MCRMPHotspots Kalimantan
MCRMPHotspots Kalimantan
MCRMPHotspots Kalimantan
May 2005
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS...................................................................................................................................... 2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................................................................... 3
PART A – SPATIAL MODELING HOTSPOTS KALIMANTAN.................................................................. 3
1. INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................................... 3
2. MATERIALS AND METHODS.................................................................................................................. 3
2.1 STUDY AREA ............................................................................................................................................. 3
2.2 DATA ......................................................................................................................................................... 4
2.2.1 Hotspots .......................................................................................................................................... 4
2.2.2 Forestry Concessions and National Parks ....................................................................................... 4
2.2.3 Land Systems .................................................................................................................................. 4
2.3 SPATIAL MODELING .................................................................................................................................. 4
2.3.1 Density Mapping............................................................................................................................. 4
2.3.2 Overlay Analysis............................................................................................................................. 4
2.4 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................ 4
3. RESULTS ...................................................................................................................................................... 5
3.1 KALIMANTAN ............................................................................................................................................ 5
3.1.1 Hotspot Density............................................................................................................................... 5
3.1.2 Tests for Independence.................................................................................................................... 8
3.2 KABUPATEN KOTAWARINGIN .................................................................................................................... 9
3.2.1 Hotspot Density............................................................................................................................... 9
3.2.2 Relation to Roads & Elevation...................................................................................................... 10
3.2.3 Roads & Elevation ........................................................................................................................ 13
4. DISCUSSION .............................................................................................................................................. 14
5. REFERENCES............................................................................................................................................ 14
ANNEX 1 – LAND SYSTEMS........................................................................................................................... 15
ANNEX 2 – FORESTRY CONCESSIONS ...................................................................................................... 18
ANNEX 3 – NATIONAL PARKS ..................................................................................................................... 28
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MCRMP-B consultants were requested to visit Sampit to assist with computer networks and software
installation and commissioning and to contribute to a training workshop designed to socialize the use
of GIS for BAPPEDA and other invited staff.
Discussions with the PIMPRO indicated that forest and peat fires were a major environmental
problem in Kabupaten Kotawaringan. In response MCRMP-B consultants analyzed hotspot data
recorded from 1999 to end of 2003 in relation to spatial density and other factors such as distance from
road and land systems. The purpose of this study was to socialize and demonstrate the use of GIS as a
powerful tool for exploring, visualizing, modeling and analyzing spatial patterns in distribution and
abundance of a phenomenon (in this case hotspots) using a real-world example of a local
environmental problem that has high negative impacts both locally and on nearby neighbors Singapore
and Malaysia. The uncontrolled destruction of forests in Kalimantan has also generated high interest
internationally because of the rapidly diminishing areas of unique tropical rainforest there.
The results of this analysis are presented in two parts: the first describes the methodology used to
analyze the data and reports the results; the second outlines step-by-step the procedures used to do the
analysis.
It is important to stress that GIS analysis itself, although interesting, is not the end product which must
usually be a report that describes and synthesizes the results of the GIS application.
PART A – SPATIAL MODELING HOTSPOTS KALIMANTAN
1. INTRODUCTION
Deforestation in tropical areas is occurring at a rapid rate and there is growing awareness that
deforestation is a global concern as shown by the outcomes of the United Nations Conference on
Environment and Development (UNCED) held at Rio de Janeiro in 1992. Indonesia has vast areas of
natural tropical forest that represents 10% of the world’s total tropical forest area. Large areas are
under private concessions who use selective cutting and planting silviculture methods to log these
areas; maps from the Department of Forestry indicate that 126 companies have concession rights to
log 10,3682 km2 in Kalimantan alone with an additional 318 plantations covering 62,896 km2. More
recently, with ongoing implementation of plans to foster regional autonomy after the economic crisis
that hit Indonesia in 1998 and subsequent “reformasi” there has been debate specifically concerning an
increase in uncontrolled legal and illegal logging because district governments can now issue their
own small forest concessions and collect some revenue.
