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    Message Text: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006

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    The document summarizes two recent developments in Bangladesh that have increased apprehension about the stability of the government. It discusses a meeting between President Moshtaque and MPs where several voiced criticism of his rule, and an armed ambush of military forces by a band of armed men linked to a former governor. While causing anxiety, the document says neither event alone likely poses a serious threat presently.

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    Message Text: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006

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    ARFoundation
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    The document summarizes two recent developments in Bangladesh that have increased apprehension about the stability of the government. It discusses a meeting between President Moshtaque and MPs where several voiced criticism of his rule, and an armed ambush of military forces by a band of armed men linked to a former governor. While causing anxiety, the document says neither event alone likely poses a serious threat presently.

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    The document summarizes two recent developments in Bangladesh that have increased apprehension about the stability of the government. It discusses a meeting between President Moshtaque and MPs where several voiced criticism of his rule, and an armed ambush of military forces by a band of armed men linked to a former governor. While causing anxiety, the document says neither event alone likely poses a serious threat presently.

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    254 views5 pages

    Message Text: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006

    Uploaded by

    ARFoundation
    The document summarizes two recent developments in Bangladesh that have increased apprehension about the stability of the government. It discusses a meeting between President Moshtaque and MPs where several voiced criticism of his rule, and an armed ambush of military forces by a band of armed men linked to a former governor. While causing anxiety, the document says neither event alone likely poses a serious threat presently.

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    Margaret P.

    Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006

    Message Text

    CONFIDENTIAL

    PAGE 01 DACCA 05088 210850Z

    12
    ACTION NEA-07

    INFO OCT-01 SS-14 ISO-00 EA-06 NSC-05 NSCE-00 INR-05

    CIAE-00 PM-03 DODE-00 /041 W


    --------------------- 062371
    R 210550Z OCT 75
    FM AMEMBASSY DACCA
    TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8427
    INFO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA
    AMEMBASSY COLOMBO
    AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
    AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU
    AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
    AMEMBASSY RANGOON
    CINCPAC

    C O N F I D E N T I A L DACCA 5088

    LIMDIS

    CINCPAC FOR POLAD

    EO 11652: GDS
    TAGS: PINT, PINS, BG
    SUBJ: SOME CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERE: UNHAPPY MPS, AND ARMED RESISTANCE

    1. SUMMARY. AFTER A PERIOD OF RELATIVE TRANQUILITY, TWO


    SEPARATE DEVELOPMENTS HAVE CREATED SOME APPRESHENSION ABOUT
    THE GOVERNMENT'S STABILITY. THESE DEVELOPMENTS ARE 1) THE
    OPPOSITION TO MOSHTAQUE'S PRESIDENTIAL RULE VOICED BY SOME MPS
    AT A MEETING WITH THE PRESIDENT OCTOBER 16; AND 2) THE
    SUCCESSFUL AMBUSH OF A SMALL MILITARY CONTINGENT BY AN
    ARMED BAND ON AN ISLAND IN THE BRAHMAPUTRA FOUR DAYS
    EARLIER. ALTHOUGH BOTH EVENTS HAVE CAUSED ANXIETY OVER
    THE GOVERNMENT'S CONTROL, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT EITHER BY
    ITSELF CONSTITUTES A SERIOUS PRESENT THREAT. END SUMMARY.

    2. MOSHTAQUE'S SESSION WITH THE MPS OCTOBER 16 HAD BEEN


    WELL-PUBLICIZED, AND WAS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CHANGES
    CONFIDENTIAL

    CONFIDENTIAL

    PAGE 02 DACCA 05088 210850Z

    WITHIN THE GOVERNMENT AND ENDORSEMENT BY MPS OF MOSHTAQUE'S

    Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006


    Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006

    ACTION TO DATE. NEITHER OCCURED. RATHER, DURING THE


    SEVEN-HOUR SESSION, TWELVE MPS SPOKE CRITICALLY. THEY
    REPORTEDLY TAXED MOSHTAQUE FOR NOT TAKING PARLIAMENT
    INTO HIS CONFIDENCE AND PRESSED HIM TO REPEAL THE FOURTH

