Strictly Orthodox

REPORT OF THE COMMUNITY POLICY RESEARCH GROUP
BOARD OF DEPUTIES OF BRITISH JEWS
Population Trends among Britains Strictly Orthodox Jews
Daniel Vulkan and David Graham June 2008
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... 3 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 4 Strictly Orthodox Births ......................................................................................................... 5 Stamford Hill Births ........................................................................................................ 5 Broughton Park, Manchester Births ................................................................................ 7 Total Number of Strictly Orthodox Births in Britain......................................................... 8 Haredi Schoolchildren............................................................................................................ 9 Stamford Hill...................................................................................................................... 9 Strictly Orthodox Marriages................................................................................................. 11 Migration.............................................................................................................................. 13 Population Size and Growth................................................................................................. 15 Children............................................................................................................................ 16 Long Term Growth........................................................................................................... 16 Strictly Orthodox Denominations ........................................................................................ 17 Appendix A Sources and Bibliography........................................................................... 18 Sources ............................................................................................................................. 18 Bibliography..................................................................................................................... 18 Appendix B Schools in Stamford Hill............................................................................. 19
Vulkan and Graham, 2008; Board of Deputies of British Jews
Executive Summary
Births
We estimate that 1,056 Jewish babies were born in Stamford Hill (London) and Broughton Park (Manchester) during 2007. In addition, between 250 and 350 other babies were born to strictly Orthodox Jews elsewhere.
Marriages
Since 1990 the total number of strictly Orthodox marriages in Britain has been increasing at an annual average rate of 4.0%. Of the 283 couples whose engagements were announced in Stamford Hill in 2007, 69% involved one non-British partner.
Population size
We estimate the size of Britains strictly Orthodox population to be between 22,800 and 36,400 people (mid-point 29,600). This is out of about 300,000 Jews in Britain. Strictly Orthodox Jews comprise one third (33%) of all Jewish children (under 18) in this country.
Annual growth rate
The average annual growth of Britains strictly Orthodox population from the early 1990s to the present (2007) has been at about 4% per annum.
Introduction
This report presents demographic and community statistics relating to Britains strictly Orthodox Jewish population and is the first time such data have been compiled into a single report. It should not be read as a definitive statement on the demography of this group, but rather a summary of what is currently known statistically about haredim in Britain.
Since there is no formal definition of haredi or strictly Orthodox, terms which we use interchangeably, we have where possible relied on self-definition and therefore only include individuals and households appearing in published datasets claiming to represent this group (outlined in Appendix A). We stress that there is no haredi community as such; rather this is an umbrella term to describe Jews who emphasise a strict adherence to Orthodox Judaism. In addition, the boundaries between this group and the rest of the Jewish population are far from clear cut; however we estimate that they represent between 8% and 12% of the 300,000 or so Jews in Britain. At younger age cohorts, however, the proportion is higher; we estimate that about a third (33%) of British Jews under the age of 18 are strictly Orthodox.
The haredi population tends not to be concentrated in the same Jewish clusters as the rest of the Jewish population although there is some overlap especially in North-west London. The largest concentrations are in:
Stamford Hill in North London which for the purposes of this report is defined as the five wards of Brownswood, Cazenove, Lordship, New River and Springfield in the London Borough of Hackney, plus the ward of Seven Sisters in the London Borough of Haringey.
Broughton Park in North Manchester incorporating the wards of Broughton and Kersal in Salford, and Sedgley in the Borough of Bury. There are also haredim in the Borough of Gateshead in Tyne and Wear, and in the wards of Golders Green, Hendon and Edgware in the London Borough of Barnet.
Strictly Orthodox Births