Clearing of land using fires is used in Kalimantan to improve access for logging and developing
plantations of oil palm. The smoke arising from burn offs causes respiratory problems not only on
local populations but on communities as far away as Malaysia and Singapore. Smoke creates a hazard
for air, land and river transportation because of reduced visibility.
The purpose of this study was to map and analyze in general the spatial patterns in distribution and
abundance of hotspots in Kalimantan and then to explore these patterns in more detail for Kabupaten
Kotawaringan. Understanding and describing these patterns in distribution and abundance are
important for proper and cost effective planning for health, education, monitoring and surveillance
programs.
2.2 Data
2.2.1 Hotspots
Hotspot data was obtained from the University of Singapore who use NOAA data for mapping hotpots
in the region.
2.2.2 Forestry Concessions and National Parks
Forestry concessions and National Parks shape files were obtained from Dept. Forestry Jakarta.
2.2.3 Land Systems
Land Systems data was digitized off hardcopy maps of ReppRot circa 1970’s.
2.3 Spatial Modeling
2.3.1 Density Mapping
Point Density calculates the density of point features around each output raster cell. Conceptually, a
neighborhood is defined around each raster cell center, and the number of points that fall within the
neighborhood is totaled and divided by the area of the neighborhood.
If a Population field setting other than NONE is used, items value determines the number of times to
count the point. Thus an item value of 3 would cause the point to be counted as 3 points. The values
can be integer or floating point. If an area unit is selected, the calculated density for the cell is
multiplied by the appropriate factor before it is written to the output raster. For example, if the input
ground units are meters, comparing a unit scale factor of meters to kilometers will result in the values
being different by a multiplier of 1,000,000 (1000 x 1000).
Possible uses include finding density of houses, wildlife observations, or crime reports. The population
field could be used to weigh some points more heavily than others, depending on their meaning, or to
allow one point to represent several observations. For example, one address might represent a
condominium with 6 units, or some crimes might be weighed more severely than others in determining
overall crime levels.
Increasing the radius will not change the calculated density values very much. Although more points
will fall inside the larger neighborhood, this number will be divided by a larger area when calculating
density. The main effect of a larger radius is that density is calculated considering a larger number of
points, which can be further from the raster cell. This results in a more generalized output raster.
Two point density maps were produced: the first was for all Kalimantan and the second was for
Kabupaten Kotawaringin. To prevent edge effects a 20 km buffer was created around the Kabupatan.
For this study simple density was used with radius 10 km and raster cell size of 100 m for Kalimantan
and Kabupaten Kotawaringin. The map was classified based on standard deviations into four
categories: 0 – 1; 1 – 2; 2 – 3 and 3 – 4 using standard deviations (std). The raster map was then
converted to polygons.
2.3.2 Overlay Analysis
Forestry concessions, national parks and land systems were overlain with the reclassified point density
map. Area estimates for all combinations were calculated and presented as percentages of the total.
2.4 Statistical Analysis
Each polygon for national parks, forestry concessions and land systems belonged to a category. Each
hotspot was spatially joined to the polygon it fell within and a sum was kept of the total number of
hotspots in each polygon.
The feature class was next exported to an Excel workbook where a Chi-squared test was used to test
for statistical independence. In this case the independence test was that hotspots were randomly
distributed.
where:
Aij = actual frequency in the i-th row, j-th column
Eij = expected frequency in the i-th row, j-th column
r = number or rows
c = number of columns
• A low value of c2 is an indicator of independence. As can be seen from the formula, c2 is always
positive or 0, and is 0 only if Aij = Eij for every i,j.
• CHITEST returns the probability that a value of the c2 statistic at least as high as the value
calculated by the above formula could have happened by chance under the assumption of
independence. In computing this probability, CHITEST uses the c2 distribution with an
appropriate number of degrees of freedom, df. If r > 1 and c > 1, then df = (r - 1)(c - 1). If r = 1
and c > 1, then df = c - 1 or if r > 1 and c = 1, then df = r - 1. r = c= 1 is not allowed and #N/A is
returned.
