where
individual tree data were available. The results for these areas were then extrapolated to similar areas, based on
forest type and ecoregion, where individual tree data were not available. Since 1998, the FIA program has been
collecting individual tree data on all forestland nationwide.
The FTE identified nationwide about 7.8 billion dry tons of treatable biomass on timberland and another 0.6 billion dry
tons of treatable biomass on other forestland (Figure 11; Table A.5, Appendix A). Only a fraction of this approximately
8.4 billion dry tons is considered potentially available for bioenergy and biobased products on a sustainable annual
basis. Many factors reduce the size of this primary biomass resource (USDA-FS, 2003).
The first of these limiting factors is accessibility to the material from the standpoint of having roads to transport the
material and operate logging/collection systems (Table A.6, Appendix A). This is rarely a technology-limited factor since
there is equipment for nearly any type of terrain and for removing wood a long distance, even without roads (e.g., via
helicopters, two-stage hauling, or long-distance cableways). However, there are usually economic and political
constraints that inhibit working in roadless areas and more difficult terrain. Estimates of operational accessibility
assume conventional types of operations by limiting the areas for consideration to roaded forestland. About 60
percent of the North American temperate forest is considered accessible (not reserved or high-elevation and within 15
miles of major transportation infrastructure) (FAO, 2001). The Forest Services final environmental impact statement
for roadless area conservation indicates that about 65 percent of Forest Service acreage falls within roaded or non-
restricted designations (USDA-FS, 2004b). Road density is much higher in the eastern United States, and in most
cases, the topography is more accessible.
Figure 10: Fire suppression cost and acres burned
On average, nearly 5 million acres have been burned each year over the last 10 years.
Fire suppression costs average nearly $170 per acre burned.
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Operational accessibility is further limited by the need to avoid adverse impacts to soil
and water. Steep slopes, sensitive sites, regeneration difficulty, or lack of adequate
resource information may exclude an area from operational treatments. A summary of
national forest land management plans from 1995 indicated about 60 percent of the
western national forest timberland base to be suitable for timber production
operations (Timko, 2003). This would be a conservative estimate for other landowners
as well, and an even more conservative estimate for eastern U.S. timberlands.
A more significant restriction is economic feasibility. Operating in steep terrain, in
unroaded areas, or with very low-impact equipment is expensive. The value of the biomass (in its broad sense,
meaning a combination of product value and treatment value) has to be weighed against the cost of removing the
material. For example, May and LeDoux (1992) compared FIA data for hardwood inventory with economic modeling of
the cost of harvest and concluded that only 40 percent of the inventory volume in Tennessee was economically
available. Biomass, with a lower product value, would be even less available if the biomass has to cover the entire
cost of the operation. If the biomass were to be produced as part of an integrated operation, it would be at most 40
percent available in the eastern hardwood example. The primary economic factor is the cost of transportation to
processing mills.
The recoverability (i.e., the fraction of standing biomass removed offsite) of wood for bioenergy and biobased products
is a function of tree form, technology, and timing of the removal of the biomass from the forests. In most cases,
merchantable wood is removed, and the forest residues in the form of limbs and tops, and small non-merchantable
trees remain scattered across the harvest area. This practice reduces recoverability when the biomass is removed
in a second pass. However, when all biomass is harvested and processed using an integrated system, recovery is
usually greatly improved, even greater than 90 percent. For example, a study by Stokes and Watson (1991) found that
94 percent of the standing biomass could be recovered when using a system to recover multiple products if the
biomass from in-woods processing was actually utilized for bioenergy.
Figure 11: Total treatable biomass resource on timberlands and other forestlands
About 8.4 billion dry tons of treatable biomass is potentially available for bioenergy and biobased products.
1849
147
770
158
5175
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0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Million dry tons
National forests
Other public lands
Private lands
Other forestlands
Timberland
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There is a concern about removal of large quantities of biomass from stands because of reduced long-term site
productivity and loss of diversity and habitat associated with down-wood debris. Although the consequences are very
site-specific, most negative impacts can be eliminated or minimized by leaving leaves, needles, and a portion of the
woody biomass on site (Burger 2002).
The 8.4 billion dry tons of treatable biomass that is potentially available for bioenergy and biobased products was
reduced by the following factors (Table A.6, Appendix A):
To allay any concerns about site impacts, recovered material using an integrated system is limited to 85
percent.
Only 60 percent of the identified treatable areas are assumed to be accessible.
Fuel treatment material is recovered on a 30-year cycle before any sites are re-entered.
Harvested fuel treatment biomass is allocated into two utilization groups: (1) merchantable trees suitable for
conventional or higher-value forest products as well as rotten trees, brush and understory, small saplings, and
polewood trees; (2) the residues (e.g., tops, limbs, and branches) from the harvested larger trees suitable for
bioenergy and biobased product uses. The conventional forest products fraction assumed is 70 percent, and
the residue or bioenergy and biobased product fraction is 30 percent (USDA-FS, 2003).
The combination of these factors significantly reduces the amount of fuel treatment biomass that can be sustainably
removed on an annual basis. About 49 million dry tons can potentially be removed annually from timberlands, and
about 11 million dry tons can be removed annually from other forestlands (Figure 12; Table A.7, Appendix A). Most of
the fuel treatment biomass from timberlands would come from privately owned lands; slightly less than 20 percent of
the material would come from national forests. In contrast, proportionately more of the fuel treatment biomass
allocated to bioenergy and biobased products on other forestland land would come from publicly held lands. Most of
Figure 12: Fuel treatments on timberland and other forestland
About 60 million dry tons can be removed from timberlands and other forestlands for fuel treatments.
9.4
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these lands are located in the western regions of the country. The 60 million dry tons of fuel treatment biomass
assumes that a relatively large percentage (70 percent) goes to higher-valued products. If feedstock prices for
biomass were to increase relative to conventional forest products, the amount of biomass available for bioenergy and
biobased products could increase substantially.
3.3.3 Forest Products Industry Processing Residues
3.3.3.1 Primary Wood Processing Mills
The Forest Service classifies primary mill residues into three categories bark, coarse
residues (chunks and slabs), and fine residues (shavings and sawdust). In each of
these categories, residues are further segmented into hardwoods and softwoods. Data
on residue quantities are reported at any user-specified spatial scale, ranging from
data of individual counties to state and national totals. Primary mill residues are
desirable for energy and other purposes because they tend to be clean, uniform, and
concentrated and have a low moisture content (< 20 percent). These desirable physical
properties, however, mean that nearly all of these materials are currently used as
inputs in the manufacture of products or as boiler fuel. Very little of this resource is
currently unused. According to Forest Service estimates, about 80 percent of bark is used as fuel and about 18
percent is used in low-value products such as mulch (USDA-FS, 2004a). For coarse residues, about 85 percent is
used in the manufacture of fiber products and about 13 percent is used for fuel. About 55 percent of the fine residues
are used as fuel and 42 percent used in products.
Primary timber processing mills (facilities that convert roundwood into products such as lumber, plywood, and wood
pulp) produced 91 million dry tons of residues in the form of bark, sawmill slabs and edgings, sawdust, and peeler log
cores in 2002 (USDA-FS, 2004a). Nearly all of this material is recovered or burned, leaving slightly less than 2 million
dry tons available for other bioenergy and biobased product uses (Table A.8, Appendix A).
3.3.3.2 Secondary Wood Processing Mills
Residues are also generated at secondary processing facilities mills utilizing primary mill products. Examples of
secondary wood processing mill products include millwork, containers and pallets, buildings and mobile homes,
furniture, flooring, and paper and paper products. Since these industries use an already processed product, they
generate smaller quantities of residues. In total, the secondary mill residue resource is considerably smaller than the
primary mill resource (Rooney, 1998; McKeever, 1998). The types of residues generated at secondary mills include
sawdust and sander dust, wood chips and shavings, board and cut-offs, and miscellaneous scrap wood.
At the larger secondary mills, most of the residue produced is used on site to meet
energy needs (such as heat for drying operations) or is recycled into other products.
This is in contrast to practices at the smaller mills where much of the residue
material goes unused (Bugelin and Young, 2002). The recovery of residue at smaller
mills is more constrained because it may be generated seasonally and may be more
dispersed.
Neither the Forest Service nor any other federal agency systematically collects data
on secondary mill residue. One of the few estimates of the amount of secondary mill
residue available is provided by Fehrs (1999). He estimates that 15.6 million dry tons
is generated annually, with about 40 percent of this potentially available and
recoverable. The remaining fraction is used to make higher-valued products and is
not available (Table A.8, Appendix A).
14
32
3.3.3.3 Pulp and Paper Mills
In the manufacture of paper products, wood is converted into fiber using a variety of chemical and mechanical pulping
process technologies. Kraft (or sulfate) pulping is the most common processing technology, accounting for over 80
percent of all U.S.-produced pulp. In Kraft pulping, about half the wood is converted into fiber. The other half becomes
black liquor, a by-product containing unutilized wood fiber and valuable chemicals.
Pulp and paper facilities combust black liquor in recovery boilers to produce energy (i.e., steam), and, more
importantly, to recover the valuable chemicals present in the liquor. The amount of black liquor generated in the pulp
and paper industry is the equivalent of 52 million dry tons of biomass (Table A.8, Appendix A). Because the amount of
black liquor generated is insufficient to meet all mill needs, recovery boilers are usually supplemented with fossil and
wood residuefired boilers. The pulp and paper industry utilizes enough black liquor, bark, and other wood residues to
meet nearly 60 percent of its energy requirements. Currently, the forest products industry along with DOE are looking
at black liquor gasification to convert pulping liquors and other biomass into gases that can be combusted much
more efficiently.
3.3.4 Urban Wood Residues
There are two principal sources of urban wood residues: MSW and construction and demolition debris. MSW consists
of a variety of items ranging from organic food scraps to discarded furniture and appliances. In 2001, nearly 230
million tons of MSW was generated (EPA, 2003). Wood and yard and tree trimmings are the two sources within this
residue stream that are potentially recoverable for bioenergy and biobased product applications. The wood
component includes discarded furniture, pallets, containers, packaging materials, lumber scraps (other than new
construction and demolition), and wood residuals from manufacturing. McKeever (2004) estimates the total wood
component of the MSW stream at slightly more than 13 million dry tons (Table A.9, Appendix A). About 55 percent of
this material is either recycled as compost,
burned for power production, or unavailable for
recovery because of excessive contamination. In
total, about 6 million dry tons of MSW wood is
potentially available for recovery for bioenergy and
biobased products. The other component of the
MSW stream yard and tree trimmings is
estimated at 9.8 million dry tons. However, only
1.7 million dry tons is considered potentially
available for recovery after accounting for what is
currently used and what is unusable.
The other principal source of urban wood residue
is construction and demolition debris. These
materials are considered separately from MSW
since they come from much different sources.
These debris materials are correlated with
economic activity (e.g., housing starts),
population, demolition activity, and the extent of
recycling and reuse programs. McKeever (2004)
estimates annual generation of construction and
demolition debris at 11.6 and 27.7 million dry
tons, respectively. About 8.6 million dry tons of
construction debris and 11.7 million dry tons of
demolition debris are considered potentially
available for bioenergy and biobased products
(Table A.9, Appendix A). Unlike construction
debris, which tends to be relatively clean and can
be more easily source-separated, demolition
debris is often contaminated, making recovery
much more difficult and expensive.
Additional Potential from Commercial Forest Thinnings in the U.S. South
This analysis does not include wood that is currently merchantable at the lower size
and quality specifications for conventional products, such as pulpwood and small
sawlogs. Depending on local market conditions, i.e., low-price wood and/or high-
price oil markets, this resource could move between these markets and be an
additional potential resource for bioenergy and biobased products. As an example,
the southern U.S. has vast acreages of forests that are being commercially thinned to
improve stand quality. Most of the wood goes to pulpwood, while some is used to
make lumber and composite boards. It is projected that approximately 8 million dry
tons could be available annually from such thinnings in the South.
Notes:
Volumes are merchantable bole wood to a 4-inch top, inside bark. Residues from
thinning, including tops and small-diameter trees are already accounted for in other
sections of this report. For pine, it was assumed that 50% of the output would be
pulpwood and that this material could possibly be used for energy (Clark and Shiver
2005). For the hardwood, 70% of the volumes were assumed to be the potentially
available for bioenergy and biobased products.