Circumcision data are collected annually by the Board of Deputies and used to estimate the size of Jewish birth cohorts. However, as noted in our report Community Statistics 2006 (Graham and Vulkan, 2007), these data do not distinguish between denominations. They do not therefore provide a means of determining the number of babies born in the strictly Orthodox community, making it necessary to turn to other sources. One method is to record the number of shalom zachar ( ) ceremonies in the community. This is a celebration which takes place on the first Friday night after the birth of a male child, and is observed customarily by Orthodox Jews of Ashkenazi origin. Notices of such celebrations in Stamford Hill are published in Kol Mevaser (see Appendix A). For various reasons (such as birth timings or religious holidays) not all male births are recorded as shalom zachars; however residual births are published in a separate section of Kol Mevaser.
Stamford Hill Births

Graph 1 shows the total number of shalom zachar ceremonies and other male births aggregated into 4-weekly cohorts for the period December 2006 (when data started being collected by the Board) to March 2008. Using these data as a proxy for strictly Orthodox male births, the average number of births per week during this 16 month period was 7.4; the total number of births for 2007 (January to December) was 376. Kol Mevaser also includes announcements of some female births. However, since the number of these is significantly lower than the number of male birth announcements, it is clear that the records are incomplete. Therefore the total number of female births must be estimated by imputation. Assuming that the male to female birth ratio is the same for the haredim as that of the national population of England and Wales,1 we obtain a total estimate of 14.5 births per week in Stamford Hill, and 735 for the period from January 2007 to December 2007.
Using the most recent ratio available (1.955 in 2006). Source: ONS, 2007 FM1
Graph 1: Shalom zachar ceremonies in Stamford Hill, 4-weekly totals,* December 2006 to March 2008
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 23 Feb 07 29 Dec 06 02 Nov 07 30 Nov 07 28 Dec 07 22 Feb 08 23 Mar 07 05 Oct 07 18 May 07 10 Aug 07 07 Sep 07 21 Mar 08 26 Jan 07 15 Jun 07 13 Jul 07 20 Apr 07 25 Jan 08 21 16 37 34 29 36 32 29 24 24 33 27 29 28 33 32 42
Source: Kol Mevaser, various dates * Bars show total births in the four week period up to the date shown It can be seen in Graph 1 that the number of announcements rather varies throughout the year. The dip in October 2007 we attribute to the High Holidays interrupting the publication cycle. Given that the strictly Orthodox population is growing, it is perhaps surprising that the data in Graph 1 show little evidence of growth over the period. One possible explanation for this is suggested by the marriage data summarised in Graph 3 on page 10. These show a decline in marriages in the most recent period, which will have had a knock-on effect for births. However it is also possible that this is simply a result of the shalom zachar data covering a relatively short period; records over the longer term would be required to draw more concrete conclusions about trends. It should also be noted that not all male births are necessarily announced in Kol Mevaser. For example, it is thought that a number of members of the Lubavitch community choose not to do so. In addition, the shalom zachar ceremony is traditionally an Ashkenazi celebration (and Kol Mevaser is published in Yiddish) which suggests that it does not include the Sephardi and Mizrachi communities. It is not known exactly how many male births go unannounced but it is unlikely to be a substantial number given the smaller size of these other communities.
Broughton Park, Manchester Births

Shalom zachars are also reported in Broughton Park in their Moidoos ( )announcement list. However, this is a relatively new publication (first produced in July 2006), and its coverage is not thought to be as comprehensive as Kol Mevaser. We therefore use a secondary source of shalom zachar data for Manchester, which covers a period of over a decade, namely figures that have been collated by Martin Stern2. These data are understood to cover the majority of the strictly Orthodox population in North Manchester, and are summarised in Graph 2. Graph 2: Shalom zachar announcements for Broughton Park, 1996 to 2007
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: Martin Stern Over this period, the number of shalom zachar announcements recorded has been increasing at an average of 5.5% pa. The most recent figure of 164 shalom zachar announcements would lead us to impute a total of 321 strictly Orthodox births in Manchester between January 2007 and December 2007.
We are grateful to Mr Stern for permitting us to publish these figures.
Total Number of Strictly Orthodox Births in Britain

