2013-7-11 DBS Vickers Plantation Companies
2013-7-11 DBS Vickers Plantation Companies
2013-7-11 DBS Vickers Plantation Companies
Wired Daily
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
11 July 2013
Todays Focus
Plantation Companies - In a weak CPO price environment, prefer Bumitama, First Resources and Wilmar.
US Indices Dow Jones S&P NASDAQ Regional Indices ST Index ST Small Cap Hang Seng HSCEI HSCCI KLCI SET JCI PCOMP KOSPI TWSE Nikkei
Last Close 15,291.7 1,652.6 3,520.8 3,188.0 568.1 20,904.6 9,215.1 3,971.1 1,768.7 1,388.4 4,478.6 6,308.2 1,824.2 8,011.7 14,416.6
Pts Chg (8.7) 0.3 16.5 9.4 (3.1) 221.6 163.9 19.0 2.2 (10.3) 74.8 (18.8) (6.2) 40.5 (56.3)
% Chg (0.1) 0.0 0.5 0.3 (0.5) 1.1 1.8 0.5 0.1 (0.7) 1.7 (0.3) (0.3) 0.5 (0.4)
US stocks ended mixed but futures are higher after FED Chairman Ben Bernanke reassured that interest rates will stay low for a long time even as the FED minutes showed members debating whether to halt bond this year. 10-year treasury yields fell 2.576% while the USD weakened. Against the SGD, the USD weakened to 1.265 from 1.28 last week. STI is expected to rebound, testing the 3220 (38.2% upward retracement) level and while an overshoot to 3246 is even possible. These levels remain below the 13.9x (average) 12mth forward PE of 3266. Malaysias Jun13 palm oil stockpile dropped 9% m-o-m to 1.647m MT c.11% below forecast as same month output came in 10% below expectations. Flat Jun13 palm oil exports were partly compensated by higher domestic consumption. Given YTD numbers and Ramadan slowdown, we cut Jul13 output forecasts by 3% to 1.656m MT. Jul13 stockpile may further drop to 1.593m MT. Productivity may deteriorate if low prices persist. In a weak CPO price environment, we recommend stocks with young age profile, decent volume growth, trading at a discount to peers, have relatively low unit cost of production, and strong balance sheet. For SGX listed stocks, we believe Bumitama Agri, First Resources and Wilmar fit these criteria. Asian Telecom Sector update: Among mature markets, Hong Kong is likely to benefit more than Singapore from 4G networks. For the emerging markets, China and Thailand are monetizing 3G better than Indonesia. Our top picks in Singapore are StarHub and M1. As roaming revenue bottom out in 2013, average revenue per user (ARPU) is set to rise in 2014F due to the impact of data re-pricing. M1 and StarHub are expected to benefit more from potentially higher excess data charges. StarHub to benefit from rising popularity of Android phones while M1. StarHub & M1 had net debt to EBITDA of 0.5x & 0.6x respectively at the end of 1Q13 versus 1.0x for SingTel. StarHub is likely to raise annual DPS (from 20 Scts currently) after spectrum auction in Aug 2013. For SingTel, weaker regional currencies (AUD, INR, IDR) and huge investments into Myanmar and Digital Life business are the key risks.