Source: Mills (2005)
Forest Stand Type
Planted pine
Natural pine
Oak-Pine
Lowland Hardwood
Upland Hardwood
Total
Million Dry Tons
6.7
1.1
<0.01
0.1
<0.001
7.9
15
33
All these sources of urban wood residue total 28 million dry tons. As noted by McKeever (1998), many factors affect
the availability of urban wood residues, such as size and condition of the material, extent of commingling with other
materials, contamination, location and concentration, and, of course, costs associated with acquisition, transport,
and processing.
3.3.5 Forest Growth and Increase in the Demand for Forest Products
The Fifth Resources Planning Act Timber Assessment projects the continued
expansion of the standing forest inventory despite the estimated conversion of about
23 million acres of timberland into more developed uses (Haynes, 2003). The size of
the standing forest inventory will increase because annual forest growth will continue
to exceed annual harvests and other removals from the inventory. The forest products
industry will continue to become more efficient in the way it harvests and processes
wood products. The demand for forest products are also projected to increase.
However, the increase will be less than historical growth owing to a general declining
trend in the use of paper and paperboard products relative to GNP and the relatively
stable forecast of housing starts (Haynes, 2003). The increase in the consumption of
forest products will be met by an increase in timber harvests; an increase in log, chip,
and product imports; and an increase in the use of recovered paper. Further,
consumers will become more efficient in the use of wood products by generating
fewer wood residues and increasing recycling rates.
These changes and trends will affect the availability of forest residues for bioenergy and biobased products. An overall
increase in the amount of biomass available due to changes in the demand and supply of forest products will increase
the availability and use of forest residues by about 89 million dry tons annually by mid-21
st
century. Specifically, the
availability of logging and other removal residues could increase by about 23 million dry tons over the current annual
resource estimate of 41 million dry tons. Fuelwood harvested for space- and process-heat applications could increase
by another 16 million dry tons over current levels. Wood residues and pulping liquors generated by the forest products
industry could increase by about 16 and 22 million dry tons, respectively. And, the amount of urban wood waste
generated could increase by 11 million dry tons over currently available amounts.
16
34
3.4 Forest Resources Summary
Biomass derived from forestlands currently contributes about 142 million dry tons to the total annual consumption in
the United Sates of 190 million dry tons. Based on the assumptions and conditions outlined in this analysis, the
amount of forestland-derived biomass that can be sustainably produced is approximately 368 million dry tons annually
more than 2.5 times the current consumption. The distribution of this resource potential is summarized in Figure
13. This estimate includes the current annual consumption of 35 million dry tons of fuelwood extracted from
forestland for residential, commercial and electric utility purposes, 96 million dry tons of residues generated and used
by the forest products industry, and 11 million dry tons of urban wood residue. As discussed previously, there are
relatively large amounts of forest residue produced by logging and land clearing operations that goes uncollected (41
million dry tons per year) and significant quantities of forest residues that can be collected from fuel treatments to
reduce fire hazards (60 million dry tons per year). Additionally, there are some unutilized residues from wood
processing mills and unutilized urban wood. These sources total about 36 million dry tons annually. About 48 percent
of these resources are derived directly from forestlands (primary resources). About 39 percent are secondary sources
of biomass from the forest products industry. The remaining fraction would come from tertiary or collectively from a
variety of urban sources.
17
Figure 13: Summary of potentially available forest resources
13% 5% 13% 3% 14% 19% 20% 13%
32
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35
4. Agriculture-Derived Biomass Resources
4.1 Agricultural Land Resource Base
Agriculture is the third largest single use of land in the United States. In 1997, the year of the most recent complete
land inventory, agricultural land totaled some 455 million acres 349 million acres of land in active use to grow
crops, 39 million acres of idle cropland (including land enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program or CRP), and 67
million acres of cropland used as pasture (Figure 14) (USDA-NRCS, 2003a). The amount of agricultural land actively
used to grow crops has varied from 330 to 380 million acres over the last 30 years. Cropland tends to move in and out
of active production because of soil and weather conditions at planting time, expected crop prices, and the presence
of government programs. Some cropland is also permanently converted to other nonagricultural uses. Between 1997
and 2001, seven million acres of active cropland were lost to other uses (USDA-NRCS 2003a).
The agricultural land base considered for this resource analysis includes 342 million acres of active cropland, 39
million acres of idle cropland, and 67 million acres of cropland used as pasture (448 million acres total). All cropland
acres are assumed to be potential contributors to agriculturally derived biomass feedstocks. Permanent pasture land
might be another potential resource, but it is not considered in this analysis.
Figure 14: Summary of cropland uses, idle cropland, and cropland
pasture in the contiguous United States
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18
36
4.2 Agricultural Resources
Grains and oilseeds are the primary feedstocks used to produce most of the ethanol, biodiesel, and bioproducts
consumed today. Food and feed processing residues and tertiary post-consumer residues are also used to generate a
modest amount of electricity. These agriculture-derived biomass resources account for nearly 25 percent of the
current biomass consumption. This amount of biomass, however, is small relative to currently available agricultural
biomass resources and tiny relative to agricultures full potential. With appropriate economic incentives, and improved
cropping practices and technologies, such as higher-yielding plants and more efficient harvest equipment, significant
amounts of agricultural crop residues, and food and feed processing residues could be sustainably produced.
Moreover, the amount of sustainable biomass derived from agricultural land could be increased further by dedicating
some land to the production of perennial grass and woody crops.
U.S. agriculture has changed considerably since the early part of the 20th century (USDA-NASS, 2003a). The key
technological drivers of this change were mechanization and dramatically increased yields of major grain and fiber
crops. Mechanization dramatically reduced the need for horses for horsepower, and consequently oat production (for
animal food) greatly declined. In the same time frame, soybean production increased but for different reasons (Figure 15).
Increased crop yields were a direct result of research such as corn and wheat hybridization, and governmental price
support policies. Agriculture also became more productive in the use of inputs to grow crops (Figure 16). A substantial
increase in livestock production, especially cattle and poultry, also occurred.
Driven by a need to reduce erosion, maintain soil structure and nutrients, and build soil carbon levels, agriculture
adopted sounder environmental and conservation practices. For example, no-till cultivation, the most environmentally
friendly production system, is now practiced on more than 62 million acres, and another 50 million acres are part of
another conservation tillage system (CTIC, 2004). Crop rotation is also much more common. In the mid-1990s for
instance, the practice of rotating corn with soybeans increased from nearly half to about two-thirds of the planted corn
acreage.
Figure 15: Harvested acres of oats and soybeans, 1900-2000
Major changes in crop use allocations have occurred over the past 60 years.
Source: USDA-NASS, 2003a
0
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1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
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19
37
Agriculture is expected to continue to change and adapt to new technologies and circumstances. Biotechnology, for
example, is transforming agriculture by making available genetically altered varieties of corn and soybeans. Biotech
hybrids of corn now account for 40 percent of the total planted acreage (National Corn Growers Association, 2004).
The future could also see agriculture becoming a more important supplier of bioenergy and biobased products to the
U.S. economy. The production of ethanol from corn and other grains is projected to continue to grow (USDA-OCE, 2004,
2005). Biodiesel production has also grown significantly and could increase substantially in the future under an EPA
mandate to reduce sulfur in diesel fuel (Stroup, 2004). The demand for new biobased products is also expanding. For
example, innovative carbon-based technologies, such as the development of carbon-annotate fibers, could provide
new markets for biomass.
4.3 Evaluating the Biomass Potential of Agriculture
To assess the potential biomass contribution from agriculture, a number of scenarios were evaluated. These scenarios
include various combinations of changes in the following:
yields of crops grown on active cropland,
crop residue-to-grain or -seed ratios,
annual crop residue collection technology and equipment,
crop tillage practices,
land use change to accommodate perennial crops (i.e., grasses and woody crops),
biofuels (i.e., ethanol and biodiesel), and
secondary processing and other residues.
Crop yields are of particular importance because they affect the amount of residue generated and the amount of land
needed to meet food, feed, and fiber demands.
Figure 16: Agricultural productivity, 1948-1996
Agricultural productivity - a measure of output to input - has increased steadily over the last half century.
Source: USDA-NASS, 2003a
0.0
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20
38
The following three scenarios are summarized in this report:
Scenario 1: current availability of biomass feedstocks from agricultural land;
Scenario 2: biomass availability through a combination of technology changes focused on conventional crops only;
and
Scenario 3: biomass availability through technology changes in both conventional crops and new perennial crops
together with significant land use change.
The types of crop technology changes assumed include yield increases, more efficient harvest technology, changes in
tillage practice, and, for scenario three only, changes in residue to grain ratios. The agricultural biomass resources
considered for each of these scenarios include residues from major crops, grains and oilseeds used for ethanol and
biodiesel production, and residues and waste resources. Switchgrass and hybrid poplars are assumed for perennial
crops, but any fast growing grasses or trees could be used. For the three major crops (corn, wheat, and soybeans), a
comparison among the USDA baseline and Scenarios 2 and 3 is summarized in Table B.1, Appendix B.
4.3.1 Scenario 1: Current Sustainable Availability of Biomass from Agricultural Lands
Current availability is the baseline that summarizes sustainable biomass resources under current crop yields, tillage
practices (20-40 percent no-till for major crops), residue collection technology (~40 percent recovery potential), grain
to ethanol and biodiesel production, and use of secondary and tertiary residues. In sum, the amount of biomass
currently available for bioenergy and bioproducts is about 194 million dry tons annually (Table B.2, Appendix B). This
is about 16 percent of the 1.2 billion dry tons of plant material produced on agricultural land. It includes 113 million
dry tons of crop residues, 15 million dry tons of grain (starch) used for ethanol production, 6 million dry tons of corn
fiber, and 60 million dry tons of animal manures and residues (e.g., MSW and animal fats). The single largest source
of this current potential is corn residues or corn stover (Figure 17; Table B.2, Appendix B), totaling close to 75 million
dry tons.
Figure 17: Current availability of biomass from agricultural lands
The total current availability of biomass from cropland is approximately 194 million dry tons/year.
Slightly more than one-fifth of this biomass is currently used.
Corn stover is a major untapped source of agriculture-derived biomass.
Small grain residues include sorghum, barley, oats, and rice. Other crop residues include cotton, other oil seeds (e.g., sunflower,
peanuts, canola), tobacco, sugar crops, potatoes, beans, miscellaneous root crops, and double crops. Other residues include
secondary agricultural processing residues, MSW, and fats and greases.
75
11
6
21
15
35
31
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Million dry tons per year
Corn stover
Wheat straw
Small grain residues
Other crop residues
Grains to biofuels
Manures
Other residues
21
39
4.3.2 Scenario 2: Technology Change with Conventional Crops Only (No Land Use Change)
Scenario 2 assumes an increase in crop yields for corn by 25-50 percent. Yields of wheat and other small grains,
sorghum, soybeans, rice, and cotton are assumed to increase at rates lower than for corn. The rates of increase of all
crops are the same as those used by USDA-OCE (2004, 2005) in their Baseline Projections (The USDA baseline for
three major crops is summarized in Table B.1, Appendix B.). Acres for each crop are fixed at levels predicted for 2014
by USDA-OCE (2005). Soybeans contribute no crop residue under a moderate yield increase (~ 13 percent) but make
a small contribution with a high yield increase (~23 percent). Collection equipment is assumed to be capable of
recovering as much as 60 percent of residue under the moderate yield increases and 75 percent under the high yield
increases but the actual removal amounts depend on the sustainability requirements. No-till cultivation is assumed to
be practiced on approximately 200 million acres under moderate yield increases and all of active cropland under high
yields. The amount of corn and soybeans available for ethanol, biodiesel or other bioproducts was calculated by first
subtracting amounts needed to meet food requirements plus feed and export requirements. All remaining grain was
assumed to be available for biofuels. This worked out to a more than three-fold increase over 2001 levels under the
moderate yield increase and more than a five-fold increase under the high yield increase. Soy oil used for biodiesel
increases dramatically from the 2001 level under both moderate and high yield increases. Further, about 75 million
dry tons of manure and other secondary and tertiary residues and wastes, and 50 percent of the biomass produced
on CRP lands (17 to 28 million dry tons) are assumed to be available for bioenergy production. Attaining these levels
of crop yield increase and collection will require a continuation of research, deployment of new technologies, and
incentives. Past trends indicate that such increases are certainly doable. This intensive scenario for use of crop
residue results in the annual production of 423 million dry tons per year under moderate yields and 597 million dry
tons under high yields (Figure 18; Tables B.3 and B.4, Appendix B). In this scenario, about two-thirds to three-fourths
of total biomass are from crop residues.
