EnergyUpdate 2011 REPORT
EnergyUpdate 2011 REPORT
EnergyUpdate 2011 REPORT
Commonwealth of Australia 2011 This work is copyright. The Copyright Act 1968 permits fair dealing for study, research, news reporting, criticism or review. Selected passages, tables or diagrams may be reproduced for such purposes provided acknowledgment of the source is included. Major extracts or the entire document may not be reproduced by any process without the written permission of the Executive Director, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES). The Australian Government acting through ABARES has exercised due care and skill in the preparation and compilation of the information and data set out in this publication. Notwithstanding, ABARES, its employees and advisers disclaim all liability, including liability for negligence, for any loss, damage, injury, expense or cost incurred by any person as a result of accessing, using or relying upon any of the information or data set out in this publication to the maximum extent permitted by law.
Schultz, A and Petchey, R 2011, Energy update 2011, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra, June.
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences Postal address GPO Box 1563 Canberra ACT 2601 Australia Switchboard +61 2 6272 2010 Facsimile +61 2 6272 2001 Email [email protected] Web abares.gov.au ABARES project 43124
Acknowledgments
The authors thank Clara Cuevas-Cubria, Kate Penney, Dianne Stefanac, Richard Brownlee, Kate Martin, Clare Stark and Trish Gleeson for their assistance throughout this project. Funding for this update was provided by the Energy and Environment Division of the Australian Government Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism.
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ABARES historical energy statistics was based on the voluntary Fuel and Electricity Survey (FES), conducted in the second half of each year. With the introduction of NGER, survey year 200809 became the final year that the FES was conducted. For survey year 200910, NGER data have been used as the primary source of energy consumption data. Revisions were made to 200809 AES statistics to incorporate NGER data where appropriate. Secondly, total final energy consumption (TFEC) estimates have been presented in this publication for the first time. The two most recent years (200809 and 200910) of TFEC estimates have been prepared for this update; however, backward extensions to this time series will be developed on an ongoing basis. The move to replace the FES with NGER data is expected to result in a more accurate representation of energy consumption in Australia through the AES. Mandatory NGER reporting for entities consuming over a defined threshold of energy is likely to improve the estimates of energy use for many industries that the FES was unable to adequately survey. However, as with the FES, aggregate NGER data represent only a subset of total Australian energy use, as the majority of Australian businesses are small or medium consumers of energy. In undertaking the AES, NGER data were supplemented with information from other Australian Government agencies, state-based agencies and industry associations. As in the past, in sectors with low or no NGER coverage (commercial and services, agriculture and residential), energy consumption was estimated using the energy balance process and other estimation techniques. Thirdly, the 2006 Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC) standards to categorise industry have been incorporated into the AES for the first time. These replace the 1993 ANZSIC classifications that had been used previously, and improve the AES as a resource comparable with other Australian Government industry-specific information. Finally, in this Energy update, new information has been presented on electricity generation in Australia. While previously only aggregate electricity generation, by state, had been reported, the AES now additionally presents a series of national electricity generation by the type of fuel used. More information on these changes can be found in appendix A. The ABARES energy database provides detailed energy consumption and production statistics, by state and by fuel, at an industry-specific level. The most detailed sub-sectoral coverage is provided in the energy-intensive manufacturing sectors and for Australia as a whole. In some cases, particularly at the state level, specific industry detail is not able to be released for confidentiality reasons. The overview tables include industry-specific detail, but at an adequate level of aggregation that allows publication. The general methodology used in the AES is the process of balancing energy consumption with production and trade, where much of the production and trade data is sourced independently. The check for internal consistency is an important component of the AES and ensures that the estimates of energy consumption at an aggregate level are as accurate as possible.
Box 1
In this update, three different definitions of energy consumption are usedtotal primary energy supply (TPES), total final energy consumption (TFEC) and total net energy consumption. TPES is a measure of the total energy supplied within the economy. It is equal to indigenous production plus imports minus exports, plus stock changes and statistical discrepancies. TPES includes the supply of both primary and secondary fuels. TFEC is the energy used by the final or end-use sectors, and can be seen as a subset of total energy supplied. TFEC includes all energy consumed, except for the consumption of energy that is used to convert or transform primary energy into different forms of energy. For example, refinery feedstock that is used to produce petroleum products and fuels consumed in the generation of electricity are both excluded from TFEC. Total net energy consumption is equal to the consumption of all fuels minus the derived fuels produced within the economy. For this update, this term is most useful when describing total energy consumed at an industry or regional level.
1973 74
1976 77
renewables
1979 80
1982 83
1985 86
oil
1988 89
coal
1991 92
1994 95
1997 98
2000 01
2003 04
2006 07
2009 10
natural gas
share
37.5 34.6 23.1 4.8 100.0
PJ % % % Coal 2 229 Oil 2 058 Gas 1 372 Renewables 286 Total 5 945
PJ = petajoules.