3. RESULTS
3.1 Kalimantan
3.1.1 Hotspot Density
There was a total of 32,855 hotspots recorded in Kalimantan from 10-Jan-1999 to 21-Dec-2003
(Figure 1). Visual inspection and point density mapping indicated that most hotspots were located in
southern and north western Kalimantan (Figure 2 & 3).
Figure 1. Elevation, National Parks and Hotspots of Kalimantan recorded from 1999 to end 2003. Blue
hatching: national parks. Red dots: hotspots; cyan: Kabupaten Kotawaringan
Figure 2. Hotspot point density West Kalimantan. Green: 0 – 1; Orange: 1 – 2; and Red: 2 – 3 standard
deviations.
Figure 3. Hotspot density shown as base heights overlaying land systems of Kalimantan.
National Parks
With few exceptions national parks had lower than expected hotspots (P < 0.0001) (Annex 3). In a
couple of cases the observed number of hotspots was higher than expected.
3.2 Kabupaten Kotawaringin
3.2.1 Hotspot Density
A total of 4,463 hotspots were recorded over the 1999 to 2003 time interval in Kabupaten
Kotawaringin; this represented more than a tenth (13.58%) of the total number of hotspots recorded in
Kalimantan for that time period (Figure 4). In contrast the area of Kabupaten Kotawaringin, 15,886
km2 was less than 3% (2.96%) of the total area, 536,865 km2, of Kalimantan.
The hotspots that fell within Kabupaten Kotawaringin were selected from the hotspots of Kalimantan
and point density calculated using a 5 km radius and 50 m raster cell size. The resulting map was
reclassified into 4 categories based on standard deviations (1 – 4 standard deviations). This more
detailed modeling indicated that anomalously high areas of hotpots occurred in all Kecematan within
Kabupaten Kotawaringin.
The density mapping resulted in well over half (56.73%) the hotspots being located in 15.84% of the
study area (Table 1). When the second standard deviation category was included then 83% of hotspots
were within one third (32.5%) the study area.
Table 1. Hotspots and density mapping
Two thirds (63.61%) of the hotspots were located within 10 km of the nearest road which was half the
total study area (49.8%) (Table 2). In contrast one percent (0.69%) were located more than 40 km
away from the nearest road.
Table 2. Breakdown of number of hotspots with distance from road
Elevation
There was a strong relationship between the number of hotspots and elevation (Figure 7 & 8).
The density of hotspots (0.2309) was highest for elevations between 25 and 50 m and over half the
hotspots (52.33%) occurred in this elevation range (Table 3). The hotspot density decreased rapidly
after this such that elevations greater than 100 m had less than 2% of the hotspots.
HOTSPOT
NO. HOTSPOT HOTSPOT PER SQ AREA SQ AREA AREA
ELEV. (M) HOTSPOTS %TOTAL CUM% KM KM %TOTAL CUM%
ELEVATION
(M) KM %TOTAL CUM %
4. DISCUSSION
Simple GIS analysis of patterns in distribution and abundance of hotspots in Kalimantan from 1999 to
2003 was useful for exploring relationships between hotspots and proximity to roads, elevation, land
systems, forestry concessions and national parks.
Overlay visualization of hotspots, national parks and elevation clearly showed that few hotspots were
located in mountainous areas where most of the area of national parks occurred.
The relationship between forestry concessions and hotspots was not simple but must be analyzed on a
concession-by-concession and location-by-location basis since some forestry concession areas had
higher than expected hotspots and many other had lower than expected hotspots.
All comparisons and conclusions, however, must be tempered with the fact that the number of
hotspots in Kalimantan is unnaturally high. Further research is required to estimate what the
background natural density of hotspots should be for Kalimantan; fires caused mainly by lightning or
accident.