22
Figure 18: Availability of biomass under increased crop yields and technology changes
Total availability of biomass from cropland ranges from 423 to 597 million dry tons per year at crop yield increases of 25% (moderate) and 50% (high) for corn and
various rates of increase for other crops. Moderate and high changes in tillage practices and residue collection technology and equipment are also assumed.
(Quantities shown do not add to 423 and 597 million dry tons due to rounding.)
No changes in the current allocation of cropland are required to attain these levels of biomass.
Small grain residues include sorghum, barley, oats, and rice. Other crop residues include cotton, other oil seeds (e.g., sunflower, peanuts, canola), tobacco, sugar
crops, potatoes, beans, miscellaneous root crops, and double crops. Other residues include secondary agricultural processing residues, MSW, and fats and
greases.
170
256
35
57
15
25
0
0
37
48
28
28
56
97
44
44
40
44
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Million dry tons per year
Moderate yield Increase
High yield increase
Corn stover
Wheat straw
Small grain residues
Soybean residues
Other crop residues
CRP biomass
Grains to biofuels
Manures
Other residues
40
4.3.3 Scenario 3: Technology Change with Perennial Crops And Land Use Change
Scenario 3 assumes the addition of perennial crops to the landscape, land use changes and changes in soybean
varieties, as well as the technology changes assumed under the previous scenario. Soybean varieties are assumed to
transition from an average residue-to-grain ratio of 1.5 to a ratio of 2.0 as current varieties are partially replaced with
varieties that produce 50 to 100 percent more residue but maintain similar grain yields. The land use changes include
the conversion of either 40 or 60 million acres to perennial crop production associated with moderate and high yield
increases, respectively. Woody crops produced for fiber are expanded from 0.1 million acres to 5 million acres, where
they can produce an average annual yield of 8 dry tons per acre. Twenty-five percent of the wood fiber crops are
assumed to be used for bioenergy and the remainder for other, higher-value conventional forest products. Perennial
crops (trees or grasses) grown primarily for bioenergy expand to either 35 million acres at 5 dry tons per acre per year
or to 55 million acres with average yields of 8 dry tons per acre per year. Ninety-three percent of the perennial crops
are assumed available for bioenergy and the remainder for other products. A small fraction of the available biomass
(10 percent) is assumed lost during the harvesting operations. This scenario results in the production of 581 to 998
million dry tons (Figure 19; Tables B.5 and B.6, Appendix B). Crop residues increase even though conventional
cropland is less because of the addition of more soybean residue together with increased yields. The single largest
source of biomass is the crop residue, accounting for nearly 50 percent of the total produced. Perennial crops account
for about 30 to 40 percent depending on the crop yield increase (i.e., moderate or high).
Figure 19: Availability of biomass under increased crop yields, technology changes, and inclusion of perennial crops
Total availability of biomass from cropland, idle cropland, and cropland pasture ranges from 581 to 998 million dry tons per year at crop yield
increases of 25% (moderate) and 50% (high) for corn and various rates for other crops. Changes in tillage practices, residue to grain and seed
ratios, and residue collection technology and equipment are also assumed. (Quantities shown do not add to 581 million dry tons due to rounding.)
The allocation of some active cropland, idle cropland, and cropland pasture to perennial crops is required to attain this level of annual biomass
production.
Small grain residues include sorghum, barley, oats, and rice. Other crop residues include cotton, other oil seeds (e.g., sunflower, peanuts, canola),
tobacco, sugar crops, potatoes, beans, miscellaneous root crops, and double crops. Other residues include secondary agricultural processing
residues, MSW, and fats and greases.
156
377
170
256
35
52
15
25
13
48
36
47
18
18
56
87
44
44
40
44
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Million dry tons per year
Moderate yield increase
High yield increase
Perennial crops
Corn stover
Wheat straw
Small grain residues
Soybeans
Other crop residues
CRP biomass
Grains to biofuels
Manures
Other residues
23
41
4.4 Factors Increasing Biomass Resources from Agriculture
4.4.1 Crop Yields
Corn grain yields have risen dramatically and steadily over the past 35 years
(1965-2000) at an average annual change of 1.7 bushels per acre even while
fertilizer inputs have declined (Figure 20) (Dobermann et al., 2002).
Continuing increases at the level currently used by USDA for projections (1.8
bushels per acre) will result in a 25 percent yield increase (173 bushels per
acre) by 2020 and a 50 percent yield increase (207 bushels per acre) by
2043. This translates to an actual crop yield rate of increase that is less than
the current rate of nearly 1.2 percent per year to about 0.9 percent per year
by 2030 a prediction made by FAO (2003). Crop yields and acreage for
2001 were obtained from published agricultural statistics (USDA-NASSa;
USDA-NRCS, 2003a). Acreage for conventional crops in the future scenarios
are based on the acres projected to be in production in 2014 by USDA-OCE
(2005).
The high yield expectation of 207 bushels per acre is very reasonable (even conservative) given that this yield level
remains well below the projected average corn yield potential of about 300 bushels per acre in both irrigated and
rainfed corn belt areas, where soil moisture is generally not a limiting factor. This is based on corn yield simulation
models developed at the University of Nebraska (Arkebauer et al., 2004). In recent years, record corn yields have been
virtually the same between irrigated and rainfed acreage (Doberman et al. 2003). The adoption of new varieties with
many genetic improvements, including the Bt genetic modification and increases in corn planting density, have been
crucial in achieving these results.
Recent corn selection techniques have optimized genotype/environment interactions leading to increased yield
stability and stress tolerance (e.g., tolerance to higher planting densities) (Tollenaar and Lee, 2002). Research results
24
Figure 20: Average corn yields, 1900-1999
Corn grain yields have increased steadily throughout the latter half of the 20th century.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
B
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s

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Source: USDA-NASS, 2003a
42
and recommendations by Pioneer Hi-Bred Ltd. suggest that increasing the density of corn plantings is a trend that will
continue since it can increase profit in many situations (Paszkiewicz and Butzen, 2003).
Increasing wheat grain yields by 25 to 50 percent is considered doable but probably not in the same time frame as
corn. The most recent estimates from the Wheat Improvement Center in Mexico City (CIMMYT, 2002) show annual
yield increasing by 1.7 percent per year in the United States for 1988-2000, higher than the average yield increase
rate of 1.3 percent observed in the 1977-988 period. However, a concern is that most genetic research on wheat in
the United States currently focuses on developing dwarf varieties (which would reduce residue-to-grain ratios), and
increasing disease resistance rather than yields. Only a small amount of research is focused on improving tall wheat
varieties. The rate of yield increase assumed by USDA for the next 10 years is about 1.3 percent per year, resulting in a
20 percent increase in wheat grain yields by 2020.
The big unknown factor for wheat and other small grains is the effect of biotechnology. A technology being aggressively
pursued that could affect wheat is asexual reproduction (Pollack, 2000). Asexual reproduction would allow seeds to be
exact genetic copies, or clones, of the parent. If commercially successful, this technique would accelerate breeding,
allow genetic adaptation of plants to specific micro-climates, and allow the ability to create and stabilize new genetic
combinations. Major biotechnology and seed companies as well as the USDA, universities, and small private groups
were all actively pursuing research in the late 1990s (GRAIN, 2001). However, according to Doanes Agricultural Report
(February 25, 2005), many research groups are hesitating to pursue biotechnology advancements in wheat due to
declining profit margins, for example, Monsanto Company has shelved its plans to offer herbicide resistant wheat. The
same Doanes report indicated that the National Association of Wheat Growers is supportive of the use of
biotechnology advancements to stay competitive. Wheat Associates is initiating a plan to begin promoting the safety
and benefits of biotech wheat.
Among the plant growth factors that pose barriers to yield increase, soil moisture is the most limiting factor. Thus,
continued selection for stress tolerance, including tolerance to moisture deficits, will be critically important to
achieving a crops potential yield. While climate change could modify yield potential, a review of climate change
impacts on agriculture suggests that the net effects of a doubling of carbon dioxide levels on agriculture may be small
if the agricultural community is adaptive (Adams et al. 1999).
4.4.2 Residue-to-Grain or -Seed Ratios
The ratio of crop residues to grain is a key variable that has a significant effect on estimates of the availability of
biomass. Since grain yields are reported annually, but biomass yields are not, an estimate of the relationship
between the two is necessary for estimating biomass yields. A wide variation in residue-to-grain ratios exists in the
literature. For this analysis, the baseline ratio of crop residues to grain is derived from the Soil Conditioning Index (SCI)
of the USDA National Resource Conservation Service Soil (USDA-NRCS, 2003b). If different ratios are given for the
same crop, the one associated with conditions that represented the largest crop acreage was used.
Clearly, the ratio of residue to grain (or its inverse, the harvest index) does vary within crops from year to year and
according to the time of harvest, variety, and density of planting. Prihar and Stewart (1990) indicate that harvest index
increases with increasing total yields and decreasing crop stresses. This tendency was also shown in experiments in
Minnesota reported by Linden et al. (2000). However, these results contrast with those published by Doberman et al.
(2003), where harvest index was found to decrease slightly under the highest yield conditions in Nebraska experiment
trials. The salient difference is that the highest yield conditions in Nebraska were associated with higher-density
plantings. Tollenar and Lee (2002) report that the corn harvest index has not shown a clear trend in the past seven
decades except where plants are grown at higher densities, in which case it decreases. The lowest harvest index
measured in the Nebraska experiments, even at the highest density, was 0.49 (Yang et al., 2004). In this analysis, it is
assumed that corn stover-to-grain ratios remain at 1:1 on a dry weight basis under all scenarios. It was necessary to
adjust the weights published for crops in agricultural statistics (USDA-NASS, 2003b) to a dry weight based on
assumed moisture content at harvest (Gupta, 1979). Information on moisture contents were found in Hellevang
(1995).
A change in the residue-to-grain ratio is a possible technology change that could occur for any crop. In this
assessment, however, a ratio change was assumed only for soybeans which presently do not contribute to the
removable residue estimates. Most, if not all, soybean residue needs to be left on the ground to meet conservation
25
43
practice requirements. USDA genetic improvement
research in soybeans at Beltsville, Maryland has focused
on developing varieties that have a higher ratio of straw to
beans, grow taller, have improved lodging resistance, have
a better over-winter residue persistence, and are able to
attain these traits without genetic transformation (Figures
21 and 22). Originally the soybean program was geared to
develop larger biomass soybeans for forage production
and resulted in three varieties (Devine and Hatley, 1998a,
1998b, 1998c). A recently released variety for the
southeast, Tara (Devine and McMurtrey, 2004), has the
characteristics of a 1.75 residue-to-grain ratio without
sacrificing expected levels of grain yield. It is evident from
data on the forage soybean varieties that the potential
exists to produce 100 percent more crop residue and thus
provide more soil conservation benefits than the
conventional varieties (Wu et al., 2004). It cannot be
predicted whether farmers will adopt these new varieties,
but clearly the technology will be available. Potentially,
with such varieties soybean acreage could contribute to
the availability of residues for bioenergy and biobased
products.
4.4.3 Residue Collection Technology for Annual Crops
Most residue recovery operations today pick up residue left on
the ground after primary crops have been harvested. Collection
of residues from these crops involves multiple passes of
equipment over fields and results in no more than 40 percent
removal of stover or straw on average. This low recovery amount
is due to a combination of collection equipment limitations,
contour ridge farming, economics, and conservation
requirements. It is possible under some conditions to remove as
much as 60-70 percent of corn stover with currently available
equipment. However, this level of residue collection is
economically or environmentally viable only where land is under
no-till cultivation and crop yields are very high. This analysis
assumes that the harvest technology and the percentage of
cropland under no-till management are increased
simultaneously.
Future residue collection technology with the potential of
collecting up to 75 percent of the residue is envisioned (DOE,
2003). These systems are likely to be single-pass systems that
would reduce costs by collecting the grain and residue together.
Single-pass systems will also address concerns about soil
compaction from multiple pieces of residue collection
equipment, unless the single pass system is heavier than the
current grain harvesters (Wilhelm et al. 2004). Further, one-pass
systems for corn and grain will need to have selective harvesting
capability so that some portions of the residue stream can be
reapplied to the field to meet conservation requirements.