    AMENDMENT TO THE CONSTITUTION AND RESTORE PARLIAMENTARY


    DEMOCRACY NOW. SOME MPS ALSO COMPLAINED OF HARASSMENT UNDER
    THE NEW REGIME AND OTHERS ASKED IF THE ASSASSINATIONS OF
    MUJIB'S FAMILY HAD BEEN NECESSARY. TO THE DEMAND THAT THE
    PRESENT PARLIAMENT BE RESTORED TO ITS FULL POWERS, MOSHTAQUE
    SUPPOSEDLY TOLD MPS THAT THEY HAD NO REAL POSITION SINCE
    BAKSAL HAD BEEN DISSOLVED, AND THAT HE COULD HAVE CHOSEN
    TO DISOLVE PARLIAMENT. IF TONE MEANS ANYTHING, THE
    SESSION WENT BADLY.

    3. THE RECENT REPORTS OF AN ARMED CLASH ON AN ISLAND IN


    NORTHEAST PABNA DISTRICT ALL CENTER ON QADAR "TIGER"
    SIDDIQUI, WELL-REMEMBER "FREEDOM FRIGHTER", ERSTWHILE
    GOVERNOR-DESIGNATE OF NEIGHBORING TANGAIL, AND SELF-STYLED
    "FORTHSON" OF SHEIKH MUJIB. THE DEPUTY COMMISSIONER OF
    TANGAIL HAS TOLD OUR BANGALEE POLITICAL ASSISTANT THAT A
    BAND OF SIDDIQUI'S FOLLOWERS HAS SINCE THE COUP BEEN
    OPERATING IN THE AREA. ON OCTOBER 12, THE MILITARY IN
    TANGAIL WAS INFORMED THAT THE BAND--ESTIMATED BY OFFICIALS
    AT 200 MEN--WAS HIDING ON A BRAHMAPUTRA RIVER ISLAND.
    A TWO-PRONGED ATTACK WAS ORGANIZED, WITH ONE PLATOON TO
    REACH THE ISLAND BY HELICOPTER AND ANOTHER BY BOAT. IN
    FACT, THE INFORMER WAS A MEMBER OF THE BAND, WHICH HAD SET
    A TRAP FOR THE MILITARY. THE HELICOPTER, ARRIVING FIRST
    AT THE ISLAND, WAS MET BY CONCEALED FIRE, AND A CAPTAIN
    AND TWO ENLISTED MEN WERE KILLED; THE HELICOPTER; DAMAGED
    MANAGED TO WITHDRAW. THE WATERBORNE PARTY, LATE IN ARRIVING
    BECAUSE OF POOR
    RECONNAISSANCE, ALSO WITHDREW ALTHOUGH ARMED
    COUNTRY BOATS ATTEMPTED TO ENCIRCLE IT. ACCORDING TO TWO
    RELIABLE REPORTS, THE MILITARY IN TANGAIL HAS NOW BEEN
    AUGMENTED CONSIDERABLY WITH TROOPS FROM PABNA AND MYMENSINGH
    DISTRICTS; IT IS NOW ESTIMATED AT BATTALION STRENGTH.

    4. COMMENT. THESE TWO SEPARATE DEVELOPMENTS, BOTH COMING


    CONFIDENTIAL

    CONFIDENTIAL

    PAGE 03 DACCA 05088 210850Z

    AT THE END OF A HOLIDAY PERIOD OF RELATIVE SERENITY WHICH


    BEGAN WITH MOSHTAQUE'S ANNOUNCEMENT OCTOBER 3 OF A RETURN IN
    1977 TO PARLIAMENTARY DEMOCRACY (DACCA 4860) HAVE CREATED UNEASINESS,
    AND MANY FEAR THE GOVERNMENT'S STABILITY AND EFFECTINESS
    MAY BE MORE APPARENT THAN REAL. IN THEMSELVES, HOWEVER,
    THE EVENTS ILLUSTRATE TWO UNSURPRISING PROBLEMS CONFRONTING
    THE REGIME IN BANGLADESH: HOW BEST TO ACCOMMODATE VARIOUS
    POLITICAL INTERESTS, AND HOW TO DEAL WITH THE ENDEMIC

    Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006


    Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006

    CHALLENGES TO LAW AND ORDER.