At a more detailed level of analysis for Kabupaten Kotawaringan hotspot density was highest in the
buffer area 5 – 10 km away from roads and not immediately adjacent roads in the 0 – 5 km buffer
zone. Why this is so remains unclear, however, it is highly likely that not all roads were digitized since
most of the roads in the study area were digitized using Landsat 7 ETM+ satellite imagery with 30 m
pixels. Roads may have been missed because they were not visible in the imagery or clouds obscured
the roads. Alternately clearing using burning may be occurring away from roads because areas
adjacent roads have already been cleared and small access roads were not visible in the imagery.
Regardless, the relationship between hotspots and proximity to roads remains unresolved and requires
further research.
The vast majority of hotspots (98%) occurred in low areas less than 100 m elevation. This correlates
strongly with the length of road in these areas with 94% of roads situated less than 100 m.
The high correlation of hot spots with proximity to roads underlines the importance roads and hence
access by humans plays in explaining the patterns of distribution and abundance of hotspots in
Kabupaten Kotawaringan.
Density mapping resulted in well over half (56.73%) the hotspots being located in 15.84% of the study
area. When the second standard deviation category was included then 83% of hotspots were within
one third (32.5%) the study area. This information can be used to tailor health, education, surveillance
and monitoring programs to target areas worst affected and with highest hotspots.
5. REFERENCES
Silverman, B.W. Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis. New York: Chapman and Hall,
1986.
Table 5. Land System categories, number of hotspots, area (km2), hotspots km2 and expected number of
hotspots under an assumption of independence. Categories with high departures of observed from
expected are shown in italics.
EXPECTED HOTSPOTS
NO. NO. AREA SQ PER SQ
LAND SYSTEM DESCRIPTION HOTSPOTS HOTSPOTS KM KM
Dissected volcanic cones with radial drainage pattern 10 102 1,664.51 0.006008
Hills with moderately steep dip and steep scarp slopes 21 162 2,642.14 0.007948
Inter-tidal mudflats under mangrove and nipah 253 648 10,539.71 0.024004
Linear, sedimentary ridge systems with steep dip slopes 72 203 3,303.81 0.021793
Meander belt or large river with broad levees 79 128 2,086.33 0.037866
Meander belts within very wide river floodplains 89 160 2,599.52 0.034237
Mountainous sandstone cuestas with dissected dip slopes 28 293 4,768.52 0.005872
Undulating plains (PO2) with several wide valleys 963 524 8,518.17 0.113052
Undulating plains with several wide valleys 227 204 3,322.71 0.068318
Weakly orientated, non sedimentary mountain ridge systems 44 1,058 17,203.14 0.002558
AREA HOTSPOTS
NO. EXPECTED SQ PER SQ
FORESTRY CONCESSION HOTSPOTS HOTSPOTS KM KM
PT.INHUTANI I/PT.POROSIDA
TRADING 2 68.0 1,105 0.00181
PT.INDONESIA MERANTI
TIMBER 3 22.5 365 0.008209
PT.OCEANIAS TIMBER
PRODUCT 3 128.2 2,084 0.001439
SEJAHTERA
PT.BALIKPAPAN FORREST
INDUSTRIES 25 141.1 2,294 0.010898
PT.TELAGA MAS
KALIMANTAN COMPANY 26 61.4 998 0.02606
PT.INHUTANI I (Ex.
PT.SANGKULIRANG) 27 61.7 1,003 0.026908
PT.SENTOSA KALIMANTAN
JAYA 57 20.0 325 0.175256
PT.INH III(EX.PT.KATINGAN
TMB) 71 83.7 1,361 0.052165
PT.DHARMA SATYA
NUSANTARA 87 127.7 2,077 0.041897
PT.MERATUS KALIMANTAN
TIMBER 87 58.2 947 0.091866
PT.TABALAR WOOD
INDUSTRIES 0 40.8 663 0
PT.TWI 0 1.0 16 0
Table 7. National Parks, number of hotspots, area sq km, Hotspots per sq km, and expected number of
hotspots under spatial independence.