Figure 21: Breeding of new giant soybean cultivars for
forage production.
(Photo by Scott Bauer, USDA, Agricultural Research Service,
Beltsville, Maryland)
26
Figure 22: Soybean residues from large biomass
(top) and conventional soybeans (bottom)
(Source: Wu et al., 2004)
44
4.4.4 Cropland Tillage
No-till planting systems are now used on more than 60 million acres in the United States, surpassing mulch till as the
favored form of conservation tillage (Figure 23) (CTIC, 2004). With the concerted effort by USDA to educate farmers
and conservation advisors, it is anticipated that acres designated for no-till cultivation and other types of conservation
tillage will increase in the future. One example of the USDA effort is the CORE4 Conservation Training Practices Guide
(USDA-NRCS, 1999).
Developing a single national estimate of the amount of residue that must remain on the ground to maintain soil
sustainability for any given set of conditions is a challenge. Residue maintenance requirements (RMRs) are most
properly estimated at the individual field level with models such as RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation),
used together with the SCI (soil conditioning index) tool as described in the National Agronomy Manual (USDA-NRCS,
2002). However, using this approach to provide a national estimate would require actual data from hundreds of
thousands of specific locations. Nelson (2002) developed a methodology for making a national estimate that
reflected the RUSLE/SCI modeling approach in that it considered soils, rainfall, crop and rotation choices, and tillage
choices in determining the amount of residue required to minimize erosion to T (tolerance) levels recommended by
USDA. Nelson is a co-author on the Graham et al., (2004) analysis that produced estimates of residue maintenance
requirements on land with corn as a rotation crop (using 1995 to 2000 data). Walsh (2004) also relied on Nelsons
approach in developing updated estimates of corn and wheat residue. Both the unpublished Graham et al. and Walsh
analysis studies were used to derive national estimates of average RMRs for corn and wheat land.
Estimating national-level RMRs under various scenarios for corn land was done by creating factors using the Graham
et al., (2004) analysis. Thus, the calculation
(Sustainably Available Residue Estimate/Total Residue) / Acres Harvested
gave an average national RMR factor (in lbs or tons/acre) for minimizing erosion on corn land for current till and all no-
till cases. The current-till RMR factor was used in the 2001 base case; the all-no-till RMR factor was used in the land
Figure 23: Crops under no-till cultivation
Source: Conservation Technology Information Center ( www.ctic.purdue.edu )
29.3
15.8
6.7
4.4
2.4
1.7
M
i
l
l
i
o
n

a
c
r
e
s
Soybeans Corn Winter
wheat
Spring
small grains
Cotton Sorghum
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
27
No-till farming for corn
(USDA Photo by: Gene Alexander)
45
changehigh yield scenario; and an RMR factor halfway between was used in the land changemoderate yield scenario.
This resulted in estimation of removal rates of 33 percent, 54 percent, and 68 percent respectively under current tillage
mix, increased no-till and all no-till scenarios. For wheat, a similar development of RMR factors was done using results
from the updated 2004 analysis by Walsh. Estimated sustainable removal rates were 14 percent, 34 percent, and 48
percent respectively. Development of the soybean RMR factors relied on first calculating an average of the residue
maintenance requirements found in the SCIVER25 worksheet from the top five soybean-producing states, adjusting that
value based on the soybean residue equivalency value (to
corn), and finally, further adjusting the value for no-till
conditions for conventional and large biomass soybean (LBS)
varieties based on discussions in 2004 with Jim McMurtrey,
a member of the soybean research team in Beltsville,
Maryland. McMurtrey et al. (in press) found that LBS varieties
provided 40-100 percent more residue cover than
conventional soybeans, not only because of higher biomass
but also because the decomposition of the LBS varieties is
slower. Estimated sustainable removal rates were 0 percent
for conventional soybeans in all scenarios and 0 percent, 7.4
percent, and 30 percent respectively for LBS varieties under
current tillage mix, increased no-till, and all no-till scenarios.
The current goal of soil conservation is not just to manage
for minimizing erosion but also to increase soil carbon
(Puckett, 2003). Practices that enhance soil carbon include
high biomass yields, cover crops, reduced or no tillage,
rotational grazing, and establishment of perennial crops. All practices except grazing also have the potential of
increasing sustainably removable biomass, although the requirements for maintaining or increasing soil carbon may
be higher in some locations than the requirements for meeting the soil loss tolerance (T) levels. With annual crop
production, the largest increases in soil organic matter will result from continuous no-till cultivation. Leaving the root
structure of plants undisturbed is vital to the success of no-till cultivation in increasing soil carbon, in most cases,
more so than leaving crop residues on the surface (USDA-NRCS, 1999). Research results on factors affecting soil
organic matter or soil carbon are varied depending on soil types, rainfall conditions, crop types and varieties, and
tillage methods; thus, work is needed by agronomists and soil scientists to develop recommendations on removal
rates that consider specific site conditions (Wilhelm et al. 2004). Nevertheless, it is safe to say that some residue will
nearly always need to be left to maintain soil moisture and quality (i.e., nutrients and organic matter), limit rainfall and
wind erosion, and maintain or increase soil carbon levels, but the amount that can be taken off sustainably is
expected to increase as crop yields and total residue produced increase.
4.4.5 Allocation of Cropland Acres to Perennial Crops
It is assumed that significant amounts of land could shift to the production of perennial crops if a large market for
bioenergy and biobased products emerges. Studies by de la Torre Ugarte et al. (2003) and McLaughlin et al. (2002)
indicate that this could happen today if the price for energy crops were high enough to attract the interest of farmers.
These authors report that if a farmgate price of about $40 per dry ton were offered to the farmers, perennial grass
crops producing an average of 4.2 dry tons per acre (a level attainable today) would be competitive with the current
crops on about 42 million acres of cropland and CRP land.
The high-yield scenario for perennial crops in this assessment assumes an average crop yield of 8 dry tons per acre,
an amount considered feasible by grass researchers provided there is a concomitant increase in R&D. Current
average annual yields from switchgrass clones tested in small plots over multiple years at twenty-three locations in
the United States range from a low of 4.2 dry tons per acre to a high of 10.2 dry tons per acre, with most locations
having an average between 5.5 and 8 dry tons per acre (McLaughlin and Kszos, 2005). Yields from the best clones
were generally 8 dry tons per acre or higher. The highest observed yield at any location or in any year was 15.4 dry
tons per acre. The best-performing clones were often the same at a majority of the twenty-three sites spread over the
Great Plains, the Midwest, and the South. None of the test plots were irrigated. Assuming an intensive genetic
selection and research program on grasses, the feasibility of attaining average yield of 8 dry tons per acre over
millions of acres is supported by modeling (McLaughlin and Kszos, 2005). For woody crops, annual yields have been
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46
generally 5 dry tons per acre in most locations and are currently achieving more than 8 dry tons per acre in
commercial plantings in the Pacific Northwest. These test data alone suggest that future yields estimated for perennial
crops are well within reason, if not conservative. Yields from small plots are not likely to be representative of average
yields across the millions of acres assumed in the perennial crop scenarios. However, with the genetic variability
existing in switchgrass and woody crops, the potential for continued yield increases and attainment of 8 dry tons per
acre averaged over millions of acres is very high.
The technology change with land use change scenario (Scenario 3, Section 4.3.3) assumes that as many as 60 million
acres of cropland, cropland pasture, and CRP are shifted to perennial crop production, including grass and woody
crops. Forest Service projections of possible expansion of short-rotation woody crop technology were used as the basis
for assuming that 5 million acres are shifted to woody crops (Ince, 2001). It was assumed, however, that 75 percent of
the harvested wood goes to fiber and 25 percent is available for energy. On the remaining 55 million acres, it is
assumed that 93 percent of the perennial crops are used for energy less losses in harvesting operations. Whether the
perennial crops are primarily wood or grass may depend on whether the bioenergy emphasis is on fuels or power.
Figure 24 summarizes the change in land use among the three broad categories of agricultural land (i.e., active
cropland, idle cropland, and cropland pasture) among scenarios under moderate and high crop yield increases. In all
cases, USDA baseline projections for food and feed demands continue to be met.
Figure 24: Summary of the allocation of agricultural land under alternative scenarios
344 37 68
344 37 68
339 27 43 40
319 27 43 60
0 100 200 300 400 500
Million acres
Active cropland Idle land (CRP) Cropland pasture Perennial crops
Scenari o 1
Current land use
allocation
Scenari o 2
Moderate &
high yield change
Scenari o 3
Moderate yield
increase
Scenari o 3
High yield increase
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4.4.6 Grain to Ethanol or bioproducts and Soybeans to Biodiesel
The USDA Office of the Chief Economist projects that under business-as-usual conditions, acreage planted for the
eight major crops grown in the United States will decrease by 1 million acres between 2003 and 2013 but harvested
acres will increase by 9 million acres (USDA-OCE, 2004). This would suggest that fewer crop failures are expected. All
crop use categories increase, with grain to ethanol showing the largest relative increase and exports also significantly
increasing. To create scenarios beyond 2013, world population and crop yield trends published by the United Nations
Food and Agricultural Organization were considered (UN, 2003 and FAO, 2003). Projections suggest that the North
American population will increase by 37 percent between 2001 and 2050 while the world population increase will be
only slightly higher. Thus, in the highest crop yield scenarios, corn required for food in the United States is assumed to
increase by 37 percent over the 2001 value.
The FAO (2003) predicts that export demands from industrial countries
will continue to increase through 2030 but at a slowing rate. The USDA-
OCE (2005) predicts that export demand for corn through 2014 will rise,
primarily because of increasing demand for animal feed. This evaluation
assumes that corn exports rise by another 10 percent in the high corn
yield scenarios. The USDA-OCE (2005) also predicts that exports of wheat
and soybeans will remain level through 2014 because of increasing
foreign competition. The scenarios assume level export demand after
2014 in wheat and soybeans.
The USDA-OCE (2005) projects that demand for corn grain for ethanol will
increase from 714 million bushels in 2001 to 1750 million bushels in
2014 or from 7.5 percent to about 14 percent of total corn grain
production (Table B.1, Appendix B). This evaluation assumes that food,
feed, and export demands are met first and then ethanol (or other
bioproducts) is produced from the remaining grain. The results show that
with a 50 percent increase in corn yield and land at the 2014 level, over
3,950 million bushels of grain would be available for ethanol or
bioproducts. Urbancheck (2001) projected that ethanol use could
increase to 8.8 billion gallons in the future; this amount would require
2,464 million bushels. Thus, significant potential exists for meeting
increased corn grain demand for both ethanol and bioproducts.
The USDA-OCE (2005) projections to 2014 show domestic use of soybeans increasing due to more demand for pork
and poultry, but planted and harvest acres of soybeans are projected to decline slightly because of increasing yields.
Although the USDA-OCE reports do not project soybean use for biodiesel, biodiesel production from soybeans has
already more than doubled from 12.5 million gallons in 2001 to more than 25 million gallons in 2004. Expectations
are that demand will continue to rise. Stroup (2004) noted that a big looming potential for biodiesel is the use of
biodiesel blends for transportation fuel a possibility that could result from a proposed EPA mandate to reduce sulfur
in diesel fuel. This assessment assumes that all soybeans not needed for food, feed, or export could be used to make
biodiesel or other industrial products. The maximum amount available is 297 million bushels under the high-yield, no
perennial crop scenario which could result in 415 million gallons of pure biodiesel. Soybeans available for biodiesel
are reduced to a negative value when 8 million acres of soybeans are assumed to be converted to perennial crops and
food requirement demands are also increased by 37 percent similar to corn. Market conditions would determine
whether reductions would actually occur in the food, feed, export, or fuel components or indeed whether the acreage
reduction would occur in other land uses.
4.4.7 Secondary Processing and Other Residues
The largest potential single source of biomass from food/feed processing and post consumer wastes is animal
manure. Manure can be readily collected from confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs), which continue to increase
in number and size. In the recent past, CAFOs for cattle and hogs have increased slightly while those for poultry
increased considerably.
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48
Data published by USDA on manure production in CAFOs (USDA-ERS, 2001) and studies estimating the amounts of
recoverable nitrogen and phosphorus (Kellog et al., 2000; Gollehon, 2002) were used to determine collectable and
recoverable dry weights of manure. All future scenarios assume some increase in manure collected. One could
assume that all collectable manure is available for bioenergy, however, it was assumed that only the portion in excess
of the amounts that can be applied on-farm without exceeding EPA mandated criteria, is available. Estimates of that
excess amount are also derived by Kellog et al. (2000) and Gollehon (2001). Of course, manure will need to be
handled differently than most other biomass resources. Its use is dependent on development of appropriate
technologies and would be best utilized on farm or very close to the source.
