Copyright © 2013 BetterBet Publishing

All rights reserved. It is illegal to copy, distribute, or create derivative works from
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 INTRODUCTION

Welcome to Racing Secrets Exposed.

When I first wrote this guide, way back in 2006, it was focused towards laying
horses on the betting exchanges.

The betting exchanges were still a relatively new phenomenon and there was
massive interest in winning money from laying horses.

However since then I've had a lot of questions from punters who are only interested
in backing horses and so I decided to write a new version that focuses on finding
horses to back.

First though, let me introduce myself and tell you a little how this all came about.

My name is Kristian Jackman, and like the majority of punters I used to lose a lot of
money from betting on the horses.

Sure I had winners but the losers were so numerous I was losing money hand over
fist.

My luck changed when I had a fortuitous meeting with a freelance odds compiler.

He happened to purchase his copy of the Racing Post from my friend's newsagents
and my friend put me in touch with him.

He agreed to meet for a coffee and we had a cracking chat regarding all things horse
racing.

In all honesty he was quite a peculiar man but he certainly new his onions.

He really opened my eyes to exactly how I should be reading form and made me
respect value over everything.

After our meeting I was buzzing and I wrote up all of my notes into a more logical
form.

Those notes became the basis for the first edition of this manual way back in 2006.

Since then it's been downloaded over 5000 times and I've had great feedback from
many, many customers.

I really hope you take the time to actually read this manual and put it into action.

Please don't let it sit on your hard drive gathering dust.

The first part of this guide is all about the Racing Post.
If you want to get good at reading form you can't rely on a regular newspaper.

You simply have to use a dedicated racing newspaper and the Racing Post is the
very best.

I'll show you how to study race cards and form with particular reference to the
Racing Post website (which is very similar to the print newspaper).

In the second part of this guide I'll go through the key factors of form reading you
have to study if you ever want to make money betting on horses.

I've included examples so you can see exactly how I go about this process.

I hope you enjoy reading it as much as I enjoyed putting it together.

Let's crack on.

 THE RACING POST

In order to study the form we will be using the Racing Post.

Although other papers include race cards in their horse racing sections they do not
contain enough information for us to carry out the necessary study.

You can either buy the Racing Post newspaper everyday or use their website. I
prefer the website just for convenience.

If you are picking your selections the night before then you will need to use the
website.

I imagine most people will be using the website and so I have included this section
which details how to navigate around it.

To be able to access all the data you will need to buy a subscription.

Don't worry it's very cheap and costs under 40p a day.

The website can be visited by clicking on the link →http://www.racingpost.com

 UNDERSTANDING RACE CARDS

A typical race card will look like this...

Notice I have selected the 'AT-A-GLANCE CARD' as I find it the easiest on the eye.

The other option is the 'Standard Card' which is more colourful but not as compact.

The very top of the card shows the information about the race itself starting with
date, time and course.

Just under that in capitals you'll find the name of the race. After that in brackets
you'll see the class of the race, the age restrictions and if it's a handicap race the
official ratings restrictions.

Under that is the prize money on offer, the number of runners, the distance and the
going.
OK now onto the main section of the card.

There are ten main columns to the card (NO., FORM, HORSE, AGE, WGT,
TRAINER RTF%, JOCKEY, OR, TS and RPR) and I'll go into more details on each
of them below.

NO.
This is the number of the horse on the race card (also shown on the horse's saddle
cloth).

Unlabelled column
These figures represent the finishing positions of the horse in its last 3 runs. A
dash indicates the start of the current season, bold type indicates a result on a
different surface to today's race, ex indicates an additional weight penalty to be
carried, d indicates disqualified.

HORSE
Obviously this is the horse's name. The numerical figure after the name represents
the number of days since the horse last ran.

Immediately next to that there may be a letter 'p', 'F' or 'J'. A 'p' simply means the
horse's last race was a pointer (a very low standard race not recognised by the
BHB), an 'F' means the current race is a jumps race and that horse's last race was on
the flat and a 'J' means the current race is a flat race and that horse's last race was
over jumps.

Now next to that (still in the HORSE column) there may be a 'D', 'C' or 'BF' in a
box. A 'D' means the horse has won a race over that exact distance before in its
career, a 'C' means that horse has won a race at that course before and 'BF' means
that horse was a beaten favourite last time out.

AGE
This is obviously the age of the horse (horses' birthdays are officially deemed to
occur on the 1st of January in the year of their birth).

WGT
The official weight the horse must carry (stones and pounds) in this particular race.

TRAINER RTF%
This is the name of the trainer. The number after the name represents the
percentage of the stable's runners that have run to form in the last 14 days based on
the Racing Post's Ratings.