    5. THAT THE MEETING WITH THE MPS WOULD GO BADLY FROM


    MOSHTAQUE'S POINT OF VIEW HAD BEEN PREDICTED BY SOME
    OBSERVERS. THEY SAY THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS NEITHER THE
    STANDING NOR THE CLOUT TO IMPOSE HIS VIEWS ON
    HIS FORMER COLLEAGUES. SURVIVING LEADERS OF A DISCREDITED
    PARTY, THE MPS ARE A FEARFUL LOT. THEY DEEM IT IMPERATIVE
    THAT THEIR PRESTIGE AND POWER BE RESTORED IN ORDER TO
    PROTECTTHEMSELVES FROM THE VARIETY OF THREATS TO PERSON
    AND POSITION. NOT LEAST OF THEIR CONCERNS IS THE DESIRE
    TO BUILD A RECORD AS FUNCTIONING PARLIAMENT IN ORDER TO
    ATONE FOR THEIR PAST ACQUIESCENCE IN MUJIB'S DECISIONS AND
    TO PROVIDE THEMSELVES WITH AMMUNITION AGAINST POLITICAL
    OPPONENTS IN THE NEXT ELECTION. THERE ARE, HOWEVER,
    COUNTERVAILING FORCES. MOSHTAQUE IS REPORTEDLY IN CONTACT
    WITH OTHER POLITICAL ELEMENTS, BOTH TO THE LEFT AND THE
    RIGHT OF THE OLD AWAMI LEAGUE. BY AND LARGE THESE POLITICIANS
    WANT, NOT A REVIVAL OF THE AWAMI LEAGUE RULE, BUT A DISSOLUTION
    OF THE PARLIAMENT AND A CARETAKER GOVERNMENT, POSSIBLY
    WITH SOME ROLE FOR THEMSELVES. THUS, MOSHTAQUE IS IN A
    PIVOTAL POSITION AND MAY BE ABLE TO BALANCE THESE POLITICAL
    FORCES OR FALL BACK, IF REQUIRED, ON THE MILITARY. HOWEVER
    RESTFUL THE MPS MAY BE, THERE APPEARS LITTLE THAT THEY
    CAN DO, IN EFFECTIVE TERMS, TO OPPOSE HIM. HE MAY NOT HAVE
    WIDE SUPPORT BUT HE STILL HAS THE POWER AND WOULD APPEAR
    ABLE TO MAINTAIN HIS CONTROL OF GOVERNMENT.

    6. DESPITE THE ANXIETY THEY HAVE GENERATED, THE TALES


    FROM TANGAIL AND PABNA MUST LIKEWISE BE TREATED WITH
    CARE. WHAT MAY BE AT WORK IS A LARGER THAN NORMAL BAND
    OF DACOITS, PERHAPS PRESSED BY THE PRESENT GOVERNMENT'S
    EFFORTS AGAINST ILLEGAL ARMS. IF TIGER SIDDUIQUI IS
    CONFIDENTIAL

    CONFIDENTIAL

    PAGE 04 DACCA 05088 210850Z

    INVOLVED, HIS MOTIVES MAY BE BASED ON SELF-PRESERVATION


    AND HAVE ONLY A REMOTE POLITICAL COLORATION. MOREOVER,
    BANGLADESH AUTHORITIES HAVE BEEN PLAGUED SINCE INDEPENDENCE
    WITH ARMED ATTACKES BY SOMETIMES SIZEABLE BANDS OF MISCREANTS,
    POLITICAL AND CRIMINAL. NEVERTHELESS, THE INCIDENT--WHICH
    MAY NOT BE OVER--DEMOSTRATES THE FUNDAMENTAL WEAKNESS OF
    THE GOVERNMENT'S ABILITY TO DEAL IN THE FUTURE WITH ANY
    LARGER SCALE CHALLENGE TO ITS AUTHORITY. IN THIS INSTANCE,
    IT IS THE ARMY WHICH COMES OUT LOOKING BAD--ILL PREPARED
    IN INTELLEGNECE AND ORGANIZATION. IT HAS NOW RAISED ITS
    STRENGTH AGAINST THE TANGAIL-PABNA BAND TO 1000, AND WILL
    BE LOOKING FOR REVENGE.

