Financial Modelling
Financial Modelling
Financial Modelling
Preference Dividend
Equity Dividend (%)
EPS before Minority Interest (Unit Curr.)
EPS before Minority Interest (Adj) (Unit Curr.)
EPS after Minority Interest (Unit Curr.)
EPS after Minority Interest (Adj) (Unit Curr.)
Book Value (Unit Curr.)
Dep/PBIT(%)
Avg A52
0
425
15.34
8.29
15.33
8.29
34.25
0
325
10.18
0
250
39
0
400
53.16
10.19
39.04
56.61
27.29
118.38
301.95
28.816894
2,384.24
116.59
2,267.65
35.21
43.47
2,346.33
1,676.52
41
126.25
198.45
390.23
106.26
0
2,538.71
275.98
18.6
257.38
39.36
0
218.02
35.92
6.8
-1.21
176.51
-0.89
0.04
177.44
12.15
165.29
0
14.62
0
177.44
14.62
43
1,500.25
24.44
79.26
194.82
318.5
75.01
0
2,192.28
154.05
11.75
142.3
25.96
0
116.34
8.92
5.22
-2.93
105.13
0
0
105.13
5.51
99.62
0
11.34
0
101.85
14.62
35.83
0
180
70.82
0
150
41.46
71.21
41.46
289.76
239.43
16.6342659 20.2669998
158.0178
Year
Networth
Capital Employed
Gross Block
Net Working Capital ( Incl. Def. Tax)
Current Assets ( Incl. Def. Tax)
Current Liabilities and Provisions ( Incl. Def. Tax)
Total Assets/Liabilities (excl Reval & W.off)
Gross Sales
Net Sales
Other Income
Value Of Output
Cost of Production
Selling Cost
PBIDT
PBDT
PBIT
PBT
PAT
CP
Revenue earnings in forex
Revenue expenses in forex
Capital earnings in forex
Capital expenses in forex
Book Value (Unit Curr)
Market Capitalisation
CEPS (annualised) (Unit Curr)
EPS (annualised) (Unit Curr)
Dividend (annualised%)
Payout (%)
Cash Flow From Operating Activities
Cash Flow From Investing Activities
Cash Flow From Financing Activities
Rate of Growth (%)
ROG-Net Worth (%)
ROG-Capital Employed (%)
ROG-Gross Block (%)
ROG-Gross Sales (%)
ROG-Net Sales (%)
ROG-Cost of Production (%)
ROG-Total Assets (%)
ROG-PBIDT (%)
ROG-PBDT (%)
ROG-PBIT (%)
ROG-PBT (%)
Mar 12(12)
Mar 11(12)
Mar 10(12)
520.04
451.3
396.25
1091.27
1021.41
825.86
677.36
593.56
547.83
66.37
6.76
43.75
671.12
490.71
570.07
604.75
483.95
526.32
1696.02
1505.36
1352.18
5032.81
4255.79
3426.64
4974.19
4223.52
3403.46
58.53
48.92
50.83
4978.98
4241.41
3424.81
3865.73
3337.28
2665.48
696.88
591.24
512.42
337.76
280.4
166.41
299.69
242.65
158.2
290.44
235.81
128.87
252.37
198.06
120.66
186.74
145.29
116.51
234.06
189.88
154.05
70.89
51.54
40.85
17.11
102.57
66.78
0
0
0
2.21
4.74
0.21
43.54
37.78
165.86
7077.41
4426.22
3821.21
18.22
14.84
60.33
14.25
11.11
44.62
425
325
250
59.63
58.51
56.04
210.66
246.32
235.29
-51.56
-156.42
-109.69
-128.55
-107.39
-184.05
15.23
6.84
14.12
18.26
17.77
