Transition Timeline, by Shaun Chamberlin (Book Preview)

THE TRANSITION TIMELINE
Chelsea Green E-Galley. Not for copying or distribution. Quotation with permission only. UNCORRECTED PROOF.
for a local, resilient future
Peak Oil
The all-time peak of global oil production marks a turning point in human tion and heating to manufacturing and food production, the implications of
2008: Projected peak of production history—the beginning of the second half of the Oil Age. The arrival of “peak peak oil are enormous.
oil” does not mean that supplies are about to run out, but rather that output
can no longer increase.
In the 1950s, American geophysicist M. King Hubbert developed the first
detailed analysis of peak oil. He observed how oil production—whether in a
s “So here it is: the map and
field or region—tended to follow a bell curve with the peak occurring near
midpoint, when about half of the deposits had been extracted.10
When will the world reach maximum oil produc-tion? Estimates vary,
but a growing consensus of experts now believes the peak is at hand. timeline of how to save our
Beyond the peak, oil output inexorably declines, as new drilling fails to
world and ourselves.”

offset shrinking flows from older fields. Passing the peak will also mean the
end of cheap oil as supply inevitably falls short of demand and as extraction
Estimates of Peak Oil12
2.80
Ken Deffeyes, Princeton professor 2005

costs escalate.
—Richard Heinberg, author of2006—2007
A.M.S. Bakhitari, Iranian oil executive
2.84
No one knows with certainty how steep or bumpy the ride down will Chris Skrebowski, editor of Petroleum Review
After 2007
2.79
be. The actual path of depletion will depend on unpredictable factors The Party’s Over and Peak Everything
Matt Simmons, investment banker 2007—2009
such as the rate of new oil discoveries, political and economic events, David Goodstein, vice provost, Caltech Before 2010
2.70
Colin Campbell, former oil company geologist 2010

0.43
and the introduction of new technology and alternative energy sources.

U.S. Energy Information Administration nominal case 2016
Is the world ready for peak oil? One influential report suggests that
0.42
Jean Laherrere, oil company geophysicist 2010—2020

industrial societies should take action decades in advance of the peak to
2.61
0.41
Thierry Desmarest, CEO, Total 2020

avoid major disruptions.11 Cambridge Energy Research Associates After 2020
0.41
For industrial societies that depend on oil for everything from transporta-
2.43
Shell Oil After 2025

1.71
1.33
1.06
0.41
0.89
1.01
1.33
1.03
1.43
1.05
Shaun Chamberlin UNCONVENTIONAL OIL

Foreword by Rob Hopkins Natural Gas Liquids
s
Includes petroleum liquids extracted from
gas plants.
“A book of hopeful realism, making clear that the future