STI Index Performance Singapore Total Market cap (US$bn) Total Daily Vol (m shrs) 12m ST Index High 12m ST Index Low
Index
3,000
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Share Buy-Back
Company CSC Holdings Ltd GP Industries Limited Ov erseas-Chinese Banking Corp Pacific Century Regional Dev ts AEM Holdings Ltd Ban Leong Technologies Limited GP Industries Limited Longcheer Holdings Limited Pacific Century Regional Dev ts Ov erseas-Chinese Banking Corp Hong Leong Corporation Ov erseas-Chinese Banking Corp AEM Holdings Ltd GP Industries Limited Hupsteel Ltd Ov erseas-Chinese Banking Corp Pacific Century Regional Dev ts United F ood Holdings Limited AEM Holdings Ltd CSC Holdings Ltd Hupsteel Ltd Pacific Century Regional Dev ts Popular Holdings Limited Ov erseas-Chinese Banking Corp United F ood Holdings Limited D.O.T . 10-J ul-13 10-J ul-13 10-J ul-13 10-J ul-13 09-J ul-13 09-J ul-13 09-J ul-13 09-J ul-13 09-J ul-13 09-J ul-13 08-J ul-13 08-J ul-13 05-J ul-13 05-J ul-13 05-J ul-13 05-J ul-13 05-J ul-13 05-J ul-13 04-J ul-13 04-J ul-13 04-J ul-13 04-J ul-13 04-J ul-13 04-J ul-13 04-J ul-13 Buy /Sell Share Buy -Back Share Buy -Back Share Buy -Back Share Buy -Back Share Buy -Back Share Buy -Back Share Buy -Back Share Buy -Back Share Buy -Back Share Buy -Back Share Buy -Back Share Buy -Back Share Buy -Back Share Buy -Back Share Buy -Back Share Buy -Back Share Buy -Back Share Buy -Back Share Buy -Back Share Buy -Back Share Buy -Back Share Buy -Back Share Buy -Back Share Buy -Back Share Buy -Back No.of shares 300,000 49,000 200,000 10,000 125,000 90,000 40,000 2,284,000 9,000 60,000 3,000 130,000 550,000 60,000 250,000 150,000 3,000 700,000 450,000 150,000 280,000 3,000 495,000 200,000 566,000 S$/shr 0.1022 0.5050 10.0900 0.2200 0.0910 0.2028 0.5000 0.1580 0.2200 9.9400 0.1380 9.8700 0.0920 0.5050 0.2250 9.9200 0.2200 0.0530 0.0910 0.1026 0.2249 0.2200 0.2700 9.8500 0.0539
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CWT Ltd CWT Ltd Lantrovision Ltd Tsit Wing Int'l Second Chance S'pore Land KS Energy KS Energy KS Energy KS Energy CWT Ltd CWT Ltd ASJ Hldgs Global Invacom S'pore Land Oriental Grp Oriental Grp Oriental Grp AIMS AMP Cap Venture Corp Fragrance Grp Fragrance Grp Technics Oil & Gas Aspial Corp Sup Multi-Pack Sup Multi-Pack Sup Multi-Pack KS Energy KS Energy KS Energy St. James Hldgs St. James Hldgs St. James Hldgs KS Energy KS Energy KS Energy Ascendas Hospitality Technics Oil & Gas Croesus Retail Tr Croesus Retail Tr Croesus Retail Tr Raffles Med Raffles Med Raffles Med Singapore Land KS Energy Karin Tech
03-Jul-13 03-Jul-13 03-Jul-13 03-Jul-13 03-Jul-13 03-Jul-13 03-Jul-13 03-Jul-13 03-Jul-13 03-Jul-13 02-Jul-13 02-Jul-13 02-Jul-13 02-Jul-13 02-Jul-13 02-Jul-13 02-Jul-13 02-Jul-13 02-Jul-13 02-Jul-13 02-Jul-13 02-Jul-13 01-Jul-13 01-Jul-13 01-Jul-13 01-Jul-13 01-Jul-13 01-Jul-13 01-Jul-13 01-Jul-13 30-Jun-13 30-Jun-13 30-Jun-13 28-Jun-13 28-Jun-13 28-Jun-13 28-Jun-13 28-Jun-13 28-Jun-13 28-Jun-13 28-Jun-13 28-Jun-13 28-Jun-13 28-Jun-13 28-Jun-13 28-Jun-13 28-Jun-13
Loi Kai Meng Loi Kai Meng (Pte) Ltd Chan Thye Yuan Wong Tat Tong Mohamed Salleh John Gokongwei, Jr Kris Taenar Wiluan Pacific One Energy Rija Hldgs Richard James Wiluan Loi Kai Meng Loi Kai Meng (Pte) Ltd Chia Soon Loi Neo Chee Beng John Gokongwei, Jr Dingji Inv Wu Dingrong Wu Dingrong George Wang Aberdeen Asset Mgt PLC Koh Wee Meng Lim Wan Looi Ting Yew Sue Koh Wee Seng Pianissimo Ltd Polaris Incorp SMP Inv (S) PL Pac One Energy Rija Hldgs Richard James Wiluan Dennis Foo Jong Long Gordon Foo Chuan Wei Jenny Kwan Lai Wan Pacific One Energy Rija Holdings Richard James Wiluan Jurong Town Corp Ting Yew Sue Target Value Fund Target Asset Mgmt Teng Ngiek Lian Loo Choon Yong Loo Choon Yong Raffles Medical Hldgs John Gokongwei, Jr Kris Taenar Wiluan Ng Yuk Wing
