DB Corp, 1Q FY 2014
DB Corp, 1Q FY 2014
DB Corp, 1Q FY 2014
DB Corp
Performance Highlights
Quarterly Results (Consolidated)
(` cr) Revenue EBITDA OPM (%) PAT 1QFY14 449 133 29.6 76 1QFY14 377 79 20.8 44 % yoy 19.2 69.1 873bp 74.1 4QFY13 398 94 23.6 55 % qoq 12.9 41.4 596bp 37.8
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Media 4,543 (38) 0.4 267/181 22,110 10 20,128 6,038 DBCL.BO DBCL@IN
`248 `302
12 Months
For 1QFY2014, DB Corp (DBCL) reported a robust top-line and bottom-line performance, beating our expectations as well as street estimates. Its top-line grew 19.2% yoy to `449cr, primarily due to a robust 20.4% yoy growth in advertising revenue to `325cr (mainly driven by higher yields). Sectors such as lifestyle, education, automobile, FMCG and real-estate have contributed to strong growth in advertising revenues. The company also reported a strong 16.9% yoy growth in circulation revenue to `77cr. Among the other segments, the companys radio business reported a robust advertising revenue growth of 22.1% yoy to `17cr. Strong operational performance: At the operating level, the EBITDA grew by 69.1% yoy to `133cr, aided by strong performance of mature editions, reduction in losses of emerging editions as well as cost rationalization measures such as improving ad edit ratio, and pagination efficiency, among others. Mature editions reported a 573bp yoy margin expansion to 36%. Losses in emerging editions stood at `5.8cr in 1QFY2014 compared to `12.1cr in 1QFY2013. Consequently, the OPM expanded by 873bp yoy to 29.6% and net profit grew by 74.1% yoy to `76cr. Akola edition launched, Amravati edition in August: DBCL has launched an Akola edition and is expected to launch an Amravati edition in August. The Management is bullish on the advertising market (especially local advertising) in Maharashtra. Therefore, it is also considering more launches in other tier-2 cities such as Nanded and Latur. Outlook and valuation: At the current market price, DBCL is trading at 14.4x FY2015E consolidated EPS of `17.2. We maintain our Buy view on the stock with a revised target price of `302, based on 17.5x FY2015E EPS, benchmarking it to our print media sector valuations (which are at ~15% premium to our Sensex target valuation multiple). The downside risks to our estimates include 1) sharp rise in newsprint prices in INR terms, and 2) higher-than-expected losses/increase in the breakeven period of the new launches.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 75.0 5.3 14.8 4.9
3m 7.5 12.6
1QFY14 449 142 31.6 100 22.3 74 16.6 317 133 29.6 2 16 5 119 26.5 43 36.1 0 76 17 0 76 18.3 4.2
1QFY13 377 133 35.3 97 25.8 68 18.1 298 79 20.8 4 14 5 66 17.5 22 33.7 0 44 12 0 44 18.3 2.4
% yoy 19.2 6.7 3.1 9.1 6.1 69.1 (33.3) 16.7 (1.2) 80.8 93.7
4QFY13 398 134 33.6 101 25.4 69 17.4 304 94 23.6 2 15 9 86 21.6 31 35.7 0
% qoq 12.9 6.3 (1.2) 7.5 4.1 41.4 14.8 4.4 (50.9) 38.7 40.3
FY2013 1,592 545 34.2 392 24.6 280 17.6 1,216 376 23.6 8 58 21 331 20.8 113 34.2 0
FY2012 1,451 508 35.0 364 25.1 243 16.7 1,115 336 23.2 9 51 24 301 20.7 98 32.7 (0) 202 14 202 18.3 11.0
74.1
55 14 0
37.8
218 14 0
8.0
74.1 74.1
55 18.3 3.0
37.7 37.8
8.0 8.0
12.7
19.2
50 -
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
( ` cr)
( ` cr)
150 100
5.0
271
275
287
263
270
283
318
298
57
60
63
62
66
70
73
73
77
50 -
325
(5.0)
(%)
10.0
2.0 -
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
(%)
200
1Q14
449
100
10.0
( ` cr)
(%)
60
15.0
(27.4)
108.5
40
10.0
114
123
92
96
93
20
141
5.0 -
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
EBITDA
OPM
1Q14
EBITDA
OPM
( ` cr)
(%)
28.1 19.8
24.1
20.6
20.8
22.8
27.2
23.6
29.6
30 20 10 -
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
Gross Margin
OPM
NPM (RHS)
1Q14
(%)
40
1Q14
10.0
(%)
80
20.0
( ` cr)
(21.9)
Investment rationale
Well-planned aggression in business edges DBCL over peers: DBCL, though a dominant No. 2 player in the overall regional print space (trailing behind Jagran Prakashan), enjoys a premium valuation to its peers - Jagran Prakashan (flagship daily Dainik Jagran) and Hindustan Media Ventures (flagship daily Hindustan). We attribute the reason for this trend to DBCLs business model (which is primarily driven by ad revenue) and well thought-out launches in new markets. We believe the companys continuous endeavor to diversify its print business coupled with aggressive expansion into new markets (urban towns beyond metros) backed by exhaustive market research and focus on achieving leadership are the key factors differentiating the company from its peers. The company has been successful in executing its expansion plans with launches in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.