Polar we want remains in our grasp.”
Includes all oil originating within the Artic
—Jamais Cascio, cofounder of WorldChanging.com
and Antarctic circles.
Deep Water
LATE ADDITION
For a Local, Resilient Future
Shaun Chamberlin
Foreword by Rob Hopkins
For a Local, Resilient Future
Shaun Chamberlin A Positive and Solutions-Focused Manual
Foreword by Rob Hopkins for Building a Resilient Future
A PositiveThe
weand Solutions-Focused Manual
Transition Timeline lightens the fear of our uncertain future, providing a map of what
are facing and the different pathways available to us. It describes four possible scenarios
for Building a Resilient Future
for the UK and world over the next twenty years, ranging from Denial, in which we reap the
consequences of failing to acknowledge and respond to our environmental challenges, to the
Transition Vision, in which we shift our cultural assumptions to fit our circumstances and
The Transition Timeline lightens the fear of our uncertain future, providing a map of what
move into a more fulfilling, lower energy world.
we are facing and the different pathways available to us. It describes four possible scenarios
for the UK andThe practical,
world realistic
over the nextdetails of this
twenty Transition
years, rangingVision
fromareDenial,
examined in inwhich
depth,we
covering key
reap the
areas such as food, energy, demographics, transport and healthcare, and they provide a sense
consequences of failing to acknowledge and respond to our environmental challenges, to the
of context for communities working towards a thriving future. The book also provides a
Transition Vision, in which
detailed we shiftupdate
and accessible our cultural
on climateassumptions to fitoilour
change and peak andcircumstances
the interactions and
between
Pub Date: May 2009move into a more fulfilling,
them, includinglower energy in
their impacts world.
the UK, present and future.
$22.95 US, $29.95 CAN • PB
9781603582001 The practical, realistic detailsyour
Use it. Choose of this Transition
path, Visionthat
and then make arefuture
examined in your
real with depth, covering
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individually
83/4 x 83/4 • 192 pages withenergy,
areas such as food, your community. As Robtransport
demographics, Hopkins outlines in his foreword,
and healthcare, thereprovide
and they is a rapidly spreading
a sense
Two-color throughout movement addressing
of context for communities workingthese challenges,
towards and it future.
a thriving needs you.
The book also provides a
Nature/Environment detailed and accessible update on climate change and peak oil and the interactions between
Pub Date: May 2009 them, including their impacts in the UK, present and future.
$22.95 US, $29.95 CAN • PB
9781603582001 Also Available: Use it. Choose your path,“So
andhere
thenit make
is: thethat
mapfuture real with
and timeline of your
how actions, individually
to save our world and
83/4 x 83/4 • 192 pages THE TRANSITION HANDBOOK with your community. AsandRobourselves.”
Hopkins outlines in his foreword, there is a rapidly spreading
By Rob Hopkins movement addressing these challenges, and it author
needs you.
Two-color throughout —Richard Heinberg, of The Party’s Over and Peak Everything
$24.95 US • PB • 9781900322188
Nature/Environment
“The Transition Timeline isn't another climate jeremiad, but a map
of the course we'll need to take over the coming decade if we are
Also Available: “So here it is: the map and timeline of how to save our world
to save our planet, and ourselves.”
THE TRANSITION HANDBOOK and ourselves.”
—Jamais Cascio, Co-founder of WorldChanging.com
By Rob Hopkins
—Richard Heinberg, author of The Party’s Over and Peak Everything
$24.95 US • PB • 9781900322188
“What we get with The Transition Timeline is a map of the land-
scape
“The Transition we haveisn't
Timeline to find a way climate
another through.jeremiad,
Don't set out
butwithout
a mapit.”
—David Fleming, author of Energy and the Common Purpose
of the course we'll need to take over the coming decade if we are
Shaun Chamberlin was born and grew up to save our planet, and ourselves.”
in Kingston upon Thames. He graduated in
Philosophy from the University of York in—Jamais Cascio,
“In thisCo-founder
refreshingly of WorldChanging.com
real and hopeful book, Shaun Chamberlin lays
2001 and then went on to work on a proj- out the many aspects of the limits to our growth, and highlights the
ect for marginalized groups and trained to fact that cultural change is likely our only successful path forward.”
work as a teacher. In 2005, Shaun devoted —Nate
“What
himself full-time to exploring the challenges
we get withHagens, Editor of Timeline
The Transition The Oil Drum
is a map of the land-
facing our global community. Following scape
the we have to find a way through. Don't set out without it.”
“Life After Oil” course at Schumacher —David Fleming,
“Highlyauthor of Energy
readable and welland the Common
researched-this Purpose
book is a hugely valu-
College in 2006, he started his own web-
able contribution to Transition thinking . . . Read it and implement
Shaun Chamberlin wassite,born
www.darkoptimism.org,
and grew up and helped
form Transition Town Kingston in 2007. its wisdom if you want to help create a liveable future.”
in Kingston upon Thames. He graduated in
Philosophy from the University of York in “In this refreshingly real Harding,
—Dr. Stephan and hopeful
authorbook, ShaunEarth
of Animate Chamberlin lays
2001 and then went on to work on a proj- out the many aspects of the limits to our growth, and highlights the
ect for marginalized groups and trained to fact that cultural change is likely our only successful path forward.”
work as a teacher. ChelseaGreen.com • 802.295.6300
In 2005, Shaun devoted —Nate Hagens, Editor of The Oil Drum
himself full-time to exploring the challenges
facing our global community. Following the Media Inquires contact: Taylor Haynes at: [email protected]
“Life After Oil” course at Schumacher “Highly readable and well researched-this book is a hugely valu-
ableFor more information go to: . . . Read it and implement
College in 2006, he started his own web-
contribution to Transition thinking
site, www.darkoptimism.org, and helped
form Transition Town Kingston in 2007. its wisdom if you want to help create a liveable future.”
http://www.chelseagreen.com/bookstore/item/the_transition_timeline:paperback
—Dr. Stephan Harding, author of Animate Earth
The Transition Timeline
The Transition Movement is an increasingly global movement which seeks to inspire, catalyse and
support community responses to peak oil and climate change. It is positive and solutions-focused,
and is developing a diversity of tools for building resilience and happiness around the world. From
awareness-raising and local food groups, to creating local currencies and developing ‘Plan Bs’ for their
communities, Transition movements seek to embrace the end of the Oil Age as being a tremendous
opportunity – the opportunity for a profound rethink of much that we have come to take for granted.
www.transitionnetwork.org
“Peak oil and climate change are two of the greatest challenges we face today; the Transition Town movement is firmly
rooted in the idea that people taking action now in their communities can not only tackle these environmental threats but also,
in the process of doing so, lead more fulfilling lives. It is about hope in an otherwise bleak-seeming future. Above all, it’s about
the power of an alternative vision for how society could be, and not waiting for government or politicians to get it right.
The Transition Timeline is designed to bring that vision to life – with stories of what communities have already
achieved, with updates on the latest scientific data, and with ‘maps’ that highlight key landmarks on the journey
towards a zero-carbon future. It’s a hugely valuable manual for anyone committed to turning
dreams into reality. Don’t just read this book – use it to change your world.”
– Caroline Lucas MEP, leader of the Green Party of England and Wales,
and co-author of Green Alternatives to Globalisation: A Manifesto.
“Shaun Chamberlin ties down the uncertainties about climate, energy, food, water and population, the big
scene-setters of our future, with no-nonsense authority. What we get with The Transition Timeline is a map
of the landscape we have to find a way through. Map-making is a risky business: sooner or later someone is going
to use your map and come across a treacherous swamp that isn’t marked. So you need to be alert to revisions and
reports from travellers. But what matters is that someone has got the key characteristics of the landscape drawn out.
This is what we have to make sense of – not in the distant future, but right now.
Don’t set out without The Transition Timeline. Take a biro. Scribble updates, comments, expressions of shock
and horror, notes to cheer yourself up. By the time your copy has been rained on, stained with blackberry juice,
consulted, annotated, used to press and preserve a leaf of our autumnal world, you will have a good idea of
where you are, and inspiration about where you are going. It is almost as good as getting there.”
– David Fleming, Director of The Lean Economy Connection, and author of Energy and the Common Purpose
“There is obviously no single, magic bullet solution to climate change. But if I was forced to choose one –
our best hope of averting the crisis – it would definitely be Transition Towns.”
– Franny Armstrong, Director of The Age of Stupid film
“Transition has emerged as perhaps the only real model we have for addressing our current crisis – a new,
if vital, format for reconsidering our future. The Transition Timeline strengthens a fragile form, something
that might, without a trace of irony, be called one of the last, best hopes for all of us.”
– Sharon Astyk, author of Depletion and Abundance: Life on the New Home Front and
A Nation of Farmers: Defeating the Food Crisis on American Soil
“The work of the Transition Towns movement is incredibly important.”