In total these data sources suggest that at least 1,056 haredi babies were born during 2007 of which 30.4% were born in Broughton Park. This does not include any babies born to haredi Jews in North-west London or Gateshead; however, based on the ratio of the number of strictly Orthodox Jews in these two areas to the national strictly Orthodox population, we estimate that between 250 and 350 babies may be added to this total.
Haredi Schoolchildren
Jewish school enrolment data offer a useful indication of the size of the school-age population which in turn can be used to estimate the size of subsequent birth cohorts. Strictly Orthodox children tend to be educated in Jewish schools catering specifically to their religious needs. We assume that any child attending what we have termed a haredi school (see Appendix B) is from a strictly Orthodox family.
Stamford Hill
Some children attending strictly Orthodox schools in Stamford Hill may not actually live there; they may commute in from other parts of London. Equally, it is not the case that every haredi child in Stamford Hill attends these schools since some will attend schools outside the area. In 2007 there were 18 Jewish day schools in Stamford Hill catering solely for strictly Orthodox children. Table 1 shows the number of pupils enrolled in these 18 schools for the 2006/07 academic year, as recorded in the school census as at January 2007, carried out by what was then the Governments Department for Education and Skills (DfES). Table 1: Enrolment in strictly Orthodox schools in Stamford Hill, 2006/07*
Year Group Reception Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Age at Start of Year 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Boys 272 262 272 253 226 255 213 213 119 20 10 1 Girls 294 235 287 271 247 238 224 239 226 198 199 197 Total 566 497 559 524 473 493 437 452 345 218 209 198
Source: EduBase, DfES * See Appendix B for a list of the schools we include. The table shows an average of 500 children in each year from Reception (age four) through to Year 7 (age 11) inclusive. Although there are fluctuations from year to year, the trend suggests a growth rate of 3.3% p.a. with each successive cohort, an indication of rising numbers of births in the last decade.
Extrapolating from these figures, we obtain estimates ranging between 600 and 700 for the number of children born in the period from September 2006 to August 2007. This compares to our imputed figure for 2007 of 735 based on shalom zachar announcements (see above). According to the 2001 Census, the total number of Jewish children aged 0-2 in the six wards comprising Stamford Hill was 968 (ONS Table T52), implying an annual birth cohort of around 323. In the academic year 2006/07, these children would have been variously in school years 1 through 4. Table 1 shows a significantly higher number of pupils in each of these years; the difference in this case is almost certainly evidence of underenumeration of the strictly Orthodox population in the 2001 Census (see Graham and Waterman, 2005). It can also be observed from Table 1 that the attendance figures for boys from Years 8 through 11 show a dramatic fall-off to almost zero. This is due to boys leaving these schools around the age of bar mitzvah in order to attend yeshivot (seminaries for young, unmarried men).
10
Strictly Orthodox Marriages

The Board of Deputies collects data each year on the number of marriages which have taken place in synagogues in Britain. Graph 3 shows the total number of marriages taking place in strictly Orthodox synagogues by geographical area, for the 15-year period 1992 to 2006. The data show irregular growth over the period and also suggest that there has been a slight shift of the population away from London towards Manchester.3
Graph 3: Total strictly Orthodox marriages, by area, 1992-2006