Approximately 20 percent of the corn kernel is not utilized in the production of ethanol and other starch based
products, such as sweeteners and high-fructose corn syrup. It is an excellent near-term biomass resource for
bioproducts. Based on NCGA information, it appears that about 90 percent of all corn grain grouped by USDA in the
category of food, seed and industrial uses is being processed in a way that results in corn fiber production. The corn
fiber produced as a byproduct of ethanol dry mills, DDG (dry distillers grain) is sold for animal feed. It is estimated that
about half of the corn fiber produced is (or will be used) for animal feed while the remainder is (or could be) used for
bioproducts. The amount of corn fiber available for bioproducts in 2001 was a little over 6 million dry tons. With corn
yield increases of 25 percent, corn fiber not used for cattle feed increases to over 8 million dry tons, and with a 50
percent corn yield increase, it increases to over 12 million dry tons.
The utilization of other secondary sources of wastes from food and feed processing and tertiary wastes, such as MSW
and gas, may be important at a few locations but were not large enough overall to include in a significant way in this
evaluation.
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4.5 Agricultural Resources Summary
The amount of biomass sustainably removable from agricultural lands is currently about 194 million dry tons annually.
This amount can be increased fivefold to nearly 1 billion dry tons within 35 to 40 years through a combination of
technology changes (e.g., higher crop yields and improved residue collection technology), adoption of no-till cultivation,
and changes in land use to accommodate large-scale production of perennial crops. These results are graphically
summarized in Figure 25. By comparison, the total amount of biomass produced on this acreage is 2.1 billion dry tons.
There is a large increase both in total amount of plant matter produced due to higher crop yields and in the available
biomass due to changes in tillage practices and harvest technology. Without the addition of perennial crops targeted
toward biomass production, the maximum amount of sustainably removable biomass would be about 600 million dry
tons under the high technology change assumptions. Approximately the same amount of biomass could be produced
on agricultural lands within 15-20 years with moderate changes in future yields (e.g., 25 percent for corn), less residue
recovery, and less no-till cultivation, provided perennial biomass crops are substituted for other land uses on at least
40 million acres of land. Most of this land could come from idle land (summer fallow and CRP) and cropland pasture.
Use of about 15 million acres of active cropland is assumed.
Some factors not considered could limit the maximum amount of biomass estimated to be available. First, if demand
for meat production increases (rather than remaining level), it will be more difficult to convert conventional cropland
into perennial crop production. Of course, greater animal production would result in more byproducts from the animals
(manures, and oils and grease from animal rendering). Second, higher export demands for wheat and soybeans could
limit conversion of cropland to perennials. Third, if the total cropland base becomes less due to encroachment of
urban populations, cropland conversion will also be less likely to occur. Fourth, the process used for adjusting residue
availability as a function of tillage may not fully account for amounts needed to maintain or increase carbon in soils.
This assessment also did not account for the use of residues by cattle for forage, which was estimated to equal about
12 million dry tons based on 1997 cattle populations (Gallagher et al., 2003). With the trend toward increasing the
proportion of cattle reared in CAFOs, the demand for forage is likely to be decreasing.
32
Figure 25: Summary of potentially available agricultural resources
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Million dry tons per year
Crop residues Grains to biofuels Process residues Perennial crops
Moderate
yield
increase
High crop
yield increase
Moderate
yield
increase
High crop
yield increase
284
53 84
413
97 87
286
56 84 156
446
87 87 377
N
o

p
e
r
e
n
n
i
a
l

c
r
o
p
s
P
e
r
e
n
n
i
a
l

c
r
o
p
s
w
i
t
h

l
a
n
d

u
s
e

c
h
a
n
g
e
50
In contrast, other scenario assumptions could increase the maximum
amounts of biomass estimated to be available. For instance, the crop yield
increases assumed are essentially business-as-usual expectations. None of
the scenarios consider the possibility that technology could overcome yield
limitations caused by drought and pests or increase nutrient use efficiency.
Also, adoption of new cropping technologies in developing countries could
further reduce export demands on the United States. Second, it is just as
logical to assume that future meat demands will decline rather than increase.
Populations will be aging, thus requiring less protein for sustenance. Further,
trends towards healthier eating practices may cause reduced meat demand,
at least in the industrialized countries.
These results are believed to be a reasonable, if not conservative, estimates of future biomass potential in the United
States.
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51
5. Potential Concerns and Impacts
Forestland and cropland resources have the potential to provide for a seven-fold increase in the amount of biomass
currently consumed for bioenergy and biobased products. This annual potential exceeds 1.3 billion dry tons the
equivalent of more than one-third of the current demand for transportation fuels. More than 25 percent of this
potential would come from extensively managed forestlands and about 75 percent from intensively managed
croplands. The major primary resources would be logging residues and fuel treatments from forestland, and crop
residues and perennial crops from agricultural land. Some additional quantities of biomass would be available from
secondary sources; however, most of this biomass would be expected to be used by the forest products industry and
food processing industries. Tertiary or residue sources of biomass are small relative to the primary sources. A sizeable
fraction of this potential would be captive to existing uses. Examples are most of the biomass resource generated by
the forest products industry, fuelwood extracted from forestlands, some urban wood residues, grains used in the
production of biofuels, and some agricultural residues. Excluding these captive uses of biomass from the total
resource potential still shows 220 million dry tons of forestland biomass (logging residue, fuel treatments, urban wood
residues) and, depending on crop yield improvements, 450 to nearly 850 million dry tons of cropland biomass
(agricultural residues, perennial crops, and most process residues) as potentially available for new bioenergy and
biobased product uses (Figure 26).
Producing one billion tons or more of feedstock annually will require technologies that can increase the utilization of
currently available and underutilized feedstocks, such as agricultural residues and forest residues. It will require the
development of perennial crops as an energy resource on a relatively large scale. It will require changes in agricultural
and silvicultural crop management systems. Production yields from these systems will need to be increased and costs
lowered. Changes in the way biomass feedstocks are collected or harvested, stored and transported, and pre-
processed will also have to be made. Accomplishing these changes will obviously require investments and policy
initiatives as well as the coordinated involvement of numerous stakeholder groups to gain broad public acceptance.
Much more program coordination among the Departments of Energy and Agriculture and other federal, state, and local
agencies will be necessary to attain the billion-ton feedstock goal.
The utilization of a significant amount of these biomass resources would also require a concerted R&D effort to
develop technologies to overcome a host of technical, market, and cost barriers. Demonstration projects and
incentives (e.g., tax credits, price supports, and subsidies) would be required. Additional analyses would be required to
discern the potential impact that large-scale forest and crop residue collection and production of perennial crops could
have on traditional markets for agricultural and forest products. These policy considerations are very important but
were certainly well beyond the limited technical scope of this resource assessment. The remainder of this assessment
focuses on utilization issues and analysis limitations.
5.1 Forest-Derived Biomass Resources
The three key forest resources identified for this assessment are residues from logging and other removals, fuel
treatments, and urban wood residues. There are particular issues associated with the utilization of each of these
resources.
Accessibility, terrain (e.g., steep slopes), and environmentally sensitive areas limit fuel treatment operations.
Where treatment operations are appropriate, costs associated with the removal of the excess biomass may be
prohibitive. Separating and marketing larger-diameter trees for conventional (higher-valued) forest products
would be necessary to help defray the costs of dealing with large numbers of small-diameter material (USDA-
FS, 2003). Removing large trees, however, can create unfavorable public opinion and opposition to fuel
treatment operations.
Transportation costs, usually in the range of $0.20 to $0.60 per dry ton-mile, could severely limit haul
distances, if based solely of bioenergy and biobased product values. The availability of markets within viable
transport distances may limit the practicality of removing fuel treatment biomass for bioenergy and biobased
products.
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52
Labor availability may be a key constraint in fuel treatment operations. The strategic fuel treatment
assessment for the western states notes that there is a disparity between the distribution of skilled forestry
workers and the forestlands requiring fuel treatments (USDA-FS, 2003). Mobilizing forestry workers and
equipment across large distances can increase costs and reduce competition for contracted projects.
Figure 26: Summary of potential forest and agricultural resources
52
74
70
47
60
64
0 20 40 60 80
Fuelwood
Pulping liquor
Wood processing
residues
Urban wood
residues
Fuel treatments
Logging &
other residue
0 100 200 300 400 500
Million dry tons per year
Million dry tons per year
Crop residues
Perennial crops
Grain-to-ethanol
Process residues 87
87
446
377
35
53
Fuel treatment operations have the potential to create
environmental impacts, especially if sites are severely
disturbed. The impact of erosion and consequent movement of
sediments into surface waters is a particular concern.
However, studies suggest that there is often a much higher
flow of sediments into surface waters as a consequence of
wildfires than as a consequence of fuel treatment thinning
operations (USDA-FS, 2003).
More cost-effective fuel treatment operations and recovery of
logging and other removal residue will require the development
of more efficient and specialized equipment that can
accommodate small-diameter trees. The availability of more
efficient equipment will make the recovery of biomass for
bioenergy and biobased products much more cost-effective.
Federal funding for forestry programs for such activities as
private tree planting, forest stand management, and technical
assistance are a small fraction (<0.5 percent) of direct
agricultural payments to farmers (Alig et al., 2003). Given the
size of private forestland ownership, well-crafted policies
aimed at providing incentives for landowners to manage their
holdings could attract large quantities of biomass. Of course,
any policies must be based on good science and call for
meeting all sustainability requirements.
The availability of urban wood residues is largely governed by
the size of tipping fees. Where such fees are high (due in part
to the lack of land for landfills), recycling is often higher. Also,
high tipping fees provide economic incentives to utilize these
resources.
Some urban wood residues are highly dispersed, making economical recovery potentially costly. Seasonality of
the generated residue can also affect the viability of this source.
Contamination and commingling of urban wood residues with non-wood products, especially demolition
residues and some construction residues, can limit uses. Contamination with dirt and rocks is also a potential
issue with yard and tree trimmings.
5.2 Agriculture-Derived Biomass Resources
Annual crop residues, perennial crops, and, to a lesser extent, processing residues (e.g., animal manures) have the
potential to sustainably contribute more than 900 million dry tons of biomass annually. This number is in addition to
biomass that is currently used and likely to be used in the future, such as biofuel production from grains. Issues
associated with these resources are as follows.
Utilizing crop residues and growing perennial crops on a large scale would require significant changes in
current crop yields, tillage practices, harvest/collection technologies, and transportation. The yield and
harvest efficiency increases are plausible within reasonable time frames based on current trends and
research directions. While no-till management is also increasing, some question that it would ever be adopted
on all cropland due to significant transition costs in the form of initial lower yields, possible increase in
disease problems, and simple resistance to change. A strong market for bioenergy, however, could be a key to
changing attitudes.
36
Can the same amount of biomass be
produced with more environmentally
beneficial approaches?
The agricultural scenarios assumed are an
improvement over current agricultural
practices because they include higher levels
of conservation tillage, more efficient use of
nutrients, and the introduction of perennial
crops on some land currently producing
annual crops. These benefits are in addition
to the benefits attained by displacing fossil
fuels with biofuels. As cellulosic ethanol
production and other bioenergy and
bioproduct markets increase the value of
biomass, making it more profitable to
displace annual crops with perennial crops,
further environmental benefits are possible.
Replacement of some corn production with
perennial trees and grasses would
significantly reduce fertilizer use and improve
soil carbon, for example. However, the
amount of biomass produced by perennial
crops will have to be more than 10 dry tons
per acre in order to exceed the harvestable
biomass (residue and grain) from corn
producing at yields of 207 bushels per acre.
Thus, it will be difficult to increase total
biomass by replacing corn acres.
Replacement of other annual corps with
perennial crops would clearly generate more
biomass.
54
There are long-term economic and environmental concerns associated with the removal of large quantities of
residues from cropland. Removing any residue on some soils could reduce soil quality, promote erosion, and
lead to a loss of soil carbon which in turn lowers crop productivity and profitability. On other soils, some level
of removal can be sustainable and even beneficial (Wilhelm et al, 2004). Establishment and communication
of research-based guidelines is necessary to ensure that removal of residue biomass is done in a sustainable
manner.