– Ed Miliband MP, UK Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change
“Will the future be as rosy as The Transition Timeline suggests it might be? Will the people of Britain and the rest of
the world begin immediately to make better decisions, taking the welfare of future generations into account?
The answer to both questions is probably no. Will serious repercussions of decisions already taken (regarding fossil
fuel consumption and the structuring of our economy to depend on perpetual growth for its viability) come to bite us
hard before we even have a chance to implement some of the excellent recommendations contained in this book?
The answer to that one is certainly yes – we are already seeing dire consequences of past economic and energy decisions.
Nevertheless, without a vision of what can be, there is no alternative to a future completely constrained by the past. The ideal
future set forth herein is not a useless pipe-dream. There is not a single outcome described in this book that could not realistically
be achieved IF we all do things beginning now that are entirely within our ability to do. So here it is: the map and timeline of
how to save our world and ourselves. Whether we WILL take up these suggestions as scheduled is a question for the cynics
and dreamers to debate. For us realists, the only relevant questions are: Where do we start?, and, Will you join us?”
– Richard Heinberg, Senior Fellow of the Post Carbon Institute,
and author of eight books, including The Party’s Over and Peak Everything
“The next 100 months will be a very special time for humanity. On numerous fronts, the consequences of the past 150 years
of industrialisation are all simultaneously coming home to roost. Even senior experts, scientists, NGOs and political leaders
fail to appreciate that the most recent evidence reveals a situation more urgent than had been expected, even by those who
have been following it closely for decades. The Transition Timeline provides an invaluable set of innovative approaches, new
narratives and creative thinking tools that will prove vital in enabling us to shape a new kind of society and a new kind of
economy: stable in the long term, locally resilient, but still active in a global context, rich in quality jobs, with a strong sense
of purpose and reliant on indigenous, inexhaustible energy. It should be read by everyone, immediately!”
– Paul Allen, Director of the Centre for Alternative Technology,
and project director of Zero Carbon Britain
“Humanity is facing a once in a species crisis. We are approaching 7 billion people and appropriating
an increasing percentage of the planet’s net primary productivity, posing myriad and complex problems to our
future and that of the planet’s ecosystems. Of all the biophysical limits to continuing our current trajectory,
energy surplus per capita looms large. And, as cheap, high quality per capita energy availability declines, our current
cultural paradigm of competing for conspicuous consumption must end.
In this refreshingly real and hopeful book, Shaun Chamberlin lays out the many aspects of the limits to our growth,
and highlights the fact that cultural change is likely our only successful path forward. Throughout, we are offered
vision and hope that mobilising locally and nationally towards civic change does not represent a sacrifice of our health or
happiness – indeed, Chamberlin points out that it would be a sacrifice to continue on our Business as Usual path.
We undoubtedly face serious biological and biophysical constraints that our forebears did not. The Transition Timeline
gives us a guide on how to best use science and culture in adapting to our new situation.”
– Nate Hagens, Editor of The Oil Drum, and former vice president of the Salomon Brothers
and Lehman Brothers investment firms
“The Transition Timeline builds on the success of the Transition movement in galvanising community capacity and
resilience to respond to climate change and peak oil. Using the ‘backcasting’ technique documented in Rob Hopkins’
very successful Transition Handbook, Shaun Chamberlin paints the picture of how we got to a better world by 2027.
Chapters dealing with the basics from food and water through to health and medicine map how Britain made this
transition using positive, bottom up community and cultural adaptation combined with innovative public policies
and available and appropriate technologies.
While definitely focused on empowering the community rather than the policy makers, this book is much more
than a folksy agenda for comfort in the crisis. It is a serious plan to reconstruct society in the light of ecological
and energetic realities, informed by the best evidence about the vortex of forces influencing the global crisis.
Chamberlin runs along a knife edge between the harsh realities facing the whole of humanity on the one hand,
and hope and pragmatic vision on the other, outlining a pragmatic plan for a society-wide adaptation
to the energy descent future. Let’s see if we can run along that knife edge; we have nothing to lose.”
– David Holmgren, co-originator of the Permaculture concept,
and author of Future Scenarios: mapping the cultural implications of peak oil and climate change
“Highly readable and well researched - this book is a hugely valuable contribution to Transition thinking. With grace
and wit Shaun Chamberlin ably scopes out the combined dangers of peak oil and climate change and shows us what
we can do to avoid their worst impacts. Read it and implement its wisdom if you want to help create a liveable future.”
– Dr. Stephan Harding, co-ordinator of the MSc in Holistic Science at Schumacher College,
and author of Animate Earth: Science, Intuition and Gaia
“It’s been said that pessimism is a luxury of good times; in bad times, pessimism is a death sentence. But optimism
is hard to maintain when facing the very real possibility of planetary catastrophe. What’s needed is a kind of
hopeful realism – or, as Shaun Chamberlin puts it, a dark optimism.
In The Transition Timeline, Chamberlin offers his dark optimism in the form of a complex vision of what’s to come.
He imagines not just a single future, or a binary ‘good tomorrow/bad tomorrow’ pairing, but four scenarios set in the late 2020s,
each emerging from the tension between two critical questions: can we recognise what’s happening to us, and can we escape the
choices and designs that have led us to this state? Chamberlin demonstrates that only an affirmative answer to both questions
will allow us to avoid disaster – and that’s where the story he tells starts to get good. The Transition Timeline isn’t another climate
jeremiad, but a map of the course we’ll need to take over the coming decade if we are to save our planet, and ourselves.
The Transition Timeline is a book of hopeful realism, making clear that the future
we want remains in our grasp – but only for a short while longer.”
– Jamais Cascio, Co-founder of WorldChanging.com, Affiliate of the Institute for the Future,
Fellow of the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, and Founder of OpenTheFuture.com
The Transition Timeline
Shaun Chamberlin
Chelsea Green Publishing