300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
118 119 102 110 153 131 146 154 116 112 146 24 27 29 31 200 174 161 48 29 45 38 60 50 51 44 43 54
Gateshead Manchester London
50
180
Source: Board of Deputies of British Jews, various years
It should be noted that marriage-related data are also published in Kol Mevaser; however they are incomplete, and therefore have not been reproduced here.
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Graph 4 shows the long term trend for strictly Orthodox marriages. It is clear that the number of marriages in the community was fairly static in the late 1970s and throughout the 1980s. But from 1990 onwards considerable growth was experienced in what appear to be fiveyearly cycles. Since 1990 the absolute number of strictly Orthodox marriages has been increasing at an annual average rate of 4.0%. The data suggest strong population growth in the longer term as those marrying raise their own families. Graph 4: Long term trend in strictly Orthodox marriages, 3-year average trend line, Britain
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: Board of Deputies of British Jews, various years
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Migration
There is anecdotal evidence that the haredi population experiences relatively high levels of internal and international migration. However establishing the numbers of people involved in permanent moves is far from straightforward.
Data from the 2001 Census suggest that all areas with strictly Orthodox population clusters experienced net migratory gains in the year prior to the Census, especially in Salford (see Table 2). But these data do not include details of Jews who permanently left Britain, nor do they relate exclusively to the haredi population. Therefore we do not consider these data to be reliable indicators. Table 2: Total migratory movement for all Jews in Salford, Hackney and Gateshead, total number of individuals
Location Total in-migration (including international inmovements) 315 341 147 Of which from outside Britain 119 91 26 Total outmigration (not including international outmovements) 156 258 34 Net change (excluding international outmovements) 159 83 113
Salford Hackney Gateshead
Source: ONS, 2001 Census Table C0648 There are nevertheless other indicators suggesting high levels of migration in the haredi population. In particular migration appears to be closely associated with marriage, as noted by Holman and Holman (2002:29). Their survey found that 55% of respondents childrens spouses were born outside Britain. In addition, the shidduchim (engagement) announcements in Kol Mevaser indicate substantial migration among those marrying (typically in their late teens and early 20s).
13
Table 3 summarises the locations from which brides and grooms originated for the 283 engaged couples announced in Kol Mevaser in 2007. This shows that in 69.3% of all engagements announced, one partner was from outside Britain. This equates to 196 foreign individuals. Table 3: Stamford Hill shidduchim, 2007
Groom from: UK UK Non-UK Total Bride from: UK Non-UK UK Number of engagements 87 84 112 283 % 30.7% 29.7% 39.6% 100.0%
Source: Kol Mevaser, January to December 2007 The 2001 Census provides data about country of birth. Graph 5 shows that only around three quarters (75.4%) of Jews in Stamford Hill were born in the UK compared with 83.6% for the Rest of England and Wales. The figure shown in Graph 5 for Gateshead (73.2% born in Britain) disguises a significant difference between males and females. Whilst 80.4% of Jewish males in Gateshead were born here, this was the case for only 68.1% of females. Females also comprised a significant majority (58.9%) of the total Jewish population of Gateshead, and around 40% were aged between 15 and 19 (derived from ONS table S149). These statistics are explained by the presence of two seminaries in Gateshead, which attract female students from around the world.
Graph 5: Country of Birth of Jews in Stamford Hill, Kersal, Gateshead, and the rest of England and Wales
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Stamford Hill 9,600 Kersal 4,029 Gateshead 1,565 E&W less SO 244,734
75.4 82.9 73.2 83.6
Rest of World USA Middle East Rest of Europe UK
Source: Calculations based on ONS, 2001 Census Table S150

Vulkan and Graham, 2008; Board of Deputies of British Jews 14
Population Size and Growth

It is possible to estimate the overall size of the strictly Orthodox population, and provide indicators of longer term changes, using data from the directories published by each community. These are the Shomer Shabbos Telephone Directory (SSTD - Stamford Hill), North West Connection (North-west London) and North Manchester Connections (Broughton Park). As with other datasets these sources also have their limitations. For example, they are each published irregularly, they only contain details of those families who have chosen to be included, and in some cases may include families who would not necessarily describe themselves as strictly Orthodox/haredi. However in the absence of contrary data we believe these sources offer a fairly robust estimate of the population size (see Table 4). We are not aware of a similar publication in Gateshead and therefore have relied on the data from the 2001 Census for this area. Table 4: Estimated size of strictly Orthodox population in Britain
Area Year Total number of households 3,174 1,631 1,550 Average Household Size Low 3.4d 2.46d 4.15f High 5.9e 4.15f 6.0e Estimated Population Low 10,792 4,012 6,433 1,564 22,801 High 18,727 6,769 9,300 1,564 36,360
Stamford Hilla North-west Londonb Broughton Parkc Gatesheadd
2007 2006 2006 2001
Total Estimated Population Size
Sources: a - Stamford Hill, Shomer Shabbos Telephone Directory (SSTD); b - North-west London, North West Connection; c- Broughton Park, North Manchester Connections; d derived from the 2001 Census; e - Holman and Holman, 2002; f - derived from JPRs 2001 Survey dataset for London and the South-east. Table 4 sets out our low and high estimates of the size of the strictly Orthodox population in Britain. Our lowest estimate is 22,800 people and our highest estimate is 36,400 people. The mid-point therefore is 29,600 strictly Orthodox Jews in Britain in 2007.
15
Children
Using the school enrolment data published by the DfES we estimate that about two-thirds of the strictly Orthodox population (19,400 children) is under the age of 18 years. Strictly Orthodox children therefore comprise one third of the estimated total of 60,000 Jewish children in Britain.
Long Term Growth