JOCKEY
This is the name of the jockey riding the horse in this race. The number after the
name represents any weight allowances due to age or inexperience expressed in
pounds (to be deducted from the official weight).

OR
This stands for Official Rating and is the official handicapper's rating of the horse's
race speed. They are used to determine the weights horses will carry in handicap
races.

TS
This stands for Top Speed and is the Racing Post's own assessment of each
individual horse's race speed. The ratings are measured in pounds and aim to
remove the effect of the going on the race times.

RPR
This stands for Racing Post Rating and literally is the Racing Post's own rating of
the horse. The figure is expressed in pounds (lbs) so a horse rated at 125 is
regarded as 5 lbs better than a horse rated at 120.

That's the main race card explained.

Underneath the main card you will find the betting forecast for the race. These
odds are simply early prices (known as tissue prices).

Everyday all the bookmakers will send their tissue prices to the Racing Post and the
paper will take an average and these become the tissue price.

They are a good indicator but the starting price odds will often be different.
 UNDERSTANDING THE POSTDATA TABLE

Underneath the main card you will see several headings...

We are interested in the 'VERDICT', the 'COMMENTS' and the 'POSTDATA' tab.

The 'Verdict' is simply the Racing Post's brief summing up of the race, including the
main runners and the predicted winner.

The 'Comments' tab has a more detailed summary of each runner's career and
prospects in the race.

The 'Postdata' tab brings up a table which is meant to let punters read form at a
glance.

Once clicked on this will bring up a table which is a good indicator of the ability of
the horse.

An example of the postdata table can be found below:

The important thing we want to look at here are the columns after the horses'
names; TRAINER FORM, GOING, DIST.,COURSE, DRAW, ABILITY, RECENT
FORM.

TRAINER FORM
This is the Racing Post's own analysis of the trainer's current form.
One tick = in form
Two ticks = in very good form
? = form open to question
X =out of form
- = no runners last 14 days

GOING
This is the Racing Post's own analysis of the horse's ability on the relevant going.
One tick = proven form on forecast going or on easy/fast ground if going is
soft/firm
Two ticks = proven form on forecast going of soft/heavy or firm/hard
? = unproven on forecast going
- = debut

DIST.
This is the Racing Post's own analysis of the horse's ability to cope with the race
distance.
One tick = proven form around this distance
? = unproven around this distance
- = debut

COURSE
The Racing Post's own analysis of the horse's ability over the race course.
One tick = proven form on this course
Two ticks = two or more course wins
? = unproven on this course
- = debut

DRAW
The Racing Posts own analysis of the effects of the draw.
One tick = good draw
Two ticks = very good draw
X = bad draw
- = draw neither good nor bad

ABILITY
The Racing Post's own analysis of the horse's ability.
One tick = some form within last year
Two ticks = PM or TS rating within 7lb of PM top
Three ticks = PM and TS both within 7lb of PM top
? = last run more than a year ago AND no PM rating
X = no adequate form
- = debut

FORM
The Racing Post's own assessment of the horse's most recent form.
One tick = Some for within the last 60 days
Two ticks = PM or TS rating within 7lb of PM top achieved within last 60
days
? = last run more than 60 days ago
- = debut

At the very bottom of the table you will see POSTDATA SELECTION. This is the
horse which scores highest on all the attributes in the table.
 STUDYING A HORSE'S RACING HISTORY

To bring up a detailed history of a horse's races simply click on the horse's name in
either the race card or the Postdata table.

A new window detailed below with open up as below:

The page is divided into 3 clear sections.

The top section gives us simple information about the horse like name, age, owner,
trainer etc.

The middle section shows us the horse's history from a stats point of view.

The final section details every race the horse has competed in. It is this section that
is most useful to us as it gives us good information about the horse's abilities on
different surfaces and distances.

There are 8 columns here; DATE, RACE CONDITIONS, WGT, RACE OUTCOME,
JOCKEY, OR, TS and RPR.

DATE
The date of the race.
RACE CONDITIONS
This column tells us the track, the distance, the going and the type of race. The
distance is measured in furlongs (there are 8 furlongs in a mile). The type of race
tells us what class it is (For example C5 means class 5 etc.), Hc means it was a
handicap, H means it was a hurdle race, CH means it was a chase. The number at
the end is simply the amount of prize money that was on offer.

WGT
This is the weight the horse had to carry in stones and pounds. 9-2 means 9 stones
and 2 lbs.