15.87
12.67
20.46
23.51
23.17
27.42
13.89
23.68
8.35
24.2
24.09
25.21
11.33
68.5
53.38
82.98
64.15
-51.94
-2.81
7.1
9.03
9.36
12.4
7.26
-40.96
-40.5
-48.12
-48.08
ROG-PAT (%)
ROG-CP (%)
ROG-Revenue earnings in forex (%)
ROG-Revenue expenses in forex (%)
ROG-Market Capitalisation (%)
Key Ratios
Debt-Equity Ratio
Long Term Debt-Equity Ratio
Current Ratio
Turnover Ratios
Fixed Assets Ratio
Inventory Ratio
Debtors Ratio
Interest Cover Ratio
PBIDTM (%)
PBITM (%)
PBDTM (%)
CPM (%)
APATM (%)
ROCE (%)
RONW (%)
Debtors Velocity (Days)
Creditors Velocity (Days)
Assets Utilisation Ratio (times)
Value of Output/Total Assets
Value of Output/Gross Block
28.53
23.27
37.54
-83.32
59.9
24.7
23.26
26.17
53.59
15.83
-35.42
-27.97
-40.94
818.57
13.49
0.89
0.47
0.78
1.02
1.01
1.05
0.37
0.37
1.17
7.92
14.51
92.01
6.96
6.2
5.26
5.45
4.28
3.34
25.08
34.56
4
24
7.46
14.69
87.97
5.68
6.08
5.04
5.2
4.1
3.05
23.21
30.61
3
19
6.47
13.13
76.92
19.89
5.86
4.77
5.62
5.32
4.22
19.81
23.7
4
17
3.11
7.84
3.27
8.13
3.37
8.38
Mar 09(12)
Mar 08(12)
Mar 07(12)
824.54
755.81
614.82
849.71
861.91
619.6
511.5
453.18
392.11
116.11
207.17
59.58
553.65
577.48
400.74
437.54
370.31
341.16
1260.61
1208.99
935.18
3142.89
2616.98
2317.21
3112.21
2587.18
2197.89
84.59
54.07
36.14
3131.82
2570.13
2233.49
2371.35
1919.52
1757.49
434.73
363.2
300.34
281.87
270.95
152.45
265.86
261.22
143.55
248.41
241.87
127.18
232.4
232.14
118.28
180.4
191
107.65
213.86
220.08
132.92
69.17
11.84
14.62
7.27
4.75
8.66
0
0
0
7.04
1
2.96
345.14
316.37
257.35
3367.06
3223.12
2989.36
82.72
89.06
53.09
68.71
76.89
42.51
400
180
150
58.21
23.41
35.28
246.78
63.13
87
12.27
-130.31
59.05
-145.77
53.08
-49.07
9.09
-1.42
12.87
20.1
20.29
23.55
4.27
4.03
1.78
2.7
0.11
22.93
39.11
15.57
12.94
17.71
9.23
29.28
77.73
81.97
90.18
96.26
11.97
10.95
24.33
27.46
28.28
37.15
8.67
-32.98
-35.45
-38.19
-41.05
549.09
558.45
315.37
30.89
349.07
318.18
860.57
1817.92
1713.32
39.09
1725.63
1281.18
209.74
227.47
222.38
205.75
200.66
146.43
168.15
11.27
4.45
0
2.4
229.84
4260.66
68.28
59.19
150
25.34
64.9
-37.41
-36.17
443.52
449.66
250.35
-48.49
271.88
320.37
735.8
1615.45
1510.38
116.17
1500.66
1001.62
157.84
244.21
239.06
225.24
220.09
148.77
167.74
39.97
26.65
0
6.21
185.65
2111.16
68.25
60.31
140
23.22
196.15
26.82
-141.29
431.02
470.21
273.51
4.29
239.96
235.67
659.58
1470.53
1439.62
81.81
1452.87
1091.99
167.39
212.84
206.79
190.44
184.39
118.8
141.2
5.44
9.04
0
0.2
171.65
1569.25
54.84
45.92
110
23.61
82.59
39.47
-185.96
23.8
24.19