The increase in the number of households listed in the Shomer Shabbos Telephone Directory provides an indication of the growth of the community in Stamford Hill. This is illustrated in Graph 6 below. Over the period from 1994 to 2007, the number of households increased at an average of 3.4% pa.
Graph 6: Total number of households listed in Shomer Shabbos Telephone Directories (Stamford Hill), 1994, 2003 and 2007
3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2,059 2,734 3,174
In Table 5 we have summarised the various growth indicators noted throughout this report. These suggest that since the 1990s to the most recently available data (2007), the strictly Orthodox Jewish population has experienced an annual growth of 4% p.a., slightly lower in London and slightly higher in Manchester. Table 5: Summary of growth rates noted in this report Growth rate Period Area Source % pa 3.4 1994-2007 Stamford Hill SSTD (Graph 6) 4.0 1990-2005 Britain Marriage data (Graph 4) 3.3 1994-2002 Stamford Hill Schools data (Table 1) 5.5 1996-2007 Broughton Park Shalom zachar (Graph 2)
Vulkan and Graham, 2008; Board of Deputies of British Jews 16
Strictly Orthodox Denominations

The strictly Orthodox community is not homogeneous. Amongst the Ashkenazim, who account for the majority of strictly Orthodox Jews in Britain, the main distinction is between the hasidim and the non-hasidim. The hasidim comprise a number of distinct sects. Amongst the non-hasidim, a distinction is often made between German and Lithuanian customs. The Sephardim are distinguished primarily by their country of origin. Estimates of the proportions of strictly Orthodox Jews belonging to these various sub-groups can be gleaned from data on strictly Orthodox schools in Stamford Hill (see Appendix B). Table 6 summarises the enrolment data for boys in Years 1 to 7 (not including the Side by Side special needs school) by denomination. Table 6: Enrolment of boys in strictly Orthodox schools in Stamford Hill, 2006/2007
Denomination Satmar Belz Bobov Vizhnitz Skver Lubavitch Non-Hasidic Total School(s) Talmud Torah Yetev Lev Talmud Torah Machzikei Hadass Talmud Torah Beis Aharon Talmud Torah Bnei Tzion Talmud Torah Chaim Meirim Talmud Torah Toldos Yaakov Yosef Lubavitch House School Getters Talmud Torah Yesodey Hatorah School Pupils (Year 1 to Year 7) 450 383 181 169 137 111 249 1,680 Percentage of Total 26.8% 22.8% 10.8% 10.0% 8.2% 6.6% 14.8% 100.0%
Source: DfES, EduBase
A second source of data which provides an indication of the size of the Satmar movement within Stamford Hill is a Satmar-only version of the Shomer Shabbos directory which, in 2000, listed 657 households in Stamford Hill. By comparison, we can interpolate Graph 6 to obtain an estimate of the total number of strictly Orthodox households in Stamford Hill at that time of around 2,500. In Manchester, fewer schools are clearly identifiable with particular denominations, and it is not therefore possible to use school enrolment data to estimate the relative sizes of the different denominations.
17
Appendix A Sources and Bibliography