RACE OUTCOME
This tells you the horse's position out of the number of runners, the distance it lost
(or won) by, then the name and weight of the winning horse. If you click on this
column it brings up the full race result with full Racing Post analysis. This analysis
can be a good source of information about how the horse ran.

JOCKEY
The jockey on board the horse

OR
Official Rating for that race.

TS
Topspeed for that race

RPR
Racing Post Rating for that race.
 QUICK GUIDE TO FLAT RACING

These races are run over distances ranging from 5 furlongs (5/8 mile or 1000m) to
20 furlongs (2 ½ miles or 4000m) and are started from stalls.

As the name suggests there are no obstacles in flat racing. The flat season runs
from mid-March to mid-November although flat races do still take place in the
winter.

Flat horses mature quickly and start running as 2 or 3-year-olds.

Flat races are either run on turf or All Weather (AW) tracks. The AW tracks are
comprised of sand and are a completely different kettle of fish to the turf tracks.

There are several different types of races on the flat:

Maidens: These are for horses that have never won a race before.

Sellers: These races are usually involves pretty poor horses. The winner of the
race is offered at an auction afterwards.

Classified Stakes: This type of race is for horses who have run 3 or more times
and won at least once.

Conditions Races: Once a horse has won a maiden it can compete in conditions
races. These races are more prestigious with better quality horses.

Listed Races: Once a horse has won a conditions race it can be entered into a
listed race.

Group Races: These are the most prestigious races for a horse on the flat. There
are three groups 1, 2 and 3. Group 1 races are the most prestigious and carry the
most prize money.

Handicaps: In handicaps all the horse's carry different weights depending on their
ability as assessed by the official ratings. The better the horse the more weight it has
to carry. Theoretically every horses has the same chance of winning.

Nurseries: These are handicaps for 2 year old horses only.

 QUICK GUIDE TO NATIONAL HUNT (JUMP) RACING

In National Hunt racing the horses are made to jump a number of obstacles
throughout the course.

The courses are at least 2 miles (16 furlongs) long. Jump horses mature more
slowly and don't run until they are 4 or 5-year-olds.

Jump racing goes on all year round but its main season runs from November until
the end of April.

There are 2 main types of jump race, each with different sized barriers.

Steeplechases (Chases) - In these races the horses are made to jump 'fences'
which vary in size. These are the biggest obstacles a horse will have to face. The
Grand National is the most prestigious steeplechase event in the U.K.

Hurdles - In these races the horses are made to jump over obstacles measuring
about 3 feet 1 inch in height.

In jump racing there are also handicaps and non-handicap races.

Like on the flat there are different types of races depending on the quality of the
field.

Maidens: As with the flat maidens are run by horses who have never won before.

Novices: These are for horses who have not won a race prior to that season. When
a horse wins a novice race it can still compete in novices for the rest of that season
but it has to carry a weight penalty.

Bumpers: Also called National Hunt Flat Races. These are special flat races for
young jump horses.

Point to Point Races (or Pointers) - These races are run over fences on
designated farmland throughout the country in the Spring and Autumn. This is
basically the nursery for young jump horses who will progress to jump over hurdles
and fences. We will not be looking at laying horses in point to point races.
 FINDING WINNERS

In this guide I'm going to explain how I go about finding winners at the top end of
the market.

I'm going to focus on favourites for a couple of reasons.

Firstly the betting market has done the hard work for us.

Favourites win a greater percentage of winners than other horses, so if you want to
pick regular winners it makes sense to start with them doesn't it?

Secondly I'm able to keep a high strike rate when betting favourites.

And a higher strike rate means one simple thing: regular profits.

I know a lot of punters struggle with losing bets so betting on favourites is the best
place to start.

However not all favourites are created equal.

Some are favourites based on hype.

The hype surrounding a horse can be heightened by several different factors:

1. The trainer

Trainers are always talking up the chances of their horses.

Some trainers are worse for this than others but I've learnt over the years to ignore
what a trainer says publicly.

I'm much more interested in what they say privately but unless you have some
serious contacts this is a very difficult thing to find out.

Horses that are trained by trainers who are considered the elite are almost always
over bet, especially if they're at the top in the betting.

For example, over the past 10 years, blindly backing all favourites would have seen
you lose around 6p in every pound staked.

But in that time blindly backing all favourites trained by Paul Nicholls (probably the
leading National Hunt trainer) would see you lose twice as much (around 12p in
every pound staked.)

The reason for this worse return on investment is simple...punters over betting his
horses.

On any given day they'll be horses that are favourites simply on account of who their
trainer is.

2. The jockey

Jockey bookings are also a major factor in where punters place their bets.