A particular concern has been raised regarding the effect of removing the nutrients embodied in residues. At
a minimum, there is a cost associated with supplying the lost nutrients through fertilizer applications. If
residue removal results in larger fertilizer applications, then the environmental and economic costs
associated with producing and acquiring those fertilizers (nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium as well as
micro-nutrients) must be considered. Production of nitrogen from natural gas is becoming more expensive.
Higher application of fertilizers could exacerbate the problem of nutrient runoff and development of the dead
zone in the Gulf (Raloff, 2004b). Unless current levels of nutrient runoff are voluntarily reduced, farmers are
likely to face increasing regulation to control the problem (Raloff, 2004a).
One of the proposed solutions to the nutrient runoff problem has been to increase the acres of perennial
crops relative to annual crops. Perennial crops require fewer applications of pesticides and fertilizers. When
strategically placed, they can absorb the runoff from annual crop plantings. Other benefits of perennial crops
include less erosion and less soil compaction due to less soil disturbance. Perennial crops also provide
better habitat for many birds, such as migratory song birds and for several types of mammals.
Annual crops are quite variable in yield, particularly at a local level. A key requirement to attaining targeted
crop yields is the availability of sufficient water and nutrients. Genetic selection continues to move toward
crops that are more stable in yield and more efficient in their use of water and nutrients. However, for specific
bioenergy facilities, it will be necessary to consider excess production, storage, and ability to utilize multiple
feedstocks in order to ensure adequate supplies in any given year.
Redirecting large quantities of animal manure to bioenergy uses can lessen nutrient runoff and reduce
contamination of surface water and groundwater resources.
The use of biomass has considerable potential to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, especially if
perennial crops are a large component of the resource mix. Depending how the biomass resources are
utilized, there could also be reductions in regional and locally significant air emissions. The expanded use of
forest- and agriculture-derived biomass resources could result in improvements in water quality (at least
relative to wildfires and annual crops) and reduced soil erosion.
With increased production of ethanol from corn and small grains, the amount of dry distillers grains, gluten
feed and gluten meal will increase. Also, soybean meal will increase as more soybeans are crushed for
biodiesel. The co-products of biofuels production can be used as a protein supplement for livestock in place
of corn grain. It is also assumed in this evaluation that perennial grasses are processed to remove proteins
prior to their utilization as a low-cost ethanol feedstock. With all of these protein sources, there is sufficient
feed material for livestock under all scenarios.
Finally, this evaluation of the technical feasibility of changes in agricultural systems cannot determine
whether markets would respond in a way that would support the biomass potential outlined.
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55
6. Summarized Findings
The U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. Department of Agriculture are both strongly committed to expanding the
role of biomass as an energy source. In particular, they support biomass fuels and products as a way to reduce the
need for oil and gas imports; as a way of supporting the growth of agriculture, forestry, and rural economies; and as a
way to foster major new domestic industries in the form of biorefineries that manufacture a variety of fuels, chemicals,
and other products. The purpose of this analysis was to determine if the land resources of the United States are
sufficient to support a large-scale biorefinery industry capable of displacing a significant fraction of our nations
petroleum consumption. This study found that the combined forest and agriculture land resources have the potential
of sustainably supplying much more than one-third of the nations current petroleum consumption.
Forest lands, and in particular, timberlands, have the potential to sustainably produce close to 370 million dry tons of
biomass annually. This estimate includes the residues generated in the manufacture of various forest products and
the residues generated in the use of manufactured forest products. It also includes the harvest of wood for various
residential and commercial space-heating applications. With the exception of urban wood residues, most of these
sources of forest biomass are currently being utilized and there are significant efforts under way to use these
resources much more efficiently. Two potentially large sources of forest biomass not currently being used are logging
and other removal residues, and fuel treatment thinnings. These sources can sustainably contribute over 120 million
dry tons annually. The logging and other removal residues can easily be recovered following commercial harvest and
land clearing operations. Fuel treatment thinnings can also be recovered concomitantly with efforts to reduce forest
fire hazards and otherwise improve the health of our nations forests.
Agricultural lands can provide nearly 1 billion dry tons of sustainably collectable biomass and continue to meet food,
feed and export demands. This estimate includes 446 million dry tons of crop residues, 377 million dry tons of
perennial crops, 87 million dry tons of grains used for biofuels, and 87 million dry tons of animal manures, process
residues, and other residues generated in the consumption food products. The perennial crops are crops dedicated
primarily for bioenergy and biobased products and will likely include a combination of grasses and woody crops.
Providing this level of biomass will require increasing yields of corn, wheat, and other small grains by 50 percent;
doubling residue-to-grain ratios for soybeans; developing much more efficient residue harvesting equipment;
managing active cropland with no-till cultivation; growing perennial crops whose output is primarily dedicated for
bioenergy purposes on 55 million acres of cropland, idle cropland, and cropland pasture; using animal manure in
excess of what can be applied on-farm for soil improvement for bioenergy; and using a larger fraction of other
secondary and tertiary residues for bioenergy.
In the context of the time required to scale up to a large-scale biorefinery industry, an annual biomass supply of more
than 1.3 billion dry tons can be accomplished with relatively modest changes in land use and agricultural and forestry
practices.
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Annual removals The net volume of growing stock trees removed from the inventory during a specified year by
harvesting, cultural operations such as timber stand improvement, or land clearing.
Asexual reproduction The naturally occurring ability of some plant species to reproduce asexually through seeds,
meaning the embryos develop without a male gamete. This ensures the seeds will produce plants identical to the
mother plant.
Biobased product The term biobased product, as defined by Farm Security and Rural Investment Act (FSRIA),
means a product determined by the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture to be a commercial or industrial product (other than
food or feed) that is composed, in whole or in significant part, of biological products or renewable domestic
agricultural materials (including plant, animal, and marine materials) or forestry materials.
Bioenergy Useful, renewable energy produced from organic matter the conversion of the complex carbohydrates
in organic matter to energy. Organic matter may either be used directly as a fuel, processed into liquids and gasses,
or be a residual of processing and conversion.
Biodiesel Fuel derived from vegetable oils or animal fats. It is produced when a vegetable oil or animal fat is
chemically reacted with an alcohol.
Biorefinery A facility that processes and converts biomass into value-added products. These products can range
from biomaterials to fuels such as ethanol or important feedstocks for the production of chemicals and other
materials. Biorefineries can be based on a number of processing platforms using mechanical, thermal, chemical, and
biochemical processes.
Biofuels Fuels made from biomass resources, or their processing and conversion derivatives. Biofuels include
ethanol, biodiesel, and methanol.
Biomass Any organic matter that is available on a renewable or recurring basis, including agricultural crops and
trees, wood and wood residues, plants (including aquatic plants), grasses, animal manure, municipal residues, and
other residue materials. Biomass is generally produced in a sustainable manner from water and carbon dioxide by
photosynthesis. There are three main categories of biomass primary, secondary, and tertiary.
Biopower The use of biomass feedstock to produce electric power or heat through direct combustion of the
feedstock, through gasification and then combustion of the resultant gas, or through other thermal conversion
processes. Power is generated with engines, turbines, fuel cells, or other equipment.
Black Liquor Solution of lignin-residue and the pulping chemicals used to extract lignin during the manufacture of
paper.
Coarse materials Wood residues suitable for chipping, such as slabs, edgings, and trimmings.
Commercial species Tree species suitable for industrial wood products.
Conservation Reserve Program CRP provides farm owners or operators with an annual per-acre rental payment and
half the cost of establishing a permanent land cover in exchange for retiring environmentally sensitive cropland from
production for 10 to 15 years. In 1996, Congress reauthorized CRP for an additional round of contracts, limiting
enrollment to 36.4 million acres at any time. The 2002 Farm Act increased the enrollment limit to 39 million acres.
Producers can offer land for competitive bidding based on an Environmental Benefits Index (EBI) during periodic
signups, or can automatically enroll more limited acreages in practices such as riparian buffers, field windbreaks, and
grass strips on a continuous basis. CRP is funded through the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC).
Cropland Total cropland includes five components: cropland harvested, crop failure, cultivated summer fallow,
cropland used only for pasture, and idle cropland.
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Glossary
62
Cropland used for crops Cropland used for crops includes cropland harvested, crop failure,
and cultivated summer fallow. Cropland harvested includes row crops and closely sown crops; hay and silage crops;
tree fruits, small fruits, berries, and tree nuts; vegetables and melons; and miscellaneous other minor crops. In recent
years, farmers have double-cropped about 4 percent of this acreage. Crop failure consists mainly of the acreage on
which crops failed because of weather, insects, and diseases, but includes some land not harvested due to lack of
labor, low market prices, or other factors. The acreage planted to cover and soil improvement crops not intended for
harvest is excluded from crop failure and is considered idle. Cultivated summer fallow refers to cropland in sub-humid
regions of the West cultivated for one or more seasons to control weeds and accumulate moisture before small grains
are planted. This practice is optional in some areas, but it is a requirement for crop production in the drier cropland
areas of the West. Other types of fallow, such as cropland planted with soil improvement crops but not harvested and
cropland left idle all year, are not included in cultivated summer fallow but are included as idle cropland.
Cropland pasture Land used for long-term crop rotation. However, some cropland pasture is marginal for crop uses
and may remain in pasture indefinitely. This category also includes land that was used for pasture before crops
reached maturity and some land used for pasture that could have been cropped without additional improvement.
Cull tree A live tree, 5.0 inches in diameter at breast height (d.b.h.) or larger that is non-merchantable for saw logs
now or prospectively because of rot, roughness, or species. (See definitions for rotten and rough trees.)
d.b.h. The diameter measured at approximately breast high from the ground.
Feedstock A product used as the basis for manufacture of another product.
Fiber products Products derived from fibers of herbaceous and woody plant materials. Examples include pulp,
composition board products, and wood chips for export.
Fine materials Wood residues not suitable for chipping, such as planer shavings and sawdust.
Forest land Land at least 10 percent stocked by forest trees of any size, including land that formerly had such tree
cover and that will be naturally or artificially regenerated. Forest land includes transition zones, such as areas between
heavily forested and nonforested lands that are at least 10 percent stocked with forest trees and forest areas adjacent
to urban and built-up lands. Also included are pinyon-juniper and chaparral areas in the West and afforested areas.
The minimum area for classification of forest land is 1 acre. Roadside, streamside, and shelterbelt strips of trees must
have a crown width of at least 120 feet to qualify as forest land. Unimproved roads and trails, streams, and clearings
in forest areas are classified as forest if less than 120 feet wide.
Fuel Treatment Evaluator (FTE) A strategic assessment tool capable of aiding the identification, evaluation, and
prioritization of fuel treatment opportunities.
Fuelwood Wood used for conversion to some form of energy, primarily for residential use.
Grassland pasture and range All open land used primarily for pasture and grazing, including shrub and brush land
types of pasture; grazing land with sagebrush and scattered mesquite; and all tame and native grasses, legumes, and
other forage used for pasture or grazing. Because of the diversity in vegetative composition, grassland pasture and
range are not always clearly distinguishable from other types of pasture and range. At one extreme, permanent
grassland may merge with cropland pasture, or grassland may often be found in transitional areas with forested
grazing land.
Growing stock A classification of timber inventory that includes live trees of commercial species meeting specified
standards of quality or vigor. Cull trees are excluded. When associated with volume, includes only trees 5.0 inches in
d.b.h. and larger.
Idle cropland Land in cover and soil improvement crops, and cropland on which no crops were planted. Some
cropland is idle each year for various physical and economic reasons. Acreage diverted from crops to soil-conserving
uses (if not eligible for and used as cropland pasture) under federal farm programs is included in this component.
Cropland enrolled in the Federal Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is included in idle cropland.
Industrial wood All commercial roundwood products except fuelwood.
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Live cull A classification that includes live cull trees. When associated with volume, it is the net
volume in live cull trees that are 5.0 inches in d.b.h. and larger.
Logging residues The unused portions of growing-stock and non-growing-stock trees cut or killed by logging and left
in the woods.
Nonforest land Land that has never supported forests and lands formerly forested where use of timber
management is precluded by development for other uses. (Note: Includes area used for crops, improved pasture,
residential areas, city parks, improved roads of any width and adjoining clearings, powerline clearings of any width,
and 1- to 4.5-acre areas of water classified by the Bureau of the Census as land. If intermingled in forest areas,
unimproved roads and nonforest strips must be more than 120 feet wide, and clearings, etc., must be more than 1
acre in area to qualify as nonforest land.)