White River Junction, Vermont
Contents
acknowledgements Chapter 4 Chapter 9
and context 9 VISION 3: The impossible Electricity and energy 62
dream Present position and trends 62
Foreword
Cultural shift/ Cultural story change 63
by Rob Hopkins 10
ignoring evidence 30 The Transition Vision –
introduction 14 View from 2027 32 looking back from 2027 67
Finding your way Chapter 5
Chapter 10
around this book 17 VISION 4: The Transition Travel and transport 70
Climate change Vision
Present position and trends 70
– a summary 18 Cultural shift/
Cultural story change 72
acknowledging challenges 33
The Transition Vision –
Peak oil View from 2027 36
looking back from 2027 73
– a summary 19
Chapter 6
Chapter 11
Part One: CULTURAL Our choices 38
Health and medicine 79
STORIES AND VISIONS Present position and trends
20 Part Two: A DEEPER
79
OF THE FUTURE LOOK AT THE Cultural story change 81
TRANSITION VISION 40 The Transition Vision –
Chapter 1
looking back from 2027 82
Why cultural
stories matter 21 Chapter 7
Chapter 12
Visions of the future – looking to 2027 23 Population and Wildcards 84
demographics 42
Chapter 2 Present position and trends 42 Chapter 13
VISION 1: Denial Cultural story change 46 An overview
Business as usual/ The Transition Vision – – systems thinking 85
ignoring evidence 24 looking back from 2027 48
View from 2027 25
Chapter 8
Chapter 3 Food and water 49
VISION 2: Hitting the wall Present position and trends 49
Business as usual/ Cultural story change 54
acknowledging challenges 27 The Transition Vision –
View from 2027 29 looking back from 2027 58
Contents
Part Three: MAKING Chapter 16 Part Five:
BEST USE OF THIS Peak oil and UK CONTEXT 154
TIMELINE 90 climate change –
the interplay 127
The supply side dilemma 128 Chapter 20
Chapter 14 The substitution problem 128 Peak oil in the UK 156
TIMELINES AND ENERGY UK Government position 156
DESCENT PLANS 93 Chapter 17 UK oil and natural gas
What is an Energy Descent Plan? 93 Climate change production trends 158
EDAPs so far 94 explained 130 Future implications 159
The Totnes EDAP 95 Where we are today 134
The role of the Timeline Chapter 21
for EDAP teams 95 Chapter 18 climate change
The palette of tools 98 Climate change – in the UK 162
Speculation on future tools 112 the IPCC 135 UK Government position 162
IPCC scenarios and peak oil 135 UK climate trends 164
IPCC on the impacts of Future implications 166
Part Four: GLOBAL
climate change 138
CONTEXT – CLIMATE Problems with the
Closing thoughts 167
CHANGE / FUEL IPCC approach 140 Ongoing process /
DEPLETION 114 Reasons for considering the IPCC feedback 169
position 145
Chapter 15 Appendix A – Substitution
Chapter 19 problem calculation 170
PEAK OIL 116
Introduction to peak oil 116 Climate change – Appendix B – The Transition
a reality check 146 Timeline’s relationship with Zero
Where we are today 117
Climate Code Red 146 Carbon Britain 172
Future oil demand 119
Future fossil fuel prospects 121 Is reducing concentrations of further reading,
Energy Return On Energy Invested 121 atmospheric carbon even possible? 149 references and notes 173
Oil prices 123 Isn’t the scale of the problem
The implications of peak oil 124 terribly depressing? 151 index 187
Dedication
This book is dedicated to my father, Roger, who helped me learn to think for myself.
Copyright © 2009 by Shaun Chamberlin. All rights reserved.

Our Commitment to Green Publishing
No part of this book may be transmitted or reproduced in any form by
Chelsea Green sees publishing as a tool for cultural
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change and ecological stewardship. We strive to
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Originally published in 2009 by Green Books Ltd, Foxhole, Dartington,
editorial mission and to reduce the impact of our
Totnes, Devon TQ9 6EB, UK, in association with the Transition Network
business enterprise on the environment. We print
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First Chelsea Green printing March 2009
This book may cost slightly more because we use
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All photographs are by Rob Hopkins, apart from Amelia Gregory pp.13, 82, 88, 129;
nonprofit coalition of publishers, manufacturers,
Simone Kay p.14; Mike Grenville pp.22, 111; Pontus Edenberg p.39; Jessica C p.43;
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The Transition Timeline was printed on Rolland
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Opaque, a 30-percent post-consumer-waste
recycled paper supplied by RR Donnelley.
Back cover photo of author © Jonathan Helm
Cover design & illustrations © Jennifer Johnson
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Chamberlin, Shaun.
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Acknowledgements and context
This book was originally conceived for the great inspiration, and are much referenced
EDAP (Energy Descent Action Plan) teams herein. I would also draw attention to David
in the various communities giving life to the Holmgren’s excellent Future Scenarios, which
Transition process. I very much hope that it was released while I was writing this book,
proves a useful resource for them, and for and which complements it perfectly.1
the Transition Network supporting their My personal thanks to Paul Allen, Ben
development, who are in turn supported by Brangwyn, Maria Bushra, Rachel Cashdan,
the Tudor Trust. Rosalie Chamberlin, Jonathan Essex, David
While the themes discussed in this book Fleming, Doly Garcia, Marcin Gerwin,
have received far less attention than they Tim Helweg-Larsen, Rob Hopkins, Britain
might warrant, there are a small but growing Houchin, Victoria Hurth, Peter Lipman,
number of outstanding reports which do Pritesh Mehta, Becci Somerville, Chris
provide a context within which The Transition Vernon and David Wasdell for their advice
Timeline sits. The Zero Carbon Britain report and support at various stages of the book’s
produced jointly by the Centre for Alternative development, to Trent for the inspiration,
Technology and the Public Interest Research and to the many others who have provided
Centre, and Climate Code Red by the insight and strengthened the project in their
Carbon Equity group have both provided various ways.
Foreword
by Rob Hopkins
Author of The Transition Handbook and Founder of the Transition Network
The timeline of $147 in July 2008, $40 by February 2009) is