In energy content terms, renewable energy (excluding biomass) recorded consumption growth in 200910 of 17.1 per cent. Of the renewable energy sources, solar energy and wind energy grew strongly, each by around 26 per cent, although from a relatively low base (table 2). Hydroelectricity increased by 13.3 per cent, reflecting Total primary energy supply, by renewable higher rainfall in south-eastern Australia than in 200809. However, energy source a decline of 7.1 per cent in biomass growth consumption offset these increases, 200910 200910 causing total renewable energy PJ % consumption to remain largely Biogas/biofuels 21 14.0 unchanged at 286 petajoules in Hydro 45 13.3 200910. This decline in biomass Wind 17 26.0 consumption resulted from a fall Solar 11 26.2 in the use of bagasse for electricity Biomass 192 7.1 generation by sugar manufacturers Total 286 0.3 in Queensland and New South PJ = petajoules. Wales.
3 653
3 703
1.4
100.0
Since the early 1990s, growth in energy consumption has generally remained below the rate of economic growth. This indicates a longer-term decline in the ratio of energy use to activity in the Australian economy (energy intensity), which can be attributed to two main factors: improvements in energy efficiency associated with technological advancement; and a shift in industry structure toward less energy-intensive sectors such as commercial and services. In 200910, energy intensity as defined as the ratio of total primary energy supply to gross domestic product (GDP) declined by around 1.1 per cent (gure 2).
1991 92
GDP
1993 94
1995 96
1997 98
1999 2000
2001 02
2003 04
2005 06
2007 08
2009 10
energy consumption
energy intensity
Total net energy consumption in 200910 increased by 3.4 per cent in New South Wales. This increase largely reflected greater energy use in the iron and steel industry, the petroleum refining sector, the aviation industry, and the non-ferrous metal sector.
Total net energy consumption increased in Western Australia and the Northern Territory by 3.1 per cent and 3.6 per cent, respectively. The main driver of these increases was higher consumption of natural gas in LNG processing. Total net energy consumption in Queensland fell by around 1 per cent to 1301 petajoules as energy consumption fell in the petroleum refining and electricity supply industries (table 4).
5 945
1.1
100.0
5000
petajoules
1973 74
renewables
1977 78
1981 82
1985 86
1989 90
1993 94
1997 98
natural gas
2001 02
2005 06
2009 10
black coal
brown coal
uranium
Olympic Dam operation following the closure of the main haulage shaft in late 2009 resulting in lower production over three quarters. The energy associated with the combined production of Australian crude oil, condensate and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) also fell by 4.2 per cent during 200910. The decline in energy produced partly reflects lower output from the Woollybutt and Stybarrow oilfields associated with scheduled maintenance and extensive flooding in the Cooper Basin. Partly offsetting these falls was increased energy production from coal (up 8.6 per cent to 10 571 petajoules) and gas (up 8.2 per cent to 2005 petajoules). The increase in energy from coal largely came from increased coal production as a result of the completion of several coal mines, including New Hope Coals New Acland and Whitehavens Rocglen. The growth in energy from gas was supported by the start-up of the Blacktip and Henry fields and increased output of coal seam gas in south-east Queensland (gure 3, table 5).
PJ % % % Black coal 9 827 8.4 3.7 56.9 Brown coal 744 11.2 2.5 4.3 Renewables 286 0.3 1.0 1.7 Crude oil and natural gas liquids 1 057 4.2 1.4 6.1 Gas 2 005 8.2 4.7 11.6 Uranium 3 363 30.6 8.2 19.5 Total
PJ = petajoules.
17 282
3.0
0.3
100.0
In 200910, total electricity generated in Australia declined by 1.2 per cent to 241 566 gigawatt hours (870 petajoules). The main drivers of this decline were falls in generation from combustible fuels, including coal (down 2.9 per cent), oil products (down 11.6 per cent) and bioenergy (down 9.1 per cent). An unusually warm period during the September quarter of 200910 temporarily reduced demand for electricity, resulting in lower electricity output for the year as a whole. While comprising a small share of overall electricity generation, increasing generation from renewable sources such as wind, hydro and solar energy partially offset the decline in generation from combustible fuels. Estimated electricity generation from wind and solar energy increased significantly in 200910, by 26.0 per cent and 78.2 per cent, respectively (gure 4, table 6). The strong growth from solar energy was largely a result of government policies encouraging increased uptake of solar photovoltaics in the residential sector.
1991 92
other
1994 95
oil products
1997 98
renewables
2000 01
natural gas
2003 04
brown coal
2006 07
black coal
2009 10
GWh % % % Fossil fuels Black coal 124 478 3.7 0.9 51.5 Brown coal 55 968 0.9 1.8 23.2 Gas 36 223 1.0 2.3 15.0 Oil 2 691 11.6 6.8 1.1 Other 2 496 4.2 na 1.0
Renewable energy Bioenergy 2 113 9.1 2.4 0.9 Wind 4 798 26.0 40.2 2.0 Hydro 12 522 13.3 4.3 5.2 Solar PV 278 78.2 25.2 0.1
Total
GWh = gigawatt hours.