Don't get me wrong, a jockey has a massively important part to play in a race and
can be the difference between a winner and a loser.

But the major jockeys are almost always over bet especially if they're on the
favourite.

As an example let's take Frankie Dettori one of the most well known and respected
jockeys.

During 2012 if you were to back every favourite he rode you would have lost around
26p with every pound you staked.

This is solely based on hype and punters over-betting his runners especially when
they are at the top of the market.

3. Journalists

Journalists are also very much to blame for the hype surrounding certain horses.
It's practically their job to whip up excitement regarding every race.

They all have their own opinion that they like to expound, hoping they will look like
an expert if the horse ends up winning.

Tipsters in the newspapers have to tip a horse in every race. They obviously haven't
got time to study every runner in every race and as such often take just a cursory
glance at the form.

However these tipsters will often have an affect on punters' betting habits.

Punters often won't check it see if the horse is a decent favourite they'll just lump
their money on.

4. Recent Form

One final thing that causes punters to over hype horses is recent form.

Punters love nothing more than to look at the last 3 form figures for a horse and see
1's, 2's and 3's.

I have one rule...

Never back a short priced favourite to do something it has never done before.
(I don't mind deviating away from this rule when backing longer priced horses
though.)

I'm only interested in cold hard facts.

As far as I'm concerned there are four fundamentals in horse racing and for me to
back a short priced horse it must have proven form over each of them.

The reason is simple.

If I can determine that a horse always runs to par or better over each of the four
fundamentals of today's race, then I can assume it will again today.

And if the horse is a short priced favourite then I know I have a great chance of a
winning bet.

The four fundamentals are: Going, distance, class and course.

So how do you judge if a horse has run to par?

The first thing is to look at its finishing position in relation to its position in the
odds market.

Did it finish in the position it should have done?

Another layer I like to add, usually when dealing with a horse that was placed and
was expecting to place, is the distance it lost by.

Did the horse finish within half a length per furlong of the winner?

This means in a 6 furlong race the horse should finish no more than 3 furlongs
behind the winner.

In a 7f race the horse should finish no more than 3 ½ furlongs behind the winner.

Here's my process in a nutshell...

Look for a race where a short priced favourite has proven form over the four
fundamentals and where the second favourite has a question mark over at least one
of them.

I'll now go through each of those factors in turn and show you exactly what I look
for.
 THE 4 MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS IN FINDING WINNING BETS

GOING

The going simply describes what the ground conditions are like on the course. The
descriptions are as follows;

Hy = heavy,
Sft = soft,
GS = good-to-soft,
Gd = good,
GF = good-to-firm
Fm = firm
St = Standard (for All-Weather tracks).
Sl = Slow (for All-Weather tracks).

As far as I'm concerned the going is the most important factor in any horse race.

There is a big difference even between good-to-soft and good-to-firm going. And
there is a big difference between turf racing and AW racing.

Some horses can run equally well on any type of going/surface but many have a
preference.

A horse may be a top performer when the ground is firm but make it run on soft
ground and it could be very ordinary.

If I'm backing a horse I want it to have proven form over the going.

As I said a couple of pages back I use two 2 variables to judge form...

1. Did the horse perform as expected in relation to its position in the odds
market?
2. Did the horse finish within half a length per furlong of the race winner?

The half a length per furlong method was devised by a man called Van Der Weil and
is actually used by odds compilers.

If it's good enough for them it's good enough for me.

The reason I use these two variables is simple: it gives us a much more accurate
analysis of a horse's form.

For example let's say we're looking at a race on heavy ground.

And let's say the favourite has run on heavy ground before and finished 3 rd.

A lot of punters would quickly peruse the horse's history, see that the horse has
been placed on heavy ground before and assume the horse is fine on the mud.
But what if in that previous race on heavy going the horse was a short priced
favourite and finished well behind the winner?

For me that would represent an under par run and it may have been the going that
caused it.

A lot of punters claim that backing favourites on heavy going is unwise as the sticky
ground makes for more random results.

However there's nothing really in this claim.

The table below shows the results based on backing all favourites for the past 10
years in different ground conditions.

BETS WINS STRIKE RATE ROI

STANDARD 18141 6015 33.00% -6.73%
FIRM 2066 761 37.00% -4.46%
GOOD-TO-FIRM 20136 7046 35.00% -4.09%
GOOD 20798 6829 33.00% -7.32%
GOOD-TO-SOFT 11410 3805 33.00% -7.42%
SOFT 9699 3247 33.00% -8.80%
HEAVY 3691 1327 36.00% -6.72%

As you can see favourites have a better strike rate on the extremes of going: firm
and heavy.