the Transition Timeline now a fact of life, and yes, the economic,
social and political costs are unprecedented,
We live in extraordinary times. Scary times. as are the extraordinary impacts and the deep
Exhilarating times. Bewildering times. Yet damage that cuts in demand have had on
times so pregnant with possibilities as to Western economies. We may well be on the
be unprecedented. Everything may well be edge of the first recession underpinned by a
up for grabs, as we emerge blinking into geologically imposed oil peak.
a new economic and energy world that It is reminiscent of The Wizard of Oz. We
many in government and other positions of have been picked up in a tornado and placed
responsibility are quick to claim that no one back down in a world that initially looks the
could possibly have seen coming. Yet some did same as it did, yet is profoundly different.
see it coming, and their insights are of great The world around us bears little in common
value today as we struggle for clarity. The more with the last time oil cost $40 a barrel. We
I look back to the opening section of 2005’s are slowly finding our feet in this new and
Hirsch Report, the more prescient it is: unfamiliar world, one where businesses
around us are closing, the world is nudging
“. . . the peaking of world oil production
its climate tipping points, and the economic
presents the US and the world with an
situation is profoundly altered.
unprecedented risk management problem. As
As Hirsch points out, mitigation, i.e. a
peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and
wartime scale mobilisation to forever break
price volatility will increase dramatically, and
our societal addiction to oil, should have
without timely mitigation, the economic, social
started at least ten years ago. It didn’t. While
and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable
we now possess sufficient understanding of
mitigation options exist on both the supply and
the nuts and bolts of what a more localised,
demand sides, but to have substantial impact,
low energy world might look like, we lack the
they must be initiated more than a decade in
understanding of how to get there, how we
advance of peaking.”
bring it into existence.
Now here we are, in the world Hirsch predicted. The idea for this book came out of one of
Price volatility ($100 a barrel in January 2008, those days at work when the mind starts to
Foreword 11
Figure 1: The Oil Age Poster,
which can be ordered through
http://www.oilposter.org. It is
distributed free to schools and
non-profit organisations.
“If a picture is worth one