    7. SIDDIQUI'S ROLE IS, OF COURSE, THE MOST INTRIGUING ELEMENT.


    WE HAVE BEEN TOLD THAT IF HE AND HIS FOLLOWERS ARE ACTING

    Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006


    Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006

    ON THEIR OWN, THEIR LACK OF POPULAR SUPPORT MEANS THAT OVER


    TIME THEY WILL BE UNABLE TO RESIST EFFORTS TO BRING THEM
    UNDER CONTROL. THE BIG QUESTION, THEEREFORE, IS WHETHER OR
    NOT SIDDIQUI HAS EXTERNAL SUUPORT. MANY BANGALEES ARE CONVINCED
    THAT THE INDIANS SUPPORT HIM; THAT HE FLED TO INDIA AFTER
    AUGUST 15; AND THAT HE IS WORKING WITH THE INDIANS AGAINST
    THE PRESENT GOVERNMENT. IF THIS WERE TRUE, THEN HIS
    POTENTIAL FOR MISCHIEF WOULD BE FAR HIGHER, AND QUITE
    OMINOUS.
    BOSTER

    CONFIDENTIAL

    NNN

    Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006


    Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006

    Message Attributes
    Automatic Decaptioning: Z
    Capture Date: 01 JAN 1994
    Channel Indicators: n/a
    Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
    Concepts: POLITICAL STABILITY, PARAMILITARY FORCES, COMBAT OPERATIONS, OPPOSITION PARTIES
    Control Number: n/a
    Copy: SINGLE
    Draft Date: 21 OCT 1975
    Decaption Date: 28 MAY 2004
    Decaption Note: 25 YEAR REVIEW
    Disposition Action: RELEASED
    Disposition Approved on Date:
    Disposition Authority: greeneet
    Disposition Case Number: n/a
    Disposition Comment: 25 YEAR REVIEW
    Disposition Date: 28 MAY 2004
    Disposition Event:
    Disposition History: n/a
    Disposition Reason:
    Disposition Remarks:
    Document Number: 1975DACCA05088
    Document Source: CORE
    Document Unique ID: 00
    Drafter: n/a
    Enclosure: n/a
    Executive Order: GS
    Errors: N/A
    Film Number: D750364-1035
    From: DACCA
    Handling Restrictions: n/a
    Image Path:
    ISecure: 1
    Legacy Key: link1975/newtext/t19751034/aaaabdxb.tel
    Line Count: 179
    Locator: TEXT ON-LINE, ON MICROFILM
    Office: ACTION NEA
    Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL
    Original Handling Restrictions: LIMDIS
    Original Previous Classification: n/a
    Original Previous Handling Restrictions: n/a
    Page Count: 4
    Previous Channel Indicators: n/a
    Previous Classification: CONFIDENTIAL
    Previous Handling Restrictions: LIMDIS
    Reference: n/a
    Review Action: RELEASED, APPROVED
    Review Authority: greeneet
    Review Comment: n/a
    Review Content Flags:
    Review Date: 08 JUL 2003
    Review Event:
    Review Exemptions: n/a
    Review History: RELEASED <08 JUL 2003 by KelleyW0>; APPROVED <12 NOV 2003 by greeneet>
    Review Markings:

    Margaret P. Grafeld
    Declassified/Released
    US Department of State
    EO Systematic Review
    06 JUL 2006

    Review Media Identifier:


    Review Referrals: n/a
    Review Release Date: n/a
    Review Release Event: n/a
    Review Transfer Date:
    Review Withdrawn Fields: n/a
    Secure: OPEN
    Status: NATIVE
    Subject: SOME CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERE: UNHAPPY MPS, AND ARMED RESISTANCE
    TAGS: PINT, PINS, BG
    To: STATE
    Type: TE
    Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006

    Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006

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