Total Exposure: Market Analysis

Total Exposure
March 2012 Issue 7
Special points of interest:

Market Analysis (page 1) March Madness (page 2) 40th Annual St. Patricks Day Parade (page 3) Kansas City: a Hotbed of High Culture (page 3) Want your project done right? Give us a call (page 4)
Market Analysis by Gary Seaton Jr.
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) (above), compiled by the American Institute of Architects (AIA), represents demand for design services in the United States during a given month. The ABI is widely accepted as the leading economic indicator of construction activity. In theory, we expect to see the impact of a respective ABI figure roughly 12 months in advance on construction spending. Thus, the expected construction spending graph below is simply the ABI graph shifted to the right by one year. Any score above 50 indicates an increase in demand while a score below 50 reflects contraction. In January of 2012, the AIA reported an ABI score of 50.9, marking the third consecutive score above 50 (ABI score of 52 in both November and December of 2011). While three positive ABI scores in a row is encouraging, AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, explains, Because we still continue to hear about struggling firms and some continued uncertainty in the market, we expect overall economic improvements in the design and construction sector to be modest in the coming months.
Expected Construction Spending

54 52
>50 = Expansion <50 = Contraction
ABI 50 Scores
48 46 44 42 40
Dec11
Aug11
Aug12
Dec12
Oct11
Apr11
Apr12
Oct12
Nov11
May11
May12
Mar12
Mar11
As illustrated above, construction firms can expect difficult market conditions throughout the spring, indicated by low ABI scores in the spring of 2011. However, construction spending is expected to improve significantly towards the end of summer and beginning of fall.
Nov12
Jan11
Jan12
Feb11
Sep11
Feb12
Sep12
Jun12
Jun11
Jan13
Jul11
Jul12
March Madness Preview

By: Gary Seaton, Jr.
Total Exposure is back in 2012 to assist our friends in filling out March Madness brackets. While a surplus of analysis exists on television and the internet, we highlight three critical statistics: First, I calculated Garys Recruiting Rankings, which reflect how well each school has recruited in recent years. I identified seven players on each team that average the most minutes played and evaluated how highly coveted they were as high school recruits. This year, we utilized recruiting rankings complied by ESPNU, which ranks high school seniors on a scale from 100 to 40, with 100 being the most elite talent. Garys Recruiting Rankings equals the average ESPNU rating of the seven players which average the most minutes played throughout the season. Secondly, we list scoring margin (average margin of victory), which indicates how comfortably each team won throughout the season. Often considered a good predictor of success in March, ESPNs Jay Bilas believes that if you only use one statistic to make your picks, use scoring margin. 11 of the last 13 NCAA Tournament Champions have had at least a +14 scoring margin. Lastly, I recorded the number of players each team has projected to be selected in the 2012 NBA Draft, according to nbadraft.net. Observation: Michigan State is the only number one seed whose recruiting rankings fall in the 80s. Of the four one seeds, the Spartans may be most vulnerable to an upset. Georgetowns 93.5 average recruiting ranking indicates a wealth of talent in D.C., potentially setting the stage for a matchup of heavyweights in the round of 16 with Kansas. Dukes scoring margin of only 9.1 is underwhelming considering the Blue Devils are a two seed. While five seeds Wichita State and New Mexico boast high scoring margin figures, keep in mind that these schools play in non-power conferences (Missouri Valley and Mountain West respectively). Kentuckys 6 projected NBA Draft picks is unheard of! Coach John Calipari has built a well-oiled machine in Lexington where the Wildcats have dominated the SEC in recent years. Sportsbooks in Las Vegas favor Kentucky to win the National Championship at odds of 8 to 5 or 63%. Speaking of Vegas, dont forget to utilize point spreads and futures odds to help you fill out your bracket; remember, these handicappers are professionals. Good luck!
Kentucky Syracuse UNC Michigan St. Duke Ohio State Kansas Missouri Baylor Florida St. Georgetown Marquette Indiana Wisconsin Michigan Louisville Wichita St. Vanderbilt Temple New Mexico
Ave. Recruiting Rankings 97 93.5 96.5 84.6 94.6 95 82.5 81.3 82.3 84.8 93.5 86 91 75 74.7 91 50 85 77 73
Scoring Margin 17.7 14.2 15.1 13 9.1 15.7 13.1 14.6 9 7.4 9.3 9.7 11.7 11 4.5 7.7 14.2 7.9 6.1 12.9
# of projected NBA Draft Picks 6 2 4 1 2 2 3 1 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1
Happy St. Patricks Day 2012

Dont miss Kansas Citys 40th Annual St. Patricks Day Parade on March 17th (St. Patricks Day) from 11:30 to 1:30. The parade will take place on Broadway, beginning at 33rd (Linwood) and ending at 43rd Street in Westport. This years Grand Marshall is Kathy Quinn from Fox 4
Page 3
Visit Irish Roots Caf Online

--
Kansas City Earns Worldwide Acclaim

In January of 2012, Frommers Budget Travel magazine named Kansas City one of its Top Budget Travel Destinations. The author, Nicole Freshee, even refers to Kansas City as a hotbed of high culture. So much for being just a cow town; heres to you Kansas City, cheers!
Support the Home Team Buy Local

total interiors
thegymkc.com
total interiors
110 Greystone Ave. Kansas City, KS 66103
P: 913.621.2844 F: 913.621.6222 Email:

[email protected]
Family Owned and Operated; Excellence in Building Since 1974.
Since 1974, Total Interiors has been an integral part of the commercial construction industry in Kansas City and beyond. Whether the project is a major new construction or a small remodel, our focus is always on quality and timely performance. Our professional office and field staff collaborate to provide a cohesive effort, constantly striving for customer satisfaction. We have successfully been involved with many of the areas highest profile projects and have developed a reputation that affords us a loyal customer base. Trust Total Interiors to perform at the highest level on your next project as so many have in the past.
Back row, left to right: Jim Beebe, Gary Seaton, Jr., Paul Huckabey, Vic Read, and Gary Seaton Front row, left to right: Steve Jackson, Jeromy Suman, and Darin Engle

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Total Exposure

March 2012 Issue 7

Special points of interest:

Market Analysis by Gary Seaton Jr.

Expected Construction Spending

March Madness Preview

# of projected NBA Draft Picks 6 2 4 1 2 2 3 1 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1

Happy St. Patricks Day 2012

Visit Irish Roots Caf Online

Kansas City Earns Worldwide Acclaim

Support the Home Team Buy Local

P: 913.621.2844 F: 913.621.6222 Email:

Family Owned and Operated; Excellence in Building Since 1974.

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