thousand words, then The
Oil Age Poster is worth one
million words . . .”
– US Congressman
R. Bartlett, Maryland
(Republican)
wander, around 3.30pm on a Friday afternoon, the first attempt at such a thing (see p.96).
when I was looking vacantly at the now famous We put peak oil in 2010, the introduction of
‘Oil Age’ poster produced by the Post Carbon carbon rationing in 2011, ‘peak cars’, the point
Institute. It offers a wonderful overview of beyond which the amount of cars on the UK’s
the Oil Age, identifying the crucial points in roads begins its inexorable decline, in 2012.
history as humanity made the dizzying ascent By 2015, Totnes had created its first urban
to its current consumption of around 87 market garden on the site of a former car park,
million barrels of oil a day. 2016 saw the town introduce a free bicycle
The question I pondered, as I stared at scheme and by 2017, schools had to give days
the poster, was what the downward side, the off during the nut season in order to help with
right-hand half, of the poster might look the harvest. By 2020, 50% of food consumed
like. I wondered whether it might be possible in the town was locally grown. Although our
to start to pencil in some of the events and timeline was a mixture of the serious, the
dates that might define our collective, careful studied and the downright silly (e.g. 2021, first
and considered way down the mountain. In great white shark attack on the River Dart), it
Transition Town Totnes, as part of an event became an object of great fascination, people
we ran on Transition Tales a short while later, spending hours poring over it, alternately
we spent a couple of hours coming up with giggling and looking very serious.
12 THE TRANSITION TIMELINE
“At every level the greatest It struck us that there is something respond with sufficient purpose and depth so
obstacle to transforming very powerful about such timelines, and as as to avoid runaway climate change. We need
the world is that we lack Transition Town Totnes entered its Energy new stories, the ones about the generation
the clarity and imagination
Descent Pathways process, it rapidly became who saw the problems, looked them square
to conceive that it could be
different.”
one of our key tools. Later in this book we will in the face, and responded with courage and
– Roberto Unger share some of the tools and exercises we have adaptability, harnessed what excited them and
developed, in the hope that, combined with acted both as midwives for the birth of a new
the thinking around Timelines developed in way of living and as a hospice for the passing
this book, they will be a powerful resource in of the old, unsustainable way of doing things.
planning for the future of your community. Around the world, Transition initiatives are
One of the key themes of this book is stories, stepping ably into this role, and it is hoped
the ones we tell, and why we so urgently need that this book will provide them with some
new ones. We really only have a small handful powerful tools to support their work.
of future stories in our culture. There is the What this book strives to do is not to set out
default Business as Usual story, the one that a complete guide to creating an Energy Descent
assumes the future will be like the present, Action Plan (which will be a subsequent
but with more of everything. Then there’s the publication), but rather to present the context
one that assumes that everything will collapse for these local plans. It arose from various
around our ears overnight, leading to a Mad Transition initiatives telling us that they found
Max-style world of bandits and hairy men it hard to start thinking about how to design for
eking out a living from mouldy potatoes and the future evolution of their community over
roast squirrels. Finally there is what David 20 years, as when they tried to look forward,
Holmgren calls the ‘Techno-fantasy’ story, it all looked rather foggy. So that’s what Shaun
the one that has us living in space stations, Chamberlin has done so brilliantly here, to set
nipping to the Moon on holiday, growing food out as clearly and eloquently as possible what
in bubbling tanks of chemical gloop. that collective journey might look like. As
As this book will set out, the first is fantasy, Alvin Toffler put it,
the second credits humanity with none of
“Our moral responsibility is not to stop the
the ingenuity and creativity that got us here
future, but to shape it . . . to channel our
in the first place and the third is completely
destiny in humane directions and to ease
unfeasible. None of them is remotely
the trauma of transition.”
appropriate for the first generation needing
to design a successful path down from the Rob Hopkins
pinnacle of the energy mountain, and to Dartington, Devon, 2009
Introduction
My personal peak oil story started in 2000, giving their time and energy to improving the
while I was studying philosophy at the situation.
University of York. Out of the blue, I received
an email from my father explaining that “a
long-term survey of oil and gas resources
shows that demand for oil will exceed the
maximum possible supply by 2010 and the
oil price will sky-rocket”, followed by an
(enduringly plausible) outline of the likely
consequences.2
My initial reaction, like that of so many
in their ‘peak oil moment’, was one of shock,
quickly followed by disbelief. I wondered how
Kingston residents, including the author,
there could be near-universal silence on this launch Transition Town Kingston
issue if it truly had such vast implications, and
tried to assure myself that ‘they’ would surely Nowadays, it seems that every week there is
find some solution. Nonetheless, I resolved to a new report adding to the growing chorus
look into it, and to a greater and greater extent of recognition that our society’s current
that decision has shaped my life since. way of life is unsustainable. In my work,
In 2006 I met Rob Hopkins at Schumacher and in my wider life, I rarely meet anyone
College and was impressed by his vision of who argues otherwise. But, strangely, what
Transition Towns. We became friends, but I seems to be less widely acknowledged is
still harboured doubts as to how feasible such that if something is unsustainable, then, by
a transition really is, given the severity of the definition, it’s going to end.
climate and energy trends. As I became more Of course many people shy away from this
involved with the rapidly-growing Transition conclusion because it is deeply challenging,
movement, it quickly became clear to me that and demands of us all that we reconsider many
this sense of ‘pessimism of the intellect, opti- of our basic assumptions about our own lives
mism of the will’ was widespread among those and future plans, and those of our loved ones.
Introduction 15
But once the nettle is grasped, many of us have in. It is a first sweep at uncovering the true “Any field should be judged
also found that this process can be strangely possibilities of our near-future, and perhaps by the degree to which it
inspiring and enlivening. also a balm for those who are starting to wonder understands, anticipates,
and takes action in regard
As Rob put it in his Transition Handbook: whether hope is now found only in denial.
to changes in society.”
Local Transition initiatives are themselves – Bernard Sarason
“The question is not ‘How can we keep
numbered among the most hopeful signs in (1988), The making of an
everything going as it is?’ We should instead
today’s world, and this book also grew from American psychologist: an
ask how we can learn to live within realistic autobiography, Jossey-Bass
their requests. In attempting to draft Energy
energy constraints. Rather than deciding
Descent Action Plans (EDAPs) looking 20
our plan of action first and then picking the
years into the future of their communities,
energy options to match it, we should start
they needed to know what sort of country and
by basing our choices on asking the right
what sort of world they were likely to be living
questions about the energy available to
in. The Transition Timeline helps to fill this
underpin our plans.” 3
gap, providing a sense of that wider context for
The question many of us were silently EDAP teams to use in developing their plans.
asking though was just how many options
are really left? Shaun Chamberlin
This is where The Transition Timeline comes www.darkoptimism.org
Finding your way around this book
On the next two pages you will find an out- The second half of the book may prove the
line summary of the latest evidence on climate most important and stimulating for some
change and peak oil. Cross-references are pro- readers, contributing a number of new insights
vided for those who immediately want the full into the energy and climate challenges facing
detail, but this quick primer provides the key the UK and the world in the 21st century:
points to allow the reader to get straight into
Part Four provides a detailed yet readable
the Timeline information.
exploration of the latest evidence on climate
The first half of the book explores how the change and peak oil, and of the critical inter-
UK could develop against this backdrop, and actions between the two.
is divided into three parts:
Part Five goes on to examine their impacts in
Part One considers four possible visions of the UK, both present and future.
our near future, and the thinking that could
This book is intended as a ‘living document’,
lead us down each path.
and is not attempting to be the final word on
Part Two looks more closely at what may be any of these issues. As history unfolds, new
considered the most desirable of these out- ideas, new stories and new events will surely
comes – The Transition Vision – and exam- emerge, and I hope this book will form the
ines it in depth, exploring some of the key basis for an ongoing conversation about the
areas of concern. future we want to create, within the Transition
movement and beyond.
Part Three, by Rob Hopkins, discusses how
Transition initiatives can best use this book
to support their Energy Descent Planning
process.
Photo source: istockphoto.