Jun-11
Jun-10
Jun-12
Aug-10
Aug-12
Aug-11
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Feb-11
Feb-12
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Dec-10
Company Background
DB Corp is one of the largest print media companies in India that publishes 8 newspapers with 65 editions, and 199 sub editions in 4 multiple languages across 13 states in India. The companys flagship newspaper Dainik Bhaskar, Divya Bhaskar and Saurashtra Samachar have a combined average daily readership of ~19 million, making them one of the most widely read newspaper groups in India with presence in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Chandigarh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttrakhand, Delhi, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Jammu. The companys other noteworthy newspaper brands are Dainik Divya Marathi, Business Bhaskar, DB Gold, DB Star and DNA on a franchise basis.
Dec-11
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E 1,058 1,058 1,058 10.4 720 328 249 132 12 338 133.8 31.9 38 300 159.7 28.4 25 5 1.9 281 258.9 0 280 106 37.6 175 (8) 183 183 283.5 17.3 10.1 10.0 283.9 1,260 1,260 1,260 19.1 862 383 279 185 16 398 17.7 31.5 43 354 18.1 28.1 15 19 5.4 359 27.9 2 357 98 27.4 259 0.3 259 260 42.2 20.6 14.1 14.1 41.4 1,451 1,451 1,451 15.2 1,115 508 350 243 15 336 (15.4) 23.2 51 286 (19.3) 19.7 9 24 8.0 301 (16.2) 301 98 32.7 202 0 202 202 (22.3) 13.9 11.0 11.0 (21.8) 1,592 1,592 1,592 9.7 1,216 545 380 280 12 376 11.7 23.6 58 318 11.1 19.9 8 21 6.4 331 10.1 331 113 34.2 218 (0) 218 218 7.9 13.7 11.9 11.9 7.9 1,783 1,783 1,783 12.0 1,333 592 415 308 17 450 19.8 25.2 64 386 21.6 21.7 8 20 4.9 398 20.3 398 131 33.0 267 267 267 22.4 15.0 14.5 14.5 22.4 1,968 1,968 1,968 10.4 1,442 625 459 341 17 527 17.0 26.8 70 456 18.1 23.2 6 22 4.6 472 18.5 472 156 33.0 316 316 316 18.5 16.1 17.2 17.2 18.5
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 182 1 466 649 4 321 61 183 3 643 829 0 172 69 26 3 1,035 660 112 547 61 39 21 561 193 103 266 207 354 13 1,035 1,100 783 149 634 41 33 16 63 557 173 71 313 255 302 10 1,100 183 5 739 927 2 180 75 30 3 1,216 906 191 715 45 33 46 87 610 188 54 367 329 280 9 1,216
FY2013 183 5 840 1,029 1 137 83 33 3 1,287 1,001 238 763 7 68 81 85 622 128 56 438 346 276 6 1,287
FY2014E 183 5 1,016 1,204 1 127 83 33 3 1,452 1,100 302 799 11 68 106 99 726 212 79 435 367 359 9 1,452
FY2015E 183 5 1,225 1,413 1 97 83 33 3 1,631 1,215 372 843 12 68 128 99 859 281 98 480 378 481 1,631
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 281 38 (14) 25 101 2 229 (38) 3 (34) 251 (242) 42 13 (48) 147 45 193 359 43 (24) 15 98 0 295 (103) 4.22 (99) 2 (149) 69 1 (216) (20) 193 173 301 51 (21) 9 98 26 268 (127) (29.7) (157) 0.55 8 107 (2) (96) 16 173 188
FY2013 331 58 (25) 8 113 (38) 221 (92) (34.7) (127) 1.36 (43) 118 (4) (155) (61) 188 128
FY2014E 398 64 (13) 8 131 0 326 (103) (25.0) (128) (10) 107 (4) (113) 84 128 212
FY2015E 472 70 (54) 6 156 0 338 (116) (22.0) (138) (30) 107 (6) (132) 69 212 281
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.)
previous year numbers
FY2010 24.8 20.4 6.9 0.8 4.4 13.8 4.5 10.1 10.0 12.2 2.0 35.7 28.4 0.6 1.3 22.4 0.0 1.0 45.7 31.4 35.6 40.3 1.6 25 67 59 56 0.2 0.3 12.2
FY2011 FY2012 17.6 15.0 5.5 1.3 3.6 11.3 4.1 14.1 14.1 16.5 3.2 44.7 28.1 0.7 1.4 29.1 0.0 0.1 31.2 33.2 38.3 35.0 1.6 21 70 22 55 (0.0) (0.0) 23.7 22.5 18.0 4.9 2.0 3.1 13.2 3.7 11.0 11.0 13.8 5.0 50.1 19.7 0.7 1.5 19.7 0.0 (0.0) 19.0 24.7 27.9 23.0 1.6 30 62 27 44 (0.1) (0.2) 31.0
FY2013 FY2014E 20.8 16.5 4.4 2.2 2.8 11.9 3.5 11.9 11.9 15.1 5.5 55.8 19.9 0.7 1.5 19.2 0.0 (0.1) 18.0 25.4 27.5 22.3 1.6 30 63 22 53 (0.1) (0.2) 40.2 17.0 13.7 3.8 2.0 2.4 9.7 3.0 14.5 14.5 18.0 5.0 65.2 21.7 0.7 1.5 21.6 0.0 (0.1) 19.2 28.3 31.2 23.9 1.6 26 63 25 50 (0.2) (0.4) 50.6
FY2015E 14.4 11.7 3.2 2.0 2.2 8.1 2.6 17.2 17.2 21.1 5.0 77.1 23.2 0.7 1.5 23.7 0.0 (0.2) 19.2 29.7 33.9 24.2 1.6 26 63 24 55 (0.2) (0.6) 78.1
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
10
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
DB Corp. No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
11