1.46 1.46 0.28 na 0.45 9.00 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48 1.44 1.44 na 0.16 9.01 0.14 0.14 0.12 1.67 7.28 0.24 0.24 0.84 0.40 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.88 0.84 0.95 0.95 0.95 3.01 3.01 3.01 8.92 0.45 0.32
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Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy
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Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy
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Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Sell Sell Sell Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy
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*Deemed Interest Source: Business Times; SA: Share Allotment; ST: Share Transfer, B/R: Bonus/Rights Issue; OE: Option Exercise; PL: Placement Shares
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Announced Dividends and Capital Issues: 10 Jul 2013 22 Nov 2013 (by Ex-Date)
Company MEGHMANI ORGANICS LIMITED MOYA ASIA LIMITED FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST METRO HOLDINGS LIMITED METRO HOLDINGS LIMITED GLOBAL LOGISTIC PROP LIMITED SIA ENGINEERING CO LTD N212100H 140201 N213100S 150201 COURTS ASIA LIMITED JAPAN FOODS HOLDING LTD. JAPAN FOODS HOLDING LTD. SMRT CORPORATION LTD SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD BAN LEONG TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED BOUSTEAD SINGAPORE LIMITED BOUSTEAD SINGAPORE LIMITED BUKIT SEMBAWANG ESTATES LTD BUKIT SEMBAWANG ESTATES LTD MTQ CORPORATION LIMITED VALUETRONICS HOLDINGS LIMITED SATS LTD. SATS LTD. GP BATTERIES INT LTD KING WAN CORPORATION LIMITED SINGTEL TAT HONG HOLDINGS LTD CORTINA HOLDINGS LIMITED CORTINA HOLDINGS LIMITED HIAP SENG ENGINEERING LTD POWERMATIC DATA SYSTEMS LTD WILLAS-ARRAY ELEC (HLDGS) LTD GP INDUSTRIES LIMITED GP INDUSTRIES LIMITED TRANSIT-MIXED CONCRETE LTD NY01100F 160901 NY03100A 180901 NY05100N 200901 NY07100X 220901 NY09100H 240901 NZ07100S 270301 NZ10100F 300901 FALCON ENERGY GROUP LIMITED A-SONIC AEROSPACE LIMITED POPULAR HOLDINGS LIMITED NOVO GROUP LTD. N509100N 141001 N511100W 160401 N513100T 180401 N710100Z 170401 NA12100N 420401 NX09100W 190601 NX11100X 210601 Type DIVIDEND ENTITL. DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND INTEREST INTEREST DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND INTEREST INTEREST INTEREST INTEREST INTEREST INTEREST INTEREST DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND INTEREST INTEREST INTEREST INTEREST INTEREST INTEREST INTEREST Particulars INR 0.05 SCH OF ARRANGE OFFER OF 1 FOR 1 APPROXIMATE SGD 0.019 LESS TAX SGD 0.02 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.02 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.04 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.15 ONE-TIER TAX 0.0025 0.0025 SGD 0.0101 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.006 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.17 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.011 ONE-TIER TAX SCRIPDIVSCHEME SGD 0.03 ONE-TIER TAX SCRIPDIVSCHEME SGD 0.02 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.04 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.11 ONE-TIER TAX SCRIPDIVSCHEME SGD 0.02 ONE-TIER TAX HKD 