Climate change – a summary
The pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concen- aspects to the IPCC approach which indicate
tration was 278 parts per million (ppm) and that they may be understating the severity
did not vary by more than 7ppm between the and urgency of the problem, with observed
years 1000 and 1800 C.E. Yet by 2005 CO2 con- changes already outstripping their most
centrations in our atmosphere were at 379ppm pessimistic predictions. (p.140)
and are currently rising by between 1.5 and 3 Drs James Hansen and Makiko Sato of
ppm each year. By mid-2008 they had reached NASA have found that the threshold for
roughly 385ppm.4 (p.134) runaway global warming is likely to be at 1.7ºC
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate above pre-industrial levels, yet we have already
Change (IPCC) reported in September 2007 that: seen a rise of 0.8°C, with at least an additional
0.6°C rise still due just from emissions to
“if warming is not kept below 20C, which
date. The latest science accordingly argues
will require the strongest of mitigation
that we need to return atmospheric CO2
efforts, and currently looks very unlikely to
concentrations to 300-350ppm in order
be achieved, then substantial global impacts
to avoid catastrophe. We must reduce the
will occur, such as: species extinctions and
already-dangerous amount of carbon in our
millions of people at risk from drought,
atmosphere before temperatures increase too
hunger and flooding, etc.” 5
far and trigger feedback mechanisms. Simply
The IPCC strictly define “very unlikely” reducing the rate at which our emissions
as meaning a likelihood of less than 10%. continue is not sufficient. (p.146 & p.148)
This is because they predict 2.0-2.4°C of Maintaining a benign climate can probably
ultimate warming even if atmospheric CO2 still be achieved, but to grasp this chance
concentrations stabilised at current levels. it will be necessary to radically and rapidly
They also state that even keeping to this restructure our society. The years we are now
level of temperature increase would involve living are the time when the future of our
a peak in CO2 emissions by 2015 and 50- planet’s climate for millennia to come will be
85% reductions in global emissions by 2050, decided.
relative to 2000 levels. (p.138 & p.139) For a fuller readable exploration of climate
Moreover, there are various significant change, see Parts Four and Five of this book.
Peak oil – a summary
It is a fact well-established by experience that unable to source supplies of the energy source
the rate of oil production (extraction) from a that powers modern civilisation. (p.119)
typical oilfield increases to a maximum point Here in the UK our own oil and natural
and then gradually declines. This point of gas production peaked in 1999 and has been
maximum flow is known as the production in steep decline since. Government figures
peak. Because the same is true of the total oil forecast this production plummeting to around
production from a collection of oilfields the 15% of 1999 levels by 2027. With current trends
peaking concept is also applied to regions, to and policies, the Government also predict that
countries and to the entire world. This global by 2010 we could be importing a third or more
production peak is what is generally referred of the UK’s annual natural gas demand. By
to by the term ‘peak oil’.6 (p.116) 2020, we could be looking to import around
Global oil production has broadly levelled 80% of our natural gas needs (and 75% of our
off at around 85-87 million barrels per day coal), yet supplies are likely to face disruption,
(m b/d) since mid-2005, despite the incentive and the UK is one of the most gas-dependent
to increase production caused by the massive countries in the world. (p.158)
increase in oil prices in that time (from a $13 The term ‘peak oil’ is commonly used as
average in 1998 to over $140 in July 2008). Many shorthand for energy resource depletion
new oil wells have begun producing in this time, more generally, and the immense challenges
which means that this new production is only associated with this. Due to humanity’s
just managing to offset the accelerating decline extraordinary dependence on oil, and the lack
in production from existing fields. (p.118) of comparable substitutes, oil is the main focus,
Production losses through depletion are but other non-renewable fuels such as natural
only going to increase around the world, and gas, coal and uranium all face depletion issues
global discovery of new oil peaked back in to varying degrees of urgency. When this is
1965, so we are likely to see declining global considered alongside the need to minimise
production, regardless of where the oil price our usage of high-carbon fuels due to climate
goes. Unfortunately, with global demand for change, it becomes clear that we must learn to
oil projected to reach nearly 100m b/d by 2015, live fulfilling lives using less energy. (p.127)
the price trend is likely to be upwards, with For a fuller readable exploration of peak
increasing numbers of people (and countries) oil see Parts Four and Five of this book.
Part One
Cultural stories and

visions of the future
Chapter 1
Why cultural stories matter

On the previous two pages I outlined the present their perspectives, and why politicians “A person will worship
trends on climate change and peak oil, which present both positive and negative visions and something, have no doubt
represent perhaps the most urgent and narratives to win our votes.7 about that. We may think
our tribute is paid in secret
significant forces shaping our future. Yet even
in the dark recesses of our
these challenges are, in a sense, only symptoms hearts, but it will out.
of an underlying reality. They are consequences That which dominates our
of the choices we have collectively made and imaginations and our thoughts
continue to make, and these choices are will determine our lives, and
shaped by our understanding of the world – our character. Therefore, it
by our stories. behooves us to be careful what
we worship, for what we are
worshipping we are becoming.”
– Ralph Waldo Emerson
“When people treat, say, fizzy