But just looking at ROI you can see that you lose less money blindly backing
favourites on firm and good-to-firm ground.

DISTANCE

Distance is another vitally important factor in a horse race.

As a general rule horses start off in the sprints and move up in distance.

Some horses are good over a variety of distances others can have speed or stamina
issues and only have a chance at specific distances.

Journalists are always harping on about how a horse will benefit from a step up in
trip.

But as you've probably gathered by now I'm not interested in guess work. Just cold
hard facts.

As with the going I will only back a short priced horse if it has proven form over the
race distance.

The table below shows the ROI based on backing favourites at SP with the number
of runs a horse has had at that distance.

Runs at that distance ROI (based on backing horse at SP)

0 -7.30%
1 -7.17%
2 -5.36%
3 -4.64%

There is a clear correlation between the profits when backing horses and the
number of runs a horse has had at that distance.

If you're backing a horse that is running the distance for the first time then you're
simply hoping it will run well.

You don't really know how it will take to the extra furlong(s).

But if the horse has run over that distance a few times before and has run well, then
you know the distance will not pose a problem.

CLASS

There are different categories of race depending on the quality of the entrants.

It probably won't surprise you to know that favourites who are moving up in class
have a worse strike rate that those either staying in the same class or dropping in
class.

And if the horse is running in that class for the first time then it's even worse news
for backers.

What you may find is a horse being a short priced favourite in its first conditions
race simply because it won its maiden comfortably.

However it may well find itself up against horses who have also won their own
maidens.

As well as races being named like maidens and conditions they are also given a class
category depending on the prize money available.

The table below summarises the different classes for flat races:

FLAT CLASS SYSTEM

3yo+ 2yo 3yo+ 2yo
Cls 1 Group 1........................... £200k £165k Cls 3 76-95..... £12.5k £11k
 FLAT CLASS SYSTEM
Group 2.......................... £90k £70k Cls 4 66-85..... £8.5k £7k
Group 3.......................... £50k £40k Cls 5 56-75..... £5k £5k
Listed incl 96-110 hcps.. £28k £23.5k Cls 6 46-65..... £3.5k £3.5k
Cls 2 Heritage open hcps........ £45k - Cls 7 0-50....... incl regional bands A-D £2k
Nurseries........................ - £20k
86-110............................ £18k £13k

The table below summarises the different classes for jump races:

JUMP CLASS SYSTEM

Chase NovChs Hurdle NovHur NHFlat
Cls 1 Grade 1...................................... £100k £50k £75k £40k £25k
Grade 2 incl limited hcps........... £50k £32k £40k £28k £20k
Grade 3 open hcps..................... £50k £45k
Listed ........................................ £25k £20k £22k £18k £15k
Cls 2 Open hcps ................................. £23k £18k £18k
0-140+........................................ £20k £14k £14k
Cls 3 0-115/135.................................. £10k £8k £8k
Cls 4 0-100/115.................................. £5.5-10k £4.5-8k £4.5-8k
Cls 5 0-85/95...................................... £3.5-5.5k £3.2-4.5k £3.2-4.5k
Cls 6 HuntCh & NHF........................... £1.6 – 3.5k £2.5-3.2k

The lower the class number the better quality the horses are and the more prize
money available. Class 1 being the best horses and Class 7 the worst.

We're going to follow the same process that we did for the going and the distance.

A horse must have proven form in the race class otherwise I'm not interested.

When judging class I try to look for form in the same specific race type.

For example, if a horse I was interested in backing was running in a class 5

handicap I would judge the horse based on its form in class 5 handicaps rather than
all class 5 races.

COURSE

UK horse racing courses vary wildly in their nature and as such is a massively
important factor that needs close study.

I'm sure you've heard of the term “Horses For Courses” before. Basically some
horses will only ever run well if it is suited to the course.

You could literally spend hours studying a horse's form on different courses.

However I like to keep it simple.

I like to look at three different areas when it comes to course suitability.

 1. Size and running style of the horse

Some horses are large and natural gallopers with big strides. They are perfectly
suited to the flat, galloping tracks with easy bends.

They are not suited to undulating tracks as they can become unbalanced. Nor are
they suited to sharp tracks with tight bends.

On the other end of the scale are the smaller, well-balanced, nippier horses.

I've divided the UK racecourses into 2 types which will suit each extreme style.

Not all courses are listed below as some are considered fair tracks that don't favour
a particular style.

For example Chepstow is considered a galloping course but it is very undulating and
as such does not particularly suit the big striding horse.

The table below shows details which tracks I consider galloping and which are
sharp.