0.08 SGD 0.06 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.04 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.1 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.025 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.02 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.005 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX HKD 0.06132 SGD 0.015 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.015 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX 0.0375 0.04 0.0325 0.03125 0.03 0.035 0.02875 SGD 0.005 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.0017 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX 0.01375 0.01125 0.005 0.02375 0.0275 0.025 0.0225 Ex Date 17-Jul-13 17-Jul-13 18-Jul-13 19-Jul-13 19-Jul-13 23-Jul-13 23-Jul-13 24-Jul-13 24-Jul-13 29-Jul-13 29-Jul-13 29-Jul-13 29-Jul-13 30-Jul-13 31-Jul-13 31-Jul-13 31-Jul-13 31-Jul-13 31-Jul-13 31-Jul-13 01-Aug-13 02-Aug-13 02-Aug-13 05-Aug-13 05-Aug-13 05-Aug-13 05-Aug-13 06-Aug-13 06-Aug-13 06-Aug-13 06-Aug-13 06-Aug-13 14-Aug-13 14-Aug-13 20-Aug-13 23-Aug-13 23-Aug-13 23-Aug-13 23-Aug-13 23-Aug-13 23-Aug-13 23-Aug-13 27-Aug-13 30-Aug-13 09-Sep-13 10-Sep-13 23-Sep-13 23-Sep-13 23-Sep-13 23-Sep-13 23-Sep-13 22-Nov-13 22-Nov-13 Paid/ Payable 07-Aug-13 11-Sep-13 01-Aug-13 01-Aug-13 12-Aug-13 07-Aug-13 01-Aug-13 01-Aug-13 21-Aug-13 15-Aug-13 15-Aug-13 14-Aug-13 16-Aug-13 14-Aug-13 23-Sep-13 23-Sep-13 15-Aug-13 15-Aug-13 19-Sep-13 16-Aug-13 16-Aug-13 16-Aug-13 27-Aug-13 16-Aug-13 23-Aug-13 16-Aug-13 22-Aug-13 22-Aug-13 28-Aug-13 27-Aug-13 23-Aug-13 29-Aug-13 29-Aug-13 10-Sep-13 02-Sep-13 02-Sep-13 02-Sep-13 02-Sep-13 02-Sep-13 02-Sep-13 02-Sep-13 18-Sep-13 17-Sep-13 25-Sep-13 04-Oct-13 01-Oct-13 01-Oct-13 01-Oct-13 01-Oct-13 01-Oct-13 02-Dec-13 02-Dec-13
Source: SGX
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July 2013
Mon 1 2 Tues 3 Wed 4 Thu 5 Fri
Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E Electronics Sector Index Purchasing Managers Index
10
EOC 3Q 13
11
12
15
Fortune REIT 2Q 13 Keppel REIT 2Q 13 K-Green Trust 2Q 13 SPH 3Q 13
16
M1 2Q 13
17
CapitaCommercial Trust 2Q 13 CapitaLand Ltd 2Q 13 Keppel Land Ltd 2Q 13 Keppel T&T 2Q 13 Sabana Shari'ah 2Q 13
18
CapitaRetail China Trust 2Q 13 Keppel Corp Ltd 2Q 13
19
CapitaMall Trust 2Q 13
Monthly Property Sales Data Retail Sales Ex Auto (YoY) Retail Sales (YoY) Retail Sales (MoM) sa
Electronic Exports (YoY) Non-oil Domestic Exports (YoY) Non-oil Domestic Exp SA (MoM) Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E
22
SIA Engineering 1Q 2014
23
Singapore Exchange 4Q 2013
24
Cache Logistics Trust 2Q 13 Frasers Commercial Trust 3Q 13 Mapletree Commercial Trust 1Q 14
25
Flextronics 1Q 14 Fraser Centrepoint Trust 3Q 13 Fraser Commercial Trust 3Q 13 Mapletree Industrial Trust 1Q 14 Singapore Airlines 1Q 14
26
29
XP Power 1H 13
30
Osim International 2Q 13 UOI 2Q 13
31
Unemployment Rate (sa) Credit Card Bad Debts Credit Card Billings M1 Money Supply (YoY) M2 Money Supply (YoY) Bank Loans & Advances (YoY)
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DBSV recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows: STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame) BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps) HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps) FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months) SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)
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ii.
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