Totnes poet Matt Harvey telling stories at the brown sugar water as a source
launch of the town’s EDAP process of their identity and human
value, their resemblance to
Our cultural stories help to define who we are fairy-tale characters under an
and they strongly impact our behaviours. One enchantment isn’t accidental.”
example of a dominant story in our present – John Michael Greer
culture is that of ‘progress’ – the story that
we currently live in one of the most advanced
It is the stories that we tell ourselves about civilisations the world has ever known, and
life – both individually and in our wider that we are advancing further and faster all
cultures – that allow us to make sense of the the time. The definition of ‘advancement’
bewildering array of sensory experiences is vague – though tied in with concepts like
and wider evidence that we encounter. They scientific and technological progress – but the
tell us what is important, and they shape our story is powerfully held. And if we hold to
perceptions and thoughts. This is why we this cultural story then ‘business as usual’ is
use fairy stories to educate our children, why an attractive prospect – a continuation of this
advertisers pay such extraordinary sums to astonishing advancement.
22 THE TRANSITION TIMELINE
“In a time of drastic change The problem with stories comes when they should pay close attention when Sharon Astyk
it is the learners who survive; shape our thinking in ways that do not reflect suggests that there are certain key historical
the ‘learned’ find themselves reality and yet we refuse to change them. The moments at which it is possible to reshape
fully equipped to live in a
evidence might support the view that this cultural stories rapidly and dramatically, by
world that no longer exists.”
– Eric Hoffer
‘advanced’ culture is not making us happy advancing one’s agenda as a logical response
and is rapidly destroying our environment’s to events:
“Once we lived with a sense ability to support us, but dominant cultural
“I think it is true that had Americans been
of our own limits. We may stories are powerful things, and those who
have been a hubristic kind
told after 9/11, ‘We want you to go out and
challenge them tend to meet resistance and
of animal, but we knew that grow a victory garden and cut back on en-
even ridicule.
our precocity was contained ergy usage’, the response would have been
The developing physical realities examined
within a universe that was tremendous – it would absolutely have been
in detail in Parts Four and Five will surely
overwhelmingly beyond our possible to harness the anger and pain and
influence. That sensibility change our cultural stories, whether we like it
frustration of those moments, and a people
is about to return. Along or not, but we can choose whether to actively
who desperately wanted something to do.” 8
with it will come a sense of engage with this process or to simply be
frustration at finding many subject to it. As Naomi Klein has argued in her book Shock
expectations dashed.” Doctrine, this insight has until now mostly
– Richard Heinberg (2008), been used to advance cultural stories that
‘Losing Control’, Post Carbon
Institute
benefit a few at the expense of many. Astyk
contends, however, that there is no reason
why, as understanding continues to spread, we
could not grasp the next ‘threshold moment’
and build a dominant narrative linking it to
the energy and climate context (to which
it will almost inevitably be related), and
explaining how this demands changes in our
own attitudes and lifestyles.9
As we now look to our future, there are
clearly a vast number of possibilities, but the
The powerful cultural story that ‘real change concept of stories can help us to make some
is impossible’ makes it seem inevitable that sense of it all. Here we will examine four
current trends will continue inexorably on, yet visions of how our near-future could look, in
in reality cultural stories are always shifting the full awareness that the stories we tell here
and changing, often subtly, but sometimes are themselves helping to shape the future that
dramatically. Given their importance, then, we will come to pass.
Why cultural stories matter 23
Visions of the future – looking to 2027
Ignoring evidence Acknowledging challenges
1Denial 2Hitting The Wall

Business As Usual
(BAU)
3The Impossible 4The Transition

Cultural shift
Dream Vision
The first vision considers the continuation of present and future. Here we see a ‘cultural “If you don’t know where
the ‘business as usual, things can’t really be that tipping point’ as the evidence of our eyes you’re going, you’ll wind up
bad’ perspective that is perhaps still dominant and hearts overthrows the dominant story of someplace else.”
– Yogi Berra
at this time, and where it is likely to lead us. ‘business as usual’ and replaces it with a story
In this vision the accumulating evidence on of taking deep satisfaction in repairing earlier
energy resource depletion and climate change mistakes, and a responsible focus on ensuring
is largely ignored. I have called this vision of a long-term resilient future. Nonetheless, in
the future Denial. this vision we fail to acknowledge the scale of
Our second vision of the future explores our energy and climate challenges, meaning
what might happen if we collectively accept that while we may appear to be building a
the challenging evidence emerging on brighter future we are in essence living an
resource depletion and climate change, but Impossible Dream.
continue working to address it through a Our final vision of the future is the one on
business-as-usual mindset. We consider which we will be focusing. Here we make the
what happens when ‘politically realistic’ same kind of cultural shift as in vision #3, but
actions and scientific reality collide. I have with full regard to the overwhelming urgency
called it Hitting The Wall. of the ‘Peak Climate’ situation. I have called
Our third vision documents a radical this The Transition Vision and it will be
change in the cultural stories shaping our examined in more detail in Part Two.

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THE TRANSITION TIMELINE

world and ourselves.”

Ken Deffeyes, Princeton professor 2005

Colin Campbell, former oil company geologist 2010

and the introduction of new technology and alternative energy sources.

Jean Laherrere, oil company geophysicist 2010—2020

Thierry Desmarest, CEO, Total 2020

Shell Oil After 2025

Shaun Chamberlin UNCONVENTIONAL OIL

“A book of hopeful realism, making clear that the future

“The work of the Transition Towns movement is incredibly important.”

Chelsea Green Publishing

Copyright © 2009 by Shaun Chamberlin. All rights reserved.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Chelsea Green Publishing made this paper

The timeline of $147 in July 2008, $40 by February 2009) is

“If a picture is worth one

Photo source: istockphoto.

Climate change – a summary

Cultural stories and

Why cultural stories matter

“When people treat, say, fizzy

Ignoring evidence Acknowledging challenges

1Denial 2Hitting The Wall

3The Impossible 4The Transition

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