25.97
12.53
13.44
27.93
16.96
-6.85
-6.98
-8.65
-8.83
2.9
-4.37
-8.47
9.85
4.92
-8.26
11.56
14.74
15.61
18.27
19.36
10.19
-13.82
-1.37
9
11.1
9.83
-9.95
15.39
19.26
20.23
25.15
-5.55
-2.83
484.21
53.05
4.47
77.43
65.57
-19.02
-45.15
7.82
-26.48
-20.95
29.72
94.61
-29.84
-1.57
0.24
-71.8
-83.3
101.82
25.23
18.8
634.74
194.8
34.53
19.79
12.75
-21.73
-33.68
21.18
0.08
0.02
1.24
0.08
0
1.2
0.01
0.01
1.14
0.02
0.01
0.96
0.05
0
0.85
0.24
0.06
0.89
6.52
11.32
65.52
15.52
8.97
7.9
8.46
6.8
5.74
29.9
22.83
4
18
6.19
10.13
69.85
24.86
10.35
9.24
9.98
8.41
7.3
33.76
27.87
3
17
6.55
11.58
93.7
14.29
6.58
5.49
6.19
5.74
4.65
22.38
18.5
3
17
6.43
11.38
55.8
40.42
12.51
11.32
12.23
9.25
8.05
42.96
29.5
3
17
6.17
12.6
50.94
28.86
10.37
9.2
10.06
7.21
6.04
35.41
22.32
3
19
5.34
14.4
60.93
27.05
12.65
11.13
12.24
8.47
6.95
34.69
24.85
3
20
3.43
8.81
3.78
9.31
3.9
10.03
4.09
10.73
4.23
10.47
4.1
10.43
391.16
545.61
277.31
74.65
287.5
212.85
732.47
1349.06
1295.83
52.68
1295.47
994.45
135.42
184.46
173.4
158.4
147.34
99.17
125.23
6.95
13.63
0
0.19
151.03
1295
47.11
37.05
100
26.17
76.76
37.36
-97.49
5.77
-1.6
2.57
-7.02
-7.34
-7.52
0.76
-38
-38.75
-42.09
-43.14
-51.19
-44.88
-36.59
15.51
-10.88
0.45
0.15
0.85
4.93
17.59
50.75
11.76
11.58
9.64
10.76
7.89
5.96
24.73
21.14
3
20
4.11
10.51
3.21 avg De
0.321
Britannia
Free Cash Flow
PBIT
Tax
PAT
Depreciation & Amortization
(NWC-Change)
Capex
FCFE
WACC
Risk Free Rate(%)
Beta of Britannia
Risk Premium (%)
Cost of Equity(Ke)
Cost of Debt
Terminal Growth (%)
Discounting Model
Year
PV of FCF
Terminal Value
NPV(Value of Firm)
Value of Equity
Intrinsic Value(per Share)
(in Rs.Cr)
Mar-12 Mar-13E
290.44 319.623411
95.8452 105.475726
194.5948 214.147686
51.24906
7.934143
3.676196
234.2335
8.3
0.37
5.9
10.483
5.561
Mar-14E Mar-15E
351.7392 387.0819
116.0739 127.737
235.6652 259.3449
Mar-16E Mar-17E
425.9759 468.778
140.5721 154.6967
285.4039 314.0812
WACC
12.26808
Capital Structure
DE ratio(March 2012)
3.95
1
208.6377
6296.622
3958.156
2996.333
250.6763
2
3
4
5
6
204.511906 200.4677 196.5035 192.6177 188.8087
100.1754
15.50869
7.185778
457.8509
110.240992
17.0670028
7.90780447
503.855813
Capital Structure
0.321
7
8
185.075 181.4152
9
177.827769 1735.865
495.75
Expected CAGR
Inflation Adjustment(Long Term)
0.1175
0.078
11.953
10.05%
33%
1.265733
WC Changes
5.12
Trade & 0th receivables
-71.08
Inventories
107.54
Trade Payables
-62.7
Loans & Advances
0
Investments
0
Net Stock on Hire
0
Leased Assets Net of Sale
0
Trade Bill(s) Purchased