Nonindustrial private An ownership class of private lands where the owner does not operate
wood-using processing plants.
Other forest land Forest land other than timberland and reserved forest land. It includes available forest land, which
is incapable of annually producing 20 cubic feet per acre of industrial wood under natural conditions because of
adverse site conditions such as sterile soils, dry climate, poor drainage, high elevation, steepness, or rockiness.
Other removals Unutilized wood volume from cut or otherwise killed growing stock, from cultural operations such as
precommercial thinnings, or from timberland clearing. Does not include volume removed from inventory through
reclassification of timberland to productive reserved forest land.
Other sources Sources of roundwood products that are not growing stock. These include salvable dead, rough and
rotten trees, trees of noncommercial species, trees less than 5.0 inches d.b.h., tops, and roundwood harvested from
non-forest land (for example, fence rows).
Poletimber trees Live trees at least 5.0 inches in d.b.h. but smaller than sawtimber trees.
Primary wood-using mill A mill that converts roundwood products into other wood products. Common examples are
sawmills that convert saw logs into lumber and pulp mills that convert pulpwood roundwood into wood pulp.
Pulpwood Roundwood, whole-tree chips, or wood residues that are used for the production of wood pulp.
Residues Bark and woody materials that are generated in primary wood-using mills when roundwood products are
converted to other products. Examples are slabs, edgings, trimmings, sawdust, shavings, veneer cores and clippings,
and pulp screenings. Includes bark residues and wood residues (both coarse and fine materials) but excludes logging
residues.
Rotten tree A live tree of commercial species that does not contain a saw log now or prospectively primarily because
of rot (that is, when rot accounts for more than 50 percent of the total cull volume).
Rough tree (a) A live tree of commercial species that does not contain a saw log now or prospectively primarily
because of roughness (that is, when sound cull, due to such factors as poor form, splits, or cracks, accounts for more
than 50 percent of the total cull volume) or (b) a live tree of noncommercial species.
Roundwood products Logs and other round timber generated from harvesting trees for industrial or consumer use.
Salvable dead tree A downed or standing dead tree that is considered currently or potentially merchantable by
regional standards.
Saplings Live trees 1.0 inch through 4.9 inches in d.b.h.
Secondary wood processing mills A mill that uses primary wood products in the manufacture of finished wood
products, such as cabinets, moldings, and furniture.
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Sound dead The net volume in salvable dead trees.
Timberland Forest land that is producing or is capable of producing crops of industrial wood, and that is not
withdrawn from timber utilization by statute or administrative regulation. Areas qualifying as timberland are capable
of producing more than 20 cubic feet per acre per year of industrial wood in natural stands. Currently inaccessible
and inoperable areas are included.
Timber Product Output Database Retrieval System (TPO) Developed in support of the 1997 Resources Planning
Act (RPA) Assessment, this system acts as an interface to a standard set of consistently coded TPO data for each
state and county in the country. This set of national TPO data consists of 11 data variables that describe for each
county the roundwood products harvested, the logging residues left behind, the timber otherwise removed, and the
wood and bark residues generated by its primary wood-using mills.
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Appendix A Forest Resource Analysis
s l a v o m e r r e h t o d n a e u d i s e r g n i g g o l f o y t i l i b a l i a v a t n e r r u C : 1 . A e l b a T
e c r u o s e R t s e r o F
t s e r o F l a n o i t a N c i l b u P r e h t O s d n a L e t a v i r P l a t o T
s n o t y r d n o i l l i m
s e u d i s e r g n i g g o L 1 . 1 2 . 3 4 . 4 4 8 . 8 4
s l a v o m e r r e h t O 5 . 0 7 . 0 1 . 7 1 3 . 8 1
l a t o T 6 . 1 9 . 3 5 . 1 6 1 . 7 6
e t o N e t o N e t o N e t o N e t o N : t f / s b l y r d 0 3 f o y t i s n e d e g a r e v a n a s e m u s s a a t a d c i r t e m u l o v f o n o i s r e v n o C
3
) e s a b a t a d t u p t u O t c u d o r P r e b m i T (
e c r u o S e c r u o S e c r u o S e c r u o S e c r u o S : ) a 4 0 0 2 , S F - A D S U ( e s a b a t a d t u p t u O t c u d o r P r e b m i T
s l a v o m e r r e h t o d n a e u d i s e r g n i g g o l r o f s r o t c a f y t i l i b a l i a v A : 2 . A e l b a T
s n o i t i d n o c y r e v o c e r t n e r r u c r e d n u
e c r u o s e R t s e r o F
e l b a l i a v A e c r u o s e R t s e r o F f o n o i t r o P
t s e v r a H
y c n e u q e r F
e l b i s s e c c A
n o i t c a r F
y r e v o c e R
n o i t c a r F
s s a m o i B
n o i t c a r F
l a t o T
y t i l i b a l i a v A
e u d i s e r g n i g g o L
c i l b u P
e t a v i r P
1
1
5 6 . 0
5 6 . 0
1
1
5 6 . 0
5 6 . 0
y l l a u n n A
y l l a u n n A
s l a v o m e r r e h t O
c i l b u P
e t a v i r P
1
1
5 . 0
5 . 0
1
1
5 . 0
5 . 0
y l l a u n n A
y l l a u n n A
: s e t o N e r a s l a i r e t a m e s e h t d e d i v o r p e l b i s s e c c a % 0 0 1 e b o t d e m u s s a e r a s l a v o m e r r e h t o m o r f e u d i s e r d n a e u d i s e r g n i g g o L
d n a s e i d u t s d l e i f n o d e s a b e r a s n o i t c a r f y r e v o c e R . s n o i t a r e p o g n i r a e l c d n a l r o / d n a t s e v r a h h t i w y l t n e r r u c n o c d e v o m e r
g n i k a m e z i s l e c r a p r e l l a m s y l l a r e n e g f o e s u a c e b s i s l a v o m e r r e h t o r o f n o i t c a r f y r e v o c e r r e w o l e h T . s n o i t i d n o c e t i s e g a r e v a
s i l a i r e t a m d e r e v o c e r l l A . l a i r e t a m s i h t f o y r e v o c e r e h t s t i m i l e z i s - e c e i p d e r e t t a c s d n a l l a m s e h T . t l u c i f f i d e r o m n o i t c e l l o c
. s t c u d o r p d e s a b o i b d n a y g r e n e o i b r o f k c o t s d e e f a s a e l b a l i a v a e b o t d e m u s s a
48
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s l a v o m e r r e h t o d n a e u d i s e r g n i g g o l f o y t i l i b a l i a v A : 3 . A e l b a T
s n o i t i d n o c y r e v o c e r t n e r r u c r e d n u
e c r u o s e R t s e r o F
t s e r o F l a n o i t a N c i l b u P r e h t O s d n a L e t a v i r P l a t o T
s n o t y r d n o i l l i m
s e u d i s e r g n i g g o L 7 . 0 1 . 2 9 . 8 2 7 . 1 3
s l a v o m e r r e h t O
3 . 0 4 . 0 5 . 8 2 . 9
l a t o T 0 . 1 5 . 2 4 . 7 3 9 . 0 4
s e t o N d n a ) 1 . A e l b a T ( e z i s e c r u o s e r l a t o t e h t f o t c u d o r p e h t n o d e s a b s i e u d i s e r l a v o m e r r e h t o d n a g n i g g o l f o y t i l i b a l i a v A :
. ) 2 . A e l b a T ( r o t c a f y t i l i b a l i a v a
s l a v o m e r r e h t o d n a e u d i s e r g n i g g o l f o y t i l i b a l i a v A : 4 . A e l b a T
s n o i t i d n o c y r e v o c e r d n a h t w o r g e r u t u f r e d n u
e c r u o s e R t s e r o F
t s e r o F l a n o i t a N c i l b u P r e h t O s d n a L e t a v i r P l a t o T
s n o t y r d n o i l l i m
s e u d i s e r g n i g g o L 0 . 1 1 . 3 3 . 2 4 4 . 6 4
s l a v o m e r r e h t O 5 . 0 7 . 0 3 . 6 1 4 . 7 1
l a t o T 5 . 1 8 . 3 5 . 8 5 8 . 3 6
s e t o N s e t o N s e t o N s e t o N s e t o N r o f % 7 4 d n a % 5 3 y b e s a e r c n i o t d e m u s s a e r a s t c u d o r p d o o w d n u o r d e t s e v r a h , ) y r u t n e c - d i m ( s n o i t i d n o c e r u t u f r e d n U :
r o f % 6 o t % 7 . 6 m o r f e n i l c e d o t d e m u s s a s i d e t a r e n e g e u d i s e r g n i g g o l f o t n u o m a e h T . y l e v i t c e p s e r , s d o o w d r a h d n a s d o o w t f o s
f o n o i t c a r f e h T . ) 3 0 0 2 ( s e n y a H m o r f d e v i r e d e r a s n o i t p m u s s a e s e h T . s d o o w d r a h r o f % 9 o t % 4 . 2 1 m o r f d n a s d o o w t f o s
. % 0 2 y b e s a e r c n i o t d e m u s s a s i e u d i s e r l a v o m e r r e h t o d n a g n i g g o l e l b a r e v o c e r
49
67
e c r u o s e r s g n i n n i h t t n e m t a e r t l e u f l a t o T : 5 . A e l b a T
e c r u o s e R t s e r o F
t s e r o F l a n o i t a N c i l b u P r e h t O s d n a L e t a v i r P l a t o T
s n o t y r d n o i l l i m
d n a l r e b m i T 9 4 8 , 1 0 7 7 5 7 1 , 5
4 9 7 , 7
d n a l t s e r o f r e h t O 7 4 1 8 5 1 0 1 3
6 1 6
l a t o T 6 9 9 , 1 8 2 9 6 8 4 , 5 0 1 4 , 8
: e t o N . 3 t f / s b l y r d 0 3 s e m u s s a a t a d s i s y l a n A y r o t n e v n I t s e r o F c i r t e m u l o v f o n o i s r e v n o C
