All reproduced from the article origanally written by Mr S.K.

Sagar Questions on some of the basic aspects of handicapping and rating and what are t he broad parameters to be considered in calculations to predict a winner. Accord ingly I am giving my views based on my knowledge of the subject .Experts who rea d this article may respond with their views and correct me if they like. A) What is meant by the term LENGTH and what is the time required to cover 1L : Length corresponds simply to the length of a horse. There are no statistical sur veys carried out to show what the average length of a horse is or what the avera ge height of a human being is. According to my knowledge the average length of a thoroughbred horse is about 2.70Metres (8.85 Feet) What is the time required to cover one length particularly at the finishing stag e? This varies a great deal, in a closely fought 1000m sprint (In USA they even have 400m races) in the highest class on an excellent track in good going this m ay take as little as 0.14 seconds. Tiring horses in a long distance race, back m arkers (no hopers) may take even more than 0.28 secs .An Average horse rated 72 on the Time form scale (will discuss this later) on a good track in good going i n a middle distance race will cover one length in 0.165 secs For calculation pur poses most people recommend a 0.2 secs per length as a standard yardstick. Never theless I take this figure as 0.18 secs. B) What is the effect of increasing the WEIGHT on a horse : Increasing the weight on a horse by 1.0 kilo will render a horse slower by 0.000 1D seconds, where D = distance of the race. Thus in a 1400 Meters race a horse w ill take 0.14 seconds longer than what it would have taken if he had carried 1.0 kg less weight. The effect per kg increase in the weight is even more pronounce d if the initial weight is in the range 60 to 70kgs and substantially more prono unced if the initial weight is greater than 70 kgs.Further some horses are more susceptible to weight increase and others (called weight carriers) are less susc eptible. C) What is `RATING` & How to determine the RATING of a horse: Rating of a horse signifies its caliber as a race horse. Standard rating system adopted In U.K. and many other countries is the TIMEFORM rating system and the rating po ints given are in terms of pounds by weight. Thus a horse`x` rated 5 points high er than another horse `y` is expected to run as fast as `y` even if carrying 5 l bs higher weight Provided other parameters are equal. Highest Time form rating given to date is 1 45 to the champion horse `Secretariate`.Indian rating system is about 30 points higher than the Corresponding TF rating .Thus a horse rated 110 points as per Indian rating syst em is Equivalent to an 80 points rating on the TF system. Thus all class V horses in I ndia rated Between 0 and 30 will get a negative TF rating and will generally not be permitt ed to race 1n a well recognized racecourse. I have developed a formula to determine the Timeform rating of a horse based on speed records for various distances giving due cognizance to the weights carried and to the fact that some of the records might have been achieved on an unusual ly fast track. First I give below the World record timings for various distances varying from 5 Furlongs(1006m) to 2 miles(3218m): 1006m: PROCREATE - 7 yrs, Weight 120 lbs, Track Hollywood Park, 1995- 53.79 secs (unusually fast dirt track)-on turf the record is 55.20secs held by CHINOOK PASS 1207m: G MALLEAH - 4 yrs,120 lbs Turf Paradise 1995 1min.6.6 secs 1408m: SOARING FREE 5 yrs, 126 lbs, Woodbine 2004 1 min 19.38 secs 1610 m : MR.LIGHT 6 yrs, 118 lbs, Gulfstream Park 2005 -1 min.31.41 secs

1811m: 2012m: 2213m: 2414m: 2816m: 3218m:

KOSTROMA- 5 yrs , 117 lbs, Santa Anita Park 1991 -1min.43.92 secs DOUBLE DISCOUNT- 4yrs,116 lbs,SantaAnitaPark-1977-1m57.4 secs WITH APPROVAL --4 yrs, 118 lbs, Belmont Park 1990 -2m. 10.20 secs HAWKSTER 3 yrs- 121 lbs, Santa Anita Park 1989 2m 22.80 secs PAPER JUNCTION- 4 yrs 123 lbs, Lincoln State Fair 1985 2m.50.4 secs. PETRONE 5 yrs, 124 lbs, Hollywood Park- 1969 3m-18secs

Next, by careful scrutiny of the above record timings (ignoring some freak runs ) and on the assumption that as the distance increases the timing for each 200m increases from about 11.5 secs at the 1000m stage to about 14.0 secs at the 3000 m stage(This range is for top rated horses increasing to about 13 secs & 16 secs respectively for zero rated horses) I determine the yardstick for a 150 points rating on the Timeform scale being the time taken `T1` by a horse rated 150 poin ts to cover various distances carrying 120 lbs(54.5kgs) on a perfect going with perfect distance suitability with no false rails etc etc as follows: Distance: Distance: Distance: Distance: Distance: Distance: Distance: Distance: Distance: Distance: 1000m Time T1: 54.7 secs 1200m Time T1: 66.4secs 1400m Time T1: 78.4 secs 1600m Time T1: 90.7 secs 1800m Time T1: 103.2secs 2000m Time T1: 115.9 secs 2200 m Time T1: 129.0 secs 2400m Time T1: 142.2 secs 2800m Time T1: 169.4 secs 3200m Time T1: 197.4secs