0
Change in Borrowing
0
Change in Deposits
-0.88
Others
-22
Total (OP before Working Capital Changes)
-17.77
-42.86
31.71
72.55
0
0
0
0
0
0
3.13
46.76
9.46
-14.71
112.77
-12.44
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
95.08
-4.36
47.9
29.55
-47.68
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25.41
-19.45
-86.59
36.37
-61.78
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-131.45
-7.76
-29.77
19.55
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5.65
-12.33
-36.09
-50.61
28.35
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-58.35
Avg WC Change
PBIT
Chnge in NWC/PBIT(%)
Avg Chnge in NWC/PBIT
0.218
290.44
235.81
128.87
248.41
-7.57471 19.82952 73.77978 10.22906
2.731767
241.87
-54.3474
127.18
-9.69492
205.75
-28.3597
2.21
4.74
0.21
7.04
1
2.716
0.760914 2.010093 0.162955 2.834024 0.413445
1.265733
2.96
2.4
2.32741 1.166464
13.45
-11.94
85.53
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
87.04
10.05
-40.32
10.11
-3.16
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-23.32
225.24
38.64323
190.44
-12.2453
6.21
0.2
2.757059
-5.16
-10.93
13.51
-2.08
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-4.66
2.18
158.4
-2.94192 27.31767
0.19
27.16
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations
1
1
-9.31323E-10
0
6
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
9
4294967295
4294967304
SS
30851.70693
0
30851.70693
Coefficients
Standard Error
Intercept
-9.09495E-13
0
Total Income
1
0
Raw Materials
6.39626E-15
0
Power & Fuel Cost
0
0
Employee Cost
0
0
Other Manufacturing Expenses 7.64274E-16
0
Selling and Administration Expenses
0
0
Miscellaneous Expenses
3.93886E-15
0
Less: Pre-operative Expenses Capitalised
0
0
Total Expenditure
-1
0
MS
3427.967437
0
t Stat
65535
65535
65535
65535
65535
65535
65535
65535
65535
65535
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
Residuals
Standard Residuals
-2.27374E-13
-9675.91161
3.97904E-13
16932.84532
1.13687E-12
48379.55805
3.41061E-13
14513.86741
4.54747E-13
19351.82322
7.38964E-13
31446.71273
1.5E-12
1E-12
5E-13
0
-5E-13
P-value
#NUM!
#NUM!
#NUM!
#NUM!
#NUM!
#NUM!
#NUM!
#NUM!
#NUM!
#NUM!
Significance F
#NUM!
Lower 95%
Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
-9.09495E-13 -9.1E-13 -9.1E-13 -9.1E-13
1
1
1
1
6.39626E-15
6.4E-15
6.4E-15
6.4E-15
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7.64274E-16 7.64E-16 7.64E-16 7.64E-16
0
0
0
0
3.93886E-15 3.94E-15 3.94E-15 3.94E-15
0
0
0
0
-1
-1
-1
-1
Operating Profit
F
#NUM!