Galloping Courses Sharp Courses

Ascot Aintree (Mildmay)
Doncaster Bangor
Ffos Las Brighton
Haydock Carteml
Huntingdon Catterick
Newbury Chester
Newcastle Epsom
Nottingham Fakenham
Redcar Folkestone
Salisbury (up to 1m) Fontwell
Sandown Goodwood
Wetherby Kelso
Wincanton Lingfield (Turf)
Worcester Market Rasen
Yarmouth (up to 1m) Newton Abbott
York Perth
Plumpton
Pontefract
Sedgefield
Taunton
Warwick
Wolverhampton

If a horse is running on a galloping course I like it to have proven form on galloping

courses.
And if the race is on a sharp course I like it to have proven form on sharp courses.

2. Stiffness of the course

Some courses are considered a real test of stamina. These are usually the ones with
a long uphill finish or courses where the ground is very sticky.

The table below shows the courses where stamina is a valuable attribute...

Ascot
Carlisle
Cheltenham
Chepstow
Exeter
Hamilton
Hexham
Leicester
Newcastle
Pontefract
Salisbury
Sandown
Sedgefield
Towcester

If a horse is running on a stiff course I like it to have proven form on a stiff course.

3. Stiffness of the fences

The fences at the NH courses also vary wildly. Some are known to be easy whilst
others are renowned as being very tough.

The courses in the table below are those courses where the fences are known to be
very stiff...

Ascot
Chelteham
Chepstow
Doncaster
Hereford
Huntingdon
Musselburgh
Newbury
Newcastle
Wetherby

Once again if my horse is running over stiff fences it must have proven form
running over stiff fences.
 THE FINAL STEP – ELIMINATING THE OPPOSITION

Once I have found a short priced horse that has proven form over the four
fundamentals I then take a look at the opposition.

Now I want to keep this process quick so I don't look at the whole field – that would
take far too long.

I'm only interested in looking at the second favourite really.

Sometimes I look at the third favourite as well if it is a short price.

What I basically look for is the second favourite to have a question mark over one of
the four fundamentals.

The best way to show you how it all comes together is to go through a few examples.

So over the next few pages you'll find examples of my process in action.
 EXAMPLE 1:

At the time of writing Glen Moss had been backed down in price to being 5/2F and
seemed to be fancied by the market.
So that's the horse I'll be concentrating on.

The race is a class 3 event on good-to-firm ground, over 7f at Doncaster.

So let's see if Glen Moss has proven form over those 4 fundamentals.

(A quick note here. I don't simply rely on the postdata table as I find it's not 100%
accurate. I like to do my own research by looking at a horse's racing history myself.)

Here's Glen Moss' racing history...

1st Fundamental - Going

Glen Moss has raced on good-to-firm ground twice previously.

Here's a breakdown of the results (in reverse order)...

12th (joint 8th in the betting with 6 other horses) 8 ¾ lengths behind the winner.
2nd (when 4/6F) 1 length behind the winner.

So in its last race on good-to-firm ground it came 12th which is pretty much par.

It was 8th in the betting with 6 other horses so it was expected to finish anywhere
from 8th to 14th.

It finished more than half a length per furlong behind the winner but I don't use
that rule when judging the form of horses when they are far down the betting.

Glen Moss was 16/1 in this race and was not expected to finish that close to the
winner.

On its other run on good-to-firm it came second although it was an odds on

favourite.
However it only lost by 1 length which is well within the half a length per furlong
rule.

But it was obviously expected to win, was it the ground that made it under perform?

If so I would want to avoid backing this horse.

In this situation I like to look at the Racing Post's analysis of the race in question.

(To see this simply click on the specific race in the 'Race Outcome' column on the
horse's history page.)

The analysis from that second place on good-to-firm ground was...

I'm looking to see if the Racing Post highlights the ground as a possible reason. But
as you can see above it doesn't seem so.

So these are the only two races the horse has had on good-to-firm, but if we have a
quick look at the horse's racing history again we can see that it has run well on firm
ground before (coming second, one length behind the winner) and on good ground
before (coming second, just behind the winner).

So taking all this analysis into account I don't think the ground will be a problem for
the horse and I expect it to run at least to par.

2nd Fundamental - Distance

Glen Moss has raced over 7f 5 times previously.

Here's a breakdown of the results (in reverse order)...

4th (when joint 7th in the betting) 3 ¾ lengths behind the winner.
12th (when joint 8th in the betting with 6 other horses) 8 ¾ lengths behind the
winner.
2nd (when 2nd in the betting) 1 ¾ lengths behind the winner.
2nd (when 2nd in the betting) 1 length behind the winner.
1st (when 3rd in the betting) won by 3 ¼ lengths.