Next , I give below the formula for determination of the Time form rating of a h orse based on a particular performance (Deriving this formula is no big deal as only para `B` above is required for this purpose ) as given below : Let T = Time in secs taken by the horse. Let D = Distance travelled in Meters. Let W = Weight carried by the horse in kgs Then its Timeform rating = 2.2W + 30 22222 (T T1)/D EXAMPLES : A)MYSTICAL`S performance in the Indian St.Leger of March 2006 : Distance `D`= 2800m, Weight `W` =57.0kgs, Time `T` =2min 54.06 ecs =174.06secs Hence TF Rating = 2.2 x 57.0 + 30 22222 ( 174.06 169.4)/2800 = 118.4 B) MYSTICAL`S performance in his last outing at Mumbai (Dec 2006) Distance `D` =1600m, `W` = 62.0 kgs, Time `T` = 1min 34.6 secs = 94.6 secs TF Rating = 2.2 x 62 + 30 22222 ( 94.6 90.7)/1600 = 112.2 C) SOUTHERN EMPIRE`S performance in the Indian Turf Invitation Cup, March 2007 Distance `D` = 2400m, `W` = 57 kgs, Time `T` = 2min 28.06 secs = 148.06secs TF Rating = 2.2 x 57 + 30 22222 ( 148.06 142.2)/2400 = 101.2 D) BOURBON KING`S performance in the Poona Walla Breeders Million, Feb 2007 Distance `D` = 1400m,`W` = 56 kgs, Time `T` = 1min 23.76 secs = 83.76 secs TF Rating = 2.2 x 56 + 30 22222(83.76 78.4)/1400 = 67.5 E) SPECTACULAR BID`S performance at Santa Anita in 1980 Distance `D` = 2012m, `W` = 57.0 kgs (126 lbs),Time `T`=Im 57.8s=117.8 secs, Corresponding `T1` for 2012 m = 115.9 x 2012/2000 = 116.6 TF Rating = 126 + 30 22222(117.8 116.6)/2012 =142.7 F) SECRETARIATE`S performance at Belmont Park in 1973 Distance `D` = 2414m, `W` =57 Kgs(126 lbs) Time `T` = 2min24 s= 144 secs Corresponding `T1` for 2414m = 142.2 x 2414/2400 =143.0secs TF Rating = 126 + 30 22222 ( 144 143.0 )/2414 = 146.8

You can work out your own rating charts for as many horses as you like in the fo llowing manner : a) For a select few horses in races run in very good going won in near record ti mings determine TF rating as per procedure given above. b) For other horses determine TF rating by appropriate comparisons with horses i n a). For this purpose as far as possible closely fought races only should be co nsidered where horses appear to have run to their true potential. c) If a particular horse gets two different values x and y for its rating where x is greater than y ,then adopt 0.75x + 0.25y for its rating . d) Exercise your own judgement and adjust the rating suitably by giving due cons ideration of the reserve potential of a horse for example if a winner of a race was a trifle handy or if a losing horse was eased up by its jockey. You might ask why you should take the trouble to determine the ratings when its all given in the race book worked out by the official handicapper a deemed exper t in the line. To this question my answer is that the handicapper is perhaps bou nd by certain guidelines such as he can not give a triple or even a double promo tion to a horse based on its performance in a handicap race however great the pe rformance might be,as an example consider race no :84 (Mumbai winter) won by Def inite Spice in the lowest class(V) in 0m-59.58 secs over 1000m carrying 59 kgs a performance Worth 51 points on the TF scale (81 points on the Indian rating syst em) but the horse`s rating was increased by only 20 points from about 30 to 50 p oints on the Indian rating scale so that it was in the range 20 to 50 (class 1V) .It was no surprise when it won its next race (no: 108) in this class effortless ly by a big margin. There are many such examples. Besides there might be many of you whose judgement/expertise may be relatively better than the handicapper`s. I am giving below my assessment of the TF ratings of some of the highest rated h orses who have raced at least once in the Mumbai winter season : AGED 4 YEARS AND ABOVE: MYSTICAL : 114, HOLDING COURT : 104, SOUTHERN EMPIRE : 102, APERETIVO : 99, DEMOCRATICUS : 88, DIABOLICAL : 87, REJUVINATE : 86, FLASHING STAR : 84, OYSTER COVE : 84 DYNASTY : 84, AMAZING POWER : 82, BLUE RIBBON : 81, ATMOSPHERE : 80 , POWERTHRUST : 80 AGED 3 YEARS: BOURBON KING : 68 , OUR EXCELLENCE : 64, HOTSTEPPER : 63. RETRIBUTION : 62.5 , ASSERT THE RIGHT : 62.5, ALVARITA : 62 QUEST FOR CASH : 61, AVEC PLASSIR : 61, STAR OF CHINA :61 Add 30 points to match with the Indian rating system There are many many other factors that come into the calculations while determin ing the probable chance of a horse to win, some of them as far reaching as a hor se owner`s characteristics and some relating to the quantum of uncertainty that creeps in whenever there are wide fluctuations in the bookmaker s odds.However the most basic of all considerations is that the racegoers collectively lose about 25 to 30 percent of their total investments (in the form of betting tax and the club`s expenses in running the show)and so while you may win sometimes there is no way you can have a positive score line after a lifetime of racing , in fact a fter 200 visits to the race course the odds are 200 to 1 against your coming out with a positive overall score.But in between you`ll have all the thrills and ex citement several times .Horse racing is a very intriguing subject with an enormo us potential for entertainment but like any other form of entertainment you must spend for it.Besides most of your losses go to the Government, and so you might say that you are serving the nation while getting entertained.