400
300
200
100
0
0.00
1E-12
1.5E-12
5E-13
0.00 1,000.002,000.003,000.004,000.005,000.006,000.00
2E-12
Total Income
1.5E-12
0
1E-12
0.00
1,000.00
2,000.00
3,000.00
4,000.00
1E-12
-5E-13
Raw
Materials
0
5E-13 20
0
40
60
80
-1E-12
2E-12
Power & Fuel Cost
0
0 1E-12 50
100
150
200
250
-5E-13
2E-12
Employee Cost
0
1E-12100
0
200
300
400
500
-1E-12
2E-12
Other
Manufacturing
Expenses
0
1E-12200
0
400
600
800
-1E-12
2E-12
0Selling and Administration Expenses
1E-12 50
0
100
-1E-12
Miscellaneous
Expenses
400
0
Expenses
Residual Plot
Miscellaneous
Expenses
Residual
Plot
Less:
Pre-operative
Expenses
-1E-12
Operating Profit
Residuals
Residuals
Residuals
Residuals
Residuals
-5E-13
1E-12
Residuals
Residuals
5E-13
0.00
Operating Profit
Predicted Operating Profit
0.00
1,000.00
2,000.00
3,000.00
4,000.00
Total Expenditure
5,000.00
6,000.00
ministration
laneous Expenses
esidual operative
Plot
Expenses
1E-12
5E-13
0
0.00
1,000.00
-5E-13
150
Miscellaneous Expenses
Raw Materials
Line Fit Plot
1
0.4
0.6
0.8
operative Expenses
Capitalised
400
Operating Profit
3,000.00
Total Expenditure
1000
nistration Expenses
2,000.00
Operating Profit
Expenses
Line Fit Plot
Miscellaneous
Expenses Line
FitPre-operative
Plot
Less:
Expenses
Capitalised Line Fit Plot
Operating Profit
Operating Profit
Operating Profit
Operating Profit
Operating Profit
Operating Profit
300
Operating Profit
Predicted Operating
200
400
Profit
0.00 2,000.00
4,000.00
6,000.00
100
300
Operating Profit
Predicted Operating
Total
Income
0
400
200
Profit
0.00 1,000.00
3,000.00
300 4,000.00
1002,000.00
Operating Profit
Predicted Operating
Raw
Materials
200
0
Profit
0
20
40
60
80
100
400
Predicted Operating
Power
&
Fuel
Cost
0
Operating Profit
Profit
200
0
100
200
300
400
Employee
Cost
0
Operating Profit
Predicted Operating
200
0
200
400
600
Profit
400
Other Manufacturing
Expenses
0
Operating Profit
Predicted Operating
200 500
0
1000
Profit
400
Selling and
0 Administration Expenses
Predicted Operating
200
0
50
100
150
200
Profit
Miscellaneous
Expenses
0
0
0.5
redicted Operating Profit
Less: Pre-operative Expenses Capitalised
3,000.00
4,000.00
5,000.00
Total Expenditure
ministration
operative Expenses
Capitalised
Line
Fit Plot
Operating Profit
Predicted Operating
Operating Profit
Operating Profit
Predicted Operating
Profit
Predicted Operating
Profit
operative Expenses Capitalised
1
6,000.00
Net Sales
Other Income Stock Adjustments Total Income Raw Materials Power & FuelEmployee
Cost
Cost
5,485.37
59.14
14.03
5,558.54
3,546.80
72.87
211.15
4,609.38
59.01
15.68
4,684.07
3,043.29
56.54
177.49
3,772.91
58.24
27.25
3,858.40
2,438.74
45.47
164.51
3,421.23
82.72
19.62
3,523.57
2,138.69
51.48
158.71
2,779.32
54.82
-19.45
2,814.69
1,676.52
41
126.25
2,267.65
35.21
43.47
2,346.33
1,500.25
24.44
79.26
OP(forecast)
Net Sales
377.6318282
6000
366.0318069
6600
360.6975821
7260
850.7849282
7986
1707.026945
8784.6
OP(forecast)
Net Sales
372.8623628
6000
360.5059667
6600
351.1542186
7260
811.1673125
7986
1830.150139
8784.6
9663.06
Other Manufacturing
SellingExpenses
and Administration
Miscellaneous
Expenses
Less:
Expenses
Pre-operative
TotalExpenses
Expenditure
Operating
CapitalisedProfit
393.22
786.52
177.97
0
5,188.53
370.01
319.89
663.96
127.21
0
4,388.38
295.69
282.13
602.91
134.4
0
3,668.16
190.24
257.5
499.79
122.77
0
3,228.94
294.63
198.45
390.23
106.26
0
2,538.71
275.98
194.82
318.5
75.01
0
2,192.28
154.05