So Glen Moss has won over 7f before (when not favourite) and seems to run well
over 7f so the distance shouldn't be a problem.

3rd Fundamental – Class

Glen Moss has previously raced in one class 3 handicap before.

The result...
2nd (when 2nd in the betting) 1 length behind the winner.

So it performed exactly as expected.

The horse has actually been running in class 2 events and is now being dropped in
class.

Let's have a quick look at its record in class 2 handicaps...

4th (when joint 7th in the betting) 3 ¾ lengths behind the winner.
12th (when joint 8th in the betting) 8 ¾ lengths behind the winner.
2nd (when joint 2nd in the betting) 1 ¾ lengths behind the winner.
7th (when 3rd in the betting) 6 ½ lengths behind the winner.
3rd (when joint 2nd in the betting) 8 lengths behind the winner.
4th (when 2nd in the betting) 2 ½ lengths behind the winner.
2nd (when 4th in the betting) ¼ length behind the winner.

It has finished quite a way back in a couple of races but these were in high class
races with a lot of prize money on offer.

But overall it has performed OK in class 2 races, pretty much performing as

expected.

I see no reason why this horse would be outclasses in a class 3 handicap.

4th Fundamental - Course

Looking at the tables in the course section a few pages back you can see I consider
Doncaster a galloping course so I'd like to see proven form over other galloping
courses.

(Doncaster is not considered a stiff course and the race is not over fences so this is
the only course factor I need to consider.)

Glen Moss has run on galloping courses 6 times previously.

Here's a breakdown of the results (in reverse order)...

4th (when joint 7th in the betting) 3 ¾ lengths behind the winner.
12th (when joint 8th in the betting) 8 ¾ lengths behind the winner.
3rd (when joint 2nd in the betting) 8 lengths behind the winner.
2nd (when 2nd in the betting) 1 length behind the winner.
2nd (when 8/13F) 4 lengths behind the winner.
2nd (when 4th in the betting) ¼ lengths behind the winner.

Again it's pretty much run to par on galloping courses.

Most interesting is when it ran at Doncaster previously and it finished 4 th when joint
7th in the betting so it over performed considering its position in the odds market.

So I don't expect the course to prove a problem to Glen Moss as it has showed it can
run to form on a galloping course.

Overall looking at all the evidence for Glen Moss I don't think it will be caused a
problem by either the going, distance, class of competitors or the course.

So if it runs to form (as it has before over these fundamentals) then it has a great
chance of winning being that it is favourite.

But to really cement the selection I like to make sure the biggest danger (usually the
second favourite) has a question mark concerning at least one of the four
fundamentals.

The second favourite at the moment is Creek Falcon.

So let's take a look at his racing history...

You can quickly see that on the 26 th April 2013 Creek Falcon won over 7f on good-
to-firm ground at Doncaster (when it was a 6/1 shot) so it would have no problem
with the going, distance or course.

But have a look at the class of race it has run in.

Whilst the favourite has been holding his own on class 2 events, Creek Falcon has
mainly been taking part in class 5 events.

Today's race is a class 3 event and this horse has never raced in such a high class
race before.

It has raced in a couple of class 4 events so let's investigate how it performed...

13th when favourite (so a big under par performance)
4th when 5th in the betting (slightly over performing)

To be honest there's nothing there to show me the horse is ready to compete in class
4 events let alone a class 3 race.

For me the class is a definite black mark against this horse.

Let's look at all the facts...

Glen Moss has run to form previously over the going, distance, class and course.
Creek Falcon has serious doubts over his ability at this class level.

Overall I think Glen Moss is a solid selection and would be a bet at 5/2.

The result...

Glen Moss won easily by 3 lengths and it seems will be moved back up in class next
time.
EXAMPLE 2:
This is a class 6 at Catterick on good-to-firm ground over 5f.

The horse I'm interested here is Money Team.

Let's have a look at its racing history...

1st Fundamental – Going

Raced on good-to-firm once and won. No problems there.

2nd Fundamental – Distance

Raced over 5f twice.

5th when joint 5th in the betting

1st when 2nd in the betting

Again no problems here. Runs to form over 5f.

3rd Fundamental – Class

Today's race is class 6.

Money Team has never run in a class 6 race.

But it has won a class 4 race before so it should have no difficulties competing in
this class.

4th Fundamental – Course

If you look at the table in the course section a few pages back Catterick is a sharp
course.

Money Team has run on sharp course before...

