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    C.B. Worth - "Money in Motion"

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    "We have no new thoughts. Sell."

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    C.B. Worth - "Money in Motion"

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    DealBook
    21K views24 pages
    "We have no new thoughts. Sell."

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    "We have no new thoughts. Sell."

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    21K views24 pages

    C.B. Worth - "Money in Motion"

    Uploaded by

    DealBook
    "We have no new thoughts. Sell."

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
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    MONEY IN MOTION TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & RESEARCH

    A division of Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. June 24, 2013

    C.B. Worth Money In Motion


    We have no new thoughts. Sell.

    The charts on the pages that follow speak for themselves.

    Of course, we believe the charts have been speaking for themselves for quite some timeas all will know. Our position is clear. At some point there is no point in saying anything more. To that end, last week, we wrote nothing. Literally. There was no "Money in Motion" (first time in years). Today's piece, again by saying nothing, speaks for itself, speaks for its author.

    Carter Braxton Worth Chief Market Technician (212) 667-4324 [email protected]

    Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. 200 Park Avenue New York, NY 10166 Tel: 800-221-5588 Fax: 212-667-4959

    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

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    Lumber

    Brent Crude Oil

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    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

    Australia Stock Exchange

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    Trade well, -Carter

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    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

    Appendix: The "duel" between AAPL and the SPX. As stated in the January 28th edition of "Money in Motion" when this trade was first recommended: "Money in Motion", January 28, 2013 "At this point, with AAPL having almost closed its January 25th 2012 gap of exactly a year ago, we think risk/reward is favorable on an outright basis AND relative to equities in general, which, as measured by the S&P 500, are quite extended day-to-day (the entire thrust of today's piece). As to a price objective for AAPL, we would play for a move back to $525+/- or some 20% higher from Friday's close. And if one is thinking the SPX is going to appreciate 20% from here in the coming 6-9 months we would recommend seeking immediate medical attention." At the time AAPL was trading at $439.88 and the S&P 500 stood at 1502.96. And since the time of the trade AAPL and the SPX have traded places a few times (as seen in the comparative chart below). Right out of the gate, AAPL took the lead and was 900 basis points ahead of the market in the second week of February when the stock surged to $485. By March 1st, AAPL had given back all of its leadand then some with the SPX some 600 bp ahead of AAPL. As of last week's close, AAPL is $413.50 (-6.0%) and the SPX is 1592.43 (+6.0%). It remains our view that AAPL is the better bet of the two. To that end, we will feature this "AAPL / SPX" update each Monday until there is a "winner" (read: when one instrument has outpaced the other by 2,000 basis points (20%) as measured from the start point of Friday, February 25th (closing prices). Stay tuned.

    Source: Oppenheimer Asset Mgmt and Thomson Reuters

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    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

    Important Disclosure Footnotes for Companies Mentioned in this Report that Are Covered by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc:
    Stock Prices as of June 24, 2013

    Apple Inc. (AAPL - NASDAQ, $413.50, OUTPERFORM)

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    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

    Important Disclosures and Certifications


    The research provided in this report is based on technical analysis provided by Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc., a non member affiliate of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Technical analysis is the study of price and volume and the interpretation of trading patterns associated with such studies in an attempt to project future price movements. Technical analysis does not consider the fundamentals of the underlying corporate issuer and may offer an investment view that may appear inconsistent with other research generated by Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. This report does not constitute research regarding fundamental financial information. The investments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should use technical analysis as one input into formulating an investment opinion and should consult with their Financial Advisor. Additional inputs should include, but are not limited to, the review of other research reports generated by Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc., and looking at the fundamentals of the underlying corporate issuer. Analyst Certification - The author certifies that this research report accurately states his/her personal views about the subject securities, which are reflected in the substance of this report. The author certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. Potential Conflicts of Interest: Technical analysts employed by Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. are compensated from revenues generated by the firm. Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. generally prohibits any research analyst and any member of his or her household from executing trades in the securities of a company that such research analyst covers. Additionally, Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. generally prohibits any research analyst from serving as an officer, director or advisory board member of a company that such analyst covers. In addition to 1% ownership positions in covered companies that are required to be specifically disclosed in this report, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. may have a long position of less than 1% or a short position or deal as principal in the securities discussed herein, related securities or in options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon. Recipients of this report are advised that any or all of the foregoing arrangements, as well as more specific disclosures set forth below, may at times give rise to potential conflicts of interest. Third Party Research Disclosure Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. has a research sharing agreement with Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. to provide third-party research services to Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. customers. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. does not guarantee that the information supplied is accurate, complete or timely, nor does Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. make any warranties with regard to the research product or the results obtained from its use. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. has no control over or input with respect to Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. research opinions. Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. is a non-member affiliate of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.

    Company Specific Disclosures


    Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. makes a market in the securities of AAPL. Additional Information Please write to Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc., 200 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10166. Attention: Compliance Department. Other Disclosures This report is issued and approved by Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc, a registered investment advisor, to its affiliate Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., a member of all Principal Exchanges, and SIPC. This report may be further distributed by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., for informational purposes only, to its institutional and retail investor clients. This report does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be prohibited. The securities mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all types of investors. This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or specific needs of any particular client of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Recipients should consider this report as only a single factor in making an investment decision and should not rely solely on investment recommendations contained herein, if any, as a substitution for the exercise of

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    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

    independent judgment of the merits and risks of investments. The analyst writing the report is not a person or company with actual, implied or apparent authority to act on behalf of any issuer mentioned in the report. Before making an investment decision with respect to any security recommended in this report, the recipient should consider whether such recommendation is appropriate given the recipient's particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. We recommend that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourage investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor. Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. will not treat non-client recipients as its clients solely by virtue of their receiving this report. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance of any security mentioned in this report. The price of the securities mentioned in this report and the income they produce may fluctuate and/or be adversely affected by exchange rates, and investors may realize losses on investments in such securities, including the loss of investment principal. Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of information contained in this report. All information, opinions and statistical data contained in this report were obtained or derived from public sources believed to be reliable, but Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. does not represent that any such information, opinion or statistical data is accurate or complete (with the exception of information contained in the Important Disclosures section of this report provided by Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. or individual research analysts), and they should not be relied upon as such. All estimates, opinions and recommendations expressed herein constitute judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice. Since the levels and bases of taxation can change, any reference in this report to the impact of taxation should not be construed as offering tax advice on the tax consequences of investments. As with any investment having potential tax implications, clients should consult with their own independent tax adviser. This report may provide addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, Internet web sites. Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. has not reviewed the linked Internet web site of any third party and takes no responsibility for the contents thereof. Each such address or hyperlink is provided solely for the recipient's convenience and information, and the content of linked third party web sites is not in any way incorporated into this document. Recipients who choose to access such third-party web sites or follow such hyperlinks do so at their own risk. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged value-weighted index of 500 common stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The S&P 500 index figures do not reflect any fees, expenses or taxes. This research is distributed in the UK and elsewhere throughout Europe, as third party research by Oppenheimer Europe Ltd, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). This research is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to purchase or sell investments or related financial instruments. This research is for distribution only to persons who are eligible counterparties or professional clients and is exempt from the general restrictions in section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 on the communication of invitations or inducements to engage in investment activity on the grounds that it is being distributed in the UK only to persons of a kind described in Article 19(5) (Investment Professionals) and 49(2) High Net Worth companies, unincorporated associations etc) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended). It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. In particular, this material is not for distribution to, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients, as defined under the rules of the FCA. Neither the FCAs protection rules nor compensation scheme may be applied. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. Copyright Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. 2013.
    This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Copyright Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. 2013.

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