p o t m u m i n i m h c n i 4 a o t n e k a t s e h c n i 7 n a h t r e t a e r g s e e r t - s p u o r g n o i t a z i l i t u o w t o t n i d e n o i t i t r a p e r e w s e m u l o v e e r T
d e m u s s a s a w l a i r e t a m d e z i s - r e g r a l e h T . ) s e e r t r e t e m a i d l l a m s , s b m i l , s p o t ( l a i r e t a m r e l l a m s g n i n i a m e r e h t d n a r e t e m a i d
. s t c u d o r p d e s a b o i b d n a y g r e n e o i b r o f e l b a t i u s l a i r e t a m d e z i s - r e l l a m s e h t d n a s t c u d o r p e u l a v - r e h g i h r o f e l b a t n a h c r e m
: e c r u o S ) c 4 0 0 2 , S F - A D S U ( r o t a u l a v E t n e m t a e r T l e u F
s g n i n n i h t t n e m t a e r t l e u f r o f s r o t c a f y t i l i b a l i a v a d e m u s s A : 6 . A e l b a T
e c r u o s e R t s e r o F
e l b a l i a v A e c r u o s e R t s e r o F f O n o i t r o P
t s e v r a H
y c n e u q e r F
e l b i s s e c c A n o i t c a r F y r e v o c e R n o i t c a r F
d n a l r e b m i T
c i l b u P
e t a v i r P
6 . 0
8 . 0
5 8 . 0
5 8 . 0
3 . 0
3 . 0
5 1 . 0
0 2 . 0
s r a e y 0 3
s r a e y 0 3
d n a l t s e r o f r e h t O
c i l b u P
e t a v i r P
6 . 0
8 . 0
5 8 . 0
5 8 . 0
9 . 0
9 . 0
6 4 . 0
1 6 . 0
s r a e y 0 3
s r a e y 0 3
s e t o N . ) 3 0 0 2 ( S F - A D S U m o r f n o t r a p n i d e s a b e r a s n o i t p m u s s a e s e h T :
50
68
s g n i n n i h t t n e m t a e r t l e u f f o y t i l i b a l i a v A : 7 . A e l b a T
e c r u o s e R t s e r o F
t s e r o F l a n o i t a N c i l b u P r e h t O s d n a L e t a v i r P l a t o T
s n o t y r d n o i l l i m
d n a l r e b m i T 4 . 9 9 . 3 2 . 5 3
6 . 8 4
d n a l t s e r o f r e h t O 2 . 2 4 . 2 3 . 6
0 . 1 1
l a t o T 7 . 1 1 3 . 6 5 . 1 4
6 . 9 5
s e t o N e h t d n a ) 5 . A e l b a T ( e z i s e c r u o s e r l a t o t e h t f o t c u d o r p e h t n o d e s a b s i s g n i n n i h t t n e m t a e r t l e u f f o y t i l i b a l i a v A :
. ) 6 . A e l b a T ( y c n e u q e r f t s e v r a h e h t y b d e d i v i d ) 6 . A e l b a T ( s r o t c a f y t i l i b a l i a v a e v i t c e p s e r
s e u d i s e r g n i s s e c o r p y r t s u d n i s t c u d o r p t s e r o F : 8 . A e l b a T
e c r u o S
y g r e n E
r e h t O d n A t c u d o r P
s e s U
d e s u n U l a t o T
) s n o t y r d n o i l l m ( s t c u d o r p y B e u d i s e R l l i M
d o o w y r a m i r P
s l l i m g n i s s e c o r p
4 . 9 3 3 . 0 5 7 . 1 1 . 3 9
d o o w y r a d n o c e S
s l l i m g n i s s e c o r p
_ _ _ _ 5 . 9 1 . 6 6 . 5 1
r e p a p d n a p l u P
s l l i m
1 . 2 5 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
1 . 2 5
: s e t o N n i d o o w e n i f d n a , d o o w e s r a o c , k r a b g n o m a t i l p s s n o t y r d n o i l l i m 3 . 1 9 r o f t n u o c c a s l l i m g n i s s e c o r p d o o w y r a m i r P
% 0 3 t u o b a y b e s a e r c n i o t d e t c e j o r p e r a s e u d i s e r l l i M . y l e v i t c e p s e r , % 7 . 0 3 d n a , % 9 . 2 4 , % 5 . 6 2 - s n o i t r o p o r p g n i w o l l o f e h t
. s l l i m r e p a p d n a p l u p t a d e t a r e n e g r o u q i l k c a l b r o f s s e l t a h w e m o s d n a
: e c r u o S ) a 4 0 0 2 , S F - A D S U ( e s a b a t a d t u p t u O t c u d o r P r e b m i T
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s e u d i s e r d o o w n a b r u f o y t i l i b a l i a v a f o y r a m m u S : 9 . A e l b a T
e u d i s e R d o o W n a b r U
e c r u o S
e u d i s e R f o n o i t i s o p s i D
d e t a r e n e G
d e t s u b m o C , d e r e v o c e R
e l b a s u n U & y g r e n E r o F
e l b a l i a v A
s n o t y r d n o i l l i m
e u d i s e r n o i t c u r t s n o C 6 . 1 1 0 . 3 6 . 8
s i r b e d n o i t i l o m e D 7 . 7 2 1 . 6 1 7 . 1 1
s g n i m m i r t d r a y y d o o W
) W S M (
8 . 9 0 . 8 7 . 1
) W S M ( d o o W 2 . 3 1 3 . 7 0 . 6
l a t o T 3 . 2 6 4 . 4 3 0 . 8 2
: s e t o N d o o w n a b r u f o t n u o m a e h T . t n e t n o c e r u t s i o m % 0 4 n o d e s a b s n o t y r d o t d e t r e v n o c e r e w s g n i m m i r t d r a y y d o o W
d n a l a i t n e d i s e r h t i w d e t a i c o s s a s d n e r t n o d e s a b s i e t a m i t s e s i h T . % 0 3 t u o b a y b e s a e r c n i o t d e t a m i t s e s i d e t a r e n e g e u d i s e r
. s e u d i s e r g n i g a k c a p d n a s e l b a r u d f o l a s o p s i d e h t n i s a l l e w s a , g n i l e d o m e r d n a , n o i t i l o m e d , n o i t c u r t s n o c l a i t n e d i s e r n o n
: e c r u o S ) 4 0 0 2 ( r e v e e K c M
52
70 53
71
Appendix B Agriculture Resource Analysis
s o i r a n e c s e g n a h c h t i w s p o r c r o j a m r o f e n i l e s a b A D S U f o n o s i r a p m o C : 1 . B e l b a T
p o r C r o j a M e n i l e s a B A D S U
e s u d n a l t u o h t i w s e g n a h c y g o l o n h c e T
s p o r c l a i n n e r e p o n , e g n a h c
e s u d n a l h t i w s e g n a h c y g o l o n h c e T
s p o r c l a i n n e r e p e t a d o m o c c a o t e g n a h c
1 0 0 2 4 1 0 2 e t a r e d o M h g i H e t a r e d o M h g i H
n r o C
) s n o i l l i m ( s e r c a d e t s e v r a H 8 . 8 6 6 . 6 7 6 . 6 7 6 . 6 7 6 . 6 7 6 . 6 7
) e r c a / s l e h s u b ( d l e i Y 2 . 8 3 1 8 . 1 6 1 5 7 . 2 7 1 3 . 7 0 2 5 7 . 2 7 1 3 . 7 0 2
) s l e h s u b d n a s u o h t ( n o i t c u d o r P 6 6 2 , 9 0 5 , 9 0 0 0 , 5 9 3 , 2 1 0 5 6 , 2 3 2 , 3 1 0 8 1 , 9 7 8 , 5 1 0 5 6 , 2 3 2 , 3 1 0 8 1 , 9 7 8 , 5 1
) s l e h s u b s 0 0 0 ( y l p p u s n i a r g l a t o T 0 0 0 , 6 1 4 , 1 1 0 0 0 , 4 0 6 , 3 1
e s U
) s l e h s u b s 0 0 0 ( . s e R , e e S , d o o F 0 0 0 , 0 4 3 , 1 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 5 , 1 0 0 2 , 1 8 5 , 1 0 0 0 , 5 3 8 , 1 0 0 2 , 1 8 5 , 1 0 0 8 , 5 3 8 , 1
) s l e h s u b s 0 0 0 ( d e e F l a m i n A 0 0 0 , 4 7 8 , 5 0 0 0 , 0 0 2 , 6 0 0 0 , 0 0 2 , 6 0 0 0 , 0 2 8 , 6 0 0 0 , 0 0 2 , 6 0 0 0 , 0 2 8 , 6
) s l e h s u b s 0 0 0 ( t r o p x E 0 0 0 , 9 8 8 , 1 0 0 0 , 5 7 9 , 2 0 0 0 , 5 7 9 , 2 0 0 5 , 2 7 2 , 3 0 0 0 , 5 7 9 , 2 0 0 5 , 2 7 2 , 3
) s l e h s u b s 0 0 0 ( l e u f / y r t s u d n I 0 0 0 , 4 1 7 0 0 0 , 0 5 7 , 1 0 5 4 , 6 7 4 , 2 0 8 8 , 0 5 9 , 3 0 5 4 , 6 7 4 , 2 0 8 8 , 0 5 9 , 3
) s l e h s u b s 0 0 0 ( s k c o t S 0 0 0 , 9 9 5 , 1 0 0 0 , 9 7 1 , 1
) s l e h s u b s 0 0 0 ( e s U n i a r g l a t o T 0 0 0 , 6 1 4 , 1 1 0 0 0 , 4 0 6 , 3 1 0 5 6 , 2 3 2 , 3 1 0 8 1 , 9 7 8 , 5 1 0 5 6 , 2 3 2 , 3 1 0 8 1 , 9 7 8 , 5 1
t a e h W
) s n o i l l i m ( s e r c a d e t s e v r a H 8 . 8 4 3 . 2 5 3 . 2 5 3 . 2 5 3 . 2 5 5 2 . 7 4
) e r c a / s l e h s u b ( d l e i Y 1 . 0 4 9 . 5 4 1 . 8 4 7 . 5 5 1 . 8 4 8 . 5 5
) s l e h s u b d n a s u o h t ( n o i t c u d o r P 3 4 0 , 7 5 9 , 1 0 0 0 , 0 0 4 , 2 0 6 7 , 3 1 5 , 2 2 7 7 , 1 1 9 , 2 0 6 7 , 3 1 5 , 2 9 7 5 , 5 3 6 , 2
) s l e h s u b s 0 0 0 ( y l p p u s n i a r g l a t o T 0 0 0 , 1 4 9 , 2 0 0 0 , 2 3 0 , 3
e s U
) s l e h s u b s 0 0 0 ( . s e R , d e e S , d o o F 0 0 0 , 0 1 0 , 1 0 0 0 , 9 4 0 , 1 0 0 8 , 1 9 1 , 1 0 0 7 , 3 8 3 , 1 0 0 8 , 1 9 1 , 1 0 0 7 , 3 8 3 , 1
) s l e h s u b s 0 0 0 ( d e e F l a m i n A 0 0 0 , 3 9 1 0 0 0 , 0 3 2 0 0 0 , 0 3 2 0 0 0 , 0 3 2 0 0 0 , 0 3 2 0 0 0 , 0 3 2
) s l e h s u b s 0 0 0 ( t r o p x E 0 0 0 , 1 6 9 0 0 0 , 0 0 2 , 1 0 0 0 , 0 0 2 , 1 0 0 0 , 0 0 2 , 1 0 0 0 , 0 0 2 , 1 0 0 0 , 0 0 2 , 1
) s l e h s u b s 0 0 0 ( l e u f / y r t s u d n I 0 0 0 4 0 , 8 0 1 - 2 7 0 , 8 9 0 4 0 , 8 0 1 - 1 2 1 , 8 7 1 -
) s l e h s u b s 0 0 0 ( s k c o t S 0 0 0 , 7 7 7 0 0 0 , 3 5 5
) s l e h s u b s 0 0 0 ( e s U n i a r g l a t o T 0 0 0 , 1 4 9 , 2 0 0 0 , 2 3 0 , 3 0 6 7 , 3 1 5 , 2 2 7 7 , 1 1 9 , 2 0 6 7 , 3 1 5 , 2 9 7 5 , 5 3 6 , 2
s n a e b y o S
) s n o i l l i m ( s e r c a d e t s e v r a H 0 . 3 7 4 . 1 7 4 . 1 7 4 . 1 7 4 . 1 7 4 . 3 6
) e r c a / s l e h s u b ( d l e i Y 6 . 9 3 6 . 3 4 8 4 7 . 4 4 8 0 7 . 8 4 8 4 7 . 4 4 8 0 7 . 8 4
) s l e h s u b d n a s u o h t ( n o i t c u d o r P 2 8 6 , 0 9 8 , 2 0 0 0 , 5 1 1 , 3 7 0 0 , 5 9 1 , 3 1 5 7 , 7 7 4 , 3 7 0 0 , 5 9 1 , 3 7 8 0 , 8 8 0 , 3
) s l e h s u b s 0 0 0 ( y l p p u s n i a r g l a t o T 9 4 7 , 0 4 1 , 3 0 0 0 , 8 2 3 , 3
e s U
) s l e h s u b s 0 0 0 ( . s e R , d e e S , d o o F 3 0 3 , 8 3 4 4 1 9 , 7 6 4 7 9 1 , 7 1 5 5 7 4 , 0 0 6 7 9 1 , 7 1 5 5 7 4 , 0 0 6
) s l e h s u b s 0 0 0 ( d e e F l a m i n A 2 6 2 , 4 8 0 , 1 8 3 4 , 7 0 3 , 1 8 3 4 , 7 0 3 , 1 8 3 4 , 7 0 3 , 1 8 3 4 , 7 0 3 , 1 8 3 4 , 7 0 3 , 1
) s l e h s u b s 0 0 0 ( t r o p x E 5 3 8 , 3 5 3 , 1 0 0 5 , 2 7 2 , 1 0 0 5 , 2 7 2 , 1 0 0 5 , 2 7 2 , 1 0 0 5 , 2 7 2 , 1 0 0 5 , 2 7 2 , 1
) s l e h s u b s 0 0 0 ( l e u f / y r t s u d n I 9 2 9 , 8 4 1 7 , 5 3 2 7 8 , 7 9 8 3 3 , 7 9 2 2 7 8 , 7 9 6 2 3 , 2 9 -
) s l e h s u b s 0 0 0 ( s k c o t S 6 2 9 , 4 5 2 3 3 5 , 3 4 2
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