Chester - Finished 5th when joint 5th in the betting

Epsom – Finished 6th when 7th in the betting.
It's run to form on sharp courses before and so I don't foresee any problems here
either.

Conclusion

The horse has run to form over all the four fundamentals before so it should have
no problem doing so again.

But as always I like to have a look at the second favourite before I place my bet.

The second favourite is Black Treacle...

This horse has only raced once before.

It has never raced on good-to-firm ground nor over 5f before nor on a sharp course.

It hasn't raced in a class 6 race before but it came 3rd in a class 5 race.

Is this a good result?

Well looking at that race in more detail Black Treacle was 2 nd in the betting and
finished a long way back from the winner.

I'm guessing punters are backing this horse hoping it will have come on for its first
ever run.

But as I said before I'm more interested in cold hard facts and I think the favourite
has an excellent chance here.

The result...
An easy victory by 5 lengths. The sign of a worthy favourite.
 EXAMPLE 3:

This is a class 6 race at Lingfield on good-to-firm ground over 10f.

Handsome Stranger is the one I'm interested in here.

Let's look at his racing history...

1st Fundamental – Going

Run on good-to-firm twice.

Won (when 2nd in the betting) and came 3rd (when joint 5th in the betting) so he
seems to like the ground.

2nd Fundamental – Distance

Run over 10f twice.

Results:

5th when 5th in the betting.

3rd when 7th in the betting.

Again no problems here, seems to run to form over 10f.

3rd Fundamental – Class

Run in 3 class 6 selling races before.

Results:

1st when 2nd in the betting.

2nd when 2nd in the betting.
4th when 3rd in the betting.

The class doesn't seem to be a problem for him either and he seems to run to form
in these type of races.
4th Fundamental – Course

I don't consider Lingfield to be particularly favourable to galloping or sharp horses

and the course is not stiff so the course should not be a problem.

In conclusion, based on its previous results, Handsome Stranger should run to form
and if he does he's in with a great chance of winning.

The second favourite is Delightful Sleep so let's just check his racing history...

A quick glance shows he has a question mark over the going.

Only two of its races have been on the turf and this was on good ground not good-
to-firm.

So the horse has no form whatsoever to check over today's going.

Furthermore its results on turf haven't been great...

6th when 6th in the betting.

4th when odds on favourite.

This would be a big concern for me as a backer.

It's also run very averagely over the distance as well.

It's not run a class 6 selling race before but it has won a class 6 handicap.

But it has enough black marks over the four fundamentals to make Handsome
Stranger a bet.

The result...

Well a poor run from my selection and it never threatened. It just shows you can't
win them all.

No matter how much form study you do you can't be certain of victory, even with a
short priced favourite.

I can take small satisfaction in predicting that Delightful Step wouldn't like the
ground and in the end it came way back in last.
 WHERE TO START

I don't recommend trying to go through a whole days racing.

It will take too long and I doubt you'll have the concentration to make good
decisions.

It pays to specialise when betting on horse racing.

It's better to be an expert in one discipline rather than a jack of all trades.

Your area of focus could be handicaps, or sprints or maybe just class 5 and 6 races.

You'll find if you focus you'll be better at judging the form and deciding whether a
horse is a decent bet or not.

When first starting out you might like to simply start with the shortest price horse
of the day and work up.

After all the market has deemed them the best favourites of the day.

Or you might look at which horses are the most napped by the daily newspapers and
start your analysis with those.

There are lots of different ways to use the information in this guide. I'll let you
decide which one suits you the best.
 GETTING THE BEST PRICE

This is one of the most important aspects of betting.

If you don't get the best price for your selections then you're throwing money away.

You really should have an account with all the best odds guaranteed bookmakers.

But more important than that is having a Betfair account.

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So if you don't have a Betfair account, you really should set one up right now.

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 CONCLUSION

I've hoped you've enjoyed this free guide.

In it I've taught a few techniques of how I go about picking short priced horses to
back.

Remember not all favourites are created equal.

The market gets it right about 33% of the time, but if you ignore the favourites that
are based on hype and just bet on the ones with proven form you can do better.

Remember make sure you're backing a horse that has proven form over the four
fundamentals: going, distance, class and course.

If a horse has run to par previously in those conditions then chances are it will do
again.

Of course there are more than four factors that affect a horse race (pre-eminent
professional gambler Patrick Veitch reckons there are up to 80!) but in my view
these are the four most important.

I'm currently writing an article in which I go into detail on a few more of these
factors.

I'll send you an email with a link to it when I've finished (probably in a few days).

Hopefully it will improve your selection method even further.

Good luck and I hope you've enjoyed reading,

Kristian Jackman