241 566
1.2
0.2
100.0
In energy content terms, Australias energy exports declined by 0.7 per cent to 13 710 petajoules in 200910, largely reflecting lower exports of uranium oxide associated with lower production as a result of the outage at Olympic Dam. Largely offsetting this, LNG and coal exports grew strongly, by 15.9 per cent and 12.4 per cent, respectively. In energy content terms, coal exports accounted for 61 per cent of Australias energy exports in 200910 (8327 petajoules), while uranium accounted for around one-quarter (3551 petajoules). Higher exports of coal and LNG were supported by increased demand from Asia, particularly China and India, where economic growth was relatively strong during the year (gure 5, table 7).
1973 74
LNG
1977 78
oil
1981 82
uranium
1985 86
1989 90
1993 94
1997 98
2001 02
2005 06
2009 10
black coal
growth 200910
Coal Oil a LNG Uranium Total
200910
share
PJ
% % 4.8 60.7 1.3 6.3 11.0 7.1 7.7 25.9 1.3 100.0
8 327 12.4 860 6.5 972 15.9 3 551 25.3 13 710 0.7
a includes crude oil, natural gas liquids and petroleum products. PJ = petajoules.
Australia is a net importer of liquid hydrocarbons, including crude oil, and most petroleum products. In 200910, Australia exported around 860 petajoules of liquid fuels (excluding LNG but including international bunkers) and imported around 1800 petajoules. Net imports rose by 7.9 per cent in 200910 as the increase in imports of liquid fuels more than offset the increase in exports.
appendix
The 2011 edition of the Energy update reflects several changes made to the methodology and structure used in the Australian Energy Statistics (AES) database. The changes were made to incorporate three main developments: 1. new primary source data 2. new energy statistics definitions 3. new industry classifications. This appendix provides an explanation of these changes and the effect of the changes on the AES.
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A1
Facilities b
All years 25 000 tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent
a If a business breaks the controlling corporation threshold, it must report its energy consumption, production and/or emissions data for each facility under its control. b If a business does not break the controlling corporation threshold, but one of the facilities under its control breaks the facility threshold, that business is required to report for that facility only. Source: Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency
When constructing the AES, in some sectorsfor example, mining and non-ferrous metals where NGER coverage is almost complete, it was possible to use the NGER as the predominate source of information for the AES. For most industry sectors, while coverage is greatly improved from that obtained using the FES, substantial estimation continues to be required to determine state-based and national industry energy consumption aggregates. In other sectors, including agriculture, commercial and services, and residential, it was necessary to continue to rely mainly on other estimation techniques, including regression analysis.
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Total primary energy supply (TPES): A measure of the total energy supplied within the economy. It is equal to indigenous production plus imports minus exports, plus stock changes and statistical discrepancies. TPES includes both primary and secondary fuels (gure A1).
Production
Imports
Exports
Total net energy consumption: A measure of the total energy used within the economy. At an aggregate level, total net energy consumption is equivalent to total primary energy supply. It is equal to consumption of all fuels minus the derived fuels produced within the economy, which is equivalent to the total consumption of primary fuels in both the conversion and end-use sectors plus net imports of transformed fuels. This term is most useful when describing total energy use at an industry or regional level, as TPES is not applicable in these circumstances. It includes fuel inputs in conversion activitiesnotably the consumption of fuels used to produce petroleum products and electricityand own use and losses in the conversion sector. It also includes the consumption of transformed fuels, such as refined petroleum products, that are not produced domestically. It does not include secondary fuels that are produced domestically, such as coke, coal by-products and petroleum products, as the energy embodied in these fuels is already accounted for in the primary fuels that they are produced from (gure A2).
TFEC
TPES
Total final energy consumption (TFEC): The total energy consumed in the final or end-use sectors. It is equal to TPES less energy consumed or lost in conversion, transmission and distribution.
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ReseArcH fUNDING ABARES relies on nancial support from external organ isations to complete its research program. As at the date of this publication, the following organisations had provided nancial support for Bureau research in 200910 and 201011. We gratefully acknowledge this assistance.
AusAID Australia Indonesia Governance Research Partnership (ANU) Australian Competition & Consumer Commission Australian Fisheries Management Authority Australian Government Department of Innovation, Industry, Science and Research Australian Government Department of Climate Change and Energy Eciency Australian Government Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism Australian Government Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population & Communities Australian Government Department of the Treasury Australian National University Cooperative Research Centre for National Plant Biosecurity CSIRO Dairy Australia Department of Primary Industries, parks, Water and Environment, Tasmania Ensis (joint venture between the CSIRO (Aust) and Scion (NZ)) Environment ACT Environmental Hydrology Associates Fisheries Research & Development Corporation
Food Standards Australia New Zealand Forest & Wood Products Australia Goulburn-Murray Water Grains Research & Development Corporation Grape & Wine Research & Development Corporation Horticulture Australia Limited Industry & Investment NSW Inovact Consulting Pty Ltd Korea Rural Economics Institute Meat & Livestock Australia MurrayDarling Basin Authority National Water Commission New Zealand Institute of Veterinary, Animal & Biomedical Sciences Peel Harvey Catchment Council Plant Health Australia Queensland Competition Authority Queensland Department of Employment, Economic Development & Innovation Rural Industries Research & Development Corporation Sinclair Knight Mertz South Australian Research & Development Institute Southern Cross University University of Melbourne
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