Sources
Department for Education and Skills (DfES), 2007 EduBase database of educational establishments in England and Wales (http://www.edubase.gov.uk/), retrieved 29 October 2007 Kol Mevaser (Stamford Hill), various dates Moidoos (Broughton Park), various dates North Manchester Connections (Broughton Park), 2006 North West Connection (North-west London), 2006 ONS 2001 Census Table S149 Standard Table on Sex and Age by Religion, England and Wales ONS 2001 Census Table S150 Standard Table on Sex and Country of Birth by Religion, England and Wales ONS 2001 Census Table T52 Theme Table on Religion of all Dependent Children in Households, England and Wales ONS 2001 Census Table C0648 Origin and Destination of Migrants by Religion, England and Wales ONS, 2007 FM1 no. 35 Birth statistics, Review of the Registrar General on births and patterns of family building in England and Wales, 2006, London: Office for National Statistics Shomer Shabbos Telephone Directory (SSTD - Stamford Hill), 1994 Shomer Shabbos Telephone Directory (SSTD - Stamford Hill), 2003 Shomer Shabbos Telephone Directory (SSTD - Stamford Hill), 2007
Bibliography
Graham D and Vulkan D, 2007 Britains Jewish Community Statistics 2006, Board of Deputies of British Jews, London Graham DJ and Waterman S, 2005 Underenumeration of the Jewish Population in the 2001 Census, Population, Space and Place 11 (2) 89-102 Holman C and Holman N, 2002 Torah, worship and acts of loving kindness: Baseline indicators for the Charedi community in Stamford Hill. De Montfort University: Leicester
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Appendix B Schools in Stamford Hill

Strictly Orthodox primary / secondary schools, Stamford Hill
Name of School Beis Chinuch Lebonos Girls School Beis Malka Girls' School Beis Rochel d'Satmar Girls' School Beis Trana Girls' School Bnois Jerusalem School Getters Talmud Torah Lubavitch Boys Primary School Lubavitch (Ruth Lunzer) Girls Primary School Lubavitch Girls Senior School Side By Side Kids School Talmud Torah Beis Aharon Talmud Torah Bobov Primary School Talmud Torah Chaim Meirim Talmud Torah Machzikei Hadass Talmud Torah Toldos Yaacov Yosef Talmud Torah Yetev Lev D'Satmar Yesodey Hatorah School Yesodey Hatorah Senior Girls School
1
Funding Independent Independent Independent Independent Independent Independent Independent Voluntary Aided Independent Ind Special Independent Independent Independent Independent Independent Independent Independent Voluntary Aided
Age Group Primary / Secondary Primary / Secondary Primary / Secondary Primary / Secondary Primary / Secondary Primary / Secondary Primary / Secondary Primary Secondary Primary / Secondary Primary / Secondary Primary / Secondary Primary / Secondary Primary / Secondary Primary / Secondary Primary / Secondary Primary / Secondary Secondary
Gender Girls Girls Girls Girls Girls Boys Boys Girls Girls Mixed Boys Boys Boys Boys Boys Boys Mixed Girls
Enrolment 2006/071 395 308 760 139 420 162 130 130 85 28 220 239 204 271 155 528 569 228
Reception to Year 11
Source: EduBase, DfES
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REPORT OF THE COMMUNITY POLICY RESEARCH GROUP

BOARD OF DEPUTIES OF BRITISH JEWS

Population Trends among Britains Strictly Orthodox Jews

Daniel Vulkan and David Graham June 2008

Population Trends among Britains Strictly Orthodox Jews

Vulkan and Graham, 2008; Board of Deputies of British Jews

Population Trends among Britains Strictly Orthodox Jews

Annual growth rate

Vulkan and Graham, 2008; Board of Deputies of British Jews

Population Trends among Britains Strictly Orthodox Jews

Vulkan and Graham, 2008; Board of Deputies of British Jews

Population Trends among Britains